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So what would national bankruptcy mean?

posted at 3:55 pm on March 23, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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After Allahpundit’s post yesterday on Judd Gregg’s remarks, Hot Air reader Jennifer in NC sent the following question to me:

Sen Gregg’s statements about bankrupting the country and the path ahead being unsustainable for our children were very sobering. I trust his judgment and take him at his word. However, these statements sorely need to be expanded upon and put into practical terms.

I know it would all be speculation, but what would it mean to me now, 10 years from now, 20 year or more down the road if the US went bankrupt? I am 39 years old and in my working life have really known nothing less than prosperity and growth. I know that I’ve heard complaints about deficits as long as I can remember. What makes this so different? How would it affect my children? Grandchildren? Also, for perspective, how would it affect those we consider high-income earners, middle and low-income families? Will we all be government employees? If the country is bankrupt, will there even be a private sector? I have my own business (with only 1 employee) – will this be sustainable? Will I ever be able to retire?

That’s a good question, and a tough one to answer.  My first thought was that it would look a lot like this:

This was Zimbabwe in September 2007.  The man in the picture needed to pay his restaurant tab, and he made a point of paying in cash … all Z$7.6 million of it.  You know what that would buy today?  The drink.

But that’s too glib of an answer, so I turned to my great friend and NARN colleague King Banaian, who posted an answer earlier today:

One of the things we know in economics is that most people prefer to smooth their consumption over time. There are plungers; there are people who save too much and others who save too little, but on average people get it right. Because most people make less when they’re young, they typically accumulate debt when they are young, only to retire it and accumulate wealth when you’re old. For every individual, insolvency means you no longer can make a credible commitment to pay that debt down to zero in your lifetime.

The same applies to government.  Governments cannot run Ponzi schemes, accumulating ever-higher amounts of debt.  We need to demonstrate that, over time, the total national debt is on a path that leads eventually to its retirement. …

The repercussions over the last three days have been astounding. Sen. Judd Gregg is sounding an alarm over the problem CBO raises.  Nouriel Roubini says ”A government that will issue trillions of dollars of new debt to pay for this severe recession and socialize private losses may risk becoming a Ponzi government if–in the medium term–it does not return to fiscal discipline and debt sustainability.” In Canada Diane Francis thinks America may have reached its best-before date. …

Some of this is changing — some people are delaying retirement, others are saving more now — but it’s as if the current administration is turning its back on the very generation that brought it to office. If someone could get them the message…

So what will it look like?  I’m sticking with Zimbabwe, but be sure to read all of King’s post.


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Road To Ruin: The Final Stretch

econavenger on March 23, 2009 at 3:58 PM

Making national bankruptcy is the “change” The Messiah had in mind for us…………….

Cinday Blackburn on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

Ummmmm*……bit too dramatic, there.

What it means? It means we join Japan, France, Italy, Germany, GB, and a host of others who have never been able to make good on our loans to them.

:)

And, it means that we wouldn’t really have the pressure of pretending that Russia pays any attention to us and what we want.

It would mean that poor China probably falls off the cliff, but they aren’t that many years out of precarious living anyway.

And I doubt it would even stem the flow of people still clamouring to get into the country.

We would still be ….. the place to live.

AnninCA on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

I suspect “retirement” will soon become an archaic word.

rbj on March 23, 2009 at 4:02 PM

“WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans”
nice343

Give it a rest nice343. Same line all of the time.

BobK on March 23, 2009 at 4:03 PM

”A government that will issue trillions of dollars of new debt to pay for this severe recession and socialize private losses may risk becoming a Ponzi government if–in the medium term–it does not return to fiscal discipline and debt sustainability.”

“may risk becoming” – That is too generous. I suggest a more certain, past-tense phrase.

Vashta.Nerada on March 23, 2009 at 4:03 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

They’re not paying attention. A wise man sees trouble coming.

INC on March 23, 2009 at 4:04 PM

When I got married in 1970 a friend of mine’s parent slipped a “little’ cash in the wedding card. They gave us about 100 blllion marks issued by the Weimar government. Governments like ours don’t go bankrugpt. They pay off their debt in very cheap currency.

jerryofva on March 23, 2009 at 4:04 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Those who have knowledge of economic history know Obama Bush inherited mess created by republicans Clinton and Carter

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

FIFY

Wethal on March 23, 2009 at 4:04 PM

People could pay in gold coins, or set up currency committees, to find a way to work around a failed fiat currency.

Right_of_Attila on March 23, 2009 at 4:05 PM

That makes sense, jerry….

AnninCA on March 23, 2009 at 4:05 PM

I keep thinking of the Weimar Republic.

