Round two: PA, FL, MO; Update: NBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama; Update: Fox too
posted at 8:00 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
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No calls yet in round one as I write this. Florida and Missouri won’t be called until late, either, but if The One’s exit poll margin in Pennsylvania really is 15 points, there’s at least a chance it could go early and puncture Maverick’s balloon.
New general election updates will appear in this thread, but I’ll update the last one with results from those states as they come in.
Update: Bright and early as the clock strikes eight, NBC calls Pennsylvania for The One. Start drinking.
Update: Here’s my map from the predictions thread the other day. To get to a McCain victory, you had to flip 50 electoral votes from blue to red. Try doing it without Pennsylvania.

Update: Steve Kornacki does the math. Barring any very surprising upsets, Obama’s already banked 259 EVs. All he needs is one red state from 2004 worth 11 EVs to turn blue and he’s pretty much set.
Update: ABC also says Obama takes Pennsylvania. And, to add insult to injury, New Hampshire.
Update: Exit poll data from Florida per Marc Ambinder has Obama, amazingly, winning Hispanics by 10 points.
Update: Fox News says Obama wins Pennsylvania, too. And according to the CNN map, with 36 percent reporting, he leads in Florida by more than 200,000 votes.
Update: A McCain aide acknowledges to Ambinder that they need a miracle.
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For sure
kahall on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
I can’t listen to the radio OR the news. Everyone is depressed! Larry Elder is at least trying to be positive- the callers aren’t.
I trust only ManlyRash. My ray of sunshine.
illustr8r on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
If they go Obama, and Obama wins, they deserve whatever they get. Same for the country as a whole, IMO.
ddrintn on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
McCain has no margin of error now. He has to win every Bush state.
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Guys, the media doesn’t determine the winner. Voters do. Chill!
a capella on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Please try to contain the contents of your bowels, ladies and gentlemen. There is the small matter of the counting of the votes.
Jim Treacher on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Is PA for real? son of a bitch!
kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Sad that my home state of PA is going to Obama….
joest73 on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
What’s wrong with these people?
BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
I want to see PA’s actual returns. I’m waiting.
quikstrike98 on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Manly, hold us!
Gina on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
WTF?!?!?!
They still aren’t showing any actual results.
So everything Barone said is still completely valid…
Huh?
ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
The Evil Traitor Media is calling states with NO data whatsoever?
Huh?
I hope Mccain wins and the media burns..
SaintOlaf on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
what’s Murtha doing?
ctmom on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
This nation elects Obama then this 1\2 of the nation will deserve what it gets.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
McCain got my homestate Alabama
AMartinez on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Manly, tell the truth, bud: You’re going to hold out for California to break for McCain, aren’t ya? :)
paul006 on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
I honestly don’t know how they are calling PA so quickly. WTF?
haikusrock on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Barone’s throwing cold water on the Pa. calls
aengus on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Oh well. I guess that’s about it.
phronesis on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Did you see my post about the witchdoctor in Kenya calling it for Obama? lol
*sigh*
Ugly on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
I’m just watching and laughing, Jim. Like turkeys in a sudden hailstorm.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM
These are just exit polls people. You know they can’t be trusted. Hello? 2000, 2004, remember? Wait for the votes to come in before you get all whiny.
Guardian on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Does KoolAid mix well with burbon?
ImRight on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
The trolls are feeding you… BS…
profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Yeah, this isn’t looking good at all. Ugh.
changer1701 on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
McCain ahead by 4 in Indiana, with 40% reporting. But Gary, Indiana hasn’t come in yet.
haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
How can Penn be called with less than 10%?
lsutiger on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Yeah, I can’t wait. I hope people are able to see through the Democraps’ ruse after Obama is elected. Tomorrow will be a very sad day. I hope my African American history professor isn’t an a-hole and gloat about Obama’s “historic victory.”
Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
I call shenanigans!
Fox is just guessing.
I’ll believe PA is still Blue when we see some real results, or when Barone says it’s so.
ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:33 PM
CHILL THE F OUT PEOPLE. Just wait for the actual numbers. Geez.
BadgerHawk on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
well, it was nice knowing you Manly Rash. Have a good life. You have to leave by noon tomm right? According to your bet.
Robb on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
QFT
‘zactly
Ugly on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
WTF???
How can they call one state that’s close, but TCTC when they are so far apart?
tru2tx on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
…..someone pass me the bucket….
SoxNation on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
most news sources are not calling PA for obama. i think nbc looked at exit polling numbers. im paying attention to cnn and fox. neither have called PA for obama.
venicesurfer on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Fine, how about the Bill Murray mutt speech from Stripes then?
Laura in Maryland on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Yes, quite true. But, until then, I will be in the eeyore mindset.
Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Who here went to bed in 2004 thinking that Kerry had won? I know I did….
Fortunata on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Barone is an expert. He knows EVERYTHING. That’s interesting.
capitalist piglet on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Mac should have tried to gone after Michigan not Pennsylvania.
terryannonline on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
Remember what Sean Malestrom said yesterday and so far he it appears he is on the money
LordMaximus on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
I would like to 2nd or 3rd the motion to please stop having a nervous breakdown. We’ve seen this movie before, remember? 2004? Exit polls? Oh wow, very cool trick. I doubt anyone who’s still in line in PA (if they entered line before 8pm) is going to have NBC and FOX on their portable tvs, so everyone just relax and ignore the trolls.
SuperBunny on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
Chambliss too close.
WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
That would truly be the audacity of hope. I’d skip class.
redfoxbluestate on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
It got awfully quiet……
kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
BadgerHawk – ditto here.
sherry on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
According to my watch it’s 8:35 PM
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
That was before the Fox desk called it for Obama.
amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
Fox is now projecting Obama takes PA … with 0.0% of precincts reporting.
crosspatch on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
Relax, those are just a few states, we still have like 52 left to go.
Laura in Maryland on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
amazing what 700 Million dollars can buy you
jp on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
I’m thinking Florida goes to Obama, but McCain hangs onto Virginia.
DaveO on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM
Yeah count the votes BUT PA was the “inside straight” McCain needed and he “jes dint’get-it!” Too bad . . . good night folks . . . recruiting for the loyal opposition starts tomorrow!
rebuzz on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Networks are in the business of “being first.” So what if they 1) get the call wrong; and 2) suppress votes and therefore hurt the voting process. Like they give a crap.
All will be forgiven as it always is, right? Count the votes people. It’s only a few more hours.
Sugar Land on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
FLA Obama 52-47 40 per cent in
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Virginia is up big for McCain. What does that say about the polls?
AnthonyK on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
So did I. But I had to get up at 5:30 the next morning, so I missed a lot.
BadgerHawk on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
I just want to thank Allah for telling it like it is. Reading Ace (and even Ed lately) has just been a bunch of happy talk. Blowing sunshine (”don’t trust every polling agency’s findings” [and i mean regular polls not exit ones]) does no one any good. They should’ve been screaming “we’re losing: VOLUNTEER!” Ace only got on that bandwagon in the last week, WAY too late.
Trent1289 on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
The scary part is, half the people in this country voted for this shady charlatan.
abinitioadinfinitum on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
I think once the votes are counted MSM is going to get some egg on its face. Dole has had a 6% swing
unseen on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
nevermind. it took 4 refreshes.
kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
“We will not go quietly into the night”
SurferDoc on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
I’m enjoying the panicked clucking and wing flapping.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
I thought FNC called PA for OB – I was out of the room did I hear incorrectly – oh crap, no I wasnt hearing things!
HawaiiLwyr on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Electoral-vote.com has MA, VT and NH for Mac right now. Looks like someone there is drinking at the switch!!!
;)
RedNewEnglander on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
If McCain loses Florida, it’s over folks.
terryannonline on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
NBC: Alabama and Georgia called for McCain.
haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
One of these Bush states go to Obama and it’s over.
