Good news for Republicans?
posted at 1:20 pm on February 9, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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Michael Barone sees some good news for Republicans in a few places where they rarely find it. In New York, New Jersey, and even in Barack Obama’s Illinois, Barone finds Republicans taking surprising early leads in important races. And Virginia may have drifted back into the red column as well:
In the 20th District of New York, vacated by the appointment of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Republican nominee Jim Tedisco leads Democratic nominee Scott Murphy, 50 percent to 29 percent, according to Tedisco’s pollster. That’s not bad, but it’s certainly not dispositive. Tedisco benefits from high name identification; he’s the Assembly minority leader (and it’s quite a small minority: Republicans have 41 seats and Democrats 109). Murphy is capable of self-financing, and in this one-media-market (Albany) district, that counts for a lot. On the other hand, it appears that Murphy has some tax problems.
I interviewed Tedisco last week on Thursday’s TEMS installment, and he’s definitely got the energy to fight for the seat. He’s already bested Eliot Spitzer in Albany infighting, and Gillibrand only won that seat by convincing NY-20 voters of her conservative credentials. Tedisco has the highest profile of anyone likely to run for that seat, and his victory would boost Republicans fighting against the big-spending policies of the Democrats in the House.
In New Jersey, Quinnipiac reports that U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, 44 percent to 38 percent. That’s a pretty dismal number for Corzine. He’s got all the money in the world to overcome it, but it may take more than money. New Jersey is in dreadful fiscal shape, with high taxes and oodles of big government.
Well, I’d wait a while before counting out Corzine. He’s a tough politico, and Republicans have a history of fading at the finish in the Garden State. However, 38% barely covers the Democratic registration in New Jersey, which means that Corzine has managed to marginalize himself with the independents. Will that continue to be the case? I’d guess that Obama’s performance might have a great deal to do with the answer.
In Illinois, former Chicago, Philadelphia, and New Orleans school superintendent Paul Vallas is returning to Chicago and running as a Republican for Cook County Board president. In 2002, Vallas finished a close second to Rod Blagojevich in the Democratic primary for governor.
Yes, I would bet that Illinois voters would like a do-over on that election now. Vallas will challenge Todd Stroger, who has rather ineptly carried forward the family tradition of patronage in Cook County. With Richard Daley fighting off a federal probe into corruption, voters might want a fresh face to balance off the Daley Machine in Chicago — but Vallas is probably still a long shot, even with his change in party affiliation.
In Virginia, pollster Scott Rasmussen shows Republican Robert McDonnell ahead of each of the three Democrats competing for their party’s nomination …
Terry McAuliffe has the biggest guns in this race, having been the DNC chair and major fundraiser for Bill Clinton during his presidency, but his national reputation as a partisan attack dog won’t help him in Virginia. McDonnell won a state-wide race, barely, but still shows strength across the state. This will be the race to watch for a measure of how well Obama will help or hurt the Democrats without being on the ticket himself. Virginia is home to at least half of the Beltway crowd that doesn’t live in DC proper, but a negative reaction to Obama’s policies might start with this race.
I’d expect the Republicans to recover somewhat in the midterm and special elections over the next two years, especially if Obama continues to fumble the leadership question. If the economy has not remarkably improved by next year, expect a landslide result against the massive expenditures Obama pushed through Congress.
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If recent history has taught us anything, it’s that Democratic voters couldn’t care less if their guys have tax problems.
MarkTheGreat on February 9, 2009 at 1:23 PM
But the R’s and the Indies do.
INC on February 9, 2009 at 1:25 PM
Exactly right. They only care if Ohio plumbers have tax problems.
capitalist piglet on February 9, 2009 at 1:25 PM
Build on the momentum, don’t get complacent with merely being a few % points ahead in polling. Stay true to conservative fiscal & social issues and the Red wave will sweep the country.
portlandon on February 9, 2009 at 1:26 PM
Yeah, if you guys are counting on a Republican getting elected governor in NJ, your smokin some serious stuff. Unless its another Christie Todd Whitman republican. Which I would argue is just as bad as a democrat. We have people leaving Jersey in droves.
