Final Fox News poll: Obama 50, McCain 43
posted at 4:49 pm on November 3, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Their last one went 47/44 but that was based on an oddball sample of 41 percent Democrats and 39 percent Republicans. This one’s back to 42 percent Dem and 36 percent GOP. Hence the spread.
The whole election in one table:
Iraq now ranks lower than taxes. Speaking of which, here’s what Maverick’s gotten from weeks’ worth of hammering The One with talking points about Joe the Plumber and redistribution. The columns represent Obama and McCain, respectively. The question: Which candidate do you trust more to handle the issue?
I don’t know how to explain the trend since September except to guess that the “socialism” gambit backfired by focusing attention on Obama’s tax plan and his ever-shifting promise of cuts for the middle class. Another question, possibly germane to this one, asked if Obama’s views are too liberal or about right. Last week’s breakdown: 43/50. This week’s: 40/53. Whether that’s an artifact of the sample or proof that my read on the taxes question is right, I don’t know.
Now for a little good news:
No enthusiasm gap so far, although the greater absolute number of Democrats means Obama’s banked more votes. Hopefully McCain makes it up among undecideds, most of whom probably aren’t joining the cult now if they haven’t joined already.
Finally, this:
In hindsight, I wonder why Team Maverick didn’t follow the Obama playbook and roll Palin out as a post-partisan candidate instead of as the hero of the base. Her social con credentials and Jacksonian appeal are impeccable; she could have gone out there, stumped to McCain’s left, and the grassroots wouldn’t have loved her an iota less. The One relies on that same phenomenon among the left to give him cover when he goes around praising the Second Amendment, calling for more troops in Afghanistan, and opposing gay marriage: Centrists eat it up and the left looks the other way because, when push comes to shove, they don’t really believe he’s sincere. Conceivably, the McCain camp could have packaged Palin similarly, relying on the fact that she’s worked with Democrats in Alaska to make bipartisanship her core talking point instead of the daily attacks on Obama. It would have disarmed the media (to some extent) and helped with independents, women included/especially. What might have been.
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I am tomorrow! Wish me luck for “short” waiting lines.
I have agreed with you all along, Manly, but haven’t told you. Thanks for distributing your optimism. There will be NO redistribution of your wealth!!
Brat on November 3, 2008 at 5:48 PM
This same Fox poll says Obama leads among those who already voted by only one point: 48%-47%.
Kim Priestap on November 3, 2008 at 5:51 PM
If nothing in life is worth dying for, when did this begin–just in the face of this enemy? Or should Moses have told the children of Israel to live in slavery under the pharaohs? Should Christ have refused the cross? Should the patriots at Concord Bridge have thrown down their guns and refused to fire the shot heard ’round the world? The martyrs of history were not fools, and our honored dead who gave their lives to stop the advance of the Nazis didn’t die in vain. Where, then, is the road to peace? Well, it’s a simple answer after all.
You and I have the courage to say to our enemies, “There is a price we will not pay.” There is a point beyond which they must not advance.
Ronald Reagan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXaR4POAQiU
This is a video of hope, and will give you the chills… A must see.. This is the encouragement that we need right now… Awesome
convative on November 3, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Obama always polls higher than his actual numbers. Learned that in the Dem Primaries. I don’t buy it for a second. No way the U.S. elects the most liberal candidate ever.
Hog Wild on November 3, 2008 at 5:51 PM
I have an adopted black brother, and a black/vietnamese sister married to a black man. All three are voting McCain. They are in Washington, so it won’t make a lick of difference except in the popular vote, but blacks are not a monolith.
I don’t trust polls with an 80%+ refuse to participate rate. Obama supporters have no reason to not want to be hip and cool and proud of their messiah.
McCain supporters have been called racist and bigoted and stupid by the MSM, so why answer a poll by CBS OR Fox.
There are a lot of hard feelings and a certain level of crisis either way, but I have a gut, solid feeling it will go to McCain.
PastorJon on November 3, 2008 at 5:51 PM
Manly, don’t get angry with me. I do what I can with a scared hard. I am calling in Nevada for John McCain. And I pray.
clemycali on November 3, 2008 at 5:53 PM
What are the responses like in Nevada?
Republican on November 3, 2008 at 5:54 PM
THE POLLS are bogus. What is wrong with all this obsession with the polls. The Polls were off by 11 percentage points in a tiny, monolithic state like NH.
