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Round two: PA, FL, MO; Update: NBC calls Pennsylvania for Obama; Update: Fox too

posted at 8:00 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
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No calls yet in round one as I write this. Florida and Missouri won’t be called until late, either, but if The One’s exit poll margin in Pennsylvania really is 15 points, there’s at least a chance it could go early and puncture Maverick’s balloon.

New general election updates will appear in this thread, but I’ll update the last one with results from those states as they come in.

Update: Bright and early as the clock strikes eight, NBC calls Pennsylvania for The One. Start drinking.

Update: Here’s my map from the predictions thread the other day. To get to a McCain victory, you had to flip 50 electoral votes from blue to red. Try doing it without Pennsylvania.

Update: Steve Kornacki does the math. Barring any very surprising upsets, Obama’s already banked 259 EVs. All he needs is one red state from 2004 worth 11 EVs to turn blue and he’s pretty much set.

Update: ABC also says Obama takes Pennsylvania. And, to add insult to injury, New Hampshire.

Update: Exit poll data from Florida per Marc Ambinder has Obama, amazingly, winning Hispanics by 10 points.

Update: Fox News says Obama wins Pennsylvania, too. And according to the CNN map, with 36 percent reporting, he leads in Florida by more than 200,000 votes.

Update: A McCain aide acknowledges to Ambinder that they need a miracle.


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Just hanging in here…

Bob's Kid on November 4, 2008 at 8:01 PM

Obama wins the usual suspects.

carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:02 PM

My Virginia is leaning right …

eucher on November 4, 2008 at 8:03 PM

NBC calls Pennsylvania for The One.

They’re just being optimistic. I’ll wait for Fox’s call.

jgapinoy on November 4, 2008 at 8:03 PM

I don’t expect to be up more than another 90 minutes. That PA news may hasten that.

JammieWearingFool on November 4, 2008 at 8:03 PM

Go Team McCain!

George_Canada on November 4, 2008 at 8:03 PM

NO WAMMIES

mad saint jack on November 4, 2008 at 8:03 PM

Fox and CNN aren’t calling PA yet… hopefully that’s closer to reality. Otherwise, gulp.

Wineaholic on November 4, 2008 at 8:03 PM

NBC? ANybody else?

Elizabetty on November 4, 2008 at 8:03 PM

Fox calls Pennsylvania too close to call.

Let’s wait and see. We’ve seen premature calls before…

ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

how the heck can you call a state that hasn’t counted a single vote??

rightallthetime on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

NBC? Never Been Correct? lol

AnthonyK on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

15% in Fla, Zero STILL winning! Dammit! C’mon PANHANDLE!

Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

um…basing a win on exit polling is idiotic. But the the New Bolshevik Channel(NBC) is just getting used to making up news all the time.

theguardianii on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

Rove says that Obama is ahead of where he needs to be in big counties in Florida and unfortunately McCain is ahead of where he needs to be in small Florida counties. Not helpful.

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

PA may go for Obama, but I can’t believe it’ll be by 15.

dalewalt on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

Bitter clingers letting us down. Polls just closed. This has to be based on exit polls, right?

lorien1973 on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

i WISH THEY’D STOP CALLING STATES WITH ONLY 3% IN!

Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

Tn is checked for Mac

tee866 on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

If McCain wins exactly the same states that Bush did, I will laugh my ass off.

Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

I don’t know, the NBC call worries me. I’ve become like Allah in my pessimism.

warrenmr on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

Calls PA based on exit polls?????

Sugar Land on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

Without Tim Russert, NBC is nothing.

carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

I just watched CNN.com call South Carolina for McCain with 0% of precincts reporting but showing 47% McCain, 53% Obama. Does this amount to a media-spun Get of The Vote effort in the potentially crucial states of Nevada and Colorado? Obviously, there is no way to know for sure, but it would certainly make sense that if the media had any concerns that early exit polling calls in 2000 and 2004 actually decreased Democrat turnout, wouldn’t it make sense to reverse the process and see if that reversed the reaction?

