Could McCain win Minnesota?
posted at 7:04 am on November 3, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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This morning, one of the first e-mails I opened was from the McCain campaign, claiming that the presidential race in my state had pulled into a dead heat. Sure, I thought — Minnesota barely has Norm Coleman ahead of Al Freakin’ Franken. Obama should be up 15 here under those circumstances, and in fact the MinnPoll has Obama ahead by 11. Survey USA says it’s a margin-of-error race, though, and says Obama’s tripping up Franken:
60 hours until votes are counted in Minnesota, Barack Obama’s advantage over John McCain is back inside the margin of sampling error, according to SurveyUSA’s final look at one of 2008’s most interesting states. Obama 49%, McCain 46%, in interviewing underwritten by KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth and KAAL-TV Rochester, 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Obama led by 6 two weeks ago, now by 3. The late break to the GOP is occurring among men and seniors.
That’s a shock to me. During the summer, I had thought that McCain could carry Minnesota if he picked Tim Pawlenty as his running mate, and had less chance with Sarah Palin. This state has not voted Republican in a national election since Nixon ran against George McGovern in 1972, and Bush lost to Kerry by 3.5% in 2004, when we thought the GOP might have a shot at the Land o’ Lakes.
And rather than helping Franken, Obama seems to be making the DFL Senate candidate’s plight worse:
For each point McCain gains, the better it looks for Republican Norm Coleman’s US Senate re-election bid. In 4 pre-election tracking polls, SurveyUSA has never shown Franken ahead. Other pollsters have. The contest is close, fiercely fought, and Franken may in fact win. But in SurveyUSA’s final numbers, it’s Coleman 44%, Franken 39%. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, though down from 19% a month ago to 16% today, is a true spoiler. Barkley’s supporters are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans, and more likely to be pro-choice than pro-life. If Barkley’s supporters turn-out to vote but at the last instant turn-away from Barkley, Franken may out-perform these numbers.
Barkley’s bid has been Coleman’s saving grace in a year that was supposed to be tough on Republican incumbents. Franken is truly an execrable candidate and a disgrace as a potential representative, and Barkley gives those hostile to Coleman a haven for their vote. Had the DFL nominated a respectable opponent — say, Michael Cerisi or even Priscilla Lord Faris — this race might look very different and Barkley would likely be an afterthought in polling. Barkley has 16% despite running a grand total of one television ad this season.
The internals on the presidential race are very interesting. McCain leads among men, seniors, and 35-49. Obama leads among women, youth, and middle-aged voters. Obama inexplicably gets 23% of the pro-life vote in Minnesota, and perhaps that’s one place where the McCain campaign can work to swing the last few votes from Obama to McCain. In a state where independents really matter, McCain has a five-point edge.
If McCain wins Minnesota, that puts a major dent in Obama’s presidential aspirations. No one had Minnesota in the red column, and if the momentum carries McCain across the finish line here, it may do the same in other battleground states that Obama — and the media — expected to see finish blue.
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Hasn’t SurveyUSA been very Obama-friendly this cycle? Wow, this really came out of nowhere.
Dudley Smith on November 3, 2008 at 7:12 AM
McCain is alive and kicking here–anything can and will happen if we choose to make it happen. I know this is cliched, but it bears repeating: It’s not the pollsters or the pundits or the media who will elect the next president, it is US. Tomorrow WE will be the ones who speak.
Matt Helm on November 3, 2008 at 7:14 AM
Can you say Bradley effect?
grapeknutz on November 3, 2008 at 7:17 AM
McCain can win anything, mainly because of McCain’s one most excellent quality: He is not Barack Obama.
misslizzi on November 3, 2008 at 7:17 AM
From Survey USA on Ohio:
Why the big difference between likely voters and early voters?
RedWinged Blackbird on November 3, 2008 at 7:20 AM
Ed, thanks for the early update. This is great news to start Monday morning with! I firmly believe (and history shows) there’s no way over 50% of American people are going to vote for Obama. Go Golden Gophers, bring us a victory in Minnesota! McCain/Palin ‘08!
PatMac on November 3, 2008 at 7:24 AM
Mitt Romney was just on Fox and named numerous other states they could win including Colorado and New Mexico.
Fires1 on November 3, 2008 at 7:25 AM
Much will be forgiven if Coleman wins. I just want to see Franken cry home and then write a book about how evil and stupid everyone is.
Grafted on November 3, 2008 at 7:27 AM
Remember people–the Obamaistas are going to attempt to use off the wall exit poll numbers to attempt to discourage and dispirit us and to suppress turnout–it’s all psychological mindgames. Keep your focus and get out and vote. Don’t worry about the exit polls–I don’t recall them being right yet for a single election.
We can…will…and must win this! But we can only win if we keep our eye on the ball.
Matt Helm on November 3, 2008 at 7:28 AM
In truth, Ohio had only a short period for early voting–something like a week. It’s not like other states where there’s a continual period of voting right up to Election Day. I think Obama’s campaign just mobilized better, but the absolute numbers weren’t that large, much like saying Obama’s up in Ohio 2 to 1, because two of the three early voters went his way. I may be wrong, but I don’t think so.
