Specter: The public’s not being told just how bad the economy is
posted at 7:36 pm on March 9, 2009 by Allahpundit
The D-word is duly deployed, sending an icy chill down your humble correspondent’s back. The problem with trying to take this seriously is that Team Barry (and, in Specter’s case, his allies) has been so shameless and cynical in using the downturn as an “opportunity” that there’s no way to distinguish earnest warnings from exploitative fearmongering. E.g., is Specter on the level here or is he trumping up the extent of the crisis to justify his stimulus vote after the fact as a necessary heresy that saved the world?
Being a congenital pessimist, I swallow hard and assume that the end is indeed nigh.
“Our economic problems are enormously serious — more serious than is publicly disclosed. And I think we’re on the brink of a depression,” he told reporters at the state Capitol…
He reiterated Monday that he felt passage of the legislation was more important than protecting his Senate seat.
“Had there been no stimulus, I think we’d have gone right off the edge,” he said. “I think we’re pretty close to the edge anyway, to be very brutally blunt about it.”
A friend who lives in Manhattan told me the other day that no one she knows is behaving as though we’re on the verge of falling off a cliff. I’m not behaving that way myself, frankly: I don’t have many luxury expenses but I still order out as much as I used to, still keep up my gym membership, etc. Exit question: What would have to happen for the mood in the country to change to a depression footing? I think we’d need an event rather than the death by inches we see on the market every day to really drive it home. If Citi failed or GM went into bankruptcy and the Dow suddenly dropped 1,000 points, that might do it. Or, I guess, if the Dow went low enough — approaching 5,000, maybe? — then real panic would set in. Short of that, I think people (at least here in NYC) are going to keep treating it like Y2K and hope for the best.
Update: Repent.
America’s five largest banks, which already have received $145 billion in taxpayer bailout dollars, still face potentially catastrophic losses from exotic investments if economic conditions substantially worsen, their latest financial reports show.
Citibank, Bank of America, HSBC Bank USA, Wells Fargo Bank and J.P. Morgan Chase reported that their “current” net loss risks from derivatives — insurance-like bets tied to a loan or other underlying asset — surged to $587 billion as of Dec. 31. Buried in end-of-the-year regulatory reports that McClatchy has reviewed, the figures reflect a jump of 49 percent in just 90 days.
Update (Ed): Here’s an indicator as to whether Specter is serious or whether he’s just playing CYA on Porkulus. How many earmarks does he have in the omnibus spending bill? Because from where I sit, Congress has given us 9,283 reasons to think they’re blowing smoke. When they start sacrificing, then I’ll buy it.
Blowback
Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.
Trackbacks/Pings
Trackback URL
Comments
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 Next »
Ok maybe you people don’t get it. spector is right. It still does not give him a pass on the bill.
We are in some major major crap. Not many people understand the problems we face. There are reports of the European banks having more than $27 trillion in bad loans. We have major countries defaulting on their debt. We the USa owe $12 trillion that thanks to Clinton is short term debt not long term debt. He refi the debt in the 90′s to give the appearance of a budget surplus. Most of that debt was refi in the late 90′s with 10 year notes which means most of that debt is coming due and must be rolled over at the same time Obama and congress are adding Trillions more to it. If we find buyers for that debt at the present interest rates we can limp along for a couple more months and hope things get better. If for some reason like china screws us and we can’t find a buyer for that debt interest rates will go up and 100′s of billions will be added to servicing of our debt. Which means massive inflation which means massive increase in interest rates etc until we default like any other subprime borrow. Yes the USA government is considered a subprime borrower. The only reason they continue to buy our debt is that they will sink with us. like the banks refi the homes of the deadbeats.
On top of that Wall street in the last 6 weeks lost $10 Trillion in wealth. That money is not coming back. Add in the retiring of the boomers and the stock market the engine of capital formation is dead for years to come.
the choices are hard and yet our gov is failing to make the proper ones which would be to do what every other American family is doing. cut spending and pay down debt not get more into debt.
If you knew your house was going to burn down in a week and nothing you did was going to save it from buring would you A) take the week to prepare stocking up on needed items or
B) take the route of Congress and go out on a wild party for the next 7 days spending every last dime you have.
The gov needs to cut spending period. they need to make good on the deposits of the banks and let the shareholders and bondholders and insurance holders lose their money. that isn’t going to happen so we will spend every last dime fighting to save the elites that got us into this mess. And we will slowly kill ourselves finacially doing it.
The DOW will bottom at 1,500 to 3,000 by 2012. there is no reason to buy stocks. None.
unseen on March 9, 2009 at 10:08 PM
Arlen Specter began his political career as a Democrat. He was the DA for the city of Philadelphia when Hugh Scott, then US State Senator, passed on. Greedy as he was to move up the political ladder, he decided it would suit him well to change his party from (D) to (R) to make a run for the senate. So the wolf donned his sheep’s clothing, ran on the GOP ticket and won. He has shown his true colors of late jumping on the “sky is falling” bandwagon of the child president.
He’s a Donk. Always has been. How soon he forgot who helped to get him re-elected to his senate seat the last time around. None other than George W. Bush, who came to Pennsylvania to save Specter’s political hide.
Specter’s a traitor, of the highest order. Rino my arse.
fogw on March 9, 2009 at 10:08 PM
The country would be better off if he had done that. Scrooge McDuck acquires that money so that he can have power. As Nietzsche correctly observed, power is the whole point. And you don’t need money if you have power. Arlen Specter has a police cordon clear the streets for him so that he won’t be late getting to his plane. No amount of money gets you that kind of service. Specter gets to gallavant about the world all on the public dime. All those Yale/Harvard/Stanford Law graduates have to beg for an audience with him and kiss his a$$ because he wields power over them. Look at Geithner. Staying for free in someone’s swanky DC home. Look at Daschle. Riding around in the back of a limo provided for free by a corporation for which he does not work, no questions asked. People do favors for powerful people to purchase their influence so in the end those powerful people don’t need money to live a lifestyle with limos and airplanes and luxury accommodations. There is nothing selfless about being a perpetual Washington bigshot.
shazbat on March 9, 2009 at 10:09 PM
I call BS. What does Specter know, or any member of the administration, that the public and business owners don’t? Is the economic crisis now some secret hidden away in an underground laboratory at Area 51? Do only the Men in Black know how bad the Dow Jones really is?
