Is Virginia in the bag for Obama?
posted at 12:15 pm on November 2, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
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Meryl Yourish says no — and in fact one of the state’s largest newspapers agrees. The Richmond Times-Dispatch did its own polling in Virginia and got much different numbers than CNN and ABC over the last two weeks. They call the race a dead heat, and winnable for McCain:
The presidential contest in Virginia is heading toward a photo finish.
The final Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll of the campaign shows Sen. Barack Obama at 47 percent and Sen. John McCain at 44 percent. Nine percent are undecided — an unusually large slice of the electorate. The profile of undecided voters suggests that some are potentially opposed to Obama.
Because Obama’s advantage over McCain is within the poll’s margin of error — plus or minus 4 percentage points — the contest in Virginia can be considered about even.
Meryl says she heard an even smaller figure:
And this is what I was told yesterday at the Cantor rally: McCain is within one and a half percent. Undecideds trend against the frontrunner. Virginia carried Bush in 2004 and in 2000. Virginia is still a red state. Don’t believe the hype.
If Obama has not yet gotten a majority, he may never get it. Normally, undecideds break against the incumbent, but this race has no real incumbent. Obama tried to make McCain the incumbent, but the election has really become a referendum on Obama, and he knows it. Anyone still undecided at this point has not been able to convince themselves that Obama is ready for the presidency.
The percentage of undecideds has remained high right to the end — in some state polls, as high as 14%. Obama hasn’t made the sale, and I suspect most of them will wind up breaking towards McCain as a result. Virginia and Pennylvania will provide an especially interesting test of this theory.
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Then make a difference! Get out there and bring in the votes for McCain. You can do it. Call friends and family and neighbors. Make sure everyone gets to the polls and votes for John McCain and Sarah Palin.
After all…friends don’t let friends vote for Obama.
You betcha! Go McCain!
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 4:22 PM
PS I saw two of the 4×8 Obama-Biden “Lower Taxes” signs on Rt. 15 near Oatlands, I almost spit-out my coffee.
MarkABinVA on November 2, 2008 at 4:06 PM
Oh yeah, I’ve seen that one. I literally laughed out loud the first time I saw it. It’s so ridiculous it’s funny.
Vyce on November 2, 2008 at 4:29 PM
No way Va. goes blue.
No way.
VolMagic on November 2, 2008 at 5:09 PM
Just got back from Va – huge amount of McCain/Palin signs. Even some signs that were different than most, red ones. LOL
bloggless on November 2, 2008 at 5:33 PM
GENIUS!
Kevin71 on November 2, 2008 at 6:34 PM
People around me are even making their own signs for Palin/McCain ;)
We are on fire for Palin!
LimeyGeek on November 2, 2008 at 6:40 PM
Really?
Democratic governor? Check.
Recently elected Democratic Senator? Check.
Former Democratic governor about to be elected Senator? Check.
Yeah, no way VA goes blue.
RayinVA on November 2, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Xolom, have you not noticed how unusually high the percentage of undecideds is? And in many states, too. I think McCain is going to do much better with this group than Obama will, and here’s why. I think the number of undecideds is unusually high because many of them are looking for a reason to vote for Obama, who is certainly a very unusual candidate, and has a lot of surface appeal.
The reason I think they are more likely to go for McCain is because not enough is known about Obama. Here’s where the MSM’s bottling up of negative stories on him comes back to bite him in the a$$. Maybe they’ve heard the story about Ayers, and Wright. The question then is, how does Obama feel about it? We don’t really know, at this point, and that lack of info could tend to keep people from deciding on Obama.
Maybe they’ve heard about how he considers the constitution to be “fundamentally flawed,” even as he bemoans the “tragedy” that the Supremes failed to break with the “essential constraints of the founding fathers,” and pass some kind of economic redistritubion legislation from the bench. How does he feel about it today? We don’t really know, he’s never been asked about it. Again, that lack of info could tend to keep people from deciding on Obama.
