Were the polls right?

posted at 11:24 am on November 5, 2008 by Allahpundit

Pretty much, yeah. CNN has the popular vote at 52/46 as I write this but the numbers are still moving; when I run the math from the actual vote totals, it’s 53.0/46.9, for a margin of 6.1 percent. The final RCP spread: 7.6 percent, a figure boosted by a few eleventh-hour double-digit outliers like Gallup and Zogby but otherwise reflective of the conventional wisdom over the last month that had the race steady at six or seven points. Rasmussen and Pew nailed it and Fox, CNN, Hotline, and McClatchy were all off by a single point, well within the margin of error. Nate Silver’s statistical model? 6.1 percent exactly.

As for the key states, here are CNN’s reported margins as of 11 a.m. versus the RCP spreads as of yesterday:

OH: 4/2.5
PA: 11/7.3
VA: 5/4.4
FL: 2/1.8
NC: 1/-0.4
IN: 1/-1.4
IA: 9/15.3
MN: 10/9.8
CO: 7/5.5
NM: 15/7.3

The only two that were called incorrectly were razor thin and were called incorrectly for McCain, and the only one that vastly overestimated Obama’s support was Iowa, where he won by nine points anyway. Oh well.

Exit question via Taegan Goddard: Did The One head-fake Maverick in Pennsylvania? Better exit question from yours truly: Even if he hadn’t, wouldn’t McCain have been forced to make a play for the state anyway to try to make up the difference in electoral votes?


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The polls were wrong. A plurality of Americans intended to vote for McCain, but were scared away by the members of the New Black Panther Party stationed outside of every polling place in America.

Also, ACORN.

YYZ on November 5, 2008 at 12:16 PM

If ACORN and NBP were responsible for a swing of 7 million votes, then damn I want to know their secret.

haner on November 5, 2008 at 12:23 PM

Yes, there’s a chance you’ll win, but the chance you’ll lose is much greater. I don’t know why 80 percent of our readers didn’t see that.

Allahpundit on November 5, 2008 at 11:40 AM

I submit that plenty of us saw it. But collectively we wanted to resist demoralization and buck up our fellows across the country. Arguing on your threads was a tactic, AP. How else are we to fight the voter-suppression tactics of the left? Demoralized people don’t volunteer for phone banks, or knock on doors, etc.

RushBaby on November 5, 2008 at 12:25 PM

Allah, as a newbie, allow me to apologize and congratulaten you on your accuracy. However, let us not forget: There are three kinds of lies: little white lies, bold-faced lies and statistics. They may not be so accurate next time.

ManlyRash, HornetSting, and a bunch of us were trying to will McCain over the finish line. There is nothing worng with that.

By the way, Allah, I saw a lot of “Trolls” and just plain hateful people around here last night. Is that normal or just an election night phenomenom?

Thank you for providing this place to state our opinions.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 12:25 PM

Where’s the poll that asks how many people think Michelle My Belle has a HUGE ass?

dinkyjackson on November 5, 2008 at 11:39 AM

Pretty sure you’re not allowed to ask that.

Was going to write something else here, but I lost the inspiration somewhere between the top and bottom of the thread. Bleh.

*eats*

Grue in the Attic on November 5, 2008 at 12:26 PM

McCain sure turned out to be a lame candidate. I don’t think it has to do with his age, but his vision. He just didn’t bring anything really new to the table.

Also, everyone knew he was for amnesty, so it was hard to get excited.

saiga on November 5, 2008 at 12:27 PM

William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:22 PM

Where have you been since the financial collapse? Mitt would have spoken to it and known what he was talking about. Wall street would have responded to Mitt in a way that no other candidate could have.

Remember, “It’s the economy stupid”? Well, my friend, it’s the economy and McCain NEVER figured it out.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 12:27 PM

congratulaten = congratulate

Still tired. College grad u 8

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 12:27 PM

William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:22 PM

Yeah, and obviously Fred would have been worse. I mean, he might have lost us the election!

