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Gird your loins: North Korea stacking long-range missile on launchpad

posted at 7:14 pm on March 25, 2009 by Allahpundit
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Another missile test in the guise of a satellite launch, a la Iran’s fireworks last month, but with the stakes much higher. The regime’s less predictable; the missile is longer range; and the chances of a regional war being touched off by a misfire are greater.

Other than that, nothing to worry about.

The launch has drawn concern from the United States and Asian countries because the same technology used to launch a satellite can be used to launch ballistic missiles and would amount to a test of North Korea’s ability to reach the United States with a ballistic missile.

One US official says that North Korea appears to have set up two stages of a three stage Taepodong 2 missile at the Musudan Ni launch facility located on the country’s northeast coast…

The State Department and regional partners have stated that the launch of any missile, even the launch of a satellite, is a violation of a United Nations Security Council resolution that North Korea from engaging in ballistic missile activity…

Admiral Timothy Keating, who heads US Pacific Command, told a congressional panel yesterday that the US military is ready for a North Korean launch.

Via Closing Velocity, North Korea says it’ll regard a rocket intercept as an act of war but Japan has no choice except to prepare one. The One certainly isn’t going to intercept it unless it’s absolutely necessary: Not only would it put us on the brink but it’d demonstrate the utility of that missile defense system he’s so ambivalent about. Exit question: Any U.S. options here besides crossing our fingers and hoping the missile falls harmlessly into the Pacific? One possibility is shooting it down secretly and announcing publicly that the missile failed on its own, a la the 2006 Taepodong launch. That would let the North Koreans save face, which might be enough to avoid confrontation.


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Comment pages: 1 2 3

Did Hillary give them a button that accidentally said launch in Korean?

aikidoka on March 25, 2009 at 8:02 PM

“진수” — “Lawn-che”

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:06 PM

Only problem with that, Y-not is that those intercepter missiles do leave exhaust trails, and you better believe the NorKs will have spotters to track and record their “satellite.”

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 8:01 PM

It’s definitely a gamble, but I think Japan has the best case for doing something.

It might not be a bad thing for our enemies to have to think about responding to military action from more than just U.S. and a handful of reliable allies.

Do any of the mil-heads on this thread know if there would be any way to recover the debris (should the “satellite” be shot down) and determine that it is not a satellite? Aren’t there some treaties in place that are supposed to be preventing NorK from doing this sort of thing?

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:06 PM

Let’s look how long have negotiations been going on with North Korea. Started in 1952 or so. Says lots about how effective the technique is. Just sit down and work a few things out how hard can that be.

rsl775 on March 25, 2009 at 8:06 PM

What the hell does Obama care? The North Koreans are his ideological brethren.

Riposte on March 25, 2009 at 8:07 PM

They say they launch next month.

Lil kim needs more Scotch.

getalife on March 25, 2009 at 8:07 PM

Aren’t there some treaties in place that are supposed to be preventing NorK from doing this sort of thing?

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:06 PM

They may have been signed in the past, when the American Imperialists tried to suppress the communist culture. This is a new era- HISTORIC

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:08 PM

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t republicans cancel the bribes Clinton worked out for NK to stop missile development because the price the US government was paying for the oil was too low?

barkolounger on March 25, 2009 at 8:08 PM

Shoot the missile – if the NK’s roll into the South – respond with overwhelming force – and quickly. If I were President I’d throw a couple of tactical nukes on Pyongyang – but hey, that’s me.

HondaV65 on March 25, 2009 at 8:00 PM

The Nork’s have massive Infantry and Artillery, thier army is about twice the size of ours, and much of ours is in Iraq/Afghanistan. We would have to refit sub missles or aircraft with tacs and nuk the DMZ and north, and maybe some to the south, to stop them. I think we have about 30,000? troops in SKor.

MB4 on March 25, 2009 at 8:12 PM

BUSH PREVARICATED, NK ESCALATED

Jim Treacher on March 25, 2009 at 8:13 PM

I knew this was Chimpy McHitler’s fault.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:16 PM

What do they have that can do that? Is it this Aegis BMD thing?

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 7:58 PM

That’s it. Same thing we shot down a satellite with a few months ago.

Only problem with that, Y-not is that those intercepter missiles do leave exhaust trails, and you better believe the NorKs will have spotters to track and record their “satellite.”

