Predictions

posted at 10:15 am on November 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

Now or never. Electoral votes and popular vote percentages — leave ‘em in the comments for gloating/mockery purposes tomorrow night. If you want to refine your EV metric rather than just blindly guess, the CNN calculator is at your service.

You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220, with The One pulling 51 percent nationwide to McCain’s 47. I gave McCain Ohio partly because he and Palin have spent so much time there but mainly because I don’t have the stomach to sketch out a truly gruesome landslide, my reputation for Eeyore-ism notwithstanding. I gave Obama Florida because (a) he’s owned the airwaves there for months, and never more so than very recently; (b) McCain’s advantage among Hispanics in the state is negligible, reflecting Obama’s big lead among that demographic nationally plus the fact that there are now more Hispanic Dems in Florida than Republicans; (c) The One’s ground game has always been superior to McCain’s and he’s made Florida, naturally enough, a special target; and (d) if, as I expect, he wins the popular vote, that has to translate into some big state victories. So Florida it is.

If you disagree and are looking for a McCain victory scenario, your task is simple: Find a way to flip no fewer than 50 blue EVs below into Maverick’s column. Even Pennsylvania and Florida won’t do it; he needs Virginia too or else one of the western states, the likeliest of which would be Nevada. And of course he has to hold Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are now within a point.

You’re welcome to predict the Senate races if you like. I don’t have the stomach for that, either.


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Not that I condone voter fraud in anyway, but since we know it’s gonna happen, I’m fervently praying that Hillary calls her buddy from Philadelphia, Ed Rendell, and persuades him to swing SE to McCain instead of Obama. Ed’s a Hillary ally and runs the corruptocrats in that part of the state. He could really curry favor in anticipation of a 2012 bid. Never underestimate the machinations of the Clintons. Is it overly optomistic to infer that Rendell’s recent warnings that PA is in danger is a way for him to cover his bases — if PA goes red, he can say that he tried to warn Obama but he was ignored. If it goes blue he can say, aren’t you glad I gave you the heads up?

patriette on November 3, 2008 at 11:03 AM

BTW, mAsshole, how much is the Comrade paying you per post?

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:03 AM

hippie_chucker on November 3, 2008 at 11:01 AM
not calling it for him, just showing the polling

YRM on November 3, 2008 at 11:03 AM

Good people. The world is changing, has changed. The next president will not be John McCain. After 43 consecutive white male men as US president an African American will now have a chance to lead this country. Barack Obama is a good man and will do just fine. This is a fact. To beleive otherwise is to be in denial. Don’t let the world pass you by.

robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

I get McCain 313 to 206… Mac gets Pa., NH, and Minn.

Media will wake up Wed. with worst hangover evah. Detroit, LA, Chicago, St. Louis, and Atlanta wake to riot damage. Obama doesn’t give up and takes election results to court.

This is going to be one helluva week…

David Rasbold on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

I have to wonder if Rove is using a bit of reverse psychology and faking his Eeyore status in an effort to panic real Eeyores into action.

haikusrock on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

You would be surprised, I have been volunteering talking to Veterans from across the country. Most of us are more conservative, but we realize that throwing out words like socialism is not an economic policy. We realize that talking is strength. We care about the future.

Even with the few veterans that have disagreed with me we have had some respectful, interesting, and complex conversations about our differences.

Veterans for Obama ‘08 (O-338 McC-200)

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 10:52 AM

I will not go as far as to say ten but I suspect there really are not that many.

Dawnsblood on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

Just got registered. I have been reading the posts for a couple of weeks. A special shout-out to ManlyRash for the enthusiasm and positive attitude. Keep up the good work.

ICBM on November 3, 2008 at 11:05 AM

Speculation is great fun, and my leg is tingling with excitement…

What is important is that my gun safe overfloweth, and I’m stopping by Gander Mountain on the way home tonight for more .223, 30-30 & 3″ shells…and I shall thank God that my daughters will be with me tomorrow night…and pray that I don’t need to use any of that substantial ammo cache.

hbinva on November 3, 2008 at 11:05 AM

Mccain 454 Obama 84

You heard it here first.

Osama wins RI,Il,OR,WI,DC,MD,VT,MA,CT,DE

SaintOlaf on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

Once again, as occurred in 2006 with the Mid-Term Election predictions. The vast majority of Hot Air commenters are living in a fantasy world. People…these are supposed to be predictions for what you THINK will happen, not what you HOPE will happen!

#1 – Presidential Race – I’m voting for McCain, but I think the math just doesn’t add up for him. Let’s just “shoot the messenger” with AllahPundit, as so many want to do here. Everything would have to break his way, and I just don’t see it. I think McCain may take NH, despite what the polls are saying, but that’s not pushing him over the top.

