The blue map

posted at 4:18 pm on November 6, 2008 by Allahpundit

From the Times, an interactive snapshot of voter trends county by county. Blue means the district went more Democratic than it did in 2004, not that Obama won it; for a breakdown on that, choose “County leaders” at the link (or, better yet, “County bubbles” to weight each district by population). Aside from Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and a few scattered blotches in the south, the trend was universal. Discounting McCain’s home state, I spy exactly two counties west of Texas that went heavier for Maverick than they did for Bush. Worse still, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada have trended increasingly blue for two straight elections now. Maybe that’s just a function of the candidates each cycle (each state is comparatively redder now than it was in 1996 when Clinton crushed Dole), with the lesson here being not to get your hopes up when you’re running against a guy with $650 million to spend, especially when you’re saddled with a president whose approval rating is in the 20s. But when you can drive coast to coast and never enter a district where the GOP picked up votes, it seems … noteworthy.

If that’s not depressing enough for you, see Greg Mankiw’s chart of youth voters. Ruffini claims they were worth 72 electoral votes to The One this time around and five percent to Democratic House candidates. How to turn that around will be at the top of the agenda at the powwows among conservative leaders going on now and in the coming months. If you think going to back to Reaganite basics is the key, fair enough, but aside from social security and abortion, it’ll take an awful lot of persuading.


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He rocks.

Marine_Bio on November 6, 2008 at 5:26 PM

He does indeedy. Funny thing is, all people who oppose him do so because he does his JOB that we elected him for and does it WELL. Sad that we’ve degraded into a society where you’re more likely to LOSE your job in government from doing it right.

I’m this close to building the damn fence on my own. With Explosives and Poisonous barbed wire.

baxtrice on November 6, 2008 at 5:27 PM

I’ll start walkin’ your way, and you start walkin’ mine
We’ll meet in the middle, with barbed wire and electric twine

I LOVE sherriff Joe! Can we have him here in Texas?

LoneStarGal on November 6, 2008 at 5:26 PM

You just want our Tent City and our illegals raids. ;)

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on November 6, 2008 at 5:34 PM

One half of all the new US jobs over the last 12 months are in Texas. Actually, slightly more than one half. Texas has more new jobs than all the rest of the US combined. That’s why we have the fastest growing cities–because we have the #1 business climate.

This is good, but a lot of the Californians, northerners, etc, are diluting our politics. I like having new blood and growth, but there’ an insidious downside to it too.

juliesa on November 6, 2008 at 5:04 PM

Juliesa..you are spot on.
I like that our gov is bringing in business from calif.
I think he should take it a step further. I think he should HOLD A PRESS CONFERENCE to say that he will be issuing an invitation to all business in california (ESPECIALL THAT IN SAN FRANSISCO), Nevada and New York. That he will give huge incentives to bring more of those businesses in those SPECIFIC areas. Bring them to TX.
Being that Calif unemployment is higher than our national unemployment..

….you’d see san fran nans teeth fall out.

Handel on November 6, 2008 at 5:36 PM

Conservatism is being relegated to the scrap heap of history by a concerted effort from schools, media and the political left to brainwash the young and other easily-influenced low-knowledge voters of all ages.

The trend of colleges pumping out liberal ideologues and the media maintaining the ‘correct’ memes and stifling opposing ideas and perspectives is going to continue and only grow as a result of Obama’s presidency.

Conservatives have an uphill battle to make a comeback while the masses are hypnotized by the promise of free no-work-required money.

Good old Ben Franklin admonished us about this very thing: “When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.”

He also wrote that, “Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.” That is so very appropriate for the coming years as well.

We can save America. My recommendation is to begin educating people on how the economy really works. We must overcome the propaganda from the left with concerted efforts at education that will reach the masses.

The vast majority of American voters have worse than no clue as to how the economy works. Worse because of the many false beliefs they hold about the economy. A person who really understands what high taxes do to their chances of getting ahead, and where the money comes from to start and grow the businesses that provide jobs is a conservative voter.