Oh, wait…

MadisonConservative on November 5, 2008 at 12:28 PM

As Roger L. Simon wrote… maybe it’s time to move to France since it has a more conservative government and the food is better. Besides Sarandon (& all the others that said they left the country with Bush’s election) probably already left France to move back to the US. :-)

Sergei on November 5, 2008 at 12:28 PM

Stevens leading with about 4,000 votes but there are still 40,000 absentee ballots left to count for the Stevens senate race.

haner on November 5, 2008 at 12:29 PM

Can’t move to France. Hairy armpits on women are gross.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 12:29 PM

Where’s the poll that asks how many people think Michelle My Belle has a HUGE ass?

dinkyjackson on November 5, 2008 at 11:39 AM

Get used to it, it will be “getting around more” for a while. She and Opra will be a pair.

saiga on November 5, 2008 at 12:29 PM

The polls were wrong. A plurality of Americans intended to vote for McCain, but were scared away by the members of the New Black Panther Party stationed outside of every polling place in America.

Also, ACORN.

YYZ on November 5, 2008 at 12:16 PM

The polls were wrong. A plurality of Americans intended to vote for McCain, but were scared away by the members of the New Black Panther Party stationed outside of every polling place in America.

Also, ACORN.

YYZ on November 5, 2008 at 12:16 PM.

No, it was nothing that sophisticated or complex . . . the cause was simply dumb ass parasites that want something for nothing and their liberal enablers. Now we’re all going to pay for this fiasco . . . in so many ways.

rplat on November 5, 2008 at 12:30 PM

Where have you been since the financial collapse? Mitt would have spoken to it and known what he was talking about. Wall street would have responded to Mitt in a way that no other candidate could have.

Remember, “It’s the economy stupid”? Well, my friend, it’s the economy and McCain NEVER figured it out.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 12:27 PM

YEah right a wall street insider with connections to capital investment firms would have gone in front of the DEMSM media and convinced the american people that he got rich on Wall street and that Main street could do the same ?

Mitt was a walking billboard for the very crisis that came up. Not that he was involved but he would have made one very easy target.

William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:30 PM

Thanks for these interesting discussions today. I am enjoying reading them.

Christien on November 5, 2008 at 12:30 PM

By the way, Allah, I saw a lot of “Trolls” and just plain hateful people around here last night. Is that normal or just an election night phenomenom?

Defeat brings out the “wild horde” even in highly disciplined armies. There was definitely some “return of the repressed” last night, but I didn’t scan the monster threads and make a study of its frequency. Actually, for the last couple months of the campaign, the frequency of deranged and repulsively hateful comments was relatively low compared to the normal fare.

CK MacLeod on November 5, 2008 at 12:31 PM

“2010 – get rid of Dingy Harry.
re-take Congress.”

that’s a good battle cry to go along with “’10 comes before ’12!!”

Buckaroo on November 5, 2008 at 12:32 PM

If ACORN and NBP were responsible for a swing of 7 million votes, then damn I want to know their secret.

haner on November 5, 2008 at 12:23 PM

How long has ACORN been padding the rolls? Is ACORN the only group that is involved?

Who supported Early Voting?

Does the total number of votes cast come close to the estimated number of eligible voters?

How many park benches in Ohio voted for Obama?

BobMbx on November 5, 2008 at 12:32 PM

Yesterday will be known from now on as “Black Tuesday”. The day the economic ambition engine burned out. The plundering of the treasury and the public is about to begin.

Kind of hard to get fired up about launching a new American business enterprise when the profits are garnished to fund the exploding population of lazy do-nothing pseudo victims.

Have’nt we tried that before?

saiga on November 5, 2008 at 12:35 PM

“CK MacLeod on November 5, 2008 at 12:31 PM”

it will be interesting to see if the dozens [or how many ever] who showed up on Monday stick around — and if they do if they constructively add to the discourse …

Buckaroo on November 5, 2008 at 12:35 PM

McCain sure turned out to be a lame candidate. I don’t think it has to do with his age, but his vision. He just didn’t bring anything really new to the table.

McCain’s problem is that he is a national security candidate in what turned out to be an election on the economy. When you think of McCain, you don’t think of economics. So he ended up being a bad fit in the general, but a good fit in the primaries.

So who’s responsible for taking national security off the table? GEORGE FRIGGIN’ BUSH! That’s right, by keeping our country free of terrorist attacks over the last 7 years, he gave the country a sense of complacency. And by introducing the Surge strategy, he brought the violence in Iraq down to next to nothing and save hundreds of American lives. Thanks a lot, W.

