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Notes from the collapse

posted at 10:35 am on November 5, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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This morning, after having absorbed the substantial victory of Barack Obama, I noticed a couple of interesting items in the data.  Barack Obama certainly won this race, but he won it with just a little more votes than George Bush won in his re-election bid, and the turnout models came up short.

In 2004, Bush beat John Kerry by winning 62.04 million votes.  In 2008, Obama won 62.443 million, a gain of only 400,000. In 2004, Kerry garnered 59.028 million votes; John McCain only got 55.386 million.   That means this election saw 3.24 million fewer votes than four years ago.  Far from being more energized, the nation appeared to be more apathetic.

Using these numbers, we can see that Barack Obama succeeded in turning out his base much more effectively than McCain did his.  How do we know that it’s a base turnout rather than a tsunami of opinion to Democrats?  For one thing, Dems didn’t pick up a boatload of new seats in the House, and they may underperform expectations yet in the Senate.  They did gain some strength with independents, but only gaining between 11-20 seats in the House tells us that they found votes in districts they already control, more than finding converts.

There’s nothing wrong with that; George Bush won two elections doing the same thing.  He only gained 3 million votes over John Kerry’s 2004 performance.  It does reflect a certain brittleness about Obama’s support that may not be evident in the flush of his Electoral College victory.  That doesn’t mean he can’t broaden his appeal after winning office, but it does mean that he primarily won among friendlies and not through appeals to bipartisanship.

John McCain and the GOP didn’t get their turnout in this race.  They lost almost seven million voters from 2004, a rather stunning number.  We’ll be chewing on this for a while, but that’s more than 10% of the Bush vote that got lost in this election.  Did they stay home, or did significant numbers of them defect to Obama?  I’m guessing the former.  The GOP demoralized their base by acting like Democrats for too many years, and the winds of “change” proved too dispiriting this time around.

Is it his fault?  I don’t think it’s his fault as much as the historical trend.  Republicans faced two strong headwinds in this race: history and their own fecklessness as a party.  History tells us that the White House almost always changes party after two terms with one, and Bush is a particularly disliked incumbent.  The Republican Party lost its soul when it launched its K Street Project, and the spendfest of 2001-6 only made that more clear.

If the GOP wants to win 60 million votes in future national elections, it has to stand for something other than being Democrat Lite.  The Republican Party needs clarity, purpose, and most importantly, an end to the hypocrisy of talking smaller government while porking up their districts.  When given only a choice between real Democrats and fake Democrats, Americans will choose the former, which we found out in 2006.

Update: I wrote “latter” when I meant “former”; I don’t think that defections account for Obama’s victory.


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Hey HornetSting –

Good to see you’ve still got the fire! I truly appreciate you guys standing up for me against the Troll last night.

Your kindness overwhelms this newbie.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 1:39 PM

Y Not, how did Obama’s win cause a devasting defeat for private philanthropy? He’s not talking about eliminating any charitable tax deductions.

jim m on November 5, 2008 at 1:25 PM

jim m –

I doubt I will be able to convince you… and I am really not in a good frame of mind today to try very hard… but the professional fundraisers who work for universities, hospitals, and other non-profits in my circle and my husband’s circle are all very worried. Their donors are signaling that after this year they will be reducing their giving. Basically, folks are liquidating their assets now (like the Miami Dolphins owner plans to) and making charitable donations before sheltering the rest from taxes.

When taxes go up on the “rich,” philanthropy goes down. Obama admires socialist Europe and I believe he intends to model the U.S. after Europe by increasing government’s role in areas like education and health care and paying for it by increasing taxes. It is very telling that when Obama talks about taxes, he talks about them in terms of redistributing wealth to the less fortunate. When I think about taxes, I think about building roads and defending my country, not about sending someone else’s kids to college or paying for someone else’s healthcare.

In addition, because I believe a Democrat-controlled Congress and feel-good loan programs led to the current financial crisis, I expect the economy and stock market to continue its decline. Colleges and universities rely heavily on their endowments to maintain their infrastructure and fund scholarships… endowment performances are down. AND many colleges and universities had their funds in Wachovia. Those funds (or the majority of those funds) are now trapped indefinitely — colleges have been told they can only access about 20% of their endowments in Wachovia. Many colleges and universities are already implementing hiring freezes, stopping building programs, and cutting their budgets. (I’m too despondent today to hunt up all the links for you. Maybe some other time.)

Pardon the re-post (if you follow the links in the post you’ll get some references):

Americans give about twice as much (as a percent of GDP) as Brits (who are the most generous Europeans) and three times as much as other European countries’ citizens.

According to Philanthropy UK:

“The most wealthy 10% account for about half of all individual giving in the USA; in Britain it is only a fifth.”

“American households with annual incomes over $200,000 give 7.4% to charity. UK households with similar income give 1.2%”

Let’s eat the rich (where’s Grue when you need him?). It won’t have a deleterious effect on our universities, hospitals, patient support groups, women’s shelters, rape crisis hotlines, AIDS research efforts, zoos, museums….

Oh, and while we’re at it, let’s promise everyone universal health care and a college education.

Y-not on October 21, 2008 at 6:58 PM

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 1:42 PM

I was wrong. I thought the Republican turnout would be the largest in history. I think that the Tom Tancredo types on immigration may have been more ticked off by McCain than has been reported. In addition McCain may have ticked off fiscal conservatives for voting for the bailout.

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:48 PM

I’m from Kentucky and I can tell you that I’m not all too enthusiastic about Mitch being the party leader. This is the same Mitch that allowed the addition of needless pork to the bailout, then voted for it.

If you guys want to back a Kentucky senator, let’s put the party in the hands of Bunning.

leetpriest on November 5, 2008 at 12:03 PM

I am proud to say that I actually get to vote for Bunning. I like some senators like Sessions, but they aren’t in my state, but Bunning will do in their place.

