How soon will we know on election night?

posted at 3:00 pm on November 2, 2008 by Allahpundit

Answer: Pretty soon, potentially. Via CNN, a rundown of when the polls in various battleground states close (all times ET):

7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
———————————–
9 p.m. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota
10 p.m. Nevada, Montana

I didn’t include Iowa because it’s not a battleground anymore, assuming it ever was, but that’s also a 10 p.m. close for what it’s worth.

The line is there because none of the states below it matter much unless Maverick’s come close to running the table in the states above it. Play around with CNN’s electoral map and you’ll see what I mean. Give him every last state from 9 p.m. on, then try to figure out how many pre-9 p.m. states he can lose and still reach 270. Unless I missed something, it boils down to this:

1. He can afford to lose any single state above the line, no matter which it is, so long as he wins all the others.

2. He can afford to lose any combination of Indiana, Virginia, and Missouri (but not all three), so long as he wins every other state above the line.

3. Under no circumstances can he afford to lose a combination of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. Two out of three is a must, plus every other state above the line. McCain currently trails in all three by anywhere from four to seven points, per the RCP state averages. (Fun fact: Given my assumptions, if Maverick wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, Obama wins Ohio, and they split Indiana and Missouri, it’s 269-269.)

What this means, given The One’s lead, is that each hour on Tuesday night operates almost like an elimination game. If McCain wins Indiana and Virginia, he survives and advances to the next round against Ohio and North Carolina. If he wins both of those, he moves on to the eastern regional championship in Pennsylvania and Florida. And if he wins both of those, he heads west for the Final Four Six. As I say, he can technically afford to lose one or two states early (depending upon which ones they are), but the bellwether omens will be grim if he’s dropped any battlegrounds before 8 p.m. And again, to win the election he’d almost certainly then have to win all six of those western states. If you believe PPP, not only does The One lead big in Colorado and New Mexico, but a majority of voters have already cast their ballots. Assuming that’s true, McCain’s margin of error above the line is virtually zero.

Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately. Here’s the latest battleground snapshot from Mason-Dixon. Every vote counts, swing-staters.


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It really depends on how late the Supreme Court is working that night.

Tommy_G on November 2, 2008 at 3:02 PM

Someone said mccain named names in his speech today. It was on Fox. Got video on that, AP?

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 3:02 PM

McCain’s got Ohio in the bag… trust me.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2008 at 3:03 PM

I still think if PA goes McCain, it’s celebration time early. If he can pull out NH, somehow, it’ll be a wipeout for McCain. We’ll see. I don’t drink, but I might start on tuesday.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 3:05 PM

It’ll be over by 11 PM EST. McCain wins handily. Bank on that.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Fun fact: Given my assumptions, if Maverick wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, Obama wins Ohio, and they split Indiana and Missouri, it’s 269-269.

Little known fact, in the case of a tie it goes to sudden death thumb wrestle.

Dash on November 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Despite all my reservations surrounding John McCain, who I’ve been deeply critical of…

I have voted absentee for the McCain/Palin ticket.

I’ve done my part. God help us.

/OH resident voter

HYTEAndy on November 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM

When Delaware goes McCain, everyone’s going to start drinking early!

Peri Winkle on November 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM

So….are we all going to a bar, or staying home on Tuesday?

hippie_chucker on November 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Ohio might not come in right away

Election results may not be in on Tuesday
By Josh Sweigart

Staff Writer

Friday, October 31, 2008

HAMILTON — Election officials say long lines and new rules could cause a lengthy wait before Ohioans will know on — or after — Tuesday who won local and national races.

Though exit polls and partial results may give an early sense of who will win the presidential race, Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner predicts statewide results won’t be in until after midnight Wednesday, Nov. 5, in an election one of her aides suggests will have a “potentially historic” turnout.

“It concerns me that we will not be able to produce election results possibly Tuesday night,” said Butler County Board of Elections Director Betty McGary.

William Amos on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

Since McCain is winning 40 states I say we will know very early.

Elizabetty on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

The end: The local GOP is trying frantically to get ANYONE to show up at McCain’s Pittsburgh rally tomorrow. I got three calls already today. I just cannot make it there tomorrow.

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

They’ll call this election 8am EST.

