Round two: PA, FL, MO; Update: NBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama; Update: Fox too
posted at 8:00 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
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No calls yet in round one as I write this. Florida and Missouri won’t be called until late, either, but if The One’s exit poll margin in Pennsylvania really is 15 points, there’s at least a chance it could go early and puncture Maverick’s balloon.
New general election updates will appear in this thread, but I’ll update the last one with results from those states as they come in.
Update: Bright and early as the clock strikes eight, NBC calls Pennsylvania for The One. Start drinking.
Update: Here’s my map from the predictions thread the other day. To get to a McCain victory, you had to flip 50 electoral votes from blue to red. Try doing it without Pennsylvania.
Update: Steve Kornacki does the math. Barring any very surprising upsets, Obama’s already banked 259 EVs. All he needs is one red state from 2004 worth 11 EVs to turn blue and he’s pretty much set.
Update: ABC also says Obama takes Pennsylvania. And, to add insult to injury, New Hampshire.
Update: Exit poll data from Florida per Marc Ambinder has Obama, amazingly, winning Hispanics by 10 points.
Update: Fox News says Obama wins Pennsylvania, too. And according to the CNN map, with 36 percent reporting, he leads in Florida by more than 200,000 votes.
Update: A McCain aide acknowledges to Ambinder that they need a miracle.
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Yeah, but if they call Texas and Mo and In for Mac those numbers will change too.
Terrye on November 4, 2008 at 8:55 PM
exit polls. (Creepy whisper voice)”I see dead people.”
Buck up FOP’s. (friends of Pooh=Eeyores)
Chewy the Lab on November 4, 2008 at 8:55 PM
I’m sorry every ones goin’ nuts on you Manly
short memories eh?
Bernadette on November 4, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Hold on guys. Barone is questioning the PA call.
SueM on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
WPE’s
unseen on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Yes, I agree, let’s hope the McCain side stays classy too. I want everyone to realize that after Obama wins tonight, that we all need to come together to fix our economy.
Looks like Elizabeth’s Dole calling Hagen “Godless” was a bad idea. Dole is pau.
Uncle_Aina on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Barone – PA to Obama b/c of WPEs
LordMaximus on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
on NJ.COM:
Name Party Votes Vote % Electoral Votes Won
McCain GOP 48,804 53 0
Obama Dem 42,036 46 15
Nader Ind 764 1 0
Barr Ind 181 0 0
So, based on exit polls they are already calling it for Obama but McCain has more real votes. it’s no surprise that NJ will go Obama, but this exit poll stuff is over the top.
worlok on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
WI is still open, not sure about the others.
BadgerHawk on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Could have counted Republican districts (I’m just being cautious).
Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Yeah! Uh….what she said.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Is it too early for GUINNESS call the Chicago Obama mega gathering “The Most B.O. In One Public Place”?
seejanemom on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
And I hope every time they go to mass they pray for the babies they helped murder.
BacaDog on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Barone just convinced us – PA is lost. 1 in 250 chance that Mac can still take it.
jbtripp on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
All I can say is thank GOD for Jim Treacher and ManlyRash.
Love you guys.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Barone just said there’s less than 1/250 chance he’s wrong in Pennsylvania.
I’d love to know where their exit poll precincts are… I’m still skeptical.
ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Hey everyone, man up!! Even the ladeez. Watch it calmly, drink yourself into a stupor, but stop clutching at peoples’ sleeves. We’ll know for sure by tomorrow (probably), all this stuff on now is projected results.
/sheesh
Fortunata on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
I’m watching the returns come in on the actual state websites, and wow…I can’t believe the idiocy of these networks.
I’m with you Manly. Been with you from Day One.
KEEP THE FAITH.
HOLD THE LINE!
duanesm on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
Thank you, I needed that. I had forgotten about Meatballs! Shame on me.
Laura in Maryland on November 4, 2008 at 8:56 PM
1% penn 67% 33%
but what 1%
don’t believe it
late state voters have mostly already voted except on very left coast which is blue anyway
have the faith
I like that canadian map based on actual returns
that fox map is cratering
back off on the projections please
audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Really?
The MSM recanted and admitted they were wrong?
SaintOlaf on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Barone, if you’re right about Pennsylvania, I will find you and kiss you.
