Round one: IN, VA, OH, NC

posted at 6:52 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit

Rather than have one unwieldy mega-thread for results, I’m going to break it up hour by hour. That’s truer to the “elimination round” nature of the early states that I talked about here, anyway.

Indiana and Virginia close at 7 p.m., Ohio and North Carolina follow half an hour later. McCain needs three at a bare minimum. Anything less, and you can start drinking. Hard liquor if you got it.

Exit quotation for meditation purposes while we wait: “Pal around together? What does that mean? Share a milkshake with two straws?”

Update: Lefty site MyDD claims to have gruesome swing-state exit poll data from inside sources. If they’re right, Obama wins Ohio by nine and Virginia by 10, which should make for reasonably early calls of both states. If those calls don’t come within the hour, it’s safe to say their data’s crap.

Update: I didn’t include Georgia in the states to watch because I figured it’d be safely red, The One’s GOTV efforts there notwithstanding. The longer it takes to call that, the more ominous it is.

Update: NBC’s predicting the Dems will pick up 12 House seats. Believe it or not, there were people on our side who expected the GOP to gain.

Update: Taegan Goddard says he has the exit poll data but doesn’t quite believe it, apparently because the margins are so lopsided. That jibes with MyDD’s data.

Update: For what it’s worth, the early indicators in Indiana aren’t good.

Update: NBC’s showing a huge lead for McCain among whites in Virginia, which surprises me. 18 points, I think.

Update: I spoke too soon: Hotline has Virginia exit poll data and says Obama leads among men by six and women by 12, which means his overall lead is around 10 points — exactly what MyDD had. Either those are the official exit polls or else someone’s circulating a bill of goods to a lot of leftish online outlets.

Update: Forgot to post an interactive map for you to follow results with. I’m using CNN’s and Politico’s.

Update (Ed): Once again, I’d suggest that exit polling isn’t going to get a good look at this.  Right now (6:39 pm), McCain’s up in Indiana with 19% of the precincts reporting by three points.  Not great, but not bad, either, although Gary comes in late.  After 2004, I’m waiting for actual votes rather than follow the exit polls.

Update: CNN’s map has Obama within a point with 25 percent reporting.

Blowback

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He needs all 4, since PA is lost :(

gash on November 4, 2008 at 6:55 PM

If you are going by exit polls, I’ll tell you exit polls are not worth the paper they are taken on.

Maxx on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Fox news has KY for JMc

kurtzz3 on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

I’m from Indiana… and I’m feeling nervous.

I’m glad Mitch Daniels is gonna stay as the Gov., but I don’t like how close it is between McCain and “the one”.

It’s only been a difference of a few thousand votes since I’ve been watching.

Nineball on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

FOX calls the VA senate race for the Dems. Crap.

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:10 PM

That was a given — no news there. Gilmore is not liked by mmany Republicans.

Elizabetty on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Mitch too close to call

unseen on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

no katy, you have to go back to your hole in the wall and drink your millionth gallon of obambi kool aid.

Nuge em on November 4, 2008 at 7:10 PM

From what I see, you swallowed a gallon already. Cut it out.

HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

So,, did the polls in Gary, IN really close on time? If so, that’s a HUGE plus for McCain/Palin.

You know the campaign had people stationed all over Gary to watch the vote fraud, and remember ACORN was in big trouble in IN…..

so if Gary closes on time, they aren’t getting to sit there filling in fake ballots based on ACORN registrations for 3 more hours.

funky chicken on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

TCTC means exit polls and vote results are not matching. That is good.
I think there is only about 1% of the vote in….take a deep breath.
There’s some good news coming in.

Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Lindsey Graham re-elected, too.

Great. More Grahamnesty!

BobAnthony on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

You guys are freaking out and drinking whiskey?

Buck up.

Dorvillian on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

HEY!

I always drink scotch!

*sips scotch*

FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

If they’re only picking up 12 House seats, isn’t that good? Weren’t they talking 20-30?

p0s3r on November 4, 2008 at 7:12 PM

Update: NBC’s predicting the Dems will pick up 12 House seats. Believe it or not, there were people on our side who expected the GOP to gain.