The truth is out there. And it’s in our faces when we wake up.
keep the change on March 9, 2009 at 10:11 PM
Is f**king Specter acting as though the end is nigh?
Is he buying canned goods?
The stimulus doesn’t do sh*t until later this year. So tell me again how that mattered NOW???
This smacks of more Obama bullsh*t. The banks are the problem- not medicare and cap and trade. If things were so awful would Obama maybe be spending time on FIXING THE PROBLEM AND PUTTING MORE REAL PEOPLE IN THE TREASURY AND NOT BLOWING UP HEALTH CARE AND DRIVING UP ENERY COSTS???
COME ON PEOPLE!
drjohn on March 9, 2009 at 10:19 PM
Great. You read Wikipedia and came up with your own interpretation. Keep up the good work.
Hmm…I’ve searched and I’ve searched the Internet and my own recollections of Nietzsche, and darned if I can find/remember him ever writing “Power is the whole point.” I think you’re talking about the concept of the Will to Power though. That’s certainly one way of looking at the world, and that’s about the nicest thing I can say about that. I think very little of Nietzsche as a philosopher and even less of him as a man. Another discussion, I suppose.
Proud Rino on March 9, 2009 at 10:21 PM
I don’t need an unprincipled, nitwit politician to tell me we are in trouble. What I do want him and his idiot colleagues to admit is that they are primarily responsible for the problems we are facing.
Wow – the audacity of these scoundrels is simply staggering. They have literally ruined this country and then they have the cajones to tell me that only they can fix it? How gullible or ignorant do people have to be to buy that?
King of the Britons on March 9, 2009 at 10:22 PM
Ooooooo. Sharp, sharp point.
MadisonConservative on March 9, 2009 at 10:24 PM
I am seething, damn it, AP!
That stimulus package spends $100 billion this year.
That’s it!
How does that save the country??????????
Specter is an a**hole!
drjohn on March 9, 2009 at 10:27 PM
Here’s an analogy that Spector would recognize:
Obama is to our free enterprise economy as Ira Einhorn (Spector’s old client) is to Holly Maddox.
TexasJew on March 9, 2009 at 10:32 PM
Well, Warren Buffett publicly supports Obama (to keep the Stalinists from hanging his avuncular old ass from a lamppost)
In Obama’s Zimbabwe, you gotta pay to play another day…
TexasJew on March 9, 2009 at 10:36 PM
BTW, shazbat – if you are talking about the Will to Power, the fundamental concept behind that is that the driving force of life is essentially man’s desire to accumulate as much power as possible – essentially it was a response to Bentham and the Utilitarians (band name?)
Of course the Will to Power is nonsense. I don’t know anyone that seriously lives to accumulate as much power as possible in their own hands. I don’t know anyone that would accept that power even if it were offered to them for nothing. I know I wouldn’t.
Sorry to get so off-track; I like philosophy now that I don’t have to take philosophy classes anymore.
Proud Rino on March 9, 2009 at 10:36 PM
FU pal. I’ve worked in Philly and lived in the area most of my life. I don’t need to look up Wikipedia to get a history lesson on Specter. I watched his rise to power first hand. What do you know about his past junior, without looking it up on Wiki?
FYI, I made the drastic mistake of voting for this tool in the last election, thinking he might return the favor to Bush for helping with his re-election. I also sent him several emails regarding his stance on the stimulus well before he made his moronic decision to vote in favor. The A-hole sent be a boiler-plate response, thanking me for my input and concern after I tore him a new one. He doesn’t care what his constituents think or want. He only cares about his political career. Why else would he hand the stimulus plan to Obarfy and friends on a silver platter, while his colleagues, en mass, voted against it?
He’s one of the dinosaurs that should head for the tar pits. He’s useless to our party. He should just change party affiliation and be done with it.
fogw on March 9, 2009 at 10:36 PM
That was about 46 years too many in the senate. He should have been turned out long ago.
belad on March 9, 2009 at 10:37 PM
It sounds to me as though he’s already jumped on board the USSR Obama.
drjohn on March 9, 2009 at 10:39 PM
That sounds like you’re applying a microeconomic solution to a macroeconomic problem. Bad idea.
orange on March 9, 2009 at 10:40 PM
I don’t think panic will set in until Soros orders axelrod to order obama to order Rhambo with “Ok, when you do the talking points with the press today, it’s time to hit the panic button. Everything is set up.”
Then, Rhambo has his morning call to the fifth column, aka the media, and tells them to start spreading panic. After all, why waste a crisis (especially one you have created)
bullseye on March 9, 2009 at 10:41 PM
So, what’s your point? Fidel castro has 50 years of “service” to Cuba….. which has left a country that was previously in decent shape as a mouldering cesspool.
bullseye on March 9, 2009 at 10:43 PM
Pardonme but I just read this on Breitbart’s column. Does this tell you anything about this guy? He will have stormtroopers out there next; or are they called Universal Service Corps or ACORN, take your pick but he wants to rally against the people and will stop at nothing I fear.
“US President Barack Obama mustered his powerful campaign army on Monday, calling on his millions of supporters to lobby on behalf of his budget and economic plan.
The appeal to back the president was made in an email and video sent out by “Organizing for America,” the organization which morphed out of Obama’s campaign machinery to push his agenda when he entered the White House.”
Pardonme on March 9, 2009 at 10:45 PM
well actually the public is not being told you can spend until you are broke, but prosperity will not come back. And government spending is the worst thing you can do, buy lots of stuff no one wants, no one needs or does nothing toi create jobs.
Permanent good jobs are created one thing, people making goods and services that other people who make goods and services want to buy.
Government make work jobs end at the same place when the money runs out, the unemployment line. FDR proved this beyond any doubt.
tarpon on March 9, 2009 at 10:45 PM
the over 9000 earmarks are microeconomics?!?!?! I think this just goes to show that these numbers have gotten so huge they have lost their meaning to too many people.
