Yes but despite the best efforts of the Air Force most of Saddam’s WMD stocks and facilities remained intact. The vast majority of that infrastructure was destroyed by the follow on inspection teams rather than in combat. It wasn;t until the inspectors got in there that they really knew the full extent of that. It highlights how combat alone can fail… you need both combat and diplomacy to a certain degree.

Back in the First Gulf War days in preparation for the assault on Iraq, i can remember Cordesman giving dire warnings about the “bomb proof” tunnels the Iraqis were hiding in. As soon as the US led coalition forces attacked Iraq, these “skilled” tunnel builders would cause “thousands of casualties” by crawling out of their “invulnerable” tunnels and attacking us from the rear.

In fact no such tunnels ever existed.

Wait ’til it’s over, and maybe he’ll see improvement in every area again.

NoDonkey on January 12, 2009 at 2:35 PM

Great points. It was well thought out and you presentated it very well..

I think Bush should sell the IDF about 500 Phalanx systems.

What now?

What now? Lemme tell you what now…

Oh, that ‘What now’! Never mind – :-)

At least there is a strategic concept. It might be the wrong one. But it might be the right one. If there is no strategic concept, then there is no chance of finding the right one.

Worked for the Carthaginians.

If Israel has a credible ceasefire plan that could really secure Gaza, it is not apparent. If Israel has a plan that could credibly destroy and replace Hamas, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to help the Gazans and move them back towards peace, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to use US or other friendly influence productively, it not apparent.

If Israel has any plan to take Gaza for the Israelis, it is not apparent.

One real and acceptable option is for Israel to treat this Gaza operation as a lawn care exercise, specifically a mowing and weeding activity. Israel may simply realize that, until conditions change, Israel will periodically have to stomp their enemies; hurt them so bad that it might be the next new generation that causes trouble.

The political aspects of such a defeat (the patron demanding to know why the fighting side failed, and the defeated soldiers claiming betrayal), a lawn-mowing-and-weeding operation in Gaza might just force peace on all in the area for perhaps 30 years, perhaps indefinitely.

This seems to have worked with Jordan, and to some degree with Egypt and Syria. 1973 is just over 30 years ago, and the 1982 conflict with Syria is approaching 30 years.

There may not be trust or friendship between Israel and the others, but there is not armed conflict, and the strategic forecast looks to be more of the same into the indefinite future.

There’s talk about negotiating with Christian Palestinians. How are Christian Palestinians, or more generally, non-Muslim Arabs treated in an Arab land?

– Hamas has been threatening, bombing and killing Christian Gazans over the last 2 or 3 years

– Bethlehem, once ~80% Christian Palestinian is now perhaps 20% Christian, and this is due to Muslim Palestinian acts (immigration, threats, violence, etc)

– Lebanon, perhaps 80% Christian in 1960, is rapidly becoming, if it isn’t already, a Muslim-majority state, due to Lebanese Christian emigration because of Muslim encroachment behavior

– Recall the multipart YouTube segments about Coptic life in Egypt

Negotiating with non-Muslims in a Muslim-controlled (not necessarily even Muslim-majority) state is a waste of time.

I know, I know, but I can dream, can’t I?

tommylotto on January 12, 2009 at 4:16 PM

But, the Japanese, like the Germans were bombed into submission.

The arms are being smuggled all the way through Egypt… you can’t convince me that Egypt could not shut them down (or at least seriously slow down the smuggling rate) if they did not want to.

Why has Egypt been given a pass on this?

Another is to try to affect the psychology of the Palestinians living in Gaza, to make them blame Hamas for this disaster instead of blaming the Israelis. That appears to be happening.

I’d decapitate Hamas… leave a power vacuum… then tell Egypt they have a choice….

Either take over Gaza, or we go Biblical, and start at the North end, and push the “Palestinians” out of Gaza, right through the Egyptian border.

Do NOT offer the Pals a state… do not offer them mercy… offer them either Israeli occupation, or Egyptian. They have PROOVEN they cannot Govern themselves.

Then rinse and repeat with Fatah, and Jordan.

Bring REAL governments into play… ones who have a vested interest in stability…

but then… I’m kinda an A-hole…. LOL…

The military and the politicians must somehow navigate through the middle ground, the no man’s land, to figure out how to create victory but somehow do it with compassion.

Just A Grunt on January 12, 2009 at 3:05 PM

The most compassionate form of war, if it exists, is to go in with massive, overwhelming and violent force and win at all costs as quickly as possible. This is how lives are saved, both combatant and non-combatant.

Militarily occupy Mecca, Medina, Tehran, Isamabad, Damascus, Constantinople, Cairo, Baghdad and Kabul (er, already got those last 2) and coercively compel the Islamic world to divorce its religion from its political and judicial systems and prohibit them from teaching their children any connection between religion and politics or law. After keeping our thumb on them for a generation or two, they might develop into productive world citizens like the Japanese after we divorced their political life from Shintoism.

I know, I know, but I can dream, can’t I?

OK military campaigning 101. Every one of them you kill cripples them. Ever casualty they suffer they have to replace. The second and third replacements are never as good or as competent as the ones they replace.

Killing the middle leadership is what this is all about. Kill the NCOs because officers are a dime a dozen. It is harder and more difficult to get middle level leaders then senior or executive leadership. These are the ones who say “follow me” and the “grunts” follow them through Hell in gasoline suits.

That is who Israel is after. Can these guys still parade around with their hankies covering their faces and looking bad and tough? Yes. Will they still be able to launch rocket attacks? Yes. Can Fatah take them on and defeat them? Let’s find out.

Just keep killing the leaders. If that doesn’t work, then and only then, start working down the food chain. The days of a bottoms up approach are over.

Does anybody know what the hell this means? Sounds like mindless babbling.

Andy in Agoura Hills on January 12, 2009 at 3:37 PM

You know exactly what it means and that’s why you don’t like it.

I wonder what Cordesman thinks of Hamas’s strategy or lack thereof.

Good question.

Everyone in the media seems to be of the mindset that these terrorist groups are almost a force of nature, like an earthquake or hurricane.

You can’t defeat an earthquake or a hurricane.

But then again, unlike western nations, Hamas probably doesn’t have a helpful chart and webpage explanation, lazy reporters can copy and paste.

Two experienced voices have come out about Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in Gaza and its tactical soundness.Allahpundit at HotAir quotes Anthony H. Cordesman, member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). In The War in Gaza: Tact…