DFCtomm on November 5, 2008 at 1:48 PM

I was wrong. I thought the Republican turnout would be the largest in history. I think that the Tom Tancredo types on immigration may have been more ticked off by McCain than has been reported. In addition McCain may have ticked off fiscal conservatives for voting for the bailout.

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:48 PM

I don’t know. Didn’t Barr get less votes than Nader? Isn’t Barr a secure the borders guy?

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 1:51 PM

Y Not, how did Obama’s win cause a devasting defeat for private philanthropy? He’s not talking about eliminating any charitable tax deductions.

jim m on November 5, 2008 at 1:25 PM

Here’s how that works. My family has for the last 15 years adopted families in the “Shaw and Murchison Road” area when I’m not deployed. We take all of their info for their kids and fill a Christmas bag with a toy, candy, toiletries and a cap and gloves. We normally spent about 2500 and raised as much and have in the past done as many as 200 bags for 60-70 families. If he allows the Bush tax breaks to expire and then raises my taxes to boot, guess who loses?

Obama just taxed the poor. Only he gives it back from the Government. So it’s the classic plan they go by. Never allow the public to receive philanthropy from other citizens when the government can take the money and give it to you themselves. I don’t get to choose where my gifts go.

hawkdriver on November 5, 2008 at 1:54 PM

Some pundits claimed that McCain lost the election when he voted for the bailout. I think there is some merit to that argument. In voting for the bailout, he was approving the pork in it, siding with Bush and Paulson, and not acting on behalf of many Republican House members and the American people in general who opposed it. Up to that point he had tried to advance the argument that he was a ‘maverick’. Unfortunately when push came to shove he behaved just like a typical politician, at least in the eyes of many.

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:54 PM

Hey HornetSting –

Good to see you’ve still got the fire! I truly appreciate you guys standing up for me against the Troll last night.

Your kindness overwhelms this newbie.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 1:39 PM

You, kingsjester, are a welcome voice in our community. We usually ignore trolls until they attack one of our own. We are like a family, we bicker amongst each other a lot, but if an outsider, troll, attacks, we unleash hell. Welcome to the hive.
I am on fire today. I feel free from the RINO net. We own our party again. McCain can reach across his aisle and he will get his hand slapped when a fresh, young conservative comes and puts him out to pasture in 2010. It is time for fresh blood. No more bending. No more hiding. We are conservatives. We do not surrender.

HornetSting on November 5, 2008 at 1:54 PM

I just heard that Peggy Noonan is going to be on Oprah today. The token conservative! She’s hit the jackpot with her anti-Palin articles.

PattyJ on November 5, 2008 at 1:56 PM

How did Obama win Pennsylvania by such a large margin (10 points)? And how did Murtha retain his seat after calling his constituents racists and rednecks?

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:58 PM

Obama just taxed the poor. Only he gives it back from the Government. So it’s the classic plan they go by. Never allow the public to receive philanthropy from other citizens when the government can take the money and give it to you themselves. I don’t get to choose where my gifts go.

hawkdriver on November 5, 2008 at 1:54 PM

Yes. His plan is to continue to consolidate his power base by making the poor and lower-middle classes dependent on the government. Obama’s decision to attack and ridicule Cindy McCain, the only true philanthropist of the bunch, through his surrogates told me everything I needed to know about his thoughts on charitable giving. His tax returns — and Biden’s — just confirmed it.

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 1:58 PM

Some pundits claimed that McCain lost the election when he voted for the bailout. I think there is some merit to that argument. In voting for the bailout, he was approving the pork in it, siding with Bush and Paulson, and not acting on behalf of many Republican House members and the American people in general who opposed it. Up to that point he had tried to advance the argument that he was a ‘maverick’. Unfortunately when push came to shove he behaved just like a typical politician, at least in the eyes of many.

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:54 PM

I sort of think he lost it when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. He had been gathering momentum before that, or so it seemed; and Obama was positively gleeful the day after the Lehman announcement. But suspending his campaign and hightailing it for D.C. was bad too. It reinforced Senator McCain imagery.

ddrintn on November 5, 2008 at 1:59 PM

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:54 PM

If McCain had opposed the bailout, and it didn’t pass, and the market did exactly what it has done – he would have been blamed for not letting the market climb back to 12,000 or 14,000.

I don’t think McCain knew if the bailout was necessary or not. I don’t think anyone did, since none of us really knew what the real story was (the real financial story). We still don’t.

progressoverpeace on November 5, 2008 at 2:02 PM

Set aside what you’ve learned from reading Hot Air and similar resources, and imagine you’re an average voter in the swing states, one of the people who really could have gone either way. You were sold a vision by the Obama campaign, which broadly includes almost all media outlets, and the people who control the popular culture. The vision was a promise of free comforts from a wise and benevolent state, which they told you has been failing you until now. These wonderful benefits would be paid for by faceless, sinister rich people who did something incomprehensible, but very bad, to the markets recently – an idea that was most definitely not contested by McCain, so it must be true.

You had been made to feel relentlessly bad about the country for years, and more generally, you’ve been taught since childhood that America is fundamentally corrupt and flawed – founded in racism and genocide. You are convinced the economy has been terribly mis-managed under Bush, although you couldn’t say exactly why. You vaguely remember the 9/11 attacks, but that was a long time ago, and you’ve been told endlessly that the primary consequence of those attacks was the un-necessary and bungled invasion of Iraq. You haven’t thought about Iraq much in a year or two, because the media stopped reporting on it. Before that, all the news was awful, so the whole thing must have been a terrible mistake. You couldn’t think of a single thing Bush has ever done right, and you haven’t seen or heard from him in a couple of years. Since he hasn’t been defending or explaining himself, all the terrible things they said about him must be true.

You know that America has serious problems with racism, because you are told this incessantly – it’s a part of almost every movie and TV show you watch. You don’t think of yourself as a racist, and none of your friends is one, but you know there are tons of them out there in the deep South, lurking in the Bible Belt. You would very much like an opportunity to prove you’re not a racist, and feel good about yourself. You’ve been taught all your life to hold those redneck Bible-thumpers in utter contempt, and now you’ve been told that voting for Obama would be a perfect way to show your moral superiority.