#2 – Senate – Dems go up to 58, if not 60 to become Filibuster-Proof.

#3 – House – 15-20 Seat Dem pick-up, but the silver lining is that Murtha goes down.

asc85 on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

LOL. Slightly liberal but shilling for the return of the USSR. Right …

I think we can stipulate that anyone supporting Obama this election can hardly be called “slightly liberal.”
wccawa on November 3, 2008 at 11:01 AM

I will stop after this comment in respect to you guys and your ideology… but… do you seriously think that the 51-52% of Americans are all crypto-commies? At least don’t behave like a cartoon of your side, it will help you regain power in the long run.

I mean, I am ok with anything that makes you feel better, ignoring all reason, but there are a lot of us out here that want fairness back. Vote for increased tax cuts to your overlords 9instead of YOU), they may thank you by giving you the crumbs from their tables.

Veterans for Obama ‘08 (O-338 McC-200)

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

G’day From Australia !

One of the largest betting agencies here, Centrebet, is offering 7.25 to 1 for McCain.

I`m so confident that the American people will make the right decision, that I’ve put $800 on McCain. The winning $5800 will pay for a good chunk of my planned US holiday next year !

C’mon USA !!

gozzak on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

gozzak,

When you win your bet, call some one you know in Chicago and have them buy up all the worthless “President Obama” t-shirts—-sew them all together and call it the worlds largest unused surrender flag.

Rovin on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

Media will wake up Wed. with worst hangover evah. Detroit, LA, Chicago, St. Louis, and Atlanta wake to riot damage. Obama doesn’t give up and takes election results to court.

No fair regarding comment about Detroit. They will riot regardless if Obama win, loses or draws.

skatz51 on November 3, 2008 at 11:07 AM

I have to wonder if Rove is using a bit of reverse psychology and faking his Eeyore status in an effort to panic real Eeyores into action.

No comment. Res ipsa loquitur.

Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 11:07 AM

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 10:57 AM

Heh. Great screen name. Never thought Mass folks thought of it as a term of endearment. :-D

Slublog on November 3, 2008 at 11:07 AM

thank you! my point excatly, one of the many reasons i pray to no avail allah will get fired from this blog, but hey according to what he said on ace’s blog to me, we’re just “grouchy readers” – YRM on November 3, 2008 at 10:51 AM

Allah is the Edward Jenner of Hot Air. That is all that needs to be said. Those who can understand it will. Others will not.

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:07 AM

YRM said:

“allah will be devistated that he has to face a lot of happy people ready to go at it w/ him”

It could be a lot simpler than that: he will be devestated when he has to face a dejected KP.

Paging Michelle Malkin.

dtestard on November 3, 2008 at 11:08 AM

Your map, but McCain takes Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

daryl_herbert on November 3, 2008 at 11:09 AM

So many are so sure that Obama has this in the bag…we’ll see tomorrow. I don’t think it’s such a sure thing for him. Maybe I’m deluding myself, but despite the Obama adorers and the fraudulent voting, there are many others like me who are dismayed by Obama’s plans for income redistribution, a civilian defense force as strong as the military, plans to defund weapons systems and the military as a whole, plans to take away our retirement accounts and replace them with government-run pittances. I have been waiting to vote and tomorrow is the day, not today or yesterday.

The pundits and pollsters are not in charge of the outcome, the voters are.

Lynn 11 on November 3, 2008 at 11:09 AM

Navy pilots……

PUMP IT UP

Johnny the right man, with the right stuff.

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 11:09 AM

Congratulations REPUBLICANS!

By giving up, by not working hard for McCain, we will get

OBAMA! And Harry and Nancy.

Get off your asses and get OUT to vote! Don’t let that TROIKA lead America.

WE CAN’T UNDO the DAMAGE they will inflict on America.

originalpechanga on November 3, 2008 at 11:09 AM

I have to wonder if Rove is using a bit of reverse psychology and faking his Eeyore status in an effort to panic real Eeyores into action.

haikusrock on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

That map makes me slightly nauseous. I hate loking at it.

a capella on November 3, 2008 at 11:10 AM

This country is stoned out of its mind from smokin’ Obama’s Hope’n Change weed. Obama will win. When the fog of narcotics clear and we wake up next to the crack whore, we’ll realize that we’re married to the bitch for the next 4 years.

Wyznowski on November 3, 2008 at 11:10 AM

Mccain 286
Obama 252

bestweather on November 3, 2008 at 11:10 AM

asc85 on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

a little history seems to be in order:

in 2004 zogby called the race Kerry 311 Bush 213

unseen on November 3, 2008 at 11:10 AM

My prediction.

