My Predictions
posted at 11:20 am on November 3, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Earlier, Allahpundit gave his predictions for the national race. I’m a bit more optimistic, especially given the movement over the last few days, but I’m more or less a born optimist anyway. I think John McCain will win a squeaker over Barack Obama, 273-265, by holding Florida, Nevada, and adding Pennsylvania as a trade for Virginia:
Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling. As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength. The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points. Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.
I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada. Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states. It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate. I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point. GOTV will make a difference, but so will those undecideds — and as I’ve said before, if that many people still haven’t made up their mind to vote Obama, then I expect most of them to take the safe fall-back position of McCain.
The Senate and the House look like a lock for Democrats, however. I expect to see a 57-43 split in the upper chamber, counting the independent caucusers for the Dems. In the House, Pelosi will marginally increase her majority to 237-198. There are just too many open Republican seats in this election, regardless of the narrowing of the generic Congressional balloting.
Win, lose, or draw, however, I’ll be broadcasting election results live at AM 1280 The Patriot tomorrow from 8-11 pm CT. We’ll have live chat and live video broadcasting during the returns. Be sure to tune in right here at Hot Air, where we will celebrate the finale of the most remarkable presidential election in my lifetime!
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If Ed Rollins hates our chances I feel alot better about pulling this out.
The odds of winning this whole thing tomorrow will hinge on McCains winning margins in Indiana and Kentucky. Beating the spread so to speak.
Indiana needs to be solid
Kentucky needs to be a blowout
If it happens we got a game.
jjshaka on November 3, 2008 at 7:36 PM
I have a question about polling. When they determine how to weigh the Democrats, Republicans, and Independents from which to poll, do they base it on registrations for the primaries?
If so, wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect that Operation Chaos may have a significant part of why the numbers in Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania are skewed to an Obama victory, or at least a tighter race in Indiana than it would otherwise be?
rmel80 on November 3, 2008 at 7:36 PM
The theme that George Bush is a lousy President also ignores reality. He absolutely did the right thing in Iraq. He had the courage to stay and change players. Maybe not so much in A’stan but that was necessity. Very different situation. The economy doubled during his first seven years if you use Dow. Nobody has even sneezed our way since 9/11. Would have been nice to have had a figurehead at UN with Bolton as the brains. This year economy is flawed but it took Dems 30 years to louse it up so not too bad.
Mac must do the usual candidate duplicity. So rejoice in his victory. And thanks to the Rash.
Caststeel on November 3, 2008 at 7:37 PM
I support McCain/Palin you idiot. If you actually knew what you were talking about then you’d know that I support McCain/Palin because of Sarah Palin. That’s because Sarah Palin appears to be genuinely conservative. She’s a life-long member of the National Rifle Association (the NRA). She hunts and fishes. It appears to be very much of a tradition for her and her family to be involved with hunting and fishing so she certainly is pro Second Amendment. She is very very pro-life. She had as her 5th child, a child with Downs Syndrome, and knew the child was going to have mental development problems before the child was delivered and yet they decided to go forward with the pregnancy. So she certainly is very pro-life. She is clearly a very sincere Evangelical Christian. She is very pro-Israel. And she has taken positions on other issues whether it’s spending, or whether it’s taxes, or whether it’s regulation, that generally are quite conservative, She has also seems to be an honest person in terms of fighting corruption. She did fight against the corrupt officials in Alaska — the Republican officials in Alaska were dirty corrupt crooks and theives, and she fought against them all the way, and risked her political career repeatedly to do so, and so she’s immensley popular in Alaska. She has more than 80% approval ratings in Alaska. And before that the politicians in Alaska were very unpopular because of all the corruption scandals, but she is very popular because she has a very squeeky clean reputation of really taking on these corrupt, slimy, politicians. So all of that looks and sounds very good so far, and I think that’s why the Republican base and Conservative base became very excited and fired up. Obviously, they weren’t happy with John McCain’s candidacy. None of us liked John McCain. But, this decision certainly, uh, was a move in the right direction in the eyes of Conservatives and Republicans. So do me a favour and go away. Anyone who told you to be yourself couldn’t have given you worse advice.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 7:37 PM
No, America is “all about” our literal compliance with the Constitution, If the “free right to vote” subverts our Constitution then the “free right to vote” is in itself a serious problem that must be overcome.
rplat on November 3, 2008 at 7:38 PM
So, for example, legislation that violates the Free Faith and Credit Clause, even if voted on by ballot initiative, say a gay marriage ballot initiative “must be overcome”?
