Nancy Pelosi’s incomplete graphics

posted at 11:44 am on February 10, 2009 by Ed Morrissey

Benjamin Disraeli once said that there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  He may have had Nancy Pelosi in mind.  As my friend Bruce McQuain at QandO discovers, context means everything in statistical analysis, especially in creating graphical representations.  Pelosi uses this chart to argue that we are in The Worst Economic Crisis of All Time by showing the drop in employment rates:

Oh. My. GAWD!! It’s certainly the worst performance in … the last three recessions, the oldest of which is the 1991 slowdown.  But what happens when we go back to 1974?  Justin Fox gives us the answer:

In fact, July 1974 and July 1981 both look worse, at least at the moment.  In neither case did we try passing such a huge, porked-up spending bill full of government pet projects as Pelosi offers now.  However, in the early 1970s we did experiment with wage and price controls, which helped create the recession in 1974 and the resultant unemployment.  We continued with federal interference in the economy all through th 1970s, resulting in three recessions in six years on this chart — and only when Ronald Reagan began privatizing the markets again did we pull out of it, when unemployment increased much more than this recession has, at least thus far.

But that’s not the end of the context, either.  William Polley takes us all the way back to World War II for even more comparisons:

When one looks at the past 60 years, we see that this recession’s unemployment only ranks it thus far as a mid-range recession.  Even the rate of decline has been more moderate in this recession than in most of the others.  It’s not cause for celebration or a prescription for inaction, but panic isn’t necessary, either.  Instead, we should focus on what worked in previous recessions, rather than get stampeded into a “let’s try anything” approach that will almost certainly make matters worse.

The last damned lie is that these charts provide even a scintilla of evidence for the Pelosi Porkulus Bill.  All they show is unemployment rates.  The real lessons come in the policies followed in the recoveries, along with the lasting power of those policies.  When we used government regulation of free markets in the 1970s as a response, the result was three significant recessions in seven years, along with massive inflation and soaring interest rates.  When we relied on market-based economics, we have had only four significant recessions in the last 28 years, including the one that weaned us off of the disastrous policies of the 70s — to which Pelosi and Obama want to return.

And more than anything, the lesson to be learned here is that Nancy Pelosi has been deeply dishonest about this recession.


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Nancy is trying to pull something over on us and it stinks.

The OHNo administration (Obama, Harry, Nancy) will be the worst of all time.

How many more days left before the end of O’s presidency?

originalpechanga on February 10, 2009 at 11:48 AM

Leftist.

Lies.

Any questions?

rvastar on February 10, 2009 at 11:48 AM

Which is to say that the libs will sell the nation whatever is necessary to retain and expand their power.

Enjoy your credit while you can,

Bishop on February 10, 2009 at 11:48 AM

How can anyone take anything this incompetent, deranged, corrupt dingbat says, seriously?

We have a complete idiot as House Speaker, let’s face it and move on.

Trying to make heads or tails of anything this utter embarrassment of a woman has to say, is a complete waste of time.

NoDonkey on February 10, 2009 at 11:49 AM

dont forget to take into account the countries population for the earlier job losses too.

offroadaz on February 10, 2009 at 11:50 AM

Stop confusing us with facts!

crash72 on February 10, 2009 at 11:50 AM

Scare Tactics.

When it comes to terrorism, it’s real and tangible.

When it comes to Pelosi economy it’s the chicken little fuzzy logic

Kini on February 10, 2009 at 11:50 AM

How many more days left before the end of O’s presidency?

originalpechanga on February 10, 2009 at 11:48 AM

http://obamaclock.org/

I’m cry’n in my beer at 8:50 AM PST…

jbh45 on February 10, 2009 at 11:51 AM

Nancy Pelosi has been deeply dishonest about this recession.

Noooo, ohh noo, you mean the 500 million jobs, and now this. And to think i always thought she was such a great congresswoman. My faith in the system is now gone.

MDWNJ on February 10, 2009 at 11:53 AM

So it’s the worst recession in 20 years, whoop-de-doo.

cadams on February 10, 2009 at 11:55 AM

Libs are Liars.

marklmail on February 10, 2009 at 11:55 AM

1% of the population will know that this is a fraud.