November 5 we all get up and go about our business, like we always do. The weekend will still roll around, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year…….life goes on….

Grow Fins on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

My greatest joy of a McPalin victory will be to see Michael Smurfconish get roasted. Why, Allah, do you still have that pseudo still on the blogroll?

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Ugh, Predictions are difficult things, especially when they are about the future.

DJ Rick on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Mccain 454 Obama 84

So be it, Amen.

jimbodeano67 on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

One more prediction: No riots.

Once it’s clear McCain has won, the media will go desperately looking for the race riots.

Despite their best efforts to stir up mass violence, the reporters will be able to find only groups of people standing in the street despondent and angry.

No actual riots will materialize in black neighborhoods.

One young black student journalist will garner national attention when he posts to YouTube video taken with his cell phone of noted race-baiter Al Sharpton attempting to whip up a crowd to riot in New York.

Several college campuses will see waves of vandalism, and the “human interest” story a week later will be that most of the vandals didn’t bother to vote on Election Day, figuring that Obama had it in the bag.

ClintACK on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Masshole…I’ll vote for tax cuts for the rich every day if I could. The rich, which your side seems to think are all Bill Gates’s of the world, are actually just small business owners in reality. So when you “tax the rich” which appeals to your “fairness” gland, you are stifling those who create jobs, and spread the wealth through capitalism.

Read the history of our tax system, on the US Treasury website, and see how tax cuts vs. increased taxation have killed us every single time its been tried.

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/fact-sheets/taxes/ustax.shtml

hippie_chucker on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

I predict if McCain wins the dems will freak and tie it up in the courts for a while. then the civil war II will start.

If Obama wins, even if it looks like voter fraud caused it, McCain will bow out gracefully as not to brings dishonor to himself. By 2012 there will be 25% unemployment as Great Depression ver 2.0 will be well set in.

Russia will systematically start scooping up the EU, and we will do nothing to stop it. All of Latin America will fall to Marxist rule.

Iran will move in to Iraq and the House of Saud will be chased out of Saudi Arabia.

India and Pakistan will go to war which will cause a civil war in India.

An Obama presidency will mean the world will see 2 billion people die from war, Hunger, and disease within the first 1/4 of the century.

On the bright side, people will start using mass transportation and curtail their energy use.

When he says “change” he ain’t whistlin’ Dixie!

TheSitRep on November 3, 2008 at 11:12 AM

Here it is. CanadianGuy

The devil is in the details …..

Methodology
For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state. For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate. There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Rove’s analysis is based on the poll average from October 15 – October 30. This totally ignores how much the race has tightened within the last week.

Rove, you magnificent bastard. Keep making them think they have already won!

fogw on November 3, 2008 at 11:12 AM

McCain 282 48.8%
Obama 256 49.1%

Pennsylvania is McCain’s Keystone State.

Ennuipundit on November 3, 2008 at 11:12 AM

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

Two things.
First, you may want to consider that one of the principle tenets of the communist manifesto is to essentially infiltrate the free public education system. This has occurred, if you need evidence you only need to look towards our favorite commie, William Ayers. What is he a professor of? Oh yeah, thats right, EDUCATION.

Second…You may want to consider that you have a very poorly chosen username, as it too closely reflects a monicker that could be applied to you when you irritate people.

Marine_Bio on November 3, 2008 at 11:13 AM

Being from Nevada I hate to see my state as blue…and it’s embarrassing that someone here keeps voting for Harry Reid! I am praying that Nevada will come through as red. Obama will be a disaster for all of us regardless of what state you live in.

OT: Thank you all for your comments regarding this years election, you have given me encouragment that all is not lost!

antiquechick on November 3, 2008 at 11:13 AM

(Sound of Slap, slap, slap.)Take that you Eeyores, BUCK UP! Make some flippin phone calls/e-mails and GOTV. Head games are only that. NEVER NEVER EVER underestimate the power of highly organized, very, very p*ssed off P.U.M.A.s. They will make a tremendous difference. Also, there is going to be some Maaaaajoooor gut-checking going on when people step into the booth.
Our Aussie bretheren understand that America will not let Sen. Shamwow sell his snake oil to our Divinely-created most sacred nation.
OT: Biden just said that his wife has more sense than Michelle…ie she turned his proposals down 5 times before accepting…LOL

Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 11:13 AM

As I posted on another thread I am calling it for McCain/Palin. This year the polls are so skewed towards Obama/Biden for a number of reasons but once people get alone in the booth without the outside “PC” influnences more will place their trust in MaCain then will Obama. This could prove wrong but this is just my sense of how it will break..as far as PV vs EV Obama wins the PV 52% to 48% but Mcain wins the EV about 300 to 238 or so