Ampersand on March 9, 2009 at 10:45 PM
You need to elaborate, because I’m pretty sure you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Also – microeconomics is not dependent on the quantity of a thing. Seriously, people, don’t talk about concepts you don’t understand.
Proud Rino on March 9, 2009 at 10:48 PM
I think you are exaggerating the DOW just a little. It will bottom just below 4000 and it won’t come back for a generation, and even then it won’t get to where it was. There is very little reason to get back into the market as grown is guaranteed to be stunted.
belad on March 9, 2009 at 10:50 PM
So? If that’s all it takes to impress you then you must be an easy lay.
Ampersand on March 9, 2009 at 10:52 PM
Youhave to keep in mind that the Dow (the US market) doesn’t move independently. The Nikkei is currently just above 7,000. If the Dow gets down to 4000, that means that the Nikkei will probably be down around 4500. The difference is that Japanese banking capital is intimately tied to their market (unlike with us) and a Nikkei that low will force huge liquidations of much of the Japanese banking system, if not totally rupturing it. That would swing back here and drive our market to levels most people don’t even consider possible.
progressoverpeace on March 9, 2009 at 10:57 PM
think you are exaggerating the DOW just a little. It will bottom just below 4000 and it won’t come back for a generation, and even then it won’t get to where it was. There is very little reason to get back into the market as grown is guaranteed to be stunted.
belad on March 9, 2009 at 10:50 PM
the Nasdaq lost 80%
the Dow from 1929 to 1932 lost 90% of its vaule. It is what happens when bubbles pop.
If the DOw loses 80% its 3,000 905 gives you 1,500
I was calling Dow 7,000 by jan 21 LAST nov. people thought I was nuts. Now we are at 6,500 and dropping fast. The President of the USa told Americians to buy stocks and the market tanked. If you can give me a good reason for Dow 4,000 fine if not I will go with historic selloffs. Most selloffs have a massive blowoff bottom. and a key reversal within that day or the next.
The P/e will continue to shrink so the prices that look cheap today will look expensive tommorrow. What is a company worth that makes no money. Yuo trying to tell me a GM that loses $6 billion is worth a penny?
unseen on March 9, 2009 at 11:00 PM
progressoverpeace on March 9, 2009 at 10:57 PM
and lets not forget that $27 Trillion in bad debt over in europe. Some of the european banks are bigger than their entire country’s GDP. that means it is impossible for their govs to bail them out. thus we bail out AIg who behind the scens bails out those banks. but we can not bailoutn $27 Trillion so what happens when just one of those banks goes insolvent. Their ties to our banks are major. It will have a ripple effect across wall street.
this is a years long fall. Only will every believer in unicorns thorws in the towel will the Dow even start to think about going back up
unseen on March 9, 2009 at 11:03 PM
Ditto.
Thanks Ed, for the balance to Specter’s “Sky is Falling” economic analysis.
Lest we forget, the Congressional and Executive branch Chicken Littles got us into this bailout mess in the first place.
If these banks are in such trouble . . . LET THEM FAIL.
sdun1 on March 9, 2009 at 11:14 PM
Proud Rino
Yes, I was talking in shorthand about the “Will to Power.” My point is that money is a bunch of paper. It’s value isn’t intrinsic; it lies in how one can use it, specifically to exercise one’s will over the world around you. You can get what you want if you have money. Rich people in Manhattan have money and can get what they want. People in D.C. have power and they can get what they want, too, but they skip the middleman. To posit that someone like Specter is giving up anything by going to D.C. to be powerful as opposed to somewhere else to become wealthy is a false dichotomy. They end up being the same thing. Wealth is power and power is power. Wealthy people fly to Davos, Switzerland to hang out. Powerful people do the same thing, and the public picks up the tab. Being a chronic Washington pol is one of the sweetest deals a person can get for himself.
shazbat on March 9, 2009 at 11:17 PM
Yeah. You can go to any part of the world and show that they are in deep sh!t. The sad part is, the only thing that could save any of them is a growing US economy. But the morons here, and the idiots around the world, all loved the idea of getting an economy-killer into the White House (and the Congress) and now everyone is going to suffer – big time.
Oh well. Let this be a harsh lesson to everyone – those who manage to survive it, at least.
progressoverpeace on March 9, 2009 at 11:18 PM
The DOW is undervalued as it is right now.
The reason money isn’t going into the market is becuase Obama and the Treasury have not set a price on bad debt. Is it 10 cents on the dollar? Is it 5 cents on the dollar?
When they do, and investors know the bottom dollar shitty debt is worth, they will start pumping money back into the markets.
Give boy wonder Geitner some time to tell everyone what it will be (he should have done this a week ago, but apparently he’s flying solo), and the markets will correct.
Vincenzo on March 9, 2009 at 11:25 PM
Very few of the nitwits in Congress are peddling “The Sky is Falling.” Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers, both who have been consistently accurate in predicting what has happened over the past 15 years, are saying we are in big trouble. BIG TROUBLE.
While I won’t argue that when left alone to succeed or fail, our economy would be grand. But leave anything to the criminal idiots in Congress and they will break it. These are the contemptible people who are spending my children into ruin. But, make no mistake about it, our government is ensuring that our economy will bottom out and that the dollar will be worthless.
King of the Britons on March 9, 2009 at 11:25 PM
Ed, those earmarks don’t add up to a lot of money. That doesn’t make it okay to be in there, but that’s not a major problem at this point. It’s debt and what its worth.
Vincenzo on March 9, 2009 at 11:26 PM
Dead men walking.
MB4 on March 9, 2009 at 11:30 PM
And he’s making it better? How, by piling on more govt debt and spending?? You can’t get out of debt by taking on more debt.
The CBO said that by doing absolutely nothing we would be out of this recession by the end of ’09. Now we’re looking at the longest recession since WW2 thanks to Spectre, Collins and Snowjob…Maybe a depression if the socialist plans of our most liberal senator, turned President, gets his way.
