Tarrance Group projection: Obama by 2 nationwide
posted at 12:55 pm on November 4, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
Interesting. If the Tarrance Group projection holds up, we could have the scenario where Barack Obama wins the popular vote and John McCain wins the Electoral College — the second time in three elections where that may be true. Tarrance sees the breakout as follows, once they allocate the undecideds:
Obama: 50.2%
McCain: 48.3%
Given the enormous popular-vote leads Obama will get in California, New York, Illinois, and other second-tier states, that leaves a lot of play in states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and others. It assumes undecideds will break sharply to McCain — and the undecideds are a significantly higher percentage in these states than in others.
This is very interesting, considering the generally pro-Obama bump in most of the final polls. … I think the McCain folks would prefer that to most of the other projections. It would mean that my projection from last night overestimated Obama.
Will that be ugly? You bet. We’ll see if we have another 2000 ahead of us.
Update: Second time in three elections, not years. Sorry about that.
Blowback
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NewDayRising already got banned. Only 99 to go.
Entelechy on November 4, 2008 at 1:34 PM
moby (scroll down page) – An insidious and specialized type of left-wing troll who visits blogs and impersonates a conservative for the purpose of either spreading false rumors intended to sow dissension among conservative voters, or who purposely posts inflammatory and offensive comments for the purpose of discrediting the blog in question.
The term is derived from the name of the liberal musician Moby, who famously suggested in February of 2004 that left-wing activists engage in this type of subterfuge…
More at the link.
Gilda on November 4, 2008 at 1:34 PM
An ugly win is still a win.
I don’t really care why people vote against Obamacles, as long as they do.
n0doz on November 4, 2008 at 1:35 PM
It’s times like these that I’m happy to be living on a military base. I figure the gate guards will at least slow the rioters down some.
highhopes on November 4, 2008 at 1:35 PM
Ditto. And you required to sign a book that contains an image of your signature. The guy in front of me had a license address different from his registration address, but he brought a copy of a recent phone bill. The pollworkers seemed to handle it well.
My only gripe is that a whiny Obama supporter complained about my McCain-Palin cap–so I had to take it off and put it in my coat. Oh well.
BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 1:36 PM
This is a Moby.
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 1:36 PM
I’m hoping with all these polls that continue to show Obama winning that some won’t bother to go vote.
moonsbreath on November 4, 2008 at 1:36 PM
What will be the carbon footprint of Compton, Inglewood, and Wats going up in smoke tonight? Think the nut-filled, LA liberal greenies out there will oppose the terrible environmental fallout of a BO defeat?
jbh45 on November 4, 2008 at 1:36 PM
What would cause folks to vote for McCain? Telling them Obama was a shoe in. Team Obama, might have over played their “Obama Coronation” tactic. Lots of Americans don’t like to be told, who they are going to vote for. The rest who do like to be told, who they were going to vote for, were going to vote for Obama anyway:)
Dr Evil on November 4, 2008 at 1:37 PM
“Are there any police there? Am I asking a really stupid question?
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:30 PM”
No, it’s not a stupid question.
According to Foxnews, the police escorted the guy with the nightstick from the premises.
Here’s the fox news clip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCeD1RcJjAg
timinnc on November 4, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Doesn’t surprise me about CA, it really doesn’t have any affect on the outcome of the election. It is a foregone conclusion it will go Obama.
You do have the gay marriage proposition don’t you, that should drive someone to the polls.
right2bright on November 4, 2008 at 1:38 PM
“Perhaps we could have an electoral reform that does away with the national totals.”
What we need to do is go to a system like this:
A candidate gets one electoral vote for every Congressional district that they win. A candidate gets two electoral votes for winning the state overall. In that kind of division of electoral votes several things happen: A: rural congressional districts get their voices heard and their candidate gets some electoral votes besides just having the major cities decide the whole vote for the state. B: the electoral vote would more closely match the national popular vote. With today’s configuration, if Obama carries a state by one vote, he gets all the ECVs. The ECV count in no way mirrors the popular vote for the state. It also allows third party candidates to get some electoral votes for carrying districts instead of having to carry an entire state.