Kidd on November 3, 2008 at 11:13 AM

Good people. The world is changing, has changed. The next president will not be John McCain. After 43 consecutive white male men as US president an African American will now have a chance to lead this country. Barack Obama is a good man and will do just fine. This is a fact. To beleive otherwise is to be in denial. Don’t let the world pass you by. – robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

I’m sorry, robert, but Barack Obama is not a good man. He is a lying Chicago thug. Unfortunately, you have drunk so deeply of the Messiah Kool-Aid that you can’t remove the deaf/blind cloak that the mainstream media has placed around your head. No problem. They will remove it for you on the night of November 4 when your “messiah” is defeated resoundingly. Perhaps then you will come to your senses, but seeing as how you live in Manhattan, I doubt it.

But there is still time to do the right thing and, quite possibly, save your political soul.

Vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin. You can do it, robert. There is still some good deep down inside of you.

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:13 AM

Want a franchise for a new business?

either orr’s exploded brains cleanup service. Ready for operation 5 Nov 2008. All you need are rubber gloves and a strong stomach.

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:14 AM

I’m not predicting a damned thing.

But I can tell you one thing: we will indeed get “change” under Obama. The atmosphere smells of the 60s…

The 1860s.

Good Lord, have mercy on us all.

newton on November 3, 2008 at 11:14 AM

My prediction.

November 5 we all get up and go about our business, like we always do. The weekend will still roll around, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year…….life goes on….

Grow Fins on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

And I’ll be staying home during all those holidays. Otherwise all the photos will be of me kicking the sh!t out of all my Libtard family members. On second thought…….

FiveWays on November 3, 2008 at 11:14 AM

All you need are rubber gloves and a strong stomach.

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:14 AM

Nah. Do it the Republican way….with a shop-vac.

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 11:15 AM

Obama 349 (52%); McCain 189 (46%); Other 0 (2%)

paul006 on November 3, 2008 at 11:15 AM

284-254 Obama – my pessimistic guess.

281-257 McCain – my optimistic guess.

Spirit of 1776 on November 3, 2008 at 11:15 AM

I mean, I am ok with anything that makes you feel better, ignoring all reason, but there are a lot of us out here that want fairness back. Vote for increased tax cuts to your overlords 9instead of YOU), they may thank you by giving you the crumbs from their tables.

Veterans for Obama ‘08 (O-338 McC-200)

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

Y’know, this is kind of a dead giveaway. I was willing to listen till you came up with this. Have you not been noticing the downward trend in the definition of ‘rich” over the last few weeks? What the heck does”fairness” mean?

a capella on November 3, 2008 at 11:16 AM

either orr’s exploded brains cleanup service. Ready for operation 5 Nov 2008. All you need are rubber gloves and a strong stomach. – either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:14 AM

Don’t forget the wet/dry shop vac.

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:16 AM

It will be very very close, but Obama’ll clinch it eventually. We can all site and wait for the next election, when he’ll proabably only win one or two states against Bobby Jindal, or Pawlenty

ricardoz on November 3, 2008 at 11:16 AM

OK Limerick. You’ve got the first franchise. Now let’s go get RICH!!!!!

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 AM

In the Senate, Democrats pick up 7; in the House, a net of 26.

paul006 on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 AM

Good people. The world is changing, has changed. The next president will not be John McCain. After 43 consecutive white male men as US president an African American will now have a chance to lead this country. Barack Obama is a good man and will do just fine. This is a fact. To beleive otherwise is to be in denial. Don’t let the world pass you by. – robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

Stick around robert. I’ll be looking for you when your piece of sh!t messiah takes his first dump as POTUS. I’ll be looking for an idiotic ass to kick, and yours will do nicely.

FiveWays on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 AM

barack obama is a communist
ayers is a communist (see his visit to venezuela for proof)
obama’s father was a communist – see his writings for proof
Obama’s uncle was a communist – see his writings
franklin davis – obamas mentor in hawaii was a communist – see his writings for proof
wealth redistribution is comminist
nationalizing idustries is communist
a cicvilian defense force to counteract the military is communist
barack is a communist

bestweather on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 AM

Ugh, Allah, you are the ultimate community organizer of Eeyore commentators! Fix it!

goldeagle11 on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 AM

Masshole,

How long do you think it will be before O has to start going back on all of his promises? I really believe he has set himself up to be a total disaster. He has promised liberals free everything at the same time he has lied about his intentions when it comes to things moderates and conservatives hold dear (gun rights and such). O is a true believer unlike Clinton who was a poll watcher and would shift with the winds. Thats why Clinton remained popular, his ability to be pragmatic and do what was right. O is a hard core leftist and will try to change America and I do believe he is going to be a disaster as a president.

