Open thread: Polls close in NY-20; Update: Murphy by 65 votes? Update: Thousands of absentees
posted at 9:28 pm on March 31, 2009 by Allahpundit
The boss is spot on: If we lose, it means nothing, and if we win, it means everything. This is Gillibrand’s district, which used to be solid red until she stole a victory there a few years ago by pretending to be a Blue Dog. The question is whether bailout/stimulus fatigue will drive it back into our column or whether The One — who finally endorsed the Democrat a few days ago — can keep it blue. More background here from MKH, noting that Murphy is now a slight favorite to win after trailing early on by 16 points. Jim Tedisco, the Republican, tried to make up the difference yesterday by campaigning through the night. It feels like Groundhog Day at this point. Will the GOP see its shadow or we will have six more years of political winter?
I don’t want to get people too excited, but if Tedisco pulls this out we might just be in for a humpbot cameo.
Update: Live results here. With 206 of 610 precincts reporting, Tedisco leads by four.
Update: Dave Weigel snarks, “Jim Tedisco’s ability to blow a 20-point lead proves that the GOP is back, baby.”
Update: With 505 of 610 precincts reporting, it’s Tedisco by … less than one percent.
Update: With all 610 precincts reporting, it’s Murphy 77,344, Tedisco 77,279. Are there 66 absentee ballots out there for the GOP? Should only take us a few weeks and, perhaps, a long court battle to find out!
Needless to say, there shall be no humpbot tonight.
Update: There won’t be a winner for a long, long time.
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Murphy had 77,344 votes to Tedisco’s 77,279. Somewhere between 6,000 and 10,000 military and absentee ballots remain uncounted, according to the Associated Press, and overseas absentee ballots will continue be accepted until April 13. In short, no winner will be declared any time soon.
Blowback
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Acorn must be busy stuffing ballot boxers, car trunks, closets and breakrooms in anticipation of a recount.
I sure hope they used butterfly ballots in NY as it worked so well for AlGored
dhunter on March 31, 2009 at 9:56 PM
My victory Royal Dulton cup,awaits its fresh brewed tea,
to savior the win!
canopfor on March 31, 2009 at 9:56 PM
They should stagger congressional elections so we can do this every month.
I like the drama.
Nessuno on March 31, 2009 at 9:56 PM
tedisco by 1000,
rob verdi on March 31, 2009 at 9:56 PM
Tedisco still has alot of votes in Saratoga, the biggest population and he leads by almost 1000.
Warm work for a “safe district” but I’ll take it.
jjshaka on March 31, 2009 at 9:56 PM
How clever you are.
amerpundit on March 31, 2009 at 9:57 PM
Columbia has a lot to go. So does Saratoga which is going 55-45 Tedisco.
Chekote on March 31, 2009 at 9:57 PM
GOP, what exactly is that, when the U.S. is going to heck in a hand basket, does it really matter? Who cares who wins and the GOP is not the savor although I wish is was.
foxone on March 31, 2009 at 9:57 PM
Three options here, a solid win for Tedisco says that the party ID numbers mean something again and the GOP registration advantage in blue dog counties matter. Tedisco barely wins indicated that blue dog candidates are still viable, if not as strong as they were in 2006 and 2008. Murphy wins and the GOP is f*cked.
DeathToMediaHacks on March 31, 2009 at 9:57 PM
505/610 precincts reporting
Dem 62,811
Repub 63,923
Enoxo on March 31, 2009 at 9:57 PM
Man this is a nail biter.
DeathToMediaHacks on March 31, 2009 at 9:57 PM
496 of 610 precincts in and Tedisco is up by 1000.
Murphy better hope that he pulls in a lot more votes from the remaining 38 precincts in Columbia or Tedisco will pull this one off.
(Tedisco’s currently leading in most of the areas with precincts still to be reported, so if that holds up he’s likely to win.)
teke184 on March 31, 2009 at 9:58 PM
minnesota redux
Chiasmos on March 31, 2009 at 9:58 PM
Keep trying my little Dhimmiecrat. Keep trying.
18-1 on March 31, 2009 at 9:58 PM
Nessuno – in fact, with 435 C-critters, we could have an election every day, with seats to spare.
