No boosted turnout in this election
posted at 11:10 am on November 9, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Politico reports that estimates of voter turnout continue to decline in this year’s national election. At first, some predicted a turnout of 137 million. Now the estimates have declined to the point where the percentage of eligible voters would be the same as in 2004, but only if one accepts the idea that we’re still missing millions of votes from the final total:
Despite widespread predictions of record turnout in this year’s presidential election, roughly the same portion of eligible voters cast ballots in 2008 as in 2004.
Between 60.7 percent and 61.7 percent of the 208.3 million eligible voters cast ballots this year, compared with 60.6 percent of those eligible in 2004, according to a voting analysis by American University political scientist Curtis Gans, an authority on voter turnout.
He estimated that between 126.5 million and 128.5 million eligible voters cast ballots this year, versus 122.3 million four years ago. Gans said the gross number of ballots cast in 2008 was the highest ever, even though the percentage was not substantially different from 2004, because there were about 6.5 million more people registered to vote this time around.
The historic candidacy of President-elect Barack Obama, as well as the emphasis his campaign put on early voting and Election Day turnout, led many media and academic pundits to speculate that voter turnout this year would increase dramatically. In the run-up to the vote, even John McCain’s top pollster, Bill McInturff, joined other experts in predicting that turnout might surpass 130 million.
I wrote about this on Wednesday, when MS-NBC tried to argue that a 20-million vote deficit between the predictions and the total counted to that point would get erased by the West Coast, even though most of those votes had already been counted. Five days after the election, we still have yet to surpass 123 million votes, and nationwide 99% of all precincts have been counted. Only Washington and Oregon have any significant number of precincts still out (8% and 3%). At worst, that might represent 400,000 uncounted ballots at this stage.
Let’s add the 400,000 to the current vote totals. That would make the vote total 123,176,039 votes cast for the presidential race — far below the estimates given by so-called experts even today. With over 121 million votes cast in 2004 and over six million new voters registered in the last four years, that’s a rather disappointing conclusion to the longest presidential race in American history. That would mean that only a third of new voters bothered to cast ballots, or that a lot of previous voters withdrew from the process this time.
So what happened? Obama got six million more votes than John Kerry and John McCain got slighly under five million less than George Bush. Given the efforts at new registrations, it looks like Democrats turned out well, while a significant chunk of Republicans stayed home. Democratic GOTV efforts worked better than in 2004, but it didn’t produce a landslide. Republican GOTV efforts had been in full swing, but in the end, the ticket simply didn’t produce the excitement needed to carry the GOP to victory.
This doesn’t delegitimize the victory that Barack Obama won on Tuesday, but it does help demythologize it. Obama didn’t inspire any boost in participation in the election process throughout the entire population. The nominal gain seen will probably show as a slight decline in percentage participation among elegible voters from 2004, once the dust settles.
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Republicans were demoralized at having to choose between two Democrats.
beatcanvas on November 9, 2008 at 11:14 AM
Don’t let facts and figures get in the way of the DNC propaganda machine of the MSM.
jukin on November 9, 2008 at 11:15 AM
Well, there it is. Demythologize indeed…
eanax on November 9, 2008 at 11:17 AM
Wait Wait Wait I thought this was the biggest voter turnout election ever. Well that’s what the msm told us. They didn’t lie to us did they? They wouldn’t have any reason to do that to us would they?
/sarc
Brat4life on November 9, 2008 at 11:19 AM
voter (registration) fraud question: if a college student registers to vote in their home town in State A, then registers to vote in State B, what prevents this student from registering twice and voting twice?
ocbrat on November 9, 2008 at 11:19 AM
Well if a significant number of GOP’s stayed home then I hope they are prepared for the possible future they helped create.
jeanie on November 9, 2008 at 11:20 AM
One more thing you asked where they got the numbers from. Just follow the sensation up Chris Matthew’s leg.
Brat4life on November 9, 2008 at 11:21 AM
Being a “maverick” really paid off for you, didn’t it, Johnny Mac? Poke those conservatives in the eye year after year, and then take their votes, GOTV efforts and money for granted was a great strategy, too?
Sad thing is, you’re not the only one who will lose because of your decisions. We’re still paying for the sins of the Carter adminstration’s bending over and taking it from Iran. Even in four years a Dem can do a lot of damage.
Wethal on November 9, 2008 at 11:23 AM
The GOP GOTV efforts for years has been a joke. Again this whole post proves that it wasnt conservatism that was the problem it was the GOP’s election efforts.
We can easily win back the Congress in 2010 IF we get someone with a tiny bit of brains in the RNC.
If the GOP can fix its GOTV efforts we will win. The dems cant keep their people fired up forever the young will start to vote less and minorities wont care as much in the 2010 election.
There is a window of opportunity for the GOP but it really needs to get off its butt for a change rather than depending on silly robocalls and useless email efforts.
William Amos on November 9, 2008 at 11:24 AM
Actually, California does still have about 2.7 million unprocessed ballots.
