How soon will we know on election night?

posted at 3:00 pm on November 2, 2008 by Allahpundit

Answer: Pretty soon, potentially. Via CNN, a rundown of when the polls in various battleground states close (all times ET):

7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
———————————–
9 p.m. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota
10 p.m. Nevada, Montana

I didn’t include Iowa because it’s not a battleground anymore, assuming it ever was, but that’s also a 10 p.m. close for what it’s worth.

The line is there because none of the states below it matter much unless Maverick’s come close to running the table in the states above it. Play around with CNN’s electoral map and you’ll see what I mean. Give him every last state from 9 p.m. on, then try to figure out how many pre-9 p.m. states he can lose and still reach 270. Unless I missed something, it boils down to this:

1. He can afford to lose any single state above the line, no matter which it is, so long as he wins all the others.

2. He can afford to lose any combination of Indiana, Virginia, and Missouri (but not all three), so long as he wins every other state above the line.

3. Under no circumstances can he afford to lose a combination of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. Two out of three is a must, plus every other state above the line. McCain currently trails in all three by anywhere from four to seven points, per the RCP state averages. (Fun fact: Given my assumptions, if Maverick wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, Obama wins Ohio, and they split Indiana and Missouri, it’s 269-269.)

What this means, given The One’s lead, is that each hour on Tuesday night operates almost like an elimination game. If McCain wins Indiana and Virginia, he survives and advances to the next round against Ohio and North Carolina. If he wins both of those, he moves on to the eastern regional championship in Pennsylvania and Florida. And if he wins both of those, he heads west for the Final Four Six. As I say, he can technically afford to lose one or two states early (depending upon which ones they are), but the bellwether omens will be grim if he’s dropped any battlegrounds before 8 p.m. And again, to win the election he’d almost certainly then have to win all six of those western states. If you believe PPP, not only does The One lead big in Colorado and New Mexico, but a majority of voters have already cast their ballots. Assuming that’s true, McCain’s margin of error above the line is virtually zero.

Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately. Here’s the latest battleground snapshot from Mason-Dixon. Every vote counts, swing-staters.


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May our MR be right and it be over at 11:00p.m EST. -Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:42 PM

The support for McCain will be more overwhelming than anyone – ourselves included – imagined.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:51 PM

It s/b forbidden to make any calls before the west coast polling stations close.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:47 PM

Yep. But Democrats would likely win anyway. Dems hold a majority in 28 delegations, Republicans in 21, and a tie in 2 (we’re counting D.C. as a state here). They’re poised to make big gains this year.

Additionally, that unit rule only applies to the House for P. The Senate decides VP by a majority vote, so Biden would be it.

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Chris wallace Rick Davis interveiw today on Fox news

WALLACE: … between 30 and 40 percent of the actual turnout, total turnout, in this election has already voted early.

And I want to focus on one key state. In North Carolina, more than 2 million people have already voted, and we don’t know who they voted for, but we know that registered Democrats vastly outnumber the number of Republicans, 53 percent to 30 percent.

Hasn’t Obama, Rick, already banked a big lead in a number of these states in early voting?

DAVIS: Well, I think North Carolina’s a really good example for you to use, because if you’ll notice, too, in the survey data, if you take out all the early voting people, John McCain is over 50 percent in that state.

WALLACE: Rick, what do you think are the chances that we’re — because there has been this question about voter suppression, voter registration fraud, that we’re going to see a blizzard of lawsuits on election night, and we may not know for days or even weeks who the new president is?

DAVIS: Well, we’re hoping that we win by such a landslide that that puts to rest all those kinds of issues. But look. I mean, you know, this is going to be a close election. I have no doubt about that. And I don’t know how much of that is avoidable.

I mean, but make sure you understand the distinction between organizations like Common Cause causing problems like this and the fact that ACORN is under investigation in 14 states by federal authorities. The FBI is looking into this organization. I mean, there’s a huge distinction between these two things.

The reality is, you know, we have every legal remedy that is available to us in the future. But look. We’re going to win this election. We’re going to win it outright. And I think on Wednesday morning you’ll wake up and John McCain will be president-elect.

WALLACE: But I just want to make it clear, you reserve the right if you feel that something has gone down wrong in the polls in any state in the country that you’ll go to court.

DAVIS: Oh, absolutely. I mean, there’s no question that we’re going to monitor this election. We have the largest Election Day operation in the history of our party’s activities ready to go to ensure that we have a fair and honest election.

William Amos on November 2, 2008 at 3:53 PM

It s/b forbidden to make any calls before the west coast polling stations close.

Which is at 8:00p.m. east coast time.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:53 PM

The support for McCain will be more overwhelming than anyone – ourselves included – imagined.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:51 PM

I thoroughly doubt it. At least one commentator is saying McCain will win with 40 states.

