Tarrance Group projection: Obama by 2 nationwide
posted at 12:55 pm on November 4, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Interesting. If the Tarrance Group projection holds up, we could have the scenario where Barack Obama wins the popular vote and John McCain wins the Electoral College — the second time in three elections where that may be true. Tarrance sees the breakout as follows, once they allocate the undecideds:
Obama: 50.2%
McCain: 48.3%
Given the enormous popular-vote leads Obama will get in California, New York, Illinois, and other second-tier states, that leaves a lot of play in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and others. It assumes undecideds will break sharply to McCain — and the undecideds are a significantly higher percentage in these states than in others.
This is very interesting, considering the generally pro-Obama bump in most of the final polls. … I think the McCain folks would prefer that to most of the other projections. It would mean that my projection from last night overestimated Obama.
Will that be ugly? You bet. We’ll see if we have another 2000 ahead of us.
Update: Second time in three elections, not years. Sorry about that.
Blowback
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DAWN OF THE FINAL DAY!!
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 12:56 PM
That would be anything but ugly, Ed. That would be beautiful.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 12:57 PM
Anidotal story from me
Just got back from voting here in ohio. My countie was one of the few that voted for Kerry over Bush in 2004.
Lots of Obama signs out but seen a few McCain. This area is more blue than red so not a bad sign. There is a local professor from a nearby college with a gigantic “OBAMA” sign that can almost be seen from orbit. Add that to the morons down the street with the “Jesus was acommunity organizer” spew.
Meet outside near the poling place by a GOP rep handing out a republican ballot. Thanked them for that.
Got into the polling place. Busiest I have ever seen it. Still took me only 15 minutes of waiting to cast my vote and few came in after I did.
Thing that struck me most that most of the voters there were older people. There was only 1 person there under the age of 40.
So will say this area was still busier than normal but still very light and not much a sign of any younger voters.
William Amos on November 4, 2008 at 12:57 PM
Vote, pray, and encourage others to do the same.
D0WNT0WN on November 4, 2008 at 12:57 PM
i think you mean second time in three “elections” Ed …
and given the “barry correction factor” between polls and actual results — I’m pretty sure that means John winds up with over 50% anywho!
:-)
Buckaroo on November 4, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Agree. I don’t care HOW McCain wins, I just want him to win, so we can say “Bye, bye, Barry!”
duanesm on November 4, 2008 at 12:58 PM
If that happens, Detroit will burn. I will gladly take that trade-off.
Plus, the insurance companies will have to reimburse about $75 to $80, tops.
Cruel? Mean? Yup. But true.
H/T to Glen Beck.
PimFortuynsGhost on November 4, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Barry needs to win by 3% in the popular vote to win the EC…
phreshone on November 4, 2008 at 12:59 PM
With all the voter fraud, we might now the outcome for weeks it seems, but this is nevertheless very interesting indeed.
Kevin in Washington State on November 4, 2008 at 12:59 PM
The left will implode and create a black hole and we will all be sucked into it!
*drinks*
*drinks more*
HoosierCon on November 4, 2008 at 1:00 PM
I keep hearing about the closeness of this race, but I think it will hinge on that “light” that Obama joked about.
God alone knows how this will turn out – personally, I think it will be a landslide for McCain. Dark Barry is just too scarey for America at this time.
kybowexar on November 4, 2008 at 1:00 PM
If the media has to call OH early for McCAin they will be so disappointed.
Theworldisnotenough on November 4, 2008 at 1:01 PM
I can’t type it seems…
With all the voter fraud, we might not know the outcome for weeks it seems, but this is nevertheless very interesting indeed.
Kevin in Washington State on November 4, 2008 at 1:02 PM
What are the odds running on 269-269 when all is said and done?
alchemist17 on November 4, 2008 at 1:02 PM
Palomino!
jawbone on November 4, 2008 at 1:02 PM
VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!
Time to defeat liberalism…again!!
opa-opa on November 4, 2008 at 1:02 PM
I just finished reading a post on Tim McGuire’s “Just One Minute” and he reminded his readers that there is no such thing as national popular vote. We have 50 presidential races and the winner is the one who wins a majority of the electoral votes. National polls are meaningless and the election will be won or last in just a few states. Perhaps we could have an electoral reform that does away with the national totals.
jerryofva on November 4, 2008 at 1:03 PM
When this day is over,Liberals will be stunned!!
Republican voter Shock and Voting Awe baby!