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/c-status08/total_unprocessed_ballots08.pdf
DaveO on November 9, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Record turnout lie is the icing on the cake. Buckle your seat belts, folks, we’re in for a scary ride. I see great “hope and change” coming in the next midterm elections. Work your asses off and pay attention to the smallest of details. Record those details and be ready to speak out at any opportunity. The next time conservatives regain power, and we will, get even more vigilant and demand they stick to our principles.
dragonash on November 9, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Boring candidates rarely win. Last ones I can think of are Bush 41 and Nixon
lodge on November 9, 2008 at 11:29 AM
We need new leadership in the House and Senate re-election efforts, too. The worse it gets, the harder it is to recruit and to raise funds. The GOP needs to be working on its farm team on the state level, so it has competitive federal candidates.
Wethal on November 9, 2008 at 11:32 AM
And its getting worse here in Ohio
Jennifer Brunner is putting together a “Non Partisan” group to change Ohio’s election laws.
The people she is putting in charge of this effort is The Brenner Center for Justice
Best known for its defense of Gitmo Terrorists.
William Amos on November 9, 2008 at 11:35 AM
IMHO what doomed McCain and got Obambi elected was two fold:
1) The fraudulent registration efforts by ACORN (a supposed non-partisan entity)
2) An in-the-tank media that heavily inflated polls to discourage Republican turnout.
In regard to number two above I tried in the last two months of the general election to get everyone within my sphere to ignore the polls and be sure they voted regardless of what the polls were showing. It was obvious to all of us here at HA the media was hyping the polls in favor of Obama in order to suppress Republican turnout or to even sway votes in Obama’s favor, unfortunately it worked.
I must say I have lost confidence and faith in about half of my fellow Americans judgement, I had refused to believe that half of our nation could be that ignorant and shallow, man was I wrong!
I guess I was hoping beyond hope that most Americans would see right through the empty suit that is Obama, instead they elected a man to the most powerful position on earth based on flash and not substance or character, the only thing I can think of is the people that voted for Obama must have thought they were casting a vote for the next American Idol!
In a couple of years the other half of the USA that voted for this unknown empty suit will live to regret it big time, their chickens will be coming home to roost soon!Unfortunately those that didn’t vote for Obama will also have to deal with those chickens that come home to roost!
Liberty or Death on November 9, 2008 at 11:36 AM
We can still vote for the next American Idol Right? :0 we did that already.
Dr Evil on November 9, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Where did it go?
Conservatives stayed home in a fit of self pity.
Limerick on November 9, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Racist! How dare you attempt to suppress voters. Expect the federal DoJ to investigate you, and to have your personal life made public.
I did see an excellent get out the vote ground campaign by the Dear Leader’s side here in Toledo. I think a lot of Republicans/independents just decided to stay home last Tuesday. A high quality candidate with a positive message could get them back to the polls.
rbj on November 9, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Republicans were demoralized at having to choose between two Democrats.
beatcanvas on November 9, 2008 at 11:14 AM
Well said! We lost this in the primaries!
DCJeff on November 9, 2008 at 11:45 AM
.
Win 2010 and do what? I watched a little of Meet The Press this morning. Mel Martinez was the GOP guest. About 80% of what he said was in agreement with what the Dem guest said. He said he is for govt health care, for another stimulus pkg, for more bailouts.
The truth is, McCain represents mainstream Republican thinking today. This country no longer has a center right party and a center left party. It has a far left party and a slightly less far left party.
angryed on November 9, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Fatalism vs self determination.
Fatalism won
Limerick on November 9, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Ed,
There was a mistake in how turnout was calculated — they forgot to add in the dead voters. Absentee ballots are still trickling in from Hades, so the final numbers are not in yet.
/sarc
Y-not on November 9, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Indeed.
JeffinOrlando on November 9, 2008 at 11:50 AM
To the end my neighbor refused to vote. He disliked Obama and despised McCain. He believed the public was being used like a bunch of donkies
There is a point, especially when primaries are blatantly manipulated that trust disappears
It is one thing to vote for the lesser of two evils
When there are too many lies and tricks there is no way to understand what is the lesser evil, because a liar can pretend to be anything
I see no evidence the lesson has been learned. I may need medication to handle the avalanche of lies soon to come from elites on all sides
People will swallow a lot of unpleasnt things, but there is a point where they will not bow down to those who are treating them like stupid pawns.
entagor on November 9, 2008 at 11:52 AM
perhaps the media trumped up the turnout to go along with their own narrative and depress Republican turnout. My Mom called me at about 1pm last Tues saying it doesn’t look good. Based on what? In her mind the voter turnout being reported and the long lines shown on TV
ldbgcoleman on November 9, 2008 at 11:54 AM
I was surprised to hear a lot here in San Louis Obispo stayed home! They best not complain either. Where were their lazy buns when they should have gone to the polls? They just threw the towel in. What has happened to people? Makes me sick.
sheebe on November 9, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Yep. It is easy and fun to blame the donks, ACORN, the messiah cult frenzy, etc. The harsh truth is that stay at home or write in GOP voters who didn’t find McCain exciting enough, or completely in agreement with their views on all things, bear the burden. They’ll have a long wait for their version of a perfect candidate who can also win presidential elections.
a capella on November 9, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Unfortunately for us THEY already voted in an American Idol as POTUS…God help us all!
