Round one: IN, VA, OH, NC

posted at 6:52 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit

Rather than have one unwieldy mega-thread for results, I’m going to break it up hour by hour. That’s truer to the “elimination round” nature of the early states that I talked about here, anyway.

Indiana and Virginia close at 7 p.m., Ohio and North Carolina follow half an hour later. McCain needs three at a bare minimum. Anything less, and you can start drinking. Hard liquor if you got it.

Exit quotation for meditation purposes while we wait: “Pal around together? What does that mean? Share a milkshake with two straws?”

Update: Lefty site MyDD claims to have gruesome swing-state exit poll data from inside sources. If they’re right, Obama wins Ohio by nine and Virginia by 10, which should make for reasonably early calls of both states. If those calls don’t come within the hour, it’s safe to say their data’s crap.

Update: I didn’t include Georgia in the states to watch because I figured it’d be safely red, The One’s GOTV efforts there notwithstanding. The longer it takes to call that, the more ominous it is.

Update: NBC’s predicting the Dems will pick up 12 House seats. Believe it or not, there were people on our side who expected the GOP to gain.

Update: Taegan Goddard says he has the exit poll data but doesn’t quite believe it, apparently because the margins are so lopsided. That jibes with MyDD’s data.

Update: For what it’s worth, the early indicators in Indiana aren’t good.

Update: NBC’s showing a huge lead for McCain among whites in Virginia, which surprises me. 18 points, I think.

Update: I spoke too soon: Hotline has Virginia exit poll data and says Obama leads among men by six and women by 12, which means his overall lead is around 10 points — exactly what MyDD had. Either those are the official exit polls or else someone’s circulating a bill of goods to a lot of leftish online outlets.

Update: Forgot to post an interactive map for you to follow results with. I’m using CNN’s and Politico’s.

Update (Ed): Once again, I’d suggest that exit polling isn’t going to get a good look at this.  Right now (6:39 pm), McCain’s up in Indiana with 19% of the precincts reporting by three points.  Not great, but not bad, either, although Gary comes in late.  After 2004, I’m waiting for actual votes rather than follow the exit polls.

Update: CNN’s map has Obama within a point with 25 percent reporting.


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Project Ocelot at 8:01 PM-

Projection is also a psychological infirmity.

It’s called depress the Western vote.

profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

11% of florida only

why is sc called reb when 57% obambi?

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

My doubt comes from all the democratic counties that haven’t reported yet- I’m not trying to be a downer, I’m just not going to carry a lot of false hope. I’m sick that so many American’s bought this sh*t head’s act.

anniekc on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

MO too close to call.
Alabama too close to call.
Mississippi too close to call.

haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

Fox News hasn’t called Pennsylvania yet.

terryannonline on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

PA has been called for Obama

haner on November 4, 2008 at 8:01 PM

Yes, by that famous political news service, haner.

JudetheFossil on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

McCain still leads Va, now with 16% in, 56-44%

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

Pennsylvania called for Obama, it’s over.

Typhonsentra on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

well its going to be a LONG night for some one!
grab a beer and a samich and watch the fun!

ColdWarrior57 on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

CNN calls PA for Obama on their website… 0% reporting… hubris

Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

Tennessee for McCain.

amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

jim m:

Why would I look at exit polls when real votes are coming in?

Terrye on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

How could they possibly call PA for Obama? It closed 5 minutes ago!

Oink on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

What is an election rookie?

joesamas mama on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

CNN calls PA for Obama on their website… 0% reporting… hubris

Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

whoops… i meant ABC News… called PA… hubris…

Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

PA went for Obama?!

Dammit to Hell. >.<

I’m going to check on dinner or something.

Ryan Gandy on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

CNN is just dumb for doing so.

taney71 on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

Early exit polls are tools to suppress the vote in the later time zones.

Stop walking into the trap.

Saltysam on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

11% of florida only

why is sc called reb when 57% obambi?

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:04 PM

SC will probably end up red in the end. They may be counting early voters or the electoral college’s decision, but I don’t know.

Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

Scoreboard44 on November 4, 2008 at 8:02 PM

No thanks. I’m movin’ south of the line, where I belong. Thank God

kareyk on November 4, 2008 at 8:07 PM

Please, what’s going on in Florida?

dish on November 4, 2008 at 7:38 PM

Per the Fox Map, Barry appears to have taken the I-4 corridor. The OC is a blowout, and Polk County looks to go blue too. Where’s the chocolate bunny?

Kid from Brooklyn on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

CNN king’s stupid mccain underperforming in rural vs bush
is making me sick

stick to fox please

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:08 PM

MCCONNELL WINS RE-ELECTION IN KENTUCKY.

amerpundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

PA is still voting… (lines were long and you get to finish casting your ballot if you were in line before 8 PM.)

Stop with the panic attacks people!

It’s the same Kerry okeedoke they tried 4 years ago.

Getta grip!

profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

If FOX calls PA for BHO I’ll believe it.