The Obama campaign was energetic and charismatic, with catchy slogans that were easy to remember, and high production values for all of its events. The campaign and its media cheerleaders were energetic and passionate. Even if you have any doubts about all of the above, you just don’t have the strength to resist the pop-culture drumbeat. The McCain campaign never offered you that kind of strength. They had no coherent vision, no catchy slogan, no grand promises of fresh government benefits. They spent most of their time telling you how much they respect that dashing young Obama fellow. They eventually said some disturbing things about Obama’s past associations, but you don’t really know who Bill Ayers or Jeremiah Wright are, because the media never told you about them, aside from a vague suggestion that Ayers did something controversial a long time ago. At the debates, Obama said he barely knew the guy, and McCain didn’t call him on it, so bringing it up later seemed desperate. There was eventually a big scandal around Obama and Joe the Plumber, but the media quickly explained that Joe was a shady character with a checkered past who was probably a McCain campaign operative anyway. By the beginning of last week, you didn’t remember exactly what happened between Obama and Joe.

All you ever really got out of the McCain campaign was that McCain was an old war hero, and you shouldn’t vote for Obama because he was young. You were told to look down your nose at Sarah Palin, and every day, there was a new story about something clumsy or foolish she had done. As of Election Day, the only thing you remembered about her was that she gracefully lost her one debate (the media told you so), she has weird religious views, there’s something odd about her children, and she spent a lot of money on clothes.

It was easy to pull that lever for Obama and thumb your nose at the hated Bush. Many of the things that happen over the next two years will be very confusing to you, but you’ll be told they were all Bush’s fault anyway. At least you can proudly say you voted for the first black president. Even McCain and Bush are telling you how wonderful that is.

Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008 at 2:03 PM

Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008 at 2:03 PM

Good assessment.

Can any Republican win the White House ever again?

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 2:06 PM

It was easy to pull that lever for Obama and thumb your nose at the hated Bush. Many of the things that happen over the next two years will be very confusing to you, but you’ll be told they were all Bush’s fault anyway. At least you can proudly say you voted for the first black president. Even McCain and Bush are telling you how wonderful that is.

Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008 at 2:03 PM

All of that will have very, very limited mileage. The MSM will be trying to regather the shreds of their lost credibility and may end up being Obama’s harshest critics. What they made, they can destroy.

ddrintn on November 5, 2008 at 2:06 PM

The Democrats are worse than the Republicans. I believe that. I believe that Barack Hussein Obama is worse than John McCain. I believe that. But, even John McCain and the Republican party are not offering us answers. The so-called conservative movement is a farce and a paper tiger. The GOP strategists and all these talking heads running the Republican party must go. They DO NOT represent the silent majority of this country. I think this is worth emphasizing this point. Unless we COMPLETELY CHANGE THE STATUS QUO, we will never have a real conservative movement and if we do not have a real conservative movement, then America is literally doomed.

apacalyps on November 5, 2008 at 2:06 PM

We lost because we didn’t show up? Pathetic. We got what we deserved.

pugwriter on November 5, 2008 at 2:07 PM

The reason why The One got so many votes while the senate didn’t swing as far as it could have is because a quarter of Obama voters showed up to punch one hole.

LibTired on November 5, 2008 at 2:09 PM

We lost because we didn’t show up? we got what we deserved. I agree

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 2:11 PM

How did Obama win Pennsylvania by such a large margin (10 points)? And how did Murtha retain his seat after calling his constituents racists and rednecks?

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:58 PM

PA went for the “Thank you sir may I have another,” mandate yesterday.

msmveritas on November 5, 2008 at 2:12 PM

I don’t think this country will survive the long haul to get control of the MSM and universities from the leftists. I just hope that if the left pushes too far (for example, in gun control (high ammo taxes/licensing and/or AWB II)) those in the position to do so will make a stand, like Montana did prior to the Heller decision.

hogfat on November 5, 2008 at 2:16 PM

All of that will have very, very limited mileage. The MSM will be trying to regather the shreds of their lost credibility and may end up being Obama’s harshest critics. What they made, they can destroy.

ddrintn on November 5, 2008 at 2:06 PM

I wish I could bring myself to believe that. But I think the MSM is so invested in Obama being the best President ever that it doesn’t matter how much he messes up they will cheer him on.

And those who dont’ will face his rath, just like in the campaign. The press only turned against McCain because he wasn’t “The One”. Obama is the narrative the press has been waiting for. He is the image they want the world to see.

Our only hope is that the American people will be able to see through the fog of press coverage.

petunia on November 5, 2008 at 2:17 PM

Hi,

Any word on when that Whitey Tape is going to be released?

Thanks.

Vernon Hardapple on November 5, 2008 at 2:18 PM

If the Hispanic vote shifted as stated on CNN, then that might have been the game changer.

The Republicans are in trouble:
- They seem openly hostile to immigration, and in doing so they alienate potential new voters (and first generation Americans);
- Related, they seem to care more about abstract principals (which they abandon as it suits) than they do about real flesh and blood human beings;
- They can’t win in cities because they don’t have any answers to urban problems (if they are even aware of them);
- They have become big spenders and are no longer federalists;
- They can’t speak the lingo on ‘caring’ about the environment which is an issue that isn’t going away;
- The party will die if it remains forever uncompetitive in California, New York, and Illinois.

And finally I’d add that John McCain is a great human being, but it was never clear why he wanted to be, or should be, elected President, other than he wasn’t Barack Obama.

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 2:19 PM

I wish I could bring myself to believe that. But I think the MSM is so invested in Obama being the best President ever that it doesn’t matter how much he messes up they will cheer him on.

And those who dont’ will face his rath, just like in the campaign. The press only turned against McCain because he wasn’t “The One”. Obama is the narrative the press has been waiting for. He is the image they want the world to see.