Indeed, thanks a lot W. I hope history judges you better than your contemporaries.

PackerBronco on November 5, 2008 at 12:36 PM

“BobMbx on November 5, 2008 at 12:32 PM”

um, the thesis [which the figures currently support] is NOT that dead felons voted for duh1, it’s that real Americans DIDN’T vote for John …
:-(

Buckaroo on November 5, 2008 at 12:37 PM

Thanks, CK. I saw Allah have to ban one last night and had a run in with Mr. Rywall earlier in the day. But there are a lot of Great Americans around here. It is a pleasure to finally be able to express myself.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 12:38 PM

“I hope history judges you better than your contemporaries.”

they shall, I believe the Truman model will prove out with him …

Buckaroo on November 5, 2008 at 12:38 PM

Short of Carter-like failures of the Obama administration and beyond, I fear the future of the Republican Party if it doesn’t start courting minorities soon. And we need to win the professionals back too. **** haner on November 5, 2008 at 12:05 PM

My brief thoughts on these issues:
1. I am very concerned about Hispanics becoming a Democratic voting bloc. Democrats had control of Congress from the 30s forward because, in part, Irish, Italian, and Polish Catholics felt excluded from the Republican party, and so joined the Dems. We didn’t start to make serious inroads among those voters until the 1980s. The tone of the immigration debate suggested that a lot of Republicans were motivated by anti-immigrant sentiment rather than by purely national security concerns — and that’s turning off a LOT of people for no good reason.

2. Let me share my perspective on young professional voters, being a 20-something HLS educated lawyer from a battleground state. What made Obama appealing to my demo is the fact that he had a unifying message: “common sense change to put the middle class first.” Every plan, every policy, every idea he communicated tied back to that basic message. He communicated his message clearly and in a sophisticated manner, which made him look very thoughtful and well-organized.

McCain was the complete opposite. His entire campaign was a “fly by the seat of your pants” lesson in improv. He went all over the map and was erratic on the campaign trial. His handling of Palin was atrocious — and, by the way, most people I talk to in my basic demo have accepted the media talking points that Palin is “anti-intellectual” and a fire breathing radical, when in fact she is not. He then had an absolutely asinine response to the financial crisis that, in my view, sealed his fate. A stronger candidate would have run a stronger challenge to Obama, so as a “party future” matter, I’m a little less concerned about this issue than I am about Hispanic outreach.

Outlander on November 5, 2008 at 12:39 PM

Bush also is responsible for Obama winning Virginia. He vastly expanded the government and all those new young government workers, think tank researchers, and junior lobbyists voted for Obama.

rockmom on November 5, 2008 at 12:39 PM

Mitt was a walking billboard for the very crisis that came up. Not that he was involved but he would have made one very easy target.

William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:30 PM

It appears that Obama is vetting Gov Jon Corzine for Treasury Secty (ex CEO Goldman-Sachs). At least Romney was clean and worked to turn around companies that were not doing well.

jerseyman on November 5, 2008 at 12:44 PM

Ah, Newsweek hit piece for today:

NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin’s shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain’s top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent “tens of thousands” more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as “Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast,” and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.

A Palin aide said: “Governor Palin was not directing staffers to put anything on their personal credit cards, and anything that staffers put on their credit cards has been reimbursed, like an expense. Nasty and false accusations following a defeat say more about the person who made them than they do about Governor Palin.”

McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin during the campaign, and aides kept him in the dark about the details of her spending on clothes because they were sure he would be offended. Palin asked to speak along with McCain at his Arizona concession speech Tuesday night, but campaign strategist Steve Schmidt vetoed the request.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167581

haner on November 5, 2008 at 12:44 PM

While we have Allahpundit’s attention…

I’ve said this on a couple of other threads, but there have been a lot of threads, and this is one of the most sane and interesting ones, so I’ll say it again:

If we want to diminish the power of the MSM we need to support sites like Hot Air, and Pajamas (who I’ve been fortunate enough to write for a few times). And all the time, not just at ‘exciting’ times like elections.

If Allahpundit stops doing what he’s been doing, HA loses credibility as a ‘new media’ operation and becomes just another partisan blog (not that Ed is any more partisan – he’s just more optimistic!). Those are ten a penny of course, and what we need more of is serious, balanced media with a conservative perspective. I come here to get fired up, especially recently, but I also come here to get hard news and perspective that’s hard to find elsewhere.