DeathToMediaHacks on November 3, 2008 at 7:41 PM
John McCain wins tomorrow. Beats BigMedia big time. They were his real opponent. Bambi
wasis a shadow. He will look good above his fireplace cover of New Yorker. Biden would make a rug in that cover, mouth open. Senate will be tight but Pelousy is so dumb that 20-30 conservative Dems will buck her now. And Dingy Harry (thanks Rush) can never forgive Liberman. There are conserv. Dems in Senate, too.Go McCain and Palin!
Caststeel on November 3, 2008 at 7:49 PM
Thanks, Ed, for all your diligent analysis and coverage.
You guys really help a red dot in an ocean of Cali-blue cope.
silverfox on November 3, 2008 at 7:50 PM
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 7:37 PM
That is “Life Member”, please. Me too.
Caststeel on November 3, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Caststeel on November 3, 2008 at 7:49 PM
Oops, Should be House.
Caststeel on November 3, 2008 at 7:56 PM
I have McCain winning VA, CO, NH and IA on top of what Ed has. Obviously that would put me way more optimistic than most folks here, but I call it the way I see it. I’m least sure of CO and IA but I think McCain ekes out a victory there.
eyedoc on November 3, 2008 at 7:57 PM
every ‘pollster’ has his own method ( including pulling something out of their ass )
Janos Hunyadi on November 3, 2008 at 7:58 PM
I don’t understand. Sorry.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 7:59 PM
I hope Ed is right. Pennsylvania looks dicey, though. Brit Hume said tonight that Philadelphia and its suburbs constitute 40% of the state vote. If Obambi can take 60% of that (not unlikely, given the 99.9% ‘non-racist’ vote in Philly), then he has to win only 45% of the rest of the state to get to 51%.
I think Virginia is a better bet for McCain, though northern VA (a DC suburb) has gone blue in recent years, but then he’s got to make up the PA loss somewhere else.
I think the only real hope is that the polls are dead wrong, and that there is a large, silent, anti-Obama vote of people who didn’t want to incur the opprobrium of the Pied Piper’s children (and clueless ‘adults’) by announcing that they would vote for the not-Obambi.
It’s a possibility, but just a possibility. It is puzzling that even here in the Peoples’ Republic of Massachusetts, there are awfully few yard signs and bumper stickers, for either candidate. Actually, driving around our town, in which Democrats like the execreble Ed Mahkey run unopposed, I’ve actually counted more McCain than Obambi signs. FWIW.
MrLynn on November 3, 2008 at 8:06 PM
If Obama loses, I’m ready for the riots
William Teach on November 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Colorado is going red. People who were on the Obama hype bandwagon are coming to terms with their lover being a cheat and louse (sp). I am seeing a huge number of McCain signs that went up just last week in many different neighborhoods. I also think the puma’a and moderate dems are going McCain. The stupid polls are based on 40% dem and 33% rep but they don’t take into account that liberal and moderate dems are pissed at being hijacked by the left. It’s gonna be a wipe out -McCain 53 Oscambi 44. GOD, if you still love us, give us a wilderness miracle!!!!!!!!!!!!!
katy on November 3, 2008 at 8:09 PM
McCain = 281
Obama = 257
McCain wins : Fl, Va, Oh, PA, IN, MO, NC
Obama wins : CO, NV, NM, IO, NH
*** I feel the most telling information is the HUGE number of folks that are “NOT” responding to polsters… Obama fans SCREAM that they are for Obama, McCain fans sit back and read, watch, observe and then VOTE! We don’t want to be called redneck racists, so we just WIN IT AT THE POLLS, not “in” the polls! Why should anyone believe these polsters, they had it WRONG in the primaries, WRONG in the last two elections and they are WRONG this time with the HUGE advantage they are giving the Democrates in “weight”! So for my opinion, we DRAG McCain to victory to save our COURTS, our TALK RADIO, prevent a CIVILIAN DEFENSE FORCE, protect our MILITARY FROM HUGE CUTS and we PRESERVE THE BILL OF RIGHTS and CONSTITUTION!
Go VOTE, and may God Bless America, my home sweet home!
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 8:14 PM
BINGO!
Check out Ace of Spades’ “historical” post about the 2004 election and Rush’s post about the 1980 election.
