Fox/Rasmussen battleground polls: Tightening
posted at 6:15 pm on November 3, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Allahpundit covered the national polling from Fox and Rasmussen in his earlier post, and now a somewhat contradictory set of numbers have come out of the battleground states. The state polls show some hope for McCain yet in the states he needs to win tomorrow. Fox has yet to write its story, so let’s just peruse the toplines ourselves from the data.
- Colorado – Obama leads 51/47, after last week’s 50/46. Within the MOE, but not much movement.
- Florida – McCain lead 50/49, after trailing 51/47 last week. Definitely moving towards McCain.
- Missouri – Dead heat at 49 all, after Obama led 48/47 last week. Movement to McCain.
- North Carolina – McCain 50/49, after being up 49/48 last week.
- Ohio – Tied at 49, after Obama led 49/45 last week. Movement to McCain.
- Virginia – Obama leads 51/47, same as last week.
Interestingly, Fox didn’t poll in Pennsylvania, or the results are not yet ready. In any case, those states with movement show it going to McCain, and he’s no longer trailing anywhere except Colorado and Virginia. Undecideds are going to McCain, and the battlegrounds appear to be firming up red. Of course, these are all states Bush carried in 2004, and to balance possible losses in Colorado and Virginia — still too close to call — McCain will need Pennsylvania.
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Go Mac ! It’s good to know that the battleground states are tightening – let’s hope that people have sanity and a moment of clarity in the privacy of the polling booth – that’s what McCain can count on now -it may be his last best hope.
Living in Chicago, tomorrow is going to be pain in the wrong place for me (Snobama and his sheeple are having a rally in Grant Park since they already “know” that they have won) – I am hoping beyond hope that McCain will pull it off.
Otherwise its going to be an even more painful 4 years……..Egads, show mercy on us !
nagee76 on November 3, 2008 at 8:11 PM
And Ed Rollins, too – He’s clearly been a democrat-shill-in-hiding all these years.
Why don’t these commie pukes just come clean?!?
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 8:11 PM
It’s all about the turnout folks.
So turn out!!
jimbodeano67 on November 3, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Folks, you read it earlier. Pray tonight and Vote tomorrow. God have mercy on us. Go McCain/Cuda!
Sky U Mah on November 3, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Be sure not to forget if the Obama rein of Terror begins we really must stay with our original plan to maintain our anonymity, mask our identities. Even if it means suffering the mockery of others. Being taken for fools, fops, nitwits, even cowards. I know that will be the easy part. The hard part will be not being able to boast about our exploits to the ladies.
PercyB on November 3, 2008 at 8:15 PM
if Mac is to win MN, he needs Obama’s numbers to be down up there. Do you know anyone there? Are they as apprehensive as the folks in PA?
IR-MN on November 3, 2008 at 8:08 PM
From the deepest blue district in the deepest blue city of a deep blue state – the Lefties here are convinced it’s gonna be 538-0. But outstate it’s more interesting. The I94 corridor to St. Cloud should give Bachmann a close win. Look for Walz to stumble, but not lose in SE Minny. But the Range could suprise. It’s dismal up there, the economy is bad and the DFL has not provided. Plus it is very culturally conservative with lots of Catholics. If the college kids in the Cities stay under 65% turnout the there is a slim chance.
But hell, slim chance is all we got anyway…
Bruno Strozek on November 3, 2008 at 8:16 PM
HERE’S WHY MCCAIN WILL WIN:
the polls almost all show obama ahead – from 3-10%.
they are wrong.
1 – these polls all include obama’s 98% black vote.
so there are NO UNDECIDED BLACKS.
2 – the undecided are mostly whites and they will break for mccain – bigtime.
3 – and independents aren’t going to break for obama, either.
4 – also: ASSUME 39% of potential voters are D
and 33% are R
and 28% are I.
polls almost all show obama with only 85% of D.
less than kerry.
and mccain at 95% R.
that means going into the election they are about even in getting their own party members on board!
so obama has to make it to 50% with the remaining undecided I’s, D’s and R’s which are mostly white men who are IN FACT breaking for mccain.
