Were the polls right?
posted at 11:24 am on November 5, 2008 by Allahpundit
Pretty much, yeah. CNN has the popular vote at 52/46 as I write this but the numbers are still moving; when I run the math from the actual vote totals, it’s 53.0/46.9, for a margin of 6.1 percent. The final RCP spread: 7.6 percent, a figure boosted by a few eleventh-hour double-digit outliers like Gallup and Zogby but otherwise reflective of the conventional wisdom over the last month that had the race steady at six or seven points. Rasmussen and Pew nailed it and Fox, CNN, Hotline, and McClatchy were all off by a single point, well within the margin of error. Nate Silver’s statistical model? 6.1 percent exactly.
As for the key states, here are CNN’s reported margins as of 11 a.m. versus the RCP spreads as of yesterday:
The only two that were called incorrectly were razor thin and were called incorrectly for McCain, and the only one that vastly overestimated Obama’s support was Iowa, where he won by nine points anyway. Oh well.
Exit question via Taegan Goddard: Did The One head-fake Maverick in Pennsylvania? Better exit question from yours truly: Even if he hadn’t, wouldn’t McCain have been forced to make a play for the state anyway to try to make up the difference in electoral votes?