MDWNJ on February 9, 2009 at 1:29 PM
Chris Christie will win unless the conservatives sabotage him. Which they like to do in New Jersey.
I’m thrilled that Paul Vallas has come out as a Republican. That in itself should be encouraging to Republicans. He is one of the biggest and most highly respected names in education today and worked successfully with very partisan Democratic mayors. I wondered why he didn’t get a look as Education Secretary. He did an amazing job in Philadelphia.
rockmom on February 9, 2009 at 1:29 PM
Where is MediaHacks to tell us (for the 982nd time) that America is abandoning conservatism and embracing fringe liberalism?
Bishop on February 9, 2009 at 1:30 PM
Just think what would happen if Republicans located their lost principles.
Hey Steele, you listening to these three amigos in the Senate selling their votes for favors? How you gonna build a party on that crap, much less attract new members.
tarpon on February 9, 2009 at 1:32 PM
yawn puff piece to try and make you feel good for something that is entirely too far away to accurately take the temperature
gatorboy on February 9, 2009 at 1:34 PM
Michael Barone is a smart guy, very knowledgeable about electoral politics, who is roughly 65% to 75% liberal.
While I thought he did a very good job during the election season, his recent column in which he cooed about Obama showing “a coolness and sense of command” in advocating for his stimulus gave him away as a Kool Aid drinker.
Yes, Obama is so uber-cool an in command that he considers a radio personality his arch enemy and, even worse, bumps his head on Marine One. Now that should be worth 4 years of SNL episodes.
BigD on February 9, 2009 at 1:36 PM
Paul Vallas, a Republican? I’ve always thought the Democrats had control of NOLA politics.
I can’t say he did a bad job with the Recovery School District in Louisiana. There’s plenty of room for improvement but its has been doing its job of getting underperforming schools in the state to improve.
Lay-Z on February 9, 2009 at 1:37 PM
How many times is NJ gonna break our hearts?
jacrews on February 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM
Oh, I see he just changed parties recently.
Lay-Z on February 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM
A poll 22 months away is worthless. If you don’t believe that, take a look at Bush 41’s approval rating of 80% about losing to Clinton.
Rs probably will do OK in 2010. The party out of the WH usually does in mid-terms. But Illinois? New Jersey? Republican wins? Put the pipe down and walk away slowly.
angryed on February 9, 2009 at 1:41 PM
Encouraging, but we need to stay awake and continue with the pressure on the Socialist Party’s failings…
DL13 on February 9, 2009 at 1:42 PM
He either got called to the principal’s office or, if he’s old enough to be commuting to college, his mother said that he had to get off the computer-thangy and clean his room.
BuckeyeSam on February 9, 2009 at 1:43 PM
Someone explain to me how this is good news?
I don’t give a crap if they are republican or democrat anymore…. it doesn’t seem to matter.
upinak on February 9, 2009 at 1:45 PM
I’ll wait and see here in NJ. I live in Bergen County which I think has the highest tax rates in all of NJ, yet the idiots here keep electing democrats.
NY has more hope of a republican victory. Especially if Giuliani runs for governor. If so, I might move to NY. I know he WILL fix NY’s economic woes.
jencab on February 9, 2009 at 1:52 PM
It’s a long way out to be sure – but just as the Dems had a fair amount of power being an oppo party, so do the Repub’s now. As always this will come down to individual races (which is why a vote for the StimBill in the HOR’s matters to blue dogs) and the next two years will either make the case for the Dems vision, or destroy it. I don’t think that the economy will pick up much by YE 2009 and 2010 won’t be much better if O raises taxes (which he’ll have to in order to pay for all of this crap). As a small business owner, if my taxes go up (or if think that they’ll go up) any capital investment in the foreseable future will be off the table which means no real economic growth.
