Iran warns Hamas not to waver
posted at 7:58 am on January 12, 2009 by Ed Morrissey
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In case anyone wonders who pulls the strings with Hamas, the latest from Tehran should make it clear. The Iranians sent a delegation to Damascus as soon as they heard about the Franco-Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire — to warn Hamas leadership of the consequences of accepting it. But does Khaled Mashaal have any effective control over what remains of the Hamas command structure in Gaza?
Iran is exerting heavy pressure on Hamas not to accept the Egyptian proposal for a cease-fire with Israel, an Egyptian government official said on Sunday.
The official told The Jerusalem Post by phone that two senior Iranian officials who visited Damascus recently warned Hamas leaders against accepting the proposal.
His remarks came as Hamas representatives met in Cairo with Egyptian Intelligence Chief Gen. Omar Suleiman and his aides to discuss ways of ending the fighting in the Gaza Strip.
The Hamas representatives reiterated their opposition to a cease-fire that did not include the reopening of all the border crossings into the Gaza Strip, Hamas spokesmen said on Sunday.
According to the Jerusalem Post’s sources, Iran threatened to cut off all support for Hamas and other Palestinian factions (presumably Islamic Jihad) if Hamas accepted the cease-fire. They want war with Israel, but without getting their own hands dirty. The Egyptians, for one, are unimpressed with Iran’s courage, pointing out that Iran hasn’t fired a bullet against Israel themselves and won’t allow volunteers to join Hamas.
Why do they want Hamas to keep provoking Israel? The Egyptian official speaking with the Post believes they want to distract the world from their nuclear program, but I’d bet the Iranians have Israel specifically in mind. The rest of the world won’t stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons, but Israel probably will, if given the chance. Iran wants Hamas to fight an open war with Israel to keep the IDF from attacking its nuclear sites in the near term.
What does that mean for Iranian nukes? It suggests that the Iranians are closer to actual production than people have estimated prior to now. Hamas’ sudden desire to lift the cease-fire in late December, using a November 4th incident as the supposed provokation for their rationalization, makes a lot of sense in that context. The Iranians would worry most about covert strikes as they near completion of their effort, and they need Israel tied up for months, not weeks, to keep them distracted.
Will Israel attack Iran anyway? This would give them a cassus belli all by itself, a way to impose some cost on Iran for its war-by-proxy on Israel. But if they do attack, they’d better be sure they get enough of Iran’s nuclear program to make it count.
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War by proxy
grapeknutz on January 12, 2009 at 7:59 AM
Time for BHO to have that chat with AckMyDumbJihad over Arabian coffee!
jgapinoy on January 12, 2009 at 8:07 AM
If there was any doubt left that Iran is the instigator of much of the terrorism around the world – this should put an end to that. With oil trading at $39 a barrel today, Iran’s monetary support of terrorism is not what it was six months ago. They need there minor leaguers to have a good showing.
Coming from a different perspective, I don’t want a cease fire either, but for different reasons. I want a decisive victory over Hamas. This will deal a blow to Iran and other terrorist supporting nations around the world.
Tommy_G on January 12, 2009 at 8:07 AM
Can Iran make the consequences for wavering worse than the consequences for not wavering? I don’t think so.
backwoods conservative on January 12, 2009 at 8:09 AM
Frankly, I would hope that Hamas does not waiver…and likewise, I would hope that Israel finally accepts that a cease-fire at this point will do Israel no good at all in the long run. Sherman’s march to the sea comes to mind, and I would hope that the IDF and Knesset understand that the term “cease-fire” has vastly different meanings. Only the total destruction of Hamas as a military organization and destruction of the Hamas leadership in Gaza will suffice. So long as Hamas can play games with cease fires and agreements, Hamas will be perceived as the victor in all of this.
As for the Iranian nuke program…only Israel seems to understand the peril of allowing Iran to continue unfettered.