Akzed on February 10, 2009 at 11:55 AM

Another tactic to stampede the rubes.

Thanks for exposing this, Ed.

Greg Toombs on February 10, 2009 at 11:58 AM

I’m wondering if Pelosi is looking like a buffoon intentionally becuse she’s in no danger of not getting re-elected, and she can play the “bad cop” to Obama’s “good cop” to help him out.

cnredd
Political Wrinkles
http://www.politicalwrinkles.com

cnredd on February 10, 2009 at 11:58 AM

Good catch!

However, everything now is just a narrative, don’t you know?

Who is the best story-teller is more important….

As long as you conclude the horror story with:

“Trust me. And every princess will get her prince (and unicorns, too). Happily ever after.”

Sir Napsalot on February 10, 2009 at 11:58 AM

I’m absolutely sure that POPULATION GROWTH isn’t factored into the equation.

birdhurd on February 10, 2009 at 11:59 AM

I love the second chart. Bush actually did the best at managing his recession! Who’da thunk! And remember, he had to deal with the dot-com bust, Enron/WorldCom, and9/11, one right after the other. Seems that his tax cuts and Greenspan’s rate cuts really did do the trick.

rockmom on February 10, 2009 at 11:59 AM

What’s wrong with you all… don’t you know some graphs have new meaning.

regal on February 10, 2009 at 12:00 PM

I can’t believe that they would be this stupid. Arrogance and stupidity don’t mix, and I am starting to believe it’s more like Arrogance and deception.

http://www.therightscoop.com/mark-levin-the-worlds-biggest-spender/

funsutton on February 10, 2009 at 12:01 PM

Benjamin Disraeli once said that there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Is that so? I always thought it was Mark Twain who said that. This is what’s great about hotair.com; it’s educational.

radjah shelduck on February 10, 2009 at 12:01 PM

Where are our local trolls to tell us once again that since Obama has said this is the worst economic situation ever, that it must be true, regardless of what mere statistics say.

MarkTheGreat on February 10, 2009 at 12:02 PM

I love the second chart. Bush actually did the best at managing his recession! Who’da thunk! And remember, he had to deal with the dot-com bust, Enron/WorldCom, and9/11, one right after the other. Seems that his tax cuts and Greenspan’s rate cuts really did do the trick.

rockmom on February 10, 2009 at 11:59 AM

No, he only offshored the worst of it.

Now the nation is paying for Bush’s jobless “recovery”.

sethstorm on February 10, 2009 at 12:03 PM

Wait, doesn’t Peloci’s graph chart in numbers, not percent? And it is measuring from the peek?

Count to 10 on February 10, 2009 at 12:03 PM

Ed: Thank you for this and your many other enlightenments. You are making a budding economist out of my teenage son on his way to college this year.

gracie on February 10, 2009 at 12:04 PM

I’m absolutely sure that POPULATION GROWTH isn’t factored into the equation.

birdhurd on February 10, 2009 at 11:59 AM

You’re right, the above charts only count job losses, not job losses as a percent of the population.

That would make the current recession even milder in comparison.

MarkTheGreat on February 10, 2009 at 12:04 PM

Now the nation is paying for Bush’s jobless “recovery”.

sethstorm on February 10, 2009 at 12:03 PM

It’s amazing how a “jobless recovery” can end up in a record number of new jobs. In the US even.

MarkTheGreat on February 10, 2009 at 12:05 PM

GOP priority 1 needs to be taking the House back and getting rid of Pelosi, the Senate will obviously have to wait but hope that losses in 2010 or minimalized.

Then focus on Senate and Obama for 2012

jp on February 10, 2009 at 12:06 PM

sethstorm on February 10, 2009 at 12:03 PM

note to troll, those are outdated DNC talking points. They stopped using them in 2003 going into 2004 election and dropped the Hoover rhetoric thanks to the Millions of new jobs added.

So far, Obama has a negative Job Growth record……he’s doing everything he can to see that continues

jp on February 10, 2009 at 12:09 PM

Wait, doesn’t Peloci’s graph chart in numbers, not percent? And it is measuring from the peek?