INC on March 23, 2009 at 4:05 PM

Another aspect of bankruptcy is that govt will have to start reneging on it’s committments. Amongst the first to go will be universal social security. By universal, I mean payments. Everyone will still be required to contribute, but only those who fall under to be established income and wealth requirements will be allowed to draw from it when you retire. In other words, if you have a pension from someone besides the govt, or if you were smart enough to put money into an IRA or 401K, you can forget getting any of your FICA money back.

Next will come health care. All “optional” health care will be eliminated, with the govt deciding what is and isn’t optional. Then the old, or anyone else who has outlived their usefullness will be told it’s time to die, in order to preserve the resources for someone who can still generate revenue for govt.

After that will come social services.

MarkTheGreat on March 23, 2009 at 4:05 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

Probably the same 84% who thought the Republicans still controlled both houses of Congress last November.

MarkTheGreat on March 23, 2009 at 4:07 PM

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

It’s, what, three months in? Not even? Give it time. Bush inherited financial issues, too. His image totally worked out.

amerpundit on March 23, 2009 at 4:07 PM

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

Dude (or dudette), it’s one thing to inherit a mess; it’s wholly another to pour gasoline on the fire. I thought the Messiah was going to solve all the problems Bush created. You make it sound like he’s totally helpless and incompetent.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on March 23, 2009 at 4:08 PM

MarkTheGreat on March 23, 2009 at 4:05 PM

Pretty accurate. There has been a white paper circulating in DC for a couple of years on means-testing social security. I expect it to happen within 5-7 years. If you have a pension or other investments, you don’t get ss. Makes sense, as it punishes the responsible and rewards the irresponsible, just like the other gov’t programs.

Vashta.Nerada on March 23, 2009 at 4:09 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

Bullshit

The dems started this long slide with FDR’s policies.

Carter made it worse.

Clinton hardened the bullshit CRA.

Obama pulled the trigger after Bush loaded the gun for him.

izoneguy on March 23, 2009 at 4:09 PM

Troll Rule #1 – Always Blame Boooosh!

If I wanted to live in Zimbabwe, I’d move there. I’d would not be allowed to own property and they would probably kill me, but other than that it would be okay.

kingsjester on March 23, 2009 at 4:10 PM

My folks are retired, both on fat government pensions, are very well off financially and carrying a medium-sized mortgage on a five-acre ranch.

My sister’s family is on a single income, with the sole breadwinner a teacher (not the best profession to be in here in the People’s Republic of Kaleefornia). They carry a sizeable but servicable mortgage.

I carry about thirty grand in student loans and work in the private sector.

So…part of me is praying for hyperinflation so people like my sister and I can pay off our loans with a week’s pay, and another part doesn’t want to see my parents lose their retirement homestead, which they want to see passed on to their kids and grandkids.

Hell, if the crap really hits the fan the plan is to pack up my wife, my father-in-law, the dog, and as much ammo and food as we can carry and haul a$$ to the family farm. So I’m a bit conflicted. :)

TheMightyMonarch on March 23, 2009 at 4:11 PM

I saw Judd Gregg on PMSNBC with Norah O’Donnell about an hour ago. She was putting him over the coals in her “I am interviewing a Republican” voice. He slayed her. She had all kinds of ammunition which he shot down consistently. What does she do next? She interviews the Governor of Maryland and gives him a total kiss up spot where he called Palin a fringe governor. Of course she didnt have Gregg on with O’Malley, that might qualify as journalism or something.

msmveritas on March 23, 2009 at 4:12 PM

30 years of over consumption. Do people really need 72″ Plasma televisions? Yes, it is capitalism…and capitalism works well when it is left alone. National savings is meager. But, the recent events have forced many to start making decisions they should have made ten or twenty years ago…living within their means.

National bankruptcy? Not at all impossible. Printing money like it was the glory days of Weimar is not all that hard to conceive. Should all of Obama’s plans and intentions be allowed to go forward without so much as a whimper, so much as token resistance, we could very well see the US Dollar on par with the Zimbabwean dollar…worth less than the paper it is printed on.

But, maybe, this is what is needed.

I do not believe that citizens who have paid their bills, lived within their means, and tried to follow common-sense budgeting should be made to pay for the extreme stupidity of several million Americans who decided that even if it was too good to be true did it anyway…

Unfortunately, that nanny-statism that Obama believes is the answer, is gonig to make things a lot worse before things start to get better.

1398 days to go before this Administration is history.

coldwarrior on March 23, 2009 at 4:14 PM

When I got married in 1970 a friend of mine’s parent slipped a “little’ cash in the wedding card. They gave us about 100 blllion marks issued by the Weimar government. Governments like ours don’t go bankrugpt. They pay off their debt in very cheap currency.

jerryofva on March 23, 2009 at 4:04 PM

That is awesome.
But, wouldn’t the money be antique? Sure, they printed a lot of it then, but how much of it is still around (though I bet the 1 mark bill would be worth a lot more).

