Predictions
posted at 10:15 am on November 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Now or never. Electoral votes and popular vote percentages — leave ‘em in the comments for gloating/mockery purposes tomorrow night. If you want to refine your EV metric rather than just blindly guess, the CNN calculator is at your service.
You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220, with The One pulling 51 percent nationwide to McCain’s 47. I gave McCain Ohio partly because he and Palin have spent so much time there but mainly because I don’t have the stomach to sketch out a truly gruesome landslide, my reputation for Eeyore-ism notwithstanding. I gave Obama Florida because (a) he’s owned the airwaves there for months, and never more so than very recently; (b) McCain’s advantage among Hispanics in the state is negligible, reflecting Obama’s big lead among that demographic nationally plus the fact that there are now more Hispanic Dems in Florida than Republicans; (c) The One’s ground game has always been superior to McCain’s and he’s made Florida, naturally enough, a special target; and (d) if, as I expect, he wins the popular vote, that has to translate into some big state victories. So Florida it is.
If you disagree and are looking for a McCain victory scenario, your task is simple: Find a way to flip no fewer than 50 blue EVs below into Maverick’s column. Even Pennsylvania and Florida won’t do it; he needs Virginia too or else one of the western states, the likeliest of which would be Nevada. And of course he has to hold Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are now within a point.
You’re welcome to predict the Senate races if you like. I don’t have the stomach for that, either.
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I’ve got it 269-269. Flip MN, IA, NV, and FL to McCain. Then lets watch the fun begin!
Hammerhead on November 3, 2008 at 10:32 AM
The only way a person of such low stature and personal credentials could ever be elected president is if his political party in conjunction with a leftist media creates him, develops him, protects him and lies about him. Then they must give birth to a scenario of inevitability by demonstrating his desirability through invalid or bogus polls and conjured testimonials. All of this has been done for Obama and he is in fact the “Frankenstein” candidate.
For God’s sake don’t be influenced by the pollsters. Fundamentally, polling is a straightforward endeavor. It simply attempts to draw a small but representative and unbiased sample of some population then generalize the results of some test of that sample to the population as a whole. If the sample fails to adequately represent the total population then the conclusions drawn from the sample will be invalid. Media polls are flawed in numerous ways and frequently are nothing but mathematical garbage, particularly when they attempt to generalize their results to the entire voting population of the United States. They are a lot like the old traveling snake oil salesmen . . . until you actually watch them make their elixir you could believe it will actually cure your rheumatism. Never accept a commercial media poll at face value before you investigate their sampling techniques, interrogators and all of their sampling statistics. At best, polls can only give results that are less than perfect and are always subject to some measurement error. Commercial pollsters are paid for their efforts and have a vested interest in their client’s agendas and objectives, so one should always be skeptical of any published outcome.
With regard to this election . . . screw the polls. Go vote and take your friends and relatives with you.
rplat on November 3, 2008 at 10:32 AM
You mean the anonymous leaked internal polls by an anonymous GOP polling firm which shall not be named?
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:32 AM
I agree, doesn’t matter who wins, there will be lot of riots. Celebratory or violent, TBD….
asnider on November 3, 2008 at 10:32 AM
That’s just crazy talk…
it might just be true, bush lost it by just 5 points in 04 and i’ve heard a lot of people are ready to rebel on the dem control there, i think it will stay blue but you never know in this cycle
YRM on November 3, 2008 at 10:32 AM
Although I was feeling vastly outnumbered when I went to early voting at Miami City Hall (which is located in Miami’s Blue bastion of Coconut Grove) on Saturday, I’ll be surprised if Obama takes the state. The I-4 corridor will tip the balance, and that region is much more traditionally Red.
If Obama does take Florida, it will be due to higher levels of black voter turnout than Dem-leaning Hispanics.
SWLiP on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
How many people think th election won’t be called by January 20?
NeighborhoodCatLady on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Dewey Beats Truman!