It’s a bit rich of people to complain about MSM bias, then come here and moan at Allah for not talking up a McCain landslide!

Make it interesting, make it fun and you’ll attract independent-minded visitors as well as the choir. And once they’re here you may be able to recruit a few new choirboys!

We have nothing remotely like HA in the UK (in part because Maggie destroyed the left as a political force in the UK, so politics isn’t so polarised) which is partly why I’m here. Also because I believe that as goes America, so goes the world.

I have absolutely loved the last few months here, especially after finally getting registered. I look forward to Ed and Allah’s commentary on the interesting times that lie ahead.

Onwards and upwards!

EnglishMike on November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM

If you look at the vote totals vs 2004, McCain and the Republicans faired much worse, whereas Obama just did a bit better.

holdfast on November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM

McCain’s movement forward was from Palin and Joe the Plumber. If not for them, McCain would have been toast weeks ago.

jerseyman on November 5, 2008 at 12:46 PM

Bush also is responsible for Obama winning Virginia. He vastly expanded the government and all those new young government workers, think tank researchers, and junior lobbyists voted for Obama.

rockmom on November 5, 2008 at 12:39 PM

Bingo, Obama’s campaign still deserves credit for registering them in droves like he did. This was one of the most competent and efficient campaigns I have ever seen.

LevStrauss on November 5, 2008 at 12:48 PM

This is a terrible thread.

AP wants apoplogies for being right by a ‘woe was done to me’ Hillary tear.

Well, here goes….I do apologize to AP for such persistent pessimism before the done deal.

/And you are still not man enough.

Sir Napsalot on November 5, 2008 at 12:49 PM

Funny –

Snerdly just told Rush that Barry’s Aunt could not get in the celebration last night because she did not have 2 forms of I.D.

The time for Elitism is past. It is time to stick together as Conservative Americans from Alaska to Florida and from California to Maine.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 12:50 PM

No offense, but Pennsylvania is retarded.

BadgerHawk on November 5, 2008 at 12:52 PM

Looking at the polls, the subprime crisis did McCain in. His numbers plummeted to pre-convention levels the very day after the financial crisis hit front page news. Obama can brag about his 600 million dollar campaign for all he wants, but the fact remains that he won only because of circumstances that were beyond the control of both candidates. People voted with their wallets, but they’re going to realize just how badly Obama wants those wallets for himself.

Lincoln on November 5, 2008 at 12:53 PM

That’s how it was during the 2006 midterms, too. And that’s how it’ll be two years from now, however well or badly the GOP’s faring at the time. If we’re on pace to pick up 20 House seats, people will predict 100. I don’t understand it.

Allahpundit on November 5, 2008 at 11:36 AM

People allow their partisan fervor to overwhelm their judgment. Any dispassionate, intellectually honest observer has known for weeks that Obama was going to win this election. But when humans really don’t want to see something, they don’t see it, even when it’s right in front of them and calling their name.

The next time a liberal judge issues a ruling unmoored from the constitution’s text, you’ll know how he did it: by using the same methods that some here used to predict a McCain victory (“gut feelings,” wishes, voices, ether, etc).

paul006 on November 5, 2008 at 12:56 PM

Looking at the polls, the subprime crisis did McCain in. His numbers plummeted to pre-convention levels the very day after the financial crisis hit front page news. Obama can brag about his 600 million dollar campaign for all he wants, but the fact remains that he won only because of circumstances that were beyond the control of both candidates. People voted with their wallets, but they’re going to realize just how badly Obama wants those wallets for himself.

Lincoln on November 5, 2008 at 12:53 PM

McCain could have done a few things differently on the economy. Number one was not do the campaign suspension. Or if he did it, then he should go all the way and kill the bailout.

McCain’s self-professed and taped ignorance on economic issues comes back biting him in the ass. Is he a moron?

He could’ve also expanded a little more beyond just earmarks.

The economy was out of his control, but he handled it with a C at best.

haner on November 5, 2008 at 12:58 PM

And we need to win the professionals back too. 5:1 lawyers for Obama, 2:1 doctors for Obama, 2:1 bankers for Obama. I’ve always believed a national party cannot survive without a professional class.

haner on November 5, 2008 at 12:05 PM

And their motivations:

Lawyers: Dems oppose tort reform and promote a culture of blame and victims.