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 8:01 PM

Yes and no. The SM missile leaves an obvious smoke trail, until it leaves the atmosphere. The advantage is you don’t have to be just off-shoreor close to the launch site to hit it. Anywhere within the missiles’ range along the flight path will do.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 8:19 PM

if Kim is unstable, & he obviously is, then why do we keep giving him stuff? if the NorKs were starving & freezing, why don’t the Chinese give them food & oil rather than us?

kelley in virginia on March 25, 2009 at 8:21 PM

Thank God it isn’t targeted at TOTUS. We’d have to take it out then.

Limerick on March 25, 2009 at 8:23 PM

We don’t need no stinkin’ missile defense system.

ctmom on March 25, 2009 at 8:23 PM

Do any of the mil-heads on this thread know if there would be any way to recover the debris (should the “satellite” be shot down) and determine that it is not a satellite? Aren’t there some treaties in place that are supposed to be preventing NorK from doing this sort of thing?

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:06 PM

We could track the debris, but unless it came down on land it would be all but impossible to find. This assumes enough recoverable debris survives re-entry.

Just think back to how long it took to recover the remains of the space shuttles (Challenger and Columbia); one over water and the other over land.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 8:24 PM

Well, at least the Japanese are going to blast this thing…unless Messiah says no, that is.

AUINSC on March 25, 2009 at 8:25 PM

Y-not,

Japan does have a BMD capability, and it is possible that they could shoot it down (should they decide it poses a threat). They’ve even said so…

Once it splashes down, it could be recovered, but any claims of “there was no satellite,” will I’m sure be countered with, “well, it was in there when we lit the fuse. Maybe it disintegrated in the crash, or is somewhere on the ocean floor…”

The NorKs are prohibited from engaging in any missile launch activity by UN resolution (because those have worked so well in the past…)

(BTW, I have 10 years mil experience in the Air Force, with 2 tours in Korea under my belt)

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 8:25 PM

Useful info about our/Japan’s ICBM defense capabilities here.

(Nice posts about immigration and Obama’s “couple of days” (contrasting it to FDR and Pearl Harbor) on the main page.)

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:25 PM

Thank God it isn’t targeted at TOTUS. We’d have to take it out then.

Limerick on March 25, 2009 at 8:23 PM

I’ve heard that TOTUS has his own Secret Service Entourage.

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:27 PM

Thanks, Tremor and BobMbx. ‘Nice to have some informed folks on this thread. I’m at the mercy of what I can find through Google!

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:28 PM

Oh, and Tremor, THANK YOU for watching out for us all those years!

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:29 PM

if Kim is unstable, & he obviously is, then why do we keep giving him stuff? if the NorKs were starving & freezing, why don’t the Chinese give them food & oil rather than us?

kelley in virginia on March 25, 2009 at 8:21 PM

You must have a mouse in your pocket when you say “we”. The Chicoms are the country through which Western foreign aid is allowed to enter DPRK. And China does provide their own aid, although the quantity and type is never accurately divulged.

That said, it is NOT in China’s interests to have the DPRK running around like a loose cannon. As some have already said here, I would also expect China to play a big part in any retaliation towards the DPRK.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 8:29 PM

I hope when North Korea nukes the United States that it takes out most of California.

Tabris on March 25, 2009 at 8:30 PM

I’ve heard that TOTUS has his own Secret Service Entourage.

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:27 PM

Does TOTUS have a wife or does Saskwatch fill that position?

Knucklehead on March 25, 2009 at 8:30 PM

As MB4 can testify, those 8,000 155mm’s sitting north of the DMZ are more then enough to turn Seoul into the Sea of Tranquility. Sure, the airedales on our side, and carriers, could take a big chunk outta them, but Seoul would still disappear.

Limerick on March 25, 2009 at 8:32 PM

I hope when North Korea nukes the United States that it takes out most of California.

Tabris on March 25, 2009 at 8:30 PM

Hey, I’m in California! Give me some warning, will ya’?!

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:32 PM

Remember that missile shield we were building for eastern Europe?

Did we remember to build one for the Western United States and Hawaii first?

PlumCrazy on March 25, 2009 at 8:33 PM

Does TOTUS have a wife or does Saskwatch fill that position?

Knucklehead on March 25, 2009 at 8:30 PM

In order to be cool and to be able to relate with the MTV youths, TOTUS has decided to be in several open relationships – one is with Chris Matthews’ leg. He also has a few “baby’s mamas” stashed away in the basement of the white house. TOTUS is currently learning Ebonics so that Michelle O can reach out to the youths in a sincere, authentic manner.