BuckeyeSam on November 3, 2008 at 7:28 AM
If MN is in play OH, NC, FL are not they go to McCain. Means Pa is really in play also and would most likely put VA out of reach for Obama.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 7:28 AM
In Cuyahoga County, every single voter was sent a postcard encouraging them to vote early by mail. I did. But so did a ton of other people, and Cuyahoga County is heavily Democrat. And Obama was running 18 different kinds of ads encouraging his supporters to vote early.
My guess is that Survey USA is an outlier. This is going to be an awful electoral drubbing. I am not watching election returns tomorrow night — I’m instead going to watch a few episodes of Season 4 of 24 and watch Jack Bauer torture terrorists. That’ll make me feel better.
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 7:30 AM
I’m here. Put your head down and vote if you haven’t. I don’t trust the media, and I have to see this till I believe it. Just because you have all the blacks and a bunch of loud Bush-haters doesn’t get you over the goalline.
BuckeyeSam on November 3, 2008 at 7:34 AM
Nausea inducing story of the morning: Flipped to Morning Joe before leaving for work in 10 minutes (Thank-God I’m going!) and heard Mike Barnacle say this:
“You know, with all the hundreds or thousands of hours of this campaign, one thing has not been told and I hope it will. We will finally be able to tell the true inspirational story of Barack Obama.”
He then began to tell a tale of a supposed white cab driver in NYC listening to a Martin Luther-King “I Have A Dream” CD in his cab.
Wretch! Joe Scarborough was also less than moved.
Marcus on November 3, 2008 at 7:37 AM
Obama has made a fatal miscalculation: He has ignored and treated with disdain this nation’s rural and working-class population and he will pay the price. The people he derides and disdains are not fools. They will not be taken in by his platitudes or the media’s lies. And they will vote.
Matt Helm on November 3, 2008 at 7:39 AM
If there weren’t vote fraud happening in Wisconsin, since the government “accountability” board (what an oxymoronic title) refuses to look into, McCain could win here too.
Haunchie on November 3, 2008 at 7:40 AM
I think I’m about to have a movement. :O
Excuse me, I have to go take an Obama.
Matt Helm on November 3, 2008 at 7:40 AM
could somebody explain to me why certain states have early voting.
jpsc1 on November 3, 2008 at 7:41 AM
I have been working within a congressional campaign in Louisiana doing a lot of door to door work talking with voters.
My experience tells me that even in this area the polls are wildly off. In these “swing neighborhoods” targeted by the campaign, the GOP candidate wins by an unbelievable margin. The registered voters in all of these despite education or value of home is close to 45/45/10 Dem/GOP/Other. The only “stronghold” were the neighborhoods near a university populated by lots of academics and more Obama signs than and more the Dem congressional candidate’s than ours. Here the spread is much lower only 3:1 for the GOP staight down the line, except for senate where it tilts slightly Dem way. Still 1:1 ratio.
Another thing over the last week is that middle aged women with children and Dem yards signs are whispering that they are voting GOP.
One thing that I can tell you is that a full 50% of under 40 y/o academics with Obama yards signs either yell, curse or spit at me.
Kermit on November 3, 2008 at 7:41 AM
Remember, you saw it here first… :-)
If the backlash I’m hearing about in Wayne County regarding Detroit’s jail-bound ex-mayor is correct the rest of the outlying counties in Michigan just might push McCain over the top by a narrow margin.
Gun owners and 2nd Amendment advocates in Michigan are going to be voting in force tomorrow. Believe it. Even the non-gun owners I have talked to are leaning that way.
Watch how Macomb County goes tomorrow. They are fed up with Detroit and Lansing and are a real indicator of how the southeastern part of the Lower Peninsula is going to shake out.
If Michigan and Minnesota were both to go McCain/Palin then all Obama is going to be seeing is their dust. Going to be an interesting day.
Yoop on November 3, 2008 at 7:42 AM
Thank the Democrats–and especially thank ACORN–it’s mostly their doing. Early voting all sounds nice and reasonable and convenient, but it’s really a bad idea. Something can always come up a the last moment and once you’ve voted–that’s it–no mulligans.
It’s a nice way to create the illusion of an avalanche though…
Matt Helm on November 3, 2008 at 7:43 AM
I approve of this post.
Typhonsentra on November 3, 2008 at 7:44 AM
Makes sense. If the urbanites are more inclined to vote early to avoid crowds, traffic, etc., then a lot of the early voting will go to Obama.
RedWinged Blackbird on November 3, 2008 at 7:45 AM
I really don’t think McCain’s going to win Minnesota, but Godspeed.
I think it’ll be decided in Pennsylvania. (Yes, other states, but I think whoever takes PA takes all.)
Christoph on November 3, 2008 at 7:45 AM
The other thing that is happening the more we tie the Dem candidates with Obama the faster their numbers drop in the polls.
Kermit on November 3, 2008 at 7:45 AM
In a great many areas, the early voting sites are in population centers and a lot of older people take advantage of this.