Liberty or Death on November 9, 2008 at 11:55 AM
Voting for none of the above is never a good choice. Obama is like a box of Cracker Jacks…we don’t know what the surprise inside is going to be.
mindhacker on November 9, 2008 at 11:59 AM
It doesn’t take genius/Rove to figure out that when the numbers hyped were shown time and time again – with a photo of Obama handing out manna in cities like St. Louis and Philadelphia – that the vote on right would be flattened by the hyperbole.
I hope this helps.
Shivas Irons on November 9, 2008 at 11:59 AM
BTW, I warned people of this two years ago, a vitory for Barack HUSSEIN Obama (PBUH) would be a victory for the Jihadis; even the NYT now agrees….http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/08/world/middleeast/08jihadi.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rssamazing….
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 12:05 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/08/world/middleeast/08jihadi.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 12:06 PM
In the end of the day, the banking crisis wiped out the momentum built during August w/ “Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay Less.”
Couple it with an electorate who wanted to “fire” Washington, and were allowed to believe that Barack represented the change they were looking for, and the American people unknowingly support a bloodless coup d’etat.
Oh how I can remember the regret I felt the two weeks following the ‘92 election when I realized that Clinton (the “Man from Hope”) didn’t represent a new Washington but a return of the misery and malaise of Carter when I was in grade school.
phreshone on November 9, 2008 at 12:08 PM
Bwahaha, ACORN stole the historic vote from Obama!
Dusty on November 9, 2008 at 12:10 PM
So, would these non-voting GOP’s have ANY reasonable complaint to be voiced about anything that happens to them under an Obama administration?
I, personally, can’t think of any.
Yoop on November 9, 2008 at 12:12 PM
Couldn’t you interpret it as approx 5 million people who voted Republican in 2004 voted Democrat in 2008 with about 1 million new voters (voting Democrat or roughly the Obamaddition)?
Skywise on November 9, 2008 at 12:13 PM
Considering that a large majority of the media actively campaigned for Obama, the unknown fradulent votes for Obama, and the large illegal contributions to Obama’s campaign; Republicans did OK with the lead on the ticket a nominal Democrat.
Obama only won with 52/53% of the popular vote. Not a mandate by any stretch.
Ragnarok on November 9, 2008 at 12:14 PM
I believe it’s an error in thinking to call all of the votes for Bush in ‘04 “our Republican voters” and then assume that they didn’t show up for McCain (independents). How many of Bush’s 04 voters flipped over to Obama this time?
I live in MS but went down to FL for GOTV deployment. The level of GOTV enthusiasm was markedly off this year as compared to 04. Lack of volunteers, especially on election day. I can’t blame my fellow GOPers too much. Maybe they were more cognizant than I of what a waste of time it would be to travel to a battleground state and use vacation time to support a turd like McCain. Yes, I’m very bitter about spending my vacation time and money on a campaign more interested in tearing down the running mate than the opponent. Should have seen it ahead of time. F U GOP! Go Sarah!
burnitup on November 9, 2008 at 12:14 PM
The excitement for Palin could not overcome all the disgust at a RINO like McCain. The Republic dies with a whimper not bang.
bill30097 on November 9, 2008 at 12:15 PM
Peggy Noonan, Fell off the wagon.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122600597583706149.html
Dr Evil on November 9, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Here, you made an attempt to demythologize it. I do not think that is what the Chicago Tribune is doing by scrubbing the transcript of Obama’s victory speech.
“It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled — Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.”
If you go to the video you will notice a phrase is missing.
“Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been just a collection of individuals or a collection of red states and blue states. ”
Why would they do such a thing?
CantThinkofOne on November 9, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Repeating an earlier post
Hey guys: stop whining and get on the job
This, and hundreds of other blogosphere articles are celebrating the obvious – I mean, what? you actually thought he’d behave decently once elected? duh, he’s a true fascist and his only real policy is himself.
Know what the real job is? 2010. Take back Congress.
Or, even better: recognize that this guy wasn’t elected this time either. Look at the voting line-ups in Ohio (and Florida and around DC) as reported on election day – and then look at the poll by poll counts. Where did the votes go? Ohio has half a million (twice the messiah’s margin) missing Republican votes – and the lineups and heavy advance voting says most of those people did vote.
I know he seems beyond the law right now- but if you don’t act you’ll have show trials for Republicans next year and President Obama in office in 2018. So do something now or stop whining, because at least in Ohio,Florida, and the DC area I think McCain Palin almost certainly won on votes cast, but lost on votes counted.
