Open thread: The official freaky deaky exit poll freakout post; Update: FL, IN, OH too close to call? Update: Black vote only 13%?
posted at 4:40 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
The polling firm’s sequestration ends promptly at five so the data should follow soon after. Here’s a thread for obsessing when it does. I’m being cute with the headline, for the record: There’s no need to freak out, as righties, lefties, and even your resident Eeyore agree that the data will oversample Democrats and distort what’s really happening on the ground. What could warrant some freakage is if it shows either a gigantic lead for Obama or a surprisingly small one. I’m expecting something on the order of seven points, although that’s based on nothing more than gut.
Geraghty notes that a strong showing for McCain here shouldn’t be taken too seriously either as it wouldn’t account for early voting, but the LA Times piece I linked up top claims that the polling firm’s been doing surveys to try to incorporate that data so some of it, at least, will be baked in the cake.
Stand by for updates once the poll is out.
Update: Did I seven points? Make it 10.
Update: Geraghty’s transcribing the data from Fox News TV and there’s already good news: New voters are only 10 percent of the electorate, a point less than they were four years ago. The bad news? They’re breaking much more heavily for The One — two to one on average in the the swing states mentioned — than they did for Kerry, who beat Bush 53/46.
More good news: McCain leads by 11 among late deciders Virginia and by 19 among white men in Ohio. And remember, those numbers are deflated by the exit poll skew.
Update: Drudge says Obama leads “big” without offering a number but Gawker has amazingly thin state margins in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.
Update: Now Drudge says Obama by 15 in Pennsylvania, directly contradicting Gawker. Let the exit poll chaos begin!
Update: It’s 6:15 and still no new data. But Drudge has this:
EXIT POLLS CLAIM ‘OBAMA +15′ IN PA… DEVELOPING…
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH…
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ… DEVELOPING…
Realistically, that’s the best news you could hope for. McCain still needs Pennsylvania to win in almost any scenario, but if the blue-leaning exits are that close in that many swing states, he’s got a shot.
Update (Ed): Mid-day exit polling will skew heavily to the Democrats. We saw that in 2004, when everyone panicked after they showed Kerry winning by wide margins. ABC reports that the black vote only slightly increased from 2004 and will only be 13% of the total vote — lower than most people predicted. Most of the predictions hit around 16%. That may be a huge problem for Obama, if the final numbers bear that out. In 2004, it was 11% of the vote, and went 88% to Kerry.
Blowback
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I swore that crap off years ago, but times like this may make me lay out a rail or two.
Alden Pyle on November 4, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Well, if it’s any indication of how the next four years will go, I’ve sold about 200 Impeach Obama bumper stickers so far. Let the fun begin.
Ronnie on November 4, 2008 at 10:02 PM
If it goes “O” I think we will all need some blow. Barack I am sure can remember whwre the good stuff is.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:02 PM
You got a website? I need one.
Alden Pyle on November 4, 2008 at 10:03 PM
FYI: Manley’s at the Round Three thread
BitterClinger on November 4, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Don’t give up on Florida……. many of the numbers we’re seeing are early voting. Still many counties haven’t reported their polls. McCain still up in OH.
Even though Obama up in PA, still alot of unreported areas.
This is all from the state websites
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enrpublic/f?p=130:MYRESULTS:0
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/
Fires1 on November 4, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Nor will I watch the inauguration, future State of the Union addresses or pres. news conferences.
TV will now become for movies, innocuous prime time crap, and the food channel. The MSM and cable news put this person in office and will never be forgiven.
FireBlogger on November 4, 2008 at 10:03 PM
http://www.republistuff.com/ doh, nevermind.
Alden Pyle on November 4, 2008 at 10:04 PM
People talking drugs? What’s up with that?
Connie on November 4, 2008 at 10:04 PM
othello can’t win pa by bigger margin than in NY. impossible, without ballot stuffing.
anti-boomer on November 4, 2008 at 10:04 PM
i stopped smoking saturday. not starting again now. keep ur nose candy.
anti-boomer on November 4, 2008 at 10:05 PM
WTF he will be the biggist deaker in the land
driver on November 4, 2008 at 10:05 PM
Its amazing how little people research these candidates.
flyboy777 on November 4, 2008 at 10:06 PM
Maybe he’ll serve it up at the re-de camp. Gotta do something to mellow the dissenters.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:07 PM
Sorry I’m drunk can’t spell
driver on November 4, 2008 at 10:07 PM
Just the one attached to my name.