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:53 PM

Excellent post. A model of objectivity. I have printed out your analysis and will now be able to avoid all talking d***kheads during the evening of the fourth. I can occasionally look at the nice colored maps with the sound muted. Megyn Kelly is, of course, the exception.

horatio on November 2, 2008 at 3:54 PM

you want positive? go over to ace’s place

http://minx.cc/?post=277172

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/10/notes_from_a_battleground_stat.html

you want to make a last minute donation, no matter how small? go to http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com.

They are fantastic guys who have left IL with a large group and hit PA and OH. They are smart and funny, and will be very persuasive to undecided voters or democrats who need encouragement to vote against Obama.

They deserve our support and thanks…even if you can only afford 10 bucks, please support them.

I’m off to shower and hit the streets for McCain/Palin here in NV. The Californians have been amazing….but they all have to head home in the early afternoon to make it to work Monday morning.

funky chicken on November 2, 2008 at 3:55 PM

The end: The local GOP is trying frantically to get ANYONE to show up at McCain’s Pittsburgh rally tomorrow. I got three calls already today. I just cannot make it there tomorrow.

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

Hey, look—it’s Jay the Axelturfer again.

Sekhmet on November 2, 2008 at 3:56 PM

TIPP: OBAMA 46.7%… MCCAIN 44.6%… NOT SURE 8.7%… http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN

Tazz 55 on November 2, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Best news by far IMHO. IBD polls got closer than any in 2004. With that many undecideds and Obama only up by 2 points, this is very far from over for McCain/Palin.

carbon_footprint on November 2, 2008 at 3:58 PM

So sorry

Which is at 8:00 11:00p.m. east coast time.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:53 PM

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 4:02 PM

I thoroughly doubt it. At least one commentator is saying McCain will win with 40 states. – amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:53 PM

You can also doubt that the sun will rise tomorrow. But the sun will rise.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 4:03 PM

“We’re going to win this election. We’re going to win it outright. And I think on Wednesday morning you’ll wake up and John McCain will be president-elect.” – Rick Davis – William Amos on November 2, 2008 at 3:53 PM

I’ve been saying this for two farking weeks and I’m starting to get hoarse. But I appreicate the post, William Amos. Keep up the excellent work.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 4:06 PM

You can also doubt that the sun will rise tomorrow. But the sun will rise.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 4:03 PM

I’m sorry that I’m not joining many of you in your delusions, but McCain isn’t going to carry 40 states. I don’t deny that he’ll likely win, just that it’ll be a 40-state landslide.

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 4:08 PM

When McCain/Palin win in 2008, will Axelrod be held accountable for all of his sheenanigans…………?

Seven Percent Solution on November 2, 2008 at 4:09 PM

I’m sorry that I’m not joining many of you in your delusions, but McCain isn’t going to carry 40 states. I don’t deny that he’ll likely win, just that it’ll be a 40-state landslide.

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 4:08 PM

I’ll settle for 271 EVs.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 4:11 PM

I wonder how many people will still be standing in line to vote after the official closing time? Our polls close at 7 PM in GA but they expect people to still be voting up to 10 PM if the early voting is any indication.
Exit polls may be even more worthless this time around.

Just A Grunt on November 2, 2008 at 4:12 PM

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 4:11 PM

I’ll settle for 270.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 4:15 PM

Indiana is going to be the first bellwether state. If McCain wins this one comfortably, it will be an immediate indictment of the poll’s inaccuracies and it will set the tone for the rest of the night as well. By 9PM we should have an idea of where he stands with North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana. If he wins all three, hang in there, but not, go to bed early and brace yourself for one of the ugliest and most dangerous 4 years in American history that we will ever face.

Lincoln on November 2, 2008 at 4:17 PM

Exit polls will be even more worthless this time. They will be used to try to hand the election to Obama by 20 points by 5 PM Eastern time.

Pay them no mind, and get out and VOTE.

funky chicken on November 2, 2008 at 4:17 PM

Nope: wrong wrong wrong..

Why? because when the major networks call the vote they’re usually doing so on the basis of exit polls first and hope and belief second. Worse, early “Obama wins!” announcements can surpress McCain votes in areas where the polls haven’t closed.

Here’s a bet: ACORN will load the exit polls and the early network reports will call it all for Obama – no matter what the actual vote later reveals.

It’s about surpressing western votes; so CNN. MSNBC, et all will declare Obama the winner early on, and talking heads will call the election a done deal – why? because it works.

The latest from Gallup illustrates the power of polls to surpress – and if you think it’s a coincidence that they’re promising an Obama landslide just before people make their decisions you need to spend more time hanging out with a few good conspiracy theorists.