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:34 PM

Remember that missile shield we were building for eastern Europe?

Did we remember to build one for the Western United States and Hawaii first?

PlumCrazy on March 25, 2009 at 8:33 PM

Tremor and our other resident experts can correct me, but I *think* this is the system that would be used to protect them:

Kim Jong Il is obviously uncomfortable. As tens of thousands of U.S. and South Korean troops staged an annual war-games exercise last week, he put North Korea’s military on alert. The real pea under his mattress, though, could be four battle cruisers that ply the Sea of Japan, just over the horizon from the Dear Leader’s beaches. These ships—two American, two Japanese—carry missiles capable of reaching North Korean nuclear-tipped rockets on their way to Japan, or even the satellite Kim has promised to put up any day now. U.S. Admiral Timothy Keating may have had these same missiles in mind when he threatened in late February to shoot down anything Kim felt emboldened to launch.

These four cruisers aren’t the only ships that act as a de facto antimissile defense. The U.S. Navy has 73 Aegis ships around the world equipped with missiles that can reach space targets—whether the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that carry nuclear warheads or satellites that fly in low earth orbit. As the Obama administration shows signs of backing away from plans to put missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic, this fleet of “Aegis” cruisers, as they’re called, may be called upon to take up the slack. U.S. Representative Ellen Tauscher, head of the House strategic forces subcommittee, praised recent progress on Aegis in hearings last month. “This was a major accomplishment that we should all take pride in,” she said. “The same cannot be said of the long-range” ground-based missile defense. However, there are reasons to doubt that relying on Aegis will be an effective military strategy in the long run.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:39 PM

Maybe the will be aimed at LA and NY and do all of us a favor.

there is still hope

Mercy4Me on March 25, 2009 at 8:39 PM

No problem, Y-not. Having spent so much time there, I have taken to following the situation with much interest…

I don’t think the Japanese are so keen to shoot it, unless it is clear that it will impact in their territory. Primarily because theirs’ is a “Self Defense Force” with limited offensive capability. Plus, given the sensitivity of their Imperialist past, I think they would prefer to not take that route…

The Chinese are the real enablers of all this, and their response will be the most calculated and have the most impact on the NorKs. Keep your eye on them.

Don’t mention the service… Just doing my part.

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 8:40 PM

Maybe the will be aimed at LA and NY and do all of us a favor.

there is still hope

Mercy4Me on March 25, 2009 at 8:39 PM

I was hoping for DC and Air Force One.

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:40 PM

I’ve heard that TOTUS has his own Secret Service Entourage.

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:27 PM

His codename is “brains” Barack’s is “mouth”….standard protocol is to protect the prompter first since it knows what the plans needed in crisis are…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 8:44 PM

His codename is “brains” Barack’s is “mouth”….standard protocol is to protect the prompter first since it knows what the plans needed in crisis are…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 8:44 PM

So Gibb’s codename would be “bitch”?

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:46 PM

Maybe this was not the best time to move back to Guam!

geckomon on March 25, 2009 at 8:47 PM

Did we remember to build one for the Western United States and Hawaii first?

PlumCrazy on March 25, 2009 at 8:33 PM

Over 20 interceptors have been in the ground in CA and AK and on alert since the last Nork launch in 2006.

Cuffy Meigs on March 25, 2009 at 8:47 PM

So Gibb’s codename would be “bitch”?

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:46 PM

Duodenum ie “the starting place of $hit….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 8:49 PM

One possibility is shooting it down secretly and announcing publicly that the missile failed on its own, a la the 2006 Taepodong launch.

Interesting.

I have not heard of a secret shoot-down.

SCOOPTHIScarlos on March 25, 2009 at 8:49 PM

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:49 PM

Indeed….

Bjork is a doll…if one could cauterize her vocal cords so she couldn’t speak moonbat….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 8:50 PM

As far as the NorK response of an all out attack on the South, I can assure you it won’t be pretty…

They have quite a few of those artillery pieces. The upside: we know where most of them are, because they are in fixed, hardened positions. The downside: they are in fixed, hardened positions.

The real scary part to me: Jonger’s chemical and biological weapons.

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 8:50 PM

See, I thought this one was the winner. It reminds me of Björk – and that’s insulting Björk.