Count to 10 on March 23, 2009 at 4:15 PM

Mighty @4:11PM

You won’t be able to pay off your loans if we have hyperinflation. Your loans will be hyperinflated as well as your weekly pay.

Vince on March 23, 2009 at 4:15 PM

The dem/Obama recession.

Johan Klaus on March 23, 2009 at 4:15 PM

You will have a barter (feudal) economy, with people planting gardens in their back yard (or communal roof top), and keeping pigs and or chickens in the garage, or basement.

Assuming a relatively peaceful society absent marauding gangs, or out of control militias and warlords, perhaps even then.

Skandia Recluse on March 23, 2009 at 4:18 PM

You won’t be able to pay off your loans if we have hyperinflation. Your loans will be hyperinflated as well as your weekly pay.

Vince on March 23, 2009 at 4:15 PM

Only if the rate is floating. On a fixed rate loan, you make out like a bandit, and the banks go under.

MarkTheGreat on March 23, 2009 at 4:18 PM

You will have a barter (feudal) economy, with people planting gardens in their back yard (or communal roof top), and keeping pigs and or chickens in the garage, or basement.

Assuming a relatively peaceful society absent marauding gangs, or out of control militias and warlords, perhaps even then.

Skandia Recluse on March 23, 2009 at 4:18 PM

Well, then, I’m screwed.

Count to 10 on March 23, 2009 at 4:19 PM

Pretty accurate. There has been a white paper circulating in DC for a couple of years on means-testing social security. I expect it to happen within 5-7 years. If you have a pension or other investments, you don’t get ss. Makes sense, as it punishes the responsible and rewards the irresponsible, just like the other gov’t programs.

Vashta.Nerada on March 23, 2009 at 4:09 PM

This would only work to a point, right? Wouldn’t there be a tipping point where there are far more people contributing but getting nothing than there are people benefiting from it? At that point, wouldn’t the majority support politicians that would get rid of it?

JadeNYU on March 23, 2009 at 4:21 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

So 5 out of 6 people believe liberal propaganda. Doesn’t make it true.

I’m reminded of a line from Camelot… “Repetition, Pelly, is not evidence.”

malclave on March 23, 2009 at 4:21 PM

When you are borrowing money from yourself, aren’t you already there?

tarpon on March 23, 2009 at 4:22 PM

In 1999 I went to Laos with a friend of mine. When we entered Laos, we exchanged our Thai Baht for Lao Kip. One USD was worth about 5850 Kip. We were there 10 days and at one point exchanged $100 for kip. We ended up with a huge stack of bills. When we left, the exchange rate was about 8000 kip to the USD because the Lao government was printing huge amounts of money to build new roads. They wouldn’t buy back their own money when we left.

Obambi wants to make the dollar comparable to the kip. That way, it’ll be easier to get new money printed with his picture on it.

AubieJon on March 23, 2009 at 4:24 PM

I think it will not look like Zimbabwe. Should the world turn its back on America and we have to pay enourmous prices for raw materials we will have hyperinflation and we will have to look inward. Domestic production of energy will go through the roof and the government will have to lower taxs and the amount of money it drains from the private sector. Domestic prodution of agricultural goods will go through the roof, trade will go up and domestic subsidies will go by the way side. And we would actually be stronger for it.

Theworldisnotenough on March 23, 2009 at 4:25 PM

Governments cannot run Ponzi schemes, accumulating ever-higher amounts of debt.

Ahem…

cryptojunkie on March 23, 2009 at 4:25 PM

You will have a barter (feudal) economy, with people planting gardens in their back yard (or communal roof top), and keeping pigs and or chickens in the garage, or basement.

Assuming a relatively peaceful society absent marauding gangs, or out of control militias and warlords, perhaps even then.

Sure, after the massive starvation and/or destitution of a good chunk of the surburban/urban population that doesn’t know the first thing about growing food or animal husbandry.

Unfortunately I’m one of the suburbanites mentioned above, but at least we have a huge backyard with enough room for a garden, chicken coop and rabbit run. Just need to add in some nail boards lining the fences to discourage looters and marauders and we’re all set. :)

TheMightyMonarch on March 23, 2009 at 4:26 PM

Oh yeah the Fed may go belly up as well. The treasury will have to print the dollar as silver certificates instead.

Theworldisnotenough on March 23, 2009 at 4:26 PM

At that point, wouldn’t the majority support politicians that would get rid of it?

JadeNYU on March 23, 2009 at 4:21 PM

No. At that point it would be a true safety net/welfare program that we wouldn’t want to cut. We aren’t going to let old people starve on the streets.

myrenovations on March 23, 2009 at 4:26 PM

This was Zimbabwe in September 2007. The man in the picture needed to pay his restaurant tab, and he made a point of paying in cash … all Z$7.6 million of it.

