My Predictions
posted at 11:20 am on November 3, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Earlier, Allahpundit gave his predictions for the national race. I’m a bit more optimistic, especially given the movement over the last few days, but I’m more or less a born optimist anyway. I think John McCain will win a squeaker over Barack Obama, 273-265, by holding Florida, Nevada, and adding Pennsylvania as a trade for Virginia:
Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling. As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength. The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points. Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.
I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada. Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states. It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate. I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point. GOTV will make a difference, but so will those undecideds — and as I’ve said before, if that many people still haven’t made up their mind to vote Obama, then I expect most of them to take the safe fall-back position of McCain.
The Senate and the House look like a lock for Democrats, however. I expect to see a 57-43 split in the upper chamber, counting the independent caucusers for the Dems. In the House, Pelosi will marginally increase her majority to 237-198. There are just too many open Republican seats in this election, regardless of the narrowing of the generic Congressional balloting.
Win, lose, or draw, however, I’ll be broadcasting election results live at AM 1280 The Patriot tomorrow from 8-11 pm CT. We’ll have live chat and live video broadcasting during the returns. Be sure to tune in right here at Hot Air, where we will celebrate the finale of the most remarkable presidential election in my lifetime!
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You are KIDDING me? Are you kidding?
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Right on. One thing about freedom is we can create our own heaven, and, unfortunately, our own hell. The left doesn’t seem to get this and believs that if they take more from the hard working and give to the slackers there will be parity. The US tried this with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack, which was pushed, backed, protected and steamrolled by the Democrats, and while there was some good that came out of it the results are the financial mess we are in. The left has made political hay about the recent crisis by blaming Bush and Republicans, but, President Clinton recently chastised the Democratically controlled congress for blocking all attempts to correct it. Free enterprise does work when you keep Big Government from interfering with it. There are many financial experts in the US that say that if Obama wins we will face a world wide depression. The reason is that the Democrats don’t understand about business and believe that anyone that has a business is wealthy. They don’t understand that higher taxes equals less profits, equals job lay-offs and businesses moving to China, equals more and more people out of work that can’t afford the goods, equals a depression. Economics 101, apparently not taught in the Ivy League schools the elites send their children to.
DL13 on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM
I think this scenario is plausible. It is an uphill battle, and vote fraud looms as an explosive factor, but it is doable. There is a lot of prayer going on. People understand how much is at stake. If the nation chooses wrongly it is going to be impossible, save the mercy of God, to turn back.
Thanks for opening up registration.
paul1149 on November 3, 2008 at 11:40 AM
Someone said this last night (Manly Rash maybe) and I’m going to shamelessly lift it…
Move south and get yourself safe!!! We’ll worry about your area later!
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:41 AM
Ed,
Let’s make sure we have this right. You predict that the Republicans will lose only one seat in the House? (You know they hold 199 seats today, right?)
paul006 on November 3, 2008 at 11:41 AM
Please double check all votes in blue states!
If EVERY American hears the truth about obama-ZIP!
christene on November 3, 2008 at 11:41 AM
We need to elect this guy:
During the rally, Shawn Bryan, a former sergeant in the U.S. Marine Corps., said Murtha visited his unit in Iraq in 2005. At the time, Murtha told the soldiers “what a great job we did,” Bryan said, only to see him tell his district back home he no longer supported the effort.
Bryan said he didn’t put his life on the line for his country “just so some fat little bastard can come back and run his mouth.”
It was the second time during his speech that Bryan, who flew in from Albuquerque, New Mexico, had called Murtha a “fat little bastard” during his speech. His remarks were not publicly repudiated at the rally.
In an interview after the rally, Russell told PolitickerPA.com Bryan’s comments didn’t reflect his own feelings, but he did the defend the fellow veteran.
The remarks are reflective of the anger many marines, who have lost dozens of fellow soldiers during combat, feel toward Murtha, he said.
“Am I going to throw him under the bus for it?” Russell asked. “No. I understand — he’s going to say what he believes.”
Murtha, who himself served 37 years in the Marine Corps and won a Bronze Star and two Purple Hearts, said about the 2005 shootings of Iraq civilians in Haditha: “Our troops overreacted because of the pressure on them, and they killed innocent civilians in cold blood.”