CK MacLeod on March 31, 2009 at 9:58 PM
Will they count the Military votes this time………?
Seven Percent Solution on March 31, 2009 at 9:58 PM
That would be the situation.
progressoverpeace on March 31, 2009 at 9:59 PM
Can you imagine Steele right now? He must be a nervous wreck.
Chekote on March 31, 2009 at 9:59 PM
If the Republicans win it will be great, but the fact that it is this close is not good. Clear message to the other Republicans to change their ways and become conservative again. Tedisco’s problem was that he dissed Rush.
suzyk on March 31, 2009 at 9:59 PM
Looks like it’s heading for a recount. Once they start finding the ‘missing ballots’ in an Acorn staff workers car, Murphy wins.
AUINSC on March 31, 2009 at 9:59 PM
It’s down to Columbia (Murphy 56-44, 38 precincts left), Delaware (Tedisco 53-47, 24 precincts left), and Saratoga (Tedisco 55-45, 43 precincts left).
teke184 on March 31, 2009 at 9:59 PM
I love the smell of enlightened good sportmanship in the morning.
johnsteele on March 31, 2009 at 9:59 PM
GOP is all ready Fuged, and they did it to themselfs.
foxone on March 31, 2009 at 9:59 PM
Chiasmos on March 31, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Damn I hope nobody is driving around with ballots in the trunks of their cars…
canditaylor68 on March 31, 2009 at 10:00 PM
I’m thinking we’d have to go to 1-year terms for the sake of the electoral excitement – either that or add seats according to population according to the original Constitutional formula.
CK MacLeod on March 31, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Here is my way to have more tracable elections.
1) All voting on scan-tron sheets (fill in the oval)
2) When you submit your ballot the machine reader spits out a receipt with a unique ID on it and the ballot.
3) 24 hours after the election (at the latest), you can type in your unique ID to see how the state has read your ballot.
4) If you want to protest your ballot, bring in your receipt and the gov’t can dig out your ballot for your contest.
WashJeff on March 31, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Only the Democrat ones and Republicans will agree,
in the spirit of Bi-Partisanship of course!
dhunter on March 31, 2009 at 10:00 PM
If the trends continue, what happens in Columbia would be offset by Delaware, which means it come down to Saratoga, which looks good so far for Tedisco.
Wethal on March 31, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Man this is a nail biter.
DeathToMediaHacks
Why are you even here? Go back to the Daily Kos where you belong.
wargamer6 on March 31, 2009 at 10:01 PM
Ha. It would be funny if it wasn’t true… Actually, though, Acorn is probably not extremely welcome in these parts of NY…
Upstater85 on March 31, 2009 at 10:01 PM
You think they’re waiting for results elsewhere in the state to determine what they need from Columbia?
CK MacLeod on March 31, 2009 at 10:01 PM
LOL…translation: I’ll do my best to make a Republican win look insignificant or easily explained away; if the Democrats win, it’s because THE MIGHTY LEFT IS UNSTOPPABLE!!!!!!
It’s the same story in presidential elections.
ddrintn on March 31, 2009 at 10:01 PM
I know, I was being sarcastic. You’d think they could’ve come up with a better insult by now.
amerpundit on March 31, 2009 at 10:02 PM
Yep, looks like that lead might stick for Tedesco, which means Steele isn’t going anywhere! Yay(?)
Proud Rino on March 31, 2009 at 10:03 PM
You think they’re waiting for results elsewhere in the district to determine what they need from Columbia? Could be some, ahem, unusual voter enthusiasm reflected in those later returns, I’m thinking.
CK MacLeod on March 31, 2009 at 10:03 PM
Please G-d, no more recounts!
Jim-Rose on March 31, 2009 at 10:03 PM
Just shows that a lot of “hope and change” people, after two months, are still plugging for “hope and change”. Man, the downer these people will have to face in 6 months to a year. Of course the ‘die-hards’ will still keep plugging on. Their not called “Obamabots” for nothing.