Ronnie on November 4, 2008 at 10:07 PM
re-ed
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:07 PM
I cannot BELIEVE, if true, that there ARE so many freakin’ idiots in this country. Welcome to the Soviet Socialist States of America, coming soon!!
rtsidedragon on November 4, 2008 at 10:07 PM
CORRECTION, make that the Union of Soviet Socialist States of America.
rtsidedragon on November 4, 2008 at 10:08 PM
rtsidedragon on November 4, 2008 at 10:07 PM
YOU CAN THANK OUR SCHOOL SYSTEM!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:08 PM
McCain camp has given up
rsdm9154 on November 4, 2008 at 10:08 PM
I’ll be too busy killing goatherders to request blow.
anti-boomer on November 4, 2008 at 10:09 PM
THIS SUCKS
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:09 PM
The freakin’ idiots who are voting are a product of our illustrious public school system. The re-education started a generation ago, folks.
DrStock on November 4, 2008 at 10:10 PM
I think we’d be good at it….and it might be fun.
Seriously though, if we are going to save our conservative brand,(after the barrage Republicans took over the last four years from the MSM and leftist moonbats) we might need to inflict some heavy damage to our socialist bretheren. This shouldn’t be too difficult considering how terribly ineffective and un-American they are.
Goodeye_Closed on November 4, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Hey Manly where are you? Giving up and getting drunk after you told us MCain is the next president? Not nice. Come here and share the post mortem.
clemycali on November 4, 2008 at 10:11 PM
From Ronnie’s website:
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:11 PM
Ahchoo
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Goodeye_Closed on November 4, 2008 at 10:10 PM
We need to find some young conservatives to take on this fight!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Open to ideas.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:13 PM
One Presidential election can ruin your whole day.
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Anyone know how to make gigantic puppets? I’m pretty sure we need gigantic puppets.
Ronnie on November 4, 2008 at 10:15 PM
I can hear McCain now LET’S COME TOGETHER! as americans and support our new pres.
I am going to BARF!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:15 PM
this is what i spent 22 years in the Navy for? I’ve been voting since 1976, and unless things change radiacally in the next few years, this will be the last one. I love America, but i am so disappointed in Americans tonight. I hope it hurts…a lot. i’m mailing my voter’s registration card to the RNC and telling them where to stick it…
jehowe2nd on November 4, 2008 at 10:16 PM
Naw, now its just our turn to talk some serious shit for the next 4 years.
But, unlike theirs, ours will be true.
Hate to say it, Republicans have brought them on themselves.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:16 PM
Look on the bright side.
Next time round there will be millions more immigrants able to vote. Guess which way ?
JohninLondon on November 4, 2008 at 10:19 PM
I believe with with Obama as POTUS and the DEMS running everything a prophecy Ann Coulter made will come true.
AQ has won.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:20 PM
Next time I fly will be at least 2013.
Ronnie on November 4, 2008 at 10:22 PM
Not just the ‘pubs.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:23 PM
You mean this school system?
Connie on November 4, 2008 at 10:23 PM
McCain is preparing his surrender speech:”I would like to congratulation Mr. Obama for running an honorable campaign…”
For the Republican party, reality has finally caught up with them, you can’t expect to win election when you have abandoned your principles, disfranchised your base, it’s nothing more than just chickens coming home to roooooooost!
Borat on November 4, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Here’s a link for you all….
http://t-shirts.cafepress.com/item/dont-blame-me-i-voted-for-mccain-bumper-sticker-k/306984927
Order them up! ha!
cappy718 on November 4, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Thank you so much.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Welcome Comrad!
Think that will fool them while we regroup?
Riderbob on November 4, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Well I for one believe that Obama’s place of birth HAS NOT been settled. The birth certificate he produced was not even good enough to get a passport. I forget what the designation is, but there is the one Obama produced and then there is an “official” birth certificate.
An investigative reporter went to Kenya to get to the bottom of this and was stonewalled. In fact he was arrested and held for awhile.
Goodeye_Closed on November 4, 2008 at 10:24 PM
Is PA definitely gone ?
JohninLondon on November 4, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Connie, I got a name for that teacher, but my wife won’t let me use it.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Well, he wouldnt even be able to get a TS security clearance for the military or FBI…CIA…etc…but now he’s going to be in control of all of them…
INSANITY AT IT’S FINEST!!!
cappy718 on November 4, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Connie on November 4, 2008 at 10:23 PM
WOW now you know! this goes on thru High School and college
you have to admit it’s a great plan!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:29 PM
I have a friend in Kenya. It would be risky, but I’ll see what he can find out.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:29 PM
I am an Independent, Tempermental, Fundamental, right-wing, radical, Baptist, and I completely agree with you, Robert. The GOP Establishment have brought this disaster on themselves. Neo-conservatives and the inane comments from television pundits and panels. They’re the reason McCain became the nominee, NOT Evangelicals! They are in part responsible for Farrakhan boasting it’s a ‘New Beginning’ For Nation of Islam.