I think Ohio, FL, and PA will go for McCain. Bankrupting the coal industry and the Rev. Wright ads will help with that.
Yeah, I agree with this.
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
The good news: FL, NV and VA are going to McCain. The bad: that still gives Zer-obama 273.
…hoping for a PA miracle.
ElectricPhase on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
American Voters will be Very Angry When They Discover They Voted for a Marxist
faraway on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
McCain 285
Obama 253
Norfield on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Welcome to HA and welcome to the US next year :)
abinitioadinfinitum on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Some perspective:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/george/2008/11/predictions-ele.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
http://www.politico.com/arena/archive/65.html
Most republicans give it to Obama, only the most hardcore spinners are giving it to McCain. Sorry.
Allah, I have to commend your fairness in the face of your audience.
Veterans for Obama ‘08
MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Watch Vigo County, IN. It has picked every President since 1920. Luckily for us, Indiana closes at 6 p.m. so we might have a good indicator pretty early.
Mayhem on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
I’ve never heard of this… this is the problem with early voting. It’s election day, not week, month, etc. Absentee for military I understand, etc. But early voting because a candidate knows the crap is gonna hit the fan and wants to screw as many as possible is hideous. Some folks, though, are too stupid to believe the hype and will end up screwing us all.
Fozzy Bear on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
I’m afraid so. I think you are pretty accurate. Obama by a nose. I’ll be happy to eat crow on this one if wrong.
a capella on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
My prediction:
McCain 295, Obama 243
McCain will take PA, OH, IN, WV, VA, KY, NC, SC, TN, GA, FL, AL, MS, LA, AR, MO, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, ID, WY, UT, CO, AZ, NV, AK.
Obama will take ME, MA, NH, VT, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, CT, MI, IL, MN, WI, IA, OR, WA, CA, NM, and HI.
teke184 on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 AM
Definitely a lot of uncertainty. The poles could end up really screwed up.
I’ll go with
53/45 McCain
just to catch things on the outside.
Count to 10 on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
If 2000 is any indicator, it’ll be called, and called… and called!
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
Eeyore or not, I think AP is pretty close considering the polling data that’s coming out.
I personally hope the data is off but I fear it’s not.
TooTall on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
The next big question will be how many lawsuits are filed “IF” Obama doesn’t win….and in which states.
ny59giants on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
You are so wrong in thinking that Florida will go Obama
sut on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
I agree with UNCALHEELS…
McCain 273-268.
To differentiate, the PV will be:
McCain: 49.6%
Obama: 49.3%
sunlookha on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
I predict I won’t sleep a wink tonight and will consume WAY too much alcohol in the next 48 hours.
winewife on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
McCain Palin +5 plus. The first Reaganesque landslide since. . . well. . . Reagan.
McCain serves 4 then Palin 8 with a Republican House in 2010 and a Republican Senate by 2012 with many new Republican women in both houses. Gasoline at less than $2 a gallon and the new Hummer6 unveiled in 2010 that gets about 10 miles to the gallon but produces zero gas emissions of any kind.
Para 1 I’m serious about para 2 I can see happening but I’m not too confident about.
Jason Coleman on November 3, 2008 at 10:34 AM
My prediction: McCain 275 EV.
Sinner on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Come. On.
That same poll had McCain within 1 point in California.
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
The issue of this election comes down to something very simple and important – Does America still maintain the pioneering spirit that formed and drove this nation all these years, or does America want to declare defeat, crawl into a fetal position, and have an overpowering government dictate everything.
I believe that the spirit of America still lives. McCain by 7 in the popular vote. Poll projections of the voting population are just way, way off and conservatives are telling pollsters to piss off.
progressoverpeace on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Quote of the Day – UNDERSTATED QUOTE of the day.
Topsecretk9 on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Seriously, you guys that dump on Allah just becuz he’s not declaring a landslide for Mac need to take it down a notch.