AND KEEP IN MIND THAT MOST PARENTS ARE VOTING FOR MCCAIN, too.
THIS MEANS ALL THE CLOSE CONTESTS BREAK FOR MCCAIN.
and mccain wins.
reliapundit on November 3, 2008 at 8:16 PM
I live in southern Ohio… This is very anecdotal, but McCain signs outnumber Obama signs 2:1. This is an area where Hillary thumped Obama. McCain signs are hard to get from our county party because people are picking them up as quick as they come in.
Another thing to consider here is that there are quite a few union members who could be posting signs to appease their local union bosses but who have no plans of voting for Obama.
Fundamental Fred on November 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Virginians, can Mccain really win your state? I hope so.
Mad Kimchi on November 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Now, I can understand the laughable delusion in other states. But, MN? Really? You do realize that Mpls and St. Paul alone will carry this state for Obama, don’t you? As reality would have it, however, several outlying counties will also be strong Obama. Duluth: Obama. St. Cloud: Obama. Do you think the one state that went for Mondale in ‘84 is going fall for gramps and hockeymom this year? M’kay, yeah, sounds absolutely plausible to me…
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 8:21 PM
To IR-Mn and the gal from the twin cities (sorry, forgot your screen name)I live in St. Louis, County MO but have vacationed (4X a year) in St. Louis, County MN: if those folks up there don’t break for Mc-Cuda, I’ll EAT MY WALLEYE. They won’t admit it, but they will. BTW my other Lab is named Echo, for the Ely (MN)Echo. If you’re from there, you get it. Whatshishossit (Styger???)is a humungus tree hugger, but I think can identify with Todd (Irondog). There are SO many ’60’s holdovers up there, but they WILL vote Mc-Cuda while decrying that O’Biden was robbed. Please tell me I’m wrong? No strike the Please, I dare you to tell me I’m wrong. This is a sea-change moment in our history…all FOR Mc-Cuda. I am soooooo proudly American! Hope to salute you both on the lakes around Ely!
Now, let’s flippin’ roll.
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 8:22 PM
…gophergirl…sorry. I reiterate my post above for you. Take heart!
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 8:23 PM
What part of Southern Ohio? I’m in Washington Court House right now and I must admit that I am a bit surprised by the number of Obama signs here (although there have actually been some people take down their Obama signs and McCain still leads here), but the rest of Central Ohio is looking good for McCain (including my hometown of Marysville aka “the town with the Honda plant”).
I agree about the union members. I don’t think union members will vote for Obama when they are in private, especially with the card check law.
MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Finally! A breath of fresh air on Hot Air.
carbon_footprint on November 3, 2008 at 8:28 PM
oops
/
carbon_footprint on November 3, 2008 at 8:29 PM
You are so incredibly wrong. But have fun believing all that!
The thing is, actual hockey moms don’t appreciate fake, self-annointed-for-political-need ones. As the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning returns will demonstrate, folks here have soundly rejected the Alaskan farce.
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 8:29 PM
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 8:21 PM
They cling to their guns and religion Up North in Minny. The Powers That Be might just shit a brick when the returns come in early Wednesday morning…
Bruno Strozek on November 3, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Well, this is one Virginian voting McCain.
I know I’m only one, but one among many.
jimbodeano67 on November 3, 2008 at 8:33 PM
Not far from Portsmouth. There are more Obama signs than I thought there would be, but in comparison, there are fewer Obama signs than there were Kerry signs– as I recall.
Fundamental Fred on November 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
I repeat NDR: Get the back under thy bridge, post-haste! And, btw, take your O’bambi doll with you!
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Hot Air needs an Obamatron detector that zaps as they enter.
jimbodeano67 on November 3, 2008 at 8:36 PM
Yowzers, we got a polysci genius on our hands here! Them pinko poll takers don’t know nothin ’bout us voters!
Damn, boy, whatchyou doin on this interweb site when you oughtta be on the TV with one of them fancy touch-screen multi-clour electoral maps ’splainin to the zombies how maverick’s gonna do it after all?!?!
