My Predictions

posted at 11:20 am on November 3, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

Earlier, Allahpundit gave his predictions for the national race.  I’m a bit more optimistic, especially given the movement over the last few days, but I’m more or less a born optimist anyway.  I think John McCain will win a squeaker over Barack Obama, 273-265, by holding Florida, Nevada, and adding Pennsylvania as a trade for Virginia:

Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling.  As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength.  The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points.  Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.

I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada.  Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states.  It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate.  I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point.  GOTV will make a difference, but so will those undecideds — and as I’ve said before, if that many people still haven’t made up their mind to vote Obama, then I expect most of them to take the safe fall-back position of McCain.

The Senate and the House look like a lock for Democrats, however.  I expect to see a 57-43 split in the upper chamber, counting the independent caucusers for the Dems.  In the House, Pelosi will marginally increase her majority to 237-198.  There are just too many open Republican seats in this election, regardless of the narrowing of the generic Congressional balloting.

Win, lose, or draw, however, I’ll be broadcasting election results live at AM 1280 The Patriot tomorrow from 8-11 pm CT.  We’ll have live chat and live video broadcasting during the returns.  Be sure to tune in right here at Hot Air, where we will celebrate the finale of the most remarkable presidential election in my lifetime!


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