Predictions

posted at 10:15 am on November 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

Now or never. Electoral votes and popular vote percentages — leave ‘em in the comments for gloating/mockery purposes tomorrow night. If you want to refine your EV metric rather than just blindly guess, the CNN calculator is at your service.

You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220, with The One pulling 51 percent nationwide to McCain’s 47. I gave McCain Ohio partly because he and Palin have spent so much time there but mainly because I don’t have the stomach to sketch out a truly gruesome landslide, my reputation for Eeyore-ism notwithstanding. I gave Obama Florida because (a) he’s owned the airwaves there for months, and never more so than very recently; (b) McCain’s advantage among Hispanics in the state is negligible, reflecting Obama’s big lead among that demographic nationally plus the fact that there are now more Hispanic Dems in Florida than Republicans; (c) The One’s ground game has always been superior to McCain’s and he’s made Florida, naturally enough, a special target; and (d) if, as I expect, he wins the popular vote, that has to translate into some big state victories. So Florida it is.

If you disagree and are looking for a McCain victory scenario, your task is simple: Find a way to flip no fewer than 50 blue EVs below into Maverick’s column. Even Pennsylvania and Florida won’t do it; he needs Virginia too or else one of the western states, the likeliest of which would be Nevada. And of course he has to hold Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are now within a point.

You’re welcome to predict the Senate races if you like. I don’t have the stomach for that, either.


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We’re talking about reality here, right?

My predictions:

Electoral College: Obama 338 – 200 McCain.
(BHO: CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI), plus DC

Popular vote will be 6 points in favour of Obama, somewhere around 52.5 to 46.5 (1 point for “Other”, including my write-in vote for Zombie Reagan).

Dems will top out at 58 in the Senate, 253 in the House.

SeoulMan on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM

Well Obama has the fraudulent vote block locked in, but is it enough to counter the legitimate votes for McCain? Hmmmmmm

Princeps on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM

You must be an ACORN operative. You have NV voting twice ;)

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 11:21 AM

No, but I write software you probably use. Setting a variable twice to the same value only slows things down a bit, it doesn’t change the sum. I’ve been writing your software for a long time now…

DarkCurrent on November 3, 2008 at 11:44 AM

My greatest joy of a McPalin victory will be to see Michael Smurfconish get roasted. Why, Allah, do you still have that pseudo still on the blogroll?

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Oh yeah, I can’t stand that guy anymore, he ruins 1210 Big Talker. It’s particularly nauseating to watch him on MSNBC pandering to all those a-holes (am I allowed to say that?)

Moxie on November 3, 2008 at 11:44 AM

No offense AP, but your map will turn out being wrong. My guess is McCain will win FL and be very close if not win VA. Additionally, I think he will pick up NV and NM. The wildcard in my book is PA which I think he stands a very good chance of winning. You are letting the polls get to you and with some upwards of 85% hangup rate, they are NOT science and should be held with very little regard.

dengar007 on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM

There’s been this pervasive notion that Barry has this all sewed up, to the point that I suspect many folks won’t bother getting to the polls. Don’t discount the lazy and inept

i’ve heard stories from friends about hearing young (i mean young young) people talking about “voting next friday”, “no, i can so totally vote online this year”, and “i go to the county courthouse to vote, who cares where i live”

one of the great things about being the leader of a third-world-style-marxist-”people’s movement” is that your followers are sometimes not the sharpest tools in the shed, civically-speaking

battleoflepanto1571 on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM

Watch yourselves out there guys and gals…be safe.

tomas on November 3, 2008 at 11:46 AM

McCain will win tomorrow. Don’t trust the polls meant to suppress Republican turnout. It won’t happen.

My destruction of polls:

With an 80% refuse to answer rate and the obfuscation caused by Rush’s Operation Chaos and the PUMA’s, this is going to be a rough, cold night for those million people in Grant Park.

PastorJon on November 3, 2008 at 11:50 AM

I’m a Virginian, and I don’t think Obama will win VA (although, if it wasn’t for HotAir and people like ManlyRash, I probably wouldn’t be saying this). The black vote may tip it towards Obama but a lot of the “redneck” types and the white, working-class voters (both Republicans and Democrats) may not let that happen. The majority of the people I see who flaunt Obama/Biden signs are black people and some college kids. Last election, I saw Kerry/Edwards signs left and right on the cars of both black and white people.

I have emphasized this a million times as well: Tim Kaine is a real pro-lifer, Jim Webb is pro-Confederate (and he still won by only a razor-thin margin), and Mark Warner is a moderate, period. I will say this, though; if Virginia falls tomorrow, we’re in some deep trouble, but with cautious optimism, I doubt that will happen.

EVERYBODY JUST GET OUT AND VOTE! Vote for McCain/Palin 08!

Achilles on November 3, 2008 at 11:52 AM

If McCain/Palin loses, expect the next VP pick to be one who brings a specific blue state into our column.

Speedwagon82 on November 3, 2008 at 11:54 AM

Want a franchise for a new business?

either orr’s exploded brains cleanup service. Ready for operation 5 Nov 2008. All you need are rubber gloves and a strong stomach.

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:14 AM

hahahahahahahah

scalleywag on November 3, 2008 at 11:54 AM

McCain wins with 275 Electoral Votes to Barry’s 263.

