CBS poll picks wrong president … from 2004

posted at 1:00 pm on November 2, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

It’s difficult to know which polls to trust.  We’ve seen wild swings in many of them, and the only point of agreement between any of them is that none of them show the same electorate.  However, when selecting a poll for its predictive value in 2008, one can probably disregard one that still gets 2004 wrong.  The CBS poll released yesterday showing an 11-point lead for Barack Obama also picks John Kerry as the winner in the last election, at least among early voters (page 2):

2004 vote:    Early            Likely
Bush……………40%…………..40%
Kerry…………..45……………..40

This shows two significant problems.  First, Bush beat Kerry by three points, which makes this a little less valuable as a predictive tool.  Second, how did CBS determine “likely voters”?  In their methodology, they show only 9% of their sample as new voters, but the combined total of Bush and Kerry voters only comes to 80%.  Where did the other 11% go?  Into the ether?  And why would Bush voters be less likely to vote in 2008 than in 2004 (the missing 3%)?

It’s not the only problem in this poll.  As it does in most polls, CBS far oversampled Democrats.  The party-identification split on Democrats to Republicans has a 13-point gap, 41% to 28% respectively, among likely voters.  With most people predicting a gap closer to 3-5%, CBS gives Democrats at least an extra 8% in the sample — which accounts for most of Obama’s lead, apart from the other problems in this survey.

Polls are always an educated guess at the best of times.  When a poll has trouble predicting the outcome of an election from four years earlier, it’s safe to ignore it. (via Reliapundit)


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Pollsters and media are coming in to a rude awakening.

So much heads asploding.

Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:05 PM

McCain may really be up by 20% or more, and here’s why:

The “hang-up” percentage, or people who refuse to be polled, is over 85%, which is historically high. This means there is no way to assume the sample is statistically valid. It all depends on the make-up of the 85%. So we have to figure out the motives for the hang-ups. Now we’re not talking probability and statistics, by forensic psychology.

Why would anyone not want to participate in a telephone poll? My guesses:

1. More McCain supporters feel pressure to justify themselves than Obama supporters, so this could account for some not to want to discuss who they support.
2. Traditional Democrat voters may not want to verbally admit they’ll be the first in several generations in their families not to vote Democrat.
3. Closet racists will not “come out” to a mere pollster. They may want to take part in the poll, or even falsely claim to be Obama supporters.
4. They may be too busy working, especially small businessmen who work from home, who are mostly Republicans.

That probably accounts for the vast majority of those hang-ups. How do those poll results look to you now? Instead of Obama ahead by 1 to 3%, he might really be behind by 20-30%!

stonemeister on November 2, 2008 at 1:05 PM

Polls are always an educated guess at the best of times. When a poll has trouble predicting the outcome of an election from four years earlier, it’s safe to ignore it.

Yeppers, Ed. And thank you, thank you, thank you for this sobering analysis