Harper still routing the opposition
posted at 10:00 am on December 13, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
A little over a week ago, Canada’s three opposition leaders tried staging an almost-unprecedented takeover of the government from the Conservatives, which have had a plurality in Parliament for over two years and had just added seats in a national election six weeks earlier. Prime Minister Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament before the three parties could offer a no-confidence vote, effectively sidelining the opposition until the Throne Speech and the budget bill at the end of January. In the immediate aftermath, polling showed that Harper and the Conservatives increased their popularity by shutting down the legislature and blocking the quasi-coup so soon after national elections.
However, Canadians now have had a week to assess the political scene, and the Liberals have dumped the architect of the quasi-coup, Stephane Dion, for Michael Ignatieff. What do Canadians think now about Harper? Pretty much what they thought of him a week ago:
In a week that witnessed the hasty departure of Stephane Dion as Leader of the Liberal Party and the selection of Michael Ignatieff as his replacement, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global National Television reveals that Prime Minister Harper still holds a significant vote-garnering hammer over his political opponents because of the support he would receive if the opposition forced an election, regardless of what has transpired since the Governor General prorogued parliament until late January.
If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive the support of 45% of decided voters (down 1 point), while the Liberals would receive 26% of the vote (up 3 points). The NDP would garner 12% support (down 1 point), and the Green Party would receive 7% support (down 1 point). Within Quebec, the Bloc has the support of 39% of Quebecers (up 2 points), which amounts to 10% nationally.
The key finding in the poll?
Similarly, opposition to the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition continues to be strong, even with Mr. Ignatieff as chief, with 57% of Canadians indicating that they ‘oppose’ the coalition (down 3 points). Conversely, 37% ‘support’ (unchanged) the coalition, while 7% don’t know what to think of it (up 4 points).
Canadians appear to be sending a message to Michael Ignatieff, the new leader of the Liberal Party: two in three (65%) believe he should ‘try to find a compromise with the Conservatives and keep the current government in power’, compared with the three in ten (27%) who say that he should ‘stick with the Liberal-NDP coalition and defeat the government’. One in ten (8%) don’t know what Mr. Ignatieff should do going forward.
When Parliament reconvenes, the three parties will almost certainly put aside any more thoughts of no-confidence votes. At 45%, Conservatives could win an outright majority and lock out the other parties from power for years. Voters have no burning desire to return to the polls, nor do they trust the leadership of the three lesser parties to run the nation, even while replacing the doltish Dion for the more respected Ignatieff.
In fact, the opposition now has to wonder when the political waters will calm to the point where they can compete in a national election. They have to hope Harper and the Tories stumble next year in at least as spectacular a fashion as their ill-advised attempt at a Canadian coup did. Don’t look for no-confidence votes in January for either the Throne Speech or the budget proposal. The three parties need more time to recover — and from the looks of it, a lot more time.
Blowback
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Glad to see you’re still engaged in Canadian politics Ed. Lot’s of good people in Canada, and they deserve the attention.
Keemo on December 13, 2008 at 10:10 AM
I find it amusing that the British still have a weapon to wield in Canadian politics. I like the way the bazooka was used — Dion never knew what hit him.
Interestingly, the Liberals in Canada seem to have the same divide-and-conquer mentality the Democrats do here:
unclesmrgol on December 13, 2008 at 10:15 AM
Maybe the Canadians see what we see when Congress/Parliament is out of session, nothing getting done. And it is usually better then the things legislatures feel compelled to do while working. I am an almost complete cynical now and it is totally against my nature.
Cindy Munford on December 13, 2008 at 10:17 AM
Quite a turn from Pierre Trudeau, eh?
SeniorD on December 13, 2008 at 10:22 AM
No this is an improvement over Trudeau because that was the darkest period in Canadian history. He suspended human rights nationwide and invaded Quebec to go after some “terrorists” – who were conveniently let go afterwards. Imagine if Bush or Obama did that with Bin Laden? Then he created the National Energy Program which created the worst economic depression since the 1930s. Trudeau was and remains the worst leader Canada ever had. Everyone else after has been an improvement, even Chretien who was basically a criminal and thug.
KillerKane on December 13, 2008 at 10:27 AM
The 3 stoogers from the Liberal (leftists), NDP (far lefists) and the Block (separatists) showed their true color. Voters are going to revolt against Larry, Mo and Curley and the conservatists will have the majority government in the next election. :)
poxoma on December 13, 2008 at 10:29 AM
Too bad we couldn’t have our own No-Confidence vote on both the new and old regimes in the US…..?