Gohawgs on March 9, 2009 at 11:31 PM
Seriously if this is a Great Depression then why can’t our dear President spend a few minutes on it? I mean the federal funding redundant stem cell research is more important than markets when we are on the brink??????
Meeting with Brown about the world wide economy was less important than going after Limbaugh???????? Or all that partying fearless leader was involved in last week??? Huge disconnect!!!
We may well be going into something as bad as the Depression but our leaders sure dont’ seem to think it is all that bad when they know insecurity in the markets is caused by the new entitlement programs they are proposing and they can’t put that crap on the back burner and consentrate on filling the vacancies in Treasury.
Besides, we are the economy. And things are bad enough I supose but shouldn’t we be feeling it worse than they do in Washington? I’m in Arizona and yeah housing prices have gone down and that sucks, but I was struck with the number of people I talked to yesterday who are in the market for cars…And the house next door was in foreclosure but apparently it sold this week-end because my daughters friend from school says she’s moving next door.
At least four families I know really well are actively looking for a new car… well probably not new but new to them.
These things just aren’t like the stories I’ve heard from the Depression.
petunia on March 9, 2009 at 11:33 PM
Every American president has gotta have a war. Messiah’s signature war. War on Business.
KentAllard on March 9, 2009 at 11:33 PM
It’s amazing how quickly they could have fixed everything.
1)4% mortgages for EVERYONE.
2)stop all unneccesary federal programs
3)cancel Soc. Security for anyone born 9 months after today. In others, end the program for newborns 9 months from now.
4)set a minimum value for toxic debt.
Vincenzo on March 9, 2009 at 11:35 PM
He’s busy reading “Turbotax 2009 for dummies” so he can get his taxes in by april 15th.
bullseye on March 9, 2009 at 11:39 PM
A depression is coming, but it’s one that is being created by the Government (just like the last one).
What is a depression anyway? Everyone talks about unemployment, ect- but that is only the symptom. It’s like saying the common cold is a sore throat- when in fact it’s a virus that causes a sore throat.
An economic depression is when resources are inefficiently allocated thus “depressing” production. Since production is highly inefficient, only the most efficient workers can retain their jobs.
So how do you fight a depression? Encourage efficiency. Does the Stimulus encourage efficiency or inefficiency?
Like Ronald Reagan said: “When the government tells you your depressed- lie down and be depressed.” cause it means they’re going to try to help, and government solutions tend to be worse than the disease.
The government and politicians are stuck on fighting the symptoms and not the root causes- so they plan to increase employment- How? By make work jobs that increases the inefficiency of workers and the economy? See how they end up doing more harm then good?
Sackett on March 9, 2009 at 11:40 PM
Some days I want to think yes, we’re in a Great Depression Part Deux situation. And then I go to a Chili’s Friday evening for some beers and have to wait 20 mins for a table amd think to myself, WTF, where is this depression I keep hearing about?
angryed on March 9, 2009 at 11:47 PM
There’s no depression because food is phenomenaly cheap. Come on.
Vincenzo on March 9, 2009 at 11:49 PM
So the deadbeat with a 500 fico gets the same rate as the responsible with an 800 fico. Reward the idiots at the expense of the prudent.
Maybe we should allow everyone with a 1.0 GPA into Harvard and reject everyone with a 4.0.
Awesome idea! No really, A+ thinking.
angryed on March 9, 2009 at 11:55 PM
Part of the question was, when do we really feel like we’ve gone over the edge and hit a real, honest-to-goodness depression?
My answer is, things have to be worse than they were under Carter.
We’re at what, 8.1% unemployment now? Unemployment is really where we begin to worry about depression levels of misery, mostly because if we don’t have an income, and can’t get one, we’re screwed, and 8%, while obviously NOT GOOD, is not time to launch yourself off a bridge.
When we start seeing, oh, 15% unemployment, they’ll be a lot more misery, and we can start talking depression then. Right now, we’re just in a long, ugly recession.
The other key is, again, I’ll believe it when the folks in Washington start acting like it. You can cry “Depression!” with a capital-D all you want, but if you’re spending like a drunk sailor I’m not inclined to believe you. Had all the spending seemed like a genuine effort to stimulate a sinking economy, as opposed to just buying political influence, I’d be more sympathetic.
The only reason we’re hearing “Depression! Depression!” now is because it’s a convenient way for Washington to get more power.
12thMonkey on March 9, 2009 at 11:56 PM
How bad is it? Who knows. Who cares. All anyone needs to know is that the economy if left alone will recover as it has many times before.
docdave on March 9, 2009 at 11:58 PM
Oh but gas prices are going up for no f’ing reason.
They don’t want it to get better. They want us all on food stamps.
johnnyU on March 10, 2009 at 12:02 AM
If Specter truly believed that we are entering a depression then the stimulus bill would have looked quite different. All of the spending would be front loaded to occur in the next few months. The point about the Pork is not an argument between macro or micro economics it is that if things are so bad then congress should be tightening its belt like we all are. I think it is crystal clear that the economy is in trouble, how much is still to be worked out. The Alchemist-in-Chief still thinks that if you paint a lead bar with gold-leaf that you have a solid gold bar that then can be spent to stimulate the economy. He promised a new reliance upon science in his administration but the change he gave us was to return to the pseudo-science of alchemy. For those of you in the 53% who voted for hope and change. How’s the hope working for you now?
chemman on March 10, 2009 at 12:08 AM
Guys. Everything will be fine. Once everyone realizes that there is no more money for buying debt then all debt will be canceled and we will have a do over.
Of course that will be under a one world government run by Kim Jong but there will be no more debt!
watson007 on March 10, 2009 at 12:11 AM
Fine, everyone with a traditional mortgage and at least 10% down on their home.
Is that better for you?
If someone can’t afford their home at 5 , 6, or 7 percent, they won’t be able to afford it at 4.
What my point does is give people who are paying their mortgages more disposable income. That an extra 200 bucks a month and multiply that by everyone responsible homeowner with a mortgage in the country.
BOOM. Now you go money being spent again and businesses back in action.
IT’s better than any plan out of Congress or the Oval Office.