Kermit on November 3, 2008 at 7:46 AM
It’s an interesting scenario, but I seriously doubt it’ll happen. What this does show us is that the sentiment against Obama is growing and gaining momentum. At this rate of change, if he gets elected he’ll be universally despised before he even takes office. No mean feat, that.
flipflop on November 3, 2008 at 7:48 AM
Birdseye on November 2, 2008 at 10:18
jpsc1 on November 3, 2008 at 7:49 AM
I’m sorry, but I’m from Minnesota and a conservative, and if McCain wins Minnesota, giant flaming monkeys will come flying out of my butt…
It won’t happen….
Dr. Gecko on November 3, 2008 at 7:53 AM
Yup…and I wonder how many people today are saying “Crap! I want to take back my vote!” If they’re not saying it today, they will be soon enough.
flipflop on November 3, 2008 at 7:54 AM
need more coffee.
jpsc1 on November 3, 2008 at 7:54 AM
Dude…Minnesota? Come on now
lodge on November 3, 2008 at 7:59 AM
If McCain wins Minnesota you better post video of that ;)
aikidoka on November 3, 2008 at 8:02 AM
Bradley effect? My a**. Try, Obama is a flaming communist who can’t even hide it any more. Try this quote on for size:
“The ill wind of opportunism is falling, the righteous wind of socialism is on the rise.” Mao Zedong
He literally copied the quote.
Mommypundit on November 3, 2008 at 8:06 AM
PPP has an Ohio poll that says there is significant movement to McCain by Whites and Independents. I would assume this is happenint in PA, but the same pollster says it’s not. I trust my gut and say it IS happening in PA, western VA, and now Minnesota. (Let’s not forget Michigan, the home of Reagan democrats).
SouthernGent on November 3, 2008 at 8:10 AM
Is MN a coal state, Ed?
If so, it’s over for Obama there.
newton on November 3, 2008 at 8:10 AM
The Obama machine has been out in force for the early vote here in Toledo.
I think I will buy a small bottle of Maker’s Mark for tomorrow night. Either to celebrate or drown my sorrows. I just hope that Huey Long II isn’t elected tomorrow.
And I always figured that Gov. Palin’s accent would play well in Minnesota.
rbj on November 3, 2008 at 8:20 AM
I’m thinking that, too. We’ll be at the Veterans for McCain Pensacola Hdqtrs watching and, if we loose PA by a LOT, I think the night is over. If it’s a squeaker or even (PLEASE God!!!) WIN, I’ll be staying there with a lampshade on my head.
Only if they can get the word out</eM. in the 24 hours left,unfortunately.
tree hugging sister on November 3, 2008 at 8:22 AM
think about this. Obama has choosen to campaign in FL, NC and VA today.
He is not going to Pa, OH. Over the weekend he went to the west. CO, NV etc.
Palin is going to iowa, mcCain is going to NH, PA, OH seven states in total.
Obama has the biggest challange. If not for the polls most people would be placing Obama has the underdog. Not only does Obama have to gain at least a couple red states he has to hold all of the blue states. McCain simply must hold onto the red states of 2004 to win.
However you have the polls. so the entire reason people thing this is Obama’s to lose is the polls. the polls have been all over the place this year which means that one is probably right but the others are wrong therefore if all or nearly all are wrong the RCP avg is worthless and should not be used.
the only other thing you have to go on is where the canidates are caqmpaigning. Obama is in three red states. He is trying to steal at least one, if he gets 2 he stands a good chance of winning. McCain is in 7 states. Why would McCain spread himself out in 7 states today? Because he has more ave to take blue states. PA, NH, Maine.
Obama has given up on PA, Oh and is hoping that he can get Va, NC, and/or FL and soem of the red west states like Iowa, CO, NM, and NV. If he can pull in VA and lose PA he may be able to win it.
McCain is in the drivers seat and Obama needs to upset some states to win.
Forget the pulls and study the people
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:22 AM
Statewide the numbers for early voters was small. And Cuyahoga county is a world unto itself. It always goes Democrat. In the Southern part of the state and the rural areas I think you’ll see something entirely different. I’m also wondering if Joe the Plumber and Sarah Palin won’t have an unspoken effect on the blue collar voters in the northwestern and southeastern areas of the state. We can hope. Don’t forget the polls had Kerry ahead right up until the close.
Deanna on November 3, 2008 at 8:24 AM
MN victory would be gloriously glorious
gatorboy on November 3, 2008 at 8:27 AM
There is no “Bradley effect”…my one man campaign is not getting through to you guys who have been indoctrinated by the left media.
This is the effect: When Mayor Bradley ran for Gov. of CA, he ran a great campaign, L.A. of about 4 million loved him. However as the race grew tighter, they saw how liberal he was (sound familiar?) and how much his welfare state would cost. He was arrogant, condescending, and he used the race card. But his liberal policies were what was driving people away, his appointments started being vetted and they were his “cronies” from the strict liberal and union platform (sound familiar?).
The people began to shift a week or two before the election, and really shifted the weekend before (sound familiar?).
The LAT, and the dems created the “Bradley effect” to explain the migration away from Bradley so they did not have to say the policies were wrong, of course now the voters were racists and wrong (sound familiar?).
