Predictions

posted at 10:15 am on November 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

Now or never. Electoral votes and popular vote percentages — leave ‘em in the comments for gloating/mockery purposes tomorrow night. If you want to refine your EV metric rather than just blindly guess, the CNN calculator is at your service.

You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220, with The One pulling 51 percent nationwide to McCain’s 47. I gave McCain Ohio partly because he and Palin have spent so much time there but mainly because I don’t have the stomach to sketch out a truly gruesome landslide, my reputation for Eeyore-ism notwithstanding. I gave Obama Florida because (a) he’s owned the airwaves there for months, and never more so than very recently; (b) McCain’s advantage among Hispanics in the state is negligible, reflecting Obama’s big lead among that demographic nationally plus the fact that there are now more Hispanic Dems in Florida than Republicans; (c) The One’s ground game has always been superior to McCain’s and he’s made Florida, naturally enough, a special target; and (d) if, as I expect, he wins the popular vote, that has to translate into some big state victories. So Florida it is.

If you disagree and are looking for a McCain victory scenario, your task is simple: Find a way to flip no fewer than 50 blue EVs below into Maverick’s column. Even Pennsylvania and Florida won’t do it; he needs Virginia too or else one of the western states, the likeliest of which would be Nevada. And of course he has to hold Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are now within a point.

You’re welcome to predict the Senate races if you like. I don’t have the stomach for that, either.


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People calling Allahpundit a traitor in 5…4…3….

I’m sure it doesn’t happen often, but for once, I hope you’re right Allahpundit!

mycowardice on November 3, 2008 at 10:18 AM

NH will surprise you!

I hope……

Easydoesit on November 3, 2008 at 10:18 AM

McCain/Palin———by a wisker!

Rovin on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

Obama 273 McCain 265

CanadianGuy on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

Violence. One way or the other. There will be violence.

Oh, and my wife will probably get laid off the next day from Circuit City corporate. It’s gonna be a helluva week.

pistolero on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

President Elect John McCain.

KCB on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

Thanks Allah, you are the biggest eeyore on the internet.

prosetech on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

It doesn’t look good, but you never really do know until the election is over.

worlok on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

You would have to give Obama Florida – because he can’t win it on his own.

nitzsche on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

My prediction is that if your prediction is right, stocks are going to tank…

SPCOlympics on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

Add to the McCain column Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, and Nevada.
New Hampshire and/or Iowa could go red.
How in the hell will Florida go to Obama?! He will not have the Cuban, Venezuelan, and Jewish vote.

jencab on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

I like your map, Allah, even though I’d put Ohio blue.

It’s gonna be ugly. I’s gonna get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it. (obscure?)

Even rasmussen has obama up another point, to 52 percent to 46 percent.

albo on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

McCain 52%
Obama 47%

txsurveyor on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

My prediction is that if your prediction is right, stocks are going to tank…

SPCOlympics on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM

ditto

pistolero on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

McCain 290, Obama 248

El_Terrible on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

If that is your map Allah, you are predicting Obama will break a lot of HUGE trends. Like the fact that a candidate hasn’t lost Ohio and still become President since JFK, or the fact that Missouri has picked 25 of the last 26 Presidents.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

scary…just scary

mpax on November 3, 2008 at 10:21 AM

Obama 134, McCain 134, Undecided 270

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 10:21 AM

I rather this map

abinitioadinfinitum on November 3, 2008 at 10:21 AM

Ah… Allah. The festering sore that just won’t heal on HA.

Sugar Land on November 3, 2008 at 10:21 AM

I predict a McCain victory. Independents who are undecided will pull the lever for McCain. Electoral votes will be McCain 270 Obama 268. How? Simple….Min 10 Fl 27 Va 13 = 50.

Shai on November 3, 2008 at 10:22 AM

The one BIG problem with your map is that it’s based on your wishful thinking. That won’t carry any weight with me and a lot of other folks tomorrow when we vote.