Also, corrupt political machines in places like Philadelphia and Chicago couldn’t sway the vote for the entire state more than two ECVs. Their impact of cheating would be limited to their own districts. Look at a county map of Illinois. Most of the state voted Republican but the Democrats carry Chicago so they get the entire state disenfranchising the people in the rest of the state.
crosspatch on November 4, 2008 at 1:38 PM
If you were able to cast your vote this year, please remember to thank a veteran.
Christien on November 4, 2008 at 1:38 PM
timinnc on November 4, 2008 at 1:37 PM
Thanks.. can wtch links or Tv now… I can’t believe i am doing this and icing cakes at the same time…I can multi-task!
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:39 PM
Apparetly, I can’t type as well…sorry
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:39 PM
If there is an EC tie and it goes to the house each state only gets 1 vote. So how many state delegations will the Demos control in the new house?
rotaryu on November 4, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Highlight what you want to copy. Hit COPY. Go to your comment block. Click “quote.” Paste in what you copied.” Hit “quote” again to close the quote. OR Copy/Paste in the block, highlight it, and hit “quote” to do it all at once.
Then double-space to add your comments, eg. how much you admire ManlyRash’s optimism, Gilda’s mad photoshop fu, etc.
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Our family mailed our votes in two weeks ago when we saw the long lines in Gwinnett County. Funny thing, on the mailin ballot, we had to write-in our driver’s license number. My sister lives in DeKalb County and her form didn’t ask for a driver’s license number or SS#.
moonsbreath on November 4, 2008 at 1:41 PM
I love Las Vegas – been there several times; the last time was a doozy. Fortunately, the restraining order has been lifted and I am once again permitted within the city limits.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:41 PM
Thank you… I agree with you about ManlyRash and Gilda:)
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Like so: http://i490.photobucket.com/albums/rr262/towash/mccaintrumankm0.gif
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:42 PM
I am new at this site. Was grateful that registration opened up yesterday. Have been reading comments here for a few weeks. I want to give a shoutout to ManlyRash for his constant encouraging and positive attitude. Well done.
ICBM on November 4, 2008 at 1:44 PM
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:44 PM
It would be so exciting to see John McCain prove them wrong again. But I won’t be able to celebrate if innocent people get hurt. Big cities might seem like huge blue monsters to conservatives, but there ARE good people living in cities–including some of our own friends and family. So I’m not hoping for riots in Detroit or Chicago, or anywhere else.
Dee2008 on November 4, 2008 at 1:44 PM
McCain wins by less than 10 EVs, Obama takes the popular vote, Dems in Congress refuse to seat the Pennsylvania delegation, claiming vote fraud, election goes to Obama . . .
daryl_herbert on November 4, 2008 at 1:44 PM
No lectures here, I appreciate your passion, but please take that back. I was here during the L.A. riots. It’s a very disruptive & frightening scene and it took years for small businesses to get back on their feet.
We have some strong conservatives doing a good job here @ KABC such as Al Rantel, Larry Elder & Tammy Bruce. Dr. Mark Levin is my true hero and we rely on his nightly lectures as well. Their station is in the heart of the Crenshaw district and will be at risk if all hell broke lose.
I know you didn’t literally mean what you said. I just thought you outta know.
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 1:45 PM
It would appear that Allah just squarshed Nuge Em. Another troll bites the dust.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:45 PM
You too Grue:)
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Heh.
petefrt on November 4, 2008 at 1:45 PM
Interesting fantasy, DH. Reality will be much more depressing for Mr. Obama.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:46 PM
That was quick.
*pokes corpse* Can I have it, Allah?
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:46 PM
D’aww, thanks :)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:46 PM
If these numbers are near accurate then let the rioting begin. Whenever the Bradley effect is raised, Democrats have been quick to say it will be negated by the youth vote being so strong for Obama. The problem for Obama is that A) The youth vote is always exaggerated and B)No poll takes into account the number of people who say they will vote for Obama but change their minds because of race.
I’m still not feeling so good about this but these numbers are interesting.
Metal Playgrounds
grdred944 on November 4, 2008 at 1:47 PM
I was there too, my husband and I were in West Hollywood…way too close for comfort. L.A. can be really, really scary! One of teh reasons I left 3 years ago…
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:47 PM
Yes. But I worry about his health. He appears to be an emotional eater.