Doctors: The gravy train that will eventually be socialised healthcare.

Bankers: Got rich from the CRA, Fannie, Freddie and the rest. Got bailed out by Dems (with Repbublican help) when things went bad.

I would rather not see the Republicans going after people like that.

EnglishMike on November 5, 2008 at 12:59 PM

Unfortunately, the American public as a whole was not as politically informed or engaged as most of those that frequent this site. Otherwise, we would not have a President that we know so little about.

The fun will begin at his first press conference when he is off teleprompter.

You can’t vote present as POTUS. You actually have to do something.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 1:02 PM

Kind of hard to get fired up about launching a new American business enterprise when the profits are garnished to fund the exploding population of lazy do-nothing pseudo victims.

Have’nt we tried that before?

saiga on November 5, 2008 at 12:35 PM

Time to get very creative about what a business expense is. Remember, it’s not what it is, it’s what you call it.

The only successful socialist state is China, and for one simple reason:

In order to fund a socialist economy, there needs to be a product that can be sold to other countries, something that does not have an inherent high cost, nor a maintenance cost that flucutates with global finance turbulence.

Crude oil is a near-perfect example. But it depends on circumstances not in the control of the socialist government, meaning you can’t really count on it, as Chavez is now learning, and it will eventually run out.

So what makes China succesful? Labor. It’s cheap, reproduces itself at no/low cost, and is available in mass quantities. It will never run out, and if some faction in your product begins to complain, you just put them in jail or kill them. China doesn’t sell TVs. It sells labor.

The natural resources of the US are what made us great. No law ever passed concerning the welfare of a single human being in this country had anything to do with the standard of living, quality of heathcare, availability and quality of education, etc.. that exists here today. It is all based on the trasnformation of resources into goods that can be sold at a profit. It is those profits which pay for our lifestyle and make us the envy of the world.

Our lifestyle was doomed the day we became a net importer of goods.

There are two basic elements which need to be implemented in order to resuce the US from it’s current path to mediocrity:

1. Term Limits. Take away the value of being able to put a politician in your pocket. Fresh meat always tastes better. Experience is not an issue. Involve the populace in self-governance.

2. Exploitation of natural resources. For any economy to grow or even just sustain itself, something of value has to be created and then sold.

BobMbx on November 5, 2008 at 1:02 PM

No offense, but Pennsylvania is retarded.

BadgerHawk on November 5, 2008 at 12:52 PM

My wife, myself and my three voting sons resent that remark.

Try this one, it’s a better fit ……

No offense, but Philadelphia is retarded.

Pennsylvania is a microcosm of the entire country. It has the heavily populated areas to the west and east that are chock full of liberal dunderheads, and the flyover country in-between where the common sense republicans live.

We tried.

fogw on November 5, 2008 at 1:07 PM

The fun will begin at his first press conference when he is off teleprompter.

You can’t vote present as POTUS. You actually have to do something.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 1:02 PM

I’m imagining it will go something like this ……

“Mr. President, David Gregory of NBC News, tell us sir, what makes you so great?”

fogw on November 5, 2008 at 1:10 PM

There are two basic elements which need to be implemented in order to resuce the US from it’s current path to mediocrity:

1. Term Limits. Take away the value of being able to put a politician in your pocket. Fresh meat always tastes better. Experience is not an issue. Involve the populace in self-governance.

2. Exploitation of natural resources. For any economy to grow or even just sustain itself, something of value has to be created and then sold.

BobMbx on November 5, 2008 at 1:02 PM

I don’t disagree with you on this. But wow are you out of sinc with the election that just happened yesterday. Is this a form of denial?

petunia on November 5, 2008 at 1:18 PM

“Mr. President, David Gregory of NBC News, tell us sir, what makes you so great?”

fogw on November 5, 2008 at 1:10 PM

“Why, thank you, David. You can quit bowing and slobbering now.”

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 1:19 PM

The fun will begin at his first press conference when he is off teleprompter.