Well, let’s see, because she has an agenda, and using the percentages wouldn’t show the data in the worst possible light, instead of being a fair comparison.

The population has grown, the work force has grown. If you halve the tax of both a low income person, and a high income person, they both receive the same 50% reduction in their taxes, even though one receives far less money then the other.

I hope Mike Pence get’s the corrected graphs out on the floor.

Keith_Indy on February 10, 2009 at 12:09 PM

As if anyone expected anything less. If I were her, I’d play the numbers too. Most people won’t get it.

Did you all -really- expect to like anything that happened in the next 2 years. It’s always been a question of “how bad will it be”

God bless China; who may save us from this by refusing to buy more of our debt.

lorien1973 on February 10, 2009 at 12:09 PM

The MARKET is really responding to the “stimulus” in a negative way.

What losers – Obama, Reid, Pelosi – losers that are running the

US off a cliff. I really, really, really hate it when I am proven right….

Obama may have won an election – but he will lose a country.

izoneguy on February 10, 2009 at 12:10 PM

I love the second chart. Bush actually did the best at managing his recession! Who’da thunk! And remember, he had to deal with the dot-com bust, Enron/WorldCom, and9/11, one right after the other. Seems that his tax cuts and Greenspan’s rate cuts really did do the trick.

rockmom on February 10, 2009 at 11:59 AM

Shallowest, but longest.
Hmmm. Looking at this, it appears that the faster jobs drop initially, the sooner the recovery happens. That would imply that either a) recessions with slow decline inherently last longer, or b) preventing the job loss prevents the recovery, or at least delays it.
I’m inclined to go with b), even if it reflects poorly on P. Bush. Though, I think the 2001 “stimulus” was more payouts-disguised-as-tax-cuts, while the actual tax cuts happened two years later.

Count to 10 on February 10, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Call me when the “misery index” hits 25. That’s what it was at its peak in 1982. Today it’s less than 10.

rockmom on February 10, 2009 at 12:12 PM

jp on February 10, 2009 at 12:09 PM

You fail to account for the H1/L1 abuse.

sethstorm on February 10, 2009 at 12:13 PM

Pelosi will go down in history as the one who has done the most harm to our country by looking after her special interest groups instead of her country’s best interest. The worst, Speaker. EVAH. Unfortunately, we’re the ones who are going to suffer under her power unless someone can reign her in.

scalleywag on February 10, 2009 at 12:13 PM

Interesting that the recessions with the fastest drop off also seem to have the fastest recovery (July ’74, March ’80, July ’81). Also, shouldn’t the severity of the recession be measured in terms of the area between the curve and the zero baseline (rather than deepest drop or longest extent)?

DarkCurrent on February 10, 2009 at 12:15 PM

Call me when the “misery index” hits 25. That’s what it was at its peak in 1982. Today it’s less than 10.

rockmom on February 10, 2009 at 12:12 PM

Seconded.
The sad thing is, I expect P.BO to take us there.

Count to 10 on February 10, 2009 at 12:15 PM

What this really tells us, is not how dishonest Pelosi is, it is how stupid her followers are.
I guarantee, they will buy this as the complete story…hence we have Obama as president.
It couldn’t be more obvious…

right2bright on February 10, 2009 at 12:16 PM

Why doesn’t she show photoshopped pictures of the sky falling?

64% of the public would buy it.

fogw on February 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM

And what percentage of voters will ever see this example?

That’s why we’re losing.

WisCon on February 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM

Everyone should be listening to Rush today. He’s talking about events last September prior to the election.

Cody1991 on February 10, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Interesting that the recessions with the fastest drop off also seem to have the fastest recovery (July ‘74, March ‘80, July ‘81). Also, shouldn’t the severity of the recession be measured in terms of the area between the curve and the zero baseline (rather than deepest drop or longest extent)?

DarkCurrent on February 10, 2009 at 12:15 PM

I agree, but this chart has more problems than that. Measuring the number of jobs is going to mix with trends in demographics, and won’t necessarily reflect the state of the economy. Its a hard thing to measure, and I’m sure she went fishing to find some statistic that she though proved her point–which basically renders this meaningless.

