Oh my: GOP leads on Rasmussen’s generic ballot for first time in years
posted at 4:35 pm on March 17, 2009 by Allahpundit
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Via Moe Lane. The usual caveats apply — it’s early, it’s Rasmussen, it’s at odds with the GOP’s general popularity these days — but even an eeyore as stalwart as me is starved for good news. I’ll take it:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% said they would vote for their district’s Republican candidate while 39% would choose the Democrat.
Investors now favor Republicans by a 46% to 36% margin, while non-investors would vote Democratic by a 45% to 33% margin…
Over the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 39% to a high of 50%. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.
A glance at the sidebar at the link shows that Republicans got as close as a point last month and two points shortly after the election (when the generic ballot always tightens) but have never led dating back to 2007. Rasmussen’s not the only pollster suddenly showing the generic ballot a statistical dead heat, either. Exit question: To what do we owe our sudden good fortune? Hmmm:
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Change!
BadgerHawk on March 17, 2009 at 4:38 PM
Hahahahahahhahhahahahahahahahaha.
Wethal on March 17, 2009 at 4:38 PM
lets see translate into a win, eight now Tedisco has a modest lead over Murphy, we can only hope this generic translates into votes on the ground.
rob verdi on March 17, 2009 at 4:39 PM
Hope and Change!
As in, out with the Democrat majority in 2010 and make Obama irrelevant in less than 2 years, can’t wait.
NoDonkey on March 17, 2009 at 4:39 PM
How is the Hope and Change working out for you
el rey on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
Easy answer: Obama. ;)
Kent18 on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
The same Pew poll that had Reps down on the GOP had more support for smaller govt, opposition to the bank and mortgage bailouts, etc.
Karl on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
Patience, grasshopper. By 2012 we will own the future. Let’s hope some competent leadership is there to meet the opportunity.
Scotsman on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
Most people don’t like having 40% of their wealth destroyed after 50% of it has already been destroyed, on top of being taxed on a higher rate on the profits they do make.
BadgerHawk on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
here it comes…
this may be the start of the war between the producers and the loafers writ large…
sven10077 on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
If this holds for a few weeks, I might believe it. You’ve made me a cynic, AP.
Repurblican on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
Don’t worry, we’ll find a way to srew it up.
myrenovations on March 17, 2009 at 4:40 PM
It’s really too late, the investors chose a socialist and for the next decade or so they will look at their balance sheets and rue the day they cast their lot with Obama.
eaglewingz08 on March 17, 2009 at 4:41 PM
The problem is that these idiots who say they’d vote Republican will forget what’s happening now, and they’ll listen to the load of crap-sunshine thrown at them by the MSM before the next elections.
AubieJon on March 17, 2009 at 4:41 PM
Quite likely.
ddrintn on March 17, 2009 at 4:42 PM
Oh dear, time for team bho to get acorn and la raza out. We can’t have this now can we?
L
letget on March 17, 2009 at 4:42 PM
Let’s say the GOP wins and continues with the current crappy stuff they did in the past. What’s the point?
Till the GOP figures out their small government and low tax core again, I don’t give a crap if they are in office or not.
lorien1973 on March 17, 2009 at 4:42 PM
Cue the Rasmussen bashing in 5….4….3….2….
CDeb on March 17, 2009 at 4:43 PM
This is serious Deja Vu. If the Republicans win the governor seat in NJ this fall (as they did in ‘93); then next year is looking more and more like 1994.
Norwegian on March 17, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Agreed. All this means is that people don’t like Obama. When we get some jackass up there who screws everything up (like another McCain) the identification will switch again.
John_Locke on March 17, 2009 at 4:43 PM
Maybe this is what Obama is “hope”ing for. He needs a Republican Congress to save his sorry arse a la BillyJeff. Remember how they hold him in such positive light?
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on March 17, 2009 at 4:44 PM
If this three ring circus in the White House fails to turn things around (which they will not), the MSM can flack for Democrat incumbents 24 x 7 and no one will care.
Incumbent Democrats will be getting thrown out of office in droves. Whether that means Republicans will take those elections, who knows. But Democrats are taking broadsides already and if things continue to worse, no amount of spin will save them.