DL13 on December 13, 2008 at 10:29 AM
We had our no-confidence vote — it was called an election.
If you don’t like the results — run for office!
unclesmrgol on December 13, 2008 at 10:41 AM
I’ve had all kinds of people yap at me about how this coalition was legal and just under our constitution, the look on their faces when I tell them that Harper’s prorogue is also legal seems to shut them up in a hurry.
Now that Ignatieff has effectively been coronated as leader of the still bankrupt Liberal Party, I expect them to back off and lick their wounds for a while as they simply can’t afford to fight another election.
While Harper’s plan to remove public money from election campaigns was inflammatory, I hope it made the other parties realize just how worthless they are.
G-man on December 13, 2008 at 11:01 AM
I’ll agree with that. I’m always amused at our politicians’ blather about “needing to do important work for the American people” while in session. To some degree, we voters have enabled their arrogant self importance to flower, with our special interest projects. I’m always more at ease when they are out of session.
a capella on December 13, 2008 at 11:10 AM
Long term, there’s got to be some difference.
Dion couldn’t articulate a thing in English.
YYZ on December 13, 2008 at 11:14 AM
The Liberals had no “confidence” in Harper but LESS confidence in Dion who they were willing to inflict upon Canadians all for the sake of gaining power. And to suggest their coalition wasn’t a three party deal (Lib, NDP, Bloc) is to “liberally” apply the rules of counting.
I actually hoped their coup would work for then it would add more fuel to the continually growing Western separatism movement (where I’ve been since 1980), esp. in Alberta and I was quite surprised and somewhat disappointed the GG (another Liberal appointee from the CBC, but she only had a profile in Quebec) prorogued Parliament.
wharold on December 13, 2008 at 12:30 PM
Darn straight. Trudeau basically drove Canada into the ground but so many outside of Canada think he was the bestest ever. Too bad us Canadians know better, hmmm?
I still hope the opposition tries this crap. I suspect they’ll get beaten to the ground by the Canadian people. I know I wrote them all a letter and called them a disgrace to Canada and that I would never vote for them again. (voted Lib and NDP once each when I was young and naive)
mjk on December 13, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Absolutely love the Curly/Shemp analogy.
Canuck1955 on December 13, 2008 at 12:42 PM
Anybody who knows anything about Canadian politics knows that pre-election polls are meaningless. A lot of people change their minds when they the issues and personalities come into better focus during the course of a campaign.
I Support the Conservatives but there is no way the Liberals won’t do a lot beter under Ignatieff than they did under Dion.
Basilsbest on December 13, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Liberals are liberals: unable to accept the vote of the people.
Mallard T. Drake on December 13, 2008 at 1:00 PM
mjk: no, I think that many within Canada overlooked his crimes and saw the image rather than the substance. I was in Toronto when he died and people there cried like he was some sort of hero. You should have seen the looks I received – as an Albertan who remembered the NEP – when I cheered his demise. I wanted to spit on his grave for throwing my whole town out of work. He was and hopefully forever will be the worst leader Canada ever had. I pray no one worse than him ever comes along.
I’m glad, however, that he was born on this side of the Atlantic. Had Pierre the Terrible been born in a Europe with fascism, communism and Nazism, and no moral constraints, his ambition would have taken him to the depths of evil. I imagine he would have been a leading lieutenant to Himmler or Beria.
KillerKane on December 13, 2008 at 1:02 PM
For me with all that is happening worlwide, I think it is about time we start seriously thinking about one country AMERICA comprised of CANADA, USA AND MEXICO. Being from western Canada and knowing the feeling that we have for our govt. and how many of western canadians believe how much better off we would be if we were and american state, plus just think what Mexico would be like if it was a part of America. WE need to come together and pool all our resources, talent and ingenuity to retain our position as a world democratic power and free enterprise capitalistic nation. The knowhow and capital would turn Mexico into something to truly behold, the natural resources of both Canada and Mexico would immediately stop us all from relying on our enemies for our energy needs. Agriculturally we would be untouchable. I was born and educated in Canada, my professional life was in the USA and am now retired in Mexico. I have 4 grandchildren in Canada and 6 in the USA, but all of them have duel citizenship.For their sake nothing would make me happier then to see a united america.