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Given a big enough lead in philly and the cities, there are not enough votes in the burbs to overcome it. That’s why they are calling PA. Face the grim reality.
lorien1973 on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Yes. There was also a time when they waited until after, you know, they’d actually counted a few votes before calling a state. Maybe they have somewhere important to be and want to get out of the studio early tonight. Hey, maybe we should just skip all this slow and cumbersome voting and just elect everybody based on exit polls.
GalosGann on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
The fat lady hasn’t sung yet. Go play with yourself.
Schadenfreude on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
I believe PA will switch.
MrX on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Who gives a crap about having a filibuster? Its not like Republicans are ever going to use it against the Obamessiah. Don’t wanna be called racist, after all.
Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Please stop saying what should have been done, this is not over. The only thing that matters is the actual returns from the precincts, not what the networks say. Ok? Now chill please.
SuperBunny on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM
He’s Nostradamus.
Oink on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
oof..getting a headache. Better start getting ready for the next four years. I say, rather than going defense, we go offense and start by being every bit as nasty as the dems have been this year.
Already on it……
Handel on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
I would, but I’ve already missed two out of the three classes I’m allowed to miss.
Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Oh, boy. She was down by 25.
Jaibones on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
I’m enjoying being reminded of Baghdad Bob.
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
So…are they still going by exit polls when they say __% reporting? Mixed signals from some. What gives?
anuts on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
I don’t get the point of networks calling states based on polls. Do they want to set themselves up for race riots in case they’re wrong?
Phoenician on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Or even the Bill Murray rally speech from Meatballs! That one always make me laugh hysterically.
ErinF on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Fox finally calls PA.
Typhonsentra on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
I just had to LMAO. One of the talking heads on this state’s NBC Affiliate just said this:
Man, I don’t think I’m going to be able to take the idiocy from these dweebs for long.
LegendHasIt on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
19% of Hllary Dems in PA went for McCain and they call it before any votes are tallied?
jp on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
The only thing that is 100% predictable is that the MSM will call elections on historically unreliable exit polls as a tool to suppress the vote in the later time zones.
Listen to Barone.
Do not pay ANY attention to the exit poll election calls by the MSM, especially NBC.
Western and Mountain time voters…get off your ass if you haven’t voted yet…or are you too hypnotized by NBC to get out of your lazychair?
Suckers!
Saltysam on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
Foxnews calls PA for Obama. It’s really over.
haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM
fox just called Pennsylvania.
Handel on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
From your lips to God’s ears!
HawaiiLwyr on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
White Catholics in PA went to McCain. 19% of Clinton Democrats went to McCain, 81% went to Obama. Union households went to Obama 64%. Seniors went to Obama 51%.
63% said Obama was in touch. Only 38% said the same of McCain.
amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
63% of Penn voters think Obama is in touch with them.
Unbelievable.
WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
They finally counting PA votes, only 1% though
Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
I fugured the exit polling could go either way this year, try to make it more accurate to save credibility, or to go over the top for Obama to try and influence voters/stir up the “stolen election” sentiment.
Looking at some of the other responses in the exit polling it looks like they chose the latter. I’m hoping, anyway.
reaganaut on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
I repeat: is there any way I can watch Fox without TV reception?
CherokeeJack on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
On Election Day ‘04, I was absolutely convinced that Kerry had won. Because that’s what the news said. Because that’s what the exit polls said.
If you want to kick at the football even though you know Lucy pulls it away every time, go ahead.
Jim Treacher on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
fox calling penn on less 2% vote
and exit polls
don’t believe it!
audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
WTF, Fox began their coverage at 7:00 telling us not to believe exit polls. What’s going on over there?
Pelayo on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
dole just got another 2 % swing
unseen on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
Although I live in Florida, I was born in Pennsylvania. Since it has just been called for BHO, I hereby declare that folks that vote in PA should henceforth be known as “Cling-ons”… that description fits multiple definitions.
CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”
CapedConservative on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM
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