Paul Murphy on November 2, 2008 at 4:17 PM

I’ll settle for 270.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 4:15 PM

You win :) I’d like 300, but 270 will be just fine.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 4:19 PM

Worse, early “Obama wins!” announcements can surpress McCain votes in areas where the polls haven’t closed.

If this happens, and it probably will, I hope it backfires on them and suppresses Obama supporters.

El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 4:20 PM

Over by midnight, or over 48 hours later. I doubt there will be any middle ground. If it’s the latter, things could get really ugly.

michaelo on November 2, 2008 at 3:43 PM

Gotta keep my eye on that UPS tracking number for those NVG’s……………

Benjamin9 on November 2, 2008 at 4:22 PM

Why would he be asking for money with two days left?

El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 3:35 PM

To try to get enough money to pay back the massive, massive debt the Obama campaign is racking up. Remember that they will eventually have to refund all of the illegal donations.

ClintACK on November 2, 2008 at 4:24 PM

Well come to think of it, this does look familar:) Allah, Can call this one “Head Games” remember Foreignor?

http://www.puma08.com/2008/10/31/three-things-the-obamedia-will-do-to-depress-gop-turnout-and-help-obama/

Dr Evil on November 2, 2008 at 4:27 PM

Hello all. I came back from the church and later today we are going to keep a prayer group for McCain an d prop8. Just to let you know we are doing what we can even here in California.

clemycali on November 2, 2008 at 4:31 PM

To try to get enough money to pay back the massive, massive debt the Obama campaign is racking up. Remember that they will eventually have to refund all of the illegal donations. – ClintACK on November 2, 2008 at 4:24 PM

Heh…picture Don Corleone-type goons knocking on the door of the Obama mansion sometime in late November. Priceless.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 4:32 PM

I didn’t include Iowa because it’s not a battleground anymore,

Oh yes, it is.

If my promise is to buy ManlyRash a beer (or whatever, if you don’t drink, MR), my other promise is to slap some sense into AP, a la Don Corleon to Johnny Fontaine.

YOU CAN ACT LIKE A MAN, Allah.

Vyce on November 2, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Just to let you know we are doing what we can even here in California. – clemycali on November 2, 2008 at 4:31 PM

God bless you, Clemy. Keep fighting!

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 4:33 PM

Every vote counts, swing-staters.

Every vote counts in every state.
Email your conservative friends & encourage them that even if it seems inevitable that McCain or Obama will win that state, Congress & propositions & lots of other things need your conservative voice.

jgapinoy on November 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM

I cast an early vote for McCain a week ago Saturday, but I still expect him to lose. (Well, not here in Texas, of course, but elsewhere.)

That said, were I in Obama’s camp, the Mason-Dixon numbers, assuming they’re accurate, would give me pause.
Why? Well, with Obama, what you see is what you get. Bill Greener explains.

If I had to bet, I’d still bet on Obama to win. (Indeed, I peg him at 349 electoral votes.) And, of course, Obama will benefit from something no poll accounts for: some measure of fraud. But if the Mason-Dixon numbers are accurate, I’d have to reduce the size of my bet.

paul006 on November 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM

Not only did gore nearly win in 2000 but almost half the country voted for kerry in 2004. 2000 and 2004 were learning experiences for acorn and the democrats for what they could get away with (my guess is that the legitimate vote in 2004 wasn’t really as close as reported, they just don’t want to have an election closely scrutinized. They don’t want to go to court, they want to steal it with the popular vote and electoral college.). Monday should be a day of preparation, Wednesday morning if barry wins there will be a massive selloff of the market as rich people (ironically alot of whom will have voted for barry) get their money out of the US stock market. Get your money out of stocks and bonds and retirement funds and into money market accounts on Monday. You’ve been warned.

peacenprosperity on November 2, 2008 at 4:40 PM

refund all of the illegal donations.

The Supreme Leader will forgive his own debts or his minions will visit those owed money and suggest that pushing for those debts to be payed is not “patriotic”.

peacenprosperity on November 2, 2008 at 4:42 PM

It s/b forbidden to make any calls before the west coast polling stations close.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Exactly right.

MrLynn on November 2, 2008 at 4:48 PM

paul006 on November 2, 2008 at 4:37 PM

Pish posh. it ain’t over till it’s over, Paul. Get out the vote. Call friends, family and neighbors.

Friends don’t let friends vote for Obama!

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 4:48 PM

Wednesday morning if barry wins there will be a massive selloff of the market as rich people (ironically alot of whom will have voted for barry) get their money out of the US stock market. Get your money out of stocks and bonds and retirement funds and into money market accounts on Monday. You’ve been warned.