Paul Murphy on November 9, 2008 at 12:19 PM
http://sarah-palin-2008.blogspot.com/2008/11/long-knives-are-out-and-fight-will-be.html
Sarah Palin loaded for Bear.
Dr Evil on November 9, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Republicans who stayed home make my stomach turn. They’re idiots who think they sent a message by helping elected the most leftwing president ever.
I hope they feel good about themselves over the next four years.
Bilby on November 9, 2008 at 12:19 PM
Tom Brokaw says these are the worst days for a president since he’s been alive…What the hell is he talking about?
tomas on November 9, 2008 at 12:21 PM
And I think I see some of them already chiming in. They’ll brag about how they could just never vote for a RINO, no matter what!
They blame the election of Obama on the fact McCain wasn’t the perfect Republican, not on their sorry, illogical bluster about not voting for “RINOs”
Bilby on November 9, 2008 at 12:24 PM
NRO Corner.
Wethal on November 9, 2008 at 12:25 PM
So, would these non-voting GOP’s have ANY reasonable complaint to be voiced about anything that happens to them under an Obama administration?
I, personally, can’t think of any.
Yoop on November 9, 2008 at 12:12 PM
I did my part!
I identified The One, the New Messiah, Barack HUSSEIN Obama (PBUH) as an unimaginable threat to this country 3 years ago!
I was one of the very first, if not the very first to point out on Blogs, the Racist, Anti-American/Afro-centric nature of his so-called “Church” in Chicago.
I was the very first one to identify him as a closet Muslim, practicing “Taqiyah”.
I persuaded my brother, my sister in law, her sister, and her husband, ALL Lifelong Democrats, to vote for John McCain!
I spent weeks, crafting an email, that linked to over 50 sources online, including major stories by the Chicago Tribune and the NYT, outling Obama’s radical past, his Anti-Americanism, his Marxist Roots, his Communist Mentor, his enrollment in his Indonesial Grade School as a “Muslim”; his radical ties to Ayers, Khalidi, Rezko, Alimoudi, etc.
I sent it out to over 50 people I know, and asked them to send it out to as many people as they knew, and so on.
I received Feedback that at least a Dozen people changed their intended votes from Obama to McCain, as a result.
I did my part!
I am not responsible for the F&%king that this Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi/Anti-Semitic/Anti-White Racist Marxist-Muslim is about to put on this country.
And shame on anyone who voted for this POS! The resultant chaos and destruction of this country is on your hands, not mine!
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 12:25 PM
Confusion, apathy, lack of purpose, bad decisions, poor management, no vision and no passion are what beat McCain . . . not larger numbers of voters.
rplat on November 9, 2008 at 12:27 PM
The economy. And he’s part of the effort to try and lower expectations for Obama, so the Obama-supporting idiots aren’t so disappointed and disillusioned when their Sugar-Daddy-in-Chief can’t deliver all the goodies he promised them.
AZCoyote on November 9, 2008 at 12:33 PM
Does anyone remember the Carol Burnett Skit where everyone said “Oh That English accent”…the guy got everything he wanted because they liked the sound of his voice and he was handsome.
I’m glad we aren’t shallow on here.
Obama is the Lee Harvey of US Democracy.
tomas on November 9, 2008 at 12:34 PM
I would like to officially thank all the Conservatives that stayed home on election night.
May you heartily enjoy what is about to come our way.
Non-patriots!
13Girl on November 9, 2008 at 12:36 PM
Word out of Politico
Mitt Romney is not seriously thinking of running for President. His family is against it.
William Amos on November 9, 2008 at 12:40 PM
If conservatives/independents stayed home because of McCain then they deserver every freaking thing they get. This is the same b/s that happen with Bob Dole. I’m not a big fan of McCain, but look at this arrogant self-center prick we have now. like Wethal on November 9, 2008 at 11:23 AM said, in four years any spineless liberal Dem can do a lot of damage.
Think about that Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado the next time you pay your damn bills!
try again later on November 9, 2008 at 12:40 PM
Smell the Change ™
Mason on November 9, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Why did conservatives stay at home, the same reason I voted for Nader in 2004. You can’t win on a negative agenda, you have to have something to vote FOR. The GOP since 2006 has been running on a negative agenda. “Don’t vote for the liberals.” But they never said “and here’s why.” In part because the GOP has totally delegitimized the conservative agenda. Look what teh Dems did. Kerry made liberalism look ridiculous. Obama ran a campaign much more like Nader ran in 2000 and 2004. The Dems got an AUTHENTIC liberal to run, vs. a faux liberal. You need authentic conservatives vs. faux conservatives.
What the American people like is consistency and belief in your convictions. No one beleived Kerry truly cared about poor people. People believe that about Obama even those who voted against him. He got very high marks in polls about believing what he said, something no Dem has gotten in a while and something Bush always got high marks on.
The question is will the GOP allow an authentic conservative to win in 2012. Palin is your best hope on this front, but the party seems split.