The real thing that may damage O in 2010 will a combination of many small failures (domestic and international) that in aggregate cause his numbers to nose dive (not GWB territory but worse than now). I know that we’re all focused on the domestic front right now, but I still think that O’s legacy will be determined by some international event that he’ll have trouble dealing with when confronted. IOW’s, I don’t think that he’ll be able to enjoy a cruise control presidency – which is what I think he was counting on when he announced in Jan. 2007. Just my opinion.
volnation on February 9, 2009 at 1:54 PM
I wouldn’t be so sure about that Ed. Little Todd Stroger has made such a mess out of Cook County, I think even Daley and the rest of the dem’s want him gone.
Even Blago and his bloated ego can’t hold a candle to the stupidity and ego inflated Todd Stroger.
Knucklehead on February 9, 2009 at 1:57 PM
While I don’t think that the Repub’s will take back either house in 2010, any gains will be damaging (albeit slightly) to O and the Dem’s. Obviously, the more seats lost by the Dems the better, but a few pick ups here and there will suffice, especially in the Senate. I think that the Repub’s chances in 2010 and 2012 will depend wholly on how well they stick to message and principle.
volnation on February 9, 2009 at 1:59 PM
What do you mean, ‘if’?
Vashta.Nerada on February 9, 2009 at 2:01 PM
normally I would agree, but with all the ACORN voter fraud, and the flood of illegals, don’t bet on it.
right4life on February 9, 2009 at 2:07 PM
blago was just a victim of good hair-hating people..bet Fitzgerald wears a rug….
right4life on February 9, 2009 at 2:08 PM
“If the economy has not remarkably improved by next year, expect a landslide result against the massive expenditures Obama pushed through Congress.”
While the House and Senate might take a hit, I’m sure The Chosen One will just smile and say “They screwed up”.
GarandFan on February 9, 2009 at 2:11 PM
Which is why it is so very important to make it clear that this bill comes out of Nancy Pelosi’s office without any GOP input. And also why the GOP should punish any RINO that votes for this bill. The landslide is only going to happen if the GOP stakes out the principles now.
highhopes on February 9, 2009 at 2:15 PM
Amen. I want to know if they are conservatives or socialists. What does it tell me that someone switched parties in Illinois? I’d say they realize the D has been tarnished with all the crap dredged up by the Blago case and they don’t want to be associated with it. I have my doubts it means their ideology has made a big transformation.
pannw on February 9, 2009 at 2:16 PM
Just for the heck of it — what did Michael Barone do to his hair — dye it blond?
Back in the day, it was dark. Today, it’s not gray.
BigD on February 9, 2009 at 2:17 PM
When Michael Barone speaks… people listen.
stenwin77 on February 9, 2009 at 2:19 PM
There is a name for this in the Army “Hurry Up and Wait”
Dr Evil on February 9, 2009 at 2:30 PM
It’s Just for Men Beige.
IrishEi on February 9, 2009 at 2:43 PM
as for Virginia, there is alot of infighting within the Dem party for their gubernatorial candidate. Don’t ask me why–they should pick the one who can win & support him (i sometimes think this is what Republicans should do). The Republican running in Virginia is Christian Right. Once the Dem. Beltway crowd really sinks their teeth into that, I think the Republican will have trouble.
kelley in virginia on February 9, 2009 at 2:50 PM
They’re all moving to Delaware where there are still some jobs and no sales tax.
Which is exactly what my family did when I was 10 years old.
UltimateBob on February 9, 2009 at 3:21 PM
No sales tax in the land of Biden. That is surprising.
angryed on February 9, 2009 at 3:29 PM
only one person could have possibly revived the Repubicans……Barack Hussein Obama……stupidest person in the world.
notagool on February 9, 2009 at 3:31 PM
Cap’n Ed’s right about Corzine having alienated the independents. I have a feeling that Chris Christie is gonna shake things up a bit. Lonegan’s already tried and failed, and Merkt is way too conservative. Christie, however, is largely an unknown factor.
Paul_in_NJ on February 9, 2009 at 3:48 PM
Yeah, but…we’re still going to have to pay those trillions of dollars.
Yikes.
Bob's Kid on February 9, 2009 at 6:23 PM
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