My Predictions
posted at 11:20 am on November 3, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Earlier, Allahpundit gave his predictions for the national race. I’m a bit more optimistic, especially given the movement over the last few days, but I’m more or less a born optimist anyway. I think John McCain will win a squeaker over Barack Obama, 273-265, by holding Florida, Nevada, and adding Pennsylvania as a trade for Virginia:

Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling. As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength. The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points. Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.
I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada. Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states. It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate. I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point. GOTV will make a difference, but so will those undecideds — and as I’ve said before, if that many people still haven’t made up their mind to vote Obama, then I expect most of them to take the safe fall-back position of McCain.
The Senate and the House look like a lock for Democrats, however. I expect to see a 57-43 split in the upper chamber, counting the independent caucusers for the Dems. In the House, Pelosi will marginally increase her majority to 237-198. There are just too many open Republican seats in this election, regardless of the narrowing of the generic Congressional balloting.
Win, lose, or draw, however, I’ll be broadcasting election results live at AM 1280 The Patriot tomorrow from 8-11 pm CT. We’ll have live chat and live video broadcasting during the returns. Be sure to tune in right here at Hot Air, where we will celebrate the finale of the most remarkable presidential election in my lifetime!
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I don’t even want McCain to win because I like McCain. I only want McCain to win to see the MSM reaction.
lodge on November 3, 2008 at 11:22 AM
I love your predictions and pray they come true!!
wytammic on November 3, 2008 at 11:22 AM
John McCain will be elected president on November 4, 2008.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:22 AM
I think this is spot on.
romanianhacker on November 3, 2008 at 11:23 AM
I like this prediction a lot better. I hope it works out this way…
changer1701 on November 3, 2008 at 11:23 AM
I would buy your prediction if it wasn’t for ACORN. They throw a monkey in the wrench that makes it impossible to know what’s gonna happen in OH, etc.
Meric1837 on November 3, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Ed, I love reading your work but you’re nuts. Then again, I get my pessimism from my father.
Ian on November 3, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Come on, Pennsylvania! You’ve got to help us all out here. The country is depending on you! We’re all going to be working as hard as you – but you can’t let one vote go by. We need you. All of you.
You’re going to help save us all Pennsylvania!
wise_man on November 3, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Ed, I think you are as wrong as wrong can be. I think its pure fantasy that McCain wins Pennsylvania (especially if he loses Virginia). I think you’re wrong in at least six states, and the above was based on naivete and wishful thinking.
But I have never, ever so badly wanted to be proven wrong.
Have a big steaming dish of crow ready for me on the 5th. I will devour it with relish, if given the opportunity.
Professor Blather on November 3, 2008 at 11:23 AM
Doesn’t western Virginia have coal? Anything to counter the northern Va. blue votes… I like this prediction bettah.
thespottedowl on November 3, 2008 at 11:24 AM
Capt. Ed, Maryland’s ten electoral votes this year will go to whichever candidate wins the overall popular vote (of all states). I take it you’re predicting Sen. Obama to win the popular but lose the electoral?
eforhan on November 3, 2008 at 11:24 AM
I love you Ed, but come on…..
toliver on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
If we win expect the rioting to begin, and the lawsuits.
skatz51 on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
ACORN’s effect on this election is not as profound as you fear and will be amply offset by the turnout of legitimate voters, who will elect McCain.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Let’s pray that Ed is right.
Lance Murdock on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Better than Allah’s.
I just hope it’s a blowout either way. If McCain were to pull California, for instance, so that it’s a clear McCain victory, then maybe we won’t have the massive riots…. and it would crush the media and liberals.
On the other hand, it’s more likely an Obama blowout…. and then they HAVE to own the next few years. And I’ll be getting a gun or five. Thankfully, I’m still in the most conservative state in the US, Utah. There’s no question where we will end up.
Vanceone on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Sounds good, Ed…
hippie_chucker on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I hope you’re right, Ed. I really, really do.