El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 3:09 PM

I didn’t include Iowa because it’s not a battleground anymore, assuming it ever was, but that’s also a 10 p.m. close for what it’s worth.

This poll is among 814 likely voters!
How can we determine that?!

jencab on November 2, 2008 at 3:10 PM

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

Well golly, I guess you Ohioans for McCain should just stay home on Tuesday *wink-wink*

James OK on November 2, 2008 at 3:10 PM

hippie_chucker on November 2, 2008 at 3:06 PM

Working 2pm-11pm Tuesday (CST) so it’ll be over before I get home. If you are gonna drive please give me a 15 minute headstart.

For all you Eeyore’s out there, on both sides, here is your new national anthem on Wednesday morning. (Sorry Doris, you know I luv ya!)

Wednesday in America

Limerick on November 2, 2008 at 3:10 PM

Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately

Allahpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:00 pm

Vodka’s in the freezer and the champagne in the fridge.

Kini on November 2, 2008 at 3:11 PM

In other words. Obama must win Red States of FL, OH, VA to even have a chace to win the election. Obama also must some how peel away a red state in the midwest and in the west. Obama’s biggest hope is in NM and possibly Iowa. If somehow Obama gets CO or NV McCain can still pull it out by taking PA, NH, Maine, MI, MN, WI. If Obama loses PA it is going to be a very very very long night for Obama and MSNBC. PA is the bellweather. If McCain is seen as winning the west and midwest my very well go for McCain as most people like to be on the bandwagon. Finally McCain has a hail mary in CA with the prop 8 ballot bringing in large amounts of conservative voters and the Obama turnout being depressed due to hyped media reports of “landslides” for Obama

See Allah, it really isn’t that hard to spin facts for your guy instead of for the guy you “say” you don’t want to win.

unseen on November 2, 2008 at 3:12 PM

I just cannot make it there tomorrow. – jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

Like you ever intended to. I’ll be ordering the Porterhouse for Two. I hope your Amex card will be able to withstand the hit, becuase I also love Tanqueray Ten martinis.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:13 PM

Since McCain is winning 40 states I say we will know very early.

There’s a thin line between optimism and delusion.

cy13 on November 2, 2008 at 3:13 PM

Wow.

You guys seem to be forgetting the army of lawyers.

This election will not be over on the the 4th, or the 5th…

Even if McCain blows Barry out of the water we’ll be living with this excruciating election at least a few more days than we had planned.

Brave New Litigious Society.

Dorvillian on November 2, 2008 at 3:15 PM

They’ll call this election 8am EST. – El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 3:09 PM

heh…and the exit polling will call for an Obama landslide. O man, Bambi is gonna be farked.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:15 PM

If McCain loses Pennsylvania by over 5 points, can we stop campaigning there in the future?

Speedwagon82 on November 2, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Sadly, Obama and the Democrats are about to finish the job that the Viet Cong started. Communism wins! It’s almost as if Bush wanted it that way from the beginning. Bush allowed the Dems to get completely out of control. They said and did anything and everything, without any political repercussions, for the past four years.

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:16 PM

After the lawsuits are settled. Al Gore showed us how.

tarpon on November 2, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Brave New Litigious Society. – Dorvillian on November 2, 2008 at 3:15 PM

Meh…let the shylocks litigate. Slam dunk for McCain. End of Bambi. And Rezko will sing like a farking canary.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:16 PM

TIPP: OBAMA 46.7%… MCCAIN 44.6%… NOT SURE 8.7%… http://www.ibdeditorials.com/series13.aspx?src=POLLTOPN

Tazz 55 on November 2, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Hasn’t the drive by media called it already?

grapeknutz on November 2, 2008 at 3:17 PM

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:16 PM

Make sure you vote for McCain, Jay. And contact all your friends, family and neighbors and be sure they do likewise. Make it happen. I want that Porterhouse cooked medium.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:17 PM

IBD Tipp: Obama +2 from +5 yesterday…this is the most accurate pollster of 2004.

Mac has reached his highest level in the poll, Obama, not so much.

joepub on November 2, 2008 at 3:17 PM

There’s a whole country between optimism and delusion. It’s called the United States of America. My country.