AubieJon on November 3, 2008 at 10:22 AM

Well, not counting small sample 1-day snapshots (of which McCain won exactly one), Obama may have won 251 polls in a row according to Karl Rove, but the only poll that counts is tomorrow.

McCain’s gonna win!

Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:22 AM

Because I’m completely stupid, never get these things right, barely understand how they work, and am close to HYSTERIA right now; I’ll say:

McCain takes: FL, VA, PA & OH and that puts him over the top!

God help me if I just jinxed him!

Dale in Atlanta on November 3, 2008 at 10:22 AM

I don’t see Obama taking Florida or Virginia. I think it depends on PA or if McCain can flip Minnesota and retain Florida and Virginia… he’s got it by 2 EV’s.

Luckedout on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

BK Chooses to flip:

Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and 1 NH for the win.

27 + 21 + 5 + 1 = 54.

OFraud: 318 – 54 = 264.

McMaverick: 220 + 54 = 274.

Coleman, Sunnunu prevail.

BKennedy on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

I don’t feel confident that we will have an answer tomorrow night. I feel another 2000 election coming on.

vcferlita on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

I thinks Allah is in for a November surprise.

Griz on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

I think Obama with 310 EVs or so. Sadly. I think Mac needs too much good fortune to win tomorrow. If the media won’t cover the coal comments; they won’t get it.

lorien1973 on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

Surely stocks have Obama priced in, right?

I mean if anyone follows polls or the stat crunching EV sites they have to know that Obama will most likely win. I think stocks do what stocks do on Wednesday – regardless of who wins.

Hoodlumman on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

If he can pull PA- McCain by 273-265 (taking NC/IN/OH and losing CO and VA). Come on Western PA!

SMB102589 on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

I think McCain takes FL, VA, PA, NM and thus becomes our next POTUS. Our ground game is supposedly 64% better than 2004 and I think that undecideds will break to McCain. Obama’s coal comments help with PA.

It would be nice to take MN. I’m from IL, but I was listening to MN radio Saturday and there was optimism.

kerrhome on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

Add to the McCain column Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, and Nevada

He’s not winning my state, PA. The southeast suburbs he’s courting right now have been going blue for a while, and aren’t going to change now.

albo on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

But, if I could, I might buy some Mac stock on intrade…just to hedge my bets :P

lorien1973 on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

I just can’t make a prediction…although I see Florida going (barely) to John McCain.

If McCain is declared the winner, no doubt the Dems will file a court order to examine electronic voting machines.

JetBoy on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

Worst case scenario…

EV – Obama 116, McCain 422

Probable:

EV – Obama 43, McCain 495

Good Day McCain

EV – Obama 28, McCain 510

That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.

CC – BHO: “my Muslim faith”

CapedConservative on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

You actually think Ohio will go Mac but Virginia and Florida go for Obama when Virginia and Florida are more conservative than Ohio?

Kim Priestap on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

And my prediction?

McCain will lose “gracefully” and “respectfully” like his campaign has said it would since they won the primaries.

Hoodlumman on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

My prediction is that I will have an upset stomach all today and tomorrow. Obama loses and Matthews and Olbermann have nervous breakdowns on air… one can hope right?

Reaganite84 on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

to counter balance the MSM….

McCain 65% Obama 35%

EV: McCain 400 EV’s!!!!

inevitable

jp on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

If that is your map Allah, you are predicting Obama will break a lot of HUGE trends. Like the fact that a candidate hasn’t lost Ohio and still become President since JFK, or the fact that Missouri has picked 25 of the last 26 Presidents.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

Correlation is not causation.

I think it’ll be 291 to 247, edge Obama. Essentially Allah’s map, but with Florida going red.

Trent1289 on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

McCain takes Pennsylvania, N.Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, wins the race, Franken and Murtha lose, and the Democrat Party starts splintering from Nov. 5 onward thanks to the McCain Democrats.

KingGold on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

McCain 49, Obama 48

EV: McCain 281 taking VA, FL, PA in addition to those AP has already colored red.