The Bradley effect is this: People don’t like extreme liberal, partisan politics, and they vote against it.
right2bright on November 3, 2008 at 8:28 AM
Unfortunately, except for the TIPP poll, the polls don’t even show the race as close. The RCP Average is about 7%. John McCain is going to have to run the table of ‘battleground’ states to pull off an upset victory. How likely is that?
It is possible that all the polls are wrong, but is it likely? Obambi is riding a tide of willful ignorance, youthful enthusiasm, and herd behavior. It is possible that if we had a better candidate, one willing to force Obambi’s Marxist, anti-Semitic, racist, anti-Constitution ideology into the forefront of national consciousness, the American people would recoil in disgust.
But instead we have a fawning national media, a ‘gentlemanly’ candidate unwilling to do mortal battle, and an electorate perfectly happy to pull the lever for this ‘nice’ young man, so calm, collected, and well-spoken—who also, they think, will by his very election make amends for all the injustice of slavery.
Remember, we now have two or three generations of Americans who have been taught by left-wing teachers in the public schools that American history is nothing but an evil litany of oppression, murder, and slaving. Voting for Obambi will make it all better.
Don’t think more than 50% of the people believe such tripe? Ask your kids.
Here in Massachusetts the Republican party is essentially dead (despite a few Republican governors), and my vote for McCain will avail not. But I’ll cast it anyway, and despite the dire prospect for Tuesday nationwide, I’ll urge you to do so as well. Maybe the Pollyannas on this board who are clinging to every thread of hope will turn out to be right after all.
MrLynn on November 3, 2008 at 8:28 AM
A thing about NC thatmost people do not know. It is a red state in the national elections but in the state and local elections it is a blue state. The demcrates have always outnumbered the reps in NC. so when you see the early voting numbers of 50% dems voting and 30% of rep voting. that is how people are registered. when NC went for Bush it was 50% of dems voting and 30% reps and 20% ind. We have a dem gov, a dem control house and senate. The people vote red in national elections and blue in local elections for some reason.
So that 50% of dems voting early? there are a lot of McCain votes in that 50%. that 30% of rep voting is ALL Mccain votes. Therefore the race is very very close. The black vote has turned out in record numbers for early voting. They were afraid the “white man” would keep them from voting somehow.
thus pretty much anyone that was a hardcore Obama nut has voted. And half the people have not voted yet. Tues is going to be a busy day in NC.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:30 AM
And watch the campaigns.
Rumor is Obama’s campaign is in total panic mode…Have a relative who’s son works on the internet side, very, very high up…panic is the word of the day.
Apparently (he doesn’t see the internals” but they are pushing every button, everywhere, and the campaign is a bit unraveled. They are stunned by the weekend news.
right2bright on November 3, 2008 at 8:32 AM
right2bright on November 3, 2008 at 8:28 AM
Same thing happened with Wilder in VA. The dead voted Wilder into office.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:32 AM
It’s already the 4th in Australia. And time ticks by….
Crux Australis on November 3, 2008 at 8:36 AM
Michele on FOX now
Anti-Harkonnen Freedom Fighter on November 3, 2008 at 8:37 AM
And watch the campaigns.
Rumor is Obama’s campaign is in total panic mode…Have a relative who’s son works on the internet side, very, very high up…panic is the word of the day.
Apparently (he doesn’t see the internals” but they are pushing every button, everywhere, and the campaign is a bit unraveled. They are stunned by the weekend news.
right2bright on November 3, 2008 at 8:32 AM
I see it in the news. the MSM is trying very very hard not to report on the coal tape. Very hard.
they are trying to paint the election has over but I don’t see it. there is no way that 9-10% of the population can be undecided at this point. either they are closet racists or they are scared to say they are not voting for Obama. the undeciders over the last week have broken for Mccain 4:1 why would that trend change now. If anything the news is worse for Obama today then it was last week.
esp with his coal comment. the fact he isn’t going to Pa, OH is a big tell in my book.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:37 AM
Every “thread”?
If the Republicans show up, then we will win.
Look at the undecideds, and the undecideds are white. That means taking out the black vote the undecided have to go at least 10 and more like 12% for Obama, for him to win.
I think Obama is “clinging to every thread”…trust my last post, it is from an accurate source. Obama’s campaign is in panic mode and I wouldn’t doubt that he makes some interesting changes today.
If the Republican voters vote, McCain wins…
right2bright on November 3, 2008 at 8:37 AM
And where is he going in VA is it in the blue parts of the state. Is he trying to shore up is support so that the coal minning areas do not swing it for McCain?
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:38 AM
reaganrules on November 3, 2008 at 8:40 AM
My family is all Repubs up in Duluth and I have forwarded this posting to all of them and also to friends there and in the MSP area. This may motivate any of those who may be thinking–”Eh, doesn’t matter, we’re going blue”. It’s two fold–one vote for McCain, the other for Coleman.
I also sent this post to other friends in the US to see that no one is able to call this election over yet. Get out and vote tomorrow!
