Round two: PA, FL, MO; Update: NBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama; Update: Fox too
posted at 8:00 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
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No calls yet in round one as I write this. Florida and Missouri won’t be called until late, either, but if The One’s exit poll margin in Pennsylvania really is 15 points, there’s at least a chance it could go early and puncture Maverick’s balloon.
New general election updates will appear in this thread, but I’ll update the last one with results from those states as they come in.
Update: Bright and early as the clock strikes eight, NBC calls Pennsylvania for The One. Start drinking.
Update: Here’s my map from the predictions thread the other day. To get to a McCain victory, you had to flip 50 electoral votes from blue to red. Try doing it without Pennsylvania.

Update: Steve Kornacki does the math. Barring any very surprising upsets, Obama’s already banked 259 EVs. All he needs is one red state from 2004 worth 11 EVs to turn blue and he’s pretty much set.
Update: ABC also says Obama takes Pennsylvania. And, to add insult to injury, New Hampshire.
Update: Exit poll data from Florida per Marc Ambinder has Obama, amazingly, winning Hispanics by 10 points.
Update: Fox News says Obama wins Pennsylvania, too. And according to the CNN map, with 36 percent reporting, he leads in Florida by more than 200,000 votes.
Update: A McCain aide acknowledges to Ambinder that they need a miracle.
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Yeah, NBC called it with 0% in.
Spirit of 1776 on November 4, 2008 at 8:24 PM
I’ll take my Ketamine drip now, please.
With a side order of OREOS.
seejanemom on November 4, 2008 at 8:24 PM
Fox is reporting that the NBC call is based on exit polling only. We know how accurate exit polling is.
Have faith. Fox will not call Penn yet.
Pelayo on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Barone discussing Pennsylvania —- exit polls look good for Obama, but can’t call it until they can start comparing exit polls to actual data in some of the precincts.
They’ve had exit polls showing Obama getting 11% more votes in some precincts than the actual votes turned out to be.
This supports what we’ve been saying about the exit poll errors. We should take hope from this.
ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
I’ll wait for fox to call PA, but if they do it’s probably over. I don’t see McCain holding all of Bush’s states.
phronesis on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Is it me, or does that Fox interactive map SUCK?!? It’s all over the place! :P
http://elections.foxnews.com/states_map/index.html?
RedNewEnglander on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
How about next time we get a candidate who doesn’t believe in global warming? Just for starters.
Buy Danish on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Why is it that we rural areas always have to bail you urban areas out?
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
From Twitter: @nlj two major dem counties in nc are reporting – thus the results you’re seeing. repubs – don’t panic
timinnc on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
I can’t take the stress. I’m gonna go watch some freaky-deaky J-horror to soothe my nerves.
saint kansas on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Manly Rash, we need the Henry V speech NOW!
Laura in Maryland on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
NBC was pretty clear that their call was based on exit polls, not any real vote counts.
crosspatch on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Michael Barone said not so fast on Penn
katy on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Hey guys, tomorrow will come and we will know all the tallies, so why say anyone is in denial? I think it can still go either way, but this is a good year for Democrats. That is just a fact. 2002 was a good year for Republicans, that is how this kind of thing works.
Terrye on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
exit polling for Sotero is at least 5 points too high in primaries. just the facts maam, not going to get much of those for the next 5 hours or more. BURNIN down the whitehouse!
anti-boomer on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Hey N.H., what ever happened to “Live free or die”? Change that to “Socialism or die”.
Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Could the early call for PA come back to bite NBC?? OH THAT would be sweet!
rebuzz on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Sununu (R) loses re-election to Shaheen (D) in NH.
amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Don’t worry…Bill Kristol = scumbag dem propagandizer
SaintOlaf on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Holy Crap = the Senate is going bye bye
HawaiiLwyr on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Sununu out. Crap.
BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
What is the Michael Barone update? He is the district diva.
sherry on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
All these coal mining States must not give a damn about their jobs or the price of energy I guess.
Pity.
Yakko77 on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
LISTEN UP!!!!!!!! AS soon as the polls close, they dump in their early voting tallies. Cheer up. They haven’t counted the votes of the REAL people yet!
Oink on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Barone:McCain running ahead of BUSH in certain Florida counties but it is still a close race!
AnthonyK on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
How can you watch Olberman at a time like this?
Laura in Maryland on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Relax, some of you drink or get laid seriously, Barone just got done saying its all built on exit polls with PA.
Project Ocelot on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Ok, I’ve held off as long as I could. Opening the shiraz now…
ErinF on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
I really hope this is not the downfall of America. We are supposed to leave a better future for our kids, not a worse one.
Ceroth on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Them and their ^%$*%#&*$ exit polls!!
Gina on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Not yet. WAY too early.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
I think its worth saying that CNN is the most conservative with their calls. From their refreshed map online, they only have Obama 77 and McCain 34
Wineaholic on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
It’s fine to express concern.
It’s fine to express optimism.
Let’s just not turn on each other and name call – if you’re not one of us, it makes sense though, doesn’t it?
Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Anyone else not able to watch Fox on their site?
CherokeeJack on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
How can you say don’t panic?It looks bad. Where is Manly that was so confident in Mac’s victory and we are going down.
clemycali on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Ouch.
Shaheen blew out Sununu.
Looks like the Senate is going to be really, really dismal for the next two years.
ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
FLA Obama 53-47 30 per cent
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:26 PM
Also, did anyone else notice they called NH for Barry with only 636 votes in?
long_cat on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Oho. How many times did we tell ourselves (less than 24 hours ago)? DON’T BELIEVE THE EXIT POLLS. THEY’RE MORE WORTHLESS THAN THE MSM POLLS!!!!!