Vincenzo on March 10, 2009 at 12:11 AM
That = Take. Sorry about the typo.
Vincenzo on March 10, 2009 at 12:12 AM
No it isn’t. You are still taking my tax dollars and giving it to someone else.
Here’s a radical plan:
Government stays the hell out of it.
You pay your mortgage.
If you can’t afford it, you either sell the house or foreclose. Then you rent the same house for 1/2 price.
BOOM extra money to spend without a dime of tax money.
angryed on March 10, 2009 at 1:05 AM
One thing everyone should know about the unemployment rate. When Clinton took office in 1993 one of the first things he had done was to recalculate the unemployment rate. This was done in order to get a “more accurate picture of the true unemployment“. One thing the Bureau of Labor Statistics did was to drop some categories like long term unemployed from the formula.
Whaddaya Know! The unemployment rate dropped and has stayed low ever since.
So if you’re comparing present unemployment rates with unemployment rate before 1993 you’re comparing apples and oranges.
It’s the Democrat’s way. If the numbers don’t support you, change the numbers.
schmuck281 on March 10, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Went up around 15 cents in one day around here a week or so ago.
All of these ‘economists’ were saying that lower gas prices were a sign of a slowing economy. Sooooo…since gas has gone back up, does that mean things are better? They speak with forked tongue.
Dr. ZhivBlago on March 10, 2009 at 1:14 AM
Much more accurate.
When I want this senile fool’s opinion, I’ll tell him what it is. And that goes for the majority of the self-serving, free-spending cretins in Congress.
We’d be so much better off if they, and Osama Obama, Incompetent Supreme, would go away and let the economy begin to correct itself without their pouring-in of counterfeit money.
MrScribbler on March 10, 2009 at 1:16 AM
Since Helicopter Ben Bernanke likes analogies, i have one for you.
If you’re a cell in a human, and the cells down the street get cancer, you can just get mad and say, let ‘em die! Problem is, these cancerous cells have been around for awhile, and they’re spreading. If they are ignored, the cancer will spread and eventually kill the body.
As much as I dislike government intervention, past choices, and choices as early as yesterday have screwed this problem up so bad, some drastic measures are needed, just not the ones that are proposed. An equal, across the board, change in financial strucutres of lending can fix this problem. Those changes can be market-friendly, without benefiting the losers any more than the winners.
Vincenzo on March 10, 2009 at 1:23 AM
With a few minor exceptions, stock markets all around the world have fallen further faster than the major US indices. None of us knows what becomes possible or likely if the markets lurch another major rung or two down, here and worldwide.
In that scenario, the whole shebang may need to be re-negotiated. The agreement of the main nuclear powers, oil producers, and banks ought to be enough for a 21st Century Bretton Woods, without having to depend on the expedient of world war to get the ball rolling. If we don’t, we’ll probably get the latter, with no certainty that they’ll be anyone to do the former.
Doing nothing might work just as well, except that it’s pretty much beyond human capacity to leave well enough alone while the whole world seems to be collapsing, which is how it would seem to a lot of people.
It’d be darn nice if we at least got a true house-cleaning and honest government out of this mess, but that’s looking like to much to ask for. The system and the culture that’s grown up around it are pretty far gone.
CK MacLeod on March 10, 2009 at 1:23 AM
So, that should make him a multi-millionaire.
Johan Klaus on March 10, 2009 at 1:36 AM
Oh dear. That must be so hard. Pulling a Govt paycheck with Govt benefits, all paid for by tax payers. All so he can screw up America.
Ya someone pin a medal on that fella.
Montana on March 10, 2009 at 1:47 AM
If we retake the Gulf oil fields (as we should have done right after 9/11, forget that we never should have allowed them to be forced nationalized, in the first place) then two major problems will be solved in one, fell swoop:
1) The arab/persian/muslim enemies will be instantly defanged. Not totally, but to a huge extent. This is a major piece of the whole war puzzle. The biggest, to my mind.
2) The Western balance sheet can be reinflated with backing of the oil fields (to some extent) and the world monetary systems would be given a reprieve, for each nation/monetary creator the chance to reexamine the system as it stands and strengthen it for the gigantic expansion and creation of welath that is going to occur when we start the commercial utilization of space, including colonization, which I figure will be within 40 years, or so … unless we get crippled by the monetary disaster that’s shaping up (and that Specter’s vote for the Porkulus helped along, in a big way).
I know this sounds extreme, but that’s what I see. I’ve been talking about this since 9/11.
progressoverpeace on March 10, 2009 at 1:49 AM
I’m stressed. Bought a pack of cigarettes and the guy said it would be $4.99 plus tax. WHAT?! Last week they were $3.49. He said next week or two they are going up to $7.00 a pack. Ok – so now I’m praying they don’t raise the price of the patch.
Last night I went to buy zuccini and paid $2.99/lb but 2 weeks ago I paid $1.49/lb. (I’m in Virginia for a frame of reference on price.)
I’m just sayin’ … food ain’t staying cheap.
Ach, smoking doesn’t help stress anyways. Sucking my thumb and rocking slowly back and forth is healthier, right? I’m sure I’ll have to do it in the dark because my lovely Mr. Kaine just passed an energy tax on all those evil people who use electricity.
jusgottabeme on March 10, 2009 at 1:59 AM
Apples. Apples. Wanna buy some apples?
faraway on March 10, 2009 at 2:00 AM
Specter is both right and wrong. Things are a lot worse than people know because what they’re doing is making things a lot worse and will continue to make things a lot worse. The road of stimuli and moral hazard is one way, down. It kills private capital, and the government will never be able to borrow or tax enough to replace it.
IF our government pulled their heads out of their asses and balanced the budget by cutting spending down to less than our current tax base (at the very least) then it wouldn’t be that bad. It would be a severe recession, but realistically the amount of value lost in the recession probably wouldn’t be much more than has already been driven out by the private-capital killing actions the government has already taken. If banks didn’t know that the government is going to take some form of random drastic action at some random point in time they could lend, and businesses could grow. If investors knew that the government wasn’t going to take random drastic action at some random point in time they could invest based on economic indicators, and businesses could grow.
