Georgia run-off: Chambliss up big early; Update: Chambliss wins
posted at 8:29 pm on December 2, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Surprisingly big: With 28% reporting, he leads by 30 points. He’s expected to win but not by much more than five, so expect a long, agonizing evening of watching the blue counties roll in and slowly wash away the margin.
If Martin pulls the upset, that’s 59 seats, which would mean 50 votes in Minnesota are all that separates us from filibuster Armageddon. Somewhere in Maine, a nervous Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe watch the returns, wondering just how much ass Harry Reid will end up having to kiss…
Update: The filibuster lives as the AP calls it at a little after 9 p.m. A surprise blowout: With 81% reporting, Chambliss leads by 17.
Update: Good point at Hotline. Now that a filibuster-proof majority’s unlikely, the stakes of getting Franken elected are much lower. Maybe that means the Dems will eschew the nuclear option of challenging the Senate not to seat Coleman.
Update: Whatever happens, The Hill’s reading the tea leaves of Martinez’s departure and hinting that even if the Dems haven’t beat the filibuster this time, odds are good that they’ll beat it in 2010.
Still, the fact that the GOP exodus is continuing just one month after the 2008 election is bad news for Republicans, with their deficits in both chambers appearing insurmountable in the near term and 30 House members and six senators already having retired last cycle…
The GOP also has to deal with more seats to defend (19) than Democrats (16) and a less appealing target list.
When the 111th Congress begins, four of the five oldest GOP members will be facing reelection. Most of them have already insisted they are running, but questions remain about some of them.
Update: What would black turnout have been like if The One had campaigned personally for Martin?
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The Dhimmicrats are contesting 300,000 ballots for Chambliss. You read it here first.
Charles Martel on December 2, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Wonder if the MSM will now claim that Sarah was a drag to Chambliss. Saxby should have won by 35 points.
technopeasant on December 2, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Now 43% reporting.
Saxby 63%
Martin 37%
Elizabetty on December 2, 2008 at 8:34 PM
myea. he’s got it in the bag boys
Drunk Report on December 2, 2008 at 8:35 PM
52% reporting.
Chambliss: 61.9%
Martin: 38.1%
amerpundit on December 2, 2008 at 8:37 PM
The first in a long string of victories for the Cuda.
faraway on December 2, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Cuda 1, Obama 0
faraway on December 2, 2008 at 8:38 PM
The image of Harry Reid kissing Olympia’s Snowe’s ass is something I really didn’t need going through my head.
Mark1971 on December 2, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Did you notice how Sarah defined Saxby’s key vote in the Senate not so much to preserve his seat but to preserve America and to help the GOP rebuild the party so it can beat Obama in 2012. Sarah is incredible how she can simply the issue before Georgians. Plus Georgians know by boosting Saxby they are also boosting Sarah’s chances if she decides to run in 2012.
technopeasant on December 2, 2008 at 8:39 PM
This will be a good win for the party and for Ms. Palin.
sherry on December 2, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Yeah, man. That Ludacris sure can bring out the voters, can’t he? /sarc off (for the Liberals who don’t understand)
kingsjester on December 2, 2008 at 8:41 PM
The Obama lemmings weren’t reminded on their cell phones to vote for the democrat.
SouthernGent on December 2, 2008 at 8:43 PM
55% Reporting.
Chambliss: 61.9%
Martin: 38.1%%
amerpundit on December 2, 2008 at 8:44 PM
The early voting in this election had a much lower black turnout.
Also, Sarah is a draw to the Republican base.
It is all about turnout.
Right_of_Attila on December 2, 2008 at 8:45 PM
And somewhere else in Maine, a lowly blog commenter pours a glass of wine to help rid himself of that horrible image.
Slublog on December 2, 2008 at 8:45 PM
61% Reporting.
Chambliss: 60.5%
Martin: 39.5%
Certainly a nice lead but I’m not liking the trend here.
amerpundit on December 2, 2008 at 8:47 PM
Yeah, win this seat so democrats can blame republican obstruction for everything that goes wrong. That’s smart.
lorien1973 on December 2, 2008 at 8:48 PM
It’s tightening up…
61% of precincts reporting
Saxby Chambliss Republican – 60.5%
Jim Martin Democratic – 39.5%
SouthernRoots on December 2, 2008 at 8:48 PM
I can hear “Dandy Don” singing to Martin as I type….
Nelsa on December 2, 2008 at 8:50 PM
I think you underestimate the Democratic ability to place the blame on others despite reality. It won’t matter if they control 60 seats. They managed to blame not enough regulation on Republicans despite the GOP supporting it and the Dems being on record staunchly opposing it.