Count to 10 on February 10, 2009 at 12:19 PM

Here is the latest lib jobs related talking point being copy/pasted around the internet:

Unemployment originally rose from 4.2 percent in January 2001 to 6.3 percent in June 2003, in December 2008 it was over 7%. In December 2007, the United States entered the second-longest post-World War II recession, which included a housing market correction, a subprime mortgage crisis, soaring oil prices and a declining dollar value. In November 2008, over five hundred thousand jobs were lost. That marked the largest loss of jobs in the United States in 34 years. Over 2 million NET jobs were lost(i.e. 0 created) from 2001-2009

jp on February 10, 2009 at 12:19 PM

The sad thing is, I expect P.BO to take us there.

Count to 10 on February 10, 2009 at 12:15 PM

That is the problem, I don’t think he will take us there, I think our economy is too strong for congress to destroy it.
We will come out of this, despite all the wrong decisions, and it will be made to look like congress actually did something.
We are in a cycle, they may delay us coming out of the cycle, but they can’t stop the cycle…it is like trying to stop the weather with announcements about “global warming”.
Our national and international economy is much greater then these egomaniacs understand…but their ego demands that they think they have an effect.

right2bright on February 10, 2009 at 12:19 PM

I remember 1974. They had massive layoffs at the paper mill here. The whole town came out and took a pic of all laid off people and sent it to the White House asking the President to do something.

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 12:21 PM

Also showing losses as a percentage of change can amplify the apparent losses. Math is FUN!

Neo on February 10, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Can we tie her to a stake and **** her? So sick of this wacko.

sheebe on February 10, 2009 at 12:28 PM

Nancy Pelosi doesn’t care what you think or if you believe her chart or not. This woman is a politician – the worst sort of human being that has ever existed. . . ever. . . ever. The only thing she cares about is remaining in her position of power and for that, she will do ANYTHING. The only thing that could ever get her attention would be low poll numbers in her district.

King of the Britons on February 10, 2009 at 12:30 PM

OT..anyone listening to Rush? Hes talking about a run on the banks, a big sell-out of a ton of money that happened in the fall. Money invested in a money market fund pulled out and sold. $55o billion dollars worth.

I always thought this was set up by the Dems and Soros to get Obama elected. Why am I not surprised?

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Nancy Pelosi doesn’t care what you think or if you believe her chart or not. This woman is a politician – the worst sort of human being that has ever existed. . . ever. . . ever. The only thing she cares about is remaining in her position of power and for that, she will do ANYTHING. The only thing that could ever get her attention would be low poll numbers in her district.

For years the San Fran Nan People never squawked about Nancy. The other day in the San Fran chronicle, they had plenty to say about her. It wasn’t good either. I was stunned but I do believe that San Fran Nan has had enough of Pelosi!

sheebe on February 10, 2009 at 12:32 PM

Right on cue, Obama, Pelosi, and Reid swoop in and snatch depression from the jaws of recovery.

Christien on February 10, 2009 at 12:34 PM

I always thought this was set up by the Dems and Soros to get Obama elected. Why am I not surprised?

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Here’s a link to the story Rush is discussing: http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/seashell/2009/02/sept18-congressional-leaders-t.php

Rush, I believe, is missing a piece to the puzzle and that is the Fed’s decision to let Lehman Bros. go BK. That was on or about Sept. 13th. Soros was/is a large shareholder in Lehman and I believe he owned Lehman debt as well.

Cody1991 on February 10, 2009 at 12:34 PM

I always thought this was set up by the Dems and Soros to get Obama elected. Why am I not surprised?

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Great point. What happened to all that money that BO got? Why don’t he chip in then?

sheebe on February 10, 2009 at 12:34 PM

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 12:30 PM

Because the Nazi Collaborator and convicted felon tried to do the same thing to Britain in 1992 w/Major by destroying the pound. He failed. Unfortunately, he appears to have been more successful this time.

A good account of this is in Bernard Connolly’s The Rotten Heart of Europe.

PimFortuynsGhost on February 10, 2009 at 12:40 PM

Hmmm let’s see there was a recession in 1975 and 1981 and 1990 and 2001 and lookey here there is a recession in 2008.