DeathToMediaHacks on November 9, 2008 at 12:41 PM
You mean this isn’t a mandate like the MSM is trying to tell us, after all….?
DL13 on November 9, 2008 at 12:42 PM
Using the exit polls and current voter tally numbers from CNN it look like about 6.6 million fewer Republicans voted compared to 2004. It looks like this alone was responsible for Florida and Ohio.
As Ed stated, this takes nothing away from the legitimacy of Obama’s win. But hopefully it will start to kill the myth. There were few historic shifts this election – Obama won for the usual reasons. The economy gave him a large margin among Independents and caused a lot of Republicans to stay home. Youth and minority turnout padded the stats but doesn’t look to have been a deciding factor.
JDScott on November 9, 2008 at 12:42 PM
Last week Lucianne.com had a great cartoon that had the comparison between 2004 and 2008. The first box had Bush won with 51% and the country was “divided”..in 2008, Obama won with 52% and the country is now “united”.
So much for a ‘mandate’.
The only thing Barry’s done that I like so far is say that he’s going to ‘get a mutt’ at a shelter because (he admitted!) he’s a mutt too. Now, thanks to BO, my Obamite bro will go out and get a mutt instead of another (4th) boxer. He must finally
embrace the CHANGE that Obama brought.
Christine on November 9, 2008 at 12:43 PM
They made them up, of course. Just like everything else they said about anything related to this so-called election.
MikeA on November 9, 2008 at 12:47 PM
DeathToMediaHacks on November 9, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Case in point. A bunch of meaningless blather to justify voting for Obama.
Oh, you don’t agree that you voted for Obama by staying home or voting third party? Deal. Your action helped get Obama elected just as surely if you’d gone into the voting booth and chose him
Spare me the faux principles about needing to vote FOR something. In this election there was something to vote against. You have a responsibility to vote against as much as you do to vote for.
Bilby on November 9, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Prediction: the facts don’t matter.
History books in 20 years will state as fact that Obama won in a landslide due to an unprecedented millions upon millions who came out to vote in the largest turnout in history.
jeff_from_mpls on November 9, 2008 at 12:55 PM
We lost because of the MSM covering for Obama, an easily duped electorate and the left’s insane hatred of George Bush. Period.
Who our candidate turned out to be was secondary, the stars were aligned for a Dem victory.
fogw on November 9, 2008 at 12:55 PM
Nate Silver did an excellent analysis – on average the polls were off by 0.1%
Stop whining.
A Axe on November 9, 2008 at 12:58 PM
The Democrats who turned out voted for Obama and the Republicans who stayed home voted for Obama. That’s what happened.
Bilby on November 9, 2008 at 12:58 PM
I was never for McCain. I promised myself I would never check his name on the ballot. I resolved that by being able to vote a straight Republican ticket. I thought our choice was to vote Socialist or Democrat. My fear of McCain was he would always be “across the aisle” and what Republican congress remained would vote with him out of loyalty. That may be why I suffered no great disappointment that McCain lost but great fear for the country that Obama won. With the numbers coming in, are we really that far out in the wilderness? What we need is a leader and by definition a “maverick” doesn’t lead or he wouldn’t be called a maverick, would he? How could he swing votes away from Obama when he continually promised to work with the democrats? A leader would have retained a lot of the Republican votes and gotten those Republicans that sat at home out of disgust. That would certainly have changed a lot of numbers. Most of his maverick bills came back to haunt him in his run for the presidency.
Oleta on November 9, 2008 at 1:12 PM
McCain is what he is. The people who stayed home, didn’t vote for him on the ballot, or voted third party in effect voted for Obama. It’s THEIR fault. Don’t sit here and try to argue that there’s no difference between Obama and McCain. We’re about to see the difference.
I just hope you people feel good about yourselves for keeping your promise to never check his name on the ballot.
Bilby on November 9, 2008 at 1:15 PM
I also think those that decided to stay home and not vote should be placed in the shame column as well because essentially their not voting or writing in some other candidate was a vote for Obambi.
No candidate is ever going to be perfect and agree with all of the voters in regard to where they stand on the issues, but to not vote for McCain or write in another candidate in order to make a “statement” was foolish and helped elect an unknown empty suit with ties to troubling and dangerous people!
McCain was the lesser of two evils, unfortunately many placed our nations future in jeopardy to make some sort of “statement” and we will all reap what has been sown by the foolish.
*shakes head*
Liberty or Death on November 9, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Not exactly.
A person who wanted McCain to win, but actually voted for Obama, would have twice the effect on the margin of victory as someone who voted for any other candidate, or simply didn’t vote at all. That’s because voting for Obama instead of McCain added a vote to the former and subtracted one from the latter.
Margin_of_Victory = Obama_Votes – McCain_Votes
Difference_in_Obama_Votes = +1
Difference_in_McCain_Votes = -1
1 – (-1) = 2
QVOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDVM.
