An Oregon surprise?
posted at 12:30 pm on November 5, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Many of us considered Gordon Smith a long shot to retain his Senate seat against Democrat Jeff Merkley, especially if Barack Obama won a convincing victory for the Presidency. But despite Obama’s 14-point win in Oregon, Smith has apparently hung onto the narrowest of margins to win the election. According to the Oregon Secretary of State, Smith beat Merkley by just 907 votes:
| Gordon H Smith (Republican) | 549,594 | 47.18% | ||
| Jeff Merkley (Democrat) | 548,687 | 47.10% |
If this holds — and there will almost certainly be a recount — this will be an unexpected lift for Republicans after a very difficult night. Given the strong showing for Obama in Oregon, this appears to be a clear renunciation of Merkley.
Blowback
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Well, Ed, let’s not forget Smith’s embrace of Obama, including using him positively in campaign ads, I’m sure that had a little something to do with his success.
okonkolo on November 5, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Would be nice to have 44 seats instead of 41. And maybe 45 if you count liebermann.
William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:32 PM
We all thank you for voting Coleman Ed.
Every vote counts even in MN.
Let’s hope the lead weathers the recount.
road2utopia on November 5, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Yes, this is huge. And thank you Ed for your efforts in MN pro Coleman, there also (I’m talking like Sarah now) I hope Coleman holds on. The Senate firewall is intact and even strong.
Paul-Cincy on November 5, 2008 at 12:33 PM
I feel for Liebermann
Capital Mess on November 5, 2008 at 12:33 PM
I like that Smith, along with Hagel, broke with the GOP on Iraq.
MedSchoolCatholic on November 5, 2008 at 12:35 PM
EPIC FAIL for Chuck Schumer. He spent $6 million trying to beat Mitch McConnell, and could not even beat Gordon Smith in one of the bluest states in the country.
rockmom on November 5, 2008 at 12:35 PM
I’ll drink to that, cheers.
abinitioadinfinitum on November 5, 2008 at 12:37 PM
I hope I was one of those 907 voters. I had to hold my nose voting for that tool Smith but I did it. Death to RINO’s.
Ceroth on November 5, 2008 at 12:37 PM
Liebermann needs to set with us now.
JeffreyLloyd on November 5, 2008 at 12:37 PM
I have to laugh on one point. Bob Byrd and John Murtha are SCREWED by the election of Obama.
Harry Reid is already kicking Byrd off his chairmanship and Barney Frank is gutting the military so a lot less earmarks for Murtha.
The moderates in the democratic party are already going to get punished by the “one”
William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:37 PM
We are now experiencing the WORST in liberalism. We are getting hit with their best shot. We will take the shot, survive, and learn: we will survive without these freakin’ RINO traitors.
I don’t care if there are only 2 conservatives in the Senate….I’m not supporting RINOs anymore.
Conservatives or nothing….let’s roll.
ex-Democrat on November 5, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Here is hoping Coleman wins the challenge. We had better have OUR people watching the recount!
freeus on November 5, 2008 at 12:38 PM
That lift could be short lived. I doubt the recount goes ‘our’ way. If he does win the recount then Smith can be the one of the votes that goes to Democrats so they can pass tax hikes, cap and trade, card check etc.
Theworldisnotenough on November 5, 2008 at 12:38 PM
Markets not liking THE MESSIAH today. -293 right now.
freeus on November 5, 2008 at 12:39 PM
Byrd’s Senate Seat is one we should be able to pick up I hope when he’s up for re-election. hope he doesn’t run again anyway
jp on November 5, 2008 at 12:39 PM
Well, he has won re-election until the 3rd re-count where they find a few hundred previously missed in the previous counts. They perfected the art of finding votes for Gregoire a few years ago.
bopbottle on November 5, 2008 at 12:40 PM
Cap Gains rates will soar next year, sell now and pay 15% instead.
the Dems will try Keynsian Economics on steroids next year, not good
jp on November 5, 2008 at 12:40 PM
Oh and another ray of sunshine that just had a thunder cloud moved over it is the GA election with Chambliss. He has to have 50% and is at something like 49.72% or something. Might have to have another election do-over!
freeus on November 5, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Smith’s a good man, despite all the “RINO” vitriol he receives from many fellow Republicans. His late-night speech to his supporters was excellent and very classy. Merkeley’s was absolutely, pathetically hilarious, as he babbled on and on and on in Bidenesque fashion. Shame on Ron Wyden, above all, for being a complete backstabber when he could have sat this one out without blowback from fellow Dems.