Victory!!!! TEAM Maverick/SarahCuda!
canopfor on November 4, 2008 at 1:04 PM
If McCain wins, this day will forever be known as the
“The Day of the Great Head Exploding”
You will tell your children and grandchildren, and those children yet to be born, of all the heads that spontaneously exploded on this day. And when that child looks up to you and asks, “Was it all messy, Grandpa?”, you will be able to answer,” No, my boy, in fact, on the Day of The Great Head Exploding, we saw very little brains about. Just exploded heads.”
keep the change on November 4, 2008 at 1:04 PM
Man, I love the electoral college vote. The Founding Fathers were geniuses. To foresee the need to dodge a bullet like Obama during uncertain times is, well, “Gold, Jerry, pure gold.”
BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 1:05 PM
1.9% popular vote doesn’t do it for Obama. Sounds like 2000 election again. I can live with that.
Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Alchemist:
A tie goes to the House which means Obama gets elected.
jerryofva on November 4, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Wow. If that happens, i will get into the closet, in the fetal position for a month until things settle down.
cblesz on November 4, 2008 at 1:05 PM
That is the reason that it would be better for America for McCain to win in a landslide. America needs a definitive result, not a brokered one or one that is determined by fraud.
technopeasant on November 4, 2008 at 1:05 PM
It all hinges on turnout. Historically younger voters cannot be counted on to vote so if enough older people who still think logically vote, we should be ok.
saltydogg14 on November 4, 2008 at 1:06 PM
“There is no such thing as public opinion. There is only published opinion. ”
Winston Churchill
the_nile on November 4, 2008 at 1:06 PM
I voted early this morning in Virginia. Turnout was heavy by 6:30 am.
Lots of my neighbors showing up to support McCain.
FMAC on November 4, 2008 at 1:06 PM
I’d rather see a few “riots” here than see Iran get nukes!
If you haven’t already voted…GET OUT AND VOTE!
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:07 PM
I think Geraghty’s projections from yesterday were good. I’m worrying about Indiana and PA, but it’ll be close.
Can us hayseed gun clingers cancel out the, ahem, “GOTV” efforts in Lake County and Philadelphia County? We’ll see.
forest on November 4, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Hurray for gridlock!
huckleberryfriend on November 4, 2008 at 1:07 PM
oh, i also want John McCain to win tonight so i can watch grant park literally expolde on my televison as i munch on popcorn and laugh my ass off!!!!
Nuge em on November 4, 2008 at 1:08 PM
It is not enough to just defeat Obama in the election.
After we defeat him we need to immediately bring charges against him for voter fraud and bribery and put him in prison.
The only place he will be spreading islam is in the prison system…not the bully pulpit of the U.S. presidential office.
SaintOlaf on November 4, 2008 at 1:08 PM
cblesz on November 4, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Get a gun today..while you still can!
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:08 PM
Gird your loins!!!
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 1:08 PM
William Amos,
I am glad to hear what you said about young people not showing up. I noticed the same thing, here in St. Louis County. Several other people here have noticed the same thing. If the young don’t turn out, it has to be good for McCain. Most of the twenty-somethings are for Obama.
Star20 on November 4, 2008 at 1:08 PM
eh, in a majorly liberal workplace I am running into some folks who are voting Bob Barr just to throw the vote someplace other to Bommie or Macky. The republicans are silent runners here but am in a blue state so it doesnt matter much anyway.
johnnyU on November 4, 2008 at 1:09 PM
sweetness…
gatorboy on November 4, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Man, I already need a drink! Damn this “working for a living” thing…
Karen_VA on November 4, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Great FOUR MORE YEARS of the democrats whining that we stole the election….
Good show. Send them a vat of cheese.
HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Ugly is good, I’m a Marine, I can handle ugly. I like ugly, I prefer ugly to marxism.
Alden Pyle on November 4, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Sounds good to me. I welcome the chance to battle these maggots and put then down for good.
Let LA, Detroit, Philly, Chigago, Cleveland, and any other pathetic city burn itself to death. I’m all for it.
Gregor on November 4, 2008 at 1:10 PM
BTW anyone know what’s the difference between their “Tarrance” and “Lake” projections?
opa-opa on November 4, 2008 at 1:10 PM
Alden Pyle on November 4, 2008 at 1:09 PM
Go Ugly…fight on!!!
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Another 2000 in front of us? Bring it on!
*hands Grue a snack*
Sarjex on November 4, 2008 at 1:11 PM
I just returned from voting in Sunnyvale, CA. The polling place was almost empty at 9 AM (no line at all), and they have a chart where they mark off how many people have voted in that precinct: I was around #120. This isn’t the most activist part of Northern California (we’re almost an hour from San Francisco and Berkeley), but the lack of turnout surprised me. Unless absentee voting has been larger than usual in this area, Obama’s numbers might not be as padded as we think from blue states.
simons on November 4, 2008 at 1:11 PM
Hey, whatever pisses the Democraps off the most. I mean it. I’ve got friends and family that I have to stay away from after this election for fear I’ll slap the sh!t outta their libtarded heads.
FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 1:12 PM
It’s beginning to rain in Philly, which may or may not discourage some voters. A bit of a line at my suburban polling place this morning, but the weather was ok.
Wethal on November 4, 2008 at 1:12 PM
I’m with you, let them burn their own neighborhoods, having spent time in each of the above listed cities it would be the best thing that could happen to most of them anyway.
Alden Pyle on November 4, 2008 at 1:12 PM
You know, I feel different today than I did 4 years ago about the election. Four years ago, I was very nervous, that Kerry would win, but I feel a steady calm about today’s election. I have said all along that I do feel that McCain is going to win 303-235, and today, I feel exactly the same way.
ConservativePartyNow on November 4, 2008 at 1:13 PM
I could see this happening. But you know what? Hillary won the popular vote in the primary didn’t she? Weren’t all sorts of voters in Michigan and Florida ignored? Sounds like poetic justice to me.
Terrye on November 4, 2008 at 1:13 PM
well dont count the shenanigans out yet
A federal Appeals vcourt just ruled that its “Unconstitutional” for a state to require that voters have to prove residency to cast a vote
William Amos on November 4, 2008 at 1:13 PM
Yes, keep bribing the Grue. Works much better than lanterns and flashlights. ;)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:13 PM
ConservativePartyNow on November 4, 2008 at 1:13 PM
Bless you…may you always be right! I feel it too!
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:14 PM
I think we may also hear the “Brown Sound” from South Park once the final votes are in. /sarc
journeyscarab on November 4, 2008 at 1:14 PM
My Motto towards Democraps:
F*ck ‘em and feed ‘em fish heads.
FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Where are those aliens from Independance Day when you need them
ConservativePartyNow on November 4, 2008 at 1:14 PM
Not funny. I’m close enough to worry about fallout.
ElectricPhase on November 4, 2008 at 1:15 PM
I went down to my polling place prepared for a long wait. Coffee, IPOD, newspaper (plus pen for the crossword puzzle)… all of which were left in the car when I saw there were about 10 people there (not including poll workers who outnumbered us!)
btw: I live in a liberal part of Barryland where we didn’t even have a “local” race today because all of my state senators and legislators (“D”s) ran unopposed so were declared winners in September.
HawaiiLwyr on November 4, 2008 at 1:16 PM
Georgia has the I.D. law.. had to show mine…it’ll be interesting to see how many problems we have and of what kind.
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:17 PM
thanks for saying that, it needs to be voiced.
LibertyBoyNYC on November 4, 2008 at 1:17 PM
I think those numbers are backwards.
Its not over until all 110% of the ballots are counted I tell ya.
johnnyU on November 4, 2008 at 1:18 PM
Ohio has ID law and I had to show my ID as well.
William Amos on November 4, 2008 at 1:18 PM
I think those numbers are backwards.
Its not over until all 110% of the ballots are counted I tell ya.
johnnyU on November 4, 2008 at 1:18 PM
lol….
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:19 PM
Zero.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:19 PM
I am impressed by the optimism and good spirits I see here. God I’m proud of my friends at Hot Air.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:20 PM
I would worry regardless of a McCain win or lose. There will be rioting tonight, it just depends what kind–celebratory overturning cars, burning, and some looting, or prolonged nasty violence.
I would honestly not be near any large democratic strongholds tonight.
Enoxo on November 4, 2008 at 1:21 PM
I live near UCR (University of Riverside) in California. There were only a few people in line.
I was privately chuckling to myself to hear and see the poll workers point to the “DUH” line for all the “Young Students” who failed to register. They were given the option to fill out the “Supplemental” ballot.
If this is a national trend, we will have “MAVERICUDA” victory!!
I wonder if “Moose stew” will be added to the White House menu??
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 1:21 PM
What’s that smell? Is it… could it be… the stink of a MOBY?
Cut it out.
Gilda on November 4, 2008 at 1:21 PM
A vat of government cheese.
If Senator Government does win this thing, I’ll be requesting submissions for my new book project: “101 Uses for Government Cheese!”
forest on November 4, 2008 at 1:21 PM
I went to vote in Chesapeake VA.
Took about an hour.
There were some volunteers from the O Campaign.
They had some water and crackers. I thought they were going to give some out to those in line.
They didn’t.
What happened to spread the wealth man?
I want my crackers!
Oops. The word cracker is not to be interpreted as a racial term.
jimbodeano67 on November 4, 2008 at 1:21 PM
Come on, Nuge em. No need for stuff like that. There are ways to say things without tinging it with racist-sounding stuff. Keep it decent…please???
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Someone needs banned.