Thanks but no thanks to your pessimism.

Fozzy Bear on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM

AP, I see coal comments killing BHO in VA & PA…in a big way. It’s a discussion that’s already raising lots of eyebrows here in SW VA, even among non-policitical-junkies…

hbinva on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

People calling Allahpundit a traitor in 5…4…3….

Not a traitor….just a realist who denys the laws of nature.

Rovin on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

McCain 271, Obama 267 – results not settled until Nov 15

BuckNutty on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

General election: Obama will narrowly win the popular vote and Mccain will win the electoral college. Two party share: Obama 50.8, McCain 49.2

Electoral college: McCain 273, Obama 265.

Senate races: the Democrats will pick up Oregon, Virginia, Alaska (good riddance), New Mexico, and Colorado.

House: Democrats pick up 26 seats.

Gubernatorial races: Republicans win Washington, Vermont, and North Carolina. W00t.

tpc on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

I think Allah’s map is simply in line with the media/polling narrative, which may or may not be true, his map might be the way it breaks, if God has given up in disgust at our once great country, I might add.

Personally, I think no right thinking person will gamble away our country by voting O, when they get into the booth…my prediction is Mac wins, barely. Prediction-Mac gets 289 EV.

hippie_chucker on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

It all depends on how many times Mickey Mouse votes. I place the over/under at 10. Over and Messiah wins. Under and McCain wins.

angryed on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

Obama ahead in popular vote by a hair on election night with nobody calling the race. At least three of these states end up in court: Virginia, Nevada, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Missouri. We’ll find out who wins some time toward the end of the month.

forest on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

Add to the McCain column Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, and Nevada.

jencab on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

That’s my scenario

Vashta.Nerada on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

McCain by a whisker and months of law suits!!!

Or Obama by a whisker and months of law suits!!!

I really have no idea how this is going to turn out, I dont believe the polls so all I can guess its going to be a very late night tomorrow night.

HoosierCon on November 3, 2008 at 10:26 AM

The Cuban American population is OVERWHELMINGLY for MCCain. I was just driving down Calle Ocho and through Hialeah and the surrounding areas at there was only one Obama sign to about 500 Mccain signs. You have alot of Southern Dems in the north of Florida that dont like him and Mccain takes Florida.

robbwilder on November 3, 2008 at 10:26 AM

McCain 281
Obama 257

ColHogan on November 3, 2008 at 10:26 AM

EVEN WITH ALL THE VOTER FRAUD MAC WILL WIN.

DELL on November 3, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Flip PA, VA & FL. Job done.

LimeyGeek on November 3, 2008 at 10:26 AM

Obama 273-265 McCain

lodge on November 3, 2008 at 10:26 AM

MCCAIN 280 i heard a radio interview out of new jersey on you tube saying the GOP internals are showing it going red.

i’m new here so i’m still figuring out how post relevant info.

tcraft on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

vcferlita on November 3, 2008 at 10:23 AM

Same here. I believe that possibility is why Obama keeps raising money.

My prediction/fear?

Mac loses Virginia, Ohio and Nevada, picks up Pennsylvania.

Keep all the other states the way they were in 2004, and that puts us at McCain: 269, Obama: 269. In my gut, the nightmare scenario is a real possibility.

Slublog on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

G’day From Australia !

One of the largest betting agencies here, Centrebet, is offering 7.25 to 1 for McCain.

I`m so confident that the American people will make the right decision, that I’ve put $800 on McCain. The winning $5800 will pay for a good chunk of my planned US holiday next year !

C’mon USA !!

gozzak on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

Hmm. I’m not sure Obama will win Florida or Virginia. We will see tomorrow. Although, we will know early in the evening what way the election will go. If Obama wins Virginia early on, I’m turning off the television and calling it a night.

terryannonline on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

OBAMA 338 – McCAIN 200

Obama takes OH, VA, FL, NV, NM, CO, NH and PA of course

Veterans for Obama ’08

MassHole on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

247-247

Ohio and Pennsylvania will be swamped by weeks of claims of vote fraud, intimidation, suppression, lawsuits to stop their electoral votes from being counted, etc. It will be decided in the House of Reps, with McCain being selected by that house because in the interim such damaging info will come out about Obama to make his election utterly untenable. Riots, plagues, famine, and civil war. The Osmonds will reunite.