Keep hope alive!! McCain/Palin ‘08
Renwaa on November 3, 2008 at 8:46 AM
right2bright on November 3, 2008 at 8:37 AM
Was at a birthday party last night. there were about 20 people there. It was 19 McCain 1 Obama. Only 2 had voted. The Obama person said she wasn’t going to because the lines are going to be long and Obama “already won” the election. The 16 out of 17 MCain supporters all said they would be at the polls Tues.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:47 AM
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:47 AM
that was in NC
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:48 AM
Mr Eeyore, let me introduce you to the PUMAs.
http://www.hillbuzz.wordpress.com
I felt like throwing myself off the political bridge last week, then read Hillbuzz and am ready for tomorrow!!
Renwaa on November 3, 2008 at 8:50 AM
I am abroad and they already airing round the clock specials here, comparing the Zero to JFK and how The Dream has been achieved. How sweet it will be on Wednesday when these people will get a cold hard dose of reality!
Minnesota would portend a landslide. Go MacPalin!
prosetech on November 3, 2008 at 8:53 AM
Watch the stock market today. If it rallies someone knows something. A McCain victory will mean good things for our economy. If it tanks someone knows something an Obama win will be bad for the economy.
Watch certain industries within the market. If electric companies rally it means people think Obama will win. If coal companies drop it means people think Obama will win. Same with Oil, natural gas.
Defense contractors will also be a tell as well as tobacco companies. those paying dividends etc. You can learn a lot form the market today about the election tommorrow. People’s wealth iis at stake they will go towards the winner and they have connections so they know the internal polls. that is the insdie information that makes millions or saves you millions.
watch ticket symbols. MO, BTU,DUK, PGN, DE, XOM, CAT,
union intense industries will sell off if Obama is going to win. the auto markers are a bad tell because of the news from GM and washington today. But BA, CAT, X etc will be good indicators.
the market will more likely be correct that the polls
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 8:55 AM
Question; what time do the Minnesota polls close? That will be the determiner on whether a McCain upset there will help him beyond the 20-point Electoral Vote swing.
steveegg on November 3, 2008 at 8:57 AM
supression of gop votes,
trolls,
allah pessimism,
msm in the tank,
the change message=
EPIC FAIL?
i hope so
YRM on November 3, 2008 at 8:58 AM
Watch the stock market today. If it rallies someone knows something. A McCain victory will mean good things for our economy. If it tanks someone knows something an Obama win will be bad for the economy.
stock market has been uplately, a GREAT day would make it 10,000 again, if Mac wins you think a 900 day again on wed.? hehe remember when the dow went up big when w won 4 years ago?
YRM on November 3, 2008 at 9:00 AM
COuld it be that in chasing those mythical 57 states and trying to converting red states Obama failed to canvass his base in some neglected blue states? I am thinking Minnesota and Michigan. We are hitting their rear flank!
prosetech on November 3, 2008 at 9:01 AM
stock market has been uplately, a GREAT day would make it 10,000 again, if Mac wins you think a 900 day again on wed.? hehe remember when the dow went up big when w won 4 years ago?
YRM on November 3, 2008 at 9:00 AM
If McCain wins A wed rally of 1000pts is possible if the market has not rallied much today and tues. If it has rallies a sell off might occur. “buy on the rumor sell on the news”
If Obama wins the market will sell off and we will see DOW 7,000 by jan 21 and Dow 1500 by 2012.
Today will be the buy day I think. But the rumors, news and polls are all over the place so it may not tell us anything if the volume is low.
A rally on high volume will say good things about a possible Mccain victory.
A massive selloff on high volume will say good things about an Obama victory.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 9:10 AM
This makes sense-Minnesota has been the Liberal Disneyland for so long, when someone ‘Goofy’(Obama)comes along, we can parse his Libspeak for what it is: rhetorical nonsense.
In one year we pay more in taxes than some states pay in a decade. So anyone who wants to tax us back to the Stone Age has a tough hill to climb, Dem or not.
Doug on November 3, 2008 at 9:10 AM
Hey is there a company that produces fairy farts and unicorn manure? That would be the company to invest in if Obama wins since our entire economy will be powered by it by 2012?
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 9:11 AM
The last winning Democrat presidential candidate with over 50% of the vote was Jimmy Carter 32 years ago with 50.1% Think about the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s – there was no internet, no cable tv, no Fox News Channel, no conservative talk radio. Americans got their national news in half-hour broadcasts from left-wing nuts like Walter Cronkite and Dan Rather. Items like the coal tape, Rev. Wright, and Bill Ayers would have never seen the light of day and yet Americans still overwhelmingly voted for great Americans like Ronald Reagan over sitting presidents like Carter. The MSM was brutal on Reagan and Nancy and yet, Americans somehow got the information they needed to make the right choice. The MSM has shown they’re in the tank more than ever before this election and are not giving us the full story. Obama will not top 50%. Go McCain/Palin ‘08!
PatMac on November 3, 2008 at 9:11 AM
Doug on November 3, 2008 at 9:10 AM
I’m writing a book after the eclection called “What is wrong with Vermont?” I’m going to throw in some stats from MN and MI with it.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 9:12 AM
Obama is doing that to keep his shock troops on high alert and to discourage them from getting complacent, given his poll positions. It’s the mark of a good campaign, not a sign of true desperation.