You can’t vote present as POTUS. You actually have to do something.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 1:02 PM
I’m imagining it will go something like this ……

“Mr. President, David Gregory of NBC News, tell us sir, what makes you so great?”

fogw on November 5, 2008 at 1:10 PM

This could be an very long four years. Sigh.

petunia on November 5, 2008 at 1:20 PM

Petunia –

Keep your chin up, my dear, and your sense of humor.

Just remember, as far as the POTUS elect goes –
“Some people are born great.
Some people achieve greatness.
Others just grate.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 1:24 PM

Doctors: The gravy train that will eventually be socialised healthcare.

Uh, no. There’s nothing doctors hate more than insurance forms and dealing with medicare bureaucrats. Doctors in the US make more than anywhere in the world. The 2:1 doctors support of Obama is a vote against self-interest (as most make more than $150,000 individual). The thing is most doctors become doctors because they are convinced of health coverage for all. In fact, it’s almost a medical school application requirement (free clinic volunteering, etc, etc).

Republican party has a marketing problem. Its ideals are too easily tarnished as selfish. We need to market ourselves more as competent, fiscally responsible and pro-opportunity.

haner on November 5, 2008 at 1:25 PM

Exit question via Taegan Goddard: Did The One head-fake Maverick in Pennsylvania? Better exit question from yours truly: Even if he hadn’t, wouldn’t McCain have been forced to make a play for the state anyway to try to make up the difference in electoral votes?

I think your better exit question is right, as this guy argued a few days ago:
http://www.deanesmay.com/2008/11/04/taltoss-wager/

Can we on the right please put the “the polls must be biased” meme to rest now? I think most of these guys have it figured out pretty well.

JohnW on November 5, 2008 at 1:29 PM

The reason so many people here ridiculed the Obama is leading polls is that they couldnt understand how so many Americans would be taken in by the puffery and the media bias and not see that the emperor had no clothes.

Folks here believed that Americans would wake up and see the light and believed the polls were intentionally misleading us to think Obama had mesmerized the sheeple.

Well he did, and we all here were wrong.

Always Right on November 5, 2008 at 11:55 AM

good point – all of us who were involved and understood Obama’s shortcomings couldn’t understand that joe the voter couldn’t even do a 10 minute google search on obama

surely the polls are joking, this isn’t American Idol with multi text message voting

McCain – never named names, always too bipartisan
had he stood against the bailout in rage, ON PRINCIPAL
a big risk, he would have energized the electorate
He could have won this but he was misguided into thinking he should run an honorable campaign

Obama’s campaign – although tight – had no MESSAGE
the fact that people couldn’t see through his 95% tax cut and other bs – incredible

media in complicity – criminal

the day before the election Obambi is talking about John McCain and giving him the finger (just like HIllary) and the idiots elect this joke

thankfully his “change” will lead to backward blaim, not achievements. He will not be able to unify, his ego will give him a left mandate when that’s not what the country wants

audiotom on November 5, 2008 at 1:35 PM

Rasmussen seemed to be the closest.

Allah, I missed your Gulp today.

just kidding, really. You have been a real sport about the whole thing.

Terrye on November 5, 2008 at 1:36 PM

Indeed, thanks a lot W. I hope history judges you better than your contemporaries.

PackerBronco on November 5, 2008 at 12:36 PM

Add to the blame list Newt Gingrich. It was his House in 1994 that brought fiscal discipline to Clinton’s administration, giving him the first balanced budget in ages. Now Clinton’s party gets to carry that bragging point for the next x# of years. It was that belief what got Hussein the white House.

leftnomore on November 5, 2008 at 2:11 PM

Mitt was a walking billboard for the very crisis that came up. Not that he was involved but he would have made one very easy target.

William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:30 PM

The electorate didn’t care about that stuff. EG: Obama’s associations. They worried about the economy and Mitt would have articulated the soulution very nicely.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 2:12 PM

Right. That’s what I said.

MadisonConservative on November 5, 2008 at 12:19 PM

Yeah. Riiiiiight. You are all over the place….and you have no clue how you want to respond.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 2:14 PM

I submit that plenty of us saw it. But collectively we wanted to resist demoralization and buck up our fellows across the country. Arguing on your threads was a tactic, AP. How else are we to fight the voter-suppression tactics of the left? Demoralized people don’t volunteer for phone banks, or knock on doors, etc.

