Predictions

posted at 10:15 am on November 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

Now or never. Electoral votes and popular vote percentages — leave ‘em in the comments for gloating/mockery purposes tomorrow night. If you want to refine your EV metric rather than just blindly guess, the CNN calculator is at your service.

You’ll find my map below. Obama 318, Maverick 220, with The One pulling 51 percent nationwide to McCain’s 47. I gave McCain Ohio partly because he and Palin have spent so much time there but mainly because I don’t have the stomach to sketch out a truly gruesome landslide, my reputation for Eeyore-ism notwithstanding. I gave Obama Florida because (a) he’s owned the airwaves there for months, and never more so than very recently; (b) McCain’s advantage among Hispanics in the state is negligible, reflecting Obama’s big lead among that demographic nationally plus the fact that there are now more Hispanic Dems in Florida than Republicans; (c) The One’s ground game has always been superior to McCain’s and he’s made Florida, naturally enough, a special target; and (d) if, as I expect, he wins the popular vote, that has to translate into some big state victories. So Florida it is.

If you disagree and are looking for a McCain victory scenario, your task is simple: Find a way to flip no fewer than 50 blue EVs below into Maverick’s column. Even Pennsylvania and Florida won’t do it; he needs Virginia too or else one of the western states, the likeliest of which would be Nevada. And of course he has to hold Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina — all of which are now within a point.

You’re welcome to predict the Senate races if you like. I don’t have the stomach for that, either.


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Here is my prediction (hopeful and idealist) for my home state senate race:

Dole 51%
Hagan 49%

Since 40% percent of NC’s registered voters (2.5 million of them) have already voted, and the majority of the total registered voters are Democrats, I feel this is the best case scenario for Dole.

turpentine on November 3, 2008 at 10:55 PM

MY GOD The hate mongers are out in force tonight,here’s something that will make you feel alot worse. Just a couple of predictions from conservative pundits that see the light,you should recoginize some of these names right?

Karl Rove
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200

Matthew Dowd, former Bush strategist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans

George Will, conservative columnist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans

Ed Rollins, Republican strategist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 249 Democrats 186 Republicans

Charles Mahtesian, Politico national politics editor
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 311 McCain 227
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 256 Democrats 179 Republicans

Morton Kondracke, Fox News host
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 379 McCain 159
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 269 Democrats 166 Republicans

Alex Castellanos, Republican media consultant
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans

Obama wins Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Florida; McCain wins Ohio and Missouri…. Coleman wins in Minnesota; Chambliss loses Georgia; Landrieu loses in Louisiana.

Tom Doherty, New York Republican consultant
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 331 McCain 207
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans

and what a fitting end to Joe Lieberman than this:

Obama wins North Dakota, has more paid staff in state than voters… Joe Lieberman thrown to pack of wild dogs behind Cannon Senate Office Building. Washington left without a Bush or Dole in office for the first time since, well, a really long time ago

if these people can see the light,why can’t all of you??
accept it.

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 11:00 PM

DcMike2K on November 3, 2008 at 11:00 PM

Because they have careers riding on this. They go with the flow because if one is wrong they are all equally wrong and no one has an advantage in two years.

We conservatives are going on our gut that there are not that enough stupid people in America that will vote to give the election to Obama. It’s a faith thing.

You on the other hand seem to have a penchant for forcing people to your view. Why are you so scared of us? I suspect you have serious doubts about Obama and it’s easier for you to hate McCain rather than support a terrorist sympathizer.

I for one will trust a man who was tortured by communists and never a man who was taught by communists.

csdeven on November 3, 2008 at 11:59 PM

Too all the commenters posting McCain will win this thing – DEAR GOD I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT!

kutabeach on November 4, 2008 at 12:24 AM

Amen. Even if the Republicans win the White House, us Conservatives still lose. Just because you’re a Republican doesn’t necessarily mean you’re a Conservative. Colin Powell showed us that last week.

stm58 on November 3, 2008 at 10:10 PM

Wow. Somebody who speaks the truth! I think we’re going to get along just fine, stm58. Keep up the good work.

apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 1:14 AM

McCain wins EC 299-239

McCain wins pop. vote 51-47

Mr. Wednesday Night on November 4, 2008 at 1:59 AM

I’m sorry if this is a repeat but, what happened to RedPill who was predicting a huckabee win? I’d like to see his/her/its EV map.

Burghardt on November 4, 2008 at 5:41 AM

Time for MSM to start eating crow. Lets gitter done

johnnyU on November 4, 2008 at 7:00 AM

It’s all a guess at this point, isn’t it?

I just bet a friend $100 that the Obama victory margin would be under 100 EV.

I’m thinking it’s probably something like 311 for Obama vs. 220 for Mac. With O taking NV, CO, NM, OH, PA, and VA. And Mac keeping FL, NC, and IN.

I put the chances of a McCain victory somewhere around 35 to 40%, which means it’s within the ballpark of completely doable, and even if he loses it won’t be a giant landslide blowout in the electoral college.

Of course, I really, really hope that Mac pulls this out, I’m just worried.

DelD on November 4, 2008 at 10:52 AM

Comment pages: 1 4 5 6