EVERY SINGLE POLLER had Obama by +8 to +13 in NH during the primaries.
Hillary won by +2.6. That is a HUGE ERROR.
Geochelone on November 3, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Hard to tell right now. I left several phone messages and I found a lot of block numbers. I bet I am not the only one calling. As soon as I have an ideea I am going to report.
That is close. Closer than the polls and we don’t know how they break on state by state.
clemycali on November 3, 2008 at 5:58 PM
I have no wealth to redistribute. But I expect that to change after McCain becomes president. You with me, Brat? Let’s make it happen.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 5:59 PM
When the plls are that close it can only mean that Bambi is behind. He knows this and he is panicked.
Obama will lose tomorrow. Trust Manly.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 6:00 PM
Yeah I hear you… after Nevada, you should do some calls in to CO to help the effort there!
Republican on November 3, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Manly, are you phonebanking?
Republican on November 3, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Amen, Pastor Jon. Praise the Lord and pass the political ammunition. We have an election to win and a Drive-By media to humiliate.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 6:01 PM
Nope.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 6:02 PM
It’s over. Let it go.
Barack Hussein Obama is your new president.
robertnyc212 on November 3, 2008 at 6:03 PM
God bless you.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Hey, on the subject of phone banking – aren’t you supposed to call people who might be undecided? Meaning, stop calling my damn house! I’ve been called about a dozen times in the last 7 days, and I was really hoping that along the way they would figure out that the people at this number were voting red. Seriously, I appreciate the efforts, but call my neighbors. Please.
/I’ve made many personal calls to people I know, unofficially. And yes, my mother is a lost cause.
Anna on November 3, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Not a very supportive thing for a McCain supporter to say, Robert. You are a McCain supporter. right? You do plan to vote for him, yes? Because if not, that would mean you are a…troll. And that would not be a good thing.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Take the same advice you are giving us: GET OUT THERE AND WORK THE VOTE!!!!!! Take an hour and phone bank for McCain. Do what you want all of us to do. Lead.
Republican on November 3, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Where you at? Call the local McCain office and tell them you keep getting repeat calls.
Republican on November 3, 2008 at 6:10 PM
Can someone explain this to me…
On Obama’s grandmother condolence thread…
This Christoph is trying to get seejanemom banned.
????????
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 6:12 PM
Barack Hussein Obama attended the 1995 Million Man March of Lous Farrakhan. Lous Farrakhan, who said that “Hitler was a great man”…. “a very great man”, he said. In fact, when Jewish leaders compared him to Hitler because he kept saying that the Jews deserved a Holocaust, and that the Jews deserved to be exterminated,… when Jewish leaders compared him to Hitler, he took it as a compliment! He said, and I quote, “I like when the Jews compare Farrakhan to Hitler. Hitler was a great man. Hitler was a very great man”. And Lous Farrakhan says that all whites are devils and were created in a test tube by the evil scientist Yacub. This is literally what he teaches. And that tz=hand unlamented Elijah Muhammad is flying a space ship over the United States, it’s called the “Mother Ship”,… and as soon as Allah gives the signal the entire white race is gonna be sicked up into the space ship and be exterminated. This is what he teaches. He calles it the Mother Ship. And this Nazi, phsycotic, dimented, piece of garbage, Louis Farrakhan, has rallies where Barack Hussein Obama attends — honouring Louis Farrakhan. These are the types of rallies Barack Hussein Obama attends. I ask you,… ” This is the individual that all the newspapers that you read or the vast majority, are supporting for President?! This is whom the American people are considering making President of the United States!!” This is insane. If Barack Hussein Obama is elected President, America is finished. I’d like to be optimistic, but if he wins forget about it. You can throw my optimism out the window. I think America is finished.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 6:13 PM
Hey a new member! Missed last registration cycle. Reading all your posts has kept my spirits up. 51 year old christian conservative male. Tried blogging on Obama’s website to change voters but was banned even though I kept it civil. Guess they didn’t like it that I wouldn’t go away.
My wife is an election judge and is very worried about tomorrow so pray we have good news by midnight1
Go McCain/Palin! Please ignore the polls this is possible!
Kevin in Southern Illinois on November 3, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Thanks Manly. I am with you and McCain is going to win. I went through two craniotomies and 18 months of hell in chemo. I had days where, I am ashamed to admit now, that I thought death might be better.
