IBD/TIPP: Obama +2, under 50%
posted at 4:44 pm on November 2, 2008 by Ed Morrissey
TIPP got the 2004 almost exactly correct, and now they’re showing a much closer national race than almost every other pollster. They now have Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by only 2, 46.7% to 44.6%. Outlier? Prophets? We’ll see on Tuesday, but if they’re right, two points in particular have to be worrying Team Obama:
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
The internals are interesting, but the topline results show two potentially disturbing trends for Obama. First, Obama has never gotten to 50% in the TIPP poll, and now has dropped below 47%. A Democrat hasn’t won 50% of the vote in decades, and Obama may have the same problem John Kerry had in 2004. Related to that is the high level of undecideds. Almost 9% still have not made up their minds about the election, and as I wrote earlier today, that bodes ill for Obama. If he hasn’t made the sale with this group by now, it’s likely that most of them will wind up in McCain’s column on Tuesday.
How do we know this? Independents have begun to break for McCain. McCain now leads 45-43. A week ago, Obama led 43-38 with 19% undecided. The entire 7% that has come out of the undecided column in that period have gone to McCain, and 12% of them still have to make up their minds. Interestingly, slightly more Democrats than Republicans are undecided — not good news for Obama.
If TIPP is right — and at the moment, they’re occupying a lonely spot among national pollsters — then it calls into question the notion that Obama is leading in all of the battleground states. We’ll see who was right on Tuesday.
Blowback
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I saw this at Strata-Sphere:
RCP has now dropped Obama’s EC votes down to 278 as the most of the country drops into the toss up category – clear momentum for McCain-Palin. On Friday Obama had a 179 EC lead and since then he has lost over 50 EC votes. That is a lot of erosion in one weekend. There is all this talk about how pollsters and pundits would not go premature like 1948 and call this race for Obama before election day. Seems they were unable to control themselves and did just that
Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 6:57 PM
RACIST! :-P
KSgop on November 2, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Pack sand…
jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 6:57 PM
Mexico’s electing a president, too? Who knew?
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 6:58 PM
Fortunata: OT
Since you were mentioning Fawlty Towers the other day, did you happen to catch the recent news concerning Manuel and that Beeb guy who was fired? It seems they were calling his daughter. I can’t find the original story, but here’s a bit of it:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/oct/29/andrew-sachs-profile
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/oct/29/andrew-sachs-profile
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 6:58 PM
If you live in New Mexico, the illegals will be voting right beside you.
Thank Bloated Bill ‘$120K’ Richardson.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:00 PM
Watch out. Fortunata will make you slam down $48.00 for the economy. After talking about Fawlty Towers with her, I went and bought the entire set on Amazon.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:02 PM
Just an anecdote: I live in Northern Virginia was standing behind two young women at Chipotle who looked like the opposite of typical Republicans (seemed “alternative lifestyle”). One girl suddenly stated to the other, “Obama is so left wing, he scares the sh*t out of me.”
Seems to be typical sentiment going around even here in liberal Northern Virginia. There are very few Obama bumper stickers in much of Fairfax County and a lot of McCain.
I predict that Virginia will go for McCain. It is NOT because of racism that Dems are switching to McCain; it is because Obama is a communist, and people are beginning to realize this fact.
Gabe on November 2, 2008 at 7:02 PM
In the primaries here in Ca. There were Mexicans and you could tell they were not legal. They were voting. I said something smart and very loud to one of the workers. She looked pretty shocked. There were a lot in there too. Guess they don’t ask for ID at all. They didn’t ask me. I would say that is not fair.
sheebe on November 2, 2008 at 7:06 PM
My kids got me that, and Keeping Up Appearances. Many hours of bliss.
(Unfortunately, believe it or not, I recently saw John Cleese on TV in NH with Frank Luntz and one of his brain-dead undecided voting groups. Cleese was as loony a leftist as they come. I decided I was cutting off my own nose to spite my face if I stopped watching, because they had given me so many hours of fun.)
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 7:09 PM
Fawlty Towers is maybe the funniest comedy series ever made, but I can’t watch it because I look and act too much like Basil. It’s like watching the Worst of Me right there on TV
…and you’re right about the Pot thing………
Janos Hunyadi on November 2, 2008 at 7:09 PM
F*ck it. Keep fighting. Cancel their votes with your own… get everyone you know to the polls. A vote for McCain is a vote for America.