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 8:49 PM

My favorite description of that dress was on one of AoS’s threads… from the comments, I think. I can’t remember it verbatim but it had something to do with Michelle rolling around on the floor of a porn theater… something about kleenex…

I wish I could find it.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:52 PM

As far as the NorK response of an all out attack on the South, I can assure you it won’t be pretty…

They have quite a few of those artillery pieces. The upside: we know where most of them are, because they are in fixed, hardened positions. The downside: they are in fixed, hardened positions.

The real scary part to me: Jonger’s chemical and biological weapons.

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 8:50 PM

The 2d ID will vanish in 36 hours….the good news is we will be able to CB about 2/3ds of the opfor’s arty pieces after their first volley…

the bad news is that other third…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 8:52 PM

Indeed….

Bjork is a doll…if one could cauterize her vocal cords so she couldn’t speak moonbat….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 8:50 PM

I liked her better with the Sugarcubes. She could single-handedly take out Kim Jong Il in that swan dress.

HornetSting on March 25, 2009 at 8:57 PM

Obama’s co-pilot is Han Solo’s co-pilot as well…

Cuffy Meigs on March 25, 2009 at 9:01 PM

well Chewie seemed smarter and kinder, BUT then again I don’t speak fluent Shyriiwook I think her name is Michelawroo….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:04 PM

Limerick on March 25, 2009 at 8:32 PM

From Janes -

The KPA fields over 13,000 artillery and multiple rocket launcher (MRL) systems. Of this total approximately 1,100 are long-range 170mm self-propelled guns (SPGs) and 240mm MRLs. A key requirement for these systems was the capability of reaching Seoul from specialized hardened artillery sites (HARTS) constructed within 5-20km of the demilitarized zone (DMZ).

HARTS are an integral component of the KPA’s defensive system. Forward sites are located close enough to the DMZ to allow at least two-thirds of the artillery systems’ range to fall within the ROK. Additional concentrations of HARTS, and other fortified fighting positions, are located throughout the KPA’s first, second and third defensive lines as well as in vital rear areas. It has been estimated that there are over 500 HARTS within the II and IV Corps areas of responsibilities alone.

The challenge of quickly neutralizing KPA HARTS is an underlying factor in US development of specialized deep-penetration munitions during the past decade. The ROK Air Force (ROKAF) and US Air Force (USAF) have developed a comprehensive plan to methodically target known HARTS with specialized penetration munitions. These operations will seek to either destroy the HARTS or block entrances to inhibit their use by long-range artillery systems.

The use of chemical warfare (CW) rounds – which the KPA possesses for all artillery systems greater than 107mm in diameter – would present a significant increase in the threat posed by these systems – especially to civilians. A single 240mm MRL battalion firing CW rounds could quickly saturate a large area with lethal concentrations of CW agents and then maintain that level of concentration for a prolonged period of time. The panic that would likely ensue among the civilian population would undoubtedly be momentous. Based upon known KPA tactics, operations, procedures and defector interviews an estimated 5-20% of the rounds initially available to DMZ corps level and 620th Artillery Corps artillery units are likely to be CW projectiles.

As noted previously, the figures presented here represent the optimal KPA long-range artillery threat to Seoul alone. If all the KPA’s artillery of 100mm or more, capable of firing across the entire DMZ, were calculated together they could achieve an initial rate of fire of approximately 300,000-500,000 rounds per hour [80-135 rounds per second].

MB4 on March 25, 2009 at 9:05 PM

I know the Norks have a huge military but how prepared are they to really fight? The military is one of the few ways to get anything to eat so I am left with a lot of questions about how loyal they would be to the Ill regime. Would they have the backing of the Chinese like they did during the Korean War? How big and well prepared is SoKo’s military after training with us for decades?

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:05 PM

Michelawroo in her native garb…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:05 PM

+1

Upstater85 on March 25, 2009 at 9:06 PM

If all the KPA’s artillery of 100mm or more, capable of firing across the entire DMZ, were calculated together they could achieve an initial rate of fire of approximately 300,000-500,000 rounds per hour [80-135 rounds per second].

MB4 on March 25, 2009 at 9:05 PM

yup these capabilities speak to an OBVIOUS need to cut US defense spending 25%….ask Bawney Fwank and Ogabe about it…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:06 PM

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:05 PM

I think your question assumes that we’re talking about a conventional war.