amex on December 13, 2008 at 1:02 PM
What a first-class read on the situation, Ed, and I completely agree. I continue to pray for Stephen Harper that he defends and defeats this attack against him and the Canadian people.
apacalyps on December 13, 2008 at 1:07 PM
How nice it is to have a reasoned view of the “interesting” politics in the Great White North. I admire Harper’s ruthless politics. The GG had no choice but to concur with the PM and shut down the coalition coup. It really was an important precedent to stop such a thing so forcefully. A minority situation is kind of ideal really. Canada’s system allows mighty abuses with majority governments, Trudeau’s rape of the West through the NEP comes to mind. Harper may have maxed out his potential in terms of seats he can win, but his party has is setting the country on a better course for the future.
jbutson on December 13, 2008 at 1:20 PM
I didn’t know their nicknames were Curly and Shemp. Thought all Canadians were nicknamed Gordon.
whitetop on December 13, 2008 at 1:31 PM
I think it is about time we start seriously thinking about one country AMERICA comprised of CANADA, USA AND MEXICO. Being from western Canada and knowing the feeling that we have for our govt. and how many of western canadians believe how much better off we would be if we were and american stateamex on December 13, 2008 at 1:02 PM
I am not sure if I know what you are saying. If you are implying that The US should be one with Canada and Mexico? Then I do not agree with that. Especially Mexico! That is absurd to say the least. US needs to stay alone as one Country. If anything then let it be just Canada. Leave Mexico out of this. They have ruined enough here in the US.
sheebe on December 13, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Ed, thanks for keeping our southern kin up to speed on the despised coup leaders. However, the meme of the Canadian media has always been to suggest we hate elections and again we see them falling back to this position. Who’re you going to believe – CBC or your lying eyes? Make no frozen bones about it my friend – Canadians do have a desire to go to back to the polls and in this region at least (decisively CPC), they would gladly crawl over broken shards of pack-ice in the perpetual winter darkness to get there. Understandably, without living it, you underestimate the disdain held for Quebecois arrogance – look closer and you’ll see that the gathering lustful acceptance of secession in the west is indicative of our rejection of the Powercorp-backed Trudeaupianism that has enslaved us for forty years. Never again.
Quite simply, the coup attempt has galvanized us unlike anything in our history (aside perhaps Paul Henderson’s goal in ’72) and the political landscape has been drastically altered forever. Ontario wants in – while more and more Canadians want Quebec out.
13blackcats on December 13, 2008 at 2:15 PM
If this triggers another election, in order for it to accurately reflect the claims of this coalition of convenience, the Liberals, NDP and Bloc would have to amalgamate and run as one party (The Coalition Party) against the other parties (Progressive Conservatives, Greens, etc.).
If this Coalition Party were to win the election, only then could they say that they were chosen by the majority of the people.
As it stands, the coalition was not voted on or chosen by Canadians (other than its engineers, the back-room political dealers, including the Liberals who had previously promised they would not form a coalition with the Bloc).
Josephine on December 13, 2008 at 2:23 PM
ignatieff, like his one-time bosom-buddy/crony at harvard samantha power, is an anti-Israel piece of crap.
he also went very soft on iraq.
he’s a coward, a leftie, and a fool.
harper should not relent; he should eff em – BIGTIME!
reliapundit on December 13, 2008 at 3:18 PM
Let’s hope my countrymen don’t find this out, or his popularity will soar. If you add-in anti-American he’ll be a shoe-in.
By Canadian standards he was resolute on the liberation of Iraq. He didn’t turn against it until 2004 or 2005.
Basilsbest on December 13, 2008 at 3:24 PM
The guy on the left, literally and politically, looks like Lenin.
Entelechy on December 13, 2008 at 3:30 PM
I say that Canada was a covert supporter of Op Iraqi Freedom. Chretien made a secret deal with Bush in order to do so.
US Air Force report states 31 personnel and 3 aircraft supported Coalition military operations in 2003, during the war.
Operation Iris was the military designation for the rebuilding of Iraq.
Many Cdn military exchange officers served in Iraq too. Some flew C-17s, others served on the ground or at sea. One was even a three-star general serving as deputy corps commander, and is now the Chief of Defense Staff. Lovely.
Most importantly, Canadian industry supported the US war machine with weapons, vehicles and equipment. There’s no escaping but Chretien’s alleged “principled” stand opposing Iraq was a lie.