So it doesn’t have to be so bad, but the corporatist Keynesian morons who think that there’s perpetual benefit in low taxes without low spending, high spending ever, or that companies need to be saved and protected for the sake of the jobs they provide are making things a lot worse and screwing us over and over and over again.
galenrox on March 10, 2009 at 2:01 AM
You are promoting the govt artificially prop up housing prices. And this is supposed to help us all?
Would you support govt propping up car prices? How about propping up gas prices? Propping up food prices?
Of course not.
Then why on earth do you support the govt propping up house prices, which are by far the biggest expense most people have?
When gas went from $2 to $4 everyone freaked out. Yet for some reason a 3 bedroom house going from $200K to $400K was cheered. So spending an extra $100 a month on gas…awful. Yet spending an extra $1000 a month on housing…awesome.
Wouldn’t you rather spend $1000 less on housing for the next 30 years? Don’t you think this will help the economy more than proppting up house prices and making millions of people slave for 30 years to barely afford a mortgage?
Think about it.
angryed on March 10, 2009 at 2:03 AM
If we retake the Gulf oil fields
(as we should have done right after 9/11, forget that we never should have allowed them to be forced nationalized, in the first place) then two major problems will be solved in one, fell swoopwe are both nuts and fascists looking for permanent war.Progress?over peace?
Basilsbest on March 10, 2009 at 2:08 AM
progressoverpeace on March 10, 2009 at 1:49 AM
In a way, we’ve always “had” the oil fields – had them held in trust for the international system of finance and trade that we, I believe correctly, viewed would serve our interests better than outright conquest.
I could be wrong, but I tend to think that the Great Write-Off and Reset (overcharge) would be less disruptive than rapid violent deconstruction of the international system. I also think that we’ll keep on trying to fiddle, finagle, buy off, temporize, and, most of all, defer for as long as possible before getting radical.
CK MacLeod on March 10, 2009 at 2:17 AM
To Specter: Thanks for making it worse, A-hole.
Tim Burton on March 10, 2009 at 2:22 AM
$4.99? Jeez, don’t think you don’t have my sympathy, but I am jealous! I need to get my cigarettes by my apartment before I go to school cause they’re only $7.46 in my town, but in Chicago by my school they’re between $9-10!
galenrox on March 10, 2009 at 2:28 AM
If you watch his entire statement it is pretty clear he is offering a giant rationalization for his absurd vote. He compares the necessity of the porkulus to the bail out under Bush. Fair point but the bank bailout was targeted to the problem whereas this was just a jolly holiday for spending.
He is also rationalizing the vote by noting the first failure to pass under Bush caused an 800 point drop in the market. We’d be damned lucky if the market only lost 800 point from passing Porkulus. He adds the statement about the public not being told the extent of the problem with the economy in here along with a laundry list of rationalizations. I think it was almost as irresponsible to make that statement without back up as it was to vote for Porky.
msmveritas on March 10, 2009 at 2:48 AM
That’s how it appears, but the truth, sadly, is not as constructive. We have let the arabs and persians get away with murder. They have used OPEC, many times, to launch full-scale attacks against the West. On occasion they have been very up-front about the acts of war (as with the 1973 embargo) but usually they just attack us without calling it that. It was OPEC and the orchestrated spike in oil prices that lit the fuse for this meltdown. That was, in my view, an act of war (especially as OPEC is an illegal cartel, to begin with) and calls for the confiscation of the weapon (for those with a legal bent). Now, after they have successfully started a financial meltdow in the West, they are continuing with the acts of war by colluding to place severe restrictions on output, choking off chances of Western rebound. And these are just the attacks that use the wells, themselves.
To go further, the wells provide the arab/persian/muslim world with the political power and the economic backbone of the attacks that their terrorist arms are taking, along with the funding of the weapons that the states are building (which are destabilizing this world as much as anything else has). Without the wells, the arab/persian/muslim world ceases to be a threat to anyone but itself.
On top of all that, they cannot be trusted with the security of the fields, which the rest of the world depends on (though not much the arab/persian/muslim world, since it is such a backward collection of medieval states that don’t need much energy to power their primitive lives). For those who still aren’t convinced, Saddam Hussein showed us what they really think of the fields when he intentionally dumped 40,000,000 barrels into the gulf and lit just about every oil well in Kuwait on fire. This is how they are, and those acts should have been understood by the West for what they represented.
To me, there is no alternative. Either we do it or we’re eventually forced to do it (after some long and intense pain).
In terms of the economies and monetary systems, perhaps (and only ‘perhaps’ because a real implosion of the dollar, which all of our government’s current policies are working towards, would lead to more chaos than anyone can imagine). But, there is also the war that the arab/persian/muslim world is waging against us and the gulf fields are the key to that. All terror and threats from the APM world starts and stops at the gulf fields, at least by my estimate, it does.
progressoverpeace on March 10, 2009 at 4:26 AM
A key point progressoverpeace might want to consider is, that after the embargo in 73, and the following several years, it was actually the oil supplying countries that took the brunt of the damage. Several arab governments fell. Of course like our ‘boys’, they may well be doomed to repeat history and try a failed policy again.
Meantime all of the gloom and doom stories of unimaginable piles of numbers on paper are, well, just numbers. The banks and most everything else involved in this mess WILL ultimatly FAIL! The only thing the government can do is to delay the inevitable. Proping up zombie banks and home price fixing, are what will turn a recession into a string of recessions that will become a depression. The govt HAS to just let the financial companies that nmessed up just go down! It will be easier to find capitol for the remaining solid banks if this happens quickly. The longer the govt drags this out, the more companies in unrelated businesses will be effected.
The only fellow I have seen in congress that seems to get this simple point is Ron Paul. I suspect in a year or so, more people will be listening to him.
And others, like spector, will simply retire.