The Monster on November 9, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Well, Conservatives better keep pounding this message home, because Chris Wallace at FOX was beating the hell out of Pence saying there were huge numbers against us. Of course Wallace never did mention what percent of the total those sugbgroups represented, but that would’ve messed up the narrative of the shrinking/dying conservative movement.
Iblis on November 9, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Aye. The more I think about it the more I think that this might have been the best out come in the end. The last thing we want is to be blamed for Shamnesty and the the crappy global warming shit that both Obama and McCain support. Let the dems get blame for it and let the republicans work on getting back to limited government, lower taxes, and free market alternatives in the best tradition of the founders of this country.
Dritanian on November 9, 2008 at 1:33 PM
My problem is with the measuring standard, of which ‘those eligible to vote’ are those that registered to vote. That is a sub-set of the entire eligible population of adults, so saying that 61% of that sub-set came out to vote misses the vote in context of the entire population that is eligible under the Constitution to exercise their franchise. That number makes this election worse than ‘those eligible to vote’, it brings into question when do you call a representative democracy moribund?
Feeling a warm, fuzzy of 61%?
Now think of the number that would allow a majority of the entire adult population to allow a representative democracy to function. Twice, say, a minimum plurality… set that at 35% vote garnered and put that up to 70% of the adult population required to come out and vote to at least establish a plurality basis for popular government. You can’t even get *that* out of the ‘eligible to vote’ concept. And the number that came out from the entire population: 51%
Sen. Obama got 51% of 51%, or about 25% of all adults voting for him.
That is not even a plurality: no 25% overall support government would dare call itself a plurality government in a representative democracy. The last time we came close, as a nation, to 70% overall turnout was 1964. It has been downhill since then, so that even with the percent of the qualified voters remaining at 66% to 72% overall percentage of those registering to vote have gone down as a percentage of population year on year.
Putting that into persepective, the NSDAP in 1932 garnered 40% of an 88% turnout in a multiparty election. That government could claim a plurality basis for governing and was, indeed, put at the head of government. Worked out so well, that did…
Moribund democracy ruled by a minority elite caste? That has been America for decades. Of course no one wants to address that part of America that is so turned off by modern politics that they don’t see it as worth supporting. And I expect they will soon be in the majority in America, probably next Presidential election cycle, and they are notably immune to payoffs, bribes from government, ‘hope & change’ or anything tried since 1964… in fact the politics since then has turned people *off* consistently.
The modern Left and Right are failing America.
ajacksonian on November 9, 2008 at 1:35 PM
So Oleta, your answer was to not vote for McCain (which was essentially a vote for Obambi) because McCain was a “Maverick” and not a leader and because you feared he would cross the aisle on some or all of the issues?
You have obviously not heard of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs when making your decision! McCain was most definitely the much lesser of two evils when compared to Obambi in regard to the survival of our nation, hence my reference to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs and that survival needs come first.
I for the life of me cannot fathom the poor reasoning and logic of voting for Obambi or or not to voting for McCain (again a no vote was essentially a vote for Obambi) considering it is quite clear Obambi is an unknown, untested, empty suit with very questionable associations at a very precarious time in our nations history!
Regardless of McCain’s propensity to cross the aisle when he thinks it’s in the best interest of our nation McCain was the lesser of two evils and to not vote for him or to vote for Obambi was foolish!
Liberty or Death on November 9, 2008 at 1:36 PM
People who stayed home to not vote for McCain, in essence voted for Obama. You may hate what he has done, but he was the party’s nominee for a good reason. If conservatives are serious about winning again, a serious candidate is needed. Thompson could not campaign. Romney has his entire run for Governor of Massachusetts, in which he was running as someone to the left of John McCain. The adulation is now upon Sarah Palin now, whose introduction was caused by John McCain. Newt Gingrich had to resign as Speaker of the House and never governed from the position he promised to bring America to.
McCain was our chance to win and we blew it.
amazingmets on November 9, 2008 at 1:37 PM
That the number of votes wasn’t much greater than in 2004 suggests to me that ACORN’s bogus registration didn’t translate into many votes. My worry about a level playing field in the 2010 election is how the Dems may try to open the border to illegals more than outright ballot stuffing.
thuja on November 9, 2008 at 1:40 PM
The Monster on November 9, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Any vote not cast for McCain was a vote cast for Obama.
Bilby on November 9, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Actually, Ed, we are at over 124.4 million votes and still counting.
okonkolo on November 9, 2008 at 1:51 PM
A simple “we lost because eight million people voted for Obama” would have sufficed.
Nonfactor on November 9, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Over at http://www.rightwingnuthouse.com; Moran has a reply to Jeff Goldstein, because: “Goldstein disagrees with me that Obama is no socialist…”
This is my reply to Goldstein, via Moran’s Blog:
Could Goldstein plesase supply me with the phone or pager number of his Crack dealer, I’d like to try some of his stuff as well, it obviously makes one delusional!