Glad you explained the photo. I thought it was an ACORN meeting.

highhopes on March 23, 2009 at 4:26 PM

Oh and our military industrial complex will be very busy selling weapons while we draw down our troops around the world.

Theworldisnotenough on March 23, 2009 at 4:27 PM

Glad you explained the photo. I thought it was an ACORN meeting.

highhopes on March 23, 2009 at 4:26 PM

HAHA.

Theworldisnotenough on March 23, 2009 at 4:27 PM

I’m reminded of a line from Camelot… “Repetition, Pelly, is not evidence.”

malclave on March 23, 2009 at 4:21 PM

Joseph Goebbels would disagree.

Wethal on March 23, 2009 at 4:28 PM

I have a little collection of Inflation reminders for our little girl to learn from:
Several 100 Trillion-dollar brand-new Zimbabwe notes (and an rapid-inflation series of 2007-2008 Zimbabwe dollars, from $1 straight up through the new 100 trillion dollar notes), a bunch of 1923 500 Million Mark notes from the Weimar Republic, and, my favorite, the all-time inflation king, the 1946 100 QUINTILLION-pengo note from Hungary.
A quintillion is a million trillion, by the way.

Then I hold a 1946 Mexican gold 50-Peso coin with over 1.2 ounces of gold in it in my hand and know that is real money, unlike the crappy Obama dollars that we will soon be getting from our US banks, unfortunately.

TexasJew on March 23, 2009 at 4:28 PM

So 5 out of 6 people believe liberal propaganda. Doesn’t make it true.

I’m reminded of a line from Camelot… “Repetition, Pelly, is not evidence.”

malclave on March 23, 2009 at 4:21 PM

Repetition is evidence for the Dems today, unfortunately. Like with every single issue effecting us today like, oh, I don’t know, Iraq and the economic mess. The Dems seem to have selective amnesia on everything from money to war. I mean, ya know, it doesn’t matter that Clinton and the Dems are the ones who deregulated banks and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, or that Clinton claimed for basically all 8 years of his presidency that Saddam Hussein was a threat to his neighbors and the world. They can just blame it on Bush and the idiotic public eats it all up. Hopefully this Blame Bush for Everything” will end once the American public realizes that spending trillions of dollars more doesn’t help the situation, it may only worsen it. Then people like Nice343 can take their ignorant arguments and shove them up their collective asses. :)

NathanG on March 23, 2009 at 4:29 PM

What does she do next? She interviews the Governor of Maryland and gives him a total kiss up spot where he called Palin a fringe governor. Of course she didnt have Gregg on with O’Malley, that might qualify as journalism or something.

msmveritas on March 23, 2009 at 4:12 PM

Noted barfly Martin O’Malley has some nerve calling Sarah a fringe governor. Unless he means she is at the top of the list of best governors, while he is at the very bottom.

When this state crashes, and it will eventually, it will make California look like a picnic.

Of course, O’Malley will be off somewhere playing rock star when it happens…

Nat Hound on March 23, 2009 at 4:34 PM

This 1980 Time Magazine story about inflation is interesting, and sobering. Like this:

The true danger of any inflation, especially hyperinflation, is that it will ultimately destroy the sinews of society: when money loses its value, the wise spend and speculate, while only fools save and invest. The public turns cynical about government, and everything, especially work, appears meaningless. Describing the impact of runaway inflation in 1791 during the French Revolution, Chronicler Louis Blanc later wrote: “Commerce was dead; betting took its place.” History’s great inflations have almost always been followed by a dictator who promised among other things to restore the currency’s value. Napoleon, Hitler and Mao Tse-tun all rode the power on the back of huperinflation [sic].

Buy Danish on March 23, 2009 at 4:36 PM

highhopes on March 23, 2009 at 4:26 PM

LOLOL

becki51758 on March 23, 2009 at 4:37 PM

Tarpon. The answer is yes.

Angry Dumbo on March 23, 2009 at 4:37 PM

A 500 million Mark Banknote, Weimar Republic

Link

trigon on March 23, 2009 at 4:39 PM

Great news! Everybody’s a millionaire!
/

Rhinoboy on March 23, 2009 at 4:41 PM

Skandia Recluse on March 23, 2009 at 4:18 PM

I agree there would be bartering, but my fear is more of the second part of your statement. Corrupt police, home invasions, etc. are what I would add.

I guess I’m screwed too.

jcheney on March 23, 2009 at 4:42 PM

So who’s buying gold?

Theworldisnotenough on March 23, 2009 at 4:42 PM

My guess is that we get a military dictatorship and a new currency.

Then, the fun really starts.

trigon on March 23, 2009 at 4:44 PM

Noted barfly Martin O’Malley has some nerve calling Sarah a fringe governor. Unless he means she is at the top of the list of best governors, while he is at the very bottom.