It’s almost as if recessions happen every 7-10 years or something. My god, what’s happening today is exactly what is SUPPOSED to happen. Let’s spend $2T to fix it.

angryed on February 10, 2009 at 12:41 PM

How many more days left before the end of O’s presidency?

originalpechanga on February 10, 2009 at 11:48 AM

This many

AZ_Mike on February 10, 2009 at 12:42 PM

Because the Nazi Collaborator and convicted felon tried to do the same thing to Britain in 1992 w/Major by destroying the pound. He failed. Unfortunately, he appears to have been more successful this time.

A good account of this is in Bernard Connolly’s The Rotten Heart of Europe.

PimFortuynsGhost on February 10, 2009 at 12:40 PM

Yep. And Soros is Jewish. He’s also suspected of engineering currency collapses elsewhere, and he’s been convicted by the French of fraud (or something).

Cody1991 on February 10, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Nancy is looking a little harried lately. Her coif is often straggling, her makeup hastily applied and her smile forced. Maybe it’s all getting to her? Keep up the good work.

jeanie on February 10, 2009 at 12:45 PM

Cody1991 on February 10, 2009 at 12:43 PM

Yeah, I somehow doubt Soros is the most observant Jew (and has said as much)–he is more of a secular progressive (which is line w/ his collaboration–which he admitted during a 60 Minutes interview in ’98).

Link here to his conviction for insider trading

PimFortuynsGhost on February 10, 2009 at 12:56 PM

Sorry, try that again:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A05EEDD1F3DF932A15751C1A9649C8B63

PimFortuynsGhost on February 10, 2009 at 12:57 PM

Pelosi, of the “most honest, most open, most transparent congress” evah? Pelosi lie? Next thing you’ll tell me is that she’s blatantly partisan.

Where’s the MSM on this?

GarandFan on February 10, 2009 at 1:02 PM

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 12:30 PM

I always knew that Soros had his fingers in this, and now we get the first ties to it. The Dems owe him big time…hope we can continue to peel this onion. How long will Americans remain clueless?

hoosiermama on February 10, 2009 at 1:03 PM

Cody1991 on February 10, 2009 at 12:34 PM

Thanks for the link.

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 1:08 PM

Honest government under a socialist?

Never gonna happen.

jukin on February 10, 2009 at 1:10 PM

Thanks for the link.

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 1:08 PM

You’re welcome. I share your views about Soros.

Cody1991 on February 10, 2009 at 1:11 PM

I read that article Rush is talking about last night. It struck me as reading like a Tom Clancy novel.

The Motley Fool guys are telling people that the stock market has slid and continues to slide because big investment funds have had so many redemption requests from investors that they have to keep dumping stocks to raise the cash. They say that at some point this will stop and the market will go back up rapidly as investors jump on the bargain stocks. Has nothing to do with any stimulus spending or tax cuts.

rockmom on February 10, 2009 at 1:11 PM

He is a man not to be trusted…and he is in bed with the Democrats.

ew…scary thought. In bed with Nancy Pelosi.

becki51758 on February 10, 2009 at 1:13 PM

I wonder how much of that job loss is due to the minimum wage increase?

JohnJ on February 10, 2009 at 1:14 PM

Why doesn’t she show photoshopped pictures of the sky falling?

64% of the public would buy it.

fogw on February 10, 2009 at 12:17 PM

Here‘s the cartoon, from 1943, but still relevant today. Scan ahead to 2’55″ to watch Foxy Loxy start learning the lessons of psychology:

“To influence the masses, aim first at the least intelligent.”

“If you tell them a lie, don’t tell a little one, tell a big one.”

“Undermine the faith of the masses with their leaders.”

“By the use of flattery, insignificant people can be made to look upon themselves as born leaders.”

It’s all in the cartoon. Disney was prophetic.