Howcome on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 AM

My prediction. November 5 we all get up and go about our business, like we always do. The weekend will still roll around, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year…….life goes on…. – Grow Fins on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Indeed it does, except that it will be a little more miserable than usual in the Obama household. Michelle Mybelle will need some major plastic surgery to remove the scowl from her face.

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:18 AM

North Carolina will deliver for McCain. You can feel it here.

Semper Paratus

DrStock on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

I think McCain will win fairly comfortable. He should be flirting with 300 EVs overall by flipping Florida, Pennsylvania, Virgina, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado. He will also take one EV from Maine.

My prediction is McCain 294 and Obama 244 in EVs

The senate will end up with 56 Democrat seats

The House will go another 10 to 15 seats to the Democrats and Murtha will lose.

I feel in the end that America will just not be comfortable enough with the flimsy media scrutiny of Obama to elect him. But they will continue to move toward the Democrats in Congress because the Republicans are not standing on conservative ideals.

Hawthorne on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

Methinks someone is caught up in the “hype” ..i might ask, Allah, where, perchance did those 18 million Hillary voters go, exactly ? into thin air ? Look at your favorite polls…and how many dems they sample compared to republicans…and ask yourself…do these percentages match ANY election thats ever happened in this country ? even in 06 when the conservatives were as demoralized as hell ?

I think when all is said and done, the electoral map will look an awful lot like 04..with a couple blue states going red… to expect Obama to beat mccain in states where he couldn’t beat Hil is a little optimistic, even for the resident Obama cheerleader of Hot Air…this is based mostly on common sense…very simply: Obama adds nothing to the democratic column demographically……blacks and college kids were already going to vote for the dem, regardles of who it was … McCain, on the other hand as a proven , documented centrist, will get votes that GWB would have NEVER gotten in a million years…Dem votes, independent votes…I like in NYC, not exactly a hotbed of conservatism…and I’m telling you, MANY dems are voting mccain. Your boy’s not qualified, and all the MSM booty smooching on earth won’t change that…my one fear was turnout, and Palin has obliterated that concern..the base is fired up…and that means trouble for the manchurian candidate, IMHO…

johngalt on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

I mean, I am ok with anything that makes you feel better, ignoring all reason, but there are a lot of us out here that want fairness back. Vote for increased tax cuts to your overlords 9instead of YOU), they may thank you by giving you the crumbs from their tables.

Veterans for Obama ‘08 (O-338 McC-200)

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

Just curious: Are you also for the millions of veterans that will be generated when Obama, Commander in Briefs repeatedly f*(6′s up foreign policy?

When your only explanation for confiscating wealth and raising taxes is the abstract concept of “fairness,” it is proof you have no argument to stand on.

Btw. I’m voting for Beatty, and McCain, and writing in Morocco Mole for Barney Frank.

The US does not need Deval 2.0, now with more thug cronies and traitors.

BKennedy on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

Keep in mind that Obama has already deployed over 30,000 lawyers nationwide to intimidate poll workers. Also remember how in 1996 Obama got his democratic challengers removed from the ballot and ran unopposed to a victory in the Illinois state senate.

If John McCain should appear to have won on Nov. 5th, the Obama legal wolves are poised to be unleashed en masse on red states, employing a scorched earth policy designed to steal, by any means possible, the presidency for Obama.

Puddleglum on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

FL -> Red
VA -> Red
PA -> Red
NH -> Red
NV -> Red
IA -> Red
NV -> Red
CO -> Red

DarkCurrent on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

270 McCain, 268 Obama. No highly analytical logic involved, I am just a sadistic Conservative.

percysunshine on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

My prediction.

November 5 we all get up and go about our business, like we always do. The weekend will still roll around, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year…….life goes on….

Grow Fins on November 3, 2008 at 11:11 AM

Exactly life will go on. I’m sure the reason so many people are early voting is because they want to get this election over with already. They are tired of hearing about. Tomorrow people will vote and have their say and let’s move on from there and get things done.

terryannonline on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

It will be very very close, but Obama’ll clinch it eventually. We can all site and wait for the next election, when he’ll proabably only win one or two states against Bobby Jindal, or Pawlenty – ricardoz on November 3, 2008 at 11:16 AM

Obama won’t clinch it because you, your family and your friends will be voting for McCain. Make it happen.

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:20 AM

The IBD poll from yesterday:

Obama: 46.7
McCain: 44.6
Not Sure: 8.7

At this point, I question the “Not Sure” percentage. Allowing one percentage point for the third party candidates, I think the other 7 percent will swing to McCain. He will win with 51 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.

McCain-Palin ’08!

conservative_in_texas on November 3, 2008 at 11:20 AM

ManlyRash

Ever the optimist.