Public opinion be damned. Israel has an opportunity to change the ground rules. They have the upper hand. Folding now would be the dumbest thing the Israelis have done since they tried to rely on airpower to defeat Hezzbollah back in 2006.
As for Omar Suleiman, from personal experience, he is one of the shrewdest, most intelligent players in the region. He also understands that he can allow Israel to destroy Hamas and still come out with Egypt on top. Hamas is a thorn in his side, and has been for a long long time. He is no friend of Iran, either. He is a pragmatist, at least, and a guy you do not want to play poker with. If allowing Israel to act as a proxy for Egypt in ridding Gaza of the Hamas pestilence is required, look for it to happen, with Egypt’s sub-rosa approval conveyed to Israel.
coldwarrior on January 12, 2009 at 8:12 AM
What would be the diplomatic implications of atttacking the Hamas leadership while the Iranians are with them? Would that be an act of war against Iran? For that matter, if it were possible for Israel to take the Iranians into custody, would that be an act of war?
njcommuter on January 12, 2009 at 8:14 AM
Khaled Meshaal and Iran are willing to fight to the last drop of ‘Palestinian’ blood. But so are the Egyptians.
Carl in Jerusalem on January 12, 2009 at 8:17 AM
If this was a sane world, this news alone would end any sympathy for Hamas and for the despotic regime in Iran among the nations of the world that value peace.
Of course, I have given up on sanity for some time now, and I fully expect the condemnations of Israel and her few supporters to continue unabated from the usual suspects, as if peace would break out all over if only the mean-spirited Israelis (and of course the evil, imperialist United States) would only give peace a chance.
At some point, Iran is going to have to be dealt with, and the longer the wait, the more difficult and costly it will become to thwart their ambitions.
hillbillyjim on January 12, 2009 at 8:24 AM
As for attacking Iran’s nuclear program, uranium enrichment requires enormous quantites of electricity. Hence most of these facilities are near power plants. If Israel were to significatnly disrupt Iran’s electrical grid, it would disrupt the production of enriched uranium (assuming they still do not have enough for a bomb) as well as send an already disgruntled population over the edge towards internal revolution.
Lots of “ifs” here. No matter what they should ignore the worldwide Joo-haters and destroy Hamas. The other big “if” is if Israel does this, will the Palestinians in Gaza be amenable to actually living with Israel or are they as fanatic as the party they elected? Sadly I think that question borders on the rhetorical.
J.J. Sefton on January 12, 2009 at 8:25 AM
Take out the entire country of Iran if necessary.
They’ve tolerated the goat-sodomizing, lunatic, sociopath Mullahs for decades.
It’s either them or us and I much prefer us.
We have the ways and means, let’s use them.
NoDonkey on January 12, 2009 at 8:26 AM
njcommuter on January 12, 2009 at 8:14 AM
Interesting thought. Israel carrying out an operation in Damascus would be difficult but not impossible. One has to look at the long-term fall-out. An “act of war?” Sure. But, Israel has been in a state of war since the beginning.
Killing or abducting the Hamas leadership in Damascus may raise the stakes but does not change the overall state of affairs when you look at the totality of it all.
Letting Iran know that Israel will not cower under the “threats” from “Amadinnerjacket” and putting the little guy in the windbreaker on public notice that Israel has no regard for him at all may serve to undermine his position vis-a-vis the Majlis and the bulk of the Iranian people. Most Iranians were not around when the Shah was deposed. The rule of the mullahs grows more tenuous daily. Israel pulling the rug out from under Ahmedinajad in full view of the world, and Iran, may be just enough to have the mullahs remove him.
coldwarrior on January 12, 2009 at 8:29 AM
Only for another eight days.
Tommy_G on January 12, 2009 at 8:34 AM
We’ve heard “Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon” for years now, coming from leading Democrats and of coarse all Republicans.
Just words? Just speeches?
Walk the talk!