Nineball on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I love ya Ed!!!!!
Please be right!
Keemo on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I have been making calls into Virginia this morning for McCain. Slight lead for McCain. One undecided voter I talked to for quite some time, she was leaning Obama and on her own stated she was leaning McCain and had good reasons why she was hesitant on Obama.
texasconserv on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
Get’em Ed. Nice work.
The only difference between my guesswork and you was VA. I still hold VA can stay red.
Fozzy Bear on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I agree with your map, though I got 286 by giving McCain VA. I agree its too close to call there.
Vashta.Nerada on November 3, 2008 at 11:25 AM
I’m already plucking the feathers. Do you prefer a wing or a drumstick?
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Ah, the audacity of hope! I hope you are right!
GuitarPlayer52 on November 3, 2008 at 11:26 AM
Ed,
I very much hope you’re right. But I agree with Fozzy about VA. I think McCain can hold onto it.
Sir Corky on November 3, 2008 at 11:26 AM
I think the Korean grocery store owners will put Obama over the top…
ninjapirate on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I take evan a small victory for McCain. I just pray that the “coal tape” makes the rounds on radio and tv and switch a few votes to Mac. That would guarantee him PA.
clemycali on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I hope it’s not that close. There’ll be lawsuits flying around all over the country. Obama doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy who accepts defeat graciously.
infidel65 on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I hope you’re right, Ed!
This gave me a little more hope for the day.
Capital Mess on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I honestly see Virginia staying red and I would not be surprised at all about MN flipping either. I mean I know that you are in that state and you know it well, so I guess I can accept your prediction about MN.
MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Vanceone said:
Okay, the people who think McCain is going to win are officially crazy.
Ian on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
McCain will carry Virginia….
Keemo on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Just a quick reminder, it does not matter the average of the last 1000 polls.
The only poll that matters is the one we hold tomorrow.
Take a friend to vote.
Elizabetty on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I’m with you, Ed, adding Murtha will get voted into retirement and Al Franken will go back to Air America. Oh, that’s right, Air America went out of business because they sucked.
Sergeant Tim on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I admire your optimism, though I’m a bit more realistic. I predict that McCain has maybe a 30% chance to pull this one off, and if he does, it’ll be a squeaker.
Vic on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
What you said — plus I really want to see Palin win.
aunursa on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I think MAC will take NH and VA in addition to the above.
stenwin77 on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I’m with you; I really think Florida is going for McCain. I’m not sure about VA; I’m hoping the coal fracus will pull them back RED.
paustin110 on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
I’ll accept your map and raise you Wisconsin.
Kini on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM
It won’t be close. And he’ll have no choice but to accept it.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM
<– holds a Bic lighter aloft for Capt Ed.
fluffy on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM
I certainly hope you’re right. As an added bonus if you are, it would seem that any claim of fraud from the left would be moot after the ACORN shinanegans. However, rationality has never been the strong suit of the “commander in thief” crowd from 2000, so I’m not holding my breath.
Meric1837 on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM
I love what I see. And I pray that it will be! Save Our Country!
sheebe on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Thanks Ed! I feel hopey-changey now.
Cicero43 on November 3, 2008 at 11:28 AM
This has been a year of one great surprise after another. It won’t surprise me in the least if Ed’s scenario takes shape.
RushBaby on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM
McCain will take a couple of other states you never dreamed he would take.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM
l sure like the looks of this map better than Allah’s. I still think Minnesota bears watching. If it goes red, all bets are off.
creatocon on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM
think the Korean grocery store owners will put Obama over the top…
ninjapirate on November 3, 2008 at 11:27 AM
now that was funny. So you remember the south central riots also?
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Yes, we have coal. Not quite the industry of WV, OH, PA, etc. But it is not to be discounted.