It sounds weak now, I know. What I went through is nothing compared to 5 years as a POW. I know McCain is going to win . I know it as much as I’ve known anything. Granted I’m a product of of the Texas public school system, but what little brain I have left, functions pretty good.
My father was a marine Sgt, in Korea and he told me many times that “cowards never get started and the weak die along the way”. McCain has started and them some. You wait and see. He is the next Potus.
John D on November 3, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Do not beleive ANY Polls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin will be the next President and Vice President of the United States of Amercia!!!!!
Seven Percent Solution on November 3, 2008 at 6:19 PM
( sigh )
AllahP regrets that Sarah palin did not ‘run to the left of McCain’ to pilch votes. That is a stunningly Dumb view, in light of the fact that Palin is MORE conservative
AllahP is one of those who takes the base for granted, probably thinking they’re dimwit rubes who go along with any sort of crap from GOP campiagns
They aren’t; they don’t; and Palin was Absolutely Necessary to jazz up the base.
You should stick to writing paens to the virtues of KP….
Janos Hunyadi on November 3, 2008 at 6:23 PM
Um, this is the same poll which had Kerry beating Bush by two.
Damian G. on November 3, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Welcome aboard, Kevin: if you really were trying to convert O-bots on their site, though, that marks you as either an Amazing Optimist or as Without Brains, as those people have been angry for 8 years and many see themselves as essentially AT WAR with us
Janos Hunyadi on November 3, 2008 at 6:29 PM
You posted this same eeyore crap on another thread. Either become part of the effort to support McCain or stop spamming. Do something productive or don’t post.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 6:31 PM
clemycali and others might be interested in Ace of Spades‘ thread from the 2004 election. I haven’t checked it out yet, but here’s gist of it.
Personally, I don’t need the thread to tell me the polls are cr@p, but I am going to check it out… I’m curious to see how many trolls and astroturfers there were back then.
Y-not on November 3, 2008 at 6:33 PM
I’ve been making phone calls – not on a phone bank, though. And emailing. And talking to neighbors. And rallying support – especially at Hot Air. I suggest you spend less time criticizing me and more time doing something constructive.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 6:34 PM
Yeah, someone went into that thread with a big chip on his/her shoulder.
I didn’t really see anything that outrageous, but perhaps I missed something.
Y-not on November 3, 2008 at 6:36 PM
John D on November 3, 2008 at 6:14 PM
Congratulations Survivor!
kareyk on November 3, 2008 at 6:38 PM
Bwahahahahaha!
Go back to your chanting.
All hail to the Hypnotoad.
Now run along. There’s a good troll.
Y-not on November 3, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Good poll: Ed
Bad poll: AllahPundit
’nuff said.
Sultry Beauty on November 3, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Do what you want all of us to do. Lead. – Republican on November 3, 2008 at 6:09 PM
MR has been busting his ass on HA for a number of weeks rallying the forlorn and pessimistic.
We all have a part to play and he has played his exceptionally well.
Now, go make some calls!
kareyk on November 3, 2008 at 6:40 PM
An Optimist!! What was the worst that could happen. But yeah they are a very angry bunch, hope they are even angrier Wednesday morning when their man is toast!
Kevin in Southern Illinois on November 3, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Are Fox’s battleground state polls out yet? I heard those were to be released at 3.
RightWinged on November 3, 2008 at 6:44 PM
Manly, is an idiot.
Who may be gay.
Hey, heres a hint. If I don’t answer you the first 25 times, what makes you think the next 25 will work? Shmuck.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 6:46 PM
Someone named “Christoph” is leading the charge, with Bradky parroting along. I finally told Christoph to stop whining. I cannot stand it when people go on and on about the death of people they do not know. Like crying about the death of a celebrity. Give me a small break.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 6:46 PM
RightWinged on November 3, 2008 at 6:44 PM
go look at the list of posts- all but PA
kareyk on November 3, 2008 at 6:46 PM
Pipe down, little man.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 6:46 PM
Good one…lol… how long did it take for you to come up with that?
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 6:55 PM
About as long as your attention span.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Another good one. You’re on a role.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 7:03 PM
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 6:55 PM
Go away troll. We don’t want you here.
kareyk on November 3, 2008 at 7:04 PM
Have you voted, Sugar?
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 7:04 PM
After tomorrow the American people will be in the tank as well.