I particularly like this bit from Rush’s post:
The Obama camp has been so vociferous about shouting down opposing viewpoints, even in their own party (remember the PUMAs), that many people are quietly planning on voting for McCain tomorrow.
My husband and I work with and live near highly educated liberals (academics). You would think that we would feel comfortable expressing our views with people who have the capacity to reason and express themselves with words… but we do not. If we are that intimidated by a bunch of Birkenstock-wearing egg-heads, why would you think that anyone except the most politically-active folks would respond honestly to a pollster?
Keep you chin up out there in Massive2shi+s. I’m in California, but it’s Southern California so it really isn’t as bad as it might be. I lived in Boston for a few years during the first Gulf War and hated it. It was worse than here or even Maryland, imho, because layered on top of the liberalism is this outmoded class structure (old money like the Kennedy’s) and still quite a lot of self-imposed segregation. Hang in there!
Y-not on November 3, 2008 at 8:18 PM
Then I take it you are voting for McCain? Excellent!
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:24 PM
I’m with you Ed. This is America and there’s absolutely no way that there are that many kool-aid drinkers out there. The Neocoms and the drive by media are inflating this garbage the same as the polls. They would like everyone to believe that everyone wants BHO,the one,the messiah whatever.
America is not stupid and no amount of propaganda is ever going to change that fact. Tomorrow America’s voice will be heard loud and clear with McCain and Palin as the winning ticket. The koolaid drinkers and the MSM won’t know what hit them
Tomorrow America’s voice will be heard loud and clear. We will not go quietly into the night. We will not forsake our freedom that has been won by the blood of our brothers and sisters since the beginning of our great country.
McCain and Palin in 08 is a sure fire thing. Just get out the vote. God Bless America!
tuscan1 on November 3, 2008 at 8:27 PM
What will shock so many people on the night of November 4 will not be the fact that McCain wins – that is a given. What will amaze everyone will be the margin of his victory.
Keep the faith, Katy. Keep working hard for John McCain. Make it happen and deliver CO!
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:27 PM
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTdjZjU2YWRlODgyNjA4ODE3NTFhODQ3OGZmYjY1Yzg=
This is great opinion, it shows VERY WELL THOUGHT OUT details with fact based decision making…
We “FLIP” PA., which I say we do, and it’s a STUNNER for McCain.
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 8:27 PM
You are doing a yeoman’s job, Mark. Thank you.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Wish me luck tomorrow. As election judge, I’ll be actually handling the new registrations… as I said over at MM, ACORN just give an excuse, scumsuckers!
MNDavenotPC on November 3, 2008 at 8:33 PM
give ME an excuse I meant to say.
MNDavenotPC on November 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Best of luck and thank you for your service.
I was an election judge in my youth (Reagan era), but I don’t think I’d have the patience to do it now, especially here in CA where no ID is required. I’m afraid I would get in a confrontation.
Y-not on November 3, 2008 at 8:35 PM
This isn’t only guardedly optimistic. It’s also delusional. Obama is leading by double digits in all the states Kerry won. That leaves him with 252 electoral votes. He’s also leading in 8 of the states that Bush won (in half of them at over 6%).
ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 8:37 PM
What I never have understood about the Obama campaign is why it hasn’t tried to reach out more to the PUMA’s during the campaign. Are they so proud that they would rather lose an election than trying to build a bridge to answer the PUMA’s concerns? I thought politics was supposed to be the ‘art of the possible’. With the Obama campaign it seems everything is possible if they sanction it but impossible if they don’t.
technopeasant on November 3, 2008 at 8:40 PM
Y-not
Well, I’m not sure about my patience, either. As a USMC combat vet in Vietnam…. those pencil necked geeks don’t want to push me.At the least, picture ID’s are approved in MN, but then so are cable TV bills( sighs)
MNDavenotPC on November 3, 2008 at 8:40 PM
You’re right. Unfortunately we’re having to share THIS room with you Monkey Troll.
Things must be getting tight for you trolls because you’re coming out of the woodwork. You can type til you’re blue in the face but you’re outnumbered here Monkey boy.
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 8:40 PM
No, thank you Manly-Rash-On-Matthews-Thrilled-Leg…
I have been on the outside looking in at HotAir for months now, keeping my thoughts positive, learning, reading, watching those that have core principals, morals, values and pride in our great Country. So for the kind words from a HotAir legend I am humbled.
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 8:40 PM
The PUMAs were nothing but disgruntled big money donors to Hillary and GOP operatives.
ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
Well, word on the street there are over 4m PUMA’s. They all can’t be fat cats.
technopeasant on November 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
OT: I bought an HK91 today, just doing my part to support the unintended consequences of a Marxist possibly getting elected.
The gun dealers report today that there is a lot of nervous activity, lots of buyers.
fossten on November 3, 2008 at 8:45 PM
Word on the street is Sarah Palin did not give birth to Trig. Word on the street is that John McCain had a mild stroke recently. Word on the street is that Obama is actually the son of Malcolm X. Word on the street is that he’s a Muslim who attended a Christian church for 20 years. Word on the street is that he’s a secret Muslim and he’s being anointed by the Illuminati to take over the world. Of course, one would think that if they wanted to insure victory they wouldn’t name the guy Barack Hussein Obama, but I digress.
There’s a lot of word on the street. And it isn’t worth the dirt on it.
ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 8:48 PM
I hate the sea of blue I am seeing other places, I need some help to have some hope, thanks ed
drudged on November 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM
I see a lot of the youth with O shirts and stuff. It seems that the candidate that the youth picks many times is the candidate that loses, think Gore and Kerry and MTV. The grownups are the ones that vote.
drudged on November 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM
What flavor is that koolaid you’re drinking?
platypus on November 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Funny, you seem to spend an awful lot of time listening to it.
Gina on November 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Nice tag, Gina. We should do WWF. :)
platypus on November 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Don’t worry. I’m guessing it tastes a bit better then that fudge on your lips … if you get my drift.
ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 9:04 PM
I say McCain wins both VA and PA, but not likely to pull out CO (trending left), NM (same), and IA (ethanol). PA margin will come from combined impact of the “bitter”/Murtha/bankrupt coal comments and the PUMA vote in rural areas. Also, Philly is not necessarily as reliable for Obama as it was for Kerry, because of the South Philly vote…. The key is to keep the damages there to a minimum, keep DE County and Chester County margins under control too, and have big turnout in the Lancaster County and Western regions…. (I’m in Delaware, not too far from the border.) VA will come through as well. If they barely went for Jim Webb over George Allen in 2006, Obama will not be able to break 50% there.
Prediction: McCain wins electoral college, Obama wins popular vote. Hello media meltdown…. :)
SoKierkegaard on November 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM
I need a good laugh from the far right loonies every once in a blue.
Oh no! I typed “blue”!!
Don’t let your face get all red about that.
ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM
Actually, I don’t. But I have a nagging suspicion that it is a profane/perverted reference.
Reveals a lot about you. 24 hours from now, the pain will begin to subside.
platypus on November 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM
From the laughter that I’ll have at the meltdown you guys will have?
Oh yeah, golly gee, you betcha!
::wink::
ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 9:09 PM
Worst case scenario, Obama wins and the Dem majority is increased (hope that is possible given their 10% approval rating is beyond me but many expect it so…). How do we fight back? How do we resist?
Yakko77 on November 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM
GOTV!!!!! we can do this!!
drudged on November 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Buy guns. And ammo. In large quantities.
Borrow money if you have to.
fossten on November 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
How does McCain lose CO but win PA i say he gets one he gets both
drudged on November 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
I’ll tell you how. Stop having the GOP pander to the stupid vote. Seriously, from the lurking I’ve been doing you guys seem to love Sarah Palin. She’s exactly the reason why McCain started to lose the “undecideds”. I feel bad for the guy, really, people aren’t really voting against him as they are voting against the Republican party and Dubya. People aren’t feeling like rewarding the past 8 years. If he were a true maverick like John McCain claims he is, he would have said to the Rapture Right “thanks, but no thanks” and gone towards the middle. You guys live in a bubble and don’t see that many people in the middle are socially liberal but fiscally conservative. No one is going to take your gun-rights away. It’s really a state issue. Roe v. Wade will not be overturned. Both of those issues are used by the Left and the Right to rally the base. We’ve had a 5-4 conservative majority at the bench. It hasn’t happened yet and it won’t. The moral zeitgeist is moving, the GOP needs to move along with it.
The GOP (if McCain loses and they lose seats big in congress) is going to come at a crossroad. Do you go further Right with Bible Spice as the head or look for a more Paleo/Libertarian minded candidate?
ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Sorry, David Axelrod, but Palin is the reason McCain got a surge. If it weren’t for Palin, I would be staying home. So put that in your pipe and shove your pipe sideways up your candy ass.
fossten on November 3, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Pander to the “stupid vote”?
bluejacket on November 3, 2008 at 9:33 PM
Today Ladies and Gentelmen, we are in the valley, clad in our battlegear, awaken to the day by a force from within, a purpose, a mission, battle lies ahead!
We have been joined this “MORNING IN AMERICA” by PUMA’s, Reagan Democrates, RHINO’s, Conservatives, peoples of all faiths, of all social backgrounds, of ALL races, arm in arm, shoulder to shoulder, clinging to our God, our Guns, our Flag, our Constitution!
We are looking up at a huge mountain, with a fortress of the far left radicals inside awaiting our attack. The Socilialists, protected all the way up the hill by the MSM, and with Pundits blocking our paths, the task is daunting and will require all of the effort a human can muster!
But we are bolstered by our faith, comforted by that still small voice inside… Fortified by the knowledge that from our efforts here today our children and thiers will grow up in a FREE, PROUD, STRONG AMERICA… The America of our Founders, of our Grandfathers and Fathers, of our FALLEN HEROS who gave it all for our RIGHT TO FIGHT TODAY!
Drawing comfort from our friends, family, church and our mission we march onward, “RUSH”ing up the hill, tossing aside all the Pundits, embarrasing the MSM, confronting the radicals and leaving them wondering what hit them…
VICTORY AWAITS for all those willing to lay it all on the line today! Are you ready? Will you fight? Will you vote?
LET’s ROLL!
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 9:42 PM
fossten -
You are in full on panic mode. “Buy guns. And Ammo. In large quantities” all because a man was elected by a majority of the people in a fair democratic process?
So are you planning on inciting some type of violent act all because McCain loses? Otherwise why say this?
Is this the values that the people on this forum have?? No one has told you to be quiet – so the rest of you condone this type of thing? Are you storing up food waiting for “End Days” too?
I bring this up because I am seeing more signs that when Obama wins tomorrow there will be violence from people who simply cannot believe a black man is going to be President. I see über-Red States like AL, ID, MS, TX, etc being hotbeds for riots and angry confrontation. I hope not, but I could see it happening.
Folks, it’s an election. That’s all. Happens every 4 years.
Uncle_Aina on November 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Having ties or even knowing someone who has terrorist ties is enough to deny or revoke security clearance. So someone please tell me WHY would americans vote to put a man in the highest position in the country who cannont get a security clearance.
Hilbilly on November 3, 2008 at 9:46 PM
TO: ManOnLI on November 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
You Sir, are a small minded man to not understand what we Conservatives are fighting for… You talk about Roe v Wade, ok, not really a big one for me… You talk of gun rights, OBAMA has already moved twice in his short time to BAN guns, restrict rights! Tell me Mr SmartGuy, what is the Civilian Defense Force for??? Jack boot thugs comes to mind, as does Fairness Dcotrine and intimidations of Press.
The “re-writing” of The Bill of Rights, Judges that will move FAR FAR left of the center, where you claim to want to go… What a joke if you think the Dem, with Reid, Nancy and Obama will be CENTER…
You are a TROLL, and a LIAR!
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 9:48 PM
You don’t need to worry, Uncle: He whom you love will lose the election, leaving you filled with ennui
Janos Hunyadi on November 3, 2008 at 9:49 PM
I agree with you on one point and that is that more than anything I think people are supporting Obama more out of punishment I think to Dubya and the Republican Party he supposedly represents. Seriously, I know some here go out of their way to defend the guy at times but ask yourself, how else could Obama, a guy with no record, no experience, inconsistent to the point that he makes Kerry seem resolute and a shady past with associations most of us wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole be in the position he’s in now if not for something before to be considered so much worse?
If when Obama wins tomorrow, there will be one person you can thank for it, George W. Bush.
Yakko77 on November 3, 2008 at 9:50 PM
TO: Uncle_Aina on November 3, 2008 at 9:45 PM
Again, this is NOT a normal election moron…
Obama wants to REWRITE the Bill of Rights…
Wants a Citizens Defense Force…
Believes our CONSTITUTION is FLAWED, needs to be changed…
Wants a 25% cut in MILITARY and DEFENSE…
REDUCTION OF NUCLEAR DETERANT, no new development…
Free the TERRORISTS in Cuba…
ALLOW UNION THUGS to FORCE non-secret ballots / reprisals…
THE LIST GOES ON TOO…
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 9:55 PM
Having ties or even knowing someone who has terrorist ties is enough to deny or revoke security clearance. So someone please tell me WHY would americans vote to put a man in the highest position in the country who cannont get a security clearance.Obama is a liar and if americans dont wake up He will be a presidential LIAR Peaple need to yote for the best man for the jod and Obama is not it Too many will vote for him simply because he is a blck man and others will vote for him because he is a democrat Why not vote for for the best man for the job or the lesser of two evils however you may view it and if your not sure stay home
Hilbilly on November 3, 2008 at 10:03 PM
Well put, and amen.