Teach them about free markets versus command markets and they will figure the rest out for themselves.

We have to start somewhere.

DrDeano on November 6, 2008 at 5:37 PM

oh and a side note…I dont’ think many califs are coming to tx. I think some are, but not many. Not enough to taint our beloved state.
They’re in small pockets. Let them stay there.

Handel on November 6, 2008 at 5:38 PM

Sad that we’ve degraded into a society where you’re more likely to LOSE your job in government from doing it right.

Grue in the Attic on November 6, 2008 at 5:34 PM

I think thats about a third of the reason there is so much Palin derangement, she does her job well.

One third is sadly because she is female, and attractive at that.

The last third is because she is a conservative Christian.

Adds up to one SCARY woman if you’re a libtard.

Marine_Bio on November 6, 2008 at 5:39 PM

I don’t even have the will to come up with the long list of colorful expetives for this.

Arrogance at its finest.

Marine_Bio on November 6, 2008 at 5:43 PM

expetives

expletives. Ok, time to go home.

Marine_Bio on November 6, 2008 at 5:44 PM

The vast majority of American voters have worse than no clue as to how the economy works. Worse because of the many false beliefs they hold about the economy. A person who really understands what high taxes do to their chances of getting ahead, and where the money comes from to start and grow the businesses that provide jobs is a conservative voter. DrDeano on November 6, 2008 at 5:37 PM

This is particularly important with the youth vote. We need to take a lesson from what worked here and use facebook and the internet to get these points across.

msmveritas on November 6, 2008 at 5:45 PM

Marine_Bio on November 6, 2008 at 5:43 PM

I saw that earlier today, arrogance doesn’t begin to cover that. It’s plain hubris.

baxtrice on November 6, 2008 at 5:47 PM

This is particularly important with the youth vote. We need to take a lesson from what worked here and use facebook and the internet to get these points across.

msmveritas on November 6, 2008 at 5:45 PM

That assumes that the ‘youth vote’ turned out. They didnt from what I understand.
A little more than last election, but yet…were once again, not that much of a factor.
I hate to say it..but it looks like the thing that hurt us..was the candidate himself. And I aint talkin about Palin.

Handel on November 6, 2008 at 5:47 PM

At least you gave the link to the interactive map instead of just saying from the front page of the NYTimes with a link to the front page.

At other places this map was cited as proof that McCain rallied racists to his campaign because the counties where he did better than in 2004 are in the Appalachians. Think Progress “Matt Yglesias) made their own map and implied it was the only one presented at NYT.

Bilby on November 6, 2008 at 5:47 PM

thomasaur on November 6, 2008 at 5:34 PM

My concern with the comment is that the Boomers need to be put out to pasture, which I am not ready for that…

or

…Boomers at room temperature – and I am most certainly not ready at that.

tru2tx on November 6, 2008 at 5:49 PM

…ready for that.

Not at that.

Maybe there should be a pasture in my future.

tru2tx on November 6, 2008 at 5:50 PM

I wish I could see the vote by congressional district. Perhaps if everyone did things like Maine….

Kafir on November 6, 2008 at 5:51 PM

tru2tx,
Nor am I: either option

thomasaur on November 6, 2008 at 5:52 PM

Although I do have to tend my pastures.

thomasaur on November 6, 2008 at 5:56 PM

Wow look at how blue California is.

And yet the said NO to redefining marriage. Map is a joke.

broker1 on November 6, 2008 at 5:57 PM

Colorado and Nevada have been trending blue because of all the folks moving there from CA. The exodus from CA has taken lots of liberals to neighboring states with better economies…

angrywonk on November 6, 2008 at 5:57 PM

Blue means the district went more Democratic than it did in 2004, not that Obama won it

Bias? What bias? There’s no bias in the media. This map represents a shift, not the actual results. Conservatives have a lot of work to do, but let’s be clear about one thing: This map is used purposely to depress Republicans. Don’t think so? Look at the Washington Post’s map of the ACTUAL RESULTS, county by county. Allah, why don’t you post the WaPo map alongside the NYT’s map to let us see the actual results and not the NYT’s bias? It isn’t as blue as you think.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2008 at 5:58 PM

Interesting.. why is Alaska Grey?