Our only hope is that the American people will be able to see through the fog of press coverage.

petunia on November 5, 2008 at 2:17 PM

Of course, it’s only my opinion. ;) I think the “imagery” won’t be of much use if we have 10% unemployment or $5.00-per-gallon gas.

ddrintn on November 5, 2008 at 2:22 PM

If the Hispanic vote shifted as stated on CNN, then that might have been the game changer.

The Republicans are in trouble:
- They seem openly hostile to immigration, and in doing so they alienate potential new voters (and first generation Americans);

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 2:19 PM

No, real conservatives believe in the rule of law. New Mexico, Colorado..republican in 2004, fell to democrats. Illegals were voting. Know it. Accept it. Your democracy was sold for the price of a stolen social security number and a driver’s license.
We believe in our sovereignty and that those here illegally should not benefit from breaking the law.

HornetSting on November 5, 2008 at 2:24 PM

Well, at least now we have a target, a goal…with McCain it was “just don’t lose”, now we will have a reason to win in fur years.
It is hard to win, when you don’t know what you are winning…

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 2:24 PM

[[Y Not, how did Obama’s win cause a devasting defeat for private philanthropy?
jim m on November 5, 2008]]

Well, I don’t know about philanthropy, but I will NOT be tipping my waiters and waitreses anymore or spending money at more expensive outlets just to support local businesses….because I will not be able to AFFORD IT!

Let Obama support those small businesses like he promised.

Let Obama and local restaurants with their tax breaks actually PAY for their help.

Let Obama hire those newly minted citizens from Mexico to do labor at the Whitehouse…..I will NOT be able to afford it (or he can just give them a check from my wallet just for showing up in our inner cities).

Let Obama use the money I used to give freely to shelters but now give to Him, distribute it to those shelters.

Most of all….let Obama payoff the mortgages and debts of minorities and drug addicted slackers, faux hurricane victims too involved with detrimental lifestyles to pay for insurance, and media obsessed youth too lazy and unambitious to even hold a job.

I’M DONE….GOOD LUCK AMERICA….I SEE THIS GOING NOWHERE!!!!

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 2:29 PM

Web sites and People we will be glad to hear no more from

Larry Johnson, Noquarterusa.com. Claimed a tape showing Michelle Obama ranting would be released as an October surprise. False.

African Press International. Claimed they would release a tape with Michelle Obama ranting right before election. False.

Larry Sinclair. Alleged he once had a gay relationship with Barack Hussein Obama. Failed lie detector test. File under same category as American Idol worst auditions.

Sean Malstrom. Blogger posted long piece right before election touting his experience as a former political analyst, and ranting about why the polls were wrong and how McCain was going to win Pennsylvania and the election. Bad analysis. Why can’t I get his old job?

Philip Berg. Filed ineffectual lawsuit doomed to fail, purportedly to force Obama to release birth certificate to prove he was not born in Hawaii. A few days before the election, the Hawaii state official in charge of birth certificates says she has the birth certificate and Obama was born in Hawaii. While the actual birth certificate may contain other embarrassing info about Obama, it is now impossible to say he is not a natural-born citizen.

That one Alaskan law enforcement officer that Palin fired for being a bad dude which led to allegations against her. Right before the election, it was announced the investigation cleared Palin of any wrongdoing.

Phil Gramm – Orchestrated financial industry deregulation which led to financial industry collapse right before election, crushing GOP chances.

Goodbye! Farewell! Auf Widersehen! Goodbye!

indythinker on November 5, 2008 at 2:39 PM

As opposed to past LEGAL immigrants, illegal immigrants seem to be unwilling to become a part of the melting pot that is America. There should not have been special ballots written and filled out especially for them, as has been reported. And, I should not have to press “1″ for English.
I am all for legal immigration. I have a friend and former co-worker from Cameroon. He went to West Point (Captain) and has a double major in Computers and Engineering. His beautiful wife is a Faimly Doctor. They came to America for a better life and have found it. We still live in the greatest country in the world. We have to hold on to our Conservative pronciples and our moral compass. We will endure! We will perservere!.

kingsjester on November 5, 2008 at 2:41 PM

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, Ed.

It seems that McCain only appealed to one leg of the conservative stool. That led to decreased turnout.

The candidate for 2012 needs to appeal to national security, economic, an social issues conservatives.

Right_of_Attila on November 5, 2008 at 2:42 PM

If the Hispanic vote shifted as stated on CNN, then that might have been the game changer.

The Republicans are in trouble:
– They seem openly hostile to immigration, and in doing so they alienate potential new voters (and first generation Americans);

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 2:19 PM

Since I am a new Republican of about 7 months. I was Democrat for years. I am in favor of ridding the illegals. They have no right sucking our system dry. They had a lot to do with this crisis. They been getting a way with this for years. They need to obey our laws and come here the right way. Here in Ca. You don’t show ID in the voting polls. All they make you do is give your name. You sign and then you get a ballot. Things need to be changed on our voting laws. In the primaries I saw illegals in there. You could tell they were not legal. And those workers there let them in and said nothing to them. That is not right. We need to get things done for our Country. We should take the Liberal’s attitude and turn the tables on them. They disgust me to no end.

sheebe on November 5, 2008 at 2:47 PM

I don’t mind the bitterness of Palin die-hards attacking me for pointing out she failed to close the gender gap. There was in fact no other reason than her gender to select a governor of a small, very red state who had served for 18 months, had no understanding of foreign policy or immigration or tax policy, who few had heard of, and who, let’s face it, is not the brightest bulb in the room. Sarah Palin is a great role model, and a babe, and by supporting her no one hurt the GOP or conservatism. Nevertheless, McCain made a strategic error that cost him the election when he took her over a conservative with experience (of either gender). America was not going to go for anything like a Bush/Quayle combination again. Palin did far better than I dreamed possible, but it was not enough.