That’s the problem.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:07 PM

I know the Norks have a huge military but how prepared are they to really fight? The military is one of the few ways to get anything to eat so I am left with a lot of questions about how loyal they would be to the Ill regime. Would they have the backing of the Chinese like they did during the Korean War? How big and well prepared is SoKo’s military after training with us for decades?

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:05 PM

similar arguments were made when the balloon went up back in the ’50s…

google TaskForce Smith and ponder our current “defense hawks” in Cmmte Chairs….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:08 PM

hilary says any such action by No Korea will not go unnoticed. well, duh, hillary.

maybe china will move into taiwan while we’re worrying about no. korea. and we have lots of treaties with taiwan. how many will bambi keep? well, how many of his promises has he kept so far?

kelley in virginia on March 25, 2009 at 9:11 PM

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:08 PM

NorK may not be in the “Axis of Evil” any longer, but I’m not sure if it is one of those “tiny” countries our CiC was so fond of talking about.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:16 PM

I think your question assumes that we’re talking about a conventional war.

That’s the problem.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:07 PM

I understand your point and with the current numnut we have as TiC I am worried. I know SoKo is supposedly under our nuclear umbrella by treaty but I am left wondering about a lot of things.

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:18 PM

Although, in fairness, Chewbacca had a much smaller as5.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:17 PM

and his arms were less Chiseled, BUT his jawline was more natural and the predator underbite less pronounced…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:19 PM

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:19 PM

You owe me a new monitor.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:20 PM

You owe me a new monitor.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:20 PM

Oh, and I’m in California. Better make it LCD.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:21 PM

I understand your point and with the current numnut we have as TiC I am worried. I know SoKo is supposedly under our nuclear umbrella by treaty but I am left wondering about a lot of things.

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:18 PM

The SoKos will quit before the NorKos….

I am left wondering if China will use Dear Leader(the original) to topple the south and invade both to “restore order”…..

Japan and China took turns screwing the peninsula for a thousand years.

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:21 PM

Did Hillary give them a button that accidentally said launch in Korean?

aikidoka on March 25, 2009 at 8:02 PM

Now that’s some gallows humor.

baldilocks on March 25, 2009 at 9:22 PM

Oh, and I’m in California. Better make it LCD.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:21 PM

Ja zat vill help herr ekonomy mein fruend….

heh

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:22 PM

North Korea has a lot of military manpower and hardware – but it’s like an NBA lineup that is one deep in all positions (actually, it’s worse than that). Without resupply from some other nation – the NK’s can’t fight long.

Massive numbers of infantry – mean massive losses to technologically superior weaponry.

Not saying it would be a picnic – but we have quite a few more arrows in the quiver than we did back in the 50’s.

HondaV65 on March 25, 2009 at 9:22 PM

yup these capabilities speak to an OBVIOUS need to cut US defense spending 25%….ask Bawney Fwank and Ogabe about it…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:06 PM

Yup, it’s called the BOKYAG (Bend Over and Kiss Your Ass Goodbye) strategy, or as I think Rush would say, strategery.

MB4 on March 25, 2009 at 9:25 PM

I hope when North Korea nukes the United States that it takes out most of California.

Tabris on March 25, 2009 at 8:30 PM

You wish, Moby.

baldilocks on March 25, 2009 at 9:26 PM

Not saying it would be a picnic – but we have quite a few more arrows in the quiver than we did back in the 50’s.

HondaV65 on March 25, 2009 at 9:22 PM

while I agree on one level recall we had strategic bombers, the opfor had none, we had round the clock tacair the opfor was outclassed, yeah after we got our mad on we kicked their butts to the Yalu but then Mao felt his cheery oats….

I think China will decide if they profit more from having access to SoKo’s industrial base directly or if the discord hurts profits….

if the former Seoul is doomed, the latter Pyongyang will go ping-pong.

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:26 PM

If Japan were to shoot the launch down how would the Norks target them other than by missile? How big is the Nork’s navy and how capable? That massive infantry doesn’t do much good when they can’t get them to the fight. Would they just start a war with SoKo when SoKo didn’t shoot down the launch? I think they might if we did and maybe that answers my question.

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:27 PM

Yup, it’s called the BOKYAG (Bend Over and Kiss Your Ass Goodbye) strategy, or as I think Rush would say, strategery.