NoDonkey on March 17, 2009 at 4:44 PM
Could it be there is a God? ;-)
kirkill on March 17, 2009 at 4:45 PM
Take the same poll come August, after 6 months of Hope and Change. Believe me, you’ll see some CHANGE then.
GarandFan on March 17, 2009 at 4:46 PM
The fickle American voters are already turning on him.
My collie says:
CyberCipher on March 17, 2009 at 4:46 PM
what ever happened in that race to replace Rahm Emanual?
DanMan on March 17, 2009 at 4:46 PM
No wonder Chuck is spewing.
Vashta.Nerada on March 17, 2009 at 4:46 PM
Concentrate on the economy, presenting fiscally responsible alternatives to the plans of Obama and the Pelosicrats. Go after the corruption, massive spending, and tax propositions. Beat Obama over the head with the “charge wounded soldiers for their healthcare” when he announces it.
amerpundit on March 17, 2009 at 4:47 PM
Never underestimate the sheer stupidity of the votersheeple.
AubieJon on March 17, 2009 at 4:47 PM
Frankly, I hope so.
Vashta.Nerada on March 17, 2009 at 4:48 PM
Thus saving Obama’s lame duck bacon for 2012. That’s the downside.
ddrintn on March 17, 2009 at 4:48 PM
This is what happens when you have idiots like Rahm Emmanuel and Paul Begala running White House strategy.
Yeah, attacking Rush Limbaugh was really smart.
Norwegian on March 17, 2009 at 4:50 PM
GOP’s New Slogan: Hey Independent voters, if you thought Bush made us look bad, just look what Obama is doing for the Democrats.
myrenovations on March 17, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Not necessarily. Independents didn’t question Clinton’s competence for the job.
Vashta.Nerada on March 17, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Giddy up!
CP on March 17, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Of course non-investors would favor Democratic. Gotta keep those welfare checks coming.
BacaDog on March 17, 2009 at 4:51 PM
Took less than eight weeks for the lipstick to start wearing off this pig.
Must be a record.
Too bad there are only a berjillion left to go.
**sigh**
seejanemom on March 17, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Well, remember that Clinton went right after ‘94 (welfare reform, deregulation, free-trade, etc) and was fortunate enough to face a uncharismatic Dole in ‘96.
I doubt Obama would learn from such a defeat, he would still be a hard leftist and the GOP will nominate someone with more charisma in ‘12.
Norwegian on March 17, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Want me to totally harsh your buzz?
Just think, if Obama were to realize what a miserable failure he has been and resigned, check out the line of succession:
Joe Biden
Nancy Pelosi
Robert Byrd
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Timothy Geithner
We are so screwed.
jeff_from_mpls on March 17, 2009 at 4:52 PM
Barack Obama has selected a leftist, David Hamilton, to be his first nominee for the federal bench. Hamilton is Obama’s nominee for a spot on the Seventh CIrcuit Court of Appeals. Appropriately enough, Hamilton reportedly was once a former fund-raiser for the radical activist outfit ACORN, a key Obama ally. He is also a former leader of the Indiana chapter of the ACLU.
Hamilton’s record as a federal district judge confirms his ultra-liberalism. Recently, he invalidated a law requiring the registration of sex offenders. He also prevented enforcement of an Indiana law that required information and a waiting period before an abortion. The Seventh Circuit (the court to which Hamilton now has been nominated) found that the law in question was materially identical to a law upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court in the Casey decision. It noted that no judge in the land, other than Hamilton, has found such a law invalid since Casey was decided. Apparently, Hamilton did not consider himself bound by decisions of the Supreme Court with which he strongly disagreed. (powerline)
Expect the rush to Socialism to continue, as Obama & Pelosi know full well that 2010 will likely go badly for them. Load up every public office with ultra Liberals that will hold offices for decades to come. These people have been calculating this day for years. They have a plan and they have the votes to pull the plan through, thanks to an ill informed electorate, a GOP that lacked a good candidate and leadership, a media that invested everything into the plan, and enough phony Republican sell-outs in the Senate to avoid the filibuster.