Charges have been dropped against all but one of the Marines
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 11:42 AM
I believe Nevada will decide the election. Which will make it very interesting for the networks because they can’t call it until well after Nevada’s polls close. I think it’s going to come down to less than 2000 votes in Nevada.
BUT, if McCain wins both PA and VA, we can start the party.
rockmom on November 3, 2008 at 11:42 AM
Here in Chicago they are already barricading up to 2 miles from the park. Preparing for a loss?
sherry on November 3, 2008 at 11:42 AM
This is why I like you Ed. Glass half full, love it.
I think Nevada is iffy at best. I’ll say a prayer.
FireBlogger on November 3, 2008 at 11:42 AM
If McCain wins, and I think he will, his first act should be to appoint a special prosecutor into the MSM and their ties to Obama. Just for the heck of it.
Dick Nixon on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Very well said. This same is seen nationally in people not totally turning on the Dems for the credit crisis.
progressoverpeace on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Same as mine except trade VA for NV. The advantage of that is any MSM attempt to depress turnout in the West would be irrelevant (assuming Mac takes ND and MT comfortably). His route to 270 would be entirely through the South and Rust Belt.
Ponz on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM
So it all comes down to PA (and some luck in other states). Come on PA, this is your chance to save the country!
goldeagle11 on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Rove has it, as of this AM, at 338 to 220 Obama. I’m inclined to believe him more than most others.
Vernon Hardapple on November 3, 2008 at 11:43 AM
Heck! For the amount of pessimism he demonstrated in that post, give him the vent.
AubieJon on November 3, 2008 at 11:44 AM
Ed, you need to shift Virginia to red. O has been steadily dropping in the polls here forever, RCP average has him at only a 4 pt lead now. McCain/Palin is gonna take The Old Dominion.
Oldnuke on November 3, 2008 at 11:44 AM
I think McCain, in the immortal words of Jesse Ventura (who won as governor in Minnesota despite all polls suggesting otherwise and every single pundit – EVERY SINGLE ONE – saying he had no chance) will “shock the world” and narrowly pull off a win in the electoral college, the only win that matters.
He’ll lose the popular vote by a percent or two, but who cares? Until we change our system (which I happen to feel is very flawed), them’s the breaks.
I’m a P.U.M.A by the way, a McCain Democrat. There are MANY of us, and we’re not being counted by the polls or the mainstream media. Just watch….of course, watching Keith Olbermann have a nervous breakdown on the air will just be the icing on the cake. I also particularly look forward to Andrew Sullivan’s final meltdown. That’s gonna be flat-out awesome!
johnboy123 on November 3, 2008 at 11:44 AM
I believe N.H. and possibly Iowa might come through for McCain too. That will really be icing on the cake.
suzieviews on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM
I’m being cautiously optimistic and saying the Ed’s predictions will be correct. I live in NYC, one of the most liberal places in the nation, and I know a lot of people that are voting for McCain. A very liberal friend of mine is voting for Mac b/c he’s a lawyer, makes lots of $ and knows that his money would be lost under Obama. My wife’s parents are democrats, have always voted democrat and don’t like either candidate, so they are sitting it out for the first time ever. I have a feeling there’s going to be a lot of people like that, which will hopefully help McCain.
jks16 on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM
I am keeping up prayers for our Republic. I do so hope McCain/Palin, not bho/jb.
L
letget on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM
PUMA Power!!! They lie to pollsters with relish…
rhodeymark on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM
I think Ed has it right, but for VA, which stays Red. 286-252 McCain.
james23 on November 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Praying is good. Voting is also important.
I am voting for McCain tomorrow. Never mind the whiners and the Palin-philes who see only a fresh, attractive face; as a leader and patriot, McCain is so far ahead of Osama Obama that it’s not even a contest.
Granted, McCain loses to Obama if lies, fraud and historic media malfeasance are factored in. But if that is what this country has been redcued to, I’m not certain even prayer can help.
MrScribbler on November 3, 2008 at 11:46 AM
Ed, you undoubtedly know more about this than I do – and I thank you for your tireless efforts on our behalf. I will be happy for the 273, but I think it is McCain by a landslide!