Just skip his blogs if it angers you that much. He’s certainly not an astroturfer for God’s sake. Focus your fire where it belongs, on the MSM.
hippie_chucker on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
I think Maverick picks up NV, MN, FL, PA and VA. What kind of Maverick would he be if he couldn’t swing at least two blue states to the red column?
Flyover Country on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
I agree with the previous poster… that coal gaffe is gonna cost Obama dearly. That is one BIG swath of potential red across the Appalachians.
wccawa on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
I predict Allah will be gone – and not a moment too soon. Thank you, Michelle. (Allah, if you don’t have vision of what should be, there’s no reason to blog – please give up pessimistic blogging, for everyone’s sake. You can find something else that you’re truly good at, perhaps.)
Counting the days to an Allah-less HotAir.
ain’t gonna’ happen,people don’t have the balls to, either way we can dream can’t we? notice all the axelturfers and trolls that he feeds, i truly hope he’s eating crow wed.
YRM on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
You smell like kool-aid…
Fozzy Bear on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
What if…and this is a HUGE “what if”…the backlash to prop 8 and abortion notification measures in CA turn more people to McCain…I can dream, can’t I?… ***sigh*** will be hiding under my bed tomorrow…
ocbrat on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Sorry, I shouldn’t have called it a “poll”.
I mean alleged leaked internal polls from an anonymous polling company which requested it not be named.
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Allah seems close to what’s likely to happen. It is probably an early night with Obama winning VA or FL so that the rest of the evening ends up being a coronation by the TV pundits.
dedalus on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Team Good Guys: 276
Marx and Co: 265
Mac wins PA, OH, NC, NV, FL
O wins CO, VA, NM, MN, IA, NH
Coleman over Franken by 3.
Nat Hound on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
MSNBC will call it for Obama by Noon, the rest of it wont be called for days maybe weeks
Viper1 on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
Yeah, you’re probably right. I’ll rephrase:
How many people think a concession speech won’t be delivered on election night?
forest on November 3, 2008 at 10:36 AM
I believe McCain is going to win and he will take FL, MO, VA, PA, OH, NM, IA, CO, NC and NH. There is a possibility he could win ME, MN, WI and MI.
The hail Mary states are CA, NJ, NV and yes, I will even throw NY in for good scary measure.
As I have said before on HA, there will be a change in people’s minds as they pull the lever, tap the screen, color in the circle or punch the chad. The O.S. moment of can I really vote for this man who has questionable associates, little experience, and squishy judgement? This moment is going to be duplicated nation wide. Along with those suddenly changing their minds at the last minute will be millions upon millions of Democrats that are not for Obama. You can call them PUMAS, Reagan Dems or whatever, but I know without a doubt they are out there and they do not support Obama.
Beyond the economy, environment, and the wars is life. One group of people occasionally discussed but mostly overlooked is Catholics. I am so proud of the Catholic Church and many Catholics across this nation that are standing tall for life. Obama is the most anti-life candidate this nation has ever seen and the Catholic Church has stressed this to their members and I believe Catholics are not going to let any other issue trump Obama’s stance on Infanticide.
When 80-85% of those polled hang up, that tells me something and when PUMAS and other Dems tell us they have been lying to the polls that tells me something. With the media pushing Obama and the pollsters leak the polling people are purposely skewing the polls to push Obama that tells me something big! No, John McCain and Sarah Palin are going to win and it is going to be a shocker!
freeus on November 3, 2008 at 10:37 AM
McCain 281, Obama 257. You heard it here first.
warrenmr on November 3, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Quote of the Day – UNDERSTATED QUOTE of the day.
Topsecretk9 on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
Ugh.
He was right in 2006, you know? And everyone (even me) accused him of negativity. Turned out it was realism.
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Perfect. First open registration, then ask for election predictions… with an outrageous negative lead-in!