Peri Winkle on November 2, 2008 at 3:18 PM

I’m not telling Ohioans (of which I am one) to stay home and not vote for McCain. It’s just that I know the people of Ohio will come out to vote and they will pick John McCain.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2008 at 3:18 PM

If it’s close in Marion County, Indiana, then Mac wins.

CK MacLeod on November 2, 2008 at 3:19 PM

There’s a whole country between optimism and delusion. It’s called the United States of America. My country. – Peri Winkle on November 2, 2008 at 3:18 PM

And it will win on November 4, Peri. Get out the vote for John McCain.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:19 PM

The trolls are among us, friends.

jazz_piano on November 2, 2008 at 3:19 PM

I see McCain winning OH, NH, VA, WV, FL, PA, WI, MN, MO, NC, and CO.

The hail Mary is possible in CA because in early voting he was only down by 2 points or tied. I have even heard NJ might be flipped for McCain.

NM is hard to read because of the voter fraud impact.

I do not think we will know until Wednesday morning and it could be around 8 a.m. because of OH. Although if the hail Mary works in some state that could be irrelevant. LOL!

freeus on November 2, 2008 at 3:20 PM

They’ll call this election 8am EST.

El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 3:09 PM

Absolutely – the MSM will leak exit polls all day showing an Obama landslide, and then they will declare Obama the victor “officially” at 8 PM EST or sooner, all in the effort to suppress Republican turnout. They’ll apologize later if it turns out they were wrong, or, alternatively, “officially” announce that the election was stolen.

BTW, I didn’t look at the CNN link, but significant portions of Florida and Indiana are in the Central Time Zone, which further increases the media incentive to “call” the race early for The Messiah, while some of the polls are still open in both states.

Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:20 PM

(Fun fact: Given my assumptions, if Maverick wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, Obama wins Ohio, and they split Indiana and Missouri, it’s 269-269.)

In which case Mr. Cheney decides who our next president will be.

The thought of the Kos kiddies, Olbermann, C. Matthews, Europeans, media, HA lefties…

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:21 PM

I’m not telling Ohioans (of which I am one) to stay home and not vote for McCain. It’s just that I know the people of Ohio will come out to vote and they will pick John McCain. – MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2008 at 3:18 PM

Still, you can do your part. Call family, neighbors and friends who may not be inclined to vote. Get them to go and vote. Bring invalid and elderly neighbors to the polls.

Vote for the McCain of your choice…but VOTE!

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:21 PM

William Amos on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

I hope Ohio votes Brunner out of office in 2010; she seems to be utterly corrupts and doing everything she can to help the One. And the dems said Blackwell was bad. jeesh. I actually don’t think we’ll know very early b/c people are going to wait for the results from FL, VA, NC, PA and OH to come in. And that’ll take time. The legit networks probably won’t call until 80%+ of the vote is in. PSMBC might call early but who cares.

IR-MN on November 2, 2008 at 3:22 PM

America survived a civl war 2 world wars a great depression and Jimmy Carter we can survive Obama IF it comes to it and Im not giving up hope. Many ballots are provisional and I read that some are already being rejected in Florida

This is what is going to be the real battle

William Amos on November 2, 2008 at 3:22 PM

There’s a whole country between optimism and delusion. It’s called the United States of America. My country.

Not mine, though?

Didn’t say McCain wouldn’t win. Just that the idea that he will win 40 states is farfetched. If that makes me a troll, so be it.

cy13 on November 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:21 PM

No he does not. If its 269-269, the house decides. senate would pick the VP, presumably it’d be 50-50 and palin would be chosen by cheney.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM

BTW, I didn’t look at the CNN link, but significant portions of Florida and Indiana are in the Central Time Zone, which further increases the media incentive to “call” the race early for The Messiah, while some of the polls are still open in both states. – Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:20 PM

There will be a couple of ‘surprises’ in the northeast that will make them less than likely to call it early for Obama. Trust me on this.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Slightly off-topic:

Next line of media attempt to sway the election for Obama might be to ‘leak’ distorted exit polling (favoring Obama) in order to demoralize western voters.

7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri

So, that’s 4pm to 5pm Pacific, and we should be prepared to distribute accurate information around the Web, call and email friends in western states, etc.