I agree with the other commenters who say that the Presidential race is over. There is no reasonable possibility that McCain can win. The biggest thing we need to focus on now are those Senate and House races. We can’t afford a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and we can’t be so far behind that we can’t stage a comeback in 2010.
And, starting tomorrow night, after McCain gives his concession speech, we need to start VERY serious soul searching about the future of the party, and particularly the future role of evangelicals in the party.
P.S. This is a bad sign — of the 15 or so late-deciders I’ve spoken to, including at least three PUMAs (i.e. Hillary voters who would prefer to vote for McCain over Obama), 13 decided to vote for Obama, and 8 of the 13 specifically said Palin was the reason why they didn’t vote for McCain. Granted, that is not a scientific poll, but it’s disturbing given that I live in a premo battleground state (Ohio).
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 9:14 AM
I lived in Northern MN all my life until moving to Alabama 3 years ago. My kids all still live there. It’s huge democrat country because of the unions. But… this year there are no Obama signs to be seen. We lived in Central Wisconsin for a short period and that was pretty heavily democrat country. Obey district. The only Obama signs are in the yards of college students. Absolutely, Minnesota is in play. Wisconsin might be too if it weren’t for Milwaukee, Madison and down near Chicago. Come on people in Minnesota, you can do it, get people out to vote.
suzyk on November 3, 2008 at 9:16 AM
More accurately this is the Kerry effect. If a major party runs a big government candidate who is to the left of Dukakis, no matter how much the MSM tries to cover-up for the candidate when he tries to talk around his own positions, real Americans are going to eventually smell the big steaming pile of commie before election day.
Evan Thomas said the media would be worth 15 points for Kerry (and it was) and the MSM has been worth at least that for Barry. They didn’t think they had enough power to slide HRC past the public, but Barry seemed like a blank enough slate to get it done.
phreshone on November 3, 2008 at 9:21 AM
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 9:14 AM
hey idiot. The only way to ensure a senate and house is to GOTV for MCCAin and let the voters vote downticket. saying this race is over is giving the field to the dems in the senate and house. Take your eyeore crap and go peddle it elsewhere. The Americian people will vote McCain tues.
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 9:23 AM
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 9:14 AM
What an ass-hat. It ain’t over folks. In fact, the momentum has already swung McCain’s way HARD.
Sugar Land on November 3, 2008 at 9:24 AM
You fool, that is what Obama says, but I am telling you this kid (kid to me) is in the thick of things. This is the real deal panic, they know they have to decide on the “undecideds” and those are white, he has to take 10=12% more of them to win.
The “big boys” in the Obama office are muttering to themselves. They saw the overnights during the weekend and they took a beating.
Watch what Obama does, it will be a sign of panic. It is too late to play the “keep them on the toes” game, they are sinking.
PA, and OH are now McCains, Florida is McCains, NC the great majority of the blacks have voted and Obama is barely hanging on with that.
With the Republican vote, Obama has lost NC also…he is running out of options…now Minnesota?
Say goodbye to your sugardaddy Outlander, no handouts next year for you.
right2bright on November 3, 2008 at 9:33 AM
I hope you’re right. But John McCain as a campaigner is no Ronald Reagan. We have to hope for a silent backlash against Obambi and his nefarious associates.
The left and the media have done a good job of trashing Gov. Palin, and even folks who might have favored McCain over Obambi were taken aback. The bad rap on Sarah isn’t because of ideology; the interviews with Gibson and Couric made Sarah look stupid. She isn’t stupid, of course, but once cast, it’s a hard reputation to peal off (remember Dan Quayle?). “Only a heartbeat away,” is the mantra.
Sarah Palin energized the conservative base, but may have lost the ‘moderate’ Republicans and non-aligned for McCain.
Still, it ain’t over yet. The coal tape might have an effect—wish it had come out a couple of weeks ago.
MrLynn on November 3, 2008 at 9:36 AM
This news does seem to be a pleasant surprise. As if it did come out of nowhere. Which is where America will be if BHO is elected. Or maybe never-never land.
jimbodeano67 on November 3, 2008 at 9:36 AM
It’s too bad Palin couldn’t do one final rally in Duluth. Her hockey mom persona would’ve gone over great there. If The One does not get blow out numbers on the Range, he’s finished. MPLS/STP can’t deliver a margin to save Obama statewide. I do hope N. Minnesota can come through this year.
Also from SUSA, Paulsen and Bachmann are head in their congressional districts. That’s cause for real celebration!
IR-MN on November 3, 2008 at 9:42 AM
Wow, I’m a reliable conservative (and have commented here for months) and for daring to utter a perfectly reasonable conclusion to draw based on polling data, I’m name-called across the board: an “idiot,” an “ass-hat,” AND a “fool.” Grrrreat.
I’m not happy about these poll numbers, but there are just TOO many polls with TOO wide a margin for Obama for me to continue fighting. Rasmussen today has Obama up 7 nationally and, with “leaner states” included, with 313 electoral college votes. Maybe McCain will pull this off yet, and if he does, I’ll be very happy. But I don’t see how he can reasonably be expected to win enough battleground states (including VA, CO, and PA) to pull it off.