It’s a Moby’s wet dream.
original signed on November 3, 2008 at 10:37 AM
I do not believe the American People have been fooled by Obama lies and Allah’s efforts at depressing McCain/Palin voters.
PierreLegrand on November 3, 2008 at 10:37 AM
It’ll be called at 11pm Eastern. If PA goes Red then Barry goes home. If she goes Blue, Barry goes shopping.
Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Mccain Ev 337 to 201
Pop vote McCain 52% to 49% ind 1%
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 10:37 AM
Didn’t Algore concede to Bush before he retracted his concession?
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:38 AM
As I usually suck at math in public, all I’ll say is that I have a feeling that the ghost of Richard Milhouse Nixon will probably be smiling tomorrow night, as his great ’silent majority’ steps up and smacks the dogsnot out of the MSM and the great pretender.
And after Barry loses, the media will ’suddenly’ discover what a sham he really is. By the end of 2009, the indictments will be nipping at his heels.
Wind Rider on November 3, 2008 at 10:38 AM
G’day From Australia !
One of the largest betting agencies here, Centrebet, is offering 7.25 to 1 for McCain.
I`m so confident that the American people will make the right decision, that I’ve put $800 on McCain. The winning $5800 will pay for a good chunk of my planned US holiday next year !
C’mon USA !!
gozzak on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM
UK here. I am confident as well they’ll make the right choice, and have bet too. :) I’ll have lots of money to send to my wife.
MattMacD on November 3, 2008 at 10:38 AM
I’m gonna print that out. LOL. The dream sheet.
For one thing coal states are going to MAC.
johnnyU on November 3, 2008 at 10:38 AM
MSNBC will call it for Obama by Noon, the rest of it wont be called for days maybe weeks
You think it will take them THAT long? I think they’ll call it for Obama by midnight tonight, before voting even starts. Olbermann will give his “Call in the dogs, pee on the fire, it’s over and Obama has won.”
I have no idea how it will go. I hope for McCain, but have zero faith in the intelligence of the American voting public, because you see, they’re idiots.
RWLA on November 3, 2008 at 10:38 AM
Anybody else think Obama hasn’t bothered to have a concession speech drafted?
Maybe they will start work on it when PA goes red. (I can hope).
forest on November 3, 2008 at 10:38 AM
There will be the Bradley effect in play! McCain Wins it!!
Sailor on November 3, 2008 at 10:38 AM
I’ll start plucking the feathers.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 10:39 AM
I am not the one in the cult that thinks this is still winnable. I support my candidate; you worship Your Lady of Alaska.
the kool-aid in our side is for celebration in your side…
MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 10:39 AM
Christpoh – nope, Gore didn’t concede until his formal concession -
which was immediately followed by Chris Matthews weeping openly on air.
I -WISH- AP could find a clip of that performance. I’ve looked, but it’s pre-YouTube. . .
Wind Rider on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
My Prediction: The retardation of this country will continue at an accelerated pace. Obama-slime’s victory would only verify that fact. None of this comes as a surprise to me; just look around our society. With each new generation the nanny-state mentality gets stronger. Between the decades of academic brain-washing and the Oprah-isation of this country….. this was all inevitable.
FiveWays on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
McCain 273
Obama 265
rightonamerica on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Sure, Hot Air needs people who drink the Kool-Aid to spout Happy Talk. What possible use could it have for a pundit with a history of calling elections right in the face of pressure to adjust his numbers in a favourable direction?
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
I’m predicting that Dole and Coleman win, but Smith loses because Oregon has already voted. Thus, there will be 57 Democratic Senators including Lieberman. I fear disaster on the immigration issue.
thuja on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
Allah, I have to commend your fairness in the face of your audience.
Veterans for Obama ‘08
see allah, you’re nothing but an axelturfing and troll feeding pessimistic clown, gotta love clowns like allah, but hey allah i’m just a “grouchy reader” according to you
Come. On.