McCain wins: ID, NV, MT, WY, UT, AZ, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MN, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, OH, WV, PA, VA, NH, AK, and 1 of the 4 EVs in Maine. (Upsets in bold)

Barry wins: WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, IA, MO, WI, IL, MI, NC, DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, CT, RI, MA, HI AND 3 OF THE 4 EVs in Maine.

Don’t burst my bubble yet.

omnipotent on November 3, 2008 at 11:55 AM

ClintACK on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Maybe I’m wrong, in fact I hope I am, but I disagree. I know the country has come a long way since the Rodney King fiasco but I remember coming home from school here in Michigan and being SHOCKED by the violence being generated by the results of that single trial, even with all of the evidence that the police (while maybe overstepping their bounds a bit) had reason to use force.
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This is MUCH bigger.
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That being said, I don’t think we have to much to worry about from Detroit or any of the historic ‘riot’ cities here in the Mid West, Call me an optimist but I think that Detroiters have grown up alot. And I agree that non-voting college vandals are going to be not only plentiful but kinda fun. But there will be riots, in LA and San Francisco I think, and it wont fit into the Race-Riot niche either, I think your going to see a lot of extremely angry liberals, deciding that they’re justified in their violence.
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Just a thought.
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And to all of those calling for Allah’s head, cut the guy some slack, if so many of us weren’t hard headed we’d be in the same boat as him. Luckily I find wisdom in my fathers words that 1 depressed Republican is more powerful then 50 gleaful Democrats, you know, with the fact that we actually show up and vote.
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Oh, and DUDE! I get to post on frikkin Hot Air! My day is made!

Raymer on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 AM

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:07 AM

Edward Jenner

image:Edward_Jenner.jpg
Edward Jenner (May 17, 1749 – January 26, 1823) was an English country doctor practicing in Berkeley, Gloucestershire, England, made famous by his invention of the vaccine.

…He studied anatomy and surgery under the guidance of John Hunter, a prominent surgeon in London, then returned to Berkeley to start a practice….

One of Jenner’s interests was hot air ballooning. Together with the owner of Berkeley Castle, he made a successful flight to nearby Stroud. The spot where the balloon descended is today the location of the “Air Balloon” public house.

Jenner is included in the 2002 ”100 Greatest Britons” poll sponsored by the BBC and voted for by the public.

ronsfi on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 AM

McCain gets 49% of the popular vote to Barry’s 48%.

omnipotent on November 3, 2008 at 11:57 AM

Keep your eyes on those Philly suburbs. If they trend McCain, which would be a reversal from Kerry and Gore, we’ll be in good shape. And so far I’ve had three visits from McCain volunteers at my door this weekend.

Keep the faith!

PA Guy on November 3, 2008 at 11:58 AM

Does Karl Rove have an axe to grind? How can he possibly predict over 300 for BHO? What does he know that the rest of the country doesn’t?

sherry on November 3, 2008 at 11:58 AM

mmm hmmm….i don’t see it, allah..methinks you’ve been breathing deep of the MSM noise and are a little dizzy. the polls you are counting on as your tea leaves are weighted towards democrats to a degree thats NEVER been reflected in an actual, you know, ELECTION…including 2006, when the gop was completely demoralized and angry at its own congress.

I expect the electoral map to look an awful lot like 2004, with maybe a NH type state tossed into the red…I don’t see O winning any states that Kerry lost. Why would I ?

The basic realities of the election, aside from all the spin and wishful thinking, to me, appear to be: 1: Obama adds nothing to the democratic ticket demographically that they didn’t already have, blacks and college kids already vote for the dem ticket overwhelmingly…what does obama add ? where do his non kerry votes come from, exactly ?

2: McCain , on the other hand, as a proven, documented centrist, will garner votes from the middle that Bush could never hope to win, no ? I live in ny, not exactly a hotbed of conservatism, and anecdotally, I know a ton of dems voting for mccain, and no republicans voting for the One.

3: and where, o where, do you presume those 18 million hilary votes went ? into thin air ? you wish, i think…to expect Obama to beat mccain in states where he couldn’t beat hillary seems overly optimistic if not delusional….

4: going into the election cycle, I had one fear, that McCain as the nominee would make turnout for the GOP lukewarm at best…but the selection of Palin has completely erased that concern, the base is not fired up, and it’s still a center right country at heart. Maybe there are enough goldfish and dead folks to swing a battleground state, but i highly doubt it.

but we shall see..hopefully tomorrow, but maybe in a few weeks !! LOL

johngalt on November 3, 2008 at 12:00 PM

I should point out, I mean that one depressed Republican is more dangerous to Democrats then 50 Gleaful Democrats are to Republicans.
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Yeah, I should probably be more articulate.

Raymer on November 3, 2008 at 12:03 PM

G’day From Australia !

One of the largest betting agencies here, Centrebet, is offering 7.25 to 1 for McCain.

I`m so confident that the American people will make the right decision, that I’ve put $800 on McCain. The winning $5800 will pay for a good chunk of my planned US holiday next year !

C’mon USA !!

gozzak on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

I hope you enjoy your trip to the USA next year. You should stop by and visit President McCain.

I’m betting on Americans making the right decision too – not $800, but still banking on us telling Obamnumism we don’t want it.

kybowexar on November 3, 2008 at 12:06 PM

My projections

McCain 278
Obama 257

OR

McCain 318
Obama 217

julian on November 3, 2008 at 12:07 PM

Ah, all Eeyore all the time for senior Allah. Shocking, shocking I tell ya! Whatevs, just go fuckin vote people, this prediction shit doesnt matter. Eeyores, trolls and other scum of this blog, ya’ll can lick my balls when McCain/Palin bring this shit home tomorrow….