Christien on November 5, 2008 at 12:42 PM
He’s not a real republican. Who cares. RINOS are no longer welcome.
HornetSting on November 5, 2008 at 12:42 PM
Rossi lost the Governor’s race in WA. That was the bright spot I was hoping for after last night’s mess. Looks like my Rep. Reichart will hang on to a narrow lead. If not,it will be the first time a Dem has been elected for our district in the state’s history. *ugh*
No more RINOs, agreed.
illustr8r on November 5, 2008 at 12:43 PM
44 seats. 41 seats. 39 seats. Who cares.
They’ve said they’ll use the nuclear option.
R’s in the senate may as well sit at home for 2 years and not be associated with the disaster at all.
lorien1973 on November 5, 2008 at 12:44 PM
Smith is a good man, despite some of the positions he takes to stay electable is a pretty blue state. Glad I sent 200 more bucks to him last weekend.
Realist on November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Franken also lost by 700 votes. He’s screaming for recounts.
But I hope his loss holds.
Enoxo on November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM
Senate seats up for election 2010
Overview of races
1.1 Retiring Senators
1.1.1 Sam Brownback (R) of Kansas
1.2 Possible retiring Senators
1.2.1 Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut
1.3 Democratic Incumbent Races
1.3.1 Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
1.3.2 Barbara Boxer of California
1.3.3 Ken Salazar of Colorado
1.3.4 Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
1.3.5 Barack Obama of Illinois
1.3.6 Evan Bayh of Indiana
1.3.7 Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
1.3.8 Harry Reid of Nevada
1.3.9 Chuck Schumer of New York
1.3.10 Byron Dorgan of North Dakota
1.3.11 Ron Wyden of Oregon
1.3.12 Patrick Leahy of Vermont
1.3.13 Patty Murray of Washington
1.3.14 Russ Feingold of Wisconsin
1.4 Republican Incumbent Races
1.4.1 Richard Shelby of Alabama
1.4.2 Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
1.4.3 John McCain of Arizona
1.4.4 Mel Martinez of Florida
1.4.5 Johnny Isakson of Georgia
1.4.6 Mike Crapo of Idaho
1.4.7 Chuck Grassley of Iowa
1.4.8 Jim Bunning of Kentucky
1.4.9 David Vitter of Louisiana
1.4.10 Kit Bond of Missouri
1.4.11 Judd Gregg of New Hampshire
1.4.12 Richard Burr of North Carolina
1.4.13 George Voinovich of Ohio
1.4.14 Tom Coburn of Oklahoma
1.4.15 Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
1.4.16 Jim DeMint of South Carolina
1.4.17 John Thune of South Dakota
1.4.18 Bob Bennett of Utah
William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:46 PM
I think we should get together and target 1 or 2 democrats. People who are most likely to be defeated and go after them like they are the devil for 2 years.
lorien1973 on November 5, 2008 at 12:47 PM
The Senate results were a huge bright spot for the GOP.
Sarah Palin saved America once again. By helping win the senate seat in Alaska (believe me, it would have been lost if she weren’t on the ticket), we can block any Obama initiatives. If current results stand, there is plenty of margin even when discounting for the RINOS.
Norwegian on November 5, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Nice photo of the goofball, stuffing his mug dismissively at questions about Georgia! (That Georgia.)
~Tzetzes, Oregonian in Ohio
Tzetzes on November 5, 2008 at 12:49 PM
Anything that will knock that expected smirk off of Harry Reid’s face is fine with me.
pilamaye on November 5, 2008 at 12:50 PM
Wow, thanks William. Okay, we have a playbook.
Need to LEAVE the party due to RINO’ism:
1. Arlen Specter. Never should have been re-elected.
2. Sam Brownback. Folded like a lawnchair on immigration.
3. Judd Gregg. Folded like a lawnchair on bailout.
4. John McCain. Lost on the other side of the aisle.
5. Mel Martinez. Amnesty hack.
Did I miss anyone?
HornetSting on November 5, 2008 at 12:51 PM
Gordon Smith did what he had to do to survive in Oregon. I moved moderate in 2006, and stayed there. Oregon has always been blessed with 1 dem & 1 repub senator forever. Most dems actually like Smith, but this year all bets are off. The Moonbats came out for Obama and any name with a D next to it got voted it for. There are some very staunch Dems who supported Smith because they like the balance in Oregon. The whole state is conservative except for a thin blue line running north to south along the I-5 corridor.