It should be a pretty red… guess they forgot about us AGAIN!

losers.

upinak on November 6, 2008 at 5:59 PM

nteresting.. why is Alaska Grey?

It should be a pretty red… guess they forgot about us AGAIN!

nope, you weren’t forgotten. Look at WaPo’s map of the ACTUAL RESULTS, not a biased map of “shifts,” and you’ll see a nice shade of red.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2008 at 6:01 PM

looks like the strong spines in America are along the escape route from the northeast to dallas – I-81 to I-40 to I-30

phreshone on November 6, 2008 at 6:05 PM

Take heart: Barney bit a reporter today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9myqGe_B2vE

Republican on November 6, 2008 at 6:06 PM

Click on the compare to 1996 year and it might shock you, because the map is almost completely Red.

JeffinSac on November 6, 2008 at 6:07 PM

I don’t believe that map for several reasons.

First of all, many people politics are influenced by cycles and the dynamics of the economy and their lifestyle at the time. For example, my sister used to be a Republican for many, many years and she voted for Obama because her house is being foreclosed upon. Once she gets back on her feet I have no doubt, she’ll want to keep her money and she will get back on her feet because she’s doing what a lot of loser Americans are doing, saving their mortgage payments, waiting until they get evicted and buying another house with a co-signer.

Secondly, people this cycle voted AGAINST Bush. Look how badly Jimmy Carter effed everything up and the people still voted in Clinton. People have short memory spans and once they see something shiny (and The One doesn’t send them $1000 a month just being them), they’ll get distracted and start gazing into Paul Ryan’s eyes.

The Average American unfortunatley, isn’t that complicated.

Republigal on November 6, 2008 at 6:08 PM

[quote]conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2008 at 5:58 PM[/quote]

Thanks for that map! I misunderstood the one above (thanks to whomever corrected me).

eforhan on November 6, 2008 at 6:08 PM

(Oh, an addendum, I realize that Reagan was voted in after Carter, but it only took 12 years before people started thinking Jimmy Carter was a saint.)

BUT Republicans are much more clever and typically more charismatic. It won’t take 12 years, trust me.

Republigal on November 6, 2008 at 6:11 PM

but they were voting for Obama on the basis of foreign policy and especially social issues like abortion.

I take this to suggest the the social engineering the left has been doing since the hippie days is working on the youth. Sex, sex, sex, sex, sex. No rules. Raunchy music. Challenges to authority. No rules.

madmonkphotog on November 6, 2008 at 6:11 PM

nope, you weren’t forgotten. Look at WaPo’s map of the ACTUAL RESULTS, not a biased map of “shifts,” and you’ll see a nice shade of red.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2008 at 6:01 PM

NICE.. thanks for that!

upinak on November 6, 2008 at 6:12 PM

The NYT map is a useful tool as it does show the change in voting pattern by county from 2004 to 2008. Of course the blue area became more prevalent. In 2004 red did better though less than great or compelling. Kerry was so incompetent that Bush won.

Note that north of the Mason/Dixon line, on the NYT “trend” chart, only those folks that cling to their guns and religion got redder (I don’t care if it’s a word). Those people are anything but wealthy and would benefit more than most from the coming welfare state. Yes, liberals, if it’s a refundable tax credit, it’s welfare dressed up as reverse taxes.

EconomicNeocon on November 6, 2008 at 6:13 PM

We moved to the Dallas area (and to a quite conservative county) from Michigan this summer. The county we are in was about 72-28% GOP 4 years ago and this year it was 63-37%, a switch of about 20%. If that trend continues (which it probably won’t), it will be Dem controlled in 8 years. [Dallas County, by the way, is now Dem controlled, according to the map.]