Make it happen.
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 7:11 PM
As anyone else here seen an Obama early voting march/ride in their city? Unfortunately, I was in Wilmington, NC this past weekend. On Friday, a bunch of wacked-out hippies put on Obama masks and Halloween costumes and marched around downtown. Later, I saw them riding on bicycles to the polling place.
At the time I wished they would bicycle into the ocean.
m064404 on November 2, 2008 at 7:11 PM
I grew up watching Fawlty Towers…PBS on Saturdays when they were begging for money.
It brings back good memories and I can’t wait to get my package. John Cleese is a legend. Most legends go off the deep end, though.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:12 PM
The fact that they’re morons is precisely why they entertain us so. The Hollywood left is willing to act stupid, or to be sexy and strip down nekkid, or to play make-believe in front of a camera, for our entertainment. If they had half a brain, they wouldn’t be doing that!
stonemeister on November 2, 2008 at 7:12 PM
You need a paint ball gun. Hippies get you 40 points. If you ding em enough that they have to take a detour to the hospital, you get a bonus 100 points.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:13 PM
oooh, I never thought of it as entertainment. That’s a very good idea. Like watching the monkeys at the zoo. Thank you.
Do they take requests?
I’d like to see nancy Pelosi in a circus outfit riding George Soros dressed as an elephant. Barry could follow along sweeping up the dung.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 7:16 PM
please…let me….*drooling*
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 7:16 PM
We will have none of that… You must be politically correct on this thread…
HE’S A MARXIST!!!
jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 7:17 PM
Ego and Mouth. Must read.
Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 7:17 PM
People may also be figuring out what will happen to northern Virginia’s economy if the defense budget is cut by a quarter…
Realist on November 2, 2008 at 7:22 PM
I thought I would add on the “high school graduates” polling, I’ve been to two of our local offices and there are a lot of young people, I mean A LOT, who are down there running volunteers for door to door efforts, phone banking and general election office activities.
also, saw Mitt Romney today. Funny guy and stays on message.
Kat_Mo on November 2, 2008 at 7:23 PM
Michelle O. in 2004.
Well, he still hasn’t done anything, yet.
Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Yes, I saw the story. One of the culprits is a slightly has-been talk show host, one of the least insightful interviewers ever. The other was that Russell Brand git who was recently in trouble at the MTV awards here. Most of the British public think the morons got what they deserved; there’s still a lot of affection out there for “Manuel”.
If you like British comedy in a sketch format I recommend “The Fast Show”, and for those with a strong stomach and a taste for the politically incorrect, “Little Britain”. Not sitcoms, but absolutely spot-on in terms of character sketches that tell you about Britain today.
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Have a friend in New York; seriously left on most social issues (I thought at least) and recently she hooked up with a new guy.
In describing the date(s); she said he was hot, listened well and had a very high opinion of her. Then stated she dumped his ass because the idiot (her words) was voting for Obama.
Lord Nazh on November 2, 2008 at 7:25 PM
We libertarians bust our asses for our conservative friends. I just spent the entire day sign-waving for a conservative candidate. And how do SOME of our conservative friends pay us back?
By calling us libertarians “scumbags” because we support legalization of marijuana.
Thankfully, I’m assured that this is not the majority view amongst my conservative friends. I would strongly advise those minority of you, who like to bash us libertarians for departing from your conservative viewpoints on a few items, that we are in an all out War with the Left. And you conservatives cannot win it alone. You need us libertarians at your side.
Thus, comments like the one above are extremely counter-productive.
ericdondero on November 2, 2008 at 7:27 PM
Don’t forget the steak and scotch.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:28 PM
Get a room! Now!
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:29 PM
sorry about that…OMG…scary link…just what are people like her going to do Wed morning… after her hOpes have been dashed…what a pity…
jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 7:30 PM
Tell that to the widow of Border Patrol Agent Luis Aguilar. He was run over by a Hummer while trying to stop fleeing Mexican drug runners back on January 19, 2008. YOUR support of legalization of marijuana kills AGENTS that are serving to protect your miserable a$$. So, don’t give me your mealy mouthed libertarian bullsh*t. You can eat it for all I care!