I don’t mean to sound like a paranoid crackpot, I just really don’t trust the media anymore.

James OK on November 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Trust me, Ohioans will not let this state become Michigan blue. It will be Buckeye Scarlet red. The 2 times Ohio became Michigan blue (92 and 96) we had John Cooper in 2000 and 2004 and now in 2008 we have Jim Tressel.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM

They won’t call these states as soon as the polls close though. It’ll take a few hours at least. I think probably around 11 PM is when they’ll be able to call it for McCain, or maybe a little later than that.

eyedoc on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

I’m not telling Ohioans (of which I am one) to stay home and not vote for McCain. It’s just that I know the people of Ohio will come out to vote and they will pick John McCain.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 2, 2008 at 3:18 PM

Much rural territory in my state. I hope we clingerers realize what we mean to liberty in 2008.

Benjamin9 on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

McCain internals show IOWA and PENNSYLVANIA winnable.

GO VOTE!

SouthernGent on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

cy13 on November 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM

Well, cy13, if your pessimism (or realism, as the case may be) makes you a troll, AP would be, too, so at least you’d be in good company. (:

jazz_piano on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

Based on all the likely lawsuits we might still be second guessing the outcome over Turkey and dressing.

CommentGuy on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

The end: The local GOP is trying frantically to get ANYONE to show up at McCain’s Pittsburgh rally tomorrow. I got three calls already today. I just cannot make it there tomorrow.

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:07 PM

Jay12!

Still phone canvassing for McCain, or has Axelrod given you different marching orders?

Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

Lots of people on the same page here.

James OK on November 2, 2008 at 3:25 PM

They’d better let the Panhandle get done voting before the morons start calling the state for someone. If they don’t start announcing results until 8 EST, that’ll be okay for folks in our Panhandle Central Time zone to finish at the polls.

tree hugging sister on November 2, 2008 at 3:26 PM

They won’t call these states as soon as the polls close though. It’ll take a few hours at least. I think probably around 11 PM is when they’ll be able to call it for McCain, or maybe a little later than that.

eyedoc on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

I hope they wait till day light … gotta keep the rioters in the light of day. My NVG’s won’t be here till Wednesday.

Benjamin9 on November 2, 2008 at 3:27 PM

Why Allah can be really wrong:

IBD poll has it a 2.1% race with about 9% undecided

New polls in virgina has it a 3% race with 9% undecideds.

Using RCP AVGs in this election with polls being rigged, skewed, and flat out all over the place is beyond stupid. And shows a basic lack of math and/or logic.

The polls have an 8% democrativ tilt. Rasmueseen today chaged his weighting and gave an addtional 2% to more rep votes. Thus all of Rasmuseseen polls of last week are wrong. The fact that he has it a 5% shows in reality the race is closer to the IBD poll.

As far as the poll from Iowa it is not weighed and this tends to say yes it is still a battleground:

Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin plans to headline a rally Monday in Dubuque. The rally is scheduled for the Grand River Center, 500 Bell St., at about 2p.m. Doors open at noon.

As far as OH, PA, if thewy are the battlegrounds why is not Obama going to be there? And why instead his he trying to expand the map out west. He knows Pa and OH are lost to him.

unseen on November 2, 2008 at 3:27 PM

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:17 PM

How could I not vote for McCain? Hell, I went out and re-registered as a Democrat to hand Obama a resounding defeat in the Pennsylvania primary by voting for Hillary. I sent Limbaugh the information about PA registration requirements before Limbaugh even started Operation Chaos.

Lots of HA read my criticisms and take it to mean I’m a troll. I spent 20 years working in NYC. They just don’t understand what that means. I’ll never be a syncophant for anybody. I was in Times Square demonstrating FOR the Iraq War the day after half a million homos held their march down in the Village in early 2002. They just don’t understand what that means. “We Gave Peace A Chance, We Got 9/11″. I lost people. OK?