If Palin rallied the base, then why did religious voters go more for Obama? Palin is not the scapegoat here. She served admirably. McCain has himself to blame for picking Palin, for pushing McCain-Feingold, and for taking public financing (among other strategic errors). Nevertheless, McCain is an admirable man.

Palin, McCain, and all of us need to do one basic thing: rethink. We got our ass handed to us and we haven’t really figured out why, or how to avoid it in the future. We need to chew this over for a while.

indythinker on November 5, 2008 at 2:53 PM

The candidate for 2012 needs to appeal to national security, economic, an social issues conservatives.

Right_of_Attila

That’s going to turn off the Hispanic vote, the black vote, and the female vote.

The three-legged stool is dead. It was killed off by Reagan’s 1986 amnesty, unchecked illegal immigratino, abortion of the next generation, and political correctness in the media and on campus.

Time for a new stool.

indythinker on November 5, 2008 at 2:55 PM

We believe in our sovereignty and that those here illegally should not benefit from breaking the law.

HornetSting on November 5, 2008 at 2:24 PM

That’s not the point, of course we believe in sovereignty. But we don’t pay for that at the expense of the ones that are hear legally (”those dirty mexicans”), and we don’t do that by ridiculing people who want their relatives here.
There is a better way, Reagan found it, we can find it. We can have legal immigration in this country, we can establish a path to citizenship, and still gain the trust of the largest middle class migration in the U.S.

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:05 PM

If the Hispanic vote shifted as stated on CNN, then that might have been the game changer.

The Republicans are in trouble:
- They seem openly hostile to immigration, and in doing so they alienate potential new voters (and first generation Americans);
- Related, they seem to care more about abstract principals (which they abandon as it suits) than they do about real flesh and blood human beings;
- They can’t win in cities because they don’t have any answers to urban problems (if they are even aware of them);
- They have become big spenders and are no longer federalists;
- They can’t speak the lingo on ‘caring’ about the environment which is an issue that isn’t going away;
- The party will die if it remains forever uncompetitive in California, New York, and Illinois.
And finally I’d add that John McCain is a great human being, but it was never clear why he wanted to be, or should be, elected President, other than he wasn’t Barack Obama.

Exactly. So until the GOP does not adress these things is going to remain a regional party and have a very hard time being again in the control of the Congress or the White House.

clemycali on November 5, 2008 at 3:07 PM

There was in fact no other reason than her gender to select a governor of a small, very red state who had served for 18 months, had no understanding of foreign policy or immigration or tax policy, who few had heard of, and who, let’s face it, is not the brightest bulb in the room…
indythinker on November 5, 2008 at 2:53 PM

Not to change your mind, it won’t…but to let others know that your analogy won’t go unanswered.
There was a reason, and it was apparent, she had that intangible ability to excite and inspire people. People will vote for who they like, before issues. Then they use the issues to justify their decisions, and they will manipulate their justifications to make it “fit” their emotional decisions.
To say she is not the brightest bulb, is ridiculous, you don’t run a state and not be intelligent. Especially maintaining a 86% approval rating, unheard of, name me one other politician with that approval rating (yeah, I know it dropped, but it was the MSM that was the point man on that).
People yearn for just a “normal” person to represent them, that is what Reagan gave them, he touched people, and so did she…btw, Reagan was not regarded as the “brightest bulb”, he was goofed on and ridiculed for his lack of “education”. A way for people to discount the ability to talk to the common man, something the status finds disgusting, the faux intellectuals like you do not want that in their lives.
Lack of national experience, yes, (not non-existent) but then you get that now by being in the senate…a place that you learn to get elected, not make mistakes…they are professionals at running for office and looking good, but not as decision makers (or we would not be in the trouble we are now).
She was more naive about how the press handled her. She expected to be asked about her experience, not the multitude of “gotcha” questions. She wanted to showcase here talents…energy, management, decision making, deal making, organization building, running a “clean” machine, executive experience. All of those greater then anyone one of the three.
But handling the press, she was weak…if she would have told Gibson to stuff it, and Katie to loosen up, then she would have been just fine. Nobody knew what the “Bush Doctrine” was, not even Krauthamer, the person who coined the phrase knew what Gibson was talking about.
So save your little, “not the brightest bulb” for people who want to point fingers…she was the brightest light in a dim campaign.
You ain’t exactly lighting up with good ideas…

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 1:51 PM

For the record, Bob Barr is anything BUT a control the borders guy.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 3:27 PM

Reagan’s 1986 amnesty, unchecked illegal immigratino…

indythinker on November 5, 2008 at 2:55 PM

Better hit the history books.
Reagan did not have unchecked illegal amnesty, in fact he never had an “amnesty” bill.
He created a path to being a legal immigrant, a path that was killed and torn apart by the Democrats…but he had very logical and responsible steps for immigrants to enter and become citizens.
A big fat F in history for you today.

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:27 PM

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:05 PM

I don’t see anyone claiming the Republicans should run on a “Those Dirty Mexicans!” campaign. What do legal immigrants (many of whom have to wait even longer to come due to overcrowding by illegal linejumpers) have to do with it?

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 3:28 PM

Tomorrow, Obama will be briefed about ecret intelligency from the CIA, NSA, etc. The enemy will know all of our secrets, what a shame

tocoloro on November 5, 2008 at 3:36 PM

For the record, Bob Barr is anything BUT a control the borders guy.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 3:27 PM

I stand corrected re Bob Barr. I was going by his web site and a couple of others, but I must have misinterpreted them. I was trying to account for technopeasant’s post below

I was wrong. I thought the Republican turnout would be the largest in history. I think that the Tom Tancredo types on immigration may have been more ticked off by McCain than has been reported. In addition McCain may have ticked off fiscal conservatives for voting for the bailout.

technopeasant on November 5, 2008 at 1:48 PM

Where did the Tancredo vote go?

http://www.bobbarr2008.com/issues/border-security-immigration/

The border can never be completely open or completely closed. But the starting point of any immigration policy is to secure the borders to the extent possible. America needs to be able to check potential immigrants, criminal background, communicable disease and possible terrorism. Only by deterring massive illegal border crossings can the U.S. put in place a fair and enforceable legal immigration policy.