Baraky on November 3, 2008 at 11:00 AM

Knock off the F-word here Baraky…. this is NOT KOS.

Maxx on November 3, 2008 at 12:08 PM

A note on “undecideds”…

I voted early, and I voted for McCain. However, I was unsure about who I was going to vote for even as I pulled into the parking lot at the polling station. I put off early voting as long as I could, and finally just went to get it over with, because it was stressing me out so much. I had been waiting to see if there would be a “surprise” on one side or the other–something that was so horrible that it would basically make my decision for me, and that never happened. Darn, no easy way out.

So basically, here’s where I was at: For all the insults flying around about undecided voters, I’m not stupid or shallow or uninformed. I’m not super intellecual, and I don’t see myself as better than anyone else. I tend to vote Republican, because I am fiscally conservative and have family serving in the military, but I don’t call myself a Republican, because I am more socially liberal and definitely not evangelical. (I’m NOT criticizing evangelicals, I am just saying that I would not consider myself part of the Christian Right. I am NOT anti-Christian.) I don’t think George Bush has been a strong president, but I also don’t think he is the Root of All Evil, either. I think there are good people on both sides, and there are complete mental cases on both sides.

Anyway, where I was at, and where most other people I know who are undecided are at, is that I wish I could have voted for Obama, BUT, there’s just something missing, a feeling in my gut that just wouldn’t let me push the button for him. On the surface, he has run a better campaign and he does seem to be more “presidential” than McCain. And who doesn’t want all that free stuff??? But when you scratch the surface, what’s there? His actions don’t match his words, and he’s got NO EXPERIENCE to look back on and compare to. McCain has experience and actions that match his words, and people won’t be jumping for joy that they get to vote for him, but he’s a better alternative than a total unknown quantity. You know what you’ll get when you vote for McCain, and even if you don’t like it all, that’s a lot less scary than looking at all the scenarios under Obama. Times are unsure enough, people aren’t going to take that much of a risk.

I am comfortable with my vote for McCain, and I know I did the right thing.

I think most undecideds will break for McCain. My best friend in MI surprised me last night by telling me she was going to vote for McCain, and she is a hard-core Dem who absolutely HATES Sarah Palin. But she has that same gut feeling about Obama, and she knows a couple people too…

Race has nothing to do with it, it will all come down to experience and trust.

McCain will win. Obama has just not closed the sale.

Sorry for the long post, thanks for reading this far. Free no-doze for all!

Boudica on November 3, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Selectoral College:
McCain 273
Obama 275

Same map as 2004, but Virginia falls to Obamination.

Popular vote:
Obama 49%
McCain 48%

peski on November 3, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Selectoral College:
McCain 273
Obama 275265

Same map as 2004, but Virginia falls to Obamination.

Popular vote:
Obama 49%
McCain 48%

peski on November 3, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Fixed typo.

peski on November 3, 2008 at 12:14 PM

Boudica on November 3, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Thanks for the honestly, Boudica.

That is exactly why Obama will loose this election. You all recall that “light” Barry talked about?

I don’t think God is ready for Obama to be president. (if He so desires, well we have deserved it; however, I don’t believe He wants this pompous pretender to be “god” just yet.)

I think there are enough Americans to see through Obama’s baloney.

McCain/Palin – largest GOP victory in years!
Headline – Obama Defeats Obama!

kybowexar on November 3, 2008 at 12:16 PM

Boudica on November 3, 2008 at 12:11 PM

I think your experience matches much of what will happen tomorrow. Folks walking into the voting booth not quite sure until they finally MUST make a choice, and making the only rational choice. Dunno if that’s going to be enough to pull it out, but . . . from your lips to God’s ears.

Pavel on November 3, 2008 at 12:17 PM

McCain 282 (50%)
Obama 256 (48%)

I live in Florida and there is NO WAY on this or any other planet that it is going for Obama!

I’m also giving Mac VA, PA, OH and one of the Maine votes. The coal comments are going to be the last straw for voters in PA and OH.

Kirin on November 3, 2008 at 12:21 PM

From last night’s QoD, Jester from India sends us an important message

I’ve been a silent spectator here for most of this election season. I come to hotair because it is a haven of sorts for people who believe in free-market economics, small government and democracy. I believe in all of those. The only way in which I differ from quite a few of you is that I’m halfway across the world, in India (no, I do not work in tech support, and no, I cannot and will not fix your computer :D) and cannot vote in this election of yours.

But I’m following the election very closely because the world seems to be at a tipping point, precariously balanced on a peak. On one side of the peak lie Capitalism and freedom, on the other side lie socialism and misery. The next president of the US will determine the direction the US takes, and let’s be honest, with a democrat controlled legislature, a president Obama could ram full-blown socialism down the world’s throat in less than a year. I’ve lived in a socialist country. Socialism destroyed my country for 45 years after we gained independence. But the last decade and a half, we’ve moved towards capitalism and free markets, and I’ve seen it work with my own eyes.

If the US gives up on free-markets, the world will follow suit. The US has been a beacon of freedom (economic and otherwise) for decades, and has served as an example for nations around the world. This election is about people who want to snuff that beacon. This is for the soul of the world.
I see many people here feeling despair at every little thing McCain or his campaign does. I see people here who scream that the media is in the tank, but accept that Obama is inevitable with the very next breath. I see people cribbing about holding their nose and voting for McCain, as if they’re doing others a favour.