They can twist reality as long as the media plays along…and it does.
amerpundit on December 2, 2008 at 8:50 PM
There are blue counties in Georgia?
I’m so disappointed. :)
Bob's Kid on December 2, 2008 at 8:50 PM
I worry that 42 Republicans will not be enough to sucessfully stop (via the filabuster) some of the programs that Obama and the Democrats will push through becaue a number of the Republicans are either a RINO (e.g. Susan Collins, Olympia Snow, Arline Spector) or a maverick who wants to show the media that he is still the anti-conservative that they always thought he was (i.e. John McCain). If our filibuster hinges on getting Spector or either of the Maine Senators on board, it will be a difficult sell. We will need a couple of conservative Democrats to sign on.
RedSoxNation on December 2, 2008 at 8:51 PM
64% reporting.
Chambliss: 61.1%
Jim Martin: 38.9%
amerpundit on December 2, 2008 at 8:51 PM
amerpundit on December 2, 2008 at 8:47 PM
The lead’s going down, but if you compare to the general elections, by county, he’s doing much better.
Phoenician on December 2, 2008 at 8:51 PM
You are one really pessimistic fellow.
terryannonline on December 2, 2008 at 8:52 PM
The Democrats could have 99 seats and they and the media would still blame Republicans for obstruction.
Slublog on December 2, 2008 at 8:54 PM
I would be SHOCKED if martin came back. Chambliss by 10
ousoonerfan15 on December 2, 2008 at 8:55 PM
You mean Ludacris was just upstaged by our Ms.Palin?
canditaylor68 on December 2, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Chambliss is leading in Fulton County…he will win.
SouthernGent on December 2, 2008 at 8:57 PM
looks like all the scare tactics worked (surprise surprise)
gatorboy on December 2, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Frankly, Maine should be given…TO CANADA! Snowe and Collins are Democraps by default of their being wimpass RINO Republican Country Club Commie Lites.
As far as I am concerned about Democrats, THEY ARE THE SOCIALIST PARTY, The Republicans are the Democrats; and yes to the chagrin of you two-party fans out there, there will be a NEW GOP. That being the Constitution Party, whether y’all like it or not.
BobAnthony on December 2, 2008 at 8:57 PM
You nailed it. And I expect that they’ll still be blaming Bush 43 2 or 3 years from now for anything that goes wrong.
Red State State of Mind on December 2, 2008 at 8:57 PM
64% reporting.
Chambliss: 61.1%
Jim Martin: 38.9%
Still too close to call! I’d assume. Never mind on election night entire states were called with “0% reporting”.
Marcus on December 2, 2008 at 8:57 PM
I hope Chambliss loses
.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 8:58 PM
AP reports Chambliss the Winner accoring to Fox News.
Nelsa on December 2, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Outside the perimeter is all red.
erik on December 2, 2008 at 8:59 PM
only those who think Ms Palin is a valid political threat see this as a win for Palin and a loss for Obama. Next to Bush, Palin is the best thing going for the democratic party! Continue to flaunt her. Even she won’t be stupid enough to run in 2012 and be crushed as the right wing bible thumper zealot of the party’s choice … the GOP continuing to move to the right without the abiity to figure out it needs to become Reagan moderates again.
But maybe Palin should run again, as if she was not embarassed enough as McCain’s “girl” maybe a defeat of her own to pony up to is just what the good ole doctor ordered.
Chamblis will win tonight for the same reason he won in 2002, he is a senator running in a conservative republican state. Not because the idiot from Alaska showed up.
Monkei on December 2, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Why?
terryannonline on December 2, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Let’s remember this one warning: If you were General Patton would you consult or listen to German generals on how to run your campaign? Forget how the Dems or the MSM will react. Like Sarah said “This is the first step to rebuilding the GOP.” So let us rejoice if Saxby does indeed prevail.
technopeasant on December 2, 2008 at 8:59 PM
AP reports Chambliss the Winner according to Fox News.
Nelsa on December 2, 2008 at 8:59 PM
It must make AP sad when his pessimism doesn’t play out.
irishspy on December 2, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Martin is done
ousoonerfan15 on December 2, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Did my part.
erik on December 2, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Chambliss will take this by at least 15 points.
David in ATL on December 2, 2008 at 9:03 PM
BREAKING!!!!!
Fox News has made a call in the GA Runoff. Saxby wins the runoff. For the Dems and their hopes of a super majority…
ACCESS DENIED!
Score one for Super Cuda and to the people of Georgia…good job!