RushBaby on November 5, 2008 at 12:25 PM

Very true. And led in the effort by Manlyrash.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 2:20 PM

I won’t be crying sour grapes. With a RINO at the helm, what in the hell did we expect?!

I truly hope that Obama doesn’t screw up royally. I have my doubts. He walks the liberal walk & recently talked the centrist talk.
But he used to talk the liberal talk.
We are getting a liberal. A radical, leftist who will do his best to bring about “social justice”.
Fortunately, he is not a real leader. People like his speeches, but he does little to inspire in the trenches, where it’s important.
He will have big troubles getting organized, mark my words.

Remember Democrat Congress’ 100 ‘glorious days’. Yeah. We’re gonna get more of that.
I’ll be tuning out for now. It’s all I can do to just stay in the cattle business. Watch your local meat cases. Do you care where your beef comes from?
Does Obama?

Badger40 on November 5, 2008 at 2:20 PM

Yeah. Riiiiiight. You are all over the place….and you have no clue how you want to respond.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 2:14 PM

Like I said, foaming at the mouth. You set out to destroy a man the same as Obama set out to destroy JTP. The end result was a horrible candidate who lost us the election, and you have no regrets about insulting the looks of the wife of a fantastic conservative candidate that didn’t make it.

Rabid. Demented. Insane. “Destroy” in your language. That’s just what I said what I said. Cue the “bwahahahahaha” as you revert to your old self.

MadisonConservative on November 5, 2008 at 2:23 PM

paul006 on November 5, 2008 at 12:56 PM

There were some folks who were in denial….but most of us were simply keeping a stiff upper lip so as to not depress voter turnout.

And many, including me, were hopeful because it just didn’t square with reasonable thinking that millions of Americans are so ignorant as to vote a socialist into office.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 2:29 PM

holdfast on November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM

Yup. The “shy” Tories just stayed home and sat the dance out. And that fluttering feeling that we would lose only really started for me at the credit crunch mess; McCain’s behavior only made him look a bit crazy.
So yes, the crazy optimism was a bit over the top but who could have lasted the last 3 weeks without a bit of mindless cheerleading? It’s a shame we didn’t manage to enthuse more conservative voters to come out, but I think it’s at least as much to do with huge poll deficits as antipathy to the RINO.

Fortunata on November 5, 2008 at 2:41 PM

MadisonConservative on November 5, 2008 at 2:23 PM

So now you want to talk about foaming at the mouth? Are you sure, because originally the point was that Allah does what he does to keep traffic up. I exposed fred because it was my civic duty to save the country from him. JTP wasn’t running for office you dolt. His private life was not an issue. fred’s history of lobbying for a dictator and against people suffering from asbestos poisoning is all anyone needs to know about him to realize that he is a greedy person who uses the basic tenets of conservatism to hide behind.

The idiots fell for it until I and others educated them. Thankfully fred’s campaign was destroyed by the truth.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 2:43 PM

I stopped commenting when I saw Allapundit getting ripped on day after day, around the time Palin (whom I personally like) was nominated and the cheerleading started – Even though it was obvious she was not qualified for the national stage. Anyone who stated as much was ripped on endlessly.. Not for me.

saus on November 5, 2008 at 2:43 PM

I exposed fred because it was my civic duty to save the country from him.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 2:43 PM

Do you know what delusions of grandeur are, you big hero?

MadisonConservative on November 5, 2008 at 2:49 PM

saus on November 5, 2008 at 2:43 PM

saus, she was picked for strategic reasons, a gamble against what she could bring nationwide against what others could bring in a single state. Her qualifications for the VP slot are better than Obama’s for the top slot, but there’s nothing a bit of character assassination from the MSM couldn’t do to lead people away from looking at those disparities. Mrs Thatcher suffers, and still does, from the caricature that the MSM made of her.

Fortunata on November 5, 2008 at 2:49 PM

*suffered* /sorry

Fortunata on November 5, 2008 at 2:50 PM

The electorate didn’t care about that stuff. EG: Obama’s associations.

csdeven, they should have cared. Fred’s lobbyist-influenced dealings are in no way comparable to that stuff and would have disappeared in the broad strokes of the campaign brush. I can’t believe that intelligent people voted for Obama because of his character, but rather despite it. Pointless now, though.