*goes to store*
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 10:09 PM
Hey guys, have you noticed how ManOnLi and NDR never have anything positive to say about America or American values, they never answer questions like wtf is the “Civilian Defense Force”? The trolls live to despise America, the great works we have done for humanity, the sacrifices made to promote FREEDOM around the globe. They never talk of PRIDE, VALUES, FLAG, CONSTITUTION, BILL of RIGHTS, PERSONAL PROPERTY RIGHTS… They just hate, trash talk and have no valid reasons to vote for a man who can not even pass the BASIC security clearence for FBI agents. Trolls and Obama, a combo America can’t wait to get rid of, and tomorrow, WE WIN and they crawl back to the ghettos or liberal collages to suck off the teet of WORKING AMERICANS.
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 10:18 PM
Guys, even your boy Karl Rove is predicting an Obama win. Take swipes at me if you like, but I am just the messenger.
But I liked that “ennui” comment..that was good.
You can be sure I’ll be on here tomorrow to see many of you decompensate.
Sun is setting here on Kauai and I cannot wait for tomorrow to come. Aloha.
Uncle_Aina on November 3, 2008 at 10:22 PM
URGENT:
This from Fred Singer:
MrLynn on November 3, 2008 at 10:45 PM
Ed, from your lips to God’s ears. I pray you are correct.
McCain most definitely has a chance. This race is close, real close. We can’t have anybody standing on the sidelines.
Angry Dumbo on November 3, 2008 at 10:53 PM
Ed,
That is EXACTLY what I am telling my friends and relatives. Wins PA, loses CO, VA, NM, IA.
Anybody know if Nader will pull Obama votes in CO?
Sapwolf on November 3, 2008 at 11:07 PM
Does anybody know if McCain has a chance for that one electoral vote in Maine?
If Mac can’t get PA, but holds VA, loses CO and picks up NH, that one vote in Maine would give the victory to him.
Sapwolf on November 3, 2008 at 11:19 PM
We don’t do “meltdown”, since we don’t have our existences revolving around some lying thuggish wannabe-Messiah hopeychangey empty suit. We leave meltdown to the moonbats. We adjust and eventually prevail.
ddrintn on November 3, 2008 at 11:34 PM
Pretty close to how I see it. A good clue will to see the dif between the polls in early states and the actual vote. Its going to be close. PA for McCain!
DieHippieDie on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 PM
I made all my predictions on my site but I do have
John McCain 275 Electoral Votes 51% popular vote
Barack Obama 263 Electoral Votes 49% popular vote
Dont think McCain will win Minnesota but one can dream yes.
All of my predictions are here. > Ruffled Feathers
RuffledRaven on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 PM
it’s supposed to rain in the west tomorrow, so I’m calling NV for McCain. MT, ID, WY, UT and ND, as well. WA, OR, HI and CA for Obama. CO and NM for Obama. SD, NE, TX, OK, AK, KA, MO, LA, MS and AL for McCain. MN, WI, IA, IL and MI for Obama. FL, GA, SC, TN, NC, KY, OH, IN, WV and PA for McCain. VA, MD, DE, DC, NJ, CT, RI, MA, NY, VT, ME and NH for Obama. final tally would be Obama / Biden 265 and McCain / Palin 273.
chunderroad on November 3, 2008 at 11:41 PM
LOL! I just looked at Ed’s map. I swear I wasn’t copying. I’m a bit cynical and think VA will be fixed, so the country won’t look racist when Obama loses. But we’re not so stupid we’d vote to turn ourselves into France. Even Sarkozy thinks Obama’s a disaster.
chunderroad on November 3, 2008 at 11:44 PM
I say Mac wins narrow but I like Ed am an optimist. It’s be 270-something for McCain at 50% BHO gets the leftovers and 49% with Ralphy getting 1%
Mojave Mark on November 3, 2008 at 11:51 PM
Fair? Yeah, right. Ever heard of ACORN? And yes, Obama plans to take away the right to buy guns. So I’m buying now while there is still freedom left. Sorry you can’t tell the difference between prudence and panic.