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:32 PM
He started it, Platy.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:33 PM
OT: More British comedy recommendations: All you Catholics here should check out “Father Ted”; I swear I would convert for the delightfully dim Father Dougal. The Prots might like the rather gentler “Vicar of Dibley” , also full of dim nitwits. I think you can get them on those video subscription thingies like Netflix.
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 7:33 PM
Ego and Mouth…
Entelechy on Nov 2,2008 at 7:17PM.
Entelechy: Thank-you for that link,and very sobering!!
I do like the glib part with Joe Biden!:)
canopfor on November 2, 2008 at 7:33 PM
No, we really don’t. You need us to have a big tent but that is ending.
Why don’t you go form your own party? Oh, wait, been there done that, read the results with a microscope.
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:34 PM
platypus, I’ll take the libertarians. I’ll even take canopfor, and he’s Canadian, so long as we save this republic. Without saving it, all other doesn’t mean much.
Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 7:36 PM
Quite right. And he should know better than to tarnish your reputation in public. :)
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:36 PM
It’s too late, I’m afraid.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:37 PM
Hi guys, I just came from a rally keynoted by Mitt Romney in Evansville, Indiana. Plenty of enthusiasm. Keep the faith.
Oh, and I got to shake Mitt’s hand. I’m giddy as a schoolgirl.
mikeyboss on November 2, 2008 at 7:38 PM
Maybe you’re a ‘libertarian conservative’ rather than a ‘libertarian’. There’s a big difference here between being the Noun or the Adjective.
Or, if you’re willing to do God’s Work for a Republican candidate in a crucial election, you’re a Smart & Useful Libertarian ( as opposed to those who use the term ‘libertarian’ to hide their real single-issue identity as pot-legalizers,etc
Janos Hunyadi on November 2, 2008 at 7:39 PM
I liked Mitt Romney. He was my second pick, behind Fred. Unfortunately for conservatives, Fred was dead.
He is a good man. He needs to make sure he has all his values intact. He is the future. We will not have democrats posing as republicans in charge of our party after McCain’s four years.
YES MCCAIN WILL WIN!
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:40 PM
Palin Unleashes New Attack Against Obama On Coal:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/11/02/politics/fromtheroad/entry4564043.shtml
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 7:41 PM
And for that I apologize.
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 7:41 PM
I have no problem with the libertarians. I do have a problem with him trying to justify using dope because he does some grunt work. It’s the same contamination routine the deviant sex worshipers used and now look at how much trouble they started once they were inside the tent.
Better to throw a few of them under the front of Obmabi’s bus. The rest will either leave or shut up. I don’t care which as long as the tent becomes true conservative again.
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:41 PM
Love the word “git.” Makes me laugh. Don’t get those “toff” channels that would have this these days. Maybe I can find those others at the library :)
Don’t forget, Are you Being Served.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 7:42 PM
No apologies needed, Manly. It’s all good.
mccain/PALIN 08!
Make Obama, Reid, Pelosi, Schumber, Kennedy, and the rest of those sh*tbirds cry like babies!
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Now that is quite alarming. You should get some treatment before it gets real bad.
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:43 PM
What does “git” mean, Fortunata? I used it to insult a lady that was going after America’s place in the world. Mags or something. She said Americans should be shamed. I let her rip and called her a “git”.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 7:45 PM
There you go.
Moxie on November 2, 2008 at 7:46 PM
“A Democrat hasn’t won 50% of the vote in decades”
That is an important point and one that surprises people when I bring it up in conversation. They seem shocked to learn that Bill Clinton never won 50% of the popular vote until I remind them of Ross Perot and how Perot allowed Clinton to win with less than 50% by splitting the Republican vote. The closest Clinton got was 49% in 1996. Dole got about 41% and Perot got about 8%.
crosspatch on November 2, 2008 at 7:46 PM
Hahaha…*claps hands over eyes* . I loved Mr Humphries best. Also all those “Carry On” movies. They’re from a different era now.
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 7:47 PM
Mandate. Some get it, some wish for it, and everybody claims to have it.
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:49 PM
Oh, and Obama sitll has Ralph Nader to contend with. Democrats who can’t vote for Obama but can’t bring themselves to vote for McCain still have an alternative with Nader rather than just staying home.
crosspatch on November 2, 2008 at 7:49 PM
As a Roman Catholic I invite all of you to watch this video.
Now is the time. Let us all come together. AND DO WHAT IS RIGHT.