Wrong strategy – I think that market has already priced in an Obama victory. If McCain wins, look for the market to shoot up. The market may even go up if Obama wins, but Democratic congressional gains are smaller than expected, thereby limiting the Messiah’s freedom of action. Now if the D’s get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, big gains in the House, and the One, then the market will tank, but that seems very unlikely.

Realist on November 2, 2008 at 4:49 PM

Obama has two days to overstep his ego and give the undecideds a good reason to tilt to McCain.

A Macaca Moment is poised on the edge of his persona.

C’mon Barry, let the mask slip, sweetie.

The constant deception must be wearing you out.

Relax, O’Messiah, and show us your true face.

It’ll feel so good…

profitsbeard on November 2, 2008 at 4:51 PM

Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5

I’d be sweating if I were Axelrod. Like most of the pundits have been saying, if someone hasn’t been able to convince themselves to vote Obama by now, they probably never will. Most of the undecideds will be no-shows or vote McCain.

How many states end up in court?

forest on November 2, 2008 at 4:53 PM

I am greatly looking forward to a Tuesday night of bonfires, riots and blood running in the streets as the moonbats demonstrate precisely why Obama should never have been this close to the Presidency.

Perhaps VP-elect/ Gov. Palin can send out the AK National Guard to quell the riots.

Yup, I am looking forward to temporary martial law as the lefties are rounded up and imprisoned, not 4 years of a socialist dictatorship. After the initial round up is over with, we can proceed to Round 2 in January and start the trials for Frank, Dodd, Obama, et al. for their multiple counts of fraud, embezzlement and other crimes.

Damiano on November 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM

forest

Depends of how close the margin of victory will be for McCain and depends if the state has a large african-american population. But the numbers don’t look good for Obama. He is under 50% and McCain is closing fast.

clemycali on November 2, 2008 at 4:57 PM

It would be a dream of mine to encounter Allah at some function. Even though we don’t know what he looks like, I’m confident he sounds like a whiner and smells like a loser. I wouldn’t harm him. Just pour a drink in his lap for all of the times he chooses to piss on the folks who read this site’s Cheerios.

PLEASE send your resume to Huffington Post. It’s not that we don’t want to hear the Devil’s advocate sometimes. It’s just that no troll could suck the life out of chat room like this douche. He’s GOT to be Michelle’s cousin or something.

Sugar Land on November 2, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Is Allahpundit a Kos planted hero
Or maybe just a fiddling Nero
But he sure has spunk
Oh bunk
The man’s a turncoat lout
No, he’s just not one to with the talking points shout

But does he wear a rakish hat?
Oh, I’ll bet he’s not fat
Perhaps he swaggers on a heath
With several daggers in his teeth
Oh, don’t ya know he’s a real Romeo
To every mademoiselle
This blasted Allahpundit!

The secret simply will not keep
For Hotair’s losing sleep
It’s time to break the spell
Won’t someone bloody tell?
Who is Allahpundit?

Tav on November 2, 2008 at 5:06 PM

Yeah so basically if you live in Iowa, dont bother voting. Allah says its lost so dont vote. Get that rethugs? You’re wasting your time.

Allahs links says that a Lib Rag Newspaper poll has it Obama in a landslide so it must be true. So again, if you live in Iowa stay home and welcome your new Socialist overlord. It will give Allah at least 4 more years of something to blog about. Because a McCain administration would not be good for business.

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 5:18 PM

I live in PA (western PA, I’m one of those racist rednecks) and there’s pretty much no way I can see McCain winning this state. Eastern PA (Philly) is ~40% of PA voters, and it’s going to break hard for Obama.

Couple that would the urbanites in Pittsburgh breaking heavily for Obama (the suburbs seem to be about 50/50) and I really have low hopes for McCain carrying PA.

cameo on November 2, 2008 at 5:20 PM

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 4:11 PM
I’ll settle for 270.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 4:15 PM

50.2% & 290+…

jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 5:21 PM

I seriously cant believe I have to come to HotAir, friggin HOTAIR because the 8 other blogs I go to have so many disenfrachised people from here, that I actually have to come to a conservative blog to remind people to NOT LISTEN TO A CERTAIN BLOGGER.

Un-friggin-believable.

People dont listen to the polls posted here at HotAir, go and VOTE!

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 5:23 PM

If John Kerry, the posterchild of Limosuine Liberals could win PA, I don’t see how Obama, who is much more relatable, is going to lose it.

Speedwagon82 on November 2, 2008 at 5:25 PM

ManlyRash, dude you are a true believer!

JAM on November 2, 2008 at 5:26 PM

You guys want a poll? Here is one Allah will never post.

Obama 46.7% McCain/Palin 44.6% Undecided 8.7%

The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

Hat tip JackM at Aces Place:

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 5:27 PM

cameo on November 2, 2008 at 5:20 PM

I have tkts to Pens vs. Philly on 11/13, and Pens vs. MN on 11/18 that I’m trying to sell.