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:27 PM

Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

Good call, Realist. I’ve considered trying my hand a trolldom, but I think it must be difficult. It’s the language–tough to capture the right tone.

jazz_piano on November 2, 2008 at 3:27 PM

Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:20 PM

Thats why they list FL as an 8pm poll closing; cuz that’ll be 7 in the panhandle. 7pm is poll closing time in FL. The mistake they made in 2000 was not realizing this, so they moved FL to Gore before the panhandle (very republican) polls closed, which suppressed turnout.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 3:28 PM

BTW, I didn’t look at the CNN link, but significant portions of Florida and Indiana are in the Central Time Zone, which further increases the media incentive to “call” the race early for The Messiah, while some of the polls are still open in both states. – Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:20 PM

There will be a couple of ’surprises’ in the northeast that will make them less than likely to call it early for Obama. Trust me on this.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM

As they say in Russian, “Ya nadeyus.” (I hope…)

Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:29 PM

Here’s the latest battleground snapshot from Mason-Dixon. Every vote counts, swing-staters.

Biggest spread was 4%. Too close to call. Asking wife to pick up some St. Arnolds.

Weight of Glory on November 2, 2008 at 3:30 PM

Virginia is now a “tossup” on RCP from “Lean Obama”.

SouthernGent on November 2, 2008 at 3:30 PM

lorien, you’re right. I stand corrected.

However, it c/b McCain/Biden.

Let’s hope we don’t have to drag the country through this.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:31 PM

I hope Ohio votes Brunner out of office in 2010;

Considering she said THIS

JENNIFER BRUNNER:
So, we think there are some excellent safeguards built into the law, but our own experience with ACORN in Ohio is there have been some problems in the past, but the person who we work with, when there are questions from ACORN is Katy Gall, who is a very experienced and conscientious, and we’ve had nothing but good experiences working with her.

William Amos on November 2, 2008 at 3:32 PM

Hey it’s daylight savings time for you guys. Redistribution of Sunlight.

Tuesday evening is not coming fast enough.

Kini on November 2, 2008 at 3:32 PM

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:31 PM

Oh I dunno. I wouldn’t mind 4 years of “selected not elected” and this time it being accurate. And Palin trying to backstab Obama at every opportunity.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 3:34 PM

As they say in Russian, “Ya nadeyus.” (I hope…) – Realist on November 2, 2008 at 3:29 PM

count on it.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:34 PM

They won’t call these states as soon as the polls close though. It’ll take a few hours at least. I think probably around 11 PM is when they’ll be able to call it for McCain, or maybe a little later than that.

eyedoc on November 2, 2008 at 3:24 PM

If McCain wins any of the eastern swing states where the polls close first (esp. PA and VA), the media’s line will be “too close to call” for as long as possible until they are forced to call it for McCain.

In contrast, any states Obama wins will be called as soon as possible so as to give the impression of Inevitable Victory as they tally up the EVs throughout the night.

So be on the lookout for “too close to call” which is code for “looks bad for Obama.”

Missy on November 2, 2008 at 3:34 PM

Allahpundit, remember me?

The guy you was defending your political analysis skills the other day on Ace’s? And you helped me get in touch with Erik to reactivate my account and recover my password?

Thank you.

But at the same time, chill, really:

“Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately.”

You were right in 2006. But remember 2004 when the exit polls called it for Kerry. Or 2000 when the polls went back and forth calling it for everyone but Elmer Fudd.

Christoph on November 2, 2008 at 3:35 PM

It takes time to count the votes people! Don’t forget 2000, they called Florida early for Gore and had to take it back!! We’re not going to know for a while.

Think about it:
Obama is still asking for donations. He just sent me an email last night asking for $30. EDIT: Checked my email again, he just asked for $5 today.

Why would he be asking for money with two days left? Why is he traveling all over the map? He knows its game time and he doesn’t have 270 votes. He is searching in every crack, under every couch, for 270, cuz he can’t find it.

People are going to say what they’re going to say, but they’re going to vote McCain once they’re in the booth.

My Projections for McCain
7 p.m. Indiana [+], Virginia [?]
7:30 p.m. Ohio [+], North Carolina [+]
8 p.m. Pennsylvania [+], Florida [+], Missouri [+]
———————————–
9 p.m. Colorado [+], New Mexico [-], Arizona [+], North Dakota [+]
10 p.m. Nevada [?], Montana [+]

El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 3:35 PM

Well, as I said before, I’m not going to pay much attention to who wins the popular vote. It will be a very narrow margin, narrow enough that there won’t be too big an outcry if the loser is elected in December (especially if it’s Obama).