KillerKane on December 13, 2008 at 3:48 PM
Canada did covertly participate in the liberation of Iraq. It was necessary for the participation to be covert because the vast majority of Canadians, particularly Quebecers have an irratonal hatred for Americans. This hatred is engendered by the Canadian media establishment. It is sickening.
Canadians feel about Americans the same way as Democrats feel about Republicans. Blind seething irrational hatred.
Basilsbest on December 13, 2008 at 4:01 PM
[That's the Conservative Party of Canada, Josephine. The Red Tory, oxymoronic Progressive Conservatives are no more.]
andycanuck on December 13, 2008 at 4:08 PM
ignatieff is a left wing douchebag. Here are two choice essays of his:
The second one really steamed me.
this essay
and
The Lesser Evil
keep the change on December 13, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Supposedly Americans dislike Congress, except their own representatives. Which of course is very funny. I do indeed like my Congressman, except for a bad rug (how bad could he possibly look bald). But I can’t stand either of my Senators so I feel a little bit better about not being totally blind. I especially love it when they reply to my emails and tell me I am wrong. Lucky for me, no pet projects.
Cindy Munford on December 13, 2008 at 6:41 PM
Does anybody agree that the guy in the front of the picture looks like the guy in the Video Professor commercials?
Just sayin’, ‘s all.
RD on December 13, 2008 at 7:34 PM
LOL, just saw yours!
So – Perhaps Lenin would have gotten more folks on board, if only he’d had a sales pitch as good as the Video Professor:
“Were positive that, once you’ve tried Marxism-Leninism, you’ll come back to us for all your social dependency needs! So, what have you got to lose? The literature’s free, the propaganda posters are free, the gulags are free, and – if you’re not satisfied – we’ll even refund your shipping and handling charge. So what are you waiting for? TRY MY PRODUCT!”
RD on December 13, 2008 at 7:43 PM
I still think Harper should have let Dion have his day in power, forced an election and finally won his majority before allowing the Liberals a chance to regain credibility.
canadianrepublican on December 13, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Nothing’s changed. Harper is still a douche. The problem for all parties is that with the BQ, no one can get a majority. NDP’s support is growing every election. Harper can’t get a majority because he’s a neocon wannabe. And the Liberals can’t get any support because of the sponsorship scandal.
The coalition is not a coup and it has nothing to do with why any party can’t get the majority by themselves in an election. The reasons for that have been set a long time ago and the recent events won’t change it.
MrX on December 13, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Are their polls done by lying sacks of anal drippage like ours are? Just curious.
ex-Democrat on December 13, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Oh Cdn pollsters wish they were as clean and objective as American pollsters.
KillerKane on December 13, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Its not the same thing. Canadians are perfectly justified in their dislike/hatred of America. The U.S. invaded Canada in an attempt to annex its territories and destroy Canada as a sovereign nation. The U.S. was not successful. Tough luck but its hardly the end of the world.
aengus on December 13, 2008 at 11:29 PM
aengus’ post shows how sad the state of Canadian history is – or as I call it, Canadian “history”. It’s more like folklore, chronicle or myth than sober reflection and study of the past.
The US did not invade Canada in 1813-14, rather they sent troops to conquer British colonies. A combination of poor leadership and stubborn British resistance thwarted those efforts, resulting in a stalemate, not defeat or victory. The combined British defeats at Lake Champlain and New Orleans saved Canada from future attempts.
None of this matters, however, for since 1815 relations have been deep, complex and healthy for both. It will stay that way inspite of Canadian attempts to mess with it. These people are so insane that some wanted to retaliate against the US by cutting off energy exports. What they don’t realize is that the US can take it longer than they can dish it out. Ever see that South Park episode where Canada goes on strike and they end up starving within a week? That’s how it would be, except Alberta – which exports energy to the US – would be the 51st State by then.
Point is: don’t listen to Canadians brag, they’re full of it.
KillerKane on December 14, 2008 at 12:20 AM
Well, the FLQ were most assuredly terrorists. The issue was that Trudeau used the War Measures Act to jail and accost people who opposed him and not just round up the FLQ.
And no, the FLQ wasn’t conveniently let go after killing a British diplomat which brought about the October Crisis in the first place.
Every financial bill is a confidence vote. They are between a rock and a hard place. I expect that we go to the polls when Iggy is made official leader.