All of you from CA, WA, OR and NM, please do come down to Texas. It’s more friendly here than you might think.

jim m on November 6, 2008 at 6:18 PM

That assumes that the ‘youth vote’ turned out. They didnt from what I understand.
A little more than last election, but yet…were once again, not that much of a factor.
I hate to say it..but it looks like the thing that hurt us..was the candidate himself. And I aint talkin about Palin.

Handel on November 6, 2008 at 5:47 PM

I absolutely agree about the candidate but looking forward I think what Rove said about how Obama pulled this off. He went after increasing votes by cutting into Rep voters. He increased turnout in traditionally dem groups. It is notable that conservatives didn’t come out as they would with a more favorable candidate and this candidate was indeed lacking in many respects. That doesn’t mean we can’t make inroads in traditional dem voters in future elections.

In Greg Mankiw’s blog speculating the youth vote cost 72 EV’s he looks at Harvard students and their attitudes about social conservatism. I think this is a point that can be counteracted through an emphasis on free market principles and a clearer message on economics. My daughter is a freshman in an ivy league college, not Harvard, but she noticed that those who voted for McCain had a clear understanding of what Obama’s policies would mean in their lives. Some of these kids were rich and obviously parents had made it clear more taxes meant less disposable income for them to spend at college. Others were well aware that the dems had been behind the whole housing meltdown. One girl was there on an ROTC scholarship and was clearly concerned about Obama as Commander in Chief. Obama’s coolness didn’t outweigh how his policies would affect them personally. I think to succeed we have to take a page from Rove’s autopsy and employ this in the future. We can make inroads in the youth voters. The internet is the best means to do that.

msmveritas on November 6, 2008 at 6:19 PM

Here is a more realistic map.
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
scroll down to the county map.

JellyToast on November 6, 2008 at 6:34 PM

Take heart: Barney bit a reporter today

Palin/Barney 2012 !

The PIT BULL AND THE TERRIER TICKET?

Handel on November 6, 2008 at 6:45 PM

What this tells me is that many Republicans stayed home, of course they were convinced to by the media and polls. Add that to the dem recruits and you get what you got.

The party is not dead or lost in the wilderness.

redhead on November 6, 2008 at 6:47 PM

oh and a side note…I dont’ think many califs are coming to tx. I think some are, but not many. Not enough to taint our beloved state.
They’re in small pockets. Let them stay there.

Handel on November 6, 2008 at 5:38 PM

No need to mince words. Tell us how you really feel.

Guess this “tainted” Californian will just stick to Arizona
as his new home option.

Hawkins1701 on November 6, 2008 at 6:49 PM

“If you think going to back to Reaganite basics is the key, fair enough, but aside from social security and abortion, it’ll take an awful lot of persuading.”

Nothing persuades youth as much as not being able to get a job, sitting in a gas line and listening to the president scold you because you haven’t set the thermostat down far enough. I was a teenager during the Carter years and swore that I would never vote for a Democrat when I turned 18 and I’m proud to say that I’ve never done it.

I bet the Obama presidency will be all the persuading we will need.

michele on November 6, 2008 at 6:54 PM

Here’s an idea: drop gay marriage down a rung or three on the priorities list. Younger voters are now far more in favor of it than older voters, and constant right-wing complaining about the “homosexual agenda” makes Republicans seem like a bunch of haters. Tone it down a bit on that issue.

Another thing: stop acting like a top-notch education and the like are strikes against people. Young people have their futures ahead of them, and still hope to achieve many of the things conservative Republicans have recently started to label as “elitist”. You’re condemning their hopes and dreams, and that’s not a good way to get their votes.

Big S on November 6, 2008 at 4:29 PM

In a way I agree. We need to make a conscious effort to take back schools. We need Republican school board members and conservative teachers all the way up the ladder to universities. Taking back the schools where the agenda is being taught is much more effective than complaining about the agenda itself.