It would be a shame if Gordon Smith loses, because Merkley is bought & paid for Washington DC owned Lib. A Pelosi/Reid robot.
portlandon on November 5, 2008 at 12:51 PM
2010 would be nice to hit these seats – no clue how likely it would be…
Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
Ken Salazar of Colorado
Evan Bayh of Indiana
Harry Reid of Nevada (DOUBLY NICE)
Byron Dorgan of North Dakota
GOP vulnerables might be these ones:
Mel Martinez of Florida
Kit Bond of Missouri
Judd Gregg of New Hampshire
Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
gatorboy on November 5, 2008 at 12:52 PM
Live here in Portland. Not a huge fan of Smith, but I hate losing and getting my face rubbed in (which is what will happen for the next N days) If Smith pulled it out, I’ll at least feel marginally better…
unrealcitizen on November 5, 2008 at 12:52 PM
Nice to see some fellow Oregonians here this morning.
Christien on November 5, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Isn’t this the guy who didn’t know Georgia was a country?
Oldnuke on November 5, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Here here. No more playing their games, now we win at our’s.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 5, 2008 at 12:53 PM
Sadly, I think Smith loses. He is currently 12,000 ahead, with 71% percent of the vote counted statewide, but less than half the vote has been counted in Multnomah County (Portland), which has a 64,000 margin for Merkley among the 47% counted in the county, and Lane County (Eugene), which has 17,000 margin for Merkley among the 46% counted so far in the county.
Realist on November 5, 2008 at 12:54 PM
Well,irregardless of seats,the Liberal democratic Party
had 40 years to straight out their social mess’s!
And now,the Obama Socialist Party,along with an almost certain majority what to repeat the same experiment in
grand style!!
The other America has spoken!
Barack Obama,has to deliver!
And they will become bitterly disappointed,
because the Liberal track record is failure,
especially when over 40 years backs up the facts!!
canopfor on November 5, 2008 at 12:57 PM
Yikes, if much of Portland is left to be counted, that does not bode well.
firepilot on November 5, 2008 at 12:57 PM
True about Multnomah, but Deschutes and Jackson only have 59% reporting and they are definitely red…
unrealcitizen on November 5, 2008 at 12:57 PM
Brownback is retiring so he is gone.
Arlen Spector is a survivor no matter what else is said. I dont like him but he can win in PA a place that is hostile to the GOP.
MCain will get a sympathy vote the next election. He did serve his country so I have no problems keeping him in the senate. Just wish we could tape his mouth shut.
Mel Martinez was put in charge of teh RNC and is a major cause of this failure. If the Florida GOP doesnt boot him I dont know what else to say.
Of the democrats I think Blauche Lincoln and Harry Reid are the easiest targets for us. Harry Reid’s scalp would be huge.
William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 12:57 PM
Oh, and my compliments to the people who voted for the Constitution Party candidate, who is getting five percent of the vote. They have probably succeeded in ensuring that Oregon is represented by two extremely left-wing Democratic senators. Good job!
Realist on November 5, 2008 at 12:58 PM
May I nominate Michael Steele to take on Barbara Mikulski in MD?
BitterClinger on November 5, 2008 at 12:59 PM
Lindsey Grahamn, one of the biggest RINO’s and amnesty supporters there is. He supports gun rights, but that’s all I can say for him.
tre on November 5, 2008 at 1:00 PM
Portland and Eugene still not finished counting and that is where all the liberal Democrats live.
Smith is probably gone, too, but then Gordon Smith is a RINO.
albill on November 5, 2008 at 1:00 PM
So what makes you the “real” Republican? I guess you think you do better with an even narrower minority? You really need to start learning to respect other people’s point of view or you will be, we all will be, in the minority for a long long time.
Reagan built coalitions of people with differing views on issues. This is no way to win back power.
petunia on November 5, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Not surprisingly, Merkley’s entire campaign was Smith=Bush.
Christien on November 5, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Well,its time for a new base of operations!
Welcome to upper Canada,and Alaska!
AlaskaCan!haha.:)
canopfor on November 5, 2008 at 1:01 PM
Did I miss anyone?
HornetSting on Nov 5,2008 at 12:51PM.
HornetSting: Eagleburger?
canopfor on November 5, 2008 at 1:04 PM
RINO or not; Smith could still help block the coming uber-liberal legislation, instead of Merkley who would push them. So, all things being equal, its better if he wins. Got to be optimistic
unrealcitizen on November 5, 2008 at 1:05 PM
I live here in the Portland area. Smith is only a Republican because of social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. Good win for Oregon.
romanianhacker on November 5, 2008 at 1:06 PM
I wish, she is entrenched in a way that is difficult to understand if you’ve never lived in MD. Its so democratci controlled in MD that I almost registered as a Dem when I lived there so I could vote against Mikulski and Sarbanes (Though Sarbanes is now retired).