Let’s just review the FACTS, for a second; Historical, immutable, FACTS:
a) Obama’s Grandfather and Grandmother were at a minimum, Communist Sympathizers
b) Obama’s Grandparents were friends with Frank Marshall Davis, even before they left Kansas
c) Obama’s Grandparents, moved to Washington State on purpose, to put Obama’s Mother, in a High School that had many Communist Party members and sympathizers on the Faculty; and she studied the Communist Manifesto in that same school; remember, this was the 1950′!
d) Obama’s Grandparents and Mother joined a Unitarian Church in that same town, that was known as “The Little Red Church on the Hill”, for obvious reasons..
e) Obama’s Grandparents, then left Washington State, to move unexpectedly to Hawaii, where interestingly enough, family friend and Anti-White Communist Party Member Frank Marshall Davis had gone to, in order to help the Communist Party organize the Dock Workers
f) Meanwhile, Obama’s soon to be Father, Barack Hussein Obama Sr. is an unrepentent diehard Communist, and a Muslim to boot!
g) Obama’s mother and father, meet in RUSSIAN language class, in University in Hawaii; remember now, this was in 1960 during the Cold War! Which means, somewhere, there are FBI files on at least Obama’s Mother, and probably the Grandparents; but those will never see the light of day, will they?
h) when Obama himself was a teenager, his Grandfather, used to take Obama Jr. to meet and talk to Frank Marshall Davis, so Frank Marshall Davis could teach Obama Jr. how to be a “black man”. Obama’s Grandfather and Frank Marshall Davis used to smoke dope during these sessions.
i) Obama’s mother, at a minimum remained a Socialist, and Anti-American, her whole life; she was referred to as a “fellow traveller”; which was code word for “fellow Communist”.
j) according to his own words, his own writing, his own “memoires”; Obama radicalized himself, in college; seeking out the Black Nationalists, the Socialists, the Radicals, etc.
k) Obama was sent to Chicago, by Frank Marshall Davis, who had originally come from Chicago, to become futher indoctrinated.
l) Obama was almost immediately hooked up with the corrupt Daley Chicago Machine, the Black Nationalist/Anti-American/Anti-White Nation of Islam Machine under Louis Farrakhan, the radical Socialists and Anti-Americans who comprise the Saul Alinksy front in Chicago (also an Anti-American Communist), such as the Gamaliel Foundation, etc.
m) Obama’s Political Career is jumpstarted by self-admitted Communists and Anti-American Domestic Terrorists, William Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn.
n) Obama joins the Trinity “Church” under the so-called “Reverand” Jerimiah Wright, a proponent of Black Liberation Theology, which is itself a Marxist ideology!
ad nauseum….
So, let’s recap quickly; ALL of the above points are FACTS! The source for most, if not all those Facts, are none other than in-depth articles in the Chicago Tribune, and the New York Times; from back in 2007, when those two Newspapers were on the Hillary Bandwagon, and they were still interested in doing semi-respecable journalism.
After Hillary lost the nomination, and Obama was crowned the new Messiah by the Media, those in-depth Articles for some reason, disappeared from the websites of the Chicago Tribune and the NYT; I however, still HAVE the originals!
So, I again ask the question of Goldstein; seeing how Obama was raised since BIRTH, around generations of Anti-American/Communists/Marxists/Socialists & Racists; what makes you think that he, himself, Obama, is NOT any of those things, and we’re not even factoring in his wife, who is also Blatantly Anti-American, Anti-White, and a Racist!
GET A CLUE!
For 8 years, I’ve had to listen to Leftist Moonbats in this country, demonize President Bush, and accuse him of all manner of things, because according to some book, written by a moonbat, his Great-Grandfather was at a business meeting back in the 1930’s with some guy who later said he’d like to pull off a Coup d’Etat against FDR when he was President.
That, along with some mysterious meeting of Oil company honchos in the 1920’s, and the fact that Bush’s father did Oil business with a member of Bin Laden’s family in the 1970’s, all PROVED that Bush was some Rightwing Oil-Baron/Anti-US Constitution Manchurian Candidate, put in power to steal our civil liberties, overthrow the constitution, and run the country thru an Oilogarchy, or something like that…
Okay….fine!
I admit, it’s all true! And since I just admitted that’s all true about Bush, that immediately validates everything about Obama from the other side, as well!
And now, we have a PROVEN Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi/Anti-Semitic/Anti-White Racist Marxist Muslim as President-Elect, and I will show him the same respect, the same deference, I will cut him the same slack, and give him the same support and same leeway, as the Leftwing Moonbats have given President Bush for the past 8 years!
How’s that grab ya?
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 1:53 PM
Eight million more, actually.
Nonfactor on November 9, 2008 at 1:53 PM
I actually feel bad for you.
Nonfactor on November 9, 2008 at 1:54 PM
I certainly agree with your result that the Left and Right are failing America. I would argue that the problem is the Democrats and Republicans have both been taken over by extreme political cults that have values far from the average citizens.