I assure you that was not what he or Norah were implying. She had him repeat the phrase fringe and explain. He made a sarcastic comment about how she only accepted 69% and then went on about how she and a few other fringe GOP govs never miss an opportunity to get their face in the media. Umm, so what was he doing there but getting his face in the media.

msmveritas on March 23, 2009 at 4:44 PM

trigon on March 23, 2009 at 4:44 PM

Which model: Galtieri or Pinochet? I know which one I would prefer.

PimFortuynsGhost on March 23, 2009 at 4:46 PM

I think the stimulus is working!~

My daughter got her notice that her UC will go up under Obama’s stimulus bill—going up a whole $25.00 a week! or was that 2 weeks…anyway, she is soo excited! Thrilled! What to do with all that extra money? Buy a car maybe?

becki51758 on March 23, 2009 at 4:48 PM

I assure you that was not what he or Norah were implying. She had him repeat the phrase fringe and explain. He made a sarcastic comment about how she only accepted 69% and then went on about how she and a few other fringe GOP govs never miss an opportunity to get their face in the media. Umm, so what was he doing there but getting his face in the media.

msmveritas on March 23, 2009 at 4:44 PM

O’Malley is completely insufferable. This state will deserve what it has coming if he isn’t shown the door come 2010.

Once he’s safely out of office, he’ll have all the time in the world to hang out in bars and play in his god-awful band.

Nat Hound on March 23, 2009 at 4:49 PM

Obambi wants to make the dollar comparable to the kip. That way, it’ll be easier to get new money printed with his picture on it.
AubieJon on March 23, 2009 at 4:24 PM

…100 Trillion-dollar brand-new Zimbabwe USA notes…
TexasJew on March 23, 2009 at 4:28 PM

Well, Obama said he doesn’t look like the other guys on the dollar bills. He’s going for the soon-to-be printed one with oh so many more zeros on it.

Zero on the zeros. Has a catchy ring to it, don’t it?

Greg Toombs on March 23, 2009 at 4:57 PM

Vashta.Nerada on March 23, 2009 at 4:09 PM

Re: Social Security means testing.

The way the program was originally sold to the US, it was because the old, and infirmed who were without income were completely destitute, living on hand outs or charity, or nothing.

Sometime in the sixties it turned into a middle class retirement fund.

In my opinion, means testing returns social security to what it was originally intended to be. The only way to save social security is a prosperous economy where companies make profits, labor finds good jobs at fair wages, and those who save for retirement don’t need social security.

The only way to get that is less government intrusion (not less government regulation, the regulations we already have are mostly sufficient), and tax cuts for individuals and for business. Eliminating a gizzillion pages of the tax code by removing special exemptions for special cases and special interests.

I don’t ever expect to see it again in what life I have left.

Skandia Recluse on March 23, 2009 at 4:59 PM

We’ll know before long, won’t we.

mchristian on March 23, 2009 at 5:06 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

They’re not paying attention. A wise man sees trouble coming.

INC on March 23, 2009 at 4:04 PM

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.
- Charles Mackay

MB4 on March 23, 2009 at 5:09 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

how about you show us proof that the republicans caused this mess. oh thats right you cant because the democrats truly did cause this mess.either you are truly ignorant enough to believe that load of crap or you are posting this crap just to annoy the decent people who actually have something constructive to discuss on this thread with that being said either go do some research or shut up.

lees on March 23, 2009 at 5:17 PM

This Argentine blogger talks about what life was like.Surviving in Argentinia

I used to vacation at a resort that a lot of Argentines came to. They would say, “oh you didn’t meet us last year, our country was broke last year.” So I think life will go up and down with dramatic peaks a valleys, like Argentinia, if we do go bankrupt.

PattyJ on March 23, 2009 at 5:20 PM

Bush left a recession, obama is going full steam ahead to make it a depression.

sonofdy on March 23, 2009 at 5:24 PM

Skandia Recluse on March 23, 2009 at 4:18 PM

Michelle Obama planting her victory garden wasn’t an off-handed thing and was actually helpful given what her husband is about to do to America. The “solution” underway is (un)sustainable neo-feudalism for the masses. They don’t want sudden anarchy if food shortages occur, nor do they want to announce warnings and create panic. So the First Lady encouraging people to grow their own food this spring is the right play. She should also talk about how the White House has many months of emergency food storage and it’s a smart idea if you can afford it. Hey, there’s an idea for government promotional vouchers for the poor instead of the current priority of digital TV conversion.

History’s great inflations have almost always been followed by a dictator who promised among other things to restore the currency’s value. Napoleon, Hitler and Mao Tse-tun all rode the power on the back of huperinflation [sic].

Buy Danish on March 23, 2009 at 4:36 PM

There’s no doubt as the global economy spirals down that questionable leaders in many nations will be looking to rise up and lead internal crackdowns and external wars.

econavenger on March 23, 2009 at 5:25 PM

Capitalism requires savings. For generations we have been increasing wealth in this country and using that wealth to fuel our investments in the future.