WHAT THE FREAKING HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU?

If you’re giving up right now with two days to go, shame on you! You don’t deserve to be a pimple on George Washington’s behind!

And then I see people like ManlyRash, rallying the troops, so to speak. I cannot estimate the effect hotair has on the elections – nobody can, but understand this. The effect is very much there. I’ve learned more about Politics from this site (and Captain’s Quarters before that) than from all the major newspapers combined. And if you’re affecting my opinion all the way here in India, think of the effect you guys are having in your own country.

Don’t give up hope. Don’t sit idle in despair. Get up, get up, get up and fight with the old bastard. He’s suffered boatloads for you all. Do this to respect his sacrifice. Do this to respect those 5 years of freedom he gave up to fight for yours. I would be proud to vote for a man like him.

I’m going to repeat what ManlyRash has been saying for ages now – McCain’s going to win, and win big! Get off your butts and drag him across the line. Play your part in saving the world’s soul.

Jester on November 3, 2008 at 1:32 AM

Entelechy on November 3, 2008 at 12:24 PM

VIRGINIA WILL GO RED…HAVE NO DOUBT.

Any pollster who tells you it won’t is flat out lying.

There are WAY more Mccain/Palin signs here than Osama signs.

And the only reason it went blue in the local elections was because the rep. candidate was very unpopular and conservative turnout was low…still they only won by 10,000 votes.

Don’t worry conservative turnout will be HUGE this year in VA.

Last time we won by ten points..expect the same or higher this year.

SaintOlaf on November 3, 2008 at 12:28 PM

I predict that my fellow Americans are still a unique and independent lot, and they will show the world a big finger, socialist/Marxist lemmings be damned.

I predict that the Guardian and the Daily Mirror will write this headline for Wednesday morning “How can 62 million Americans be this dumb?”.

Entelechy on November 3, 2008 at 12:32 PM

That’s a great post Boudica. I’ll have to agree with you about being socially liberal and fiscally conservative; I am that way, too. It’s called classic liberalism, and it is what real liberals are. Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, and many moderate libertarians share these views. Today’s “liberals” are just socialists bearing the name liberalism (Bill Clinton is an exception, since he passed NAFTA and advocated Third-Way politics, which may be why some Clintonites are going for McCain).

Glad you decided to vote for McCain. Liberty and capitalism depend on it (And I’m not joking or being some kinda echo chamber freak with this line. With Obama’s radical ties, his casual socialism, New Deal 2.0, and the Fairness Doctrine among others)!

Achilles on November 3, 2008 at 12:36 PM

Does no one here remember 2004? Or 2000?

States were being called the wrong way on election day. I don’t think there was anyone that thought Bush was going to win when they went to work on that day, and even by late evening pundits were still convinced it was going to be Kerry in the White House. Come the end of the night, though, everything had changed.

Did everyone suddenly change their minds on who they were voting for on that day to give it to Bush? No. The polls and pundits were shown to be very, very fallible, and I guarantee you this hasn’t changed for the 2008 elections. As a matter of fact, the polls and pundits during this election’s primary process has been shown to be very, very fallible… so why are we chosing the believe them?

I guarantee this election does not stand the way the major media polls are showing– in the same way it didn’t in 2004.

I believe that not only are the polls misjuding the election again, but that those very large numbers of undecideds still out there are not going to be falling for Obama. With all the hype and enthusiasm, they would have already, if they were going to.

This is won for McCain, and I would imagine by a larger spread than 2004. I’ve fallen for the media predictions during the last two election cycles– no more.

12thMonkey on November 3, 2008 at 12:43 PM

I have to say Allah I hope you’re wrong. I did my own optimistic prediction, and had Mccain winning a squeeker. However, I noticed that if things swing completely for McCain thanks to the undecideds, McCain could win as many as 295 electoral votes (including 1 from maine).

therambler on November 3, 2008 at 12:43 PM

Achilles on November 3, 2008 at 12:36 PM

Thanks. I will definitely be making a trip to the library very soon to begin my political science education. I have always voted, but this election has really gotten me interested in going beyond the basics.

And you’re right, so much does depend on this election.

At this point it’s all one-on-one, we just have to keep talking to people, and get them to go vote.

Boudica on November 3, 2008 at 12:57 PM

I hope you’re wrong, Allah. I really hope you are.

Unlike some of the idiots on this site, however, I don’t hold a grudge against you for making an educated guess.

MadisonConservative on November 3, 2008 at 12:58 PM

Entelechy on November 3, 2008 at 12:24 PM

I caught that, too. One of the best defenses of McCain’s candidacy I’ve seen, and it comes from halfway around the globe. I believe in conservatism, and I believe with all my heart in the innate BS-detection ability of the American population. We sometimes fail, but get it right more often than not. Jester, thanks for your words. And ManlyRash, you’ve been indispensable to the HotAir community, with your informative and upbeat comments. I’ve also mailed you a tube of medicinal cream to help with your ManlyRash. And for goodness sake, wear a raincoat next time :)

Flyover Country on November 3, 2008 at 1:01 PM

McCain 286, 0bama 252 is my guess. Either way, I think it will be a thin margin of victory, not the “landslide” victory that the media keep talking about.

Princeps on November 3, 2008 at 1:21 PM

Entelechy on November 3, 2008 at 12:24 PM

Great post. Thanks, Entelechy. What is QoD, by the way?