GarandFan on March 31, 2009 at 10:03 PM
You know, I have always found it amazing that the same states that can run hundreds of billions of dollars in lotteries, without any problems for years, cannot run simple elections every so often. It’s stunning.
progressoverpeace on March 31, 2009 at 10:03 PM
Doesn’t matter whether they are welcome or not…Dem Judges will decide the matter if it’s close…and it will be at this point.
AUINSC on March 31, 2009 at 10:03 PM
Reminds me of some fool who always started his speeches saying;
Seven Percent Solution on March 31, 2009 at 10:04 PM
I am not hoping for a Republican “surge” in 2010. The democrats need to own the currency crisis.
Theworldisnotenough on March 31, 2009 at 10:04 PM
ddrintn on March 31, 2009 at 10:04 PM
I hope the farmers the thinkers and the knowers came out in droves. While Tedisco is not the best they could do, much better than handing the alternative to the ones that crave.
seesalrun on March 31, 2009 at 10:05 PM
I also like the idea of a running referendum on Congress!
INC on March 31, 2009 at 10:05 PM
Any NY’ers have info on Delaware County?
SouthernGent on March 31, 2009 at 9:37 PM
You must be thinking of some other county. Delaware County in New York is one of the most rural counties in New York State. The only college there is a two year tech school. Only about 50,000 people in the whole county.
Delaware County is pretty reliably Republican, usually. There are some transplants from NYC with vacation homes, however. But even they may be more conservative than your average NYC resident. Some great trout fishing there. Trout season starts tomorrow-I hope that doesn’t keep any Republicans away from the polls.
Dreadnought on March 31, 2009 at 10:06 PM
Oops…sorry for the reposting…the site was hanging there.
ddrintn on March 31, 2009 at 10:06 PM
So the moonbat.org trolls actually believe that we’re not on to their tactics.. LOL
Ann NY on March 31, 2009 at 10:06 PM
Jesus Christ – WHy are there 62,811 idiots? Don’t they get it yet???
izoneguy on March 31, 2009 at 10:07 PM
anyone know why the vote and precinct count moves down once in a while?
Chiasmos on March 31, 2009 at 10:08 PM
Steele Rap
Chekote on March 31, 2009 at 10:08 PM
534/610 precincts reporting
Repub 68,421
Dem 67,070
Enoxo on March 31, 2009 at 10:09 PM
Tedisco up by 1400 now
doug1981 on March 31, 2009 at 10:09 PM
we like to call that the “revolving morgue” technique in action…
sven10077 on March 31, 2009 at 10:09 PM
So rethuglicans actually believe they have a shot at this seat LOL
nice343 on March 31, 2009 at 9:52 PM
“Rethuglicans”…heh, haven’t heard that one in a while. Brings tears to my eyes as I remember the good ol’ days.
Bishop on March 31, 2009 at 10:09 PM
67,070 to 68,421 now, Tedisco by 1351 so far
Sekhmet on March 31, 2009 at 10:09 PM
Not as long as there are people more successful then them.
lowandslow on March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM
There might not be an electoral result tonight. Apparently there are thousands of absentee ballots.
amerpundit on March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM
almost done, Tedisco by 100. Looks like a recount no matter what.
rob verdi on March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM
Presidente Pinnochio told them yesterday he would guarantee their warranties on their cars and today that he would make the payments for them if they didn’t want to work.
dhunter on March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM
The good old days of 2004 election
blatantblue on March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM
+100
HornetSting on March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM
When I look at “National Polls” I have no faith in any numbers anymore. You gotta go with gut now people.
I am not hoping for a Republican “surge” in 2010. The democrats need to own the currency crisis.
Theworldisnotenough on March 31, 2009 at 10:04 PM
If I didn’t think it would lead us to the Point of No Return I would happily agree. But I understand the sentiment.
seesalrun on March 31, 2009 at 10:10 PM
Nerve wracking this vote count is.
jencab on March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Geez…only 76 out of 610 precincts to go, and still less than a 1% spread.
AUINSC on March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM
534/610 precincts
D= 67,070
R= 68,421
10:04 PM EST
Loxodonta on March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Columbia votes came in. OUCH.
KingGold on March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM
And that’s just the ones that have already been filled out!