Keemo on March 17, 2009 at 4:52 PM
(-) Get the budget under control.
(-) Cut taxes for the middle class.
(-) A new era of transparency.
(-) Domestic oil production.
(-) End the practice of earmarks.
(-) Secure the borders.
(-) Protect the secret ballots for the American worker.
(-) Take care of our wounded soldiers.
amerpundit on March 17, 2009 at 4:52 PM
it’s a little early to get excited, but with the economy shedding 600,000+ jobs a month, i don’t see how it’s gonna somehow turn around on a dime to the point if at all so that people will be bullish on Obama. In ‘94 the economy had already been recovering for over 3 years(long before Clinton arrived) before the dems got thrown out on their ass.
gsherin on March 17, 2009 at 4:54 PM
Question three kind of sucked:
They didn’t provide an option for ‘mostly the result of government interfering in the market’.
Vashta.Nerada on March 17, 2009 at 4:54 PM
Yep. Teh One has a batting average of 0.000 on all of the above.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on March 17, 2009 at 4:55 PM
When Obama’s approval numbers fall below 50%, I think we can slow down this train wreck. I pray for that day to come very soon.
Keemo on March 17, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Gee, if only there were a charismatic Republican who is likable, who can pull literally tens of thousands to rallies, who embodies conservative principles. It seems as if it would be common sense to nominate someone like that.
Snowed In on March 17, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Good news since this year is looking more and more like 1984.
carbon_footprint on March 17, 2009 at 4:56 PM
They had a primary on March 3 –
Rep winner – Rosanna Pulido
Dem winner – Mike Quigley
Election is being held April 7
Prior to the Republican takeover in 1994 (which the winner only held it for 1 term) this district has had a Democrat in office since 1907.
Kelligan on March 17, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Shame the idiots hadn’t thought about it a little EARLIER…
tree hugging sister on March 17, 2009 at 4:59 PM
Don’t underestimate sheer voter rage, which is what will take place if this bumbling administration doesn’t improve things.
They’ll be looking to oust any incumbent and there are far more Democrat incumbents than Republican incumbents.
I’ll bet rage will trump stupidity.
NoDonkey on March 17, 2009 at 4:59 PM
For the last several years, the great unwashed America has undergone a steady and overwhelming onslaught of anti- republican propaganda from the main stream print and broadcast media. Accordingly, the repubs have not been able to do anything right. The repubs have to be 100% right, not 99%. If they are only 99%, according to the MSM they are 100% wrong (I think they use some kind of force multiplier).
It is a tribute to the collective common sense of the great unwashed (non arugula eaters) and the perseverance of talk radio and blogs like this that the people are getting a truth other than democratic “truth”. Congratulations AP. You must be doing something right.
Old Country Boy on March 17, 2009 at 4:59 PM
1994 all over again and this time. We can make him irrelevant by 2010.
NoDonkey on March 17, 2009 at 5:00 PM
Two things I can promise you. Ross Perot isn’t coming out of retirement to run for president, and the GOP isn’t going to run a candidate as god awful as Bob Dole.
Nat Hound on March 17, 2009 at 5:02 PM
With phony Republican “leaders” like John McCain and the alleged conservative intelligentsia like Frum, Douthat, Parker and Jeb Bush moaning about the dumb hillbilly mob that constitutes the party membership, I don’t see anybody on the scene who will be able to do anything at all with this development.
They’re more interested in impressing their spouses’ yuppy, boomer friends at the country club by emphasizing how they’re not like those nasty, evil Republicans everyone hears about on CNN and MSNBC. Why, they’re just like Democrats, only better!
Django on March 17, 2009 at 5:04 PM
The two greatest presidents the Republicans have ever had: Reagan and Obama.
keep the change on March 17, 2009 at 5:04 PM
I’ll take that bet.
lorien1973 on March 17, 2009 at 5:05 PM
I hope so!
AubieJon on March 17, 2009 at 5:06 PM
You cannot promise that we won’t run either Bob Dole or someone just as worse.
We are not very good at picking candidates.
myrenovations on March 17, 2009 at 5:06 PM
FIFY.