That same poll had McCain within 1 point in California.
i never said it was right, i’m saying i’ve alway believed NJ was going red sometime in the future cause of trends there in the last couple races, and who knows if this karl guy is right (which i doubt) i’ll have my jaw open myself with veryone
YRM on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
If Obama wins, it spells the end of freedom and democracy worldwide for generations to come. Such a shame. My grandchildren, if they survive genocide, will never taste freedom.
stonemeister on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
His concession speechwill consist of exhortations: “Please, everyone, remain calm. Do not riot. I repeat, do not riot.”
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
If you watched Morning Joe today you would have seen they have already called it. It looked like a day-after-the-election program.
CanadianGuy on November 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
perhaps on election day, condition by habit, Obama votes “PRESENT”!! OOPS!! MCCAIN WINS by 1
tcraft on November 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
My god man! In three years plus I believe you are the only person other then me to mention Nixon.
How soon
wethey forget! ;)Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
McCain wins
McCain-277,Obama-261
McCain picks PA,NV,NH & Jim J Bullock for the win.
portlandon on November 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
I think there is a tremendous amount of voter fraud going on, and it will have an impact. The system simply isn’t geared up to stop it.
a capella on November 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
I’m just talking about his courtesy phone call to Bush. (Besides, the concession has no legal weight. It’s decided by the electoral college).
Remember George Bush said, “You’re calling to retract your confession [sic].”
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
But he won’t. Your grandchildren will be fine. Now get out the vote for McCain. This is no time for Eeyores.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 10:42 AM
If he loses, we’re all blaming you. :)
Seriously, McCain 50 to 47 in Popular vote, 291-247 McCain in EV. McCain wins FL, PA, OH, VA, NC, MO, and even MN.
Plus Stuart Smalley loses and those racist rednecks in PA finally kick Jack Murtha out.
VanPalin on November 3, 2008 at 10:42 AM
Crikey!
You fn rock, Mate!
TheSitRep on November 3, 2008 at 10:42 AM
MCCain wins Penn., Fl. and Minn. Wins popular by 4%. What prize do I win if I get this correct?
dragonash on November 3, 2008 at 10:42 AM
OK. Here goes.
McCain/Palin – AL, AK, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME (1), MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WY
Obama/Biden- CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, ME (3), MI, MD, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI
Add it all up and it comes up to McCain/Palin – 270 EV winning over Obama/Biden with 268 EV. The margin of victory will be a single congressional district in Maine. Of course, we won’t know for sure because Ohio is not going to finish counting until November 18.
There is an outside chance that McCain takes PA or Obama takes VA, in which case it will all be over by 9:00 EST, one way or the other.
In the popular vote, Obama/Biden will win by 2-3%, but who gives a damn about the popular vote?
gridlock2 on November 3, 2008 at 10:42 AM
Ok, where’s Manly? Need some positive reassurance.
Get out the damn vote people! Freedoms, Constitution, judges, military, taxes, security, and our children’s futures are all at stake here.
ErinF on November 3, 2008 at 10:42 AM
McCain 275
Obama 263
JustTruth101 on November 3, 2008 at 10:42 AM
I think there is a tremendous amount of voter fraud going on, and it will have an impact. The system simply isn’t geared up to stop it. – a capella on November 3, 2008 at 10:41 AM
The impact will be minimal and offset by the largest Republican voter turnout in history.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Wow, YRM, that’s totally uncalled for. The worst part of it isn’t that your hyperbole is ridiculous and offensive, it’s that it’s blatantly false.
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Predictions?
I can’t bear to watch it all unfold.
Buckle up for two rough years. If we’re lucky, a 2010 mid-term election will stop the bleeding. If that doesn’t happy, kiss the America you know good-bye.
Every great civilization must erode at some point. I was just hoping it might happen later.