Fortunata on November 3, 2008 at 1:30 PM

If it’s any encouragement to folks, we just had a fed election in Canada for which the polls right up to the last minute predicted a squeaker. When the ballots were counted, the Conservatives ended up reducing the Liberals to their second lowest seat count in history.

Just sayin’.

Gaunilon on November 3, 2008 at 1:30 PM

Some people here might remember the shock election win by the Congress Party in India five years ago. The economy was good, everything was on the uptick and there had been no major scandals (by Indian standards), the polls all indicated a comfortable win for the incumbent BJP. Turned out, the pollsters had only sampled the relatively easy to reach population in the urban centers. They didn’t count on the millions of semi-literate peasants in the country, who may not read too well but came out and swept them all away. They hadn’t shared in the economic miracle (they thought) and they were mad.

In our case I don’t think it’s simply pollsters’ incompetence, I think it’s also willful manipulation. I sense a real “shy Tory” effect, it’s a cultural difference between conservatives and loudmouth liberals, but I think we’ll quietly vote for the “uncool” candidate.

Fortunata on November 3, 2008 at 1:41 PM

Selectoral College:
McCain 273
Obama 275265

Same map as 2004, but Virginia falls to Obamination.

Popular vote:
Obama 49%
McCain 48%

peski on November 3, 2008 at 12:13 PM

Fixed typo.

peski on November 3, 2008 at 12:14 PM

For a moment there I thought you found the 7 missing states.

HeavyHair on November 3, 2008 at 2:02 PM

Obama in a very, very close race that won’t be decided until all the votes are counted. Sadly “career” democrats will tow the party line regardless of facts. Many independents have bought into the racial healing, historic moment BS and are voting color alone closing their eyes and ears to anything that will burst this utopian insanity. The MSM has been afflicted with terminal BDS for years and has worked very hard to poison the conservative brand with a historically unmatched bias favoring the Democrats. Sometimes the good guys lose.

Healing we will Feel!

dmann on November 3, 2008 at 2:04 PM

Obama takes ME, MA, RI, NY, CT, NJ, DE, MD, MI, WI, IL, MN, IA, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI.

McCain takes NH, PA, IN, OH, WV, VA, NC, SC, TN, MS, AL, FL, GA, LA, AR, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MT, WY, ID, NV, UT, AZ, AK.

Final Tally:
McCain 290
Obama 248

BostonBeatnik on November 3, 2008 at 2:08 PM

Healing we will Feel!

dmann on November 3, 2008 at 2:04 PM

If so, we’ll all just move to Canada. Isn’t that what the libs always say? Where, BTW, they’ve just re-elected the conservatives.

Fortunata on November 3, 2008 at 2:09 PM

McCain – 278
Obama – 260

Texas Rainmaker on November 3, 2008 at 2:13 PM

McCain-310
Obama-228

McCain-52%
Obama-48%

mrsmwp on November 3, 2008 at 2:16 PM

Fortunata…..
Canada is to cold, we need to find someplace warmer! ;->

dmann on November 3, 2008 at 2:26 PM

dmann on November 3, 2008 at 2:26 PM

Nah, global warming is going to make it just like the Bahamas. In in Obama’s America, you will be forbidden to turn the air conditioning up, and you won’t be able to afford it in any case.

Fortunata on November 3, 2008 at 2:31 PM

Obama wins.

Deal closed.

robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 2:32 PM

robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 2:32 PM

I say Pooh! to your prediction.

Fortunata on November 3, 2008 at 2:34 PM

Below is Mcguyver’s prediction:

McCain 428, ……Obama 110, …………..!!!!!!

Click on Image to enlarge:

The way I arrived at this prediction is by left clicking on each individual state at CNN and then on the “VIEW PREVIOUS OHIO WINNERS” for example.

Every state that had less than a 10% win for Kerry I put into Red for John McCain, with the exception for Vermont.

The reason for that is because Vermont loved John McCain in the primary (by 68%) and I cannot see even these New England liberals vote for a socialist, they are pretty independent there.

In California, Kerry won by only 9%, believe it or not, so I had to paint it red, too ( McCain was California’s favorite in the primary).

Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois were won by Kerry with less than 10% but because the Democrat candidates are from there I had to paint them blue.

I almost threw in NJ as well, but I’m going easy on Obama.

I know you are thinking that I’m crazy.

But follow me here:

1) We’ve had several anonymous posters at Hillbuzz.com, that stated, the internals from Obama’s own campaign know….. that, they have to have a 10% lead in order to win because of the Bradley effect.

2) All the leads in all the polls have Democrats heavily weighted in their sampling. Implying of course, that more Democrats will be voting….. and I beg to differ.

Not too mention that they have anywhere from a 60% – 80% poll refusal rate.

So, who’s responding to polls? Answer: Not voters who are flipping to McCain!!

Because of the enthusiasm for Palin, more Republicans will be voting, and, the early votes in California bear that out, for example.

2a) The pollsters are weighting undecideds heavily in the polls as well. And those are now trending towards McCain.

3) I lived on the Left Coast for a decade, and the friends I know that would be registered Democrat or Independent, and voted for Kerry, would NEVER… EVER… vote for a socialist Obama!!

On more occasions than I can count, here in the HotAir comments, we’ve seen people reporting that friends and family members who have voted straight Democrat ticket for years…., will be voting McCain!!!

So why don’t you try it at CNN and see what predictions you come up with?