The win is good, but I’m backing the landslide. It would be great if McCain won all the 50 + Barry’s 7 other states!
kybowexar on November 3, 2008 at 11:46 AM
The first count I did came out 269-269, including the one EV in Maine. It is very possible for this to happen and the election go to the House. That would make things VERY interesting for all those supposed “Blue Dogs” from Republican districts. Would they vote the way their districts voted, or for Obama?
I would really like to see this happen in my lifetime.
rockmom on November 3, 2008 at 11:46 AM
I hope to God you’re right, even though I think that the Democrats have just done too much work to win this election:
1. Purchasing Power (The Soros Supremacy theorem)
2. ACORN
3. Carefully crafted Financial/Housing crisis (Waters, Meeks, Pelosi, Frank, and Dodd in conjunction with Raines and Jim Johnson)
4. The Anti-republican sentiment spun from the Bush Presidency.
5. Everything bad about this man is chopped, skewed and repackaged as “racism”.
This is one of those few moments where I sincerely hope I’m wrong.
leetpriest on November 3, 2008 at 11:46 AM
A win is a win for my beloved Republic. As long as McCain/Palin get in, I’m a happy camper.
ny59giants on November 3, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Obama’s coal comments may have cost him Ohio, Virgina and Pennsylvania. That would be a poetic end.
Star20 on November 3, 2008 at 11:47 AM
I hope you are right. I am not as confident. But I remember feeling like Bush didn’t have a chance in 2004 and he won then.
cptthumper on November 3, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Check this out, with all but the last two days of Early Voting in NC, the Youth vote is at the same levels statistically as it was in 2004 in NC
http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/young-voters-still-absent-early-voting
jp on November 3, 2008 at 11:47 AM
Ha, I have pretty much the same map. but something tells me that Obama won’t be able to pull virginia off. I just don’t see how, not with their history and culture being at odds with everything Obama stands for. Northern Virginia or not, virginia is a Red State and the only reason Warner, Webb and caine have seen success are because they are conservative Democrats. And the Republicans haven’t been acting like themselves these days.
I agree with the first post though, it would be precious to see the look of the MSM faces if McCain were to pull this off. I will be sure to check out MSNBC for starters.
Othwerise, we can hope we hold on to the Senate and keep Obama and his radical agenda in check until 2010 when a hopefully rejuvenated Conservative movement steps up.
Daemonocracy on November 3, 2008 at 11:47 AM
This is optimistic, but realistic. If he wins Pennsylvania, John McCain ought to send a fruit basket to John Murtha.
Greek Fire on November 3, 2008 at 11:48 AM
Obama doesn’t accept competition graciously. He sued to get his opponents off the ballot. There are going to be a lot of law suits starting Wednesday.
Count to 10 on November 3, 2008 at 11:48 AM
DeathToMediaHacks on November 3, 2008 at 11:38 AM
you do not understand southern voting habits. NC has been about 50/30/20 since the civil rights passage. dem/rep/ind.
the leaders of the dem party at that time switched to being rep 9Sen Helms) and the leaders of the rep party switched to being dem (Martin Luther King) yet the rank and file dems did not switch. Therefore in elections the dems vote for rep on the national ticket and dem in the local elections. The rank and file reps of the civil rights did swithc (mostly blacks) and become dems.
Same in FL. and SC, in GA, in Miss. ect.
Zell Miller is a perfect example of this.
Sen Helms another.
you can not relie on voter registrations on early voters. There will be many many dems that vote for McCain in NC, FL, etc because of the history of the civil rights fight of the 1960’s
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 11:48 AM
I can’t bring myself to believe that CO is going to go with obama. I think they will go red.
cmc on November 3, 2008 at 11:48 AM
That’s what I had over on Allahs predictions. 273-265
and remember twas the night before the election.
rightonamerica on November 3, 2008 at 11:48 AM
If McCain wins, we have to immediately call out the MSM and polls and completely discredit them for good.
jp on November 3, 2008 at 11:48 AM
eeyore respects Ed’s optimism. eeyore remains eeyore. eeyore suspects Ed’s been drinking Happy Juice by the case.
eeyore on November 3, 2008 at 11:48 AM
I like your map Capt. Ed, but I put NH and VA in the red, along with 1 or 2 or ME’s EV.