MB4 on March 25, 2009 at 9:25 PM

ponder how much air, sea, and wheel lift we had in mothballs to whistle up and now consider that while we have awesome capabilities today in many new areas we are hamstrung for prolonged operations against a conventional tier 1 or 2 opfor because we did not grow the force a third….

yeah I had nightmares about TF Smith when wife was at Red Cloud…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:28 PM

Thanks, Tremor and BobMbx. ‘Nice to have some informed folks on this thread. I’m at the mercy of what I can find through Google!

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 8:28 PM

No problemo. Instead of Googling, bookmark these sites for military info:

http://www.globalsecurity.org
Possibly the best overall defense/military site on the web. They are strictly defense program oriented.

Federation of American Scientists

This site also contains a great deal of defense/weapon programs, but also delves into the geo-political arena. They are fair in the presentation of data, but tend towards an anti-war stance. They have a great deal of data about WMDs, and keep current on geo-political wrangling around the world and the impact that has concerning WMDs.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 9:29 PM

If Japan were to shoot the launch down how would the Norks target them other than by missile? How big is the Nork’s navy and how capable? That massive infantry doesn’t do much good when they can’t get them to the fight. Would they just start a war with SoKo when SoKo didn’t shoot down the launch? I think they might if we did and maybe that answers my question.

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:27 PM

we’ve “loaned” allies our THAAD before….

I suspect they may start up irregular ops against Japanese interests….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:29 PM

If Japan were to shoot the launch down how would the Norks target them other than by missile?
goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:27 PM

I guess their response would depend on whether or not they believed the U.S. considered itself bound by security agreements to defend Japan.

The problem is that we have a CiC who parses everything out to such an extent that you really can’t tell if he’d decide not to based on some lawyerly interpretation of the legality of Japan’s initial action.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:34 PM

Federation of American Scientists

This site also contains a great deal of defense/weapon programs, but also delves into the geo-political arena. They are fair in the presentation of data, but tend towards an anti-war stance.

Thanks.

I’ll skip the FAS folks. I wouldn’t trust their stuff, frankly, based on their past behavior.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:35 PM

North Korea has a lot of military manpower and hardware – but it’s like an NBA lineup that is one deep in all positions (actually, it’s worse than that). Without resupply from some other nation – the NK’s can’t fight long.

Massive numbers of infantry – mean massive losses to technologically superior weaponry.

Not saying it would be a picnic – but we have quite a few more arrows in the quiver than we did back in the 50’s.

HondaV65 on March 25, 2009 at 9:22 PM

Very true. The DPRK has one hell of a first strike capacity, but after that, they’re toast. Their military as a whole has enough fuel reserve for about 3 days of maneuver time. Also, their big punch comes from an absurd number of artillery pieces within range of Seoul. But again, they have on average about 3-10 rounds per tube; about 10 minutes of firepower. After that, they’re spent. Then one has to consider the food supply for the DPRK soldiers. It wasn’t long ago that the photos were released that showed entire army units growing their own food in large “gardens” on the military installations.

Pretty sad when you think about it.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 9:36 PM

Pretty sad when you think about it.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 9:36 PM

No what’s sad is SoKo college kids who are willing to “unify” with NorKos as “equals” even if it means “going commie”….like I said the SoKo civillians will quit first.

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:39 PM

I’ll skip the FAS folks. I wouldn’t trust their stuff, frankly, based on their past behavior.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:35 PM

It’s a good source. I didn’t mean to imply they were in cahoots with Code Stink or anything like that. I’ve never come across anything blatantly wrong or without attribution for source in what they present. And, I’ve not found any “errors” in their data.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 9:39 PM

And, I’ve not found any “errors” in their data.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 9:39 PM

well they misjudged the effectiveness of Allied bombing in the Kosovo airwar until the Clintonian blandsihments Billy ordered the USAF to claim were exposed…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:44 PM

we’ve “loaned” allies our THAAD before….

I suspect they may start up irregular ops against Japanese interests….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:29 PM

I am not very familiar with Mil acronyms so what is THAAD?

The problem is that we have a CiC who parses everything out to such an extent that you really can’t tell if he’d decide not to based on some lawyerly interpretation of the legality of Japan’s initial action.

Y-not on March 25, 2009 at 9:34 PM

Oh believe me I know. I realize our ground forces are pretty tied up right now but the Navy and Airforce aren’t so we could level much of NoKo in hours, its not a very big country.