Now, our government is pursuing policies that are destroying that wealth. By limiting our development of natural resources, we are forced to send our wealth overseas to purchase these goods. By financing more and more of our debt with foreign investors, we will be required to send more and more of our wealth abroad to service this debt.

And when our wealth is gone and we still owe fortunes to foreign governments, they will have the right to come here and take their payments in those natural resources.

Welcome to the Third World!

Laurence on March 23, 2009 at 5:25 PM

msmveritas on March 23, 2009 at 4:12 PM

The governor of Maryland, my state, is a sad specimen.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on March 23, 2009 at 5:27 PM

So…part of me is praying for hyperinflation so people like my sister and I can pay off our loans with a week’s pay

What about your mortgage? With hyperinflation your interest rate on your mortgage goes into outer space. You can no longer pay your mortgage. Hyperinflation is the doomsday scenario.

keep the change on March 23, 2009 at 5:35 PM

Yes the Bush fans will blame Obama and the Obama fans will blame Bush.

Thoughts…they are the reason we are in this mess, you didn’t come up with them but you take them as your own. Too many thoughts, not enough thinkers.

LevStrauss on March 23, 2009 at 5:43 PM

What about your mortgage? With hyperinflation your interest rate on your mortgage goes into outer space. You can no longer pay your mortgage. Hyperinflation is the doomsday scenario.

keep the change

This only applies if you made the mistake of getting a variable-rate mortgage. I’ve NEVER understood that given the relative volatility of interest rates when spread across 15 or 30 years.

cannonball on March 23, 2009 at 5:49 PM

Ed, I was surprised by one fact you gave in your article – that you are 39. For such a young man you have great insight. I’ve been following you since the Captains Quarters days.

Many Americans do not travel so have no personal experiences with countries suffering from high inflation and high unemployment. With that comes a terrible situation – people literally starving to death and others who live on the streets, and die there. A ‘poor’ American has a cell phone, a food bank to visit, and may even have a car and extra clothes. The true poor of other countries call that rich.

Americans must realize that we need to pull back spending on pork projects and spend money wisely on infrastructure, then let the markets create jobs and stability. Crushing taxes will eliminate the philanthropic donations that literally keep the poor fed. The citizens of this country give more to charity than all the western world combined. Increase my tax burden and my giving will diminish – because I won’t have the discretionary funds to give any more.

Retired Sailor on March 23, 2009 at 5:50 PM

Yes the Bush fans will blame Obama and the Obama fans will blame Bush.

Thoughts…they are the reason we are in this mess, you didn’t come up with them but you take them as your own. Too many thoughts, not enough thinkers.

Knowing how you got sick is quite important when determining the cure. Bush is no saint, but it wasn’t his administration that made this financial bed we are sleeping in. The Dems under Team Obama are applying leeches to a patient that is bleeding to death and telling is “there are those that think we should do nothing…”

No, you brain-deadk, hollow sonofabitch! We think the RIGHT thing should be done, not ANYTHING!

cannonball on March 23, 2009 at 5:51 PM

Yes the Bush fans will blame Obama and the Obama fans will blame Bush.

Thoughts…they are the reason we are in this mess, you didn’t come up with them but you take them as your own. Too many thoughts, not enough thinkers.

Knowing how you got sick is quite important when determining the cure. Bush is no saint, but it wasn’t his administration that made this financial bed we are sleeping in. The Dems under Team Obama are applying leeches to a patient that is bleeding to death and telling is “there are those that think we should do nothing…”

No, you brain-deadk, hollow moron! We think the RIGHT thing should be done, not ANYTHING!

cannonball on March 23, 2009 at 5:53 PM

Recession is over.

getalife on March 23, 2009 at 5:56 PM

Bush left a recession, obama is going full steam ahead to make it a depression

I couldn’t agree more. It really burns me up when people just say “It’s Bush’s fault” when they know that he’s not the only one at fault. It reminds me of children saying, “But he did it too!” Spare me. If that’s the only argument that Democrats have, they’re going to sink fast in the 2010 elections. I’m on the fence on whether the stimulus will work, but I’m not one of those people who thinks that everything that will go wrong in 2 or 3 years is still Bush’s fault. I don’t even agree with his tax cuts or his runaway spending, but I would like to think that I have enough sense to know that blaming Bush isn’t an intelligent or mature argument to shield Obama from any and all criticism.

NathanG on March 23, 2009 at 5:57 PM

Recession is over.

getalife on March 23, 2009 at 5:56 PM

On what planet?