A loss of 12 would be better than some had feared.

dedalus on November 4, 2008 at 7:12 PM

Hoosier who voted McCain/Palin here. Not getting my hopes up until I see the cesspool that is Lake County’s results. Scotch in hand.

scotch amy on November 4, 2008 at 7:12 PM

I’ve got to say… I am starting to get the shakes. And I haven’t even taken a sip yet…

Wineaholic on November 4, 2008 at 7:09 PM

I’m already into the wine..2nd glass..one for you, one for me, one for..hmmmmm

GO MAC!

labwrs on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

I’m from Indiana… and I’m feeling nervous.

Nineball on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

I’m from Central Illinois and I’m feeling numb.

*sips scotch*

FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Turnout in Va was huge that means that Mccain will win.

Huge amounts of conservatives scared out of their minds of a Hussein presidency.

SaintOlaf on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

If Obama loses, Mark Warner will be the frontrunner next time.

Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

EXIT POLLS ARE WORTHLESS

I thought this allahpundit was supposed to be an educated person?

funky chicken on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Lindsay Graham wins

Mattpat11 on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Go to cnn’s exit poll for Indiana. It sure looks like Obama won the votes of the people who participated in that poll.

jim m on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Hey if the media can call it early then so can I.

My poll says McCain wins in a landslide. You Obama voters might as well go home.

winged on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

What are you guys watching to show your results?

dish on November 4, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Jack Daniels on IV drip works great … as long as I don’t have to get up.

darwin on November 4, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Scotch in hand.

scotch amy on November 4, 2008 at 7:12 PM

Hey lass!

That amber nectar ain’t gonna drink itself!

*sips scotch*

FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 7:14 PM

If they’re only picking up 12 House seats, isn’t that good? Weren’t they talking 20-30?

p0s3r on November 4, 2008 at 7:12 PM

I can live with that, especially if Murtha goes down.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Good sign: Florida!

Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 7:14 PM

Now for some humor tonight: Quoting the Great Abe Lincoln, first Republican President….

“I would like to have God on my side, but I need Kentucky.’

Chaz706 on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

McCain leading in FLA, VA early
Obama narrow lead in IN

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

Only EVER watch FOX..cant palate any of the others any more!

labwrs on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

My Muslim Faith is telling me that there is going to be a shocka….we are going to WIN!

HornetSting on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

Wasn’t Warner expected to win easily regardless of who won VA?

Mattpat11 on November 4, 2008 at 7:11 PM

Unfortunately. I moved into the state when he was in the second year of his term, and didn’t have the opportunity to vote against him. He is a smirky sort of chump who is responsible for several tax hikes that I’m still having to deal with.

I really hate the popularity contest, but that is one he has hands down. If Obama looses tonight, he is a likely contender in 2012 and beyond.

Marine_Bio on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

What are you guys watching to show your results?

dish on November 4, 2008 at 7:14 PM

The liquor level in my glass….

*sips scotch*

FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

I’m flipping out

*drinks beer and goes pee again*

skree on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

McCain 54 Obama 45 in VA. Less than 1% in

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

aol showing mac 54 o 45 in VA… not sure if these are exit polls or not?

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

anyone see fox had va red on the map for a sec?

unseen on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

I switched over to “How It’s Made”.

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

aol showing mac 54 o 45 in VA… not sure if these are exit polls or not?

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

Those are early official results.

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

I think I can take a BHO if Murtha goes down. That would be swwweeeeeett.

kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Yes, Warner was pretty much a shoo-in. It bugs me that they’re calling races with only 1% of precints reporting, though they’ll probably end up being correct.

Why not let folks count some votes first?

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Interactive election map

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

I’m watching FOX, but on CNN.com…superb site to track county by county results.

SouthernGent on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Taegan Goddard says he has the exit poll data but doesn’t quite believe it, apparently because the margins are so lopsided.