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
ZAP!!
jimbodeano67 on November 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
I see we have a winner…
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:41 PM
LOL. They will be shitting cement blocks, Bruno.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM
Ech, Obama, I hardly knew ya (before you were blown into oblivion!
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM
I’ve been saying for a while that McCain will win Ohio. Pretty much all of the suburbs in Columbus are going for McCain and I don’t see West Central or Southwestern Ohioans going for Obama with Wright Patterson Air Force Base being in Dayton. With the coal issue, I could easily see Southeastern Ohio going for McCain as well (and it’s usually pretty Democratic).
MobileVideoEngineer on November 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM
Fundamental Fred on November 3, 2008 at 8:43 PM
When it comes to the ladies, sir, the hard part has never been a problem. *bows courteously*
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:43 PM
Gosh, yeah, I’m scared to death of that massive rural nutjob vote. That’s just gonna be a goddamned tidal wave, isn’t it?
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Manly, you nasty dog. Charming the ladies as usual.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Reliapundit: I don’t know how to C&P to show its a cut and paste, so I will just say, “Ditto”
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 8:45 PM
First post. I’m from Cali, so we know how that’s going, but I’ll vote for McCain and try to make sure this one idiot doesn’t become Mayor. Yes, I know him personally.
Question: Does anyone with knowledge of NC think Dole’s troubles will drag down McCain? Or will she survive?
Shotgun Messiah on November 3, 2008 at 8:46 PM
You are going to be very, very depressed on the night of November 4. I’m delighted, of course.
“There is no sweeter victory than that achieved over an adversary who was certain he would win.” – ManlyRash
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:47 PM
*winks* You know it, Sweet Thang.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Actually….yes.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Who is this new troll we have amongst us?
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:48 PM
Manly, I wanted to have Sarah’s puppies, but can I have your’s too? (It would be a CHOICE I’d be willing to make, wink, wink).
So (OT)you pro-choicers betta respect my choice too!
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 8:49 PM
Not sure, Hornet, but at some point we are going to have to tell it to rub the lotion all over itself or it will get the hose.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:49 PM
You guys need to get a chatroom and soon.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
Manly, you say you “know”. If you didnt “know” would you tell us? Or when you say you “know” is it to keep our or your hopes high?
Robb on November 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
I love dogs, Chewy, but sorry…I don’t love dogs.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:50 PM
You need to get a girlfriend toot sweet, Brad.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Chewy: we’ve got something things in common. I lived in SW STL for a couple of years. I loved running around Forest Park. Here’s hoping that South County rejects Obama. I just don’t know about the Range we’ll see. Missourah is going to be close too!
NewDayRising: please leave your petulance at the door. The owners allows DailyKos people to comment, but don’t be a whiny b*tch. As for MN, if the SUSA number is correct and Mac is down by 3, Obama should be worried. If you were actually from this state, you would know that the 4th and 5th CDs are not enough to carry a democrat statewide.
There hasn’t been a dem governor here since Perpich. A dem in MN needs blowout margins in the 4th and 5th and the Range, while not getting hit hard elsewhere. Period. Obama and Mac will split the 3rd. And Mac will win the 1st, 2nd, 6th and 7th CDs (by varying margins). The eighth is a big question. The people on the Range are not whiny DailyKos dems: they are pro-life, pro-gun fiscally liberal Catholics. The question is will they vote their wallet or vote their backgrounds. Who knows?
IR-MN on November 3, 2008 at 8:51 PM
Gosh, yeah, I’m scared to death of that massive rural nutjob vote. That’s just gonna be a goddamned tidal wave, isn’t it?
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
Nice to see our New Socialist Overlords think so highly of the working man.
Bruno Strozek on November 3, 2008 at 8:51 PM
The door was open and quite a few came in. I guess Kos was closed for a cleaning today.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM
I know. And that is all you need to know. Know what I mean?
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM
Thanks for the offer but I’m perfectly happy with my wife.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 8:52 PM
You’re just jealous because the ladies love me and when they see your name they go eeeewwwwwwwwwwww.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM
Not offering. Do you and Roger Waters share the same wife? You know that’s illegal….