CherokeeJack on November 2, 2008 at 3:36 PM

* guy you = guy who

Christoph on November 2, 2008 at 3:36 PM

VOTERS!

DO NOT fall for ANY network “CALLING” a state for OBAMA!

Remember they called Florida for GORE before the polls closed in the PANHANDLE and it costs the Republicans votes in that area.

DO NOT BELIEVE THE NETWORKS. THEY ARE IN THE TANK FOR OBAMA.

originalpechanga on November 2, 2008 at 3:36 PM

Take a look at this article from Pew on “racial slippage” and non-response in pre-election polling. Note especially the results in the first table.

RedWinged Blackbird on November 2, 2008 at 3:36 PM

It would be a dream of mine to encounter Allah at some function. Even though we don’t know what he looks like, I’m confident he sounds like a whiner and smells like a loser. I wouldn’t harm him. Just pour a drink in his lap for all of the times he chooses to piss on the folks who read this site’s Cheerios.

PLEASE send your resume to Huffington Post. It’s not that we don’t want to hear the Devil’s advocate sometimes. It’s just that no troll could suck the life out of chat room like this douche. He’s GOT to be Michelle’s cousin or something.

Sugar Land on November 2, 2008 at 3:37 PM

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:27 PM

Then give it your all, Jay. Pull out all the stops, ’cause it ain’t for Mac…it’s for America.

Get out that vote. Make it happen. And never lose the faith.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:37 PM

The 7:30 time slot for Ohio will not be correct. I guarandamtee you that some dopey judge (probably in Cleveland) will order that the poll be open till 9:00 so that everyone has the opportunity to vote. It happens every time.

ohiorebel on November 2, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Someone said mccain named names in his speech today. It was on Fox. Got video on that, AP?

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 3:02 PM

of course not, silly. It makes McCain look good.

If FL, OH, and PA go for McCain, they will all be “too close to call” at midnight.

If that is the case, it’s a McCain blowout victory. The exit polls will all show 20 point Obama blowouts, so don’t even tune in until midnight eastern time.

funky chicken on November 2, 2008 at 3:38 PM

After working phones at our Fayetteville NC RC office, I’m more confident. I had a lot of positive McCain and Dole supporters. Few Obamas. I would bet it ran 70 percent McCain on the lists I was given.

hawkdriver on November 2, 2008 at 3:38 PM

Sugar Land on November 2, 2008 at 3:37 PM

If you spent half as much time fighting for McCain as you spent whining about Allah, Mac would be 20 points ahead in the polls. Allah is not running for president, McCain is.

So get out there and fight!

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:39 PM

In which case Mr. Cheney decides who our next president will be.

The thought of the Kos kiddies, Olbermann, C. Matthews, Europeans, media, HA lefties…

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:21 PM

Not exactly.

Because we have a tie on Election Day doesn’t mean that the election is tied. The electors actually cast their votes on December 15th. Only half of the states actually require their electors to vote for the guy who won the popular vote. If an elector decides to switch, there’s no longer a tie.

Here’s where it gets fun: If the tie isn’t broken by an elector switching, Congress picks. Congress meets on January 6, 2009 to count the votes. If it’s still tied, the new — not old — Congress decides. The House elects the P (Obama) and the Senate (likely to be even more Democratic) would elect the VP (Biden).

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:39 PM

For LegendHasit:

http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=211423

funky chicken on November 2, 2008 at 3:39 PM

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:37 PM

I’m a lot older now, but I still know the streets.

I came from sh!t, and I can go BACK to sh!t.

jay12 on November 2, 2008 at 3:41 PM

Oh I dunno. I wouldn’t mind 4 years of “selected not elected” and this time it being accurate. And Palin trying to backstab Obama at every opportunity.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2008 at 3:34 PM

In the link I provided they say that the new House/Senate decide, and that it c/b McCain/Biden, due to this

Many Democrats wrongly think that because we hold the edge in the House of Representatives that a 269-269 scenario is an automatic win for the Democrats. Not so. The House of Representatives does indeed choose the President, but by implementing the little known “unit rule”. This means each House Delegation from each state will have one vote. So the 53 member delegation of California will have the same vote as the one member delegation from Wyoming or Alaska. And remember this is the new Congress that will vote on this.