Mcguyver on November 3, 2008 at 2:47 PM

Oh… I forgot…

Because even the people who believe that Obama will win (but are voting for McCain) will be voting the GOP back into a lead in the House and.. into the Senate!!

Mcguyver on November 3, 2008 at 2:50 PM

As a new “Hot’er”, (I’m a guy or I’d be a HOTTIE), but anyway I have made my call on page 2 but would like to STATE AGAIN that part of the main reason for poll poop is that this year, for the first time ever in polling, the number of NON-RESPONCES is HUGE! Again, I state, if these were for Obama the King we’d know it… These are folks that do NOT want to participate in the phoney polls, they do NOT want to be called racist / redneck…

If we have 70% that are REFUSING to answer, what should that tell us that have faith in the American people…

I believe that McCain will win 281 to 257…

Put it in the bank…. ( oh wait, that’s Mr.Rash’s line )

Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 2:52 PM

I selected all the states I think McCain will win and it added up to 260. Oy.

He needs 2 of 3 western states to put him over the top: Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, unless he wins Pennsylvania.

Lincoln on November 3, 2008 at 2:57 PM

McCain 274-Obama 264. McCain wins every state Bush did in 2000.

Bravesbill on November 3, 2008 at 3:12 PM

Mcguyver’s (update @4:012 P.M.)

I see a commenter” thinks I’m silly..

Let me reiterate this and use California as an example because McCain was the primary favorite there.

Now first, let’s throw in the Hillary supporters…. what do you guess.. 20% of them?

Give me a number.

Remember, Hillary won the primaries after the Jeremiah tape surfaced, except for the Texas caucus portion.

How many “socialists” surprises have we learned about Obama since then? give me a number…

Obama would not have won Iowa, or the Texas caucus if it were a closed primary, because when you have to audibly call your vote out loud, you don’t want to be considered a racist
(I have blogged about this before in other posts here and the same goes for Huckabee the evangelical vs. Romney the Mormon).

Now throw in the voters who absolutely were not voting for McCain even in CA…. and throw in the passion that Palin added.
Now, you can count on the Republicans that were not voting for McCain in the general election, to now be motivated to vote for the Palin/McCain ticket.

Now, reread THE ABOVE….

…who has been losing, losing, losing and losing more and more support?

Who has been adding support and adding more base support, process repeat, repeat again?

Mcguyver on November 3, 2008 at 4:13 PM

I live in Indiana, and while anything is possible I don’t think Obama will carry this state.

I make no predictions, other than I think McCain can carry Florida no matter how many annoying ads Obama has run. Sometimes I wonder if that starts to be a negative at some point.

And I think McCain has a good shot at Nevada and Virginia too.And I think McCain has a shot at Pennsylvannia too.

On popular vote, closer to 50/50.

Terrye on November 3, 2008 at 4:15 PM

I’m not going to watch tomorrow. I will let Moon Griffon here in Louisiana tell me who won on Wed on my way to work. I won’t be able to take the exit polls which will be way over-inflated for Obama.

Plus, I doubt the election will be decided tomorrow night. You wait…2000 all over again!

Conservative Physicist on November 3, 2008 at 4:43 PM

My prediction (as if it matters, but maybe it’s interesting):
Obama/Biden: 242
McCain/Palin: 296

I put Florida, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, SC, and NC in McCain’s column.
I put Missouri, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa in Obama’s.
I’d like to see Missouri go to McCain. I’d like to see part of Maine’s EV go to McCain; let’s throw in NH, too.
I made these picks on Oct. 30, and haven’t changed them.

Cindy of TX on November 3, 2008 at 4:58 PM

this whole thing is actually a test of the american people.

have we slipped or are we strong?

obama should be embarrassed, calling himself a good american, but then again, sociopaths have no conscience.

if he wins, the nanny state comes with vengeance.

jimmer on November 3, 2008 at 5:09 PM

McCain – 269
Barry – 269,

until the 51st through 57th states kick in at 2 each for a Barry win at 283-269.

SpudOne on November 3, 2008 at 5:13 PM

Long time lurker, first time poster and voter. I’m not going to delve into the specifics, but I think McCain can manage a victory in the battleground states, and come out ahead in the EC.

YoungAmerican on November 3, 2008 at 5:57 PM

No offense, AllahP, but you’re full of shi+t

You posted this too early: Rasmussen and others have released info this afternoon which show Florida and several other states for McCain, with undecideds breaking for McCain 4 – 1

Janos Hunyadi on November 3, 2008 at 5:58 PM

Here’s a link to my prediction of what the electoral map will look like:

Ready?

McCain/Palin: 382 Obama/Biden: 156

McCain not only wins VA, NC, OH, FL and CO, I’m also saying he will pull the upsets in CA, NJ, MI, and PA.

And now internal polling numbers show he’s competitive in IA and Minn. as well.

manofaiki on November 3, 2008 at 5:58 PM

Where are you getting this internal polling information?
I hope it wasn’t from the Quinn and Rose talk show. I love quin and listen to him every day but he is the Art Bell of right wing talk radio.

joest73 on November 3, 2008 at 6:06 PM

Hi from Australia everyone where I’ve been following this election very closely and am feeling pretty optimistic for Mc/Palin. The reason I do so is not because of the public polls, which are stupid, but because of the stories that have filtered through the blogs from phone bankers, volunteers and other conservatives. All of them are telling a different story than what the press is.