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Hail fellow and well met! Between you and me, my original screen name was going to be SLBM-MRV but when the nice gentlement from the Pentagon stopped by, I changed it to Manly Rash.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Actually, he’s a moonbat eater. I keed, I keed…
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:49 PM
on November 4, 2008 at 1:48 PM
So am I …let him eat cake..today I have Italian Creme…yummmmm
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:49 PM
Dude, I want McCain to win as much as anyone, but the idea of people getting satisfaction from the potential of riots and cities burning is disgusting. Is that really what you want? I happen to live in the NY metro area and there are many cities close by: Bridgeport, Newark, White Plains, the Bronx, Paterson etc that all have large African American populations. The idea of those cities going up in flames disturbs me immensely. And it should disturb everyone of us. Do you have any idea what the ramifications of this is? If not think about it.
joepub on November 4, 2008 at 1:52 PM
Gentlement=Feds in nice threads
/
Christien on November 4, 2008 at 1:52 PM
There’s not a lot of content in Moonbat… it’s mostly a thin skin with some flavor, and hot air inside.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:52 PM
As nutritionally complete as a rice cake.
HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 1:53 PM
*channeling Reb Tevye*
Beth Baker, Beth Baker, bake me a cake
Bake it layers high, Devil’s Food deep
Sweet chocolate frosting, oh how I shake
So moist and delicious it makes me weep
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 1:55 PM
I don’t know. If you sing it, it sounds like Barney Frank with a sinus infection.
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Devil food is my most poular..I add a layer of dark chocolate ganache on top…
When McCain Palin wins..it’s cake for you all!
(Big piece for ManlyRash :)
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:57 PM
Okay, now the thought of this has changed my mind…
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 1:58 PM
You don’t eat it for the nutrition ;)
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:59 PM
Wow, appetite killer.
*lurks*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:59 PM
My whole day is wrecked…at least i won’t snack so much…
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 2:01 PM
My girlie figure thanks you,hoosiermama!
beththebaker on November 4, 2008 at 2:01 PM
This is good news, but I’m curious to see what happens tonight. Dear God, please help McCain/Palin win!
Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 2:09 PM
The ELECTORAL vote is ALL THAT COUNTS.
Let the
riotsparty begin….Lockstein13 on November 4, 2008 at 2:10 PM
I’m in Ohio and my address changed so I had to show my card that shows that I changed my address with the BMV and sign also.
MobileVideoEngineer on November 4, 2008 at 2:13 PM
In all seriousness, I have been praying for several months. Not necessarily for a McCain win, but more along the lines of “Let us please pick the best man for the job.” In the past three I’ve come to believe the requests are one and the same, but I prefer the latter wording, leaving the judgement of who’s the better option in the hands of the Big Guy.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 2:14 PM
No no no!
I’ll be Allah now:
IT IS ALL HOPELESS.
MCCAIN DOESN’T HAVE A CHANCE.
IT’S ALL OVER.
FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 2:16 PM
Perhaps if YOU sing it. If I sing it, I sound like Robert Preston in The Music Man.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 2:16 PM
You are VERY popular Mr. MR. Check out the comments on the newbie registration link (including mine).
Don’t know what you do for a living, regardless, I think you should add PHD to the end of your name. You helped alot of stressed out insomniacs pull through many-a-night.
Thank you sir.
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 2:16 PM
*eyes glaze over; drools like Homer Simpson*
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 2:17 PM
I don’t think Obama will even win popular vote when you take into effect the PUMA’s voting for McCain/Palin. There are no polls that reflect their massive numbers. They have been completely ignored.
southpaw64 on November 4, 2008 at 2:17 PM
SWEETS 4 THE SWEET!!
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 2:20 PM
I saw them. The spiral cut honey hams go out tomorrow via UPS.
I’m a stay-at-home curmudgeon. Full disclosure: I despise children – even my own – and small animals, especially squirrels. I live off the insurance money I got after I poisoned my first wife. I’m also a Leo and I like romantic dinners and long, twilight walks on the beach.
