Too good to check: Palin robocalls being made in Iowa, New Hampshire?

I agree. Which begs the question: Why does Allah think Sanford is a “surefire” candidate for 2012? He hasn’t shown up once in a national GOP Primary poll, he has no money or charisma, and he is below 50% approval in his own state of South Carolina.

Norwegian on March 24, 2009 at 1:08 PM

This far out from the next election, I think all you can do is look for an intersection of desire, a rationale for running, and some minimum threshhold of plausibility. Sanford isn’t brimming with advantages, as you pointed out, but saying he’s a surefire candidate isn’t the same thing as suggesting he’s likely to win. He seems to be positioning himself to take a shot, and put together a rationale for a campaign. He doesn’t strike me as being terribly charismatic, but that’s a highly subjective judgement, and it’s awfully tough to predict what the primary voters will be looking for three years from now – and of course, that might be very different than what the general election voters are hungry for. If other things begin to fall into place for Sanford, and he can pull some big crowds and generate some excitement, he might not have much trouble getting the money he needs. If not, he’ll fizzle out, as so many other would-be candidates have done. It seems highly likely at this point he will make the effort, so I think it’s fair to call him a sure-fire candidate.

Likewise, Huckabee isn’t my cup of tea, but he’s obviously got the desire to run, and the resources to make himself plausible. The strength of his run last time guarantees him a spot at the starting line for the 2012 horse race, if he wants in – and he rather clearly does.

Palin seems less “sure fire” to me, simply because she might not want to do it. She has charisma, a proven ability to draw crowds and attract media attention, and no problem getting the money for a run together. I think she’s still mulling it over. I wouldn’t blame her for deciding not to go through the ordeal again, but I suspect she will – because people obviously want her to, and I think that matters to her. She’s also clearly appalled at what’s happening to the country, and seems like the kind of person who would have a hard time doing nothing about it.

If she’s realistic about admitting that damage was done to her last time out, and takes steps to correct it, I doubt she was fatally wounded in 2008. Most of the criticisms leveled at her last time around seem funnier and funnier with each passing week of disastrous Obama headlines. Think she would have blown off Gordon Brown and sent him home with a 25-pack of region-inappropriate DVDs of old movies? Does the silly attack on her wardrobe carry any weight after the fawning news stories of Michelle Obama swanking around at a top-shelf fashion show? Does anyone think she would have sat there giggling like a clueless idiot on “60 Minutes” and making jokes as her policies crashed the American economy? Can you see her floating trial balloons about making soldiers pay for their own health care, or smiling indulgently as squads of brownshirts were deployed to make people sign loyalty oaths to her?

Palin isn’t quite “surefire” yet, but a few more news cycles of Obama outrages might firm up her resolve. The one thing I can say with metaphysical certainty will not matter at all, to anyone, is some nitwit posting her resume 4000 times on the comment boards of a blog.

Doctor Zero on March 24, 2009 at 1:35 PM