Fozzy Bear on November 3, 2008 at 11:30 AM
And remember…BO and Acorn have NOT been mobilized in Blue states, they’ve focused on traditionally red and purple…there will be more than one blue state that turns bright red IMHO
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 11:30 AM
I alternate between McCain landslide and reprimanding myself for being overconfident and jinxing the effort.
PierreLegrand on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Ed, I don’t think McCain can win Pennsylvania. But hey you have to get to 270 some way. I also think McCain will hold on to Virginia.
nazo311 on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
your results are similar to mine
except Virgina +12
and colorado could ‘flip’ red
American’s won’t vote for an unexperienced canidate that they don’t know and can’t trust
the coal issue only seals the deal in the critical states!
audiotom on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
When the dust settles, the only ones who will be screaming will be the code pink moonbats.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Ed, That’s almost EXACTLY my map. I just gave McCain 1 EV in Maine as well on a hope and a prayer, but other than that, exactly the same…
bilups on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Ed,
I sincerely hope you’re correct, otherwise God help us all.
zoom119 on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
From your lips to God’s ears.
I pray, too, that Franken goes down in flames–and Murtha. Those two will be my consolation prize if The One wins.
calcajun on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
I don’t think McCain will get PA, but I think he will get VA and CO, which still wins it for McCain.
Maxx on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
I’m a newbie (poster only, because I’ve been reading/lurking for a long time), but my prediction in the other thread is exactly the same as Ed’s. I feel like I’ve tapped into The Special.
haikusrock on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
don’t forget Brunner in Ohio.
if McCain wins, McCain better get Secret Service team to protect Joe the plumber’s life
jp on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Thanks for the optimism! It’s a breath of fresh air. :) I have not ruled out Virginia either, to be honest…
athenanyc on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
I think your predictions are pretty similar to mine, but I think NV might go BLUE this year and VA might remain RED. I’ve been reading reports that small town Virginians are nuts about Palin and the people there are making McCain-Palin yard signs themselves for their house. I am also not sure about FL. With the early voting turnout that is being reported on FOX I think FL is going to come down to the wire like it did in 2000. McCain needs to hammer Obama tonight during Monday Night Football on his coal statements and his metastatic definitions of the ‘rich’ and the ‘middle class’. How can you trust a guy who voted 94 times to raise taxes on people making $42K and less?
jacobnyc on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
I could care less about McCain. However, enjoying the MSM meltdown would be worth a RINO victory.
mylegsareswollen on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
J.B. White Wraps it up for you Florida is a battle ground state and J.B., thinks Florida is going McCain/Palin. Florida’s got it’s War Face On;)
http://rattlergator.typepad.com/rattlergator/2008/11/food-for-thought-last-day-of-october-2008.html
Dr Evil on November 3, 2008 at 11:31 AM
I’m not that optimistic, Ian. In fact, I’m calling it for Obama. This just isn’t the Republican’s year, and the media is soooo stacked against Republicans now it’s not funny.
I just hope it’s a blowout.
On the one hand, I’m starting a new business–got to, since I got laid off. This is a bad time to be starting a business. On the other hand, though, since part of it is a resume writing service, I expect an Obama victory to massively increase layoffs, so there should be plenty of clients. I’d pimp the site, but it’s not ready yet…. *sigh*
Vanceone on November 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
This is more like it – I cannot possibly conceive of any situation where OH/PA go for Hussein. Game, set & match.
kuhio on November 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Ed,Your truly a breath of fresh-air.I no longer read the ‘negative’ articles here at H/A by eeyore.
Jed1899 on November 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
McCain = 281
Obama = 257
McCain wins : Fl, Va, Oh, PA, IN, MO, NC
Obama wins : CO, NV, NM, IO, NH
*** I feel the most telling information is the HUGE number of folks that are “NOT” responding to polsters… Obama fans SCREAM that they are for Obama, McCain fans sit back and read, watch, observe and then VOTE! We don’t want to be called redneck racists, so we just WIN IT AT THE POLLS, not “in” the polls! Why should anyone believe these polsters, they had it WRONG in the primaries, WRONG in the last two elections and they are WRONG this time with the HUGE advantage they are giving the Democrates in “weight”! So for my opinion, we DRAG McCain to victory to save our COURTS, our TALK RADIO, prevent a CIVILIAN DEFENSE FORCE, protect our MILITARY FROM HUGE CUTS and we PRESERVE THE BILL OF RIGHTS and CONSTITUTION!
