Round one: IN, VA, OH, NC
posted at 6:52 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
Rather than have one unwieldy mega-thread for results, I’m going to break it up hour by hour. That’s truer to the “elimination round” nature of the early states that I talked about here, anyway.
Indiana and Virginia close at 7 p.m., Ohio and North Carolina follow half an hour later. McCain needs three at a bare minimum. Anything less, and you can start drinking. Hard liquor if you got it.
Exit quotation for meditation purposes while we wait: “Pal around together? What does that mean? Share a milkshake with two straws?”
Update: Lefty site MyDD claims to have gruesome swing-state exit poll data from inside sources. If they’re right, Obama wins Ohio by nine and Virginia by 10, which should make for reasonably early calls of both states. If those calls don’t come within the hour, it’s safe to say their data’s crap.
Update: I didn’t include Georgia in the states to watch because I figured it’d be safely red, The One’s GOTV efforts there notwithstanding. The longer it takes to call that, the more ominous it is.
Update: NBC’s predicting the Dems will pick up 12 House seats. Believe it or not, there were people on our side who expected the GOP to gain.
Update: Taegan Goddard says he has the exit poll data but doesn’t quite believe it, apparently because the margins are so lopsided. That jibes with MyDD’s data.
Update: For what it’s worth, the early indicators in Indiana aren’t good.
Update: NBC’s showing a huge lead for McCain among whites in Virginia, which surprises me. 18 points, I think.
Update: I spoke too soon: Hotline has Virginia exit poll data and says Obama leads among men by six and women by 12, which means his overall lead is around 10 points — exactly what MyDD had. Either those are the official exit polls or else someone’s circulating a bill of goods to a lot of leftish online outlets.
Update (Ed): Once again, I’d suggest that exit polling isn’t going to get a good look at this. Right now (6:39 pm), McCain’s up in Indiana with 19% of the precincts reporting by three points. Not great, but not bad, either, although Gary comes in late. After 2004, I’m waiting for actual votes rather than follow the exit polls.
Update: CNN’s map has Obama within a point with 25 percent reporting.