Keemo on January 12, 2009 at 8:37 AM
But what will it take to remove the mullahs? Aren’t they, rather than the bellicose pipsqueak, more of a long-term threat?
hillbillyjim on January 12, 2009 at 8:40 AM
While Iran is the current culprit, we should not lose track of the fact that the problem is Islam. The values that Islam teaches are the values of bullies and thugs. Egypt’s seemingly more conciliatory approach is simply that of a bully afraid of being beaten up by a bigger bully.
thuja on January 12, 2009 at 8:42 AM
Iran wants Hamas to keep fighting until Iran can hand them a nuclear weapon to use as the ultimate suicide bomb.
doriangrey on January 12, 2009 at 8:53 AM
hillbillyjim on January 12, 2009 at 8:40 AM
The mullahs in Iran control the strings, but are not a unified body. There are several factions, and quite a few are more interested in religious matters than matters of state. After 30 years mullahtocracy in Iran, a large and growing portion of the population have had their fill with the constantly changing and draconian rules laid out by the mullahs for the conduct of everyday affairs. Imagine young kids executed for possession of rap and hip-hop CD’s. (As much as I can’t stand rap and hip-hop, the idea that young Iranians are willing to risk death, torture or imprisonment to get this “decadent” music speaks volumes.)
Iran had a long history of being way ahead of the Arab world in development, freedoms, and a vibrant middle class…then came the mullahs. Now, Iran is well behind the curve when compared to the Arab world, save for its vaunted nuclear program, a program developed at the economic expense of the Iranian people. The fall in oil prices hasn’t helped Iran at all, either. Infrastructure is pretty much shot to hell all over Iran today. A far cry from pre-1979 days.
The mullahs can either deal with the issues at hand with more crackdowns, or they can learn to deal with the people’s demands. They are suited well for the former, not at all for the latter.
One good spark…that’s all that is needed to bring down the mullahtocracy. Show the people that the mullahs and Ahmedinajad are the problem…let the chips fall.
coldwarrior on January 12, 2009 at 8:53 AM
Iran has done the wrong thing and awakened the sleeping giant left in the USA. Obama is going to be forced to act soon. Perhaps within 6 months of him taking office. Joe Biden has proven himself to be a prophet of sorts (not to be confused with profit). If Obama doesn’t act or waffles then Israel has no choice but to attack Iran for arming and supporting Hamas and other terrorists. We
are not likely to hear the left calling for the elimination of Iran any time soon but the new Secretary of state will call for obliterating Iran if it attacks Israel History marches on.
kanda on January 12, 2009 at 8:57 AM
IIRC, there are a thousand bunker busters on their way to Israel from Greece. Due at end of the month.
OldEnglish on January 12, 2009 at 8:58 AM
I have no doubt that the day after Iran hits Isreal with a nuke, the UN will condemn Isreal for causing so much air pollution.
MarkTheGreat on January 12, 2009 at 9:00 AM
And these are the people Barry wants to sit down and negotiate with?
What an imbecile.
kingsjester on January 12, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Quoted for effin truth….
doriangrey on January 12, 2009 at 9:05 AM
If Iran succeeds in preventing a cease fire, and they should be able to since they pay the bills for Hamas, it looks like Biden’s prediction during the campaign is going to come true very fast.
petertheslow on January 12, 2009 at 9:07 AM
Wars should never end in cease fire! You have to take it to the point where one side begs to surrender unconditionally.
Eventually one side will lose their will to fight.
Only then can natural order is restored.
Respeck!
TheSitRep on January 12, 2009 at 9:08 AM
Since Iran wants Hamas to stay the course, I think it is only fitting that Iran’s leadership goes to Gaza and lead them in this fight…
right2bright on January 12, 2009 at 9:12 AM
Although I was told in a previous post that I was being a dreamer, I really do think the Israelis have something up their sleeves regarding Iran. They’ve flown practise runs to Greece, there appears to be preparations for all sorts of crazy crap.