Freddy on March 10, 2009 at 5:05 AM
MORE LIKE 50 YEARS OF F88kING OVER THE PUBLIC
AMERICAN VETERAN on March 10, 2009 at 5:56 AM
What would it take? How about insurance companies defaulting on annuities, and pension funds blowing away in the wind, putting millions on full blown welfare at a jaw dropping rate? When the PBGC is being emergency backstopped like the FDIC, think “uh oh”.
rhodeymark on March 10, 2009 at 6:02 AM
The answer is both. spector is a dirtbag who considered his promise to harry reid more important then his duty to his constituents in pennsylvania and the US. He is an opportunistic, corrupt, self important lowlife. The stimulas has not even left the terminal yet so his contention that it’s pulled us back from the precipice is BS. The stimulas will in fact push us over and help turn a bad recession that should have had a normal run of 12-16 months into something worse that will last for years. spector has helped the fascists take advantage of a good crisis and we will watch our civil liberties erode right along with our economic liberties. When it all hits the fan spector should be watched closely so he can’t escape to switzerland or where ever he has his dirty senate money stashed.
peacenprosperity on March 10, 2009 at 6:32 AM
So Specter is saying the stimulus package already has prevented us from falling into a Depression, just a few weeks after it’s been passed, and before any of it has even taken effect yet? What a buffoon. Sprcter needs to be shown the door big time. Somebody that dumb doesn’t belong in Congress. Oh, wait…
eyedoc on March 10, 2009 at 6:36 AM
Oh. I’m pretty sure we are going off the clif and I am also sure that HR1 is the bill that provided the final shove into the abyss. Thanks for that Spector.
BrideOfRove on March 10, 2009 at 6:49 AM
Spector’s comments were designed to inflame people’s anxiety. It’s getting to the point I believe nothing anyone says as a DC mouthpiece. As so many have eloquently put, he’s covering his @$$ for being a turncoat. Absolute power is only attained through fear and intimidation. We have a clueless President along with an equally clueless House and Senate. As far as believing it when Washington starts sacrificing, I’d like to say that’s true. But imho, no matter how crummy things ultimately end up being, that is never going to happen! They are entitled don’t you know?
Food, gas, cigarettes….. Food prices increased with last summer’s gas gouge, around here (in IN) I’ve not seen a decrease since then – although with coupons, generics and warehouse stores, you can somewhat corral your grocery bill. With the restaurants wanting to stay in business, there’s tons of specials going on, it’s almost cheaper to eat out! Gas? Last summer, crude topped around $150/barrel and gas was $4/gallon, by that equation, current crude at roughly $48/barrel should translate to $1.25-$1.30/gallon. That’s not the price around here – a week ago gas jumped from $1.71 to $1.99 in an 8 hour time frame. Cigarettes, state taxes increased and now on 4/1 federal taxes are increasing $6/carton. Soon we’re going to see increased taxes on utilities (after all we are such carbon emitting little trolls) property taxes keep increasing because…cities and towns are short in their budgets. Sales tax increases being proposed, because the states are having budget shortages. Well golly…. I ought to be able to cover those increases with that magnificent extra $13/week, the Messiah is graciously giving us all (that I’m going to be taxed on next year as income) But wait, that little “gift” is really a moot point for me, because I’m currently unemployed and my husband’s hours have been cut (I’m thankful he still has a job)
Washington in general are liars, thieves and narcissistic burdens on society and I wish we could have a total do-over. Since that is probably not possible, I must retain my faith in my fellow citizens, that this too shall pass and we’ll emerge stronger for it.
ladyhawke53 on March 10, 2009 at 7:08 AM
+100 I live in Pa also. Spector needs to go.
becki51758 on March 10, 2009 at 7:18 AM
Spector is trying to justify that generational theft act that he voted for. He’s probably getting hammered by his voters and now he’ll say anything, including spreading national panic, to save his sorry arse. Yea, Arlen, we know the economy sucks now please shut the f _ _ _ up!
orlandocajun on March 10, 2009 at 7:35 AM
How much additional capital do the US banks require to become solvent. If the Fed and Treasury know, they’re not telling. Why not? And if they don’t know, then why did they embark on a program to fill in a hole of unknown depth with OUR money?
Right there is the fundamental issue… nobody on the bridge has a map, but they are shouting orders as though they had a map.
The economy recovers when goods and services of value are produced at a rate that exceeds the cost of servicing the debt on balance of trades. It’s difficult to see that happening if capital investments are zilch.
So, we’re going to launder each other’s shirts back to prosperity with newly minted Monopoly money?
Consider the ramifications of supply chain distruptions – basic materials needed for food packaging and distribution.
The economic neutron bomb has already detonated. I don’t doubt for a second that Fed, Treasury and now WH know it.
shaken on March 10, 2009 at 8:10 AM
I had assumed, with the first TARP, that the purpose of that money was to provide support for, or quarantine, a skeletal structure in our financial/monetary system so that the rest could be allowed to fail without worrying that nothing would be left to rebuild from. But … they decided not to take that tack. Instead, they pissed it away – thanks to the idiot Congress shoving through one of the cr#ppiest pieces of legislation to ever see the floor.
So now, we have been transferring economic risk (which we can survive, easily) to monetary risk (which is much more dangerous) and now The Precedent and his lunatic band in Congress are strangling the economy to insure a monetary cataclysm. Gird your loins.
progressoverpeace on March 10, 2009 at 8:16 AM
We are indeed in a D. FDR made sure we were in one, and Obama has already done him three times better and we aren’t even 100 days in yet.
Think about this for a minute. Is the money earned but not being spent by people being put in mattresses?
View the Government’s money as a pressure hose, building a hole of uncertain depth. The banks have money, but they are sitting on it, because they aren’t sure, in this era of Stimulus, what to do. If they try to put their money in one area and the Government hoses (by running the presses 24/7) that same area, they’ve just lost a tremendous amount of profit, because they are competing with the Government, which is not a money-maker. So they sit and wait until they figure out which way the Stimulus is blowing. They’ve got a lot of time to choose the best places to invest. Sadly, most of the rest of us don’t.
unclesmrgol on March 10, 2009 at 8:44 AM
AP, you live in NYC? You mean I’m not the only Manhattan resident who is not a flaming liberal? I take comfort in that. As an indication of how bad things could get here, The New York Post reported this morning that the top 1% of NYC wage earners – just some 43,000 people – pay 48% of all NYC income taxes. If they increase the top rate, a good percentage of those might just leave. Back to the 1970s here…for those old enough to remember that, it was great fun and the city was very pretty.