Krydor on December 14, 2008 at 7:09 AM
Yes the FLQ were let go. The Dictator provided them with a plane to fly to Cuba. When they did return years later, the maximum sentence they received was one year, a slap on the wrist for kidnapping and murder. They didn’t kill the British diplomat; it was the Quebec politician, who incidentally was a childhood friend of the Dictator. Trudeau (curse him) should have been removed from office and jailed for his crimes in this crisis.
KillerKane on December 14, 2008 at 8:44 AM
The War Measures Act was the only thing PET got right.
Some Wiki for ya
Paul Rose
Jacques Rose
Francis Simard
Bernard Lortie
Try again with your 12 months thing.
I have no idea why the Hard Right up here forces me to defend asshats like PET, and I wouldn’t if you folks would stick to the facts.
Krydor on December 14, 2008 at 10:40 AM
I still say they received lenient sentences for their crimes.
The FLQ were never terrorists. They were, in reality, a group of criminals who used a largely fictitious political agenda to legitimize their activities. They wanted to get themselves, their buddies and their families out of jail and out of the country, some cash, and to get the cops off their case. The demands for publication of their manifesto and to rehire those postal employees served to generate sympathy.
1. the release of 23 “political prisoners”.
2. some FLQ members who were out on bail at the time of the kidnappings, would be allowed to leave Quebec if they wanted.
3. all family members of the “political prisoners” and those out on bail would be able to join them outside of Quebec.
4. $500,000 in gold
5. the broadcast and publication of the FLQ Manifesto
6. the publication of the name of a police informant
7. an aircraft to take the kidnappers to Cuba or Algeria and while doing so they would be accompanied by their lawyers.
8. the rehiring of about 450 Lapalme postal workers who had been laid off because of their support of the FLQ
9. the cessation of all police search activities
The FLQ also stipulated how the above demands would be carried out:
1. the prisoners were to be taken to the Montreal airport and supplied a copy of the FLQ Manifesto. They were to be allowed to communicate with each other and become familiar with the Manifesto.
2. they were not to be dealt with in a harsh or brutal manner.
3. they must be able to communicate with their lawyers to discuss the best course of action, whether to leave Quebec or not. As well, these lawyers must receive passage back to Quebec.
Trudeau and his cabinet grossly overreacted to the “crisis”. All that they should have done was to send a few extra cops. Instead, they suspended human rights and invaded Quebec. Why would they take such extreme action? It wasn’t to go after the FLQ. It was, rather, to guard the rich English sections of Quebec from whose investments at stake, to reassure Ontario’s investors of the same, and to intimidate the average Quebecer into knowing who was in charge: the rich people.
Trudeau ought to be ranked with Augusto Pinochet as one of the Americas’ greatest human rights violators. If only he had been stopped in 1970, because he committed an even more serious violation in 1980 – a decade later almost to the day – with the imposition of the National Energy Program. October 28, 1980 ought to be a statutory holiday in Alberta in remembrance of those terrible years.
KillerKane on December 14, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Right you are, andycanuck. Thanks for the correction.
It seems I’m stuck in the past.
Josephine on December 14, 2008 at 5:46 PM
KillerKane on December 14, 2008 at 12:18 PM
I ‘spose I’ll need a refresher on what terrorism is. Terrorism is a tactic, and they used that tactic, hence they were terrorists. You may not think their agenda was legit, but they had their fans. That whole movement is not well understood.
PET broke their back.
I have no love for the NEP, my folks lost a business because of the NEP.
Krydor on December 14, 2008 at 6:35 PM
Pierre the Terrible was the separatists’ best friend! His heavy-handed actions in 1970 convinced Quebecers to drop armed confrontations and pursue democratic means. Hence, the Party Quebecois, which held two referendums on the matter.
Worse, he turned Albertans, once the most patriotic of Canadians, into secessionists with his NEP.
Trudeau was the worst thing ever to happen to Canada.
KillerKane on December 14, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Yes, he was so much their best friend that they were blown away in the first referendum. Don’t forget that Brian Mulroney gave birth to the Bloc and that Chretien nearly lost the country.
The PQ was around prior to the October Crisis.
Krydor on December 14, 2008 at 9:16 PM
the FLQ were alot like the weatherunderground of the the day. hell. they killed people and everything. our FLQ is a sitting judge and your guy is an educator/obama BFF.
ROCK ON
kellyjane on December 14, 2008 at 10:48 PM
The Separatist Ideology struck a chord with a whole bunch of the Quebecois. The Weather Underground never went mainstream to the same degree.
Krydor on December 15, 2008 at 8:25 AM