Com’on VA!!! Com’on OH!!!

rebuzz on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

What is an election rookie?

joesamas mama on November 4, 2008 at 8:06 PM

One that ignores the historical use of exit polling to call elections in the Eastern time zone by the MSM.

Saltysam on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

Obama is outperforming Kerry in Miami, Orlando and Tampa, but McCain is outperforming Bush04 in Palm Beach and up north.

DaveO on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Oh my God.

Dole Goes down.

Scoreboard44 on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

Va – 26% in, McCain leads 55-45%.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

If FOX calls PA for BHO I’ll believe it.

Com’on VA!!! Com’on OH!!!

rebuzz on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

exactly… don’t believe it.

Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Remember what Sean Malestrom said yesterday and so far he it appears he is on the money

With the ‘Obama leads’ that Philly and Pittsburg area comes in, and the myth that Obama is ahead 25 points (or whatever) in PA being believed by the anchors, they (MSM) will call PA early. But once all the rest of the state votes, they will have to turn it into a toss-up. They will be EXTREMELY reluctant to call the state for McCain even when the votes clearly show he has won there (and he *will* win there.)

Virginia will go to McCain but the networks won’t call it, because they won’t believe McCain has won it

LordMaximus on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Thanks Saltysam, you seem very smart, do you think Obama is going to win?

joesamas mama on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Dole flamed out.

Project Ocelot on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

Good news–McCain getting the needed cushion of pts in INdiana!

rebuzz on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

liddy gone

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

Cool Mitch won… but Dole lost

ScottieOSU2000 on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

NC is looking ugly. Dang ugly.

quikstrike98 on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

McCain looking pretty good so far here in Virginia. I’ll try to keep my dinner down when the northern counties start reporting.

flipflop on November 4, 2008 at 8:12 PM

florid’s closing 52% 46% still EARLY!!

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

Oh my God.

Dole Goes down.

Scoreboard44 on November 4, 2008 at 8:10 PM

We all knew that was gonna happen, so don’t worry about it.

Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

VA – Worth noting that the big NoVa counties, like Prince William, haven’t reported. Nor have counties like Surry County around Norfolks, which should be an interesting mix of military and urban voters.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

FOX is conspiring to ruin my night.

Project Ocelot on November 4, 2008 at 8:14 PM

Dole did flame out.

REGROUP!

Scoreboard44 on November 4, 2008 at 8:14 PM

Thanks Saltysam, you seem very smart, do you think Obama is going to win?

joesamas mama on November 4, 2008 at 8:11 PM

I’m not very smart. I’m calm.

Saltysam on November 4, 2008 at 8:14 PM

Achilles on November 4, 2008 at 8:13 PM

Absolutely.

Scoreboard44 on November 4, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Glad your calm Saltysam, but you seem very smart. I wish I were calm.

joesamas mama on November 4, 2008 at 8:16 PM

va and In looking good

too early fla oh

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:19 PM

Hey…we just shut down?

Scoreboard44 on November 4, 2008 at 8:19 PM

I think states dump in all the early voting tallies the second their polls close. It’s no surprise the early numbers look good for BO. The groupies did just what they were told – vote early.

Oink on November 4, 2008 at 8:23 PM

Getta grip!

profitsbeard on November 4, 2008 at 8:09 PM

I agree….exit poles are crap…MSM is crap…wait for the “real” results.

milwife88 on November 4, 2008 at 8:23 PM

ohio very early – big cleveland votes dem
cinncy is repub so good sign!

tex – obama w 1% ha ha

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:23 PM

joesamas mama on November 4, 2008 at 8:16 PM

If you’re looking for smart, consider profitsbeard, a very wise and pithy commenter.

Another favorite of mine is Limerick.

Huge craniums, both.

Me? I’m the cool daddy taking it slow by the fireplace. Got some Miles Davis on the stereo. No television.

Life is great.

Saltysam on November 4, 2008 at 8:23 PM

VA- now 34% in, McCain still up 55-45%

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:25 PM

Pennsylvania called for Obama, it’s over.

Typhonsentra on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 PM

McCain doesn’t need Pennsylvania but it would be nice to have.

Maxx on November 4, 2008 at 8:27 PM

PA called by MSNBC. Hold tight there. No precinct returns yet.

quikstrike98 on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM

VA looks pretty good right now… comon FL!

savant on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM

damn, my county is going to be last one counted in VA

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM

Thanks Saltysam I just started looking at Hot Air lately so I don’t know what to think I am just thankful there are people like ya’ll that think like me. It’s not cold enough here to have a fireplace yet, but I don’t have the television on. May make me depressed. I will check out those guys comments. Thanks so much!

joesamas mama on November 4, 2008 at 8:28 PM

gosh… ABC calling PA.. it would be safer to call CA… idiots… i can’t get over that.

Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM

Stary on target, people. Stay on target.

Vyce on November 4, 2008 at 8:29 PM

FOX calls PA for Obama

Fozzy Bear on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM

Pennsylvania called for Obama, it’s over.

Typhonsentra on November 4, 2008

That is not real yet. Fox said they just could not call this yet at all. They explained it well. Way too many variables.

JellyToast on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM

What county, Rightside?