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:47 PM

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 9:36 PM

Those are some of the things I’ve been wondering about. The Norks can put on a show but is their really any meat on the bones or all just pomp?

goat on March 25, 2009 at 9:51 PM

But again, they have on average about 3-10 rounds per tube

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 9:36 PM

I don’t know but I would think they would have a lot more rounds than that. An artillery round is almost free compared to the price of an artillery piece.

MB4 on March 25, 2009 at 9:51 PM

THAAD…Theatre High Altitude Air Defense

Patriot style assets…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:55 PM

The primary NorK threat to Japan is ballistic missile… Their navy isn’t very robust, but they do have lots of SOF, and the means to infiltrate both the RoK and Japan. With the NorK leadership believing that both the RoK and Japan are nothing more than capitalist stooges for the US, if they did retaliate, then they would most likely attack the RoK, trying to push all the way in those first 72 hours, just like in 1950.

As I said… It wouldn’t be pretty…

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 9:58 PM

THAAD…Theatre High Altitude Air Defense

Patriot style assets…

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 9:55 PM

Actually, they changed “Theatre” to “Terminal” a couple of years ago. And it just shot down a ship-launched Scud clone off Hawaii last week — 8 for 8 since ‘99.

Cuffy Meigs on March 25, 2009 at 9:58 PM

Actually, they changed “Theatre” to “Terminal” a couple of years ago. And it just shot down a ship-launched Scud clone off Hawaii last week — 8 for 8 since ‘99.

Cuffy Meigs on March 25, 2009 at 9:58 PM

heh…ineeed…I was at Bliss when the first high level shootdowns took place….we then cancelled that generation thanks to Billiam….

“sound familiar”?

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 10:00 PM

“sound familiar”?

Sadly it does…

Cuffy Meigs on March 25, 2009 at 10:01 PM

I don’t know but I would think they would have a lot more rounds than that. An artillery round is almost free compared to the price of an artillery piece.

MB4 on March 25, 2009 at 9:51 PM

So is bread.

Don’t forget that the DPRK has no money to buy arms, and nobody will loan them money (legitimately). Their friends are few and far between; most of them don’t have export quantities of arms. This is what drives N. Korea and other similarly situated countries to explore nuclear weaponry. The thinking is that with a small number of nukes you can prevent a neighbor from invading you, and you can force the ROW to pay attention to you. You have no need of a large army. And in the case of the DPRK, the megalomaniac in charge doesn’t act rationally, so most assessments of tactics and strategy are guesses at best.

They have an aging military with no logistical support either for combat operations or maintenance. They have no major firing exercises (equivalent to what we do at TwentyNine Palms) Of course, these terms are used as they are understood by modern armies, and may not have any relation to the DPRK military.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 10:04 PM

Sadly it does…

Cuffy Meigs on March 25, 2009 at 10:01 PM

ADA branch has a really interesting soap opera in its chain of branch leadership succession during the clinton era…involving arranged marriages, non arranged divorces and other hi-jinks….

sven10077 on March 25, 2009 at 10:05 PM

Let Japan’s MSDF take it out with one of their Kongo-class destroyers. They have done in tests with us. If that fails have the USN shoot it down.

We need to take it out to show not only the NKs that we are serious, but to show the Chicoms that their wasting their time and money on missiles. We shamed them with the shoot down of that old satellite last year after their little stunt that we need to rub their faces in it a little more….

Bubba Redneck on March 25, 2009 at 10:06 PM

The Norks have a lot of agents planted throughout the South, and the world’s largest submarine force designed for infiltration. The Norks would wreak a lot of havoc. They wouldn’t win, but they’d take a lot of innocents with them.

Maquis on March 25, 2009 at 10:07 PM

Oh, wait, that half-white half-wit is POTUS.
He’ll probably apologize for one of our evil capitalist cities getting in the flight path of the glorious worker’s revolutionary peaceful missile for the people!!

Bubba Redneck on March 25, 2009 at 10:11 PM

Well, I think President Obama should make a video tape and offer to be friends with North Korea. Problem solved!

Dr. ZhivBlago on March 25, 2009 at 10:14 PM

Thanks y’all for the great answers to my questions. I figure Japan and SoKo both have substantial Patriot batteries of their own. I have a feeling NoKo is more fluff than huff kinda like Saddam was but unlike Saddam they have no oil to finance or fuel their ambitions. They amy have bunches of rockets for show in their parades but do they have fuel for them?

