IBD/TIPP: Obama +2, under 50%

posted at 4:44 pm on November 2, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

TIPP got the 2004 almost exactly correct, and now they’re showing a much closer national race than almost every other pollster.  They now have Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by only 2, 46.7% to 44.6%.  Outlier?  Prophets?  We’ll see on Tuesday, but if they’re right, two points in particular have to be worrying Team Obama:

The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

The internals are interesting, but the topline results show two potentially disturbing trends for Obama.  First, Obama has never gotten to 50% in the TIPP poll, and now has dropped below 47%.  A Democrat hasn’t won 50% of the vote in decades, and Obama may have the same problem John Kerry had in 2004.  Related to that is the high level of undecideds.  Almost 9% still have not made up their minds about the election, and as I wrote earlier today, that bodes ill for Obama.  If he hasn’t made the sale with this group by now, it’s likely that most of them will wind up in McCain’s column on Tuesday.

How do we know this?  Independents have begun to break for McCain. McCain now leads 45-43.  A week ago, Obama led 43-38 with 19% undecided.  The entire 7% that has come out of the undecided column in that period have gone to McCain, and 12% of them still have to make up their minds.  Interestingly, slightly more Democrats than Republicans are undecided — not good news for Obama.

If TIPP is right — and at the moment, they’re occupying a lonely spot among national pollsters — then it calls into question the notion that Obama is leading in all of the battleground states.  We’ll see who was right on Tuesday.


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Comments

theregoestheneighborhood on November 3, 2008 at 12:39 AM

I solemnly believe that the reason that slavery was not resolved peaceably can be found in the rogue decision of the Taney court, influenced by Calhoun.

I think it speaks volumes about legislating from the bench.

Saltysam on November 3, 2008 at 12:50 AM

For all you boys and girls, here is Johnny’s ride.

Fly, Johnny…….FLY!

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 12:45 AM

That made my night.

You Texans are alright.

Saltysam on November 3, 2008 at 12:56 AM

Saltysam on November 3, 2008 at 12:56 AM

I think that ride is above Barry’s paygrade ;)

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 12:57 AM

Limerick on November 3, 2008 at 12:57 AM

McCain is a stud.

You get a look at those chics hanging with him?

He makes Barry look like a boy in knickers carrying his schoolbooks and a Tito the Builder lunchbox.

Saltysam on November 3, 2008 at 1:01 AM

Well, this thread is more pleasant than the Gallup thread. Wonder why that is?

fossten on November 3, 2008 at 3:11 AM

Over the years I can remember once, exactly once, in several decades, being on the receiving end of a telephone poll call. This year so far I have received 6 or more. I also note that I either creatively fibbed (once) or declined to answer – as in hung the phone up with varying degrees of grace or lack thereof.

What does this mean for the election and the veracity of the polls?

herself on November 3, 2008 at 4:04 AM

herself on November 3, 2008 at 4:04 AM

Same here. I’m so turned off by the Obama hype that I just don’t discuss politics, with pollsters or anyone else. I’ll do all my talking in the privacy of the voting booth.

RedWinged Blackbird on November 3, 2008 at 4:40 AM

It is NOT over!

I spent 8 hours with 2 selfless actors – John Ratzenberger and Jon Voight – this past Friday. They could have been on the beach in Malibu, but instead they were visiting GOP campaign headquarters with Mitt Romney, boosting morale of phone bank workers and precinct walkers, signing autographs, taking photos, giving hugs, giving great informal talks. I helped with security and convoyed with them from Reno, to Gardnerville, to Carson City – elbow to elbow in adoring, enthusiastic crowds.

Monday (today!!) I help at Gov. Palin’s appearance at the Reno Livestock Center (huge rodeo venue). My THIRD Palin rally.

We will win!!!

fred5678 on November 3, 2008 at 5:06 AM

Well, this thread is more pleasant than the Gallup thread. Wonder why that is?

fossten on November 3, 2008 at 3:11 AM

For one thing, the trolls are more active on the Gallup thread.

backwoods conservative on November 3, 2008 at 5:56 AM

Well, I hope that the rest of the nation is more tolerant than the “tolerant” Liberals on the West side of Manhattan.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27470464#27470464

Vote McCain/Palin ’08 !!!

worlok on November 3, 2008 at 9:56 AM

I think so, but the truth is I am so confused by these polls at this point that I am not sure of anything.

Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 5:32 PM

Disregard the polls, the in-the-tank media are trying to supress turnout for McCain by making it look as the Obambi has the election in the bag!

The only thing you have control over and be sure of is to get to the polls and vote, that’s the best way to give the middle finger to the MSM and Obambi’s socialist agenda!

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

Liberty or Death on November 3, 2008 at 3:10 PM