Here is Oz we’re stuck with buyer’s remorse over Idiot Kevin who, like Obama, is an empty suit of promises but no clue how to deliver them, plus he’s a blabbermouth and bignoter whom no diplomat will ever talk to again. If our conservatives could get their act together we would walk all over the left next time round, but once again, elections don’t win themselves, you need a leader who inspires their voters to get out and do the work.

Your hard work and never give up attitude is exactly what your party needs right now and the future. DON’T GIVE UP!

Personally, I think McCain will win significantly, and in areas nobody thought he would. I work for a development organisation and believe me, being a conservative inside an agency like that, you put your head down, bite your tongue and have your revenge on voting day.

Go McCain/Palin 2008! Go Palin 2012! (I think McCain will give her the candidacy in 2012 ssssshhhhhh)

Ozwitch on November 3, 2008 at 7:26 PM

Thanks, AllahP, for all your hard work and your sense of humor, albeit stressed by all the monkeys throwin’ shite atcha.
You guys really help a red dot in an ocean of Cali-blue cope this cycle.

silverfox on November 3, 2008 at 7:52 PM

Obama 353
McCain 185

Semi-conservative in giving McCain Missouri, Georgia, and Indiana but I think Obama will narrowly win North Carolina.

Typhonsentra on November 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM

Let’s try to “keep it real here” ok?

Obama has 321 votes in the bag right now and that’s WITHOUT
OH or MO. It would take the mother of all combacks for McPalin to pull this out. And Barrack could take AZ and really rub it in their faces. Do the math people,it only takes 270 to win so go ahead,you can have Ohio,it won’t matter in the end.

You know the old saying,”your either part of the solution or your part of the problem?” well it’s time to sweep out
what’s left of the Republican/Neocons Party and end this national nightmare once and for all. As Barrack has said”we’ve tried it Bush’s way,and it hasn’t worked”

It’s time for a change,change is coming and you can either embrace it with Obama or start packing and head north or south towards the border. McPailn is going to lose and lose big and there is nothing Hannity,Rush,Savage,Bortz,Beck and all the other Neo-Cons can do about it. The American people are SICK AND TIRED of this divided country,our good name around the world has been dragged through the mud by the Bush Crime Family and President Obama will restore our country’s honor and restore our good name around the world

OBAMA/BIDEN 08

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Boudica on November 3, 2008 at 12:11 PM

Thnks for sharing and people like you will help keep our country great. Go McCain/Palin.

Gracelynn on November 3, 2008 at 8:16 PM

Obviously McCain is the lesser of the two evils, but I still can’t believe the Media and the Republican Establishment forced these two candidates on us. That these are the choices on election day. Listen to me carefully. When you keep voting the same people back into office time and time and time again, and you expect different results. Normally that’s referred to as being insane.

apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM

First time poster, reader since May or so. :D

For the first time in my adult life (heh, couldn’t resist), I give a shyte about politics. Oh, I’ve voted for President and Governor since I’ve been able to in ’88 but never really go “into” it like this time. Hotair is my favorite political blog, but if I could, I’d like to give a shoutout to the three blogs that got me in touch with my “red side”:

sixmeatbuffet.com
moonbattery.com
urbangrounds.com

The horrible, horrible candidate that is Barry (how in the holy hell is he even here with his background?!?) and the greatness that is Palin hooked me. So much more I could type, but I’ll just get right to my prediction, complete with a pretty pic. ;)

http://tinyurl.com/6l27xv

Mac in a tight race, 277 to 261.

MCCAIN/PALIN – because, if nothing else, the alternative is suicide.

RedNewEnglander on November 3, 2008 at 8:24 PM

DUH!!!

A few clicks too many on Idaho. :P

Let’s try that again!

http://tinyurl.com/rednewengland

Mac in a tight race, 281 to 257.

That’s my final answer. ;)

RedNewEnglander on November 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM

The horrible, horrible candidate that is Barry (how in the holy hell is he even here with his background?!?) and the greatness that is Palin hooked me. So much more I could type, but I’ll just get right to my prediction, complete with a pretty pic. ;)

http://tinyurl.com/6l27xv

Mac in a tight race, 277 to 261.

MCCAIN/PALIN – because, if nothing else, the alternative is suicide.

RedNewEnglander on November 3, 2008 at 8:24 PM

The outright racism and bigotry here is downright sickining. If the only solution to a Obama victory is suicide RedNewEnglander,then by all means,PROCEED WITH DUE HASTE!!
This country has had enough of that crap

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM

I don’t believe Obama has anything in the bag right now. Everything is a toss-up and waiting for the voters. Turn out is everything and they are depending ighly on the youth vote.

I don’t believe Obama will win my state, Florida. I also have a weird feeling about CA. But I am not ready to make predictions yet.

bdestini on November 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 8:15 PM

Your attempt at astroturfing is too late.

fossten on November 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

CNN still in the tank Obama completely discounting that state polls by Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, and Mason-Dixon show the race tightening. They still act like he has a double-digit lead and that McCain’s task to ‘overcome Obama’s lead’ is almost impossible. Let’s remember that no votes have been officially counted yet and no EV have been awarded yet.

technopeasant on November 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM

I predict I’m going to be poorer.

Eh, comrade AP?