Enoxo on November 4, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Black Panther “Security” patrols stationed at polling places in Philly – http://tinyurl.com/58vcrg
timinnc on November 4, 2008 at 1:22 PM
With a primer…”101 freedoms you voted against, you stupid sheep”
HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 1:23 PM
I just had an interesting encounter with an older woman while I was out walking my dogs; She insisted that Bill o’reilly had endorsed Obama last night, and this had caused about a half dozen of her bridge friends to vote for Obama. Anyone else hear this about O’Reilly? I’d love to have yet another reason to dislike him.
anniekc on November 4, 2008 at 1:23 PM
Thats why the EC should never be removed because what would happen is the nominees would only campaign in highly populated cities(nyc, chicago, LA, ect…) rather than small towns.
jaboba on November 4, 2008 at 1:23 PM
I trust your architect’s eye :)
San Francisco.
Entelechy on November 4, 2008 at 1:23 PM
Yeppers. It has the unmistakable scent of Moby. Had to repeat it–in bold–when no one called him on the first one.
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 1:23 PM
When we win this race, I am inviting you to Vegas baby!!!
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 1:24 PM
New Hampshire lawsuit cookin’ already. Republican observers being blocked from viewing new registrations or something…
What’s the over-under on the number of lawsuits?
forest on November 4, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 12:56 PM
Good to see you back….were you off running some psy ops?
t on November 4, 2008 at 1:24 PM
If Mac pulls this out I would suggest exercising your 2nd amendment rights for the near future.
I know I’ll be packing. Legally of course.
FMAC on November 4, 2008 at 1:24 PM
Do…Not…Wish… for exploding heads.
Most of them that have drunk the kool-aid have their heads so far up their butts that the resultant mess would be intolerable.
Yoop on November 4, 2008 at 1:25 PM
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/11/04/breaking-fox-reporting-black-panthers-intimidating-voters-in-philadelphia/
Well, except that the Black Panthers seem to like telling white and other non black voters that, “Black people are going to win this time, no matter what” Neat, huh? This isn’t racist at ALL. Only Fox is reporting, of course.
Mommypundit on November 4, 2008 at 1:25 PM
Sorry, I quit listening when he lost his mind over “talk radio” calling obama a socialist.
Keyser-Soze on November 4, 2008 at 1:26 PM
Support your local gun shop…I stocked up over the weekend on .38 Special +P JHP, .357 Mag JHP, 9mm +P and .223 Rem. I hope my poodle-shooting .223 is up to the task when the Obamanation Apocalypse is upon us. Worst case…claymores, baby! “Front Towards Enemy”…
Flyover Country on November 4, 2008 at 1:26 PM
ManlyRash I read the WHOLE article you posted Toast
It was AWESOME. I finally feel certain about a McCain win. I knew there had to be a trend in the white hot conservative rage I’m witnessing in my friends and family. :)
CambellBrown on November 4, 2008 at 1:27 PM
May we then begin crushing spirits?
greggriffith on November 4, 2008 at 1:28 PM
A Google search on site:hotair.com “nuge em” reveals all. A Moby who signed up just yesterday.
Gilda on November 4, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Repeating to clarify.
Black Panther “Security” patrols stationed at polling places in Philly –
Video: http://tinyurl.com/58vcrg (This isn’t the FOX News clip, this is a youtube clip that a University student took showing one of the black panthers with their nightstick.)
Thanks,
TiminNC
timinnc on November 4, 2008 at 1:29 PM
A McCain win, while the sweetest of wines, would mean kool Aid drinkers burning cities in protest!
I look forward to watching the show!!!
Viper1 on November 4, 2008 at 1:30 PM
Newbie question – what is moby?
nobody wants violence, but some people just look for reasons to cause trouble,
it was sad to see destruction after the phillies won the world series in philadelphia
Gotcha on November 4, 2008 at 1:30 PM
timinnc on November 4, 2008 at 1:29 PM
Are there any police there? Am I asking a really stupid question?
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:30 PM
If by “spy ops” you mean “buried in work”… ;)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:30 PM
We had another open registration? Cool, welcome all the new folks :D Except you new trolls, go away. Seriously, election’s over tomorrow, you have nothing better to do.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:31 PM
Well Obama’s got a cure for that!
highhopes on November 4, 2008 at 1:33 PM
I am new too..can someone tell me how to properly paste a previous comment?
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:33 PM
It MUST BE TRUE! Any negative thing about O’Reilly that you hear has to be true!!!
Why just the other day, I heard that o’Reilly wants to be President Obama’s press secretary!!!!!!!/s
wise_man on November 4, 2008 at 1:33 PM
At my voting place in Los Angeles, turnout was higher than I’ve seen it in four elections.
There were also several people casting “provisional” ballots as their names were not shown on the lists. That is very unusual. Being naturally suspicious where Osama Obama is concerned, I suspect most of them were voting for The Messiah.
No surprise for La-la Land, but I wouldn’t be surprised to find out Obama’s felonious crew was working here, too.
MrScribbler on November 4, 2008 at 1:34 PM
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