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:53 PM
I am going to flip a quarter and I know it will come up heads. *flip* Yep came up heads.
Pretty much the same thing you are saying.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 8:54 PM
Ain’t gonna happen, Bruno. Too many people see these Stalinists for what they are. Obama is toast tomorrow.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:54 PM
Good thing it came up heads, huh?
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM
I “just know” you are offering.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM
Actually I don’t know what you mean. And worse than that, I dont know what you know and its driving me crazy. Cause I wanna know too!
Robb on November 3, 2008 at 8:55 PM
That or they rid of those whom THEY consider to be obnoxious trolls. Yikes.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:56 PM
I knew it would. :-)
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Like I “just know” you are a total a$$.
mccain/PALIN 08
Send Barack’s auntie home….
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:57 PM
Hi Robb. It is called faith. We Christians liken it to evidence of things unseen. I have had it as well. For many months now. Thing is, I am feeling the first bits of anxiety today. However, if our country does choose to elect this socialist loser, I have faith that God is in control.
carbon_footprint on November 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM
heh
Don’t post very often but am loving the Manly tonight.
I believe. There are a lot of people praying tonight and voting tomorrow.
I’m in TX—did my part for the popular vote already.
coastiehooligan on November 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM
I guess the quarter landed on heads again. ‘Cause you sure as hell ain’t getting tails.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:58 PM
Eeewwww! KosKid rejects.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 8:59 PM
What part of coast? Spent many a spring break in Corpus/Port A.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:00 PM
You are a good man, hooligan. I don’t care what the soccer officials say about you.
God bless you and keep the faith. Mac will win tomorrw but you have to do your part. Talk to friends and family. Get out that vote.
Tomorrow we bring this shit HOME.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:00 PM
It is a match for your unusually large one – two of your bumperstickers could fit side by side.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 9:00 PM
carbon,
reason I ask is cause i’m not really of faith. but i am a believer in things unseen. make sense? And Manly’s posts have me wondering if there is something out there that I need to know..
Robb on November 3, 2008 at 9:01 PM
Scary, isn’t it? I’ve been told they are even immune to Troll-B-Gone – which really sucks, because I picked up a few cans at the Hot Air Mart the other day.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM
there you go worrying about my tail again – first you want my member on a table for your inspection – now it is my tail.. dude!
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM
Hardy, Har, Har, Har…you know, I feel really sorry for your wife.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:02 PM
With profuse apologies to our friends in PA, my background is a little different, so I’m offering up this:
Mebbe corny, but, what the heck… anything to rally the folks.
creekspecter on November 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM
Manly is in the know. That’s all you need to know.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM
“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.” – Hamlet, Act I, Scene 5
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Her name is ManlyRash – you have been flirting with her for weeks now.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 9:04 PM
Wasn’t your tail I was referencing, Bradley. :-)
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM
Flirting, no. Healthy respect as fellow conservatives, yes. You are hereby sentenced to rub medicated cream on his rash.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM
I understand. Manly has a gift of being faithful and persistent in spreading that faith. I also get the feeling that McCain has this faith. He looks so relaxed and positive that he is going to win. It gives me hope. As I have said, I am feeling some anxiety but I guess that is normal since we have been bombarded with polls, etc. Keep the faith.
carbon_footprint on November 3, 2008 at 9:06 PM
IR-MN: South county (STl county, MO) will probably never go red because it is Gebhardt territory, unfortunately. I live in West County and we are soo, soo red here though. I wish you best of luck and I do, do think that the IR and BWCAW are gettable for Mc-Cuda.Sorry…Translation: Iron Range, Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness) Would love to have seen Sarah campaign up around the Wellstone Memorial (BTW: there really IS one for y’all that don’t know that part of our glorious, wonderful country.)
Also, Manly, sorry you don’t “swing” canine, another hope dashed! (We can have fun while we wax these Dems and have them with their tails between their legs running back to Michelle!)
Chewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM
Holy Moley….I’m a WOMAN? That sure as hell explains the seven-and-a-half inch long clitoris.