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 10:29 PM
So, it will be books on CD in my car to and from work, music on my computer at work, DVR’d crap on TV and movies. Oh, and compter games instead of blogs.
Denial and escapism are two of my greatest strengths.
Queen0fCups on November 4, 2008 at 10:30 PM
Let’s just hope he doesn’t get all the inside poop.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:31 PM
We as true conservatives better not bow to the pundits and politicians that say we need now to come together as a country and put our support behind the new president Hussein Obama!
And any Republican leader who says we must come together should be run out of office and will be replaced with a conservative that has a spine to fight!
This is day one, of the new campaign to destroy this man politically, as the democrats and there partners in the media tried to do to Bush from day 1 of his inauguration. For 8 long years the left and there partners in the press had ridiculed, mocked, lied and defamed this president relentlessly until this very day! We need to take our gloves off and fight for our principles and believes to no end, we must go after him and his Marxist ways with intensity that will overwhelm him and his comrades in congress and in the media. We need to stop walking on egg shells and stop the political correctness and trying to be above all the mud slinging “and let’s start throwing punches”
We as conservatives will never win another election if we don’t articulate our differences, with passion and fire to the electorate, so they can have a clear choice between capitalism and socialism. We also have to answer every lie/accusation that is made about our conservative policies from democrats or the media with truth, passion and forcefulness. To call those out on there lies and mistruths and destroy them at there own game. If it sounds like I am bitter and angry I AM! And I am sure I reflect the majority of conservative’s views, on this sad day when the American people were misled by the so many news outlets to vote for a man that could not get a security clearance to work for the FBI, but now sits in the most powerful office in the world. For me Hussein Obama is NOT my president and will never be my president, this has nothing to do with race, “don’t try playing the RACE card with me” it has to do with policies and PAYBACK! For the 8 years of hatred towards Bush, this is the beginning of a battle that will only end with there total destruction.
The WAR has just started and it better get ugly!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:31 PM
I am with you on this one…lol! I am done blogging for prolly a year or so…ha…
cappy718 on November 4, 2008 at 10:31 PM
Now do you kool aid drinkers believe the polls?
RayinVA on November 4, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Get lost, turd bucket.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Probably for the best, but one of my grandkids came home as early as last Spring and said Obama was the One. He was 9. The older grandson said recently, “Why bother voting? Obama’s gonna win.” Only my 6-yr. old redheaded granddaughter, when her mom asked who she thought she should vote for, said, “McCain.” She surprised the heck out of my daughter. I’m glad one of my grandkids is smart enough to buck the trend. What the teachers have done to kids during this election season is a travesty. I’d recommend everyone with the means to get their kids out of public schools.
Connie on November 4, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Even a broken clock is right twice a day
Queen0fCups on November 4, 2008 at 10:35 PM
gee, polls have been wrong the last two presedential elections and we were to just blindly jump on the wagon this time around?
GOP, learn from OBAMA, start your own ACORN. I am sure Obama got enough bogus votes to populate 7 more states.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Wow!!
The only hope I have left is for that bastard Murtha to lose in Pa.
Goodeye_Closed on November 4, 2008 at 10:36 PM
Lotsa’ talk of cocaine and ferocious revenge ’round here.
Is it me, or has this place changed a bit since they opened up registration the other day?
cgoode777 on November 4, 2008 at 10:36 PM
No it’s called fighting for what you Believe in!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:38 PM
It was a Swedish website that put up this video. No media in this country would ever do it.
Connie on November 4, 2008 at 10:38 PM
Tallk about coke was just alot of blow (pun intended)
Revenge? Don’t get mad, get even.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:39 PM
why am I not surprised!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Start our own ACORN? Sorry, bro, but some of us have principles.
Connie on November 4, 2008 at 10:40 PM
WOW, within 300k in NJ, this was NO blowout…
Mark Garnett on November 4, 2008 at 10:40 PM
Goota crash. Must get up and go to work to fuel Osamabamamessiah’s redistribution.
davidk on November 4, 2008 at 10:40 PM
Question to all who care to engage in this discussion. Have we, as conservatives and independents, neglected the impact our educational system has on our youth in teaching liberal views and basically avoiding to teach our kids about our country’s history? Is this perhaps a ‘platform’ of sorts that we’ve, as a collective whole, not really paid closer attention?
lyfsatrip on November 4, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Nite
Connie on November 4, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Can we start blaming the dems now or later for how crappie our economy is?