Gina on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
So far it’s not a blow out for Obama, no big mandate coming his way (although he’ll probably claim one anyway). The Country is pretty much looking the way it always looks with a few changes here or there maybe.
That’s what I’m cheering for. If he’s going to win (and it’s not over yet), that he’ll win small. But then maybe that’s pathetic too.
Bennett on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
around 11:00 MSM will be saying hold on a sec
unseen on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Is HA’s Manly a hero or a goat?
When McCain wins he can gloat
Come what may
We can surely say
He helped to raise many a boat
Also, listen to profitsbeard and Jim Treacher – they are wise men…most of the time :)
Entelechy on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
I am with you Manly, do not lose heart, never give up, never never never as Churchill said. As it says in the Word, “Behold, I have not given you a spirit of fear, but of love, power and a SOUND mind”.
CreationistConservativeWarrior on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
They called Florida for Gore in 2000. Then Bush. Then Neither.
phronesis on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
yeah… hooray a victory for baby killing… now the catholics are spineless too… deny them all communion… make them feel the pain.
Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
obama doing 10pts worse in ?Va than what exit polls said.
unseen on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
I expected it.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Why is Barone saying one thing and FOX another? Isn’t Barone in charge of FOX’s calls?
SuperBunny on November 4, 2008 at 8:57 PM
ON a positive note: Nina Easton is very intelligent and articulate.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
This idiot on Fox is bashing the free market now.
WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
With 2% of PA precincts reporting, they give it to Obama?
Riiiiiiight.
profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
It could happen. Check out actual stats from PA, only 3%+ of precincts are in:
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
redfoxbluestate on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
kingsjester,God’s in control? If Mr. 0 wins, which god is in control?
Pelayo on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
And I can’t stand that even the “pundits” on Fox are so morose and already acting like its over. Bill Kristol practically said so a few minutes ago.
RRRRGGGHHHH….
duanesm on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
FIFY.
BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Media still sucks. Nothing new going on yet.
tuffy on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
They did take back votes called for Kerry in 2004, but that was much more chaotic. Every channel was reporting different polls, and they would then contradict themselves every 20 minutes.
Obamalama Deprogrammer on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
That’s easy. McCain takes Fl, Va, Co and Nv.
Maxx on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
We are STILL a center-right country but with an insidious insurgency of Marxist loons. We MUST learn from this and starting tomorrow, we will take our country back.
jbtripp on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Seriously – why the HELL is everyone freaking out over exit poll predictions or even with under 5% reporting?!? C’mon – get a grip!!!
RedNewEnglander on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
OH 61-38 FOR BO WITH LESS THAN 2%
PA 69-38 ” ” ” ” ” ”
BUT FOX CALLS PA FOR BO & SAYS THERE’S LESS THAN 1 IN 250 CHANCE FOR FOX TO BE WRONG WITH PA.
NightmareOnKStreet on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
So, I hear Harper’s doing good things in Canada. Or maybe we can move to Alaska, secede from the Obamaunion, and make Sarah and Todd Snowmachiners-in-Chief?
malan89 on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM
It’s still not over, even if Pennsylvania went to Obama, but McCain needs every single battleground state.
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Having a degree in statistics, either Obama blew McCain out of the water, or they (MSM) are wrong, in PA. If it starts looking close, you can be confident that most best are off. Let’s hold the line, people.
Wineaholic on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
God is in control NO MATTER who wins. And…there is only one God.
duanesm on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Hello Gina, I am actually Michael Barone. Are you Italian?
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
I’m still here.
Moxie on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Nina Easton’s husband used to work for McCain’s campaign during his round one of the primaries. Dunno if he quit or got fired, but she has been sort of channeling some McCain bashing spirit since the GE started. I don’t care to listen to a word of that panel anymore. Barns of all people, he has become a joke.
SuperBunny on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Trust in the Lord with all your heart
and lean not on your own understanding
thomasaur on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
And the boys they buggered.
One thing I CANNOT ABIDE is a a “Progressive Christian”.
SAVE IT.
seejanemom on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
*bets are off
Wineaholic on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
FLA Obama 52-48
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
180 – 81, FOX lower corner
alflauren on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
49% of them in Pa. are.
