From HEDGEHOGREPORT…. a guy who had been hyping the chances of mac taking PA spills the beans

***WHY MCCAIN LOST PENNSYLVANIA (not good) ***

From MDefl @ hedgehogreport:

“OK, so here it goes. By way of background, as most people know, my best friend who shall remain annonymous works for the Philadelphia Dem party and is very high up. He used to work directly for Rendell and still has interaction with him. During the John Street reign of terror as mayor, he was pretty much exiled. Now he is back in favor and is doing some things for the current mayor Michael Nutter. In the primaries, he held firm with his prediction that HRC would win by 9 to 11 even when the fawning press was claiming that the lead was moe. He was spot on. He also has access to internal polling and I won’t say more because doing so might out him.

Anyway, he pretty much consistently stated that the lead was +4 to +6 for BO but that he would tighten at the end and BO would win by 3. As late as Friday, that is what he said to me. Anyway, we go out to dinner with our wives on Saturday night and we are forbidden to discuss politics. He later tells me that he was dying to tell me some information and at one point hinted that I should go to the restroom with him. I must have been on my 5th beer by then because I don’t remember that.

Anyway, late on Sunday night, he texts me to call him at his office. It is 11:30 PM. I thought someone had died. Instead he tells me that he is changing his prediction to +7 for BO with some possible upside. I laugh and say no way. He tells me he is 100% certain of a BO victory by a minimum of +7. I bet him a steak dinner on who will be closer. I ask him what data has led him to the conclusion. He clams up and tells me that he will let me know right after the election. So, we all know that Obama won by 10 points in PA. Now, here are the specific reasons why:

1. Unbelievable turnout in AA wards in Philly. There goal was to knock on 100% of the doors in the minority areas of Philly on election day. Due to a lack of walking around money from the Obama campaign, that did not happen. Still, he estimates that they knocked on 70% of the doors, which is extraordinary. Some of that was blunted by increased voting in NE Philly and some parts of South Philly that are Republican. Obama won 83% of the vote, which is 3% more than Kerry in 04. Not great, but it could still be overcome in theory.

2. The Philly burbs killed McCain. As a matter of fact, my friend had trouble believing the polling coming from Chester and Berks county. These are dark red counties. He personally compiled the numbers twice and had another sample done on Monday so that it was not a Sunday effect. The Monday results were not as favorable but McCain was still running behind Bush by an average of 10% in the surrounding and second tier burbs. It was 15% in the Sunday sample. The 10% number is what became reality. It is hard to believe that Mac could underperform by those amounts. In effect, PA was finished not matter what happened anywhere else.

They did a poll on Monday afternoon to try and figure out what was going on and why people were breaking so hard for Obama. Here is what they came up with:

1. The Wright ad completely backfired and undecideds, especially white women broke heavy for Obama.

2. Palin, as it turns out was not popular in the burbs. Even voters who identified themselves as Republicans viewed her in a negative way and with Wright, this was also a main reason why the undecideds broke for Obama.

Don’t shoot the messenger. I really like Palin but apparently many people in my region do not.

My friend offered some analysis. He said, in the end, that the Republican party, as constructed today, no longer speaks to the suburban Philly people. They are moderates who tend to be pro choice and have no issue with gay marriage. While they are fiscally conservative, they were intensley put off by the Wright ads. That was also true in Allegheny County where McCain lost by 9 or 10 more than Bush in 04. From his source in Pittsburgh, it was the same issue. Wright and Palin. He does not even understand that since he thought R’s would be more conservative in SW PA. Also the coal issue did not resonate at all, even in counties like Luzerne and Lackawanna. Obama won those by margins much greater than Kerry. Mac did well in several very small counties but it did not matter. Bush lost PA by 3.5%, McCain by 10%.

My opinion is that the philly burbs will remain dark blue as long as the R’s who live here believe the national party is extreme. They currently believe that even though I think that is not reality. So Rush and Sean can say whatever they want about conservative ideals but I can promise you that it will not play to this crowd. I already know that they are easily led by the msm and I have consistently stated that the suburban philly Republicans were going to be a big problem for McCain. I never realized that the problem would be this extreme.

Also, the Dems obviously listed Bush as a major reason for voting for Obama but the late undecided voters hardly mentioned him at all. Obama won the majority of these voters which is a stupendous achievment and turns some cardinal rules of politics upside down.

Also, and this breaks my heart, Centre County, the home of Penn State, went blue. For a college town, it was always on the conservative side. It looks like that is no longer the case.

If the GOP is going to rebuild a coalition that includes Pennsylvania, they are going to have to develop a communication strategy and list of ideals that will appeal the the suburban philly voter.

Oh and 1 more thing on PA. Rendell’s whole, “I am disappointed in the turnout in Philly” was a classic head fake. He wants to run for Senator in 2010 and take Specters job, which would be ironic since he used to work for him when Specter was the DA of Philly. He would like for Specter to retire but will run against him if he won’t.”

:( sigh……. so it WAS close until the end. dangit!

battleoflepanto1571 on November 6, 2008 at 1:02 AM

http://www.hedgehogreport.com/?comments_popup=8812#comment-391418

battleoflepanto1571 on November 6, 2008 at 1:02 AM

I am sick to my stomach for saying this now, but Obama was 100% right. How COULD we elect a woman this dumb to be 1 heartbeat away from becoming president. That is truly scary.

muyoso on November 6, 2008 at 12:49 AM

i know, just like picking a guy who has done NOTHING in his life but cheat his way to the top (handwriting anaylses to get names off ballots, mistresses in martinique)

blech!!!

battleoflepanto1571 on November 6, 2008 at 1:03 AM