NathanG on March 23, 2009 at 5:59 PM

WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans

nice343 on March 23, 2009 at 4:00 PM

Not that I really think your post requires a response, but…perhaps if Obama hadn’t made it messier, and messier, and messier – it’s only March, how the he11 much farther into debt can he spend us between now and 2012?

uncivilized on March 23, 2009 at 6:00 PM

This only applies if you made the mistake of getting a variable-rate mortgage. I’ve NEVER understood that given the relative volatility of interest rates when spread across 15 or 30 years.

LOL. No. Your mortgage term is only about 5 years, then it has to be renewed. The banks do not lock themselves in for much longer than that to protect themselves against inflation. When the time comes to renew and America is experiencing hyperinflation, and the interest rate is 30%, you will forfeit your home.

keep the change on March 23, 2009 at 6:06 PM

Maybe the Russian dude was right. The US breaks up into a loose confederacy of states for “common defense”. The toxic assests are allocated according to states and they are either sold or declared dead. The companies holding them are on the hook.

The South is the conservative stronghold, the Northeast the liberal Euro weenie group. Others are in between. We develop alliances with our former country and proceed from there (what does that mean? I don’t know, but we are just speculating). The UN determines that we still owe $billion so we pay them with inflated ex US dollars.

Everyone has gardens and grow their own food. The capitalist among the the groups prospers and the libs begin taking their money to pay for welfare. Does this sound familiar?

Folks, we’re doomed. Start making your own beer and growing food, stock up on ammunition and get ready, it’s a new world.

Country boys will survive!

hip shot on March 23, 2009 at 6:14 PM

Sure, after the massive starvation and/or destitution of a good chunk of the surburban/urban population that doesn’t know the first thing about growing food or animal husbandry.

Which is one reason I don’t understand the appeal of Obama’s policies in urban areas. Unrest is gonna hit those folks first, and hard. Inflation in a big city? No gracias, senor. Central Park is pretty, but it’s too cold to camp there year round for most folks.

funky chicken on March 23, 2009 at 6:24 PM

When you are borrowing money from yourself, aren’t you already there?

tarpon on March 23, 2009 at 4:22 PM

That’s my understanding. A country doesn’t declare bankruptcy. Which court would the filing be made in?

A country declares bankruptcy by printing money to pay its way.

Which means you’ll be paying $12,000 per tune on iTunes.

Wait till the college aged hopers and changers confront that rude fact. They’ll be scraping Obama stickers off their skateboards and hybrid cars faster than you can say “Yes we can!”

jeff_from_mpls on March 23, 2009 at 6:24 PM

keep the change on March 23, 2009 at 6:06 PM

Huh? I’ve got a 30 year fixed mortgage.

funky chicken on March 23, 2009 at 6:25 PM

But every one is a millionaire.
Thats gotta count fer sumpin’.

TheSitRep on March 23, 2009 at 6:29 PM

PattyJ on March 23, 2009 at 5:20 PM

Lessons from Argentina’s economic collapse

econavenger on March 23, 2009 at 6:31 PM

trigon on March 23, 2009 at 4:44 PM

Which model: Galtieri or Pinochet? I know which one I would prefer.

PimFortuynsGhost on March 23, 2009 at 4:46 PM

I wouldn’t look forward to either, myself. I’d think we might come up with something different given the character of our armed forces. But, it’s going to depend on the character of the military strongman. If we get a David Petraeus-type it could be tolerable. If we get an Alexander Haig or a Wes Clarke, not so much, I think.

trigon on March 23, 2009 at 6:38 PM

“WSJ poll 84% believe Obama inherited mess created by republicans”

The seeds were sown with laws passed in 1997, 1998, and 1999 during the go-go Clinton years. It took 10 years for them to “bear fruit”.

crosspatch on March 23, 2009 at 7:05 PM

I suspect “retirement” will soon become an archaic word.

rbj on March 23, 2009 at 4:02 PM

Ever read The Giver?

bluelightbrigade on March 23, 2009 at 7:27 PM

I agree with Ed that it looks like Zimbabwe … with one exception – Zimbabwe is held together by a dictator with a forceful hand – who uses whatever means are necessary to keep the population under control there.

We, however, will have a WHOLE LOT of political unrest. It will make the 60’s look like a Disney World street parade. Ultimately the government will have to either completely throw out the constitution in order to adapt Mugabe-type tactics to maintain order or we will see quite a few – probably several rebellions.

It may happen before then. At some point – someone smart is going to figure out that the first one’s to leave the building have the best chance of escaping the debt. The problem is going to be retiring the debt – and it’s going to turn into a “hot potato”. Certain States are going to deny any liability for the debt (SC, MS, LA, AL, AK are already making a case for one in refusing portions of the porkulous). It’s going to be “State on State” with inter-state alliances being struck and everyone with one goal in mind – run from the debt!

HondaV65 on March 23, 2009 at 7:52 PM

What about your mortgage? With hyperinflation your interest rate on your mortgage goes into outer space. You can no longer pay your mortgage. Hyperinflation is the doomsday scenario.