You would think that 2000 and 2004 would have taught some people a lesson. You’d be wrong.

Physics Geek on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

aol showing mac 54 o 45 in VA… not sure if these are exit polls or not?

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

It is less than 1% of the vote. If it is a democratic area than that is bad news for Obama.

Elizabetty on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Richmond, VA has McCain up by 8% with 15% reporting.

tdavisjr on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

I’m seeing McCain up by 9 in VA. Looks like MyDD is getting the results from their pet cats…

Tuari on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Hefeweizen, here. Nothing like a good wheat beer…

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

The liquor level in my glass….

*sips scotch*

FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

Heh.

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

Java juice only here – looks like a late night.
Gotta stay alert!

Watching Fox – checking other websites for info (for those who were asking where the info was coming from…)

Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

I think I can take a BHO if Murtha goes down. That would be swwweeeeeett.

We’re gonna get both!

katy on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

OK VA Michael Barone wannabees — quick — what part of the state comes in first traditionally. Beltway/Fairfax county or the sticks? I want to know what these numbers mean big picture wise.

grdred944 on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

What happened to the agreement by the broadcasters to not announce the results until the polls closed in California?

Remember the snafu with Gore/Bush in Florida

ScottyDog on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

Damn! Mac up by 8 in FL?

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

Richmond, VA has McCain up by 8% with 15% reporting.

tdavisjr on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Depends upon which precincts are in as to whether this is good or not.

Vashta.Nerada on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

Richmond, VA has McCain up by 8% with 15% reporting.

tdavisjr on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

That’s good. Still worried about Obama hanging in there in IN with 10 per cent of polls in.

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:15 PM

rightside those are real results 1% in.

F15Mech on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

typo…7

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

I switched over to “How It’s Made”.

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

They are not showing sausage being made are they?

Elizabetty on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

I think I can take a BHO if Murtha goes down. That would be swwweeeeeett.
We’re gonna get both!

I mean Nobama and murths out!

katy on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

Thanks

I was watching the CNN site during the primaries, and reaching into my superstitious mojo, I’ll watch the fox interactive instead.

I didn’t know they had one.

dish on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

CNN using hologram technology. Weird.

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

They’re making dog food.

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

OK VA Michael Barone wannabees — quick — what part of the state comes in first traditionally. Beltway/Fairfax county or the sticks? I want to know what these numbers mean big picture wise.

grdred944 on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

NVM — CNN breaks it down pretty well on their site.

grdred944 on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

Rookies. Bottles of wine? You have to buy it by the box!

Preferably more than one.

wccawa on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

That’s good. Still worried about Obama hanging in there in IN with 10 per cent of polls in.

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

Urban areas reported first and these tend to be democrat areas. Lots of counties to go and some could be 90% for McCain.

Elizabetty on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

Western Virginia counties always report earlier than the nothern counties. McCain needs HUGE, HUGE, HUGE margins there to offset the libtards in Arlington and Alexandria.

SouthernGent on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

wow – check out Foxe general election poll
mccain 51% Obama 47% good sign

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

Is the hologram on CNN real? That’s awesome looking.

Typhonsentra on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

They are not showing sausage being made are they?

Elizabetty on November 4, 2008 at 7:18 PM

Close. Dog food.

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

I think Manly Rash needs his own thread! LOL!

I am as nervous as a cat on a hot tin roof!

I believe, I voted, the husband voted and the yutes voted, but I am still nervous!

WE NEED THE MANLY RASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

freeus on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

OK VA Michael Barone wannabees — quick — what part of the state comes in first traditionally. Beltway/Fairfax county or the sticks? I want to know what these numbers mean big picture wise.

grdred944 on November 4, 2008 at 7:17 PM

I don’t know. If it is the Beltway first, then Obama has no chance in VA. NoVA is Virginia’s most liberal area.

Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

One day last summer, Ayers said, he received two threats on his office computer while he was in his downtown office. One said a posse was coming to shoot him; another said a gang would kidnap and waterboard him.