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 5:31 PM

You guys want a poll? Here is one Allah will never post.

You mean the poll Ed already posted?

cameo on November 2, 2008 at 5:31 PM

cameo on November 2, 2008 at 5:31 PM

Go ahead and sit here and excuse the behavior. I will make phone calls all day like I have been and go from blog to blog to let people know that they need to get out and vote.

Ass kissing a blog doesnt help the electorate.

I appreciate it though.

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 5:37 PM

Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately.

I think that, no matter what your political affiliation, every American can agree with this sentiment – whether it’s drinking in despair, celebration, or just relief that an election which has been going on for two friggin years already is over at last. Besides, the next president is looking at one heck of a metaphorical hangover from the Bush administration, and when you’re looking down the barrel of that you might as well go full bore and let the hangover be literal.

If McCain does lose, anyone who hangs a “Palin 2012″ sign on their front lawn in November will be shot. (No, not literally. But the temptation will be there. Can we at least wait until 2010 to start that campaign?)

Mal Carne on November 2, 2008 at 5:39 PM

People dont listen to the polls posted here at HotAir, go and VOTE!

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 5:23 PM

Been there already…
If my 50.2% prediction is across the board ….
Amerpundit will be eating crow big-time…

jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 5:41 PM

Can we at least wait until 2010 to start that campaign?

HELL, NO, WE CAN’T, AND WE WON’T

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 5:42 PM

BS if VA is called for Obama, all is lost. First, NOVA is heavily populated by those who either suck from the government teat or are imployed by the government teat, and thus are vested in seeing it expand greatly under an Obama administration. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised or dismayed to see VA go to Obama.

I’d actually be thrilled to trade VA for PA. Look at the electoral vote totals for the states.

A fair number of “conservatives” in VA are also of the Peggy Noonan/Kathleen Parker/George Will variety. Wankers.

No great loss…

funky chicken on November 2, 2008 at 5:59 PM

Damiano on November 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM

Damiano, my heathen friend! Where the fark have you been? I missed you.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 6:04 PM

ManlyRash, dude you are a true believer! – JAM on November 2, 2008 at 5:26 PM

Whenit comes to God…yes. When it comes to the McCain presidency: I KNOW. Mc will be president. Arctic Fox will be the vice-prez. Bank on it. Manly Rash says so.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 6:06 PM

Most Important:

Just don’t listen to the MSM. They will be calling the race even before the west coast gets to vote. Go out and vote anyway. They will count on you being depressed and settling into that fifth of scotch you have hidden in your desk before you vote.

Those of you in PA, and I don’t mean HA and other conservatives….

If you like your presidential candidate calling you a racist, gun and bible clinging redneck, then by all means, pull that lever for Obama. You’re too stupid to save.

If you like your congressman, the one representing your views in the congress, calling you a racist, redneck. By all means, bring that scumbag PorkChop Murtha back to Washington. But, before you do that, go tell a Marine that you will be voting for him. I hope you have to look for your teeth two blocks up on queer street.

HornetSting on November 2, 2008 at 6:13 PM

I think McCain will smoke ‘em. The master of illusion is just that…a darn good illusionist. People are pacing the floors waiting for election day to vote against Bo.

johnnyU on November 2, 2008 at 6:16 PM

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 5:37 PM

Excuse what behavior? I’d hardly call it ass kissing a blog to point out one of the bloggers on it has already posted the poll you’re complaining about not being posted.

idiot.

cameo on November 2, 2008 at 6:22 PM

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/10/notes_from_a_battleground_stat.html

Bad News from the Keystone State

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there is something that I want all of my blue state friends to know before it’s too late, and I’m not sure who else is going to tell you.

I CAN’T SEE HOW OBAMA CAN WIN PENNSYLVANIA.

I know, conventional wisdom says that the Democrats have the state in the bag. But turn off CNN, stop basking in the warmth generated by SNL, the Daily Show and Colbert Report and take five minutes to check this out.

rest link above.

Dr Evil on November 2, 2008 at 6:30 PM

I live in NC, I drove around the various polling places on Friday (I voted) and Saturday.
The lines were heavy, many waiting…but not in the black voting areas…there were no lines.
This year, unlike any other year, so few bumper stickers. So when you drove around you saw very little evidence of who they were voting for.
But one thing for certain, Obama needs and depends on the black vote, and it looks like he isn’t getting it.

right2bright on November 2, 2008 at 6:31 PM

cameo on November 2, 2008 at 6:22 PM

If you read my post, I said it was a poll that you would never see Allah post. Was I wrong? And in a few other threads today and yesterday I said that a negative Allah post would ALWAYS be followed by a positive Ed post. I was proven correct YET AGAIN.