And contrary to your invective, r2b, Obama is not my “sugardaddy.” He’s certainly going to hike my taxes, socialize my health care insurance and 401(k) plan, and tank the economy.
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 9:45 AM
Look, i know this is supposed to raise people’s spirits, but this cherry picking of polls is counter-productive and just sets people up for a let down.
If we’re suddenly to trust Survey USA then:
New Mexico: 52 – 45 Obama
Pennsylvania: 51 – 44 Obama
Virginia: 50 – 46 Obama
All at or above 50. Either SurveyUSA is trust worthy or they’re not.
Trent1289 on November 3, 2008 at 9:48 AM
I think this is one of those races where the polling (which to a certain extent rely on past trends) isn’t necessarily a correct picture. If Minnesota or Michigan or any of the other upper Mid-west states supposedly safe in Obama’s count turn they will probably all turn or come close to doing so based on some dynamic that isn’t evident less than a day before the polling stops and the voting starts. It’s hard to believe that is really the case.
highhopes on November 3, 2008 at 9:48 AM
It would be rather miserable to live with sky high electricity rates in Minnesota, huh? Or was that “skyrocket”ed electricity rates?
I have relatives who are in that 23% of pro-lifers who are so high on the hopium that they are going to vote Obama. I sent the most reasonable on the story of Obama’s aunt when it broke, and got a snippy email in reply. Mega-devout Catholics all.
I think I will switch that devout to pious.
funky chicken on November 3, 2008 at 9:49 AM
I’m in India and have been doing phone interviews all day. On election day, will be doing live commentary. Please people, let me sit there amongst the America haters and be the winner!
Renwaa on November 3, 2008 at 9:53 AM
Your HotAir experience will not be complete until Manly Rash calls you a “douchebag.” It is his signature insult.
BigD on November 3, 2008 at 9:53 AM
Question?
How are you able to pull quotes out of story and have them appear on your response block?
hawkman on November 3, 2008 at 10:00 AM
My sentiments exactly. I’d like McCain to win but it will be an upset we haven’t seen since Harry Truman won.
There are those on this site (don’t know about r2b) who have been utterly ridiculous this election cycle. Any realistic discussion of McCain’s weaknesses or ways he wasn’t a conservative have been greeted with personal attacks and vitriol about being an “Obama supporter” for not unquestioningly and uncritically supporting McCain- even when he is dead wrong on an issue. Let’s be clear here, these people disgust me even more than Obama supporters because they are the cadre that foisted McCain to the top of the ticket in the name of “electability.” It didn’t work for the Dems in 2004 and it hasn’t worked for the GOP in 2008.
Republicans would have been in a far better position today if they had picked a true conservative with a fiscally responsible track record and positions that didn’t alienate half the party from the outset. To this day, McCain has done little to attract social conservatives and evangelicals. He has taken their votes for granted while he went out and courted the pro-murder, big government, higher taxes “moderates” of the left. Essentially McCain told social conservatives to f**k off and they returned the favor by not going out there and doing all the grassroots activism necessary for victory. He’ll get most of their votes tomorrow but he didn’t get their support because he didn’t ask for it when he went out there and dared them to vote for the other guy.
In the aftermath of tomorrow’s defeat by the GOP, the first step to regrouping for 2010 and 2012 will be to drive out all the fools who put electability over principle. The GOP needs to stand for its core values and anybody who demanded that we unquestioningly and uncritically support a man like McCain is as big a traitor to the party as the candidate himself has been in the past. Victory in 2010 will only occur with a clear agenda that resonates with the electorate about to be thrown in disarray as the Dems seek to pay off promises to special interests that date back to the Carter-era. We can’t do that until we purge the party of its traitors.
highhopes on November 3, 2008 at 10:03 AM
I think that anyone who was involved in the roll-out of Palin, the media handling of Palin, and the timing of Palin’s selection should be fired and should be permanently barred from working on major Republican campaigns in the future. Palin got savaged and got turned into a cartoon caricature of a dumbass hick and religious extremist through an onslaught of media and Obama campaign attacks. While there’s only so much you can do about liberal bias in the media, fact is, McCain’s camp TOTALLY botched her roll-out. They should have been working with her as early as July to make sure she was ready for the press, and feeding occasional stories about her into the press to try and create a media image. Instead, they plucked her out of Alaska on two days’ notice and threw her to the wolves — and had NO plan for how to deal with hostile media. They totally lost her message in the tsunami that followed. It’s an outrage. And unfortunately, it may have killed off one of our party’s great rising stars.
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 10:03 AM
This post makes me feel a tad better. Here in Ca. Our electricity is real high!!! I mean real high. Our water bill lately has been higher than the elect. bill. I have a real Liberal flamer cousin in Oh. I sent him a bunch of stuff. Yesterday I sent him the one on coal. He sent back a reply. It said OMG! I think maybe that made him think. Have to get in shower. Will be back. Don’t leave to work till 1:05 this afternoon. My 2 1/2 hour route. Not bad money for such little time. You all, except for the pain in the tail TROLLS rock!! Is this site that gives me hope. Is this site that I have learned some things that I never even looked at.
sheebe on November 3, 2008 at 10:03 AM
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 9:45 AM
rasmuseen has Obama up by 65 with a dem/rep weight of 39.6% to 32.% If the dems have an 8% voting difference it will be the first time in history.