HerrMorgenholz on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

mcain 281 barack 257

Mac carries NC FL Ohio PA and Virginia

All the rest of the swing states

kangjie on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

If you are right and Obama wins then just like Peter on the Family guy, I am going to start my own Country. I am open to suggestions and all non far left loons are welcome.

ctdad on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

I hope Obama blows out McCain by like 5 points in the popular vote and McCain squeaks out 10,000 vote wins in places like Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconcin, New Hampshire, and everywhere else to get him the EC blowout…

Obama 51.5% McCain 46.5%

Obama 170ish McCain 368ish

ninjapirate on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

Ron Paul 535, Obama 3, McCain 0

Ars Moriendi on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

Who on earth is Obama still campaigning in the northeast today? One would think that’s the last place he needs to be.

BigD on November 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM

I still maintain my position that a large percentage of people are lying to the pollsters.

goldeagle11 on November 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM

Okay, I’ll take a whack at it. I say even if PA stays blue (which I’m still not confident that it will) that VA and FL stay red and Mac flips MN.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM

He will not have the Cuban…

He won’t?

Tom_Shipley on November 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM

You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220

you would, hey allah remember me? the guy you dismissed as a “grouchy reader” on ace’s blog hehe i’m here now

I like your map, Allah, even though I’d put Ohio blue

giving food to the axelturfers allah, see why i find you annoying?

How in the hell will Florida go to Obama?! He will not have the Cuban, Venezuelan, and Jewish vote.

allah doesn’t live here, i do and guess what FL is staying red

Thanks Allah, you are the biggest eeyore on the internet.
the most annoying blogger on earth next to the dailykos kooks

People calling Allahpundit a traitor in 5…4…3….
not a traitor, an axelturfing feeding annoying clown who dimisses his readers as “grouchy readers” just because we make fun of how he can’t take a ____ w/o looking at a poll that tells him to do it

President Elect John McCain.

amen, here’s my prediction, Mac will win 299-239 (wins all bush states of 04 except IA & NM, picks up PA & NH), i’ll get to lead a charge making fun of allah wed., well enjoy watching MSM and pollsters’ heads explode, and we saved the country from a socialist.

ps: i’ll give allah crap too if obaam wins, cause the only way bama’s winning is 273-265 in my opinion or no more than 280ish, he ain’t getting a landlside unless we’ve become socialist

YRM on November 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM

hippie_chucker on November 3, 2008 at 10:25 AM

Think I got close to the same. Gave Mac FL, MN, VA, PA and NV and gave Obama IN, MT, NV and ND. Mac can aford to lose VA if he can get IN and another Obama state, same with MN if he can assure VA, PA, and FL.

Theres gonna be alot of flipping around, hopefully we can get PA and MN and things will get weird.

Rbastid on November 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM

1. Florida – McCain
2. North Carolina – McCain
3. Virginia – Obama
4. Ohio – McCain
5. Pennsylvania – McCain
6. Indiana – McCain
7. Missouri – McCain
8. Colorado – Obama
9. New Mexico – Obama
10. Nevada – McCain
11. Minnesota – Obama

Winner: McCain 273-268

uncalheels on November 3, 2008 at 10:28 AM

McCain 317

Obama 221

SueM on November 3, 2008 at 10:29 AM

Obama: 273, 49.7%
McCain: 265, 48.2%

Dems pick up 8 Senate seats.