There. Feel better now.
Fortunata on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Wait a minute, did Bush carry PA? I don’t think so.
Terrye on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl130
I don’t believe this B.S. Ah, well, guess tomorrow’s gonna be a sad day. I hate The Messiah so much right now.
Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Barone: Mac overperforming Bush in some FL counties, underperforming in others. Expects very close race.
Ponz on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Forget what I just wrote. I’m going now. No freak outs tonight. So sorry guys.
Ceroth on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
New Hampshire’s run as the conservative part of New England is officially over.
Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
…since, as we all know, Pennsylvania doesn’t give a rat’s ass about its coal industry, and would look forward to any opportunity for The Messiah to bankrupt it if he is elected.
manwithblackhat on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
Sununu has lost
*sipps irish coffee*
ScottieOSU2000 on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
NH=Useless. Live free or die? My a**. Enjoy rampant taxation!
Republican on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
I thought something like this would happen. Wasn’t there a time (maybe brief) in which networks wouldn’t call states for candidates while polls were still open in the West?
ddrintn on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM
The trolls here are voting for Obama’s spinmeisters in droves.
People are still voting in PA.
It’ll be a long night.
Have a snack.
Sip something tasty.
Let the profressional panick-istas have their fun…
profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM
The evil traitor mainstream media is propagandizing to the end.
SaintOlaf on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Manly is still here. And as certain as ever that McCain will win. I’m calm as can be.
ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Or asylum.
McCain and Palin ran an awful campaign, and unfortunately it turned out the only people who drank McCain’s Kool-aid were Republicans who formerly couldn’t stand McCain.
haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM
It sucks. All over the place for me too. States are blinking on and off like Christmas lights.
Mr_Magoo on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Okay – I’ve had my freak out.
Some of these “results” are only “exit polls”?
Why are they calling states on EXIT POLLS? Wishful thinking?
tru2tx on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM
How can they call PA with NO VOTES COUNTED??
WHAT IS THIS BS????
opa-opa on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM
The libs from Mass have turned it.
WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Be back in a second. Have to make a beer run.
HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Trolls… gotta spin… fish gotta fly….
profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM
This is the MSM. Nothing they do surprises me anymore.
Gina on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM
McCain’s catching up in the popular vote.
Phoenician on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Pennsylvania goes to Barack Obama, Fox says.
amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
the Live Free or Die state submits to postmodernism, Socialism
jp on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Fox calls PA for Obama
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Fox just called PA. Not looking good.
CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
PA is Obama.
taney71 on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
FOX: Obama gets PA
Wineaholic on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
pa to barack.
IrishEi on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Fox just called Pennsylvania for Obama.
paul006 on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Oh God.
HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Fox calls for Obama.
It’s over.
swami on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Fox calls PA for O???? :(
quikstrike98 on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
I wish I had your confidence. Fox just called Pennsylvania for Obama which leaves almost no margin for error. Colorado is now a must win.
Doughboy on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Almost all results are still being based on exit polls. They called Pa and maine with no votes in/ NH , NJ with less than one percente
unseen on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Obama will destroy their coal industry, and pay them off with welfare.
EnglishMike on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
FOX called Pennsylvania.
Mattpat11 on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
103 EV to 39 EV…Hail the Emperor. Fox just called PA for the “Chosen One”
shoregulls on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
What percent of the vote was counted?
Gina on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Even my dog is groaning at PA.
boomer on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
now its over
Lance Murdock on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
They can’t call an election based on exit polling. The exit polls are crap. Don’t believe it. Democrats will always win the MSM’s polls. You have to count the freeking votes!
Buck Turgidson on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Jeez. It’s only 8:30 here and Shep is getting a tingle up his leg.
Ugly on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Depress that Western Vote, O Wise and Impartial MSM!
profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Fox said it’s Obama in Penn.
Pennsylvania is full of Dumbasses.
Pelayo on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
So if Mac loses a “red state” it is very well over.
carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Georgia still too close.
Don’t worry, it will all be over soon…
WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Fox calls for Obama.
It’s over.
swami on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM
Meant to say PA.
I love optimists, but for McCain to win, he needed PA.
It’s over kids, start drinking.
swami on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
wow, we lost PA. What’s with these people?
ctmom on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Gack.
Fox is now calling Pennsylvania for Obama —- McCain now needs to take basically every remaining swing state.
Ulp.
ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
OUCH!!!!!! Fox just called PA for BHO!!!!
The only hope left is OH (+VA).
rebuzz on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Fox just did it. Penn for Obama
RobertCSampson on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
What do the actual votes from PA look like?
BadgerHawk on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Hey People,
I knew I could find a positive attitude in this thread, just when I was feeling down.
abinitioadinfinitum on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
I went in, took my RED HOT shower. And PA turns blue. WTF?! Say it ain’t so. And keep saying it over my hyperventilating a** until I hear you! And I’ve got to go to work in half an hour…at least they encourage me to drink there!
FinallyRight on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
How can you say this? I am already in tears. PA was called by Fox for Obama?
clemycali on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
McCain should have just campaigned in the New Mexico and Colorado instead of PA.
Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Clinging to my guns in CA y’all. Voted for the experienced, vetted, and honorable candidate with a full resume at 7:15am PST. I’ll be duck hunting tomorrow am so if riots break out in LA at least I’ll be armed ;)
Biffstir on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
How do they call PA based on exit polls?
Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
think they are sacrificing Bulls and Goats in Keyna yet?
jp on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Wouldn’t that be like… 80% of republicans?
Immolate on November 4, 2008 at 8:31 PM
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