Thanks, Brad! You are a sweetheart.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:07 PM
Eeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM
Dude
carbon_footprint on November 3, 2008 at 9:08 PM
Better break the news to your wife and those dead squirrels. They were taken down by a woman…..dun dun duuuuunn!
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:09 PM
Stating the obvious,
We can only win if it is a record Repub turnout. Afraid that this site is preaching to the choir of one of many websites on the net. The rest of the world does not know of us. And they apparently are running this weird ass world.
Robb on November 3, 2008 at 9:09 PM
HornetSting:
“coastie” in my nic refers to being a veteran of the USCG
and…Corpus is nice…..but my family lives up north
ManlyRash:
I’m glad you think I’m a good man but I gotta tell ya I’m an even better woman (or so my hubby says)! My hubby is the Coastie.
Gee, what is it with you and the ladies? Drew me out of the shadows, you did. God bless you. Made my calls today…found out there are lots of hispanics in TX that love them some Hillary—good people and they are voting for Mac.
coastiehooligan on November 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM
Thanks but no. I’d rather pound my nether regions with a meat tenderizer.
You measure? need to work on that self esteem my distinguished commenter.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM
But Robb, did you ever realize there was so many of us out here? It is good to be amongst friends. Grab a friend and go vote.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:10 PM
A well hung woman no less. This is really gonna confuse my wife. Dun du dun dun duuuuuuuuuun…
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM
Bradky is making me retch. Can we talk about something else, like how McCain and Palin are going to wipe the floor with Obama, and Joe the Idiot tomorrow.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:11 PM
It’s the rash.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:12 PM
Hornet,
Will do… and have done. Just hoping. Wish there was a psychic amongst us. But I guess that would be the easy way out.
Robb on November 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
A manly man never has to do his own measuring…his adoring fans do that for him. Thus can I recite the words of King Lear (not leer): “Aye…every inch a king.”
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
reliapundit:
My God I DO hope u are right in your assessment
GOD HELP US ALL if u are not!!
stogiefan1953 on November 3, 2008 at 9:13 PM
Manly has been preaching it for weeks. Gotta have faith. You did your part. I got 3 democrats to vote for McCain…grab a friend or two and educate them.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
My dear Bradley I can spend the rest of the evening happily pwning you in delightful persiflage, but I have voters to inspire on other threads.
Do keep hitting on Hornet, though. You may even get her to vomit before midnight.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 9:15 PM
Too late. I’m leaving.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 9:17 PM
You are the only one “hitting on” anyone. One good insult deserves another old sport. sorry you and Hornet are so uh well uh victimized.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Alright, chief…
With great amumesment over the past couple of weeks I’ve read your dutiful regurgitation of rushbo/hannity talking points. I’ve snickered, giggled and guffawed at your repeated commands to believe your noble proclamation of an easy McCain victory. Well, Hot Air has generously permitted me the privilege to partake in the always-wistful conversation that traspires herein. Privilege, indeed. So, now the moment is here. I request of you – no, I implore you… How exactly does John McCain win this election? What is his electoral path? Of course, I’m not holding my breath for anything more than your tired “it’s just something I know” song and dance.
Can you at least concede that a McCain victory requires his winning PA? Can you see that Obama has several paths to 270+ EV? Can you comment on today’s poll of PA by the REPUBLICAN polling firm Strategic Vision showing Obama up by 7 points there? Perhaps youd like to disclose for us which Kerry states McCain is going to flip, considering that the Bush states of CO, NV, IA and NM have all flipped for Obama.
What do you say, big guy, care to enlighten me? Please, ManlyRash, a hopeless moonbat like me needs your wisdom, your insight… your holy manliness!
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 9:24 PM
He ain’t going to answer — too busy hopin those polls change
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 9:29 PM
newday
risingfalling into the sea: It’s called: F.A.I.T.HChewy the Lab on November 3, 2008 at 9:33 PM
The S-USA poll commissioned by the Hubbard goons? The S-USA poll that showed McCain up a month ago? You mean that solid poll?
Thanks, but I’ll go ahead and trust Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, Research 2000 and Quinnipiac.
NewDayRising on November 3, 2008 at 9:36 PM
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