BobAnthony on December 2, 2008 at 9:03 PM
72% in and its still 60-40 for Saxby. He will remain the senator
ousoonerfan15 on December 2, 2008 at 9:03 PM
only 28,000 votes counted in fulton so far… about 15% of the precincts… but that number is a bit misleading… in the general, there were over 380,000 senatorial votes cast in fulton county, so the 15% of precincts are really all the small precincts probably in north fulton… the big ones have yet to weigh in, and when they do, expect those to go 2 to 1 in favor of martin… probably a net pickup of close to 100,000 votes.
still, looks like chambliss will get this tonight
gatorboy on December 2, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Because he’s an open-borders proponent and loves dem bailouts. He’s one of those that give the Republican Party a bad name.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Congratulations, Georgia!
Now please let Franken walk away with his tail between his legs.
sherry on December 2, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Chambliss wins…the Republican slide is officially over. Now onto the 2010 elections.
RedSoxNation on December 2, 2008 at 9:07 PM
I can’t even count the number of things wrong with that observation.
KingGold on December 2, 2008 at 9:07 PM
If Palin thinks that electing open-borders/bailout lovin’ Saxby has an important role to play in rebuilding the party, it’s a mark against her as far as I’m concerned.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:07 PM
Victory for Palin and Chambliss. Whooooooooooooooooo..
An Era of Hate on December 2, 2008 at 9:07 PM
sherry, Minnesota could be described as gravy if Coleman wins.
BobAnthony on December 2, 2008 at 9:08 PM
They will either ignore her contribution all together even though everyone understands that the key to winning run-offs is to get your base out to vote; or they will dismiss it by claiming, as I heard them say on CNN, that “social conservatives” really like her. “Social conservatives” is the new code word for right-wing snake-handling religious wackos who live in compounds and stockpile weapons in fear of Armageddon.
ramrocks on December 2, 2008 at 9:08 PM
So this is what a realignment looks like?
Mark1971 on December 2, 2008 at 9:08 PM
While we might lose Snow, Collins, McCain or Specter in filibuster battles there are some red state dems we could pick up from the other side like Begich, Nelson, Dorgan and others that have run as conservative Dems.
goat on December 2, 2008 at 9:08 PM
I did not wear my “I voted” sticker today because I did not want to remind the enemy to go vote. I knew the “good guys” would turn out and get the job done.
Too bad we are this excited about getting a clown like Saxby re-elected. Then again, I will take this clown over a 60 Dem Senate any day.
Elizabetty on December 2, 2008 at 9:09 PM
FloatingRock: this is only a first step. don’t worry your guy Obama will have 4 years to figure out a way to snooker the ‘Cuda’.
technopeasant on December 2, 2008 at 9:09 PM
Losing the ability to filibuster. That’s success for some people (idiots).
Right_of_Attila on December 2, 2008 at 9:09 PM
Completely off-topic, but…
DICK VITALE IS A TOTAL, COMPLETE IDIOT.
SouthernGent on December 2, 2008 at 9:10 PM
I just love Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. They are our plucky moderates in a land of extremists.
thuja on December 2, 2008 at 9:10 PM
It wasn’t about Chambliss. It was reviving conservatism in the abstract and saying no to a filibuster proof Obamanation.
ramrocks on December 2, 2008 at 9:10 PM
yup
joey24007 on December 2, 2008 at 9:12 PM
What would the final senate count be if Coleman wins? I have lost track.
sherry on December 2, 2008 at 9:13 PM
Success? With people like Saxby running the Republican Party I hope they fail.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:13 PM
You gotta win the skirmishes to win the war.
Local republicans got to start putting their foot down on RINOs. It starts on the grassroots level and guys like Chambliss get traction because of image and conservatives who don’t care.
Starlink on December 2, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Spector is up in 2010, and might tack to the right a bit to avoid a GOP conservative primary challenger. He barely beat Toomey before.
Wethal on December 2, 2008 at 9:15 PM
All right! A feather in the ‘Cuda’s cap! (Pardon the mixed metaphor. :-) )
Gina on December 2, 2008 at 9:15 PM
She was helping to drag his carcass across the line to prevent a filibuster proof senate.
thomasaur on December 2, 2008 at 9:16 PM
So a party that got .0000001% of the vote is going to take over, yeah right. Third party vote has shrunk every year since Perot. Instead of trying to break up the GOP you should join it and work within the party to help rebuild it. Ours is a two party system whether you like it or not.
goat on December 2, 2008 at 9:16 PM
This is great news! Now, if only we could develop a competing agenda, then we’d really have something.