CK MacLeod on March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Bet’ya acorn is showing up.
christene on March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Total 588/610 73,421
50% 73,523
50%
Sekhmet on March 31, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Yup. I think they were looking for absentee balots. Nod. Nod. Wink. Wink.
Loxodonta on March 31, 2009 at 10:12 PM
Tedisco may have this thing…
Repurblican on March 31, 2009 at 10:12 PM
Gawd, I knew when Columbia started coming in it would be bad.
Too early to say but it looks like this thing is going for a recount.
Nessuno on March 31, 2009 at 10:12 PM
Almost all of Columbia’s remaining precincts have reported and Tedisco still has a lead of about 102.
Once Saratoga and Delaware finish reporting, he’ll be declared the winner for the time being, before the inevitable call for a recount.
teke184 on March 31, 2009 at 10:12 PM
Here comes the juice! Time to throw in a few hundred Dem ballots to decide this one.
alflauren on March 31, 2009 at 10:12 PM
we need “Walnut” the GOP version…
sven10077 on March 31, 2009 at 10:12 PM
588/610 precincts reporting
Repub 73,523
Dem 73,421
It’s tightening again as some Columbia precincts come in. There’s 8 left remaining.
Enoxo on March 31, 2009 at 10:13 PM
Apparently Columbia was waiting to see how many votes Murphy needed.
Looks like a recount-sigh!
jjshaka on March 31, 2009 at 10:13 PM
588/610 precincts
D= 73,421
R= 73,523
10:10PM ET
Loxodonta on March 31, 2009 at 10:13 PM
Have to agree with Dave Weigel … doesn’t look too much like New Yorker’s are much fatigued of Obama here – this is too close for a safe Republican district.
Oh well … we still have not hit rock bottom so – not really expecting the bounce up just yet.
HondaV65 on March 31, 2009 at 10:13 PM
OK, put a damn nail in your knee, absentee means voted early which should mean precounted and sorted and tallied prior. RIGHT? What the hell.
seesalrun on March 31, 2009 at 10:13 PM
591/610 precincts reporting
Repub 74,251
Dem 74,221
Enoxo on March 31, 2009 at 10:14 PM
Yes my first humpbot!!!! I’m SO stoked!
FontanaConservative on March 31, 2009 at 10:14 PM
Where are you getting the stats?
ctmom on March 31, 2009 at 10:14 PM
74221 to 74251
Sekhmet on March 31, 2009 at 10:14 PM
30 frickin’ votes… bye bye miss american pie…
phreshone on March 31, 2009 at 10:14 PM
Why does it always seem that Democrat precincts come in near the end, and in bunches?
18-1 on March 31, 2009 at 10:14 PM
HondaV65 on March 31, 2009 at 10:13 PM
Look, I know this was a Repub district once upon a time, but they’re running to replace a D who won in Nov by 20%. How does that equate with a “safe” Republican district?
CK MacLeod on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
Wish it were true…I think he’ll pull out a slim majority…unfortunately, too slim. Since the Dems are the masters of vote fraud, they’ll easily find the ballots to put it away for their guy.
AUINSC on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
Returns
Wethal on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
At which time there will be loads of votes for Murphy appearing from the darnedest places…
ddrintn on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
Saratoga counted just added some more back to Tedisco. Not added in the full count yet.
Loxodonta on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
Safe? Gillibrand won by 20 points.
Chekote on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
I like it. Walnut. Sign me up.
seesalrun on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
I know one guy who is gonna lose tonight-
Steele.
jjshaka on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
how long will those last 8 in columbia cty hold out reporting… rigging ballots as we speak
phreshone on March 31, 2009 at 10:15 PM
Votes don’t count, counters count….
-J. Stalin
sven10077 on March 31, 2009 at 10:16 PM
Saratoga needs to wait until Columbia has fully reported. That’s how the Dems do it.
Chekote on March 31, 2009 at 10:16 PM
Tedisco by 30
rob verdi on March 31, 2009 at 10:16 PM
Coleman is ahead by 30 votes. Er, I mean Tedisco.
forest on March 31, 2009 at 10:16 PM
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