A university police officer who had known Ayers for years arrived and told him, “Gosh, I hope the guy who’s coming to shoot you gets here first.

Love it. So the cops ARE aware of who and what he is.

Guardian on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

Richmond, VA has McCain up by 8% with 15% reporting.

tdavisjr on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

Richmond tends to the left. I’m optimistic about my state.

JohnTant on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

McCain 54-46 early in FLA
McCain now leading in IN 50-49 9 per cent in

CNN

CanadianGuy on November 4, 2008 at 7:20 PM

http://elections.foxnews.com/states_map/index.html
This is an interactive election map which will allow you to see result by county.

Cindy of TX on November 4, 2008 at 7:20 PM

Obama’s extended family is going to sacrfice a goat if he wins. Please think of the goats!

Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 7:20 PM

tdavisjr on November 4, 2008 at 7:16 PM

I think that’s pretty good, I thought Richmond would go Obama.

Cindy Munford on November 4, 2008 at 7:20 PM

VA breakdown as it happens: here

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 7:20 PM

Ohmigod. CNN is gonna make me THROW UP!

How’s a guy supposed to drink when the TV screen moves????

wccawa on November 4, 2008 at 7:21 PM

I think that’s -nervous as a long tail cat in a room full of rocking chairs!!

katy on November 4, 2008 at 7:21 PM

CNN has VA McCain 55 – 44

FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 7:21 PM

NoVA generally comes in late, their pollworkers are overwhelmed. Next latest are the really rural areas. I think Richmond area and Tidewater generally report fairly early.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 7:21 PM

Knees don’t fail me now!

EZnSF on November 4, 2008 at 7:21 PM

Obama’s extended family is going to sacrfice a goat if he wins. Please think of the goats!

Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 7:20 PM

That should flip the entire PETA vote, so McCain will pick up about 20 votes in CA.

BadgerHawk on November 4, 2008 at 7:21 PM

You guys have to realize this isn’t a horserace, merely that some areas that lean towards one party sometimes report before other parts of the state.

Typhonsentra on November 4, 2008 at 7:21 PM

Welp…my Kentucky has done her part again. We wait to see if McConnell pulls it out. It’s been a hideously slimey campaign…just as we like it. ;)

Pilgrim on November 4, 2008 at 7:22 PM

One day last summer, Ayers said, he received two threats on his office computer while he was in his downtown office. One said a posse was coming to shoot him; another said a gang would kidnap and waterboard him.

A university police officer who had known Ayers for years arrived and told him, “Gosh, I hope the guy who’s coming to shoot you gets here first.“

Love it. So the cops ARE aware of who and what he is.

Yep..COP KILLER that he is even rentacops must HATE him!

Karl Rove..STOP SPINNING..geeeeeeeeez

labwrs on November 4, 2008 at 7:22 PM

Turnout in Va was huge that means that Mccain will win.

Huge amounts of conservatives scared out of their minds of a Hussein presidency.

SaintOlaf on November 4, 2008 at 7:13 PM

Looks like I have to project Virginia in the blue column. Taking the opposite of Olaf’s predictions is a surer bet than the sun rising tomorrow.

LevStrauss on November 4, 2008 at 7:22 PM

Yes java juice here too. Watching Fox with the Strategy room as well. Prepared for a late night too.

ScottieOSU2000 on November 4, 2008 at 7:22 PM

Richmond tends to the left. I’m optimistic about my state.

JohnTant on November 4, 2008 at 7:19 PM

Yup. I’ve been saying this all day, but for the love of God, I hope we stay red. That way, even if Obama wins, we can say we rejected The One’s silver tongue B.S. and fought to save the country from socialism.

Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 7:23 PM

Rove on Fox- The bail out had to be done.

pffft* that!

