Afghan voter registration going suspiciously … well

Military and diplomatic officials expected the voter registration effort in Afghanistan to produce violence and intimidation by the Taliban.  At the least, they expected to fight apathy among Afghans dissatisfied with a government widely seen as corrupt.  Instead, the process has succeeded so far in generating enthusiasm and avoiding any reaction from the Taliban.  American officials aren’t high-fiving yet, however:

The early phases of election registration in Afghanistan went smoothly enough that some defense officials admit to feeling suspicious. “It’s not what we expected,” says a senior U.S. military official in Afghanistan.

Though there have been some incidents of voter intimidation and isolated attacks on polling stations, the U.S. military has been generally surprised by the lack of interference coming from insurgent groups as voters here register for crucial provincial and presidential elections scheduled to take place next year. “It’s been reasonably free of intimidation,” adds a senior military official in Kabul.

“The next question,” says another senior U.S. military official, “is: Why is it going so well?”

There are a number of possible explanations, the official adds, among them that insurgent groups realized that massing the forces they would need to disrupt registration would cause heavier casualties than they were prepared to take. What’s more, registration got underway as fighting season is winding down, and resources tend to dwindle as winter approaches.

There’s a certain gift-horse vibe here.  Maybe we don’t want to question success too closely.  After all, we’d like to think that democracy would always be popular, even outside of the strictest definition of the word.  Perhaps the Taliban realize that interference would make their mission even more difficult than it already is.

That doesn’t square with reality, though.  A successful democracy would be the eventual death of the Taliban, and they know it.  That’s one reason why they will not likely ever divorce themselves from terrorism or their terrorist partners, as Bill Roggio reports again today.  People who govern themselves will not easily bend to those who want to impose totalitarianism by force.

If the Taliban haven’t organized an offensive against the voter registration drives, it’s probably because they can’t — and that’s good news, even if it might be due to weather or fear of NATO.  At this point, we’ll take that gift horse without a peek in the mouth.

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