JudetheFossil on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
I am sure the polls are simply wrong. The “hot, new, and cool guy” issue is definitely inflating “the One’s” numbers. I think that inflation can account for as much at 10%. Most folks don’t want even an confrontation on the phone with a pollster and will be “undecided” rather than verbally side with an “unpopular” party.
I think McCain/Palin 300 the big Zer-Obama gets 238.
But I am stocking whiskey just in case I am wrong.
drewmesq on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Well, if you read my login name, you know that I am outnumbered over here. What is amazing, is when you leave King, Pierce or Thurston Counties, all you see is conservatism. The inner City is chocked full of CHUD’s. (Cannibalistic Humanoid Urban Democrats)
IBP/TIPP still shows a 2 point race, with independents leaning McCain.
Kevin in Washington State on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
johnnyU on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
273 McCain 50%
265 Senator Government 48%
I think M/P take NV, FL, NC, OH, PA. But lose VA.
p0s3r on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
Who is allah?
does he own this board?
he’s an obama supporter obviously.
im4mccain on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
McCain 50% of vote and 281 EV
jonkk on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 10:40 AM
manlyrash! i’ve always been an admirer of yours, thank god some sense is here finally
YRM on November 3, 2008 at 10:43 AM
McCain gets a bare majority of the popular vote, and a 307-231 EV victory.
zerosheep on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
McCain also takes FL, VA, CO and NV for the win. On election night the two states to watch are Fl. and Ohio. McCain MUST have both and I think he’s got them. But these two states will tell the tale.
Maxx on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Turnout has been huge in GA early voting, and they are projecting 85% by the end (POTUS turnout is usually 50%). This means pollster projections based on historical data are bogus. It also means that polling adjustments for new turnout expectations are basic guesses. The election of 2004 had higher than expected turnout and the left was shocked that the extra voters were mostly conservative. So let’s wait and see.
Mark30339 on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
To try and stay positive:
Obama: 268
McCain: 270
Key states :
Obama wins: New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania.
McCain wins: Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and the congressional district in Maine (which prevents the ugly 268-268 scenario).
Basically, the Bush 2004 states, but Obama wins Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico. Obama wins popular vote 50-48. Get 4 years of bitching about the Electoral College.
Abby Adams on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
At this point, I am praying for a Mac victory, just to see Olbermann’s head explode. The thought of Mac bipartisanning his way through a Dem Senate isn’t exactly a terrifically comforting thought-but the alternative is unthinkable.
hippie_chucker on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Manly Rash is on the job, Erin. This election belongs to McCain and Palin.
Now let’s bring this shit HOME.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
obama 49.5% mccain 49%
Mccain 271 – Obama 267
eumarian on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
I don’t think saying it’s possible for McCain to win is kool-aid talk. Everyone says Obama is in the lead, but there are several reasons to suspect it’s not as solid as the media are making it out to be (sampling error, Bradley effect, non-response from polled voters etc).
Plus, Obama is a socialist for crying out loud. I think quite a few voters who’ve been saying “Obama” may get cold feet when they hit the booth.
forest on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
Insofar as Pop. Vote + EC:
Obama 50.7% 264
Mccain 49.3% 274
(FL, PA, NV, 1 NH flip from Allah Map)
BKennedy on November 3, 2008 at 10:44 AM
That’s rich, coming from one of the Messiah’s cult following.
fogw on November 3, 2008 at 10:45 AM
While I respect your obvious service to this country MH, it must be lonely at a Vets for Obama meeting when ten folks show up.
Rovin on November 3, 2008 at 10:45 AM
Well, I certainly hope you’re right, but I see nothing in the trends this race to indicate you are. Yet.
In other words, the national trends are breaking the other way unless McCain is going to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
Obama, thanks for giving us the coal bankruptcy skyrocketing energy prices rabbit. Let’s hope got big enough legs.
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:45 AM
That adds up to 102%…must be counting the ACORN voters :)
VanPalin on November 3, 2008 at 10:45 AM
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