Sackett on November 3, 2008 at 10:29 AM

McCain 309 (51%)
Obama 229 (47%)

Raytonium on November 3, 2008 at 10:29 AM

4 year nightmare of Pelosi/Reid/Obama controlling this country – as Thomas Sowell said “the point of no return”. I’ll be spending the next 4 years finding legal ways to hide my money from the IRS.

gash on November 3, 2008 at 10:29 AM

MCCAIN 280 i heard a radio interview out of new jersey on you tube saying the GOP internals are showing it going red.

That’s just crazy talk…

ninjapirate on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

just out of curiosity, for all the people that voted early.
with more information coming out about Obama, can a voter petition to change their vote?

tcraft on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

The thing with FL is that while there have been more Dems voting than Reps, Mac had a narrow lead, better than W four years ago. There was a commenter above talking about the Philly suburbs being blue. That on balance is true, but all Mac has to do is prevent a blowout. He’s going to pick up voters in traditionally Democratic areas in PA this year.

What amazes me by some of the defeatism on this board is that every time Hillary was on her back and ready to die, Obama couldn’t kill her. Every time! I have some optimism for my home state tomorrow night. Obama may not get big margins in Northern Minnesota, which means he’ll lose MN.

IR-MN on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

Folks, $600+ million will buy you a presidency. Count on it.

Hoodlumman on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

McCain wins, steps down from office in one month for medical reasons, Palin becomes president, Allah is institutionalized.

fogw on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

I’ll give you my prediction tomorrow night, I have to give it some more indepth thought and crunch the numbers again…

….I also have to make a beer run today.

Old Hippie Vet on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

No prediction here. Mainly, because I can’t get a “feeling” for it.

All my life, I’ve “known” who was going to win, even when I wanted it another way. Clinton in 92 was almost a surprise, but I’d decided that was how it would be shortly before.

My gut is telling me Mav, thanks to Sarahcuda and Joe the Plumber, and I have to believe that the bias and slobbering by the media has turned off a lot of folks who might otherwise vote Dem. However, I’m scared to death that it is only wishful thinking.

Either way, I’m locked, loaded, stocked, and getting a full tank of gas tonight.

JamesLee on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

“In my gut, the nightmare scenario is a real possibility.”

That would just mean a House vote and Obama Presidency. It wouldn’t be the first time an election was decided in the House.

Mind you, any scenario where Obama becomes President sounds nightmarish.

Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

Ejectia forever!

Joints on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

Ron Paul 535, Obama 3, McCain 0

Ars Moriendi on November 3, 2008 at 10:27 AM

HAHA, perfect.

Fozzy Bear on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

McCain is going to need a miracle.

SoulGlo on November 3, 2008 at 10:30 AM

Obama will not take VA and FL. Bush won VA in ’04 by 8%. There is no way in hell it has changed that much in 4 years.

It all hinges on PA. The coal comments and raising electric rates (by having to retool coal plants) will spell the end for Obama in PA. Outside of Philly, the entire rest of the state will go to McCain.

McCain pulls it out with 281 Ev’s. The popular vote is irrelevant.

Bison91 on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM

Obama: 276
McCain: 262

Sue on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM

I predict Allah will be gone – and not a moment too soon. Thank you, Michelle. (Allah, if you don’t have vision of what should be, there’s no reason to blog – please give up pessimistic blogging, for everyone’s sake. You can find something else that you’re truly good at, perhaps.)

Counting the days to an Allah-less HotAir.

dtestard on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM

How many people think the election won’t be called on election night?

forest on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM

It’s gonna be ugly. I’s gonna get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it. (obscure?)

albo on November 3, 2008 at 10:20 AM

Fred Thompson in “The Hunt for Red October”

NeighborhoodCatLady on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM

I have McCain 305, Obama 233.

wccawa on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM

That would just mean a House vote and Obama Presidency. It wouldn’t be the first time an election was decided in the House.

That would come after countless lawsuits and recounts, I’m sure.

Slublog on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM

Ignore the polls.

flipflop on November 3, 2008 at 10:32 AM

Paging ManlyRash.

Cleanup on aisle five.

Terrie on November 3, 2008 at 10:32 AM

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