Equally important, we must end government benefits and services for illegal immigrants. Many local communities and states have begun to reduce payments to those who come here illegally, but a 1982 Supreme Court decision mandates that we provide education to the children of illegal immigrants. This detrimental ruling should be overturned through another Court challenge or a constitutional amendment.

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Bob Barr unequivocally stated on Glenn Beck’s show that he is opposed to any border fence. He’s a secure the borders guy like McCain is a secure the borders guy. He was in favor of ending benefits but I’m sure he’d like to do that for a lot more than just illegal immigrants. This is Bob Barr after all.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 3:40 PM

I don’t see anyone claiming the Republicans should run on a “Those Dirty Mexicans!” campaign. What do legal immigrants (many of whom have to wait even longer to come due to overcrowding by illegal line jumpers) have to do with it?
————————————————————-
All some Republicans seem to talk about is illegal immigration, and no one is saying it isn’t a serious issue. But how many Republicans get in front of the cameras in the well of the House or Senate and plead for increased legal immigration? They should do it every day, and ask for much higher numbers for Mexico. Mexicans want to come here to work, and by and large they are fantastic people, Catholic, pro-life, pro-business. They want to be here and become Americans, despite the obstacles they face. Couple this with a phase out of broadcasting licenses to outlets broadcasting mostly in Spanish. Win-win. Instead all we get is endless carping about illegals.

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 3:41 PM

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 3:40 PM

Thanks. I didn’t follow Barr closely since I had no intention of voting for the Libertarian nominee.

Y-not on November 5, 2008 at 3:43 PM

There are 2 if not 3 million votes still to be counted from Oregon, Washingto and Cal.

BuzzCrutcher on November 5, 2008 at 3:49 PM

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 3:28 PM

Because over the months I have seen posters slip into the “bash all Hispanics” as they try to defend their desire to stop illegal immigrants.
Sometimes in their frustrations, their true bigoted feelings surface…and you are right they have no place in the Republican party.

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:53 PM

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 3:41 PM

I agree, rather then do nothing but complain, develop an organized plan to allow the qualified ones in. Then, as Reagan did, create a path to citizenship.

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:56 PM

There are 2 if not 3 million votes still to be counted from Oregon, Washingto and Cal.

Now even if McCain wins California, Oregon and Washington he still lost the electoral college and the popular vote. So it doesen’t really matter.

clemycali on November 5, 2008 at 3:57 PM

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:56 PM

Qualified ones too, not only.

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 3:58 PM

Tomorrow, Obama will be briefed about ecret intelligency from the CIA, NSA, etc. The enemy will know all of our secrets, what a shame

tocoloro on November 5, 2008 at 3:36 PM

No, more then likely he will go “Oh Sh*t”, I didn’t realize it was like this. And he will began to wonder how he keeps our servicemen in place, and still maintain his base.
I think he is in for a real eye-opener, a real shock.

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:58 PM

[[Palin, McCain, and all of us need to do one basic thing: rethink...indythinker on November 5, 2008]]

So consider yourself in the majority (the same majority that voted for Obama or didn’t vote at all) as saying republicans should abandon their principles and “change” (Obama code word) our beliefs.

[[ The three-legged stool is dead. It was killed off by Reagan’s 1986 amnesty, unchecked illegal immigratino, abortion of the next generation, and political correctness in the media and on campus.
Time for a new stool.
indythinker on November 5, 2008]]]

[[So until the GOP does not adress these things is going to remain a regional party and have a very hard time being again in the control of the Congress or the White House.
clemycali on November 5, 2008]]]

Sorry clem, conservatives don’t need to agree with socialists on global warming or cater to anti-establishment illegal crossers who demand my hard earned money to become viable again. We need to educate and sell our philosophies to those Americans who have the countries best intrest at heart and CONVINCE this nation to become a winner again. We DON’T need to accept a europeanized replacement of our pioneer, hard-working, capitalist, tradition

As Regan would say…”there you go again”..NO, Republicans need to reinforce said stool, not get a new one! say goodbye to ALL RINO’s and “moderate-liberal” republicans

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 3:59 PM

I agree, rather then do nothing but complain, develop an organized plan to allow the qualified ones in. Then, as Reagan did, create a path to citizenship.

Thats the key because people see the unqualified ones, those who sit in the parking lots looking for the day jobs, the thiefs, the gangbangers and they judege after what they see.
But its going to be very, very difficult to do it without alienating even more parts of the conservative base.

clemycali on November 5, 2008 at 4:00 PM

conservatives don’t need to agree with socialists on global warming or cater to anti-establishment illegal crossers who demand my hard earned money to become viable again. We need to educate and sell our philosophies to those Americans who have the countries best intrest at heart and CONVINCE this nation to become a winner again. We DON’T need to accept a europeanized replacement of our pioneer, hard-working, capitalist, tradition

Nobody says that but the GOP needs to look around and see that there are issues that were not on the conservative agenda but are important for a large number of people. For instance, if you live in a rural area, you don’t care about public transportation, but if you live and work in a city this is important for you. Thats only an example. No need to cater to illegal imigration crowd but you need to realize that no matter what we are not going to be able to deport 10-11 mil people and try to have a solution for the problem. As about economics, what the republicans need to do is to speak in the language of the people that watch tv and have little or none economic education. On other words:have a simple message. Obama was effective when he was speaking about the health care and about the money he’ll give to the small people. Tax rebates and capital gains tax sounds greek to a lot of people. Make the economic message strong and simple, allow legal emigration while tightening the job fosset for the illegals, make english mandatory and explain why is better evan for the hispanics to learn it, and so on.

clemycali on November 5, 2008 at 4:08 PM

But what about those Earmarks!