What the hell are they thinking?
BacaDog on November 4, 2008 at 8:59 PM
Ooooh. sherry has a little competition.
What do you say ladies? Care to come on down to Salty’s house and lay around the fire?
These beta males cooling you off?
Fire’s warm. Come on in out of the cold.
Saltysam on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Agreed. I just saw that only 3% of the votes are “in” in PA, but the media is already “calling it”. That is total crap!
gxpgxp on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Has Gary started coming in yet?
Mattpat11 on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Nader has 22% of the vote in PA. NADER.
duanesm on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
FTFY
abinitioadinfinitum on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
This won’t be a blowout for Obama. He’ll be lucky to get more than 290 electoral votes. Did many people really expect to win 3 Presidential election in a row?
Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
Manly somebody said in roamnian to be patient and that we are going to laugh or cry later.
But I am already crying my eyes out. Manly we were fooled by Hillary’s suporters that said they were going to vote for McCain but they voted for O. Triators. Never trust them again.
clemycali on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
NIce try, c_f!
Gina on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
I’m not going to bed – it’s only 2am here! I seeing this through to the end.
EnglishMike on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
NM gone.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM
ON another positive note: We have beautiful Megyn Kelly to deliver the news of our socialist takeover.
“A spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down”
malan89 on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Buzz off, Lothario. I hit on her first.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Those smiles yesterday went away awfully quick.
lorien1973 on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
No way. You called my Commander in Chief every name in the book for eight years and liberals called me and my comrades murderers since the war started. Now we have to come together because you giuys might win???
Don’t think for a minute I will give him and his administration any bigger chance than you gave Bush. Game on tomorrow bitch.
Turn about is fair play.
hawkdriver on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Nina Easton is whining about flat wages for the middle class.
Maybe if we didn’t hide the cost of employer-provided health insurance in the aura of a nontaxable fringe benefit, the middle class would see at least some of the increase of their wages.
BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Of course. Like I said, VA will stay red. If not, hell has officially frozen over, and I will then go ice skating in it.
Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
No, seriously. Ask anyone here.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
ABC calls Michigan for Obama.
haner on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Ohio goes to Obama.
amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Ohio for Obama. All over.
Mattpat11 on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Fox just called Ohio for Obama. It is over.
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
OHIO for Obama. It is over.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
OH big for Obama by FOX… fraud
Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 9:01 PM
he got ohio shi*.
Project Ocelot on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Fox just retracted Ohio.
amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Have another beer, I will.
abinitioadinfinitum on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Nevermind.
Mattpat11 on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
I have to say that I would have hated a Hillary presidency. But I absolutely FEAR an Obama presidency. We have finally turned the corner and will be Sweden in 30 years. And I love the MSM pushing that the conservative policies have gotten us here?…huh…WHAT CONSERVATIVE POLICIES? Bush has been terrible on everything BUT the war. Why cant individuals opt out of all this socialist crap. Well time to go play some Fallout 3.. the future of America.
lostinjrz on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
ohio not called
unseen on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Polls not even closed here, NO precincts reporting,, yet FOX calls NM for 0bama????? WTF?
LegendHasIt on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Oops. Brit fucked up. No Ohio.
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
OH… retracted… get it together!
Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
F*CK Never mind.
NOt OHIO>
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Brit Hume just called Ohio and then took it back. Man almost gave me a heart attack…
malan89 on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Fox NOT calling Ohio for Zero!
Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
IT POURED ALLL FREAKIN’ DAY in VIRGINIA, y’all….And McCain is ahead…..
seejanemom on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Wisconsin: Obama
New Mexico: Obama
Minnesota: Obama
New York, Rhode Island, Michigan: Obama
North Dakota: McCain
Kentucky: McCain
Wyoming: McCain
WOAH! Hume mistakenly called Ohio for Obama — took it back. Wow, that was scary.
ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Lol.
BadgerHawk on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
brit just gave me a heart attack
Lance Murdock on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Nope-they are NOT calling Oh…
Babino on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
fox called ohio, not calling ohio
oops wisc
get it straight – don’t call it at all!
audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
they took it back FU&& FOX!!
Project Ocelot on November 4, 2008 at 9:02 PM
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