If he had been asked about these, and the many other things that are troubling, he could have put them to bed–people are willing to accept that people can change their opinions. Instead we got. . . nothing, and so the fencesitters are stuck with their insecurity. The fact that McCain is both a known quantity and a moderate is a huge advantage with these undecideds. I think they’ll tend to choose that over a possibly radical, and largely unknown, Obama.
smellthecoffee on November 2, 2008 at 11:46 PM
I’m in Virginia and I plan on voting McCain tomorrow.
zoyclem on November 3, 2008 at 8:04 AM
WHY CAN MCCAIN WIN VIRGINIA? ! ?
In addition to some great comments by smellthecoffee on undecideds, there is a major area which has yet to be addressed specifically in Virginia. . . defense. The Hampton Roads area of Virginia alone has over 200,000 defense related jobs, and those undecideds out there know what side of their bread is buttered! With Barney Frank talking about gutting the defense budget by 25%, the wisened folks here understand full well what that will mean to the livelihood of every citizen in the area. They are already freaking out about the ramifications of a single aircraft carrier relocation down to Florida, let alone the loss of a full 1/4 of defense spending on not just military members and their families, but on government civilians, contractors, shipyard workers, hospitals, retail businesses, real estate.
Last week there was a map shown on Yahoo of states in recession and states still doing well. As all on this forum know, the recessionary forces were strongest in democratically institutionalized states, including most of the Atlantic states. . . the exceptions included Virginia. Why? One can postulate Virginia’s strong ties with defense have aided its steady-state economy while other Dem states are tanking due to their own fiscal irresponsibilities.
With that said, Virginia undecideds have heard about the liberal senators and congressmen gabbing about cutting defense so that money can be funneled toward more hand outs; they have heard about the dem backed plan to take away 401Ks (which include the Thrift Savings Plan used by the Fed/DoD). . . and trust me when I say many of those I have spoken to will be voting for their jobs and futures, not for economic suicide and Hollywood glitz.
ChrisRinVA on November 3, 2008 at 9:17 AM
I’m working the Polls in VA and planning on voting multiple times form McCain.. Just kidding.. mostly no.. but maybe yes..
not really..
DaveC on November 3, 2008 at 9:39 AM
Hey, if I was polled, I would say I was undecided, too. No way I’m admitting to some lib in pollster clothing that I’m voting for McCain.
LibTired on November 3, 2008 at 9:49 AM
As a Virginian, I feel many of the points made above are correct.
Strong military presence in VA helps McCain. I also have anecdotal eveidence that many who will vote R will not admit it out loud in some company.
O’s latest about bankrupting coal companies is outlandish. The democrat governer of VA, Tim Kaine, has fought greenies and others to get a new coal plant built. If we get 50% of our electricy from coal, how are we supposed to charge our new “green” autos? Especially with coal produced energy reductions?
Green energy sources are not yet cost efficient enough to replace coal. That said, I have no qualms about developing alternative energy sources. I just have a problem with how much wealth must be redistributed to develop them. There are large, well-funded, private pushes to increase the efficiency and decrease the cost of green technologies. When these bear fruit, the market will adjust accordingly.
Petroleum technolgy was first developed in the early 1900’s. 100 years has brought us to the current level. Solar technology has been around about 30-40 years and has proved lacking as a substitute for petro tech. Perhaps a few more years of research will provide the breakthrough needed to give petro tech a run for it’s money.
I have great faith in human inspiration and ingenuity.
As long as we have the freedom to think out of the box without political agenda, that is.
riverrat10k on November 3, 2008 at 10:05 AM
One other comment. Not seeing much “uniting” coming from the O camp. Electorate seems split about 50/50. I see just as much or more polarization in this race as in the last two. It would be nice for once to see a candidate with a clear mandate from a majority of Americans.
(crawling under my idealist rock now)
riverrat10k on November 3, 2008 at 10:10 AM
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