This is actually something that my father had done years ago. He has essentially been living operation chaos for 35 years, vote D in primary, vote R in general.
Nothing works. There are only small sections of MD that consistently runs red.
Marine_Bio on November 5, 2008 at 1:06 PM
Gordon Smith=Rino
Arlen Specter=Rino
Mitt Romney=Rino
Harry Reid=Idiot
They are all Mormon. I thought Mormons suppose to be conservative?
portlandon on November 5, 2008 at 1:09 PM
The Senate results were a huge bright spot for the GOP.
Sarah Palin saved America once again. By helping win the senate seat in Alaska (believe me, it would have been lost if she weren’t on the ticket), we can block any Obama initiatives. If current results stand, there is plenty of margin even when discounting for the RINOS.
Norwegian on November 5, 2008 at 12:48 PM
patrick neid on November 5, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Boy I got that backwards…
patrick neid on November 5, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Grahamn just won reelection last night to another 6 year term.
William Amos on November 5, 2008 at 1:12 PM
Arlen Specter is not Mormon.
firepilot on November 5, 2008 at 1:12 PM
By MOVING people to the Right.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 5, 2008 at 1:13 PM
This race in Northern California is pretty close, Tom McClintock is a solid conservative
U.S. House, 4th District
Name Party Votes %
Tom McClintock Republican 155,771 50.1%
Charlie Brown Democratic 155,320 49.9%
borg on November 5, 2008 at 1:13 PM
Yeah, tre, but Lindsey just got 6 more years last night. We have to wait until 2014.
HornetSting on November 5, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Well your own post explains Reid. Romney and Specter are conservative enough to not generate immediate revulsion, though I dont know Gordon Smith well enough to say for certain.
Specter is electable in PA, which is a really good case in point. MURTHA. Enough said, I just don’t understand it at all.
Marine_Bio on November 5, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Sorry to break the news, but if you look at the counties where there are votes outstanding it’s pretty obvious that Smith is toast. 70% of the votes are in statewide, but only 44% from Multnomah (Portland) and 43% from Lane (Eugene) where he is getting killed. Unless he has tons of absentee ballots outstanding he’ll lose by more than 50,000 votes.
BuzzCrutcher on November 5, 2008 at 1:17 PM
Thank you, John McCain. That is what lost us the election last night.
Now, Reagan built coalitions by presenting good, sound conservative values. He didn’t lean to the moderate or even mod/liberal views.
How much did McCain’s hispandering with amnesty help him with the Hispanic vote?
If you cannot grasp that, I cannot help you.
HornetSting on November 5, 2008 at 1:17 PM
Hey, I’m out by PDX, come over and have a beer or 2, you’ll feel better…………………….
…..but you better hurry cause I’m drinking like a fish.
LOL
Old Hippie Vet on November 5, 2008 at 1:18 PM
It liks like Chamblis is going to have to go into a runoff, as he is about 12,000 votes shy of having a majority.
oddball on November 5, 2008 at 1:20 PM
In previous elections, before Smith got wobbly on Iraq and before he got all lovey-dovey with Obama, he won by larger margins.
The lesson is that Republicans don’t win by
playing footsie with demsreaching across the aisle.innominatus on November 5, 2008 at 1:22 PM
The problem is that once Republicans get in office, they are open to defeat immediately. Democrat incumbents, on the other hand, take a sex scandal to dislodge.
Speedwagon82 on November 5, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Rather than blasting away RINO hunting, I’m interested to hear of names of “true” Republicans to replace Smith.
Christien on November 5, 2008 at 1:27 PM
Re. Old Hippie Vet
No worries; I’d bring my own. Case might about do it…
Re. Innominatus
Rush been hammering that exact point for a lot of minutes now. Conservatism wins; being defeatist and weak spined loses.
unrealcitizen on November 5, 2008 at 1:28 PM
Cap’n:
I’m not sure you have the final numbers. Currently CNN has:
Smith 596,154 48%
Merkley 586,731 47%
With 70% reporting. I can’t see the link you put to the Sec’y of state site (Internal Server error). I’m guessing that with their vote by mail paper ballots they’re still counting. I don’t know where the rest of the ballots come from, but with 30% left this could still fade to blue
Buckland on November 5, 2008 at 1:36 PM
97045
MB4 on November 5, 2008 at 1:38 PM
In Oregon, I don’t believe there are any and Smith was certainly better on “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” than you-know-who.
MB4 on November 5, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Live boy, dead girl. No, even that doesn’t always do it.