But no, instead of deconstructing my argument that the post does nothing to help morale with conservatives, you just try and hang around and curry favor with bloggers in hopes that perhaps someday you will get guest-blogger status that will never come. Good luck with that.

P.S. Let me show you how to end a comment without using name calling like 12 year old.

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 6:42 PM

Wrong strategy – I think that market has already priced in an Obama victory.

Nope. The sell off has been going on for several weeks already. The powers that be have been putting enough money into the stock market to mask it, avert a panic and help the high rollers get their money out quietly without losing too much. On Wednesday it’s a whole new ball game, if barry is pres elect their will be a race for the exits. Don’t believe? Leave your money in.

peacenprosperity on November 2, 2008 at 6:44 PM

It s/b forbidden to make any calls before the west coast polling stations close.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Forbidden? I beg to differ:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

People have the right to state their opinion of who has won any given state, and to report that opinion in the press. Other people have the right to not believe them.

Don’t listen to the returns until you’ve voted and helped anyone you know who needs a ride to the precinct to vote. They don’t matter, because the polls are wrong, always have been wrong, and always will be wrong.

ILLEGITIMI NON CARBORVNDVM
AD ASTRA VOLEMVS SELLA TONANTI

The Monster on November 2, 2008 at 6:46 PM

It s/b forbidden to make any calls before the west coast polling stations close.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:52 PM

Really? And who will enforce that? A barry administration? The current administration has allowed the ny times and other outlets to print war time secrets without any repurcussions. Do you think barry is gonna punish cbs, nbc, abc, cnn for helping in the effort? I’m amazed that people don’t really get it that this is a serious push by the fascists to take over this country and they will do whatever it takes.

peacenprosperity on November 2, 2008 at 6:48 PM

What does “PPP” stand for? “Pretty Poopy Polls”? I’m at a loss…

-Aslan’s Girl

Aslans Girl on November 2, 2008 at 6:49 PM

My prediction is that it will be a long night, and may not be settled even by wednesday morning. I made a prediction some months ago that obama would not win one state south of the mason-dixon line (with the exception of Maryland), and I stand by that.

I also feel that McCain will take both OH and PA, and obama will then need help from out west, which I don’t think he will get. he will get NM and maybe CO, but also he is only 8% up on McCain in California! And he is also putting money into CA, and prop 8 is also help McCain there.

On top of that, David Gregory said this morning on MTP, that with the undecideds at this late stage being as much as 9-10%, that if obama has not sold himself on them by now, he probably won’t, and he expects majority of those to go to McCain.

So my prediction, McCain 303, obama 235

ConservativePartyNow on November 2, 2008 at 6:51 PM

If an elector decides to switch, there’s no longer a tie

.

That would be political suicide for the elector. It isn’t just Bob down the street who is the elector. It is a party faithful who wouldn’t be likely to change his mind.

slug on November 2, 2008 at 6:51 PM

That would be political physical suicide for the elector. It isn’t just Bob down the street who is the elector. It is a party faithful who wouldn’t be likely to change his mind.

This is 2008, not 1808.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 7:08 PM

First of all, the polls close in Indiana at 6 p.m, not 7:00. Same for Kentucky. IN and KY are always first to report. Second, watch the results in Vigo County, IN. Vigo has picked the winner of every presidential election since like 1920. If Mac wins in Vigo, feel good about the rest of the night.

Mayhem on November 2, 2008 at 7:31 PM

For what it’s worth — current weather forecasts for the above-the-line states (from weather.com):

Richmond VA – Rain
Norfolk VA – Rain
NoVa VA – Rain
Roanoke VA – Few showers
Pulaski VA – Rain
Abingdon VA – Partly cloudy

Pittsburgh PA – Sunny
Philadelphia PA – Rain
Scranton PA – PM Showers

Indianapolis IN – Sunny
Fort Wayne IN – Sunny

Greenville NC – Rain / Wind
Asheville NC – Partly Cloudy
Raleigh NC – Rain
Fayetteville NC – Rain / Wind
Henderson NC – Rain
Charlotte NC – Rain
Greensboro NC – Rain

Cleveland OH – Sunny
Columbus OH – Sunny
Akron OH – Sunny
Cincinnati OH – Sunny
Youngstown OH – Sunny

Jacksonville FL – Partly Cloudy
Daytona Bch FL – Cloudy
Orlando FL – Mostly Sunny
Tampa FL – Sunny
Sarasota FL – Sunny
Ft Lauderdale FL – Partly Cloudy

St. Louis MO – Sunny
Jefferson City MO – Sunny

eucher on November 2, 2008 at 7:32 PM

I’ve pretty consistently thought/said that McCain is going to win in a landslide of Reaganesque proportions. I still see no reason to back away from that.