Grow Fins on November 3, 2008 at 11:20 AM

robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

You forgot the or else.

tomas on November 3, 2008 at 11:21 AM

do you seriously think that the 51-52% of Americans are all crypto-commies?

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

BHO supporters fall into 3 basic groups:

1) America haters – this includes the commies, marxists, socialists, along with a collection of other ideological misfits and the other people who just hate America and what it stands for

2) White guilters and losers – They look at voting for BHO as their ultimate penitence, and they look for BHO to bring the ultimate punishment to them to alleviate their delusional feelings of guilt. The losers just like weak people and therefore, will vote for BHO.

3) Defeatists and anti-competitive idiots – These people hate competition and want to leave the race and crawl up into the fetal position to have the government tell them what to do and when to do it. These people are just weak and don’t like having to think for themselves.

So, no, not all BHO supporters are commies. Many of them are losers and morons of other types. But they all hate the US and what it has stood for all these years.

progressoverpeace on November 3, 2008 at 11:21 AM

DarkCurrent on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

You must be an ACORN operative. You have NV voting twice ;)

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 11:21 AM

McCain 274, Obama 264. McCain takes PA, FL, NC, and the other red states, including 1 in Maine.

Obama takes VA, C0, NM, IA.

bilups on November 3, 2008 at 11:21 AM

If McCain wins this thing, what a fantastic blow out that will be. Even if it’s only by a slim margin, consider all the things that pushed against him:

1. the entire MSM conglomerate
2. the hundreds of millions in dirty, illegal Obama money
3. the entire Hollyweird community
4. tens of millions of fraudulent votes

A McCain win against all those factors would be profound.

ErinF on November 3, 2008 at 11:21 AM

Good people. The world is changing, has changed. The next president will not be John McCain. After 43 consecutive white male men as US president an African American will now have a chance to lead this country. Barack Obama is a good man and will do just fine. This is a fact. To beleive otherwise is to be in denial. Don’t let the world pass you by. – robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

I’m sorry, robert, but Barack Obama is not a good man. He is a lying Chicago thug. Unfortunately, you have drunk so deeply of the Messiah Kool-Aid that you can’t remove the deaf/blind cloak that the mainstream media has placed around your head. No problem. They will remove it for you on the night of November 4 when your “messiah” is defeated resoundingly. Perhaps then you will come to your senses, but seeing as how you live in Manhattan, I doubt it.

But there is still time to do the right thing and, quite possibly, save your political soul.

Vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin. You can do it, robert. There is still some good deep down inside of you.

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:13 AM

Yeah, I’m gonna go there:

It sounds like this election is all about race to you? That’s your basic argument voting for Obama.

So, to you, morality is based on skin color right? Glad to see racism alive and well in the Obama camp.

I can think of several black politicians that would make for a way better POTUS than Obama because they aren’t nearly as liberal.

Try looking beneath the surface. You’ll vote McCain/Palin and feel better for doing it.

Fozzy Bear on November 3, 2008 at 11:22 AM

This race was over before it started. You have the RNC to thank for this. They ran an incompetent, screw the base candidate who wanted to out democrat the democrats and failed miserably.

The big question is will the RNC learn from their enormous failure and return to conservatism or will they continue to foster one party politics and remain in obscurity.

voiceofreason on November 3, 2008 at 11:22 AM

BKennedy on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 AM

Btw. I’m voting for Beatty, and McCain, and writing in Morocco Mole for Barney Frank.

The US does not need Deval 2.0, now with more thug cronies and traitors.

BKennedy, Frank has a Republican opponent.

fluffy on November 3, 2008 at 11:24 AM

Howcome on November 3, 2008 at 11:17 AM

Don’t forget the messianic component of his campaign, stuff like we have a righteous wind at our back is very telling. Aside from being complete tripe, this sets up the true believers for a very HARD fall. How long will that take? My guess is less than two years for those to discover concrete at the bottom of their expectations.

Marine_Bio on November 3, 2008 at 11:24 AM

With the polls all over the place it’s not even worth trying to predict. I’m hopeful everyone will think long and hard about the future of this country before they pull that lever.

Denverslim on November 3, 2008 at 11:24 AM

Allahpundit -

Huh? Here’s some key points you’ve apparently not considered:

1. BO is relying heavily on the youth vote. So did Kerry.

2. The Florida vote you gave to BO will also be influenced heavily by senior voters…they like McCain. A lot. And they always vote.

3. The Pennsylvania vote is very much up in the air – the DNC has Bill Clinton there today trying to help with the Murtha mess. Voters in Pennsylvania have been derided by both BO and Murtha this election season, and it’s now a question of the chickens coming home to roost.