Now it could just be a way to have lots of tough rhetoric. Or the IAF practises, the bunker busting bombs, and the weirdo leak to the NYT this weekend are a cover for something else…..
Israelis are notoriously tight lipped and wily. We’ll see what they got going down.
mjk on January 12, 2009 at 9:16 AM
With the repressive security and the control of the media organs present in Iran, it seems that short of war, the only way the mullahs’ stranglehold on Iran will change is violent revolution.
If the fortunes of the Iraqi people improve drastically, this could be an incentive that might allow that “spark” to catch tinder.
hillbillyjim on January 12, 2009 at 9:18 AM
We should put Reza Pahlavi II, Crown Prince of Iran on the Peacock thrown. He would whip them Mullahs into shape pronto.
kanda on January 12, 2009 at 9:22 AM
Interesting article today…appeared in Xinhua press…Iran denies offering $1 million for the assassination of Hosni Mubarak.
If, heaven forbid, Mubarak is removed…Omar Suleiman is in the best position to take over. Suleiman fully in charge in Cairo would be a bad thing for Hamas, and for Iran in the long run.
Perhaps removal of the current Iranian regime along with Hamas would indeed be a good thing.
coldwarrior on January 12, 2009 at 9:26 AM
I hope Israel destroys Hamas. This is their chance to stop their country being terrorized continually.
As someone else said..public opinion be damned. They need to finish this.
becki51758 on January 12, 2009 at 9:29 AM
hillbillyjim on January 12, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Those repressive media controls can often work against the current regime in Teheran.
This past October, the US and Iran agreed to allow Iranian bloggers come to the US to cover the US Presidential election. Then the carpet was pulled out from under them, after these bloggers obtained visas, booked air fare and such.
Incrementally, sometimes just a few Iranians at a time, over the past several years, word gets out and word gets in…a large segment of Iran understands full well why they are continuing to move back to the Dark Ages and why they are being kept out of the 21st century.
coldwarrior on January 12, 2009 at 9:32 AM
Interesting that the Iranians don’t let their people go help Hamas. I guess they don’t want all that urban jihadi training being turned against them in their own cities — a sign that Hamas has a purer strain of Islam than the mullahs of Iran. In my mind, that’s an excellent decision on their part — keep the vile pathogen they’ve laboriously grown in its own petri dish.
unclesmrgol on January 12, 2009 at 9:57 AM
Tommy, I was just thinking the same thing.
4shoes on January 12, 2009 at 10:28 AM
Nice little snippet in the Jerusalem Post…seems Hamas is using hospitals in Gaza to hold meetings, pay employees and the leadership, and conduct operational planning…all those wonderful things that are clear violations of Geneva. And the nasty bad mean old Israelis have decided not to bomb the daylights out of these facilities, even when they know Hamas has a large meeting going on.
Now…which of these is the bad guy in all of this?
Poor poor Hamas…once again a victim.
coldwarrior on January 12, 2009 at 10:32 AM
Any chance of this being the last time?
OldEnglish on January 12, 2009 at 10:47 AM
Someone needs to nuke Iran back to the stone age. They want nuclear war, by God I’d give ‘em all they could stand. It would be a salutary lesson for other tiny countries that think a couple hundred megatons of fissile material is all they need to act with impunity.
Seriously.
Venusian Visitor on January 12, 2009 at 10:48 AM
Since Iran captured British troops, it would be a nice turnabout for the Israelis to capture the Iranians.
Johan Klaus on January 12, 2009 at 10:59 AM
+1
beththebaker on January 12, 2009 at 11:06 AM
I would hope that they do. If they budge even an inch toward the Isrealis, the stupidity of what they did will become apparent to even the most clueless Palestinian on the street. Put Gaza through war, cause civilian casualties (looks like the score is 1 civilian for each Hamas combatant), and get NOTHING back?