PeteTheFloridian on November 3, 2008 at 7:05 PM
The only tank I will be in tomorrow is a tank of Wild Turkey while I celebrate the demise of the MSM and the Democratic party.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 7:09 PM
So, a thought crossed your mind? Must have been a long and lonely journey. What part of this do you disagree with?
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 7:10 PM
Manly Rash—- I finally was able to sign up here at Hot Air today, and I am so glad to have a chance to thank you. You have kept my spirits up and helped when my eternal optimism was wavering. A million thank you’s!!!
I’m in Chester County, PA… the swing county in this swing state. My gut tells me PA will go for McCain. I could give tons of anecdotal evidence, but as a newbie, I’ll just keep my comments short. I just don’t think Fast Eddie will grease the wheels on this one. If it were Clinton, absolutely… but for the Messiah? No.
rampage on November 3, 2008 at 7:11 PM
Oh apacalyps, you do vex me. Isn’t there a bridge you should under right now. I assume by your asinine remark that you are an Obama supporter. Explains the bitterness.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 7:12 PM
If you think I’m a Barack Hussein Obama supporter then you’re stupider than I first thought. Now, if all you’re going to do is hurl childish insults towards me then don’t waste my time, otherwise answer the question. What part of my apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 6:13 PM post do you disagree with? Here’s a hint: Click the link and read it.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 7:18 PM
The whole thing. You are an a$$. That’s all.
BTW, I think your mom is calling you up from the basement for dinner.
HornetSting on November 3, 2008 at 7:20 PM
I’m sensing that you are less than thrilled with my manly presence. That’s alright. Just make sure to vote for McCain, okay sport? Thanks.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 7:29 PM
Glad to be of help, rampage. Now is the time to be especially brave – in the last 24 hours the trolls and eeyores will be doing everything they can to get you down. Keep a chin up – McCain is going to win. Trust Manly.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 7:32 PM
Good news from North Carolina. I just heard on the local radio station that only 20% of the “newly registered” voters voted in early voting (and we have a long early voting period). The newscasters are shocked!
Tomorrow’s weather in NC? Rainy and cold. I’m telling you, those voters will NOT stand and wait in a voting line.
BUT WE WILL! GET OUT and VOTE!
Semper Paratus
DrStock on November 3, 2008 at 7:36 PM
Virginia Beach. I called a few days ago about that. Eh, I have under 24 hours to go… and the ringer is off. I’m feeling better now. : )
Anna on November 3, 2008 at 7:42 PM
I could care less what you believe. Don’t flatter yourself. You kinda remind me of “PigPen” from the cartoon “Peanuts” with an undiscernable cloud following him wherever he went, cept it’s ignorance that follows you.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Dang, apacalyps. Chill.
DrStock on November 3, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Wow, I always love open registration, but this one:
has been a classless flipside to the kossack slime for a long time.
Psssst: You’re not helping.
SouthernDem on November 3, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Ha, you know, I really do appreciate your enthusiasm. Sincerely. But you better hope to God you’re right about tomorrow. Otherwise your name is mud.
SouthernDem on November 3, 2008 at 7:59 PM
Er, no. You just show up once every few months or so, spout some hateful shit, then everyone tell you to STFU and you crawl away for a couple of months.
So, without further ado, STFU.
And it’s “noob” you idiot.
SouthernDem on November 3, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Very well put.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 8:19 PM
I don’t “hope” the sun will rise tomorrow, SD. I know it will. After this election my name will be gold. Count on it.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:31 PM
I guess you really could care less, because you responded. I think you meant to say that you could NOT care less. But if that were the case, you would not have responded.
Oh well…just remember to vote for John McCain tomorrow.
ManlyRash on November 3, 2008 at 8:34 PM
Because you “just know”. 50/50 chance you will be right. If wrong your name might not be mud but I am quite sure it won’t appear on too many threads.
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 8:36 PM
He means well but Allahpundit has been a complete downer the entire election season. He seizes upon every bogus Rasmussen, CBS poll out there. This is going to be a nail biter and not decided until Wedensday morning. If it is a nail biter then McCain will win.
Hilts on November 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
Actually I meant “every bogus Gallup, CBS, poll out there”.
Hilts on November 3, 2008 at 8:39 PM
AP has been doing this for sometime. Do you want him to be a cheerleader of objective presenter of facts? For all of the polls to be wrong would be unprecedented.
It seems that some of the hotair folks have adopted the Obama theme of hope and change… I hope them polls change soon!