Firebird on November 5, 2008 at 4:10 PM

Phil Gramm – Orchestrated financial industry deregulation which led to financial industry collapse right before election, crushing GOP chances.

The modification of Glass-Steagel in 1999 had nothing whatsoever to do with the financial events of 2007-2008. Nothing, except that it made possible and legal the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by BofA, which helped a little.

Heavy government interference in the markets led to the meltdown.

JDPerren on November 5, 2008 at 4:12 PM

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 3:53 PM

There are moronic bigots in both parties. None of them should be given a platform. However, I still strongly oppose illegal immigration. I do not, however, oppose people of hispanic decent becoming Americans, much the opposite, provided they play by the book and don’t jump ahead of anyone else waiting in line.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 4:14 PM

But what about those Earmarks!

Firebird on November 5, 2008

__________________________________________________
LOL, yeah, no more US Senators as Presidential nominees. I think Obama stood a chance exactly becuase he didn’t engage in Washington-speak.

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 4:14 PM

Excellent, DoctorZero.

Alana on November 5, 2008 at 4:15 PM

clemycali on November 5, 2008 at 4:00 PM

Difficult if carried by someone with little respect…

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 4:15 PM

Oh and just for peoples’ information, on December 6 they vote for a new House Minority Leader. Maybe we should get something organized for a massive call-in, get somebody like Eric Cantor or Mike Pence in there.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 4:16 PM

People this is why we lose elections. We have a cause and effect here. We have an election of a socialist and we have the effect of a DOw dropping 5%. and yet not one conservative blog is blaring the news. We need to hammer the dems on the effects of their victory. We need to educate the public in economics. The choice 63m people made last night cuased the stock market to lose 5% we need to yell this from the rooftops, This is what white guilt cost all those affluent white middle class voters.

unseen on November 5, 2008 at 4:18 PM

right2bright
What you mean?

clemycali on November 5, 2008 at 4:19 PM

People don’t want to be in the same party as Joe the Plumber. They want to be in the party of Joe the Businessman and Joe the Lawyer.

Speedwagon82 on November 5, 2008 at 4:19 PM

People don’t want to be in the same party as Joe the Plumber. They want to be in the party of Joe the Businessman and Joe the Lawyer.

Speedwagon82 on November 5, 2008 at 4:19 PM

Wh ythey get taxed more…

unseen on November 5, 2008 at 4:20 PM

Speedwagon82 on November 5, 2008 at 4:19 PM

I think calling him Joe the Plumber was a bit much. Then Tito the Builder, Wendy the Waitress, it got really bad, really gimmicky, and really cartoonish. I’m all for Joe speaking out, but call him by his name. Or at the very least, leave the gimmick to just the one man, just use Tito’s name, mention he’s in construction. That way it doesn’t sound like a children’s show.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 4:21 PM

The Republican Party of 1958 was even more religious than the Republican Party of 2008. But they were also the party of the educated, the upper middle class, the success stories, and even a good part of Hollywood. Why can’t we go back to that?

Speedwagon82 on November 5, 2008 at 4:27 PM

But they were also the party of the educated, the upper middle class, the success stories, and even a good part of Hollywood. Why can’t we go back to that?

Just about everything you said sounded good except the Hollywood part. Hollywood has awful values so I don’t want to be associated with them.

terryannonline on November 5, 2008 at 4:31 PM

[[get somebody like Eric Cantor or Mike Pence in there.
thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008]]]

I like those….what about Mitch McConnell?

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 4:32 PM

Does anyone have a link of state breakdown of votes cast? Missouri and NC show the Obama/McCain vote split even percentage wise but no breakdown of the actual numbers (on Fox news’ map).

The more I look at this, the more convinced I am that ACORN made a difference. Bastards.

linlithgow on November 5, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 4:32 PM

Throw him up there too, maybe we can have a poll!

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 4:34 PM

linlithgow on November 5, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Oh come on, 200,000 uninvestigated possibly fraudulant votes in Ohio, what difference could that possibly make?? Oh yeah.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 4:35 PM

right2bright
What you mean?

clemycali on November 5, 2008 at 4:19 PM

I am agreeing with you, it is a difficult task…unless you have someone with real charismatic political charm, that connects with the people.
Then you can convince people that we can create a path for immigrants, and not offend the conservative base.
Newt could do that, not as a candidate, but as a “special project”. Could call it “Contract with Immigrants”, and outline the several steps to legal immigration, and how to move the illegal to legal status (No, I don’t know how). While closing the borders to illegal crossing…so they don’t have to “sneak” in, but have a pathway in. Maybe an “immigration” tax paid by the employer, or something like that.

right2bright on November 5, 2008 at 4:35 PM

Thanks, Y-Not, hawkdriver and others for your explanation.

I guess I would have thought as taxes went up, people with money might actually give more to charity not less, because of the charitable income tax deduction. I do agree that it’s likely that the financial markets will continue to slide, but I frankly would have expected that even if McCain won because of all the unresolved issues.

—————————–
BTW, I’m not sure that this ever was realistically a winnable election for McCain. He was tarred with Bush’s and the GOP’s fialures for the last eight years. He did have a glimmer of hope after the GOP convention and Palin, but the bounce ended fairly quickly and put him slightly down with Obama. And then the Wall Street collapse just nailed him.

jim m on November 5, 2008 at 4:36 PM

[[I think calling him Joe the Plumber was a bit much. Then Tito the Builder, Wendy the Waitress, it got really bad, really gimmicky, and really cartoonish. I’m all for Joe speaking out, but call him by his name. That way it doesn’t sound like a children’s show.
thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008]]]

exactly!…that was hilarious. The whole campaign was gimmicky and repetitive, not even CLOSE to serious enough for the times we are facing.

Hell, I thought I was going to vote for Obama there for a while, and then I came to my senses.

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 4:37 PM

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 4:37 PM

Glad you snapped out of it. I wouldn’t want my stamp of approval on the coming administration, that’s for sure.