I hope we don’t have to worry about it, interesting as it is to learn about the unique, and very remote, possibility.

May our MR be right and it be over at 11:00p.m EST.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:42 PM

El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 3:35 PM

Based on what I’ve seen, put Virginia in McCain’s column. We have a lot of HotAirHeads in VA and they are going to pull it out for J-Mac.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:42 PM

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:39 PM

Thanks ap – we’re figuring it out, and learning. Hoping that we won’t have to worry about it.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:43 PM

Over by midnight, or over 48 hours later. I doubt there will be any middle ground. If it’s the latter, things could get really ugly.

michaelo on November 2, 2008 at 3:43 PM

ManlyRash???
Dude, I’ve donated (near max) to McCain/Palin, plus to the RNC. I’ve got signs in my yards, (that I’ve run outside and chased Obamaphiles from) and stickers on my vehicles. I’ve worn both “Our Governor has more experience than your Senator” and “I am Joe the Plumber” shirts in public for a few weeks. I’ve also been “in the face” of the village idiots in my neighborhood supporting their favorite Marxist.
So worry about yourself.

Sugar Land on November 2, 2008 at 3:44 PM

Based on what I’ve seen, put Virginia in McCain’s column. We have a lot of HotAirHeads in VA and they are going to pull it out for J-Mac.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:42 PM

Yea, I feel good about Virginia too.

El_Terrible on November 2, 2008 at 3:44 PM

The MSM will once again pretend that the polls in Florida shut down at 7:00pm. “Oops, we forgot about the panhandle and this whole new concept of the Central Time Zone. Well, even with the panhandle going totally for McCain, there isn’t much of a chance that it would make a difference according to our exit polls in the important part of the state……

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11022008/photos/news004a.jpg

The election will be called at 7:00pm EST + 1 second, especially by NBC who already have their exit polls completed. I can’t imagine any Republican believing any of the reports to stop them from voting because it is a lost cause. Not that the media won’t try it……

JeffinOrlando on November 2, 2008 at 3:45 PM

Sugar Land on November 2, 2008 at 3:37 PM

Well, to be fair, Allah did call us turds on one post, but I digress.

I wouldn’t be so hard on Allah though. He is afterall, living in a city of liberal nutcases and that can have a profound effect on ones view of life in the world. That world that exist past the Hudson river, the Throgs Neck, Verrazano or Triborough bridges.

Kini on November 2, 2008 at 3:46 PM

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:39 PM

Interestingly enough, they have to follow the “unit rule“. It would comlplicate things tremendously.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:47 PM

Hoping that we won’t have to worry about it.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 3:43 PM

I don’t think we will. I believe it’s only happened once in history — in 1800.

amerpundit on November 2, 2008 at 3:47 PM

FL is gonna go for McCain. But the MSM won’t let you know until midnight eastern time.

If any of you are technically literate, here’s the original video from the SF Gate website of Obama promising to bankrupt the coal industry and make electricity rates skyrocket.

Can anybody dowload it and save it in case it disappears?

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2008/01/20/EDIAUHASH.DTL&o=0

funky chicken on November 2, 2008 at 3:47 PM

I don’t see the polls closing on time this year.

Despite all the early voting, turnout is going to be massive on Election Day. The polls, especially in states like Pennsylvania and Virginia, will end up staying open longer and longer.

We *MAY* get stations calling states based on exit polling in some states as the official poll-closing time arrives — but I’d guess the news people are going to be a bit wary of calling any close states too early, with the crazy polling we’ve been having all season.

I’d be surprised if we know the results of your “above-the-line” states before ten or eleven Eastern. And as others have pointed out… Ohio could take days, and the news anchors won’t call anything for McCain until it’s obvious from *real* returns.

I plan on spending a long evening in front of the TV and here.

ClintACK on November 2, 2008 at 3:48 PM

So worry about yourself. – Sugar Land on November 2, 2008 at 3:44 PM

I’m not worried. McCain will win. And you have done a yeoman’s job. Thank you for your efforts. Keep on fighting, my friend. We will win this.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 3:48 PM

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