No mortgage, the property is family-owned and is free and clear. My only worry is that the lunatics in the California legislature will drop the bomb and repeal Prop 13. We’re enjoying our paltry $1200 in yearly property taxes, but with a grain of guilt that those are effectively being subsidized by new homeowners being fleeced.

But again, if the state collects 10% in income taxes, 9% in sales taxes, 1-2% in property taxes, and increased various fees up the wazoo…yet we still run a budget deficit. Any sane person would ask “Hey, maybe we spend too much and drive too many people out with burdensome taxes”. Sacramento on the other hands asks “Hey, we’re running deficits! We should totally get more money!”

I’ll repeat it again…property taxes are repugnant, immoral, and abhorrent. No property owner in California is truly secure on their own land, even if owned free and clear.

TheMightyMonarch on March 23, 2009 at 8:02 PM

The problem is going to be retiring the debt – and it’s going to turn into a “hot potato”.

Hey, we could just default and see Chinese warships off the coast of California. At least those guys know how to run budget surpluses.

Then again, they’re buying our worthless dollars with it. Not sure which government is more incompetent at this point.

TheMightyMonarch on March 23, 2009 at 8:06 PM

Hey, we could just default and see Chinese warships off the coast of California. At least those guys know how to run budget surpluses.

It won’t work that way – we’ll pay them with worthless dollars and they’ll have to accept it. But by that time – the standard of living in the US will have eroded to nothing and people will be looking for something else.

Imagine … the dollar goes into hyperinflation and the government is taxing it’s citizens to death to get control of the debt.

Alaska – an independently minded state anyway – decides it wants to leave the union but whoever the Prez is says “Nope! You have a share of this debt”.

Putin (from Russia) steps in – says “Pssst … Alaska – you can be independent and Russia will guarantee your security”

And Russian and Alaska come to terms.

This can happen to virtually any state – with any other nation striking a security deal. There will be no lack of nations to guarantee such security – since we have many “friends” who would love to see the end of the U.S.A.

People laugh at the Russian professor who’s predicting breakup – but it’s a plausible scenario I think.

HondaV65 on March 23, 2009 at 8:14 PM

Why aren’t Obama’s numbers tanking? Why would anyone say they were satisfied witht he job he is doing? Do they want to be a banrupt nation? They may. I can’t figure out why more people weren’t more cautious about handing power over to someone as inexperienced as Obama in the first place.

I guess I just don’t think like most Americans today. It is so clear to me that Obama is the worst thing to ever happen to this country… yet most Americans seems to like him. It’s so discouraging.

petunia on March 23, 2009 at 8:15 PM

Makes me wonder how you’d buy something from a vending machine. … Another unintended consequence.

AeroSpear on March 23, 2009 at 9:20 PM

I know that I’ve heard complaints about deficits as long as I can remember.

Jennifer, you have had your head in the sand for much too long. What you have heard about is the accumulation of national budget deficits which is a very small part of the problem. A much bigger part of the problem is the things which are not in the budget e.g. Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Your children and my grandchildren will be extremely lucky if they can leave a healthy economy to their children.

burt on March 23, 2009 at 9:21 PM

Why aren’t Obama’s numbers tanking? Why would anyone say they were satisfied witht he job he is doing? Do they want to be a banrupt nation? They may. I can’t figure out why more people weren’t more cautious about handing power over to someone as inexperienced as Obama in the first place.

I guess I just don’t think like most Americans today. It is so clear to me that Obama is the worst thing to ever happen to this country… yet most Americans seems to like him. It’s so discouraging.

petunia on March 23, 2009 at 8:15 PM

Well, there are a few things here. His number are decreasing slowly but steadily. Americans want to give him a chance, and that is why he is trying to ram through such extreme measures so quickly. Democrats seem to get this – remember Hillarycare?

In addition to that, the people get there information from the MSM. Remember the MSM used to freak out about Bush deficits a fifth of what Obama is offering? People don’t remember the numbers, or understand them and the media certainly isn’t going to remind them.

At the same time the media will continue the “It is Bush’s fault” meme for as long as they can.

My guess is that the reality TV heads will start to notice that his or her quality of life is declining under Obama while it never did no matter how much doom and gloom the media preached under Bush. But this takes time.

In the short term, let’s make sure we make it as easy as possible – Obama’s Trillion Dollar giveaway, the O-cession, Obama’s inflation, etc.

18-1 on March 23, 2009 at 9:26 PM

China has a history which instructs the Chines about hyperinflation. A former colleague of mine was brought up in Shanghai prior to the Japanese invasion. His father was paid in cash daily. My friend was the senior son. His job was to go to a market to spend all of the money on food as soon as his father brought the money home. If he waited until the next day, the money would not be enough to feed the family.

burt on March 23, 2009 at 9:32 PM

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