Snowed In on March 17, 2009 at 5:06 PM
I wonder what Republicans in Congress think they did to make this happen?
Shut up ??
tarpon on March 17, 2009 at 5:09 PM
Hmmm….Meghan-Rush-Frum, Meghan-Rush-Frum, Meghan-Rush-Frum…
I’d say RUSH.
Marcus on March 17, 2009 at 5:10 PM
From your lips to God’s ears! ;)
Kent18 on March 17, 2009 at 5:10 PM
Do “non-investors” think that their retirement funds are plucked from the asses of skittle-flavored unicorns or something?
Y-not on March 17, 2009 at 5:10 PM
Fix the “open primary” problem and we at least won’t have a candidate as awful as John McCain.
teke184 on March 17, 2009 at 5:11 PM
McCain was better than Dole.
Any of the 2012 front runners (you know who they are) are a better match for Obama than Dole was for Clinton. No offense to Bob Dole, but he’s on the short list of all-time flops. The best of a very bad lot…
Nat Hound on March 17, 2009 at 5:12 PM
The GOP will screw up near election time by going back to the “center” (really the left) and agreeing with Obama and the Dems like they did with the TARP before the election. McCain probably wins without voting for the bailout.
lavell12 on March 17, 2009 at 5:16 PM
so this explains Obama’s “decision” to go on Leno
gatorboy on March 17, 2009 at 5:16 PM
Now all that is left is to develop a plan to marginalize RINO traitors like McShamnesty and his fatty piggo daughter.
csdeven on March 17, 2009 at 5:16 PM
Nat Hound on March 17, 2009 at 5:12 PM
If Sarah Palin can raise between $100m-$150m by Nov. 2010 the GOP will not get a chance to pick a bad candidate.
technopeasant on March 17, 2009 at 5:16 PM
This is a good sign. Republicans need to stop the internecine warfare; and focus on the judgment errors and economic dangers of Obama’s and Congress’ policies.
Loxodonta on March 17, 2009 at 5:18 PM
Here’s the deal with this… I am not happy with the GOP but I will gladly vote for them over the alternative.
Chuck Schick on March 17, 2009 at 5:20 PM
Key lines in this survey:
The mission, and this admin. chose to accept it, keep the voting masses in the non-investor category.
msmveritas on March 17, 2009 at 5:03 PM
msmveritas on March 17, 2009 at 5:20 PM
People are realizing that the Democrats have B.O.
Patrick S on March 17, 2009 at 5:21 PM
Snowed In on March 17, 2009 at 4:55 PM
Gosh. Someone who talks to an audience and not down to an audience would be good, too.
I say Barry’s poll numbers drop under 50 % by August.
kingsjester on March 17, 2009 at 5:24 PM
That’s because the only Dole who was really into that campaign was Liddy.
myrenovations on March 17, 2009 at 5:25 PM
Two words: Hope & Change!
youngO on March 17, 2009 at 5:28 PM
Did Bob Dole ever state, explicitly or otherwise, that “We have nothing to fear with Bill Clinton in the White House?”
No?
Advantage: Dole.
Kent18 on March 17, 2009 at 5:28 PM
I don’t think it’ll take that long.
ddrintn on March 17, 2009 at 5:28 PM
It’s unfortunate that the GOP isn’t doing a better job of opposing Hussein.
I think, however, this trend in the polls will continue as long as BO keeps pushing hard left and while the economy continues in a Carter malaise.
wildcat84 on March 17, 2009 at 5:29 PM
Promised to cut deficit in half.
Claims largest middle class tax cut in history.
Transparency is what he ran on, and looking at whitehouse.gov he is doing more than any previous administration.
Domestic oil production is a non starter at sub $50 a barrel. Blame Exxon not Obama for that reality.
Earmarks can and will have their name changed once we reach a critical mass, and sadly there will be many Rs aiding and abetting this deception.
Securing the boarders how? Do you even think that sounds like an issue that will win votes? American voters aren’t so stupid to think a) it is possible to secure such large boarders, and b) that republicans will try any harder in the future than they did in the past to secure them.