Bradky on November 3, 2008 at 8:42 PM
The youth vote–overhyped
The newly registered voters–overhyped
Obama’s poll numbers–overhyped
This election can be won. Shut out the noise and VOTE.
Semper Paratus
DrStock on November 3, 2008 at 8:44 PM
I’m thinking Obama >330. By 2000hrs EST tomorrow most of you will be crying into your beer. You’ll blame the MSM, you’ll blame ACORN, you’ll claim Obama stole the election. But here’s the truth, most of you in this forum are pretty much intellectually and ideological equal to Joe the Plumber. Meaning you are mouth breathing knuckle dragging idiots. Instead of having the integrity to realize that the problem with conservatism is YOU. You will point fingers, devise various loyalty tests, resulting in many entertaining pogroms and purges, until all that is left is a White Nationalist party. Enjoy your long lonely night in the wilderness! Palin 2012!
phatman on November 3, 2008 at 8:47 PM
Spoken like a delusional Stalinist troll.
Hilts on November 3, 2008 at 9:03 PM
You are so stupid. You just post comments to amuse yourself or something because you don’t even pay attention to what is being said or who says it. I support McCain/Palin you imbecile. As soon as I discovered that she was a real Christian, pro-Israel, and a true Conservative, I’ve supported her and McCain/Palin. Read here. I oppose Barack Hussein Obama — which means I don’t want him to win. I just posted Obama attended the 1995 Million Man March of Lous Farrakhan. Lous Farrakhan, who said that “Hitler was a great man — a very great man” he said. That Nazi, phsycotic, dimented, piece of garbage, Louis Farrakhan, has rallies where Barack Hussein Obama attends honouring Louis Farrakhan. I just pointed that out. These are the types of rallies Barack Hussein Obama attends. Now you claim to be supporting John McCain so let me ask you…. what is it that I’ve said that you disagree with? Now really, I don’t care what you think. I’m just curious what is going through your mind.
apacalyps on November 3, 2008 at 9:05 PM
The great Karl Rove has Obama winning by a huge EC margin. It’s done then since Bush’s guru has spoken.
Birdseye on November 3, 2008 at 9:14 PM
Gee why even have the formality of an election tomorrow, maybe we can have a coronation. This is going to make the Democratic defeat even sweeter.
Btw it is the Left that gave “the great Karl Rove” his overblown reputaion for being a great political strategist.
Hilts on November 3, 2008 at 9:20 PM
I really don’t understand why any of you respond to these trolls…they are trying to disrupt the thread and cast doubt. You are wasting you time with these “concerned Americans”. Served my country for 20 years in the Air Force and still am. All these trolls would piss themselves and cry if they faced the things that we combat veterans have.
McCain/Palin….done deal!
tank_killer69 on November 3, 2008 at 9:48 PM
You couldn’t carry my rucksack you chair force pussy. Here’s A Chair Force Story for you ersatz patriots. In Desert Storm an Air Force detachment showed up in Suadi Arabia and decided the ‘field’ didn’t meet their high standards for lodging. But damned if their CMSgt didn’t run it up the Air Force leadership and before you know it they are sitting out desert Storm lodged in a 4 star Saudi hotel. True! I’m sure they didn’t complain when they pinned on the Saudi ribbon or Liberation of Kuwait medal.
phatman on November 3, 2008 at 10:33 PM
We have McCain running better than the polls, but he might be too much down to pull it off.
orfannkyl on November 3, 2008 at 11:12 PM
You won’t be around long you foolish little troll…you guys always talk so brave behind a computer keyboard…but get you out of your aunt’s cellar, into the real world, and you sit in a corner and shiver.
Here is your “money” quote:
You see you liberals only think you have the intellect, and you think we are the racists…well here is one for you.
Democrats, gave birth to the KKK: Democrats control and have for decades every major inner city school district, How are you doing with those schools? What’s your drop out rate of minorities, not doing them much good are you? You have taken the “blacks” under your wing, have any problem with fatherless families? See your history of taking care and bringing up the minorities isn’t so strong is it?
Oh but look, under Reagan the largest increase in minority owned business in the U.S., under Bush the first time college graduated blacks have equal pay to the whites…well who is the racist, the party that brings them wealth, or the party that feeds them welfare…
right2bright on November 4, 2008 at 12:05 AM
And look, he knows how to google and use words to try and convince us he was an army type guy…yep, he served in the armed forces with code pink…
right2bright on November 4, 2008 at 12:07 AM
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