Predictions

posted at 10:15 am on November 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

Now or never. Electoral votes and popular vote percentages — leave ’em in the comments for gloating/mockery purposes tomorrow night. If you want to refine your EV metric rather than just blindly guess, the CNN calculator is at your service.

You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220, with The One pulling 51 percent nationwide to McCain’s 47. I gave McCain Ohio partly because he and Palin have spent so much time there but mainly because I don’t have the stomach to sketch out a truly gruesome landslide, my reputation for Eeyore-ism notwithstanding. I gave Obama Florida because (a) he’s owned the airwaves there for months, and never more so than very recently; (b) McCain’s advantage among Hispanics in the state is negligible, reflecting Obama’s big lead among that demographic nationally plus the fact that there are now more Hispanic Dems in Florida than Republicans; (c) The One’s ground game has always been superior to McCain’s and he’s made Florida, naturally enough, a special target; and (d) if, as I expect, he wins the popular vote, that has to translate into some big state victories. So Florida it is.

If you disagree and are looking for a McCain victory scenario, your task is simple: Find a way to flip no fewer than 50 blue EVs below into Maverick’s column. Even Pennsylvania and Florida won’t do it; he needs Virginia too or else one of the western states, the likeliest of which would be Nevada. And of course he has to hold Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are now within a point.

You’re welcome to predict the Senate races if you like. I don’t have the stomach for that, either.


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