TwinkietheKid on November 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM

Your attempt at astroturfing is too late.

fossten on November 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM

The only people that it’s too late for is McShame and Caribou Barbie. Less than 24hrs left to send them and the GOP back to hell where they belong

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM

Tuesday: Drama, but no clear winner.
Wednesday: More drama.
Thursday: Drama and threats of riots.
Friday: McCain/Palin announced as winners.
Friday & beyond: Moonbat head explosions reported worldwide. Actual riots.

BTW: First post to HotAir. Love the site. Keep up the great work. You’ve kept me hopeful for many months.
Thank you very much.

Grafted_In, SoCal

Grafted_In on November 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM

CNN in the tank for Obama LOLOL. I guess you don’t tune into Fox News,or is it Faux News,or maybe Fixed News or maybe even GOPTV. Well whatever or whoever the heck they are make no mistake about it,they are the propaganda wing of the republican party. Any network that has to say over and over again that they are”Fair and Balanced” either
(1) they don’t believe it for a second and have to keep reminding themselves or:
(2) the people that watch that crap are so stupid they fall for it hook line and sinker.
This is same network that didn’t even WANT McCain to be on the
ticket along with dozens of right wing hacks on radio and TV.

For months they’ve spewed the GOP talking points and help spread the lies,smears and fears of McCain/Pailn. They have zero credibility as a “news” channel and the American people aren’t buying it anymore

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM

Can anyone say Reagan vs Carter 1980? I remember all the polls saying Al “I am not a scientist” Gore and John “I am Lurch” Kerry both winning in landslides. How did all three of those elections go again, I forgot.

Texas Dude on November 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM

I think DcMike2K overdosed on HOPE-Nosis today.

YoungAmerican on November 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM

Let’s make it a landslide victory for McCain / Palin – WE CAN DO IT!

In the 2006 election many conservatives were upset that the Republican party had let them down and didn’t vote.

This time we are scared s!@#less at what Obama will do to this country and Palin is definitely the unifying force that can pull us all in to rally around this ticket!

For those of you who need it, here is some inspirational material, GET PUMPED UP & VOTE! AND GET EVERYONE ELSE YOU CAN AND HAVE THEM VOTE MCCAIN / PALIN!

lanesmerge on November 3, 2008 at 9:35 PM

Grafted_In, SoCal,

I hope you are well outside of LA. The riots the race warriors will toss when Obama loses will make the Rodney King riots look tame.

Nahanni on November 3, 2008 at 9:36 PM

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM

Ohh, are you mad that your terrorist loving, racist, communist messiah isn’t gonna win?

Boo-hoo. 8(

VolMagic on November 3, 2008 at 9:53 PM

Prediction: I sit back, sipping refreshing beverage and munching buttery popcorn, as wingnut nation devours itself in the aftermath of Barrack HUSSEIN Obama becoming the country’s next president.

*salutes*

NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 9:56 PM

I’m feeling good about McCain/Palin for a number of reasons:

(1) Early voting is surprisingly close (yet all the media has talked about is Obamaniacs clogging the polls)

(2) Republicans don’t respond well to polls — I certaily haven’t granted interviews to the myriad of pollsters that have phoned me over the past couple of months.

(3) The “cool factor” — nobody trying to be cool in a crowd of hipsters is going to admit he’s voting Republican.

But the number one reason that this could be a biggie for McCain is

(4) A blast from the past — “The Silent Majority.” These are taxpayers that will be voting against Obama (rather than enthusiastically pro-McCain). Popular media has not allowed stories about the simmering revolt against the perceived radicalism of Obama to gain traction. But it is a reality.

Stinger on November 3, 2008 at 9:56 PM

I have been praying all day that God will pull us back from the brink of disaster. God help us all if 0bama wins.

stm58 on November 3, 2008 at 10:05 PM

“Obviously McCain is the lesser of the two evils, but I still can’t believe the Media and the Republican Establishment forced these two candidates on us. That these are the choices on election day. Listen to me carefully. When you keep voting the same people back into office time and time and time again, and you expect different results. Normally that’s referred to as being insane.

apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM”

Amen. Even if the Republicans win the White House, us Conservatives still lose. Just because you’re a Republican doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a Conservative. Colin Powell showed us that last week.

Rev. Manning said it best here, though I don’t like a lot of the name calling:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUuaYXO0ze0

stm58 on November 3, 2008 at 10:10 PM

DcMike2K: For months they’ve spewed the GOP talking points and help spread the lies,smears and fears of McCain/Pailn. They have zero credibility as a “news” channel and the American people aren’t buying it anymore

Actually, I think Fox News is doing pretty well. How’s MSNBC getting along?

ddrintn on November 3, 2008 at 10:12 PM

I predict that when McCain wins, I will have to go through at least ten 8 round magazines in my .45 just to protect my relatives home. Well, considering the pent up rage in the moonbat left that are voting for Obama, I’d guess I’m gonna go through ten magazines irrespective. Even in celebration, the crackpots burn their cities down.

Think the French riots a year ago.

csdeven on November 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM

For months they’ve spewed the GOP talking points and help spread the lies,smears and fears of McCain/Pailn. They have zero credibility as a “news” channel and the American people aren’t buying it anymore

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 9:28 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

An independent group studied ALL the major media outlets and FOX coverage of the candidates was 40% negative for Obama, 40% negative for McCain. They use a stop watch when interviewing each side to make sure they give equal time.

Calling the color blue, BLUE, doesn’t make the claim less credible. FOX calling itself fair and balanced is the truth and they should say it.

The person you are thinking of is Obama. He has to claim he is for pro-growth, but he clearly is not.

csdeven on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 PM

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