DFCtomm on November 6, 2008 at 6:59 PM

I JUST PLAIN DON’T BELIEVE IT.

bperiwinkle on November 6, 2008 at 7:03 PM

This is particularly important with the youth vote. We need to take a lesson from what worked here and use facebook and the internet to get these points across.

msmveritas on November 6, 2008 at 5:45 PM

That assumes that the ‘youth vote’ turned out. They didnt from what I understand.
A little more than last election, but yet…were once again, not that much of a factor.
I hate to say it..but it looks like the thing that hurt us..was the candidate himself. And I aint talkin about Palin.

Handel

msmveritas – excellent point about using social networks.

Handel – With all due respect, the idea is to capture the hearts and minds of youth and thereby create conservative voters for a lifetime. If we ignore youth by rationalizing that they don’t vote, we are giving those votes away and shooting ourselves in the foot in terms of their future votes.

DrDeano on November 6, 2008 at 7:10 PM

Looking at the map, if you click “Obama’s Counties” there is a lot of gray and a little blue. If you click “McCain’s Counties”, there is a lot of red and little gray. Interesting perspective…

DrDeano on November 6, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Handel – With all due respect, the idea is to capture the hearts and minds of youth and thereby create conservative voters for a lifetime. If we ignore youth by rationalizing that they don’t vote, we are giving those votes away and shooting ourselves in the foot in terms of their future votes.

DrDeano on November 6, 2008 at 7:10 PM

Yes but you have to also be realistic about to whom your brand appeals. The education system indoctrinates the youth into liberalism, and that has to be challenged, but it’s a slow process, and until that changes we have to realize we appeal to adults.

DFCtomm on November 6, 2008 at 7:17 PM

Here’s a map you won’t see in the New York Times or on MSNBC:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2008_General_Election_Results_by_County.PNG

SoulGlo on November 6, 2008 at 7:22 PM

I didn’t read through. But, what is going on in eastern Mass.? A little red there, not that it helped us.

cobrakai99 on November 6, 2008 at 7:37 PM

My parents moved to Nevada 2 years ago. My step-mom voted for Bush in ’04 (when in CA) ’cause she didn’t think it was smart to remove a sitting POTUS during a war. But she went back to her sneaky lefty ways on Tuesday and voted nObama. Fortunately, my dad’s vote cancelled her out! But you can count on the massive migration of Californians who’ll continue to sell their homes and retire to Nevada to keep the trend to blue alive. Sad as that is…

But hey, maybe king HopeyChange will bring us all together and it won’t matter anyhow. sarc/off

Biffstir on November 6, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Demographics do not favor the current Republican Party in the future. Whites will be an ever smaller majority in the next two decades, and yes, the Boomers will gradually phase out.

This is why the current secular- and elitist-bashing is actually so harmful for the party’s future. We can’t afford to make our party any narrower. Believe it or not, there are tons of Democrats who believe in fiscal responsibility and small government, and we need to win them over.

A party without elites is a mob.

haner on November 6, 2008 at 8:22 PM

I didn’t read through. But, what is going on in eastern Mass.? A little red there, not that it helped us.

cobrakai99 on November 6, 2008 at 7:37 PM

A huge chunk of Massachusetts is church-going WASP and might even vote Republican if Republicans would quit bashing them constantly as East Coast liberals/elites. Same with New Hampshire.

Massachusetts has one of the lowest sales taxes in the country (at 5%). Too bad the proposition to get rid of the state income tax didn’t pass on Tuesday.

haner on November 6, 2008 at 8:29 PM

dems don’t need the south anymore…we need a star from one of the majore delegate states.

tomas on November 6, 2008 at 8:49 PM

I would point out that while Utah IS the youngest state in the nation demographically, we are also the most conservative, putting Clinton last place twice. The youth here are not your typical brand, nor are the professors they interact with quite the same liberal brand as the rest of the nation.. especially in Provo/BYU area.

That map is wrong for that reason. If you don’t want to take my word for it… ask Mark Steyn. He mentions us a few times in his demographic talks.