It’s just a random thought. I’m sure the madness will intensify as the night progresses.

http://unequal-time.blogspot.com

bryanmyrick on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

It’s so depressing and nerve-wracking following all of this. I think I’ll just go away for awhile, and come back in a few hours, and try to forget about it for as long as I can.

Sir Corky on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

Remember 2004, when Bush won Ohio and the Kerry Campaign called NBC and ABC (and the rest of the MSN) not to call it for Bush (after Fox did).

Chaz706 on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

ABC called Obama for PA too. It’s over.

haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

Can we secede yet?

eaglesdontflock on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

Game over.

WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

Zero winning in TX??? Only 1% though.

Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

I’m going to wait for the fair and balance channel FOX before I believe PA is lost

Lance Murdock on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

Wasn’t NBC the station that called Ohio for Kerry?

This worries us?

bds1976 on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

FLA Obama 55-44 17 Per cent

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

Why are they calling W.V. for Mac if ZERO is winning?

Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

let’s go redneck riviera…

phreshone on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

NBC calls PA for Obama!

Consider me SHOCKED and AWED! C’mon. They’re working to pull this off. I’ll believe Obama has PA when I see 50% of poll results.

lansing quaker on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

Pennsylvania is always a mirage to Republicans. Better to treat it like New York.

Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

ABC: Obama getting white working voters in PA by 52% to 47%.

haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

I’m going to wait until they actually count the votes before I believe PA is lost.

JenWestin on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

ABC: Obama getting suburban voters in PA by 52% to 47%. John Kerry lost that vote in 2004.

haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

ABC calls PA for The One. I feel a gulp coming…

Wineaholic on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

NBC is such a crapweasel network

califcon on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

I’m waiting it out. There’s too much BS in the air.

ElectricPhase on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Hello…hello.

HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

PA for Obama? Hmmmmmm.
I’m holding out for a hero.

Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

FLA Obama 54-45 20 per cent in

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Go Mitch!

HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Megyn Kelly’s lookin’ good! As always.

Zero winning Pop Vote

Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Mitch McConnell keeps his seat.

carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Calm down. All is well. Manly Rash is here. McCain will win.

ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

McConnell won reelection.

Really good news — good sign for the filibuster.

ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Allahpundit, just give up. No matter what you pull, you’re never getting a job proofing copy for Olbermann.

indythinker on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

YAY…MITCH MC PULLS IT OUT!

labwrs on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Wow. This is awful. ManlyRash – what now?

Republican on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Fox calls McConnell the winner!

Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

NBC called Pennsylvania with 0% in. Maddening.

Spirit of 1776 on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

FoxNews calling it for McConnell.

WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

How can you call a state that hasn’t voted yet? Especially a frigging swing state?!?!

YellowDawg on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Dole loses.

amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Uh oh. Another senator fell. Dole out.

HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Liz Dole goes down.

carbon_footprint on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Funny. I remember FL getting called at the bell in 2000. Didn’t really turn out that way.

Allah: VA, FL, CO and NV would do the trick. I don’t see it playing out that way, but there’s your 50+ votes.

Physics Geek on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Sure, when Democrats are voting not once but thrice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4P2TPwrU4c4&eurl=http://corner.nationalreview.com/

I’m not a journalist, but you would think a reporter might want to ask a follow up question to a person who just admitted voting three times. Instead we get the “pay no attention to that man behind the curtain” reaction.

Bob L on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Dole loses N.C.

Not a good sign for Mac in N.C.

Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

NBC called America for Obama months ago, so I think we ought to just wait until votes are in…

Lehosh on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Calm down. All is well. Manly Rash is here. McCain will win.

ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

*agrees*

LIDDY LOST? Her own darned fault! Still…DRAT!

labwrs on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Calm down. All is well. Manly Rash is here. McCain will win.

ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

You’d better come up with a different refrain bud – cause what’s happening out there is NOT matching your optimism.