Go VOTE, and may God Bless America, my home sweet home!
Mark Garnett on November 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
I’ll post what I posted on AP’s (downer) thread…
OK. Here goes.
McCain/Palin – AL, AK, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME (1), MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WY
Obama/Biden- CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, ME (3), MI, MD, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI
Add it all up and it comes up to McCain/Palin – 270 EV winning over Obama/Biden with 268 EV. The margin of victory will be a single congressional district in Maine. Of course, we won’t know for sure because Ohio is not going to finish counting until November 18.
There is an outside chance that McCain takes PA or Obama takes VA, in which case it will all be over by 9:00 EST, one way or the other.
In the popular vote, Obama/Biden will win by 2-3%, but who gives a damn about the popular vote?
———————
I think my map is the same as yours, except I have Bambi winning the popular vote in Maine, but McCain taking the First Congressional District, and thus eeeeking out a 1-point EV win.
gridlock2 on November 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
McCain will take a couple of other states you never dreamed he would take.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 11:29 AM
I agree I think Maine and Nh are in play. Iowa possibly but McCain’s ethonel is a problem but if Obama is going to tax all carbon farmers produce a lot of carbon with tractors, hogs, cows etc MN and Mi are possible pick ups.
And I think somewhat hail mary pass that CA will go for McCain.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
God help us! I pray you are right.
mariloubaker on November 3, 2008 at 11:32 AM
well this helps:
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Nov 03, 2008 /PRNewswire–USNewswire via COMTEX/ — Mike Carey, president of the Ohio Coal Association (OCA), today issued the following statement in response to just-released remarks from Senator Barack Obama about the nation’s coal industry.
“Regardless of the timing or method of the release of these remarks, the message from the Democratic candidate for President could not be clearer: the Obama-Biden ticket spells disaster for America’s coal industry and the tens of thousands of Americans who work in it.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM
ManlyRash you are awesome.
MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM
I like your map, Ed. The silent majority, and those who have hung up or lied to pollsters, are going to be out in this election. Many others will have deep second thoughts as they are pulling that lever. Undecideds will break decisively to McCain. The polls were all wrong about BHO throughout the primaries and they will be found to be even more off in the general.
The American spirit still lives and it will announce itself with a McCain popular win by 7.
progressoverpeace on November 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM
There you are! Please don’t leave me today.
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM
Buy ammo.
RobertCSampson on November 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM
I hope your right Ed. I have faith in the American people to do the right thing and vote for McCain. If they do, then this could be a McCain/Palin landslide.
imri on November 3, 2008 at 11:33 AM
BREAKING ON DRUDGE
Ohio Coal Association Says Obama Remarks Make It Clear: Obama Ticket Not Supportive of Coal
Last update: 10:42 a.m. EST Nov. 3, 2008
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Nov 03, 2008 /PRNewswire–USNewswire via COMTEX/ — Mike Carey, president of the Ohio Coal Association (OCA), today issued the following statement in response to just-released remarks from Senator Barack Obama about the nation’s coal industry.
“Regardless of the timing or method of the release of these remarks, the message from the Democratic candidate for President could not be clearer: the Obama-Biden ticket spells disaster for America’s coal industry and the tens of thousands of Americans who work in it.
“These undisputed, audio-taped remarks, which include comments from Senator Obama like ‘I haven’t been some coal booster’ and ‘if they want to build [coal plants], they can, but it will bankrupt them’ are extraordinarily misguided.