We are in a fight for the future of the USA. We do not need eyeores like yourself and Allah surpressing the vote on tues. The polls are giving weights to Obama that have never been shown to occur. sure you can believe the polls and think McCain is going to lose. that’s your right but basing your view on information that is being based on numbers that have NEVER been shown to occur in history is like believing that CO2 causes global warming. It takes Fairy dust and a willing suspension of disbelieve not not question the end result.
Either way if the polls are right or wrong. We will find out on Tues. Until then we do not need another deafeatist in the foxhole. we all ready have the MSM’s bi*ch, Allah, doing enough damage
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 10:08 AM
Personally – I worry about Olbermann…..
Do they have the crash cart on standby
EricPWJohnson on November 3, 2008 at 10:13 AM
highhopes on November 3, 2008 at 9:48 AM
That is the problem. This years polling does not relie on past trends. They are using numbers never before seen in the weighing of dem/rep/ind. If they used past trend numbers the polls would be closer and people would be talking about the need for Obama to hold PA to not allow a McCain landslide to occur.
Polls shape preception. The polls are controled by those that want Obama to win. The IBD is close very close and they are using past trends. Not sure of Mason dixion but I would say they are also using past trends.
NC is a good example. the amount of dems/rep in NC has always been about 50/30/20. the early voting has been 50/30/20. the news takes this to mean that Obama is running away with NC. but NC dem voters vote rep in national elections and dem in local elections. So the “real” vote is most likely a lot closer than the 50/30/20 make up of the registered voters would suggest.
The democratic party in the South use to be the racist party. The blacks use to be rep in the South. Martin Luther King was a rep. Until the civil rights movement when the blacks switched to the dem party and people likeSen Helms switched to the rep party. However the registertions of voters nver really switched.
You see?
unseen on November 3, 2008 at 10:14 AM
Survey USA is one of the more straight up polling organizations out there. In this poll, the sample size seems large, but Minnesota has more Democrat and Independent voters than most other states do. Their polling (for Minnesota anyway) has been like this all year long.
LL
Lady Logician on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM
In that SurveyUSA poll on Minnesota, the party ID advantage goes to the Dems 39-32, a 7 point difference. Independents are a huge 25% of the electorate, and are breaking for McCain 47%-42%.
It’s really not unreasonable to think it will be close in MN.
If McCain holds serve on Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Missouri, and NC (as I expect him to do), and he gets MN, then amazingly he can win the election without PA, CO, NV, NM or IA.
edj on November 3, 2008 at 10:19 AM
highhopes on November 3, 2008 at 10:03 AM
Ironically, McCain bears many traits of a fiscal conservative. He’s one of the Senate’s biggest deficit hawks. But he isn’t a true fiscal conservative because I think he gets so obsessed with cutting pork that he loses sight of the big picture.
My concern is with the evangelical wing of the party. I am concerned that they are focusing so narrowly on life issues that their leaders and candidates are not sensitive to fiscal and defense conservatism. Bush’s “compassionate conservative” agenda was an example of that. There are a lot of Christians out there who believe that big government transfers of wealth to poor people satisfy the Christian’s obligation to help the poor, and that capitalism in its purest form is immoral and greedy. The Catholic Church is most infamous for it, but many protestant and evangelical groups preach that as well. I would love to see a resurgence of Neo-Calvinism (at least as it relates to economics) within the Christian community — the idea that limited government, free trade, and capitalism reflect the glory of God and not greed and avarice, and the idea that the Christian’s duty to assist the poor is a PERSONAL duty dischargeable only through individual acts and private charity.
Sorry for being philosophical on a day like this!
Outlander on November 3, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Cut and paste. Basically you hold your left mouse button down and use your cursor to highlight what you want to copy. Then right click and copy. Right click in comment box and paste. Highlight again and hit Quote button. Voila!
backwoods conservative on November 3, 2008 at 10:31 AM
Unseen makes a valid point (despite trashing “defeatists in the foxhole”—presumably there is more to this site than mere cheerleading) about Dem/Rep registration in southern states like North Carolina. Trying to extrapolate from early voting, based only on registration, is bound to be fallacious.
Polls that call more registered Dems than Reps are less obviously skewed, if they follow the registration percentages. Presumably the Dems who will vote Rep will show up correctly in the responses.
What is harder to evaluate is how these pollsters factor in previous voting patterns versus ‘models’ based on new assumptions (or conclusions) about who might or might not vote in this year’s election.
If the pollsters are making lots of untenable, wild assumptions (rather like the ‘climate’ modelers), then the polls are suspect. If not, then it is hard to discount them entirely, as many here are wont to do.
Hope springs eternal. I am not morose like Eeyore; rather less sanguine, more like Pogo’s friend Porcupine (showing my age), who would say, to all the cheerleaders, “Hmmph. Well, maybe. . .”
MrLynn on November 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
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