The questions for me are: Will there be a reckoning with the mainstream media and how best to deal with the various illegalities of the Obama fundraising?

I also fully expect to see the media begin calling states for Obama as soon as polls close on the East Coast in an attempt to suppress late turnout in later timezones. Of course we’re also going to have a flurry of lawsuits and screams of “stolen election” almost simultaneous with each state’s polls closing.

Jason Coleman on November 2, 2008 at 8:00 PM

It’ll be over by 11 PM EST. McCain wins handily. Bank on that.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Have not read the thread as yet, but MR – I agree with you. Landslide and the headlines will have “Obama Defeats Obama! America Saved!”

Seriously, McCain wins so far and early that even the Media won’t be able to hide it!

kybowexar on November 2, 2008 at 8:13 PM

What will be truly hilarious is – Obama won’t be able to truly contest the election results when he loses.

If he bows out gracefully, perhaps the DOJ will forget all about the ACORN crap. However, if the Democrats would really like to investigate all of it, we’d all be thrilled if they would!

kybowexar on November 2, 2008 at 8:16 PM

For those expecting an early night, remember that in 2004 Ohio wasn’t called for Bush until about 2:00 am, and in 2006 the Virginia Senate race didn’t get decided until about the time the morning shows came on Wednesday. Given that any McCain win in these two or others will probably be a slim one, the nets will be extremely loathe to call it for him until they simply can’t deny it any more.

Dudley Smith on November 2, 2008 at 8:25 PM

If Mac wins in Vigo, feel good about the rest of the night. – Mayhem on November 2, 2008 at 7:31 PM

Then I goddamn well expect you to report here on election night, soldier.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 8:31 PM

I’m working as an election judge in sh**-caguh and afterwards I’m going home to a hot bath and an early bedtime. I don’t drink.
I told my husband that if we’re winning to wake me up.

annoyinglittletwerp on November 2, 2008 at 8:42 PM

Know on election night? We will never REALLY know.
The vote fraud is so massive and blatant that McCain will have to win by at least 65% to overcome it…. 75% here in New Mexico.

LegendHasIt on November 2, 2008 at 8:48 PM

I told my husband that if we’re winning to wake me up.
annoyinglittletwerp on November 2, 2008 at 8:42 PM

I guess you are not planning on getting any sleep, then!
I’m scared to watch, too! I’ll have 3 pillows on my head with my bedroom door closed…only the outrageously loud screams of my kids that McCain and Palin and our country have won will wake me up!!!

gracie on November 2, 2008 at 8:50 PM

JUST VOTE !!

And don’t pay any attention to those MSMedia types calling the election for Obama as soon as they think they can get away with it. Just like the 2000 election, when Florida was called for the Goracle BEFORE the panhandle voting had ended, the big 3 networks will do whatever they can to call the election for BHO in an effort to suppress McCain votes in the Rockies and points west!!!

STAND UP America and tell the left wing fringe that their 15 minutes of fame are OVER…..

Gohawgs on November 2, 2008 at 8:59 PM

I am greatly looking forward to a Tuesday night of bonfires, riots and blood running in the streets as the moonbats demonstrate precisely why Obama should never have been this close to the Presidency.

Perhaps VP-elect/ Gov. Palin can send out the AK National Guard to quell the riots.

Yup, I am looking forward to temporary martial law as the lefties are rounded up and imprisoned, not 4 years of a socialist dictatorship. After the initial round up is over with, we can proceed to Round 2 in January and start the trials for Frank, Dodd, Obama, et al. for their multiple counts of fraud, embezzlement and other crimes.

Damiano on November 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM

Hard to argue with that. Just don’t forget my two commie brothers-in-law.

JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 9:00 PM

JiangxiDad on November 2, 2008 at 9:00 PM

I’ve been wanting to say this for sometime now…
love the deadpan…lol!

jerrytbg on November 2, 2008 at 9:16 PM

Gentlemen, start your penguins!

mylegsareswollen on November 2, 2008 at 11:06 PM

I have vivid memories of Florida getting called at 7 in 2000, which depressed vote in the different time zone of the Panhandle,a GOP stronghold. I’ve always maintained that that early call was by design. In 2004, the MSM decided to wait until the actual votes came, rather than relying on the exit polls, because they looked like morons in 2000. However, I will bet that several major networks start calling states for Obambi BEFORE some states close their precincts based purely one early exit polls, which always list Democratic, due in large part to most Republicans having jobs.

My bet: if things in actual votes look positive for McCain early on, we will see states called way early for the One, in the attempt to suppress GOP votes in the midwest.