I am your humble servant.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 2:22 PM
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 1:40 PM
Like so: http://i490.photobucket.com/albums/rr262/towash/mccaintrumankm0.gif
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 1:42 PM
Just FYI, Carbon_Footprint is a MASTER with photobucket. I am familiar with his work on http://www.marklevinfan.com
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 2:29 PM
southpaw64 on November 4, 2008 at 2:17 PM
If the article MR posted earlier is correct, the PUMA’s will pull McPalin over the finish line. Then it’s all eyes on 2010.
kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 2:32 PM
UMMMM….you’re scarring me now. :(
(You had me with the chocolate cake poem).
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 2:34 PM
He got the Chocolate cake recipe from me. Manly is following me around like a puppy on a crusade for treaties.
:) Manly can be a good boy!
upinak on November 4, 2008 at 2:41 PM
Hrmm. Sing about pool, then we’ll see.
*eats*
Grue in the Attic on November 4, 2008 at 2:42 PM
I think Obama has as much chance of being president as Slim Pickens has of being the new pope. That would be Pope Slim II.
Lincoln Cadillac on November 4, 2008 at 2:59 PM
upinak on November 4, 2008 at 2:41 PM
How is it in Alaska today? I bet the state is fired up.
kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 3:08 PM
ROTFLMAO
this is the funniest comment of 2008. I read it out loud to my office, and they all died laughing. Your wit is one for the ages.
Jimmy Doolittle on November 4, 2008 at 3:09 PM
DITTO!!
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 3:12 PM
I’ve enjoyed the interaction you’ve had with MR as well, therefore, I trust you.
A friend of Sarah-Cuda is a friend of mine!! :)
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 3:15 PM
OMG!! I just remembered that I was never asked to identify myself this morning at the voting poll!!!
Shame on me!! I know I would have made an issue of it had I remembered. MY BAD!! :(
Country First on November 4, 2008 at 3:18 PM
Heh. Grue, in the time I’ve been reading, always gotten a huge kick out of your little *eats* tag.
Just wanted to say, “hi.”
;)
RedNewEnglander on November 4, 2008 at 3:32 PM
*sits up and begs* Can I have a treatie now? I’d like the Treaty of Paris. But the Treaty of Ghent will do just as well.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 3:35 PM
Just back from doing the mom stuff I do every day when the kids get off school. Just heard from Hoosierdaddy. Exciting stuff. Here in a conservative pocket of MD, turnout is almost unprecedented. Hearing numbers like 75% of registereds. PLUS: ancedotal: co-worker of DH’s and his wife voting for the first time, along with her father who has always voted Dem. ALL OF THEM FOR McCAIN. I’m feeling a flutter of ManlyRash optimism.
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 3:38 PM
Here you go. Man, I was on fire in this one.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 3:39 PM
anecdotal, too.
hoosiermama on November 4, 2008 at 3:39 PM
The undecides just HAVE to break, oh. . . 70/30 for Mac. I mean, if they haven’t guzzled the Kool-Aid by now, they likely won’t.
RedNewEnglander on November 4, 2008 at 3:41 PM
The Tarrance total-vote projections have been pretty doggone close to reality the last 5 presidential elections.
If this projection is accurate, McCain stands a very good chance of taking this thing in the Electoral College.
Consider: the Tarrance difference of 1.9% (Obama 50.2% vs McCain 48.3%) translates to roughly 2.5 million votes if you are looking at 130 million total votes for president, which we may well see.
The vote advantage for Obama in his 18 or so absolute sure-bet states could be 10 million votes or more. Count another 10 states as close calls with very little vote difference between them, and McCain’s overall vote advantage as maybe 5 or 6 million in the other 22 states and you see what I mean.
The Republican GOTV in the 10 closest-call states will tip this thing and it may well go into McCain’s bag.
Edouard on November 4, 2008 at 3:52 PM
Another reason to ignore exit polling; my coworker just walked in the door after voting down in Union, MO. CNN was at his polling place doing exit polling. Says he, “Let’s put it this way: I don’t like exit polling, and I don’t like CNN….” You do the math. :D
quikstrike98 on November 4, 2008 at 4:08 PM
My polling place– no wait, about 4 others voting there (more workers than voters). Looked like a pretty- “McCainy” crowd, older, decent smelling & undrugged. I was only the 20th voter in my precinct ( afternoon in a suburb of WA, pretty much 55/45 R district). Fingers crossed, but assuming the worst (but Rossi has a chance!)
Security Mom on November 4, 2008 at 4:40 PM
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