What you should really be hoping is that the Israelis do not waver. If they toss Hamas the smallest bone, Hamas will call that a victory and the hudna will begin again.
I’ve gone over Ulysses S. Grant’s autobiography recently, and the logic of “unconditional surrender” is delightful. You take away the enemy’s honor, and then you give it back, and finally, while they have their honor, it isn’t really theirs anymore — it’s yours.
unclesmrgol on January 12, 2009 at 11:34 AM
unclesmrgol on January 12, 2009 at 11:34 AM –
Yep, that did read a bit off target.
Certainly, no Israeli acceptance of ANY cease fire or any other permutation of that concept until Israel is completely satisfied that any Hamas ability to launch attacks, or even organize above the individual level is gone, for good, with the clear understanding that ANY Hamas operation, be it a single suicide bomber or a couple Hamas followers firing off a single rocket towards Israel will be met with blood letting that Hamas’s great grandchildren will look back on and ask why great grandpa could be sooo stupid…
But, let Hamas continue to try to promulgate a war…for it gives Israel clarity that Hamas is not going to surrender until Hamas is dead, and license to carry on with all deliberate effort toward that end.
No hudna. Not now, never. Any rational observer can easily see what past hudna’s and cease fires have allowed Hamas and other Islamists to do…regroup, rearm, and re-direct operations with impunity.
And Grant was right…in our times, the Japanese became awfully compliant in a hurry when faced with a possible total destruction. It works.
coldwarrior on January 12, 2009 at 11:55 AM
Boy, it’s too bad that The One hasn’t already been inaugurated. Why, I’m certain he’d already have this whole thing sorted out!
/sarc
commenter on January 12, 2009 at 12:00 PM
I meant to get back to you sooner; I had to do some unvirtual reality errands…
Thank you for your responses and your other posts as well. I find that I learn something new or become aware of different perspectives that I would have otherwise missed when I read your comments.
From the level of your knowledge on many of our foreign policy threads, I have begun to suspect that you are no amateur to the field.
I would be interested in your opinion on how geopolitical realities will affect the upcoming administration and its stated goals and policies in the short and long term. (I’m sure you’ve already covered some of this in various threads over time).
Again, thank you.
hillbillyjim on January 12, 2009 at 12:38 PM
An excellent article–and some really clear thinking responses to it. Israel must fight on to victory–and must strike the Iranian nuclear facilities soon if they want to live.
***
HAMAS and the other “Palistinian” and Lebanonese terrorist groups are “cats paws” for Iran. They are expendable “useful idiots” for the Iranian dream of a new Muslim world state.
***
Israel will have to act alone–the new Obama U.S.S.A. and the other so called modern nations do not have the “cojones” to strike Iran. They are like the pre-WW2 democracies and the League of Nations who gave Hitler time to rearm and get strong enough to kill 50 million people. No Holocaust II will happen if Israel strikes soon.
***
It is time to pay back Iran for the hundreds (thousands?) of murders they have committed against us, other countries, and women, minorities, and political opponents in their benighted country. Fight on to victory–peace follows victory–it does not precede it.
***
John Bibb
rocketman on January 12, 2009 at 1:33 PM
Sacrifice the pawns….to spare the queen. Got it.
mindhacker on January 12, 2009 at 2:17 PM
Applicable…
right2bright on January 12, 2009 at 4:15 PM
Seconded!
OldEnglish on January 12, 2009 at 5:34 PM
I have stated for years that an effective strategy to shut down Iran would be some judiciously sized air bursts over their electrical generation facilities. Any weapon with a good EMP result would work. An EMP would paralyze their grid and smoke the centrifuge motors. It would also shut down their ability to do more harm in the world. Their citizens will rise up and defeat the religious nuts that got them into this situation.
There is one problem with doing this. Neighbor states would have to be warned to shut down their facilities on short order.
Lots of other problems come to mind, but ending a genocidal government might be worth it.
marcboyd on January 12, 2009 at 11:56 PM
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