Noelie on November 6, 2008 at 9:35 PM

Its tough to attract the youth vote through 18 years of liberal indoctrination. The good thing about the youth vote is they eventually grow up. We should concentrate on attracting tax paying adults that will educate their youth.

devil dog on November 6, 2008 at 10:19 PM

Two years of Acorn , and Republicans do NOTHING!!
GOOD NEWS, I hear they already started getting votes for 2010 & 2012!

christene on November 6, 2008 at 10:45 PM

Wow, lot’s of bitter clingers in Arkansas and Tennessee – didn’t see that coming (right).

Vernon Hardapple on November 6, 2008 at 11:02 PM

Looks like it’s time to move to Arkansas or Tennessee.

Grafted on November 6, 2008 at 11:06 PM

Don’t forget Oklahoma, Grafted! Every county went for McCain, and we gave him his biggest margin of victory of any state. Republicans also took over both houses of the legislature for the first time since statehood.

As ddrintn noticed on page 2, the Scots-Irish or Ulster Scots belt went more strongly for McCain than for Bush in 2004 — that’s Appalachia, stretching from western Pennsylvania through West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee, and the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas and Oklahoma.

Michael Bates on November 7, 2008 at 1:45 AM

Colorado and Nevada have been trending blue because of all the folks moving there from CA. The exodus from CA has taken lots of liberals to neighboring states with better economies…

angrywonk on November 6, 2008 at 5:57 PM

That’s part of it. Another is also the massive migration of illegals. Nevada’s white non-hispanic population is almost below 50%. Colorado isn’t far off either.

angryed on November 7, 2008 at 8:06 AM

Proud to be a bitter clinger conservative Arkansan !

Mandrake on November 7, 2008 at 2:00 PM

“…with the lesson here being not to get your hopes up when you’re running against a guy with $650 million to spend,…”

Maybe so, but Obammy’s victory was not that overwhelming considering the fact that he outspent McCain threefold, the MSM stood solidly and unabashedly behind him, their deliberately dishonest reporting of the cause of the economic meltdown and turning the other way from numerous occurances of voter and election fraud. Seen from that angle, Obamma was due to media partisanship and a stroke of pure luck. He’s still vulnerable because the vast majority of Americans don’t really know who he is and once the middle class and small business owners get the bill in the mail for having made the mistake of putting this usurper in office and sowing the seeds of their own financial ruin, we’ll see a markedly different attitude among the white middle-class Obama supporters in the coming years. If the Republicans can manage to nominate some Reagan-like figure that everyone in the party can get behind — money will not be a problem; Especially after a few years of an unwelcome Carter economy revisiting the nation.

ruserious on November 7, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Dude, you moderates need to go in a freaking big way. Ross is a moderate. Read his stuff. You might as well have linked to St. Andy.

“The choice of a social conservative like Palin…” Another backhanded attempt at slamming Sarah and promoting your hatred of her.

Yes, the youth of America know how to vote to fix the economy. Yea, what we need is more Arnold’s who jumped the shark and start implementing stuff for the opposition then in the middle of a recession starts talking about a 1 1/5% sales tax increase to pay for over spending instead of curbing spending… oh yea, and let’s add a few new taxes and new spending programs while we’re at it. Great way to help out. Make goods more expensive so more business take off to other states. Young people are freaking idiots.

You think tacking left to the center and sticking there is what we need to do because Reagan is obsolete? Oh, I get now. Politics is all about tailoring your brand to meet what the masses think they want rather than principals. How about this, Allah, how about re-educating them from the HS & College Liberal indoctrination on want WE OFFER and showing them how this is what they need and have them climb on board with that? Sound good to you? Because if the opt for the later after that, I figure it’s just a matter of time when year after year serving 50 hours a year in Pres. Obama’s Youth Groups without pay and taking time away from their online gaming, they’ll eventually change their minds naturally. Socialism has a way of doing that to people who’ve had a taste of freedom.

Sultry Beauty on November 7, 2008 at 4:00 PM

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