Card Check is the only thing on your list that has any traction however the Rs are going to blow it if they take an anti populist tone and carry corporate water during these times. We need to come up with a way to sell our opposition as pro labor and not pro big biz.
This whole Legion garbage is going to back fire in a big way. Sometimes we Republicans are to clever by half. Watch Rahm turn this phony story into universal health care for all while we look like partisans playing politics with our troops.
barkolounger on March 17, 2009 at 5:38 PM
The two greatest presidents the Republicans have ever had: Reagan and Obama.
keep the change on March 17, 2009 at 5:04 PM
You betcha’!
sarahpalinfan99 on March 17, 2009 at 5:38 PM
If people were more serious about making the Carter/Obama connection, then I would have seen Obama’s head photoshopped onto Carter wearing that stupid cardigan by now.
/I have no Photoshop skills
//my other skills are debatable
Snowed In on March 17, 2009 at 5:39 PM
Did you believe everything at whitehouse.gov while Bush was in office? The Obama administration is as transparent as mud.
ddrintn on March 17, 2009 at 5:42 PM
I’ll take 1994 anyday over 1984(of the orweillian variety)
UNREPENTANT CONSERVATIVE CAPITOLIST on March 17, 2009 at 5:44 PM
The only reason Repubs are polling this highly is that this is a binary decision set.
When you only have two choices, you choose the least disasterous…
How about a new question…
If the Election were held tomorow, would you choose a Repub, a Dem, or if there was a viable third choice, the independent/third choice?
Romeo13 on March 17, 2009 at 5:44 PM
Bill clinton won, not because Bob Dole wad dull or bad. Clinton won because Perot was glib and bad and sucked a lot of libertarian repubs and indies from Dole. Clinton never got more than 43% of the vote. That doesn’t make Dole bad. It certainly doesn’t make Clinton some thaumaturgist. You guys just swallowed the MSM pablum.
Old Country Boy on March 17, 2009 at 5:45 PM
Awesome.
myrenovations on March 17, 2009 at 5:45 PM
Sarah Palin?
Steve Z on March 17, 2009 at 5:47 PM
Or….
InvestorsNet TAXPAYERS now favor Republicans by a 46% to 36% margin, while non-investorsTaxpayers would vote Democratic by a 45% to 33% margin.fixed it…
Romeo13 on March 17, 2009 at 5:47 PM
Yeah, those same evil Libertarians who voted for Bush twice, and then was betrayed by his implementation of a Big Government Social Con agenda…
Romeo13 on March 17, 2009 at 5:50 PM
I detect as certain disrespect for Bob Dole from you liberservatives.
bob Dole lost, not because he was dull or bad, but because Ross Perot was glib and bad (just like another Texan Paul). Perot sucked the libertarian repub and indie vote from Dole, which left Clinton with 43% of the solid demo vote. Clinton never got more than 43% of the vote. How about that you dems that thought W stole the presidency from Gore? It was Clinton that “stole it” using your logic. And, Dole didn’t lose the election per se, the “I am the only true pure conservative” faction lost it for him. Dole was better than anything that has come down the pike since!
Old Country Boy on March 17, 2009 at 5:56 PM
Imagine if the GOP gets its collective act together, how well they’ll poll?
Doughboy on March 17, 2009 at 5:56 PM
Not to mention the ability to send the moonbats into apoplectic fits.
ddrintn on March 17, 2009 at 5:59 PM
Or Jonathan Krohn from CPAC.
Wethal on March 17, 2009 at 6:00 PM
Steve Z on March 17, 2009 at 6:00 PM
Or, could it be that Libertarians liked his messege a lot better?
Bob Dole was a LOOONNNGGG time Washington insider. He was part of the beltway problem, and was the candidate of a direction that many of us saw and didn’t like.
Dole was NOT a Fiscal Conservative, he was part of growing Washington for many many years.
Perot did not STEAL votes, he earned them… and for you to say otherwise shows that you are believe more in the Republican party, than the idea of Democracy, and voting for whom you wish.
Romeo13 on March 17, 2009 at 6:00 PM
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