One question that hasn’t been answered as compared to the Norks, what is the status of the SoKo military? They have a manufacturing base and a fairly dynamic economy. Do they have hardened batteries pointed back at the Norks?

goat on March 25, 2009 at 10:19 PM

Bubba Redneck on March 25, 2009 at 10:11 PM

Actually, I think AP’s on to something where he wrote:

One possibility is shooting it down secretly and announcing publicly that the missile failed on its own, a la the 2006 Taepodong launch. That would let the North Koreans save face, which might be enough to avoid confrontation.

Consider:

TOTUS has been caught with his pants down more, often than not, regarding military matters generally (Gitmo, Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, Iraq, etc., etc. come to mind). I agree with AP that he will gravitate to something that will save face. Also, privately he will use the very tool he publicly derides – BMD – to keep NoKo in place while publicly fellating them diplomatically. Not only will TOTUS then be able to spew his BS about “smart diplomacy”, but he will also remind the military that they are his b*tch to be used, and abused, just as BJ did from 1993 to 2001.

TOTUS cannot politically afford an attack on CONUS, because it will instantly make him a one-term president with no future in politics (like a African-American mashup of Gore and Carter, if you can imagine that). At the same time, TOTUS cannot politically allow the US to be seen as a strong force in strategic affairs, because he needs to nurture a state of fear in order for him to get away with spending his way into another 50 year Democrat permanent majority.

TOTUS is a grotesque political combination of the worst bullsh*t of Clinton and the weakness of Carter, on Soros-bought steroids. Beware.

Wanderlust on March 25, 2009 at 10:23 PM

The RoK army is pretty robust, and their military is pretty well set up to work in tandem with ours. We hold regular mass exercises every year to ensure that capability (one just concluded a couple of weeks ago). Their navy is small, but capable, as is their air force.

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 10:26 PM

Tremor on March 25, 2009 at 10:26 PM

Thats what I figured and being trained by our SpecOps and Marines is a major plus.

goat on March 25, 2009 at 10:28 PM

Also, isn’t it against a UN Resolution for DPRK to develop/test/use ballistic missile technology.

I don’t think even Hans Blix couldn’t whitewash this one.

Kai on March 25, 2009 at 10:50 PM

Missiles are no match for hope.

Do your worst!

Chuck Schick on March 25, 2009 at 10:52 PM

Remind me, folks, why were neutron bombs outlawed?

OldEnglish on March 25, 2009 at 11:08 PM

If they launch, and God help us if they do, I hope Kimmy’s taepodong lands right in the middle of barry soetoros lap, voila, birth certificate and socialism boy’s master plan owned. Then we launch and get down to biz–BOOM.

GlocknRoll on March 25, 2009 at 11:23 PM

Barre…

get da hell out from unda dat desk, foo. and stop suckin yo thumb. you know i tole you to stop doin dat when we moved in dis house.

sh!t, wont sumpin done right, guess you got do it yo-sef.

where dat kim jun ill?
i gone show dat ho wuz up!

Meeshel

i know, i know. i can’t help it. i just had a visual.

sandlin71 on March 25, 2009 at 11:38 PM

Remind me, folks, why were neutron bombs outlawed?

OldEnglish on March 25, 2009 at 11:08 PM

They’re not outlawed. They have no mission. They still exist with a new name: Enhanced Radiation Weapon. No country is known to have this design deployed. The only difference between a run-of-the-mill nuke and an ERW is how the energy is released. An EWR releases a higher percentage of energy as radiation instead of heat or blast effects.

Although the argument can be made that “dirty bombs” are EWRs, and they are not as difficult to construct.

BobMbx on March 25, 2009 at 11:57 PM

Remind me, folks, why were neutron bombs outlawed?

OldEnglish on March 25, 2009 at 11:08 PM

Because Jimmy Carter is a moron that wants any use of a weapon that can effectively end the Seoul hostage crisis without millions of civilian casualties to create massive radioactive fallout creating global terror and universal condemnation. We can’t have a weapon that only kills the bad guy because then it might be, you know, militarily useful. Because nukes are evil, and betraying the security and freedom of peaceful peoples is a pastime of Mr. Carter.

Duhhh! ;)

Maquis on March 26, 2009 at 12:15 AM

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