ManlyRash you have been an inspiration to me for the last couple months, thanks for you enthusiasm it has kept my spirits up here in the blue lands of CA.
Poor_Knight on November 3, 2008 at 11:49 AM
VA WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA!
Sorry for the all caps but I can’t say this enough. Bush won VA handily in ‘00 and ‘04. It has not changed that much since then. The black vote already went for Kerry. McCain will trounce Obama in the entire state from Quantico south.
Bison91 on November 3, 2008 at 11:49 AM
Virginia has never elected to a national office or recent Senate seat anyone even remotely as liberal as Obama.It would be utterly unprecedented.
Barry cannot bus enough Maryland and DC voters to catch up.
jjshaka on November 3, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Jester from India knows best. Must read comment!!!
May America follow his sentiments.
Entelechy on November 3, 2008 at 11:50 AM
I agree with this map almost state for state.
There is NO CHANCE that Obama wins Ohio. I knocked on over 100 doors yesterday and 72 people answered their door. 68 McCain – 4 Obama. This is in vital Lake County where the saying is, “as goes Lake County, so goes Ohio”. In 2004, John King pulled us up on CNN to show a 52-48 margin for Bush. It wasn’t that the people told me McCain, it was how they said it. There is alot of anger,passion, and frustration in my community and I’m sure through the country. For months we’ve been told how we think, feel, and will vote. Our voices will be heard on Nov 4th.
kriscoleman on November 3, 2008 at 11:50 AM
Ed, I hope to God you’re right.
My own prediction: Obama wins with +/- 294 electoral votes. McCain, obviously, the rest. Pennsylvania could end up in the Republican column, I agree with that.
However, the main reason I don’t see McCain win is that he has to win basically every single key battleground state and then an extra one.
Not likely, to put it mildly.
BTW: great you guys opened registration.
Michael van der Galien on November 3, 2008 at 11:50 AM
I thought that too this morning but then I saw the Rasmussen poll and all my optimism went down the drain. I simply don’t know what to believe right now. I strat to be be depressed again.
clemycali on November 3, 2008 at 11:50 AM
I hope that you are right, but I don’t think that the news about Obama’s policy on coal is getting out in the msm. If we had another week maybe it would be known in PA,WV,IN & OH . Only God can change the outcome of this election at this late date.
lewis1940 on November 3, 2008 at 11:51 AM
Manly Rash never abandons his post. (except when he has to take a bathroom break or pick up more scotch at the liquor store).
I will be here through election night, at which time you are free to heap ecomiums and laudits at my feet.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Well analyzed, Ed. There are too many GOP seats in trouble to see a big change in the House or Senate… although here in PA, there are seven competitive House races (6 D seats today, 1 R). If the GOP can hold its competitive seat and take three or four [which is a decent bet with Murtha and Kanjorski looking like losers and Carney and Altmire also in trouble]… it could be 200 or 202 in the House. It is possible, but not likely, that the GOP could take all seven of these seats, which would not bode well for Pelousy and Co.
The GOP also has a chance to regain the majority in the state House thanks to some scandals in the western part of the state involving Dems. This would be huge.
Goldeagle, we’re giving it our best.
either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:52 AM
ED please add this “1 800 GET OBAMA – Barack Obama’s Commercial” to Hot Air gallery thx
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUZqCyQWeSg
will13smith on November 3, 2008 at 11:52 AM
Ed’s map looks plausible to me…and it doesn’t hurt that he’s my favorite blogger. [grin] I’m not wildly optimistic about PA. Obama has done nearly everything imaginable to alienate PA voters. I’m hoping he succeeded, but I haven’t forgotten what things looked like on the ground there last time.