However, your analysis that lower voter participation delegitimises our elections is utterly wrong. Political scientist haven’t found any evidence that non-voters would vote in significantly differently than the voters. Furthermore, as the population increases in size it makes sense for fewer people as their votes make less and less as different. Since we live in a secular democracy, voting is a rational act not a sacred ritual. As an example of that rationality, I wouldn’t have bothered to vote if I had known I would be line for four hours. (I live in a student neighbourhood.) Let’s not beat up on ourselves for our rational voting behaviour.
You should keep in polling data is small samples of the population like 500 voters and is often quite accurate. I wouldn’t have any problem with replacing presidential elections with a poll of 50,000 randomly selected voters–except that it may further alienate people from the government. It makes some people feel good to vote.
thuja on November 9, 2008 at 1:55 PM
I did the math for you. If you can’t follow it, go ask a grade-school math teacher if you can sit in on a few lessons.
A vote for anyone other than McCain or Obama, or no vote at all, was equivalent to a half vote for Obama.
The Monster on November 9, 2008 at 1:58 PM
I actually feel bad for you.
Nonfactor on November 9, 2008 at 1:54 PM
The typical reply of a typical Anti-American/Pro-Jihadi Delusion Democratic Traitor Leftist Nutbag!
But then again, I expected nothing else.
And, in addition, since everything I stated was FACT, which you cannot refute, you have nothing else to say!
FACT!
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Okay, this has to be a really good joke, right?
Nonfactor on November 9, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Okay, this has to be a really good joke, right?
Nonfactor on November 9, 2008 at 2:00 PM
Only if you’re looking in the mirror?
And if you have ANY links, to FACTS, that will disprove ANYTHING I posted, I’ll be happy to take a look at it!
PS: here’s the link to the pulled Chicago Trib story:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/chi-0703270151mar27,0,14968,full.story
here’s the title, and author:
Barack Obama: Mother not just a girl from Kansas
Stanley Ann Dunham shaped a future senator
By Tim Jones | Tribune national correspondent.
March 27, 2007
MERCER ISLAND, Wash.
good luck finding it!
Here’s some FACTS by the British Press, who did the in-depth reporting that the US press wouldn’t do:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2601914/Frank-Marshall-Davis-alleged-Communist-was-early-influence-on-Barack-Obama.html
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:04 PM
here’s three more for you; about Obama’s Racist, Marxist, Pedeophile “mentor”, courtesy his Grandfather!
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/obamas-communist-mentor/
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/08/why_obamas_red_mentor_is_news.html
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/08/obamas_teenage_mentor_liked_se.html
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Check out the document that PROVES he was a Muslim, despite what he, and his campaign, have been saying for 4 years!
http://www.daylife.com/photo/01u33pL9Ns06D
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:06 PM
Check out who really wrote Obama’s “memoires”:
http://www.cashill.com/natl_general/did_bill_ayers_write_1.htm
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:07 PM
Check out the real story about Obama’s Political Sugar Daddy, William Ayers; a Date Rapist as well:
http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=9E8CD8A7-E90B-4311-8AA9-AEFD014A14B2
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:08 PM
Oh really, only off by 01.%? So why is it then in the last month leading up to the election many polls had Obambi up by 11%?!?!
If it’s whining to point out the MSM was in the tank with Obambi and using their positions in the media to inflate the polls to discourage voter turnout (in particular the repub turnout) well then I’m proud to be a whiner because it’s the truth, the MSM was Obambi’s ministers of propaganda!
Liberty or Death on November 9, 2008 at 2:09 PM
Check out the Marxist Theology known as “Black Liberation Theology”, that Obama practiced for 20 years with Reverend Wright:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/05/obama_black_liberation_theolog.html
PS: I’m still waiting for your links, that disprove any of this??
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:09 PM
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NTM4ZmU1NGFkODJlMjhmYjkxMjg4Y2Q0NTVlYjAzMmY=
Let’s take a look at the Anti-American Radicals that started his political career, shall we?
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:11 PM
his indoctrination into the Anti-American/Communist Community Organzing tactics of Saul Alinksy:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_alinskys_rule.html
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:12 PM
How about the story from the NYT where the “non-Muslim” Obama, claims the Muslim call to Prayer is the “most beautiful sound in the world”!
Hmmmmmmmmmmm!
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/03/06/opinion/06kristof.html
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:13 PM
Liberty, last time I checked, McCain was running as a Republican and if I voted a straight republican ticket, I did not put a check by his name, but I did, in fact, register a vote FOR McCain.
Oleta on November 9, 2008 at 2:13 PM
How about Obama’s violation of US Law, when he travelled to Kenya, to campaign for his cousin, who says he will implement Sharia, in Kenyan, when he takes over?
http://africanpress.wordpress.com/2008/08/10/senator-barack-obama-in-kenya-obama-and-odinga-the-true-story/
Dale in Atlanta on November 9, 2008 at 2:14 PM
Bingo! We have a winner.
Sapwolf on November 9, 2008 at 2:19 PM
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