MB4 on November 5, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Gordon Smith is cousins with Mark and Tom Udall, new Dem senators from CO and NM respectively. They are all probably cut from the same cloth, moderate, decent men. Maybe the 3 of them can counteract some of the Reid/Pelosi moonbatism.
Common Sense on November 5, 2008 at 1:43 PM
Via RedState
This is an extremely convenient time to experience a flood
broker1 on November 5, 2008 at 1:51 PM
Particularly as it has not been raining that much in the Portland area.
MB4 on November 5, 2008 at 1:58 PM
Yeah, a flood of votes from Oregonians who actually prefer splitting their senate delegation between the two major parties. That kind of flood.
Christien on November 5, 2008 at 2:03 PM
MB4, -015.
Christien on November 5, 2008 at 2:09 PM
I’ll say. But I live in King County, Washington. Let’s just say I’m jaded.
capitalist piglet on November 5, 2008 at 2:22 PM
Crap. Dino is conceding.
capitalist piglet on November 5, 2008 at 2:23 PM
In red county California, we’re usually swamped by blue county votes. Oregon seems to have a better record of resisting things like tax increases. Can some Oregonians here tell me why that is?
Feedie on November 5, 2008 at 2:26 PM
Re. Feedie
Usually because outside of PDX and Eugene Oregon is pretty red.
unrealcitizen on November 5, 2008 at 2:33 PM
Thanks. You must have a better balance of urban vs. rural than CA.
Feedie on November 5, 2008 at 2:39 PM
Lovely. I see that once again we are more concerned about “hunting RINOs” than rebuilding the party.
I expect Arlen Specter to retire. I doubt he will be reelected if he runs, and there will be pressure for him to get out of the way. The only Republican that stands a chance of winning the seat is AG Tom Corbett, who was reelected last night. Or possibly Tom Ridge, but of course he is just another RINO so we can’t have that. Let’s drag Pat Toomey out of whatever asylum he is in and run him again.
Jim Bunning and Kit Bond will probably retire as well, and should. We will probably lose both of those seats unless Matt Blunt runs in Missouri. Dems will probably run Ben Chandler in Kentucky and he will win easily. He is a very conservative Democrat. Unlike Republicans, Democrats have decided they like having a majority and are not so worried about ideological purity in their ranks.
rockmom on November 5, 2008 at 2:40 PM
I like to think (hope) so, but these days its getting more and more like CA. Maybe cause Californians are moving into metro-Oregon…I really don’t know.
unrealcitizen on November 5, 2008 at 2:40 PM
portlandon,
Specter is not Mormon. Utah’s 2 senators, Bennett & Hatch, are pretty reliable conservatives. Utah is a very conservative so I think the state matters more than the religion e.g. Smith is more liberal because he represents a blue state. I’ve found that Mormons from the NE and Cali are usually more liberal than ones from Utah (like me). We Mormons are not monolithic.
drflykilla on November 5, 2008 at 2:48 PM
Gordon Smith=Rino
Arlen Specter=Rino
Mitt Romney=Rino
Harry Reid=Idiot
They are all Mormon. I thought Mormons suppose to be conservative?
portlandon on November 5, 2008 at 1:09 PM
The only morons in the USA are stupid left wing liberals.
pukara61 on November 5, 2008 at 2:57 PM
I forgot to add that Specter’s religion is Judaism.
drflykilla on November 5, 2008 at 3:03 PM
Hey! I move to a far-left whacko state…. And my vote finally may have mattered in a general election. That’s a minor consolation, considering the fact that the guy’s a RINO and there’s going to be a Marxist in the White House, but a prize nontheless.
Sign of the Dollar on November 5, 2008 at 3:20 PM
They’re not welcome on our presidential tickets or as the face of the party, but they’re a lot better than liberal Democrats. I don’t think you can ask for much more from Oregon.
Sign of the Dollar on November 5, 2008 at 3:24 PM
Wow. Having lived in one of the most liberal areas of Oregon, i’m both surprised and elated. I hope it holds through the inevitable challenges.
shooten on November 5, 2008 at 3:46 PM
Big tents are only good for growing astroturf.
Angry Dumbo on November 5, 2008 at 4:43 PM
And as if to just personally fuck with Ed’s head, Merkley pulls ahead with 76% in.
Typhonsentra on November 5, 2008 at 6:48 PM
Why would we count Liebermann? He’s as liberal as they come. He’s a nice guy, but he’ll vote liberal because he believes in liberalism, even if his party disowns him. He’s not going to start voting for republican causes, other than military ones perhaps.
xblade on November 5, 2008 at 9:18 PM