Republican on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

PA is NOT going Obama, just hold on and WAIT, this is NBC trying to drive down REDS in Co and out west, relax…

Mark Garnett on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Aren’t these exit polls?

Guardian on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Dole gone.

WisCon on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Flip Florida, Colorado, Virgina and Nevada. QED.

Now, if the inhabitants will cooperate… ;)

Of course, Gawker has the exit poll margin for B.O in Pennsylvania at only 4 %-that’s far too close to call considering the bias in sampling.

We’ll see…

oddball on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

FLA Obama 54-45 20 per cent in

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Florida is going to keep looking bad for McCain until the panhandle results start to come in.

ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

FLA Obama 54-46 23 per cent reporting

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Why call PA before they even see the votes?

Terrye on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

What’s the senate count now?

phronesis on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Another Dole loses…

Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

I have to believe PA wont go for Obama – how much abuse are they willing to take – bitter, clingy, rednecks should fight fight fight for McCain

HawaiiLwyr on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

PA is NOT going Obama, just hold on and WAIT, this is NBC trying to drive down REDS in Co and out west, relax…

Mark Garnett on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Florida too, I suppose? Please.

Republican on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

damn. We need Dole.

kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Republican on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

SHUSH!

HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Any reports on Russell/Murtha?

ErinF on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Excuse the duplicate posts – think we’re writing at the same time.
Glad to see you ManlyRash…I’ll go get a cup of coffee now.

Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Whether or not McCain wins PA- that is typical of NBC and their desire to be Barrys propaganda agency.
P.S- America buys a pig in a poke- enjoy 4 years of misery.
A shameful chapter begins

jjshaka on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Allah: VA, FL, CO and NV would do the trick. I don’t see it playing out that way, but there’s your 50+ votes.

NC could flip blue; high black voter turnout.

aengus on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

You’d better come up with a different refrain bud – cause what’s happening out there is NOT matching your optimism. – Republican on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Gotta get your head out of the Drive-By lap…bud.

ManlyRash on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Rush predicted this would happen. Don’t believe it folks.

winewife on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Dole loses N.C.

Not a good sign for Mac in N.C.

Tony737 on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Not entirely. LDole ran a really stupid race. Some might just vote against her because of her campaign tactics which were insulting to anyone with a brain. Vote against LD, vote for MAC…stranger things have happened

YOU HEARD IT HEAR…I call it for MAC in NC..

labwrs on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

Calm down. All is well. Manly Rash is here. McCain will win.

I love your optimism, but facts are getting in the way.

jimbodeano67 on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

Pa, Va, Fl all going red. McCain wins. Period.

Time for the bubbly

VolMagic on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

This isn’t looking very good espically with North Carolina having The One ahead.

Brat4life on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

F*@king Eyore…

OldManC on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

PA is NOT going Obama, just hold on and WAIT, this is NBC trying to drive down REDS in Co and out west, relax…

Mark Garnett on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

ABC too? PA is not going to flip if NC and VA are on the margin.

haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

SHUSH!

HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

I’m sorry — it just pisses me off that this is happening and everybody in here is all dreaming — we’re getting our asses handed to us by a f**king socialist.

Republican on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

My wife, son and I worked the polls in suburban pa in a mostly R area.

Turnout was of course heavy. However, I did NOT see a single news team or exit poller while I was there.

My guess is that they were in the heavily D areas. for example, you can go down the road about 5 miles and go from heavy R to heavy d.

We did have some additonal BS in philly. There was some black panther intimidation and dems throwing legitimate republican poll workers out of the polls in the city. WIth the cheating in philly, it’s going to be hard to make that up in the rural areas. However, I can’t believe 15 points for obamarx.

bullseye on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

New Hampshire goes to Obama, Fox repo

amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

Ack.

Obama got New Hampshire — not a huge surprise, but I’d had hopes…

ClintACK on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

fox just called NH for obama

Lance Murdock on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

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