Physics Geek on November 2, 2008 at 11:30 PM

Yup, I am looking forward to temporary martial law as the lefties are rounded up and imprisoned, not 4 years of a socialist dictatorship. After the initial round up is over with, we can proceed to Round 2 in January and start the trials for Frank, Dodd, Obama, et al. for their multiple counts of fraud, embezzlement and other crimes. Damiano on November 2, 2008 at 4:54 PM

You are clearly an idealist.

The last roundup in this country was done by a democrat. Just ask the Japanese.

Mojave Mark on November 3, 2008 at 12:09 AM

I’ve been a silent spectator here for most of this election season. I come to hotair because it is a haven of sorts for people who believe in free-market economics, small government and democracy. I believe in all of those. The only way in which I differ from quite a few of you is that I’m halfway across the world, in India (no, I do not work in tech support, and no, I cannot and will not fix your computer :D) and cannot vote in this election of yours.

But I’m following the election very closely because the world seems to be at a tipping point, precariously balanced on a peak. On one side of the peak lie Capitalism and freedom, on the other side lie socialism and misery. The next president of the US will determine the direction the US takes, and let’s be honest, with a democrat controlled legislature, a president Obama could ram full-blown socialism down the world’s throat in less than a year. I’ve lived in a socialist country. Socialism destroyed my country for 45 years after we gained independence. But the last decade and a half, we’ve moved towards capitalism and free markets, and I’ve seen it work with my own eyes.

If the US gives up on free-markets, the world will follow suit. The US has been a beacon of freedom (economic and otherwise) for decades, and has served as an example for nations around the world. This election is about people who want to snuff that beacon. This is for the soul of the world.

I see many people here feeling despair at every little thing McCain or his campaign does. I see people here who scream that the media is in the tank, but accept that Obama is inevitable with the very next breath. I see people cribbing about holding their nose and voting for McCain, as if they’re doing others a favour.

WHAT THE FREAKING HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU?

If you’re giving up right now with two days to go, shame on you! You don’t deserve to be a pimple on George Washington’s behind!

And then I see people like ManlyRash, rallying the troops, so to speak. I cannot estimate the effect hotair has on the elections – nobody can, but understand this. The effect is very much there. I’ve learned more about Politics from this site (and Captain’s Quarters before that) than from all the major newspapers combined. And if you’re affecting my opinion all the way here in India, think of the effect you guys are having in your own country.

Don’t give up hope. Don’t sit idle in despair. Get up, get up, get up and fight with the old bastard. He’s suffered boatloads for you all. Do this to respect his sacrifice. Do this to respect those 5 years of freedom he gave up to fight for yours. I would be proud to vote for a man like him.

I’m going to repeat what ManlyRash has been saying for ages now – McCain’s going to win, and win big! Get off your butts and drag him across the line. Play your part in saving the world’s soul.

Jester on November 3, 2008 at 1:09 AM

Hey, we’re still workin’ out here in NV!!

Friday I spent 8 hours security detail with John Ratzenberger and Jon Voight, both dedicated, selfless, and generous gentlemen doing their part for McCain-Palin – Reno, Minden, and Carson City visits – along with Mitt Romney and local/state candidates.

Monday I’m back on security detail for the Gov. Plain event at the Reno Livestock arena, where one of the biggest, if not the biggest, rodeos is held.

WE ARE NOT YET DONE, Mr. Empty Suit, so don’t start measuring the drapes yet!

fred5678 on November 3, 2008 at 3:12 AM

Breaking News: Several MSM outlets are calling VA for Obama.

The polls don’t officially close for another 39 hrs., but it looks like McCain has no chance to overcome Obama’s lead.

Mr. Wednesday Night on November 3, 2008 at 3:44 AM

This is for the soul of the world.

Don’t give up hope. Don’t sit idle in despair. Get up, get up, get up and fight with the old bastard. He’s suffered boatloads for you all. Do this to respect his sacrifice. Do this to respect those 5 years of freedom he gave up to fight for yours. I would be proud to vote for a man like him.

Any way we can get Jester an absentee ballot?

McCain might be an old bastard but he’s OUR old bastard.

SicSemperTyrannus on November 3, 2008 at 9:39 AM

This is my first time on this site. So far, it strikes me as a good source for news (with a right bias). I’m always curious to know how the other side views things. That said, I’ve found certain posts rather amusing. The idea that Republicans fear this election could be stolen from them, seems absurd. First, there’s no need to steal an election, in which you have more vote. Second, apparently some introductions are in order… pot, kettle. Kettle, pot.

The other bit of irony, is the idea that if Obama wins, you should “brace yourself for one of the ugliest and most dangerous 4 years in American history that we will ever face”. I’d say this poster’s grasp on history is less than tenuous, but given that we’re currently living during the most dangerous 8 years we’ve ever faces, I’d have to surmise that it’s his grasp on reality that is tenuous.

dozneg on November 3, 2008 at 9:49 AM

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