*sips scotch*

FiveWays on November 4, 2008 at 7:23 PM

West VA, called for McCain on FOX map

Weight of Glory on November 4, 2008 at 7:23 PM

Hate to double post, but in the time it took to write this, 300+ posts went up on a previous thread, and I think it’s important, so a rerun if y’all didn’t see b-4:

Jeez Louise gang. I just broke a cardinal hot air rule and didn’t read every post before I posted…just can’t stand all this gnashing of teeth, rending of clothing, etc!
I just got back from a day spent: a)voting, b)VOLUNTEERING at Mac-’Cuda HQ in St. Louis County. So, FWIW, herewith is a little antidote for ANY Eeyoreism out there:
The phone banks were packed. The energy level was high (but not frantic). Optimism, NOT pessismism was palpable. Volunteers who were not signed up to work were showing up to make calls, etc. and while not turned away, were in a few instances told, “Um, we could use you at like 4:00, could you come back then?”
I sat next to a true-blue (no pun intended)P.U.M.A on the phone banks and the other volunteers had literally erected a shrine to her as she’s made over 43,000 phone calls in the past I don’t know how many weeks, has worked tirelessly for Mac-’Cuda. She is an amazing, dedicated person who “Adored and bled for Hillary,” will “Never forgive Donna Brazil (sp?),” for how she told the HRC supporters they didn’t matter, and has, “Put her heart and soul into electing McCain.” She also has “Really come to love and admire Sarah Palin.” Yes, all her words.
Check this out you whiny little F.O.P.s (friends of Pooh): Some chick comes in the door, kinda creates all kinds of stir, walks up to my neighbor and congratulates her for all her hard work on behalf of the “cause” [maybe it wasn't cause, but if not, it was a euphemism...don't recall exactly]. Turns out said-chick is some big mucky-muck in the national PUMA org. who in addition to having canvassed all day for Mac-Cuda, had heard about neighbor-lady’s hard work and wanted to congratulate her and give her a gift (It was kind of an “Uncle Sam Wants You” looking poster with McCain/Sarah faces.)
Neighbor-lady was VERY honored by this. Claps, standing O’s etc. ensued.
Here’s another little tidbit: also there today, a gal from Edwards AFB in Illinois who was making calls with her three, delightful home-schooled teenagers. She said that they had nowhere within about 100 miles to volunteer for the Repubs in Illinois, so if that measely organization didn’t want help, well, she’d travel less distance and volunteer in MO! And get this: because hubby is military, rather than register to vote in Illinois and throw their vote away, they left registration in FL, “where it matters” and vote absentee. Way to make your vote count!!!
Gang, I have been positive and feel in my BONES this is gonna break big for us, so please please don’t despair!!! I could give you 4 or 5 more feel good stories (%/# young kids, enthusiasm, etc.) but I’d rather you just get out and drive one little old lady to the flippin’ polls dang it!!!
Now, pass the champagne please.

Chewy the Lab on November 4, 2008 at 5:51 PM

Chewy the Lab on November 4, 2008 at 7:23 PM

okay–I took everyone’s advice and am now drinking. Scotch rocks.

And now my stomach feels better!!!

dish on November 4, 2008 at 7:24 PM

Virginia- reporting so far are Chesterfield Co. (Richmond suburbs) and Campbell Co. (home of Jerry Falwell’s Liberty University)

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 7:24 PM

based on the results of Kentucky we have decided to go ahead and stop the election and just go witih those numbers Kentucky is giving us. Thanks everyone. John McCain, step up to the podium please.

williamS on November 4, 2008 at 7:24 PM

Looks like I have to project Virginia in the blue column. Taking the opposite of Olaf’s predictions is a surer bet than the sun rising tomorrow.

LevStrauss on November 4, 2008 at 7:22 PM

We will NOT go blue. If we do, I will be thoroughly ashamed of my state.

Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 7:24 PM

That is WEST-BY-GOD VIRGINIA btw! (Yep, they really do say that, good friend from the heart of WBGVa!)

labwrs on November 4, 2008 at 7:24 PM

No need to even report exit polls… unless McCain wins & you would like to tell us how off the exit polls were!!

The Pragmatist on November 4, 2008 at 7:24 PM

OMG Wolf Blitzer is about to destroy the Death Star! Or something.

Speedwagon82 on November 4, 2008 at 7:25 PM

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