Weight of Glory on December 2, 2008 at 9:16 PM
Not, of course, that the PA GOP would be fooled much by a Spector tack to the right, but at least we’d get two years of quasi-conservaive votes out of him.
Wethal on December 2, 2008 at 9:16 PM
From FloatingRock:
Saxby has an extremely important role to play: a vote against gun-control legislation. This was not lost on Palin, and in fact was mentioned by her in her speech for Chambliss.
Godzilla on December 2, 2008 at 9:17 PM
Nice.
Spirit of 1776 on December 2, 2008 at 9:17 PM
Well, Saxby not being a conservative aside, the filibuster only works so long as every one of the number vote the same way. Saxby and several other Republicans aren’t likely to be very helpful in that regard. It’s not like he’s going to help filibuster any of the issues that I’m most concerned about so I would just assume be rid of him.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:18 PM
He will probably win, but the big Demo counties (Fulton, Dekalb aka Atlanta counties) are still not in so expect the margin to get closer.
The only good thing other than the seat was having Sarah bringing it in for Chambliss.
lilliew on December 2, 2008 at 9:18 PM
Palin 1
Ludacris, TI, Young Jeezy 0
MedSchoolCatholic on December 2, 2008 at 9:18 PM
Saxby will be a filibuster vote. Sarah has already assured he would be; he dare not defy the ‘Cuda. He knows the backlash would be awesome.
technopeasant on December 2, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Palin delivers the base
jp on December 2, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Alas…
If they had a run off in Minnesota, I suspect the results would be similar.
BigWyo on December 2, 2008 at 9:22 PM
‘Cuda 1
Luda 0
Stick to rap music Luda.
terryannonline on December 2, 2008 at 9:23 PM
This has less to do with Palin than it does with being the first of many cases of Osama Obama Buyer’s Remorse we’ll be seeing in the next few years.
MrScribbler on December 2, 2008 at 9:23 PM
I’m glad some people actually know what the hell this was about.
Chambliss was the projection of the conservative wing of the GOP- now led by people like Palin.
Whether Saxby was conservative or not, he chose that strategy and called in Palin and is going to win by 10-15.
This was the 1st battle in the war for the conservative soul of this party and it was a splendid little victory.
jjshaka on December 2, 2008 at 9:24 PM
Are you a one issue voter?
terryannonline on December 2, 2008 at 9:25 PM
OK, except that one. Maybe it’s slightly better that he won—this time.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Note to Chambliss: you owe Palin, big time. Note to other RINOs up in ‘10: here’s your leader; fall in line.
james23 on December 2, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Rocks don’t float but turds do.
You must not live in GA you moron. Saxby isn’t great but we will be damned before we have that libtarded dork named Martin representing this state.
David in ATL on December 2, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Yahoo Luke!!!
gringo69 on December 2, 2008 at 9:26 PM
No
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:26 PM
james23: Right on brother.
technopeasant on December 2, 2008 at 9:27 PM
Ok I’m sorry you are a two issue voter: immigration and the bailout.
terryannonline on December 2, 2008 at 9:28 PM
Wrong.
Pumice has an average porosity of 90%, and initially floats on water.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:28 PM
So where is Raving Shankroid? Spouting off unhinged ‘I told you so?’
Oh, wait……
BigWyo on December 2, 2008 at 9:29 PM
its come to this:
http://menforpalin.com/
jp on December 2, 2008 at 9:29 PM
And somewhere in New York, another lowly blog commenter pours a glass of wine in anticipation of who – or more precisely, what – will be appointed to fill Hillary Clinton’s vacant seat. To serve alongside Chuck “Pay attention to MEEEE!” Schumer.
Oh happy days. Where do I find me one of those doctors I keep reading about who prescribe all the pills?
Gilda on December 2, 2008 at 9:29 PM
good start, thank you Palin for getting in the trenches and risking political capital for the GOP. Too bad Obama couldn’t make the trip, I guess he was too busy exercising.
rob verdi on December 2, 2008 at 9:29 PM
Sorry, not a two issue voter either, although those are two issues that are critical to our nation.
FloatingRock on December 2, 2008 at 9:29 PM
my respect for Sarah is so much higher after yesterday. She basically spent the entire day campaigning with Saxby. I would bet ALOT of money that none of the other people that came in for him spent that much time on the trail with him. It really does show a real sense of leadership from Sarah and she wants the best for the republican party
ousoonerfan15 on December 2, 2008 at 9:31 PM
Colmes is already spinning this, “shouldn’t he have won by more than 19 currently in Georgia”
jp on December 2, 2008 at 9:32 PM
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