“It’s evident that this campaign has been pandering in states like Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania to attempt to generate votes from coal supporters, while keeping his true agenda hidden from the state’s voters.
“Senator Obama has revealed himself to be nothing more than a short- sighted, inexperienced politician willing to say anything to get a vote. But today, the nation’s coal industry and those who support it have a better understanding of his true mission, to ‘bankrupt’ our industry, put tens of thousands out of work and cause unprecedented increases in electricity prices.
“In addition to providing an affordable, reliable source of low-cost electricity, domestic coal holds the key to our nation’s long-term energy security – a goal that cannot be overlooked during this time of international instability and economic uncertainty.
“Few policy areas are more important to our economic future than energy issues. As voters head to the polls tomorrow, it is essential they remember that access to reliable, affordable, domestic energy supplies is essential to economic growth and stability.”
The Ohio Coal Association (OCA) is a non-profit trade association representing the interests of Ohio’s underground and surface coal mining producers. The OCA represents nearly 40 coal producing companies and more than 50 Associate Members, which include suppliers and consultants to the mining industry, coal sales agents and brokers and allied industries. The Ohio Coal Association is committed to advancing the development and utilization of Ohio coal as an abundant, economic and environmentally sound energy source.
SOURCE Ohio Coal Association
Copyright (C) 2008 PR Newswire. All rights reserved
watchdog911 on November 3, 2008 at 11:34 AM
Im hoping for 2 wins tomorrow night.
McCain – obviously
and
My University at Buffalo Bulls to come out with a win in an election night college football game.
RedBurns on November 3, 2008 at 11:34 AM
I believe this too. We have to pray today, tonight and tomorrow. Please pray to your higher power of choice and do it with GUSTO!
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:34 AM
I think it’s possible that McPalin will take 1 in Maine, but I don’t think they’ll carry the whole state. That could be Rovian brilliant in the event of a 269 split.
haikusrock on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 AM
VA worries me regardless of who wins. Polls close there at 7:00 easterm. VA will be called for Obama at 7:01 by the MSM. And with it they will call the election for Obama. This is a given, regardless what the votes actually say.
Question now will be what do the people lined up to vote in Ohio, Penn, FL and Nevada do? Do they say screw it, it’s over and go home or do they stick it out? Might not make that much of a difference in OH and PA. But in western FL (where many deep red counties are in the central time zone) and NV which is in the pacific, it might.
It will be 6:00 in western FL and 4:00 in Nevada when the race is called for Obama. Lots of people will be either on their way or getting ready to go vote after work. Will these people say the hell with it, race is over, and not show up? In Nevada it will be a wash between Obama and McCain supporters as it’s a fairly 50/50 state. But in western FL, it is deep, deep red and many net McCain votes will be lost this way.
angryed on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 AM
I want to deny Gwen Ifill a bestseller.
I want some justice for the Palin family, including poor Bristol and little Trig (referred to by journalist Liz Trotta as “it.”).
And I want my country in the hands of someone who appreciates what a dangerous world we live in.
And I want to see pride goeth before a fall, and haughty spirit before destruction. So I want the MSM and Obama to go down.
Wethal on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 AM
I have your map + one EC vote pulled from ME (I said NH in last thread, lol).
BKennedy on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 AM
For some reason I see McCain better in the ‘cold’ states, and Bommie having better chances ‘not successes necessarily’ in warm states…
I do agree with this map more though that the other one from earlier.
johnnyU on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 AM
Somehow McCain has to pull this off. The polls don’t make any sense. One day Zogby has McCain one point ahead then two days later Obama up by seven?
Zimvg on November 3, 2008 at 11:36 AM
But none of this matters because 0bama won the WORLD vote!
Princeps on November 3, 2008 at 11:36 AM
I might change my mind tomorrow morning, but this is how I see it now:
McCain holds in FL, NC, VA and NV, and picks up PA. He loses IA, CO and NM. McCain would, without willful fraud on the part of Brunner, win Ohio. Unfortunately, I believe that Brunner will hand massage the votes to help Obama carry the state. And the loss of Ohio costs McCain the election.