ElectricPhase on November 3, 2008 at 11:52 AM
I said it on another tread get out and call in OH,PA,VA,NM,and CO these are coal states let them know the O’s plan for their jobs this made WV firmly red trust me I live here Ky was safe for McCain anyhow but man are people here in the coal fields mad as he!! over that tape.It works you just have to let them know.
tee866 on November 3, 2008 at 11:53 AM
I have voted for the winning president in every election since I was 18 years old. Unfortunately, this means I voted for Clinton in 92 and 96. I became more informed and voted for Bush in 00 and 04. I hope my winning streak continues because I am voting Mccain/Palin in 08. I like your prediction map and I agree. I really don’t understand why this race is as close as it is. McCain is the clear choice.
adm on November 3, 2008 at 11:54 AM
Then just stay here. Stay on this particular thread. There’s no need to venture out unless you’re going to vote early. Really? What’s the point? Unless you can go sway an undecided, there’s no point at looking at another poll or going to another news site. For your own sanity, stay put.
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:55 AM
Do I have to fly out to CA and smack you in the head? Snap out of it. I told you the polls were going to suck. Expect it get even worse tomorrow. Buck up. Get out the vote for McCain. He is going to win and win BIG.
Make it happen, people. Bring this shit HOME.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:55 AM
You are officially too young to remember the shenanigans of the recent media polling past presidential elections. I think McCain wins.
Maxx on November 3, 2008 at 11:55 AM
I am firmly entrenched in the idea of a 40 state win.
I hope it is all 50, but I’ll be happy with just 40.
It is time for America to tell the world we are still Americans – and Americans vote for John McCain this year.
kybowexar on November 3, 2008 at 11:55 AM
I will be voting tomorrow and working to get out the vote while manning my post and rallying the troops.
Do your part. Make it happen.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 AM
I don’t know anyone who ia not voting Obama
Except me my wife,my kids,their spouses,my neighbors
my friends,people I know……I think there are a few others
norryrr on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 AM
My fear is that the people wouldn’t be aware of the tape because of the media. Are you telling me “they know?”
Please tell me the miners and their families are mad as hell! We should all be mad as hell because bankrupting coal affects us all – not just the miners and their families.
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 AM
I am in agreement with those who say Obama does not take Virginia. The polls do not reflect the race on the ground. We cannot keep signs, stickers and McCain Palin stuff in stock at the office. We were out almost as soon as we got it in. And just a little FYI – I live in the “swing” area of Hampton Roads – as we go so will go Virginia. I think McCain holds – though not as comfortably as Bush did four years ago. The “blue” trend has nothing to do with a more liberal state – note they don’t actually run liberal Democrats down here. Even Tim Kaine who is a liberal at heart ran like his predecessor Mark Warner, by all counts a conservative Democrat. Webb was a fluke – look for him to lose that seat in 2012.
Govgirl on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 AM
I hope you are correct but I’m unfortunately not so opimistic.
Texas74 on November 3, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Every time I read your handle, my mind crossprocesses to Chemical Ali. I can’t help it. I think you’re our secret weapon.
Don’t worry about Ra$$mu$$en, luv. Just GOTV.
either orr on November 3, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Conventional wisdom had Hillary walking away from the nomination.
Now conventional wisdom is saying that Obama will win.
Keith_Indy on November 3, 2008 at 11:58 AM
I really don’t think McCain will pull off PA if he can’t win NH and CO.
haner on November 3, 2008 at 11:58 AM
To people who say that the coal issue will make a difference. It will help, but as someone in Ohio, I can confidently say Ohio was going to McCain even before this. The coal thing will just make the southeast go to McCain in droves.
MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Obama doesn’t accept casual observation graciously.
Barring a convincing victory by McCain, I think we can expect lawsuits.
Lehosh on November 3, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Tru dat, Manly. Might have to stock up on scotch, cigars and shotgun shells tonight.
Speaking of shotgun shells……..Did anyone notice the Dick’s Sporting Goods circular yesterday? The first few pages were completely dedicated to rifles/shotguns and ammo. They even have mail-in rebate on shotgun shells (12 or 20 ga slugs) for a price of 98 cents per box.
Dr.Cwac.Cwac on November 3, 2008 at 11:58 AM
Cross my paws and hope ur right!
Dr_Woof on November 3, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Where the hell have you been?
Oh, crazy ain’t bad. Nuts is bad.
Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 11:59 AM
I’ve seen this posted a few places, but I think it is incorrect. According to the web page you linked, as well as other news sources I’ve checked, MD’s law only applies when a majority of states agree to do the same.