That’s just a stupid statement. Typical moonbat, assumes all gun owners want to do is start riots and kill people. Ever heard of rising costs due to increasing government regulation?
Mmm…very good, you move from overgeneralization to straw man. You FAIL.
Funny, I heard the exact opposite from James Carville. And what are you doing, trying to incite a riot?
Then stay home and don’t vote for Obama.
fossten on November 4, 2008 at 12:04 AM
You have no integrity. You owe me an apology.
apacalyps on November 4, 2008 at 1:21 AM
Living in one of these blue states is like living like a troll under the bridge. I hope-no I pray you are right on how this election breaks. Please I want to see the Mainstream Media have a meltdown. Please! Nothing would be more satisfying that having Keith’s Mommy come have to change his diaper and that tingle down C Matthews leg, well you get the drift.
BHRIO on November 4, 2008 at 1:42 AM
hahaha
watch me fail tomorrow.
Uncle_Aina on November 4, 2008 at 4:29 AM
This thread looks worn out but I need to say this.
Barack Hussein Obama is NOT an African-American. He’s an Arab-American at best.
African-American refers only to the descendants of freed slaves. Clarence Thomas is an African-American.
Electing Obambi has no application to past American racial issues, and IMO is nothing more than the latest scam foisted on blacks in America.
Obambi has no common cause with descendants of freed American slaves. If he had any shame, he’d never impersonate one like he has.
platypus on November 4, 2008 at 5:34 AM
Ah yes, when Democracy works and the guy you don’t want to win does win. Time to arm up and revolt.
But if your choice wins, you still arm up to fight off the civil unrest that can’t accept democracy in action.
Can you see the hypocrisy?
Bradky on November 4, 2008 at 6:07 AM
I know a lot of Democrats (I have friends in low places ;)) here in Pennsylvania who say they will either not be voting or voting for Nader. Folks simply have an uneasy feeling about voting for Obama.
I think McCain will take Pennsylvania, its going to be close, but I think he will squeek in.
philly_PA on November 4, 2008 at 8:05 AM
Manly Rash, Hope your steadfast opinion and efforts that have bolstered many of the faithfull in their hour of need will be rewarded. When we win i have a bottle of 20 year old Ky Bourbon with your name on it. God Bless you sir.
doublenaught spy on November 4, 2008 at 9:04 AM
So a Man-on-Lithium wants to lecture on his knowledge of delusions.
Thanks for the unsophisticated repeat of the astroturfed polls.
Kerry lost several states where polls had him leading by comfortable margins.
If you think the poll numbers are proof, we will see the real data soon enough.
Right_of_Attila on November 4, 2008 at 10:26 AM
I think McCain will win Colorado.
The very strong religious right, undercounted as in 2004, will come out in FULL FORCE.
Your map/prediction is very interesting, especially PA.
Let’s see if you are right tomorrow.
stefystef on November 4, 2008 at 12:16 PM
I have been wanting to get a log-in ID for the last month or so. Thanks for making it available again (glad I got in when I did, half-hour later it was closed).
Anyway, I hope your predections are right Ed. I would be thrilled if VA were red, but as long as the socialist empty suit is humiliated and out of the oval office, that will be fine with me.
DuctTapeMyBrain on November 4, 2008 at 12:41 PM
Indeed I see the hypocrisy nearly every time I read a post by the left wingers:
Fight for the right to vote…
so you can stuff the ballot box.
Fight for economic justice…
so you can take from the people that earned the money and give to those that did not.
Fight for labor unions…
so they can bankrupt our businesses (see UAW for proof).
Fight for fair elections…
so you can take anonymous and illegal donations from non-Americans
Fight for civil liberties…
but not for “Joe the Plumber” or anybody else on the political right.
Fight to tax the rich…
Then keep lowering the number where you call people rich.
Fight to lower crime…
by taking away the right to bear arms from the law abiding citizens so only the criminals have guns.
Fight to save our environment…
by espousing junk science and extremist positions that damage every other aspect of our lives.
Yep, I see plenty of hypocrisy.
Hawthorne on November 4, 2008 at 1:07 PM
Ed, you look like Tony Soprano in your Hot Seat picture.
GreatGatsby on November 4, 2008 at 4:44 PM
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