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM

CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAP

Need FL, VA, OH – no questions

LordMaximus on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM

wtf fox calls penn bho

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM

Not great, but not bad, either, although Gary comes in late.

Gary is a third-world neighborhood. 100% black/100% Obama, and so retarded that the votes will come in very late.

Jaibones on November 4, 2008 at 8:30 PM

King George, we usually go 60/40 red.

rightside on November 4, 2008 at 8:32 PM

yeah, Va. is kinda ragged in their reporting. I bet Prince William will be after ya’ll, though.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM

Not giving up yet, but looking for the bright side, once again. My bright side is that people (of all races) with functioning brains will have another reason to tell race-grievance-liberals (of al races) to gft when they whine about “white racists”.

Jaibones on November 4, 2008 at 8:34 PM

On the dark side, the Supreme Court will be fucked up beyond all recognition for decades.

Jaibones on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM

wtf, they called PA for Obama, but show it at 49/49

brainy435 on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM

What the hell do they base Penn on? Exit polling?

cblesz on November 4, 2008 at 8:36 PM

Well, I’ll be darned – 8% of Prince Will has reported, and it’s 51-48% Obama. That’s not bad. But it’s only 8% of the Co.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:37 PM

lol, FOX shows McCain winning WVA, but Obama up by double digits. They don’t know anything.

brainy435 on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM

Chill people. Let’s wait until the votes are counted.

Semper Paratus

DrStock on November 4, 2008 at 8:38 PM

On the dark side, the Supreme Court will be fucked up beyond all recognition for decades.

Jaibones on November 4, 2008 at 8:35 PM

Frickin’ idiots. Just wait until district courts start releasing terrorists into the general public–and a circuit court of appeals doesn’t overrule them.

BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 8:39 PM

McCain up 53-47% with 46% of precincts reporting.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:39 PM

McCain up 53-47% with 46% of precincts reporting.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:39 PM

Where

Oink on November 4, 2008 at 8:40 PM

The PUMA site I read said all the PUMA voters in PA were intentionally lying to the exit pollers. So the exit polls are deliberately skewed because the PUMAS are still pissed at the DNC and Obama. They have total faith PA will go for McCain. The seem to be plugged in there.

karenhasfreedom on November 4, 2008 at 8:40 PM

Check out Michigan. Is there any way???

DrStock on November 4, 2008 at 8:40 PM

lol – sorry, that was for Va, Oink.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Yeah…Im pretty emo about Liz losing. I called/wrote her alot in NC. It’s upsetting that we have a liberal senator now, regardless of that idiotic ad she placed, etc. It was a TRUE ad, though. anyway…

Mommypundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:42 PM

pumas arent lying at exits. they dont like the manipulation of these exit polls across the nation. they lied to pollsters on the phone.

Mommypundit on November 4, 2008 at 8:43 PM

So what are they calling all of these states on – exit polls? Or actual numbers?

Nothing infuriates me more when they call a state with like 1% reporting.

Vyce on November 4, 2008 at 8:45 PM

McCain is actually ahead in the popular vote now, 8.2 million to 8.1 million.

jgapinoy on November 4, 2008 at 8:46 PM

Popular vote means nothing unfortunately.

Oink on November 4, 2008 at 8:47 PM

VA – 50% in, McCain up 52-48%. Nailbiter.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:48 PM

Argghh! Any check in from the McCain camp and their thoughts? Rove used to run around screaming at the networks to hold on…

cblesz on November 4, 2008 at 8:52 PM

VA – latest AP says with 57% of precincts reporting, McCain leads 51-49%.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 8:58 PM

audiotom on November 4, 2008 at 8:23 PM

exactly!! O up in tejas. sure.

road2utopia on November 4, 2008 at 9:00 PM

David Axelrod is a weasel.

BuckeyeSam on November 4, 2008 at 9:03 PM

God, I hate Axelrod!

cblesz on November 4, 2008 at 9:03 PM

This just in – the AP has called the planet Venus for Obama, with 0 precincts reporting. No word yet on Andromeda, but McCain advisors, speaking off the record because they’re not authorized to reveal internal polling data, have shared concerns over their chances.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 9:09 PM

VA – 60% in, McCain still up 51-49%

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 9:10 PM

Fox calls Ohio for Obama…it’s over???

txdoc on November 4, 2008 at 9:21 PM

VA – 70% in, and we’re knotted up at 50% each.

hawksruleva on November 4, 2008 at 9:39 PM

I’ll say again, quit watching t v and have some fun with Ed’s map. You can click through states and mouse over counties to see what’s going on. Scroll down to see some of the other state races. I am watching MN & PA right now.

Then when Megyn comes back on (she’s getting way too little air time) watch tv again.

Mr_Magoo on November 4, 2008 at 9:40 PM

Exit quotation for meditation purposes while we wait: “Pal around together? What does that mean? Share a milkshake with two straws?”

Judging by Ayers proclivities and Obama’s setting off gaydars within 100 yards, I would say “pal around together” = oral sex.

Blake on November 4, 2008 at 10:10 PM

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