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 4:38 PM

The Republican Party of 1958 was even more religious than the Republican Party of 2008. But they were also the party of the educated, the upper middle class, the success stories, and even a good part of Hollywood. Why can’t we go back to that?

Speedwagon82 on November 5, 2008 at 4:27 PM

They’ve still got a chunk of the upper middle class and the success stories, but the educated and Hollywood are gone for at least another generation. Taking back the education system should be a high priority for conservatives. It will be extremely difficult, because of the vast entrenched union and government apparatus in the way, and it will take years, but it can be done. Capturing the education system was a high priority for the 60s radicals, and it has obviously paid off for them. School choice is probably the best means of getting it back, and it’s something that can be fought for at the local level.

Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008 at 4:39 PM

Does anyone have a link of state breakdown of votes cast? Missouri and NC show the Obama/McCain vote split even percentage wise but no breakdown of the actual numbers (on Fox news’ map).
___________________________________________________________
MO results from Fox news map (you must click on the state and the state page will load with the results on the bottom)

McCain: 1,442,613
Obama: 1,436,745

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 4:40 PM

… and you get Hollywood back with more movies like “The Dark Knight.” Nobody is going to slam a door in Christopher Nolan’s face, even if he wants to make “Patriotic Heroes: From George Washington to John McCain” as his next film.

Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008 at 4:41 PM

Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008 at 4:41 PM

Can we get advanced tickets to that screening?

thecountofincognito on November 5, 2008 at 4:43 PM

School choice is probably the best means of getting it back, and it’s something that can be fought for at the local level.
_______________________________________________________________
Amen to that. The Presidential election is entrancing because we all vote in that one election, but the real spending decisions are decided at state and local levels.

Perhaps ignoring the ineffectual RNC and working at the grassroots is the way to go.

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 4:43 PM

Sorry to say that decisions are decided.

Sheerq on November 5, 2008 at 4:43 PM

One more character we will be glad to see the last of:

Ron Paul. This lying scumbag has no concept of how the economy works. His followers are a mix of Phish groupies, Obama voters trying to entice Republicans into voting third party, whackjob libertarians, race baiters, and the simply insane. The only good thing is he has likely ran his last presidential campaign. What a waste.

indythinker on November 5, 2008 at 4:44 PM

The more I look at this, the more convinced I am that ACORN made a difference. Bastards.

linlithgow on November 5, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Fox has an interactive map that will show each state by clicking on that state’ and then you can look at each county. In Tennessee, Obama won only six counties out of 95.

http://tinyurl.com/5eomu4

Pelayo on November 5, 2008 at 4:46 PM

[[Taking back the education system should be a high priority for conservatives. It will be extremely difficult, because of the vast entrenched union and government apparatus in the way, and it will take years, but it can be done.
Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008]]]

yours is probably the most important point in this whole thread and i completely agree.

I don’t think it would take too long if we used the left-wing approach. Just find case after case of “indoctrination” and file law suit after law suit against individual school disctricts until we put the fear of God in the rest of them. We could even enlist the ACLU in the process and make them prove they are not partisan.

This approach would take more money than time.

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 4:46 PM

The Republican Party needs clarity, purpose, and most importantly, an end to the hypocrisy of talking smaller government while porking up their districts. When given only a choice between real Democrats and fake Democrats, Americans will choose the former, which we found out in 2006.

That’s what I’ve been saying. I’m not a Republican and have no intention on becoming one. But I’m a dissatisfied Democrat who will be changing to Independent.

I have been complaining on this board (and others) about how ineffective the republicans have become because they have no real leadership anymore. It was a bad year to run as a conservative and with the collapse of the financial markets, bad housing and a media actively making Obama the new “king”, I don’t think McCain could have done any better. He got 56 million votes with very little support and attacks from even his own side.

Perhaps the Conservatives need to get honest. If you don’t, the Democrats will get more in 2010 midterm elections. Stop blaming and start reforming. McCain was right about that. Just too many of you were too arrogant to see it.

stefystef on November 5, 2008 at 4:48 PM

Oops! Try this

http://tinyurl.com/4vywu3

Pelayo on November 5, 2008 at 4:49 PM

Phil Gramm – Orchestrated financial industry deregulation which led to financial industry collapse right before election, crushing GOP chances.

indythinker on November 5, 2008 at 2:39 PM

That’s not even close to accurate. The rest of your comment was pretty good.

BadgerHawk on November 5, 2008 at 4:52 PM

exactly!…that was hilarious. The whole campaign was gimmicky and repetitive, not even CLOSE to serious enough for the times we are facing.

Hell, I thought I was going to vote for Obama there for a while, and then I came to my senses.

Goodeye_Closed on November 5, 2008 at 4:37 PM

Joe the Plumber was a good card they overplayed. He gave McCain a rare opening to connect to the average voter, but since connecting with average people doesn’t come naturally to him, he overdid it and unleashed the whole Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood.

I think it takes nothing away from McCain’s many noble qualities to observe that he doesn’t have the instinctive ability to speak directly and empathetically to regular folks. Palin does, which may be the key to her future on the national stage, and she’s well on her way to polishing her act and overcoming the early mis-steps. Palin critics should ask themselves how Obama would have fared in similarly hostile early interviews, full of gotcha questions, and those incredible “your exact words” moments. The big difference between his trajectory, and Palin’s, is that such questioning is literally inconceivable, now or in the future. She can learn what she needs, but McCain never could. If Joe the Plumber hadn’t dropped in his lap, he wouldn’t have come as close as he did.

Doctor Zero on November 5, 2008 at 4:53 PM

That means this election saw 3.24 million fewer votes than four years ago.

This should raise questions from the media about Obama’s historic fundraising, but it won’t. People were contributing – completely anonymously for all practical purposes – because Americans were just so darn excited about Obama, right?

RightOFLeft on November 5, 2008 at 4:53 PM

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