FiveWays on November 2, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Funny! I live in NOVA also. Was at the Safeway yesterday. Didn’t realize that I had a McCain t-shirt on. It was one of those cheapies I bought (3 for $10) on the Mall that I wear when I cut the grass.
Anyway, behind me I heard a voice…”You’re not the only one.” I turned. An older woman said “You’re not the only one. There are more of us here. You’re brave to wear that shirt.”
I laughed and told her I haven’t had any problems. She admitted she didn’t either. Another woman joined us and laughed. After a minute an older gentlemen joined in also. We owned the entire coffee/cereal aisle.
Northern Virginia will vote for HopeBama but not in the numbers people expect. We love America here. We love life here. We will not let Facism take over here.
God bless us all.
crash72 on November 2, 2008 at 7:51 PM
You really know how to mess with MichelleMyBelle’s mind.
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Java Junkies for McCain!
platypus on November 2, 2008 at 7:53 PM
LOL, you didn’t really let rip I’m afraid.
Try: http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A753527
on The Origins and Common Usage of British Swear-words
(“git” is about threequarters of the way down. )
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 7:53 PM
These days, I’m thankful for all the votes we can get, be they from libertarians, PUMAs, atheists (like AP), or Latinos who like McCain because of his immigration policies.
We hammer each other during the primaries; come Tuesday, let’s smash the Big Gov’t Lefties.
jazz_piano on November 2, 2008 at 7:53 PM
Awesome! I can’t tell you how much I respect that.
Oy! Useless? You won’t say “useless” when my band of masked Byzantinists and I ride into Washington, pluck Obama out of his fifth term and restore democracy to America!
Tzetzes on November 2, 2008 at 7:54 PM
I shall fire you up with a stirring recital of Babylonian poetry. In the original.
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 7:56 PM
Entelechy,
Thomas Sowell rocks!
maverick muse on November 2, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Please, sell all first thing tomorrow! – PatMac on November 2, 2008 at 5:26 PM
Pish posh. McCain will win this and win it handily. Manly Rash said so. And Manly Rash is right. Buy. BUY.
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 5:42 PM
PatMac said tomorrow. I rather think he is hoping to pick up some cheap stocks before they rise after the election.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 5:45 PM
PatMac on November 2, 2008 at 7:57 PM
LOL. I didn’t know it meant that either. Great site.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 7:57 PM
Yes, come to think of it, you were perfectly clear. Must be the time change.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 7:59 PM
“git” is derived from an old English word for “illegitimate” It is usually used in the context of a contemptuous person.
OldEnglish on November 2, 2008 at 8:00 PM
HOLD THE LINE!
The Patriot clip.
maverick muse on November 2, 2008 at 8:01 PM
amen, jazz
notice the lack of trolls on this thread? Wonder where they went / are hiding?
It’s like being outside and all of a sudden you notice the crickets have stopped chirping: Something’s coming……
Janos Hunyadi on November 2, 2008 at 8:01 PM
I absolutely love the Byzantine Empire, and the Ottomans, and the Mongols, and the Abassids et.al. In a former life, I was the sultan.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:01 PM
I keep seeing signs for Nader/Gonzalez along roads in Northern Virginia. I’m hoping the “Gonzalez” name will siphon votes from Hispanics who intend to vote Democrat when they vote.
I’m convinced McCain will win Virginia easily. The race in liberal Northern Virginia will be much closer than in 2004 because people want to hold on to their money, allowing the rest of the state to push Virginia for McCain.
Gabe on November 2, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Talking points meeting? Double time for Sunday?
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:02 PM
Pot luck at the Khalidis?
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:03 PM
I let her have it, but I added git because when I was young, I was obsessed with the UK. I put your site on my favorites. I am a writer and can always use some new words with a new character. Thanks.
Still waiting for Fawlty Towers package…waiting waiting, can’t wait.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:03 PM
I think William Ayers and Michelle-My Bell-Obama are having a block party.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:05 PM
Great! Me too!
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrowl……
Tzetzes on November 2, 2008 at 8:06 PM
Maybe it’s visiting day at the Rezco’s.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:07 PM
oh man, an eastern potentate unfettered by Christianity. Wow!!!