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:42 PM
It’s over….Obama takes VA Fox says….
cappy718 on November 4, 2008 at 10:42 PM
No.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:42 PM
RobertInLexington…are you in KY or where?
lyfsatrip on November 4, 2008 at 10:42 PM
Hey .. I’m with you .. and I kind of got the coke chitchat was tongue-in-cheek ..
I just don’t want this place to turn into our version of HuffPo .. we’re better than they are ..
Swore I wasn’t going to drink tonight … but there’s a bottle of 18 year old Macallan staring at me, and I have sorrows to drown …
*drrrrrrrrrink*
cgoode777 on November 4, 2008 at 10:43 PM
This Air Force member of 11 years voted absentee in TN and my state went to McCain….I’m dumbfounded by the rest of America…really…and I voted Kerry in 2004…ha!
cappy718 on November 4, 2008 at 10:44 PM
Question to all who care to engage in this discussion. Have we, as conservatives and independents, neglected the impact our educational system has on our youth in teaching liberal views and basically avoiding to teach our kids about our country’s history? Is this perhaps a ‘platform’ of sorts that we’ve, as a collective whole, not really paid closer attention?
lyfsatrip on November 4, 2008 at 10:41 PM
I AGREE FULLY!
we need to dismantle the public education system!
all it is a re-education camp for liberalism!
and union run!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:44 PM
The American people sense something is wrong. Americans know that we’re going in the wrong direction. Americans are hungry for answers! They urgently want new leadership. They urgently want new hope. They urgently want people who are courageously in a politically incorrect way will take us in a completely new direction! Governor Huckabee was the ONLY Republican who could have beaten Barck Hussein Obama in the debates. The media forced McCain and Romney onto us instead as the only candidates we conservatives had to choose from. Coulter, Hannity, Limbo, Ingraham, etc, they all picked Romney. Now look at the disaster we face. This is a COMPLETE DISASTER.
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 10:46 PM
You’re not alone.
DarkeningCloud on November 4, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Yes.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Time to bust open that bottle of wine. DAMN
rtsidedragon on November 4, 2008 at 10:48 PM
Before I DO, can anyone tell me the state of the MURTHA race?
rtsidedragon on November 4, 2008 at 10:48 PM
Since I started it, yes, it was all just tongue n cheek. Or maybe dollar bill in nose.
Just trying to keeps things a bit light hearted.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:49 PM
he won, 57%
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:49 PM
How long do you think Obama will last?
and will vegas have odds on this?
just asking!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:49 PM
RobertInLexington…are you in KY or where?
lyfsatrip on November 4, 2008 at 10:42 PM
Yes.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Me TOO!! Small world.
lyfsatrip on November 4, 2008 at 10:49 PM
POP gurgle gurgle gurgle
rtsidedragon on November 4, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Okay .. bad examples .. but there’s some posting going on around here that lowers the level of discourse ..
Should’ve found a better example.
Mea culpa.
cgoode777 on November 4, 2008 at 10:50 PM
on my 4th beer! gulp gulp gulp!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:51 PM
so as conservatives who do we lay blame for this?
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:52 PM
rtsidedragon,
murtha kept his seat. Can it get ant worse?
tuscan1 on November 4, 2008 at 10:52 PM
Yeah, I just moved here a week ago. A nice break from Austin, TX. It did my heart a world of good to be able to drive and not see an OBama sign every 30 feet.
What I like about KY, even the liberals, in Fayette county which voted heavly Obama, they didn’t ram it down your throat. I guess that is just southern manners for ya. I love it here.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:52 PM
The pundits and so-called conservatives will ask. Just wait and see. I wonder who’ll be first?
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 10:53 PM
Affirmative action is gone…let’s rejoice that…I got told that I could have been an officer in the military if I was a minority since I missed my test scores by one point…
cappy718 on November 4, 2008 at 10:54 PM
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 10:53 PM
it will be McCain
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:54 PM
I love it here.
RobertInLexington on November 4, 2008 at 10:52 PM
I moved here over 2 years ago from WI, and MN before that. Talk about your liberals…Al Frankken? Are you kidding me? After Jessie “The Body” Ventura I would have thought they’d learned their lesson. Oy vey is all I can say.
Where in Lex did you settle?
lyfsatrip on November 4, 2008 at 10:55 PM
cappy718 on November 4, 2008 at 10:54 PM
it’s only going to get worse
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:56 PM
I think you’re right again. 2 for 2.
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 10:56 PM
but hell I am not going to listen to him!
time2taketheglovesoffGOP on November 4, 2008 at 10:57 PM
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