4. I believe there are still about 11% of voters who are still undecided. That’s unprecedented. Since voting for BO has turned into the politically correct thing to do, it can be argued that those voters are simply reticent about admitting their preference (JM).

I still have the feeling that this is a unique election, being monitored by polls that haven’t been subject to these circumstances. I wouldn’t bet one red cent either way.

cnandrews on November 3, 2008 at 11:24 AM

SaintOlaf on November 3, 2008 at 11:06 AM

Saint, you and I disagree on just about everything, not all but most. But you never fail to generate a smile with your posts. In this case I sincerely hope you are correct :-).

Cheers and carpe carp.

Oldnuke on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM

After 43 consecutive white male men as US president an African American will now have a chance to lead this country.

robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 11:04 AM

Of all the qualities of John McCain and Barack Obama, why would the color of their skin be in the top ten of things you would use to describe them?

John McCain is a senator, navy pilot, war hero, moderate, experienced, compromiser, author of McCain/Feingold, Maverick, honorable and a reliable man of his word. Any one of those ten characteristics is far more important than the fact that he has white skin.

Barack Obama is a senator, former community organizer, radical leftist, inexperienced, doctrinaire, egomaniac, friend-of-my-enemies, corrupt, anti-military and beholden to organizations bent on the destruction of this country. Any one of these ten characteristics is far more important than the fact that he has slightly darker skin than John McCain.

gridlock2 on November 3, 2008 at 11:26 AM

Allah, where, perchance did those 18 million Hillary voters go, exactly ? into thin air ?

Most will vote for Obama, some for McCain.

What about the supporters of Fred, Rudy, Mitt, Mike, and yes even Ron. Until the race started whittling down, they easily were over 50% of the GOP primary support.

Most will vote for McCain, some for Obama.

Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM

TheSitRep on November 3, 2008 at 11:12 AM

That’s some gloomy predictions there, but Obama can’t close the deal. McCain wins handily.

txsurveyor on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM

The wife and I worked hard for W here in SC in 2004, and in this deep red state, grassroots enthusiasm is way down. Tons of excitement in the primaries for Fred and Romney, but establishment was behind Mac. That pessimism aside, I see the following:

1. The youth vote forgets to get out of bed to vote for Obama.
2. Seniors come out of the woodwork for McCain, esp. in FL.
3. Coal issue wins PA and OH for McCain.
4. RNC turnout machine does its magic.
5. Obama goes down 49% to 47%, 275 to 263.
6. Republican Party ends up with serious case of buyer’s remorse by June 09 as the Maverick goes hard left in the spirit of bipartisanship.
7. Conservatives only consolation – a decently conservative SCOTUS appointment and prospects of Palin in 2012 with the Maverick serving only one term.

Advice? Go home. Say your prayers. And spend some quality time with your spouse and children.

And keep the TV off as much as possible.

gl_thecatholic on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM

Yo, Manly, Oink needs you over on the Comment Registration thread. Better pay him a visit.

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM

311 MCCAIN (all bush states + PA, NH)
227 OBAMA (all kerry states – PA, -NH)

51-52% pop MCCAIN
47-48% pop OBAMA (1% other)

***Possible “i wouldnt’ be shocked” surprises:
-MCCAIN : winning ME-2nd district, winning MN, winning NJ, winning ME outright, losing CA by 2-4 points, winning either OR or WA (not both), winning WI or MI (not both), taking 15% of the black vote, 40+% of the hispanic vote
-OBAMA : winning pop vote but losing electoral college, losing MN/WI/MI, winning Illinois by 15 pts or less, winning New York by 10 pts, losing Montana/NorthDakota/Indiana by 20+ pts

***Nearly IMpossible “i would be totally shocked” surprises:-MCCAIN: winning California after strong Prop 8 turnout; coming within 5 pts in CT, NY, RI, or MA; losing florida; losing ohio AND virginia; losing Philly by 50,000 votes or less; winning Pittsbrugh/Allegheney county; ejecting Lindsey Graham from the “Straight talk express” because the bus needs to carry less weight and McCain chooses his portable wine cooler over his south carolina sweetie pie.
-OBAMA: breaking 50% pop vote, losing Illinois, not winning any state west of the mississippi save California, not winning any state south of the Mason-Dixon line (save california), winning D.C. with under 90% of the vote, winning Vermont & Hawaii with under 60% of the vote, losing 20% of the black vote

battleoflepanto1571 on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM

cnandrews, here’s something you’ve apparently not considered:

I’d be more optimistic if I hadn’t just heard Karl Rove on Fox News say that Obama had won the last 251 polls in a row: everything since some time in September (not counting small sample, 1-day snapshots, of which McCain precisely one during this time period).