AmericanUnderground on March 10, 2009 at 8:56 AM
Specter: “…more serious than is publicly disclosed. And I think we’re on the brink of a depression…”
Translation: More fear mongering for votes.
We won’t go into a depression, things will get better sooner than later and then Specter can say his wise actions stopped the depression and voters should vote for him.
albill on March 10, 2009 at 9:01 AM
He also just signed a tobacco ban in most restaurants so there’s another reason to quit smoking.
ladyingray on March 10, 2009 at 9:08 AM
Riiiiiiight… sounds like he’s dutifully acting as a public servant to me! /sarc
dominigan on March 10, 2009 at 9:21 AM
Economy: The public’s not being told just how bad Specter is
LibTired on March 10, 2009 at 9:26 AM
Not a bad idea, actually, and it’s done all the time. There are more game-theoretic models of central bank behavior, for example, than you can shake a stick at. What else is that but the application of micro tools to macro topics? AP’s just complaining that the Congress keeps signaling “wet” (if you know the models you know what I’m saying here). Public Choice and Social Choice theory are also micro, aren’t they? And aren’t they relevant here?
I personally can’t wait to see Roubini’s reaction to the stress test results, if those are publicly released. He says the banking sector in the U.S. is insolvent. Obama’s acting like he thinks it isn’t. Chances are the stress tests are gonna agree with the Boss.
Meanwhile, Krugman’s sounding more and more ticked off.
My professional opinion as an economist, offered here at the market-clearing price, is that the situation is getting worse, and at a pretty good clip. There are too many mutually reinforcing processes trending in the wrong direction at the moment, and the Government — the whole of it, mind you — has pissed away its credibility and its latitude in making big moves simultaneously. They’re running out of ammo.
DrSteve on March 10, 2009 at 9:29 AM
They are going up because the formulation has to change for spring. More chemicals need to be added to comply with regional emissions regulations. Crude has gone up a little, and demand has increased a bit, but the bulk of the change is government intervention.
Vashta.Nerada on March 10, 2009 at 9:49 AM
I’m retired, lost my pension, health insursnce, over half of my savings are gone, my two childrens’ small businesses are struggling to survive and Obama wants to raise taxes on them. And these are the least of problems we’ll face under Obama’s “Change”
A$$ Hole Specter thinks I NEED someone to explain to me the economy is bad. Been around since ’33 I’ve seen some bad times and here they come again. Thanks for worrying about me though , Arlen
Herb on March 10, 2009 at 9:51 AM
I just have to say that I laughed my head off when I heard what these “stress tests” were. They are nothing more than the normal risk analysis that should have been done on those portfolios in the regular operation of those businesses. How can anyone carry such huge portfolios and not run any risk analyses to see what the P+L will be under different scenarios? That is fraudulent behavior, by my reckoning – from the companies all the way to the oversight committees in Congress. When I had first heard Vikram Pandit say that Citi hadn’t taken the possibility of a stagnant, or falling, housing market into account in analyzing their risk, since they considered it “highly unlikely” [paraphrased] my jaw dropped to the floor – especially as we had just come out of a major housing slump less than 2 decades ago.
progressoverpeace on March 10, 2009 at 9:57 AM
What Ed said.
el rey on March 10, 2009 at 9:59 AM
unclesmrgol on March 10, 2009 at 8:44 AM
Banks are not lending because they have zero capital, and the TARP funds have not filled the hole (which is of unknown depth). They are also not exposing themselves to interbank risk because they know that other bank’s balance sheets are as full of BS as their own. The program appears to be to print away the debt. Consequently, once the asset deflation cycle spins down, the US will experience an inflationary cycle as it never has before.
Deflation first. Then incredible inflation.
shaken on March 10, 2009 at 10:30 AM
True. My job for now seems safe but every extra money I get (tax refunds, bonuses, etc.) goes straight into a savings (bank not mutual fund) account. Got to build up the ‘disaster fund’.
Hilts on March 10, 2009 at 10:58 AM
There is something really wrong about the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Yes I know that Philly and its suburbs are liberal land but Murtha (what does a person got to do to insult Pennsylvanians?), getting rid of Santorum, rejecting Lynn Swann for Ed Rendell?
Hilts on March 10, 2009 at 11:06 AM
Just like the Kennedy’s. They are incapable of finding employment in the private sector where they actually are answerable to a boss.
Hilts on March 10, 2009 at 11:11 AM
It’s common to paraphrase/quote Nietzsche when we don’t like someone, or when things seems dire; but just b/c someone does that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are wrong, per se, or even misguided a bit. That anyone respects Nietzsche or his philosophy is not the point. That you can debate it is also not the point. In fact, that one uses their learning to belittle others (rather than engage in fruitful discussion) tends to prove the guys’ whole Will to Power thingy, at any rate (even if only via perception). So…um…err..power is probably still the point…
bluelightbrigade on March 10, 2009 at 11:58 AM
Then tell them, dumb ass!
PappaMac on March 10, 2009 at 12:41 PM
One of the huge problems is the new Mark to Market rule forces companies to reserve cash for paper losses (I beleive it came in in November 2008). This is one of the big reasons the banks are not lending money. By law, they have to keep most of it to cover the paper losses.
If this rule was relaxed for a few months the change would be remarkable.
I do think that the Administration will do this at a politically advantageous time.
davod on March 10, 2009 at 2:05 PM
He’s telling you like Obama told him to tell you AllahPundit. Are you that silly?
No, dear. He is doing neither. He’s just setting up for his next vote for Stimulus II. He’s just getting geared up to explain why he had to agree to spend more than the aggregate of Congress from Washington to “W” combined in one stimulus package and THEN why that’s STILL not enough.
*sheesh*/rolls eyes
Sultry Beauty on March 10, 2009 at 3:36 PM
Comment pages: « Previous 1 2 3 Next »