Y-not on November 3, 2008 at 11:59 AM
I made 300 calls this weekend MR. I called folks in OH, PA, and CO. I’m also commenting on a local TOPIX site (a forum). I live in a bright-blue county and it’s very depressing, but I’m trying my best to open some eyes. Been trying for MONTHS. I live in Indiana and I know that even here, every vote will count.
Keep us positive MR. We need you.
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Word has gotten out and continues to get ut, thanks to the New Media. And people talk to one another – by phone and email. They know what a danger Obama poses to the Republic. And they will vote against him – in record numbers.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:59 AM
My prediction: PAIN AND TEARS.
Hollowpoint on November 3, 2008 at 12:00 PM
clemycali, the party split in Rasmussen is 6% and they are only able to get a 6% lead for Obama, it’s far from over.
MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 12:00 PM
ManlyRash, the cure for eeyoreism.
either orr on November 3, 2008 at 12:00 PM
IF EVERY CONSEVATIVE GOES OUT TO VOTE TOMORROW MCCAIN WILL WIN……….GET UP GO VOTE
norryrr on November 3, 2008 at 12:00 PM
You cannot tell from appearances how things will go. Sometimes imagination makes things out far worse than they are; yet without imagination not much can be done.
Those people who are imaginative see many more dangers than perhaps exist; certainly many more than will happen; but then they must also pray to be given that extra courage to carry this far-reaching imagination.
But for everyone, surely, what we have gone through in this period …this is the lesson: never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never-in nothing, great or small, large or petty – never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense.
Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.
Winston Churchill
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 12:00 PM
There will still be lawsuits – despite the size of McCain’s margin of victory – but they will be dismissed.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:56 AM
Yes a lot of people here watch fox news not the msm because of how they treated Hillary in the primarys it opened a lot of eyes the Clinton’s are thought of very well here don’t ask me why.
Oh trust me the miner’s I know and that’s a pretty large number since that’s my husbands job are all mad as he!! over this tape they like being able to make a good wage with security that its not going anywhere now they worry. Its not pretty here right now.
tee866 on November 3, 2008 at 12:01 PM
He’s low balling it.
Fletch54 on November 3, 2008 at 12:01 PM
Watch as the Red Sea flows from the eastern seaboard thru the south and then the complete west turns bright red.
McCain will win this election in a blow-out!
Coal miners and those who cling to their guns and religion will celebrate in the streets.
Rovin on November 3, 2008 at 12:01 PM
We shall never surrender.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 12:01 PM
I disagree with you on two points, Ed:
I think McCain holds Virginia (AJ Strata is seeing a lot of anecdotal evidence of a strong McCain surge in northern VA) and takes Michigan. Call me crazy on the latter, but the non-Detroit and Lansing portions of the state will swing heavily for McCain, and there may be enough of a backlash against Detroit’s corrupt ex-mayor that it hurts The One there. Regardless of how Michigan goes, I think The ‘Cuda was right to say “Don’t give up on it.”
irishspy on November 3, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Unseen,
You make a strong point, the party ID advantage in N.C. is unique. I would contend that it’s hard to compare it to Florida because of the way Miami, West Palm Beach skew with the racial/ethnic dynamic and thus, skew with your historical trajectory of Dixiecrats, turned Republicans (which I agree with).
But the problem you’re not accounting for is the massive demographic shifts in N.C. over the past decade, particularly the past 5 years. I don’t think Dixiecrat Dems are going to vote for Obama in huge numbers. But recently arrived Dems are going to vote Obama in overwhelming numbers. And when you have a 20 point partisan ID advantage, as you seem to suggest, you really only have to win 75% of that vote, which all the polls indicate Obama will do. Check out some of the internals on these polls of N.C. The same demographic changes explain why VA is going for Obama as well.
I think what people are missing is that no one argues that Obama is changing the voting patterns of people who tend to vote Republican. What is being argued is that the nation, as a whole, has just moved closer to the center as a result of the last 8 years. And, as big cities become too expensive to live in, city dwellers find themselves moving to places like VA, NC, Florida and eventually GA will go this way as well.