Loxodonta on February 10, 2009 at 1:19 PM

rockmom on February 10, 2009 at 1:11 PM

This isn’t a great chart, but look at the middle of September and what ensued just in time for the election:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Cody1991 on February 10, 2009 at 1:24 PM

Tie her to the rear bumper of a Greyhound bus, and floor it right out of Washington, thank you very much…

D2Boston on February 10, 2009 at 1:37 PM

The Pelosi Spiral
Step 1. Create a financial crisis through social engineering.
Step 2. Blame crisis on capitalism and conservatism.
Step 3. Demand more social engineering to fix crisis.

whitetop on February 10, 2009 at 1:59 PM

Even Pelosi’s chart would seem to argue that we need to do what we did for the last 2 recessions. How did we handle those? I don’t recall a trillion dollar spending pacakge for those. I do seem to recall a round of tax cuts for one of them. Seems to have kept those recessions rather shallow.

So why wouldn’t we do what we did in the face of those recessions, but on a bigger scale?

hawksruleva on February 10, 2009 at 2:10 PM

The Pelosi Spiral
Step 1. Create a financial crisis through social engineering.
Step 2. Blame crisis on capitalism and conservatism.
Step 3. Demand more social engineering to fix crisis.

whitetop on February 10, 2009 at 1:59 PM

This is exactly how the Left has always operated. The Democrats caused this banking crisis by forcing them to give loans to people that could not pay the banks back. So they forced socialist policies on the banks. Now that the banks are going broke because of a socialist policy and interference with the free market, the Democrats state boldly that “capitalism” and “free markets” don’t work.

And what is there solution to all of this… more socialism of course.

Maxx on February 10, 2009 at 2:24 PM

One big ~ P O W E R * G R A B ~

petefrt on February 10, 2009 at 2:33 PM

Here’s the silver lining: Obama-Reid-Pelosi are keeping us safe. The jihadists won’t attack our Homeland again, so long as we’re doing such a good job of destroying ourselves.

petefrt on February 10, 2009 at 2:38 PM

And more than anything, the lesson to be learned here is that Nancy Pelosi has been deeply dishonest about this recession.

Pelosi, lies? Isn’t that saying the same thing?

BoSox_or_Bust on February 10, 2009 at 2:49 PM

I think as far as the analysis goes, it’s right. But the trillions being thrown at the bank bailout bottomless pit doesn’t show on the charts.

It’s when that wasted money kicks in, inflation, that the true spiral will become known.

Making loans to people who couldn’t pay, and guaranteeing those loans through Freddie and Fannie is also not in the picture yet. They both need bailouts, they ran out of money to give their Democrat caretakers.

tarpon on February 10, 2009 at 2:49 PM

Also showing losses as a percentage of change can amplify the apparent losses. Math is FUN!

Neo on February 10, 2009 at 12:24 PM

Actually, that’s the best way to compare them, rather than absolute numbers of jobs lost. Pelosi’s graph compares absolute numbers of jobs lost, but since today’s labor market is much larger than than of 1991 or 2001 (due to population growth and economic growth during the Clinton and Bush 43 years), the percentage losses are lower.

What I’d like to see is a graph of budget deficit as a fraction of GDP. After the Pelosi-Palooza Spend-a-Thon, 2009 will look like a bigger spike than Al Gore’s “hockey stick” for temperature, at least prior to 1998.

Since global temperatures have been going down over the past 10 years, maybe the deficit/GDP ratio will decline under President Jindal or Palin.

Steve Z on February 10, 2009 at 4:38 PM

So, Bush did inherit a recession in 2001?

WoosterOh on February 10, 2009 at 6:01 PM

Since global temperatures have been going down over the past 10 years, maybe the deficit/GDP ratio will decline under …

Steve Z on February 10, 2009 at 4:38 PM

You’re presuming that those 2 people whom are damaged goods would win.

sethstorm on February 10, 2009 at 7:34 PM

The lead in picture is more telling than the graphics.

It simply shows that Ms. Pileo’sh!t is as empty headed as she is empty handed. I am sure she really thinks she is showing the public something that is as useless as she is.

MSGTAS on February 11, 2009 at 9:58 AM

The proof is in pudding which is Ms. Pilosh!t IQ. If we loose 500,000,000 people to unemployment every month the entire population of the world will be unemployed by years end.

Maybe that is what she was wishing and hoping for, so the Messiah has a clean slate to solve the world’s problems that were caused by the Demoncrates.

MSGTAS on February 11, 2009 at 10:04 AM