Fortunata on November 5, 2008 at 3:02 PM

I know guys, but we’re all sailing in the good ship America too, with nutters at the helm. And now look:
Russia Flexes Its Muscles — That Didn’t Take Long

Fortunata on November 5, 2008 at 3:15 PM

sorry wrong thread /sorry sorry

Fortunata on November 5, 2008 at 3:16 PM

I don’t disagree with you on this. But wow are you out of sinc with the election that just happened yesterday. Is this a form of denial?

petunia on November 5, 2008 at 1:18 PM

No. Just applying the “7 Ps” for 2010, 2012, 2014, etc…

*7 Ps = Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance

No point swirling around in yesterdays’ news.

BobMbx on November 5, 2008 at 3:17 PM

Agree with several of the statements here.

If turnout wasn’t huge, and it appears the GOP turnout wasn’t great.

I think Mac’s groundgame wasn’t there; Obama in a lot of places was more organised than Mac.

When McCain adopted the ‘real change’ mantra, I thought that was the wrong thing. Obama had long ago co-opted that mantra and McCain seemed like he was running to catch up when he said that. “Return to our core principles that made America great”, if you want to say ‘change’, things like less pork and more accountability in Congress.

Sarah Palin could have been more of an asset if she hadn’t been kept on a leash. She’s affable, bright and can give really great, earnest interviews when she’s not being pushed about ‘maverick’ and ‘John McCain this and that’.

McCain didn’t capitalise on Wright and the rest of Obama’s shady connections until really late, either. McCain’s support of the bailout while saying he’s against earmarks and then adding a mortgage bailout on top of it really defused his reform message.

He just didn’t run a great campaign, which is one of the things I worried about because of how he was preoccupied with ‘bipartisanship’ for so long, as if that would just take care of everything and people would vote him in because of it.

Anyway, what’s done is done, and the nightmare has begun. God help us.

linlithgow on November 5, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Do you know what delusions of grandeur are, you big hero?

MadisonConservative on November 5, 2008 at 2:49 PM

You fred crackpots are sooooooooo easy to distract.

Bwahahahahahaaa!!!!!

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 3:33 PM

Fortunata on November 5, 2008 at 3:02 PM

It is amazing isn’t it? That many ignorant people in America that actually take the time to vote.

We can’t forget a few things concerning those who voted for Obama.

Blacks: Mostly folks who feel Obama will fix racism, but the vocal ones voted because he was black and no other reason.

The youth: We older folks have been through this stuff before. These kids have no perspective of how the future relates to the past. The impending failure of socialism under Obama will educate these same voters to pay more attention to substantive issues next time.

The independents: I think they didn’t see one iota of difference between McCain and Obama and went with Obama because he wasn’t a republican. And who can blame them? I didn’t see much difference between the two.

Those are the morons who gave him the election. The rest of the people who voted for him are simply immoral people.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 3:40 PM

That many ignorant people in America that actually take the time to vote.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 3:40 PM

Absolutely. It’s not like they disagree with you politically, or had issues with McCain, or have always voted Democrat.

It’s none of that. It’s that all of them are ignorant. You’re such a sharp guy.

MadisonConservative on November 5, 2008 at 3:50 PM

The youth: We older folks have been through this stuff before.

csdeven on November 5, 2008 at 3:40 PM

Yes, get ready for Carter-nomics to the power of 10…and that may be the least of our problems.

labrat on November 5, 2008 at 4:11 PM

There was an idea expressed up-thread that the Republicans need to solve their problem with Hispanic outreach if they are to have a hope at making a recovery from this low point. I agree.

You cannot hope to lose African-Americans by 90%+ and Hispanics by 75%+ (together about 25% of the electorate and growing) and make up the difference elsewhere…it’s just statistically impossible. For example, if Hispanics had gone for McCain in the same numbers that they did for GWB in 2005 the vote totals would have been about 5MM closer (2.5MM less for Obama and 2.5MM greater for McCain). That’s just some quick math figuring that Hispanics are about 12MM or 10% of the electorate and McCain underperformed GWB by 22% in that voting bloc). Working with that as a base, bringing home the disaffected conservatives then becomes enough to swing an election the other way.

I hope we can come to terms with this electoral math soon, before the political realignment that took place in this voting cycle becomes permanent.

HTL on November 5, 2008 at 5:02 PM

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