I always love the Global Warming issues at HA. I work in “weather” and we employee several meteorologists here in fact. What I find highly entertaining is that *knowing* the current season, water temp, approx relative humidity (precip) and numerous other weather predictive indicators from TODAY, meteorologists and scientists **CANNOT** determine what the temp, wind speed/direction or precip (weather) will be like tomorrow with any real degree of certainty. In fact, my meteorologist buddies participate in a contest in which thousands of meteorologists and students of meteorology try and predict what the weather will be like for a week in a random city.

http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/results.php

You’ll note that it says “forecasters”…as in, they are making educated guesses.

So, what odds does anyone want to give me that ANY of the forecasts by the global warming (oops, I mean climate change) alarmists will have any relevance in say, 10 years from now?

You see, scientists don’t even understand how weather works and oceans work, or else they could accurately predict how hurricanes travel (and in those cases, they KNOW the conditions at the time in the surrounding areas) and there are several differing algorthms that will give paths within degrees of inaccuracy. So, how could scientists possibly understand how the earth will react to the introduction of more fresh water into the ocean’s supply, or the temp of the water rising, or of warmer weather causing more evaporation, or how much plant growth will result from increased temp and humidity/precip, or any of a billion different factors? The simple answer is, they **CANNOT**. The world’s weather systems react to changes, and it creates a median around which the weather is constantly fluctuating. Before humans ever developed fire, the weather changed and the global climate fluctuated, and if its natural fluctuations were varied due to volcanic activity or forest fires or whatever, it still reacted and recovered. Ages of cold and hot will still come and go whether we participate or not, so get your panties out of a bunch.

Al Gore is an idiot and a buffoon.

Geministorm on December 17, 2008 at 3:57 PM

The recent warming we’re seeing however does have a human component as neither additional solar radiation or changes in ocean currents (we’re seeing a reduction in flow of the Gulf Stream which if anything would make the Arctic cooler) are enough to account for the warming we’re now observing there, and elsewhere, in particular with regard to glaciers retreating almost everywhere around the world. So while the exploration of northern Greenland’s coastline is of definite interest, it’s not a refutation of human contribution to global warming.

starfleet_dude on December 17, 2008 at 3:50 PM

For the sake of argument (because we love to argue), let’s say that humans ARE affecting the global climate. So what?

Can you tell me the ramifications of such changes? Is the earth incapable of recovering from such changes? Will the trend (whether its cooling or warming) continue unabated forever and spell the end of all life on the planet? Does global warming = armagheddon? If we believe the AP reporter, then at the current rate, the oceans levels are rising 1/2 a mm per year. So, will the earth stay static and unchanging for a long enough period for the water to rise say 6 inches (304 years)?

Since you are so well informed, tell me what we have to look forward to because of mankind causing a rise in temperatures? That always seems to be where the Global Warming crowd breaks down…so what if temps and water levels rise?

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I can tell you that scientists do not have enough data points in order to determine whether mankind is the cause of any climate change as opposed to the numerous other weather factors (including solar activity). Beyond that, scientists have only the vaguest ideas of how the earth’s systems will react to climate change, and no matter what the alarmists say, the earth’s temps and water levels will continue to fluctuate with or without our participation. Life on earth has survived and flourished at much higher temperatures and at much lower temperatures, and yet here we are, no worse for wear.

Listen, if the alarmists want us to cut down on pollution because its bad for our environment, that’s great. But, creating this myth for the weak minded is abusive and manipulative. Once you hear that the discussion is over, then you know that what they are saying is wrong.

Geministorm on December 17, 2008 at 4:12 PM

I’ll just stick with one conservative prediction, which would be a rise in mean sea level of 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of five feet not being unlikely. How does that impact us? Well, we can kiss New Orleans and the coastal wetlands of Louisiana goodbye for starters. But the more dire consequences would be for coastal areas (in Bangladesh and China especially) where millions of people live and farm on land that’s hardly five feet above sea level currently. Also, a rise would pose problems for coastal cities that have lots of expensive infrastructure that’s been built at a lower sea level that would be threatened with innundation, especially during storms. The cost of dealing with it would be immense.

First off, I don’t agree with that ridiculous guess of 6 feet, that’s pretty out there and completely unsupportable. You say its “conservative” when actually its insane. I’m not saying that the water levels won’t rise or can’t rise, I’m saying that any scientist that predicts based upon his studies that the water levels will rise 6 feet in the next 82 years is a moron that doesn’t know a goddamned thing. Well, let me put a caveat on that, any “sane” scientist that values his reputation would never say that.

Secondly, you are stating that there is a current trend of warming that will continue for nearly 100 years. I’m sorry but this is where you (well, any scientific data that told you this) is completely WRONG. No scientist can possible determine how the trends will occur or work for the next 30 days, let alone for the next 100 years, are you even reading what you are writing? Can you possibly think that anyone knows how the earth will trend (not to mention stay constant) for the next 80 years?!?

Again, scientists *DO NOT* understand enough about the earth’s weather systems to make these wild statements. I’m telling you this from first hand knowledge, I’m not saying this from anything I’ve read on the internet.

Third, if water levels rise 6 feet over 82 years people will not lose their lives. Tracts of land will be lost, and people would migrate. Big whoop. Do you imagine that human development will arrest during the next 80 years and no technology will develop either? Listen, the water levels in cities all across the world have risen or the land levels have sunk at times (Venice, Alexandria, New Orleans [which is actually below sea level, if you've ever been there you can view that the levees are above the rest of the city]), etc.), and the populaces adjusted. Some just left the buildings to fall beneath the waters (Alexandria), some built upon the waters (Venice) and others built levees (NO). But, it wasn’t a calamity. Get a grip on yourself and man up!

Lastly, the cost of building infrastructure to withstand any rising waters spread over 50 years (assuming that rising waters are ignored for the next 30 years due to us ignorant goofs) will be essentially trivial.

Geministorm on December 17, 2008 at 5:06 PM