McCain: 266 ev
Obama: 272 ev
Obama racks up enormous wins in CA and NY, giving him a final popular vote win over McCain, 49-47, with the other 4% being spread out among other candidates.
I can already hear the cries of “EEYORE” from the masses. Much like Allah, though, I’m just calling it like I see it. I would love to be proven wrong.
Physics Geek on November 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM
An interesting post-election analysis should include an analysis of why red states go blue but blue states almost never go red. My theory is that Liberals are like locusts. They consume everything in a target area and then move on to greener pastures. NC is a good example. It is starting to turn blue and may be all the way in the next election. The reason for this is that the business friendly environments in red states attracts companies interested in growth. This in turn attracts educated and talented people, many of whom migrate from stagnant blue states like NY. These people fail to make the connection between the economic stagnation of their home states and their support for Liberal policies. Failing to make this connection they continue to support the same policies in their new red state homes. Thus they turn purple and then blue. And when over time the policies cause the state to stagnate, the locusts move on.
DerKrieger on November 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM
McCain by 1 in the pv and 2 in the EC. I only want it this way so the dems can go on a rampage to find other dems who were to lazy or hungover to go vote!
Dawg Pound on November 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM
Actually come to think of it in NV early voting was heavy Dem. So the only people left to vote are Republicans. Meaning McCain will lose a lot of net votes there too if they listen to the MSM calls.
Damn I just depressed myself some more.
angryed on November 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM
I agree 100%. I work in a place that’s full of raging libs. Although it just seems it’s full of LIBS because they are the most vocal. That’s the key.
Oink on November 3, 2008 at 11:37 AM
Ed, this is a little misleading actually. A polls margin of error is determined by the sample size. As is, polls are debateable because they tend to only sample around 800 folks on average in a given state at a time. The “already voted” numbers in those polls are thus an even smaller subset, with a larger margin of error compared to realty.
A better source would be to look at the party ID of the early and absentee voting in Florida. The problem for McCain is that even WITH the GOP advantage in absentee ballots, Dem advantage with in person early voting is still very large. And, remember, that the GOP actually tends to LOSE on election day because in 2004 they made up the vast majority of early and absentee balloting in alot the states that are close this time around, Florida and Nevada are two examples of that reversal of trend.
McCain’s only hope at this point is that Democrats in PA and FL don’t vote Democrat in significant numbers. We’ll just have to see on that front. But no other way does McCain not win because Democrats are turning out and are going to turn out in this election.
DeathToMediaHacks on November 3, 2008 at 11:38 AM
Let’s pray that it works out like you say. At least we might be put out of our misery early if PA, OH, FL, or NC don’t break our way. I won’t be staying up for the party in Chicago.
espnjunkie on November 3, 2008 at 11:38 AM
MAC CUDA RULES
driver on November 3, 2008 at 11:38 AM
I love your prediction! I’m so sick of these electoral maps on yahoo, CNN, and real clear politics showing Obama winning for the last week!!! I’m like we haven’t even voted yet. How arrogant is that.
veerite on November 3, 2008 at 11:38 AM
I am filled with despair looking at my region – New England. Solidly blue. It’s a liberal wasteland.
I just hope the election does follow this picture – or we’re in for a rough & bumpy 4 years.
KrisinNE on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Wethal on November 3, 2008 at 11:35 AM
DITTO
imri on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM
Riots will happen whether we win or lose. It’ll either be celebratory riots, a few burnings and overturned cars, some looting, for a night… or self-sustained riots that get more nasty.
That said, my predictions are close to Ed’s, except I see Virgina staying red.
Enoxo on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM
I would love to see the MSM eat a big crap sandwich!
espnjunkie on November 3, 2008 at 11:39 AM
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