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:08 PM
Don’t we know it…. :p
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 8:08 PM
I lived in England for three years. Loved it. How about…
naff
innit
cumpie buvvud
the dog’s bollocks
Tzetzes on November 2, 2008 at 8:08 PM
One of my favorite actors, Jason Stratham…my fave movie with him…”Snatch”=any English mafia scheme movie has my attention. I just sit and listen to the slang and all. Love it!
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:10 PM
You’re welcome, but it’s not my site, it’s the BBC. Check out those other comedies I mentioned too, if you can.
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 8:11 PM
I am fascinated with the British and with Yiddish. And with rhyming. But seriously.
jazz_piano on November 2, 2008 at 8:11 PM
So if the British, as exemplified by their humour, are so understated and sophisticated and droll, what exactly do they see in that GIT Obama?
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:12 PM
I would have never found it….hate the internet…TOO MUCH STUFF.
I will, thanks.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:13 PM
Pipe down, ebony and ivory.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:14 PM
Sooooo where is everyone live blogging/chatting tue through the night????
I took wed off, scotch ready to go!
Looking for somewhere to hang…..
HoosierCon on November 2, 2008 at 8:14 PM
They all see the writing on the wall…YEA!!!!
jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 8:15 PM
don’t worry. When Obama’s elected, he’s gonna shut it down.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:17 PM
How about the Barakopolis in Grant Park?
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:18 PM
I assume we will all be here, toasting the winner..McCain/Sara’cuda. And watching Matthews and Olbermann, along with the rest of the MSM eating crow.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:20 PM
This is exactly what I was noticing.
Here.. let’s try this.
*waves an American flag for bait*
“Heeeeere trolly trolly trolly”
*hand to my ear*
Hmmmm. Awfully quiet.
Well, let’s try this, then…
*waves a welfare check*
“Heeeere trolly trolly trolly!”
None of the standard troll baits are working. Any ideas?
Saltysam on November 2, 2008 at 8:21 PM
It’s gonna burn in the riot.
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:22 PM
EXCELLENT!!!
jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 8:25 PM
bring burgers.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:25 PM
Barack’s gonna tax them bad for the carbon.
JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM
If you don’t mind required religion classes, I’d suggest looking at traditional Christian colleges of various denominations. There are several evangelical ones, places like Brigham Young (I’m guessing the faculty there are pretty conservative – don’t really know), and the (few?) Catholic ones that are serious about traditional Catholicism (Steubenville, Ave Maria … NOT, sadly, Notre Dame or many others).
Rosmerta on November 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM
And Joe Biden will grow a full head of hair!
And Hillary will get a figure like Sarah Palin!
Murphy9 on November 2, 2008 at 8:28 PM
I’m smelling a rout here. The stock market has stabilized, gas prices are down, and many new issues have been revealed about Obama lately (spread the wealth, bankrupt coal plants, etc.).
I’m getting goosebumps just imagining Sarah taking the oath of office as V.P. The lefties will be crying!!!
I’ve already early voted and took two people to the polls that otherwise would not have gone. Everyone needs to find two or more people and drive them to the polls. GOTV is so important.
ZzzzDad on November 2, 2008 at 8:29 PM
Things are looking better, ZDad.
The democrats always tout the bad, ignoring that Americans can and will survive. We improvise and overcome.
Our troops will thank us for McCain’s win. They will come home in victory!
HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 8:31 PM
Sigh. The rest of the world is convinced that America is a deeply racist society that still has to wash away the sin of slavery. When we told people that we were moving to the USA, people seriously asked us, “But, doesn’t it bother you, all that racism against blacks, slavery and stuff?”. This from a bloody GERMAN whose grandad could have been a brownshirt and whose Dad could have been in the Hitler youth!. Where they had slavery only 65 years ago.
I notice that the other great slavetrading nations like Spain, Portugal, the Dutch and the French never let themselves or their colonies be defined that way.
And before we knew him better, didn’t Obama present himself as the great post-racial healer? A very prescient article if you can find it is: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can’t Win by Shelby Steele. (Excerpt).
Also the press is pretty much a Murdoch operation: The Times just follows Obama campaign talking points and The Guardian is sister paper to the NYT. Only the Daily Telegraph and the Spectator write anything negative about Obama. Most people get their news from the BBC and think it’s unbiased, when it’s more left than CNN.
Just my tuppence worth.
Fortunata on November 2, 2008 at 8:31 PM
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