PUMAs, attack!

Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM

BKennedy, Frank has a Republican opponent.

fluffy on November 3, 2008 at 11:24 AM

Oh. I just thought the ads were because Frank is a total narcissist, moral pervert, and abject loser.

Go figure. Straight Republican ticket, then.

BKennedy on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM

Ohio is solid red this year, even in spite of ACORN’s assistance. Allah got that state right.
.
Map above with these changes:
.
Virginia and Nevada – Come on, really?
Pennsylvania – Don’t insult and threaten your voters, repeatedly.
Florida – Contrary to the assessment above, Cuban Americans are pulling huge for McCain.
.
EV: McCain 286 – Obama 252
PV: Who cares?

J Galt on November 3, 2008 at 11:30 AM

How about Florida, Nevada, Virginia, NH and that one split Electoral vote in Maine? That’s 270 without PA which I hope to still get anyway.

jjjdad on November 3, 2008 at 11:30 AM

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:07 AM

What a poxy thing to say, but I think it’s more to generate than inoculate. Hits, that is.

Oldnuke on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM

No way McCain loses Nevada, AND Florida, AND Virginia, AND Pennsylvania. Some combination of them, perhaps, but not all four.

greggriffith on November 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM

McCain: 276 / 51%
Obama: 262 / 49%

Murtha and Franken both lose.

Olbermann has a stroke on national television.

Chris Matthews realizes the thrill in his leg was just the early stages of Restless Leg Syndrome.

The MSM immediately begins a four year diatribe on racism in America.

Europe….well, who cares what Europe thinks.

FuriousAmerican on November 3, 2008 at 11:36 AM

I agree with the previous poster… that coal gaffe is gonna cost Obama dearly. That is one BIG swath of potential red across the Appalachians.

wccawa on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM

Agreed. I should have fleshed out that answer better. My main logic is that between John “My constituents are inbred racists” Murtha and Obama/Biden’s significant pandering to the anti-coal groups in PA, OH and VA, I think enough Hillary blue-collar Dems will switch columns, even with Obama’s support of the EFCA/Card Check.

And like Ed this morning, I think that Minnesotans love an independent-minded politician, and will come around to Johnny Mac in the privacy of the voting booth.

FWIW, my family’s county here in Illinois is demographically extremely similar to the coal parts of PA, VA and OH, right down to being largely union coal miners and Hillary supporters. Most, if not all of them, will swallow their doubts and pull the lever for McCain. They simply do not trust an elitist Chicago politician. Remember, most of these PUMA coal miners are also gun owners who are deeply suspicious of a man who comes from the most liberal, gun-grabbing city in the country. We may have a November surprise come Wednesday, and find out that pro-union gun owners voted based on their own rights, rather than union directives.

Flyover Country on November 3, 2008 at 11:36 AM

Things I would not want to be on Wednesday:
1. David Axelrod’s bodyguards.
2. David Plouffe’s bodyguards.
3. Anyone in William Ayers’ office.
The people who put $600 million out for the coronation of Despot Barack I aren’t going to be pleased when it doesn’t come to pass.
Historically, in Chicago, when you take the money and don’t deliver the goods, some rather unpleasant gentlemen well-trained in the arts of termination usually get a call.

either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:36 AM

Mccain loses CO. NM. NH. Takes PA. VA. NC. OH. IN. FL. MO. NV.
Mccain 286 Obama 252.

Bald Igle on November 3, 2008 at 11:36 AM

McCain – 273
Obama – 265

McCain picks up Pennsylvania, loses Virgina.

otisframpton on November 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM

Pumas have been messing with pollsters, telling them they support Obama. I am going to laugh when the Obamacons self destruct!

portlandon on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM

Allah is wrong. Manly is right. That’s all you need to know.

Now make it happen.

ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 10:58 AM

You’re awesome.

Esthier on November 3, 2008 at 11:40 AM

I smell a squeaker for McCain/Palin. I predict some of the NE will roll red – PA, NH, maybe another. I think FL will go red, too.

There’s been this pervasive notion that Barry has this all sewed up, to the point that I suspect many folks won’t bother getting to the polls. Don’t discount the lazy and inept. They’re firmly in Barry’s camp and while they’re more than willing to go stand in line for a free concert or meal, and even tolerate a speech or two, they probably won’t be willing to wait an hour or two to vote.

wtaft on November 3, 2008 at 11:42 AM

Polls are a mess. Sampling is a mess. Selection bias is skewing everything. PUMAs are do a headfake with the pollsters. You can’t predict anything with the polls.

It’s all about turnout. VOTE VOTE VOTE. Listen to Manly

Semper Paratus

DrStock on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM

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