DeathToMediaHacks on November 3, 2008 at 12:02 PM
I will repeat what I said in the last thread. As a Virginian, if VA goes, we’re screwed. But, like I also said in the last thread (with cautious optimism), I doubt that will happen because Obama is far too liberal for Virginians. I wish I could guarantee a win, but I am nowhere near as solid and strong-willed as ManlyRash and the like.
I will say this, though. Go out tomorrow and VOTE for McCain/Plain 08! Tell your family, your friends; explain everything to them (truthfully-no conspiracy theories) about what Obama has done and will do. We must fight; out liberty and our capitalism depends on it!
Achilles on November 3, 2008 at 12:02 PM
That is… “Non-Lansing.” I was a bit unclear there. :)
irishspy on November 3, 2008 at 12:02 PM
McCain wins with 275 Electoral Votes to Barry’s 263.
McCain wins: ID, NV, MT, WY, UT, AZ, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MN, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, FL, SC, OH, WV, PA, VA, NH, AK, and 1 of the 4 EVs in Maine. (Upsets in bold)
Barry wins: WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, IA, MO, WI, IL, MI, NC, DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, CT, RI, MA, HI AND 3 OF THE 4 EVs in Maine.
Don’t burst my bubble yet.
omnipotent on November 3, 2008 at 12:02 PM
Rove is up to something. Keep an eye out on him.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Hey, fellow Californian! Don’t despair! I think Ed’s predictions look pretty good… IGNORE THE POLLS! See if you can catch some Rush Limbaugh this morning. He usually cheers me up. Otherwise, go into media blackout!
Hang in there!
Y-not on November 3, 2008 at 12:03 PM
Ed,
Any news on Jane Fonda’s back pain? Is she in traction yet?
LOL!
Dr Evil on November 3, 2008 at 12:04 PM
I missed that. Mea culpa! That actually does my heart good!
Funny that the articles I had read on it in the local papers never mentioned it, that I recall.
eforhan on November 3, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Worse: Conventional wisdom had it as a Hillary vs. Rudy in the general.
Count to 10 on November 3, 2008 at 12:06 PM
As an ex-Michigander, I appreciate the encouragement you bring. How’s my old home of Macomb looking?
either orr on November 3, 2008 at 12:06 PM
DeathToMediaHacks on November 3, 2008 at 12:02 PM
I am one of those that have moved to NC in the last decade. I moved because the liberal idiots in Pa destroyed my states economy. most of the people fleeing the northeast are fleeing because of the liberal policies BHO wants to put into practice on a national scale. We have no other place to flee too. We will make our stand here in this place at this time.
surely from this period of ten months this is the lesson: never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never-in nothing, great or small, large or petty – never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy. We stood all alone a year ago, and to many countries it seemed that our account was closed, we were finished. All this tradition of ours, our songs, our School history, this part of the history of this country, were gone and finished and liquidated.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 12:06 PM
Please share this with Obama Trolls when you meet up with one they need reassurance that their “relavant”
Obama Trolls they are so cute look at their photo.
http://rightwingchicky.wordpress.com/2008/11/02/so-the-goal-is-to-create-apathy/
Dr Evil on November 3, 2008 at 12:07 PM
This is my feeling on this whole election cycle:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qlCC1GOwFw
I also think, win or lose, this will end up being my anthem for the next 4 years. It’s doubly appropriate since I achieved my tae-kwon-do red belt last Thursday night.
So, whenever Congressional members, and White House personnel show up on camera, I’m basically going to be thinking in my head: STFU!!!!
Sultry Beauty on November 3, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Don’t misunderestimate the coal comments…my family exists because of coal, even though I’ve never been in a mine. My respect for miners is second only to members of the military. Talk about disrespect…working 12 hours a day in a hole, while being considered a dumb hick, and a destroyer of the environment, by people whose lights are on ONLY because of coal…might as well be spit upon by a daisy-toting Vietnam protester. KY & WV were never in question, but this resonates in VA and PA.
Where is Grue???
hbinva on November 3, 2008 at 12:07 PM
Indigestion?
Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 12:09 PM
Let us all HOPE and PRAY that this happens!
Repubtallygirl on November 3, 2008 at 12:10 PM
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