Open thread: The official freaky deaky exit poll freakout post; Update: FL, IN, OH too close to call? Update: Black vote only 13%?

posted at 4:40 pm on November 4, 2008 by Allahpundit
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The polling firm’s sequestration ends promptly at five so the data should follow soon after. Here’s a thread for obsessing when it does. I’m being cute with the headline, for the record: There’s no need to freak out, as righties, lefties, and even your resident Eeyore agree that the data will oversample Democrats and distort what’s really happening on the ground. What could warrant some freakage is if it shows either a gigantic lead for Obama or a surprisingly small one. I’m expecting something on the order of seven points, although that’s based on nothing more than gut.

Geraghty notes that a strong showing for McCain here shouldn’t be taken too seriously either as it wouldn’t account for early voting, but the LA Times piece I linked up top claims that the polling firm’s been doing surveys to try to incorporate that data so some of it, at least, will be baked in the cake.

Stand by for updates once the poll is out.

Update: Did I seven points? Make it 10.

Update: Geraghty’s transcribing the data from Fox News TV and there’s already good news: New voters are only 10 percent of the electorate, a point less than they were four years ago. The bad news? They’re breaking much more heavily for The One — two to one on average in the the swing states mentioned — than they did for Kerry, who beat Bush 53/46.

More good news: McCain leads by 11 among late deciders Virginia and by 19 among white men in Ohio. And remember, those numbers are deflated by the exit poll skew.

Update: Drudge says Obama leads “big” without offering a number but Gawker has amazingly thin state margins in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio.

Update: Now Drudge says Obama by 15 in Pennsylvania, directly contradicting Gawker. Let the exit poll chaos begin!

Update: It’s 6:15 and still no new data. But Drudge has this:

EXIT POLLS CLAIM ‘OBAMA +15′ IN PA… DEVELOPING…
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH…
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ… DEVELOPING…

Realistically, that’s the best news you could hope for. McCain still needs Pennsylvania to win in almost any scenario, but if the blue-leaning exits are that close in that many swing states, he’s got a shot.

Update (Ed): Mid-day exit polling will skew heavily to the Democrats. We saw that in 2004, when everyone panicked after they showed Kerry winning by wide margins.  ABC reports that the black vote only slightly increased from 2004 and will only be 13% of the total vote — lower than most people predicted.  Most of the predictions hit around 16%.  That may be a huge problem for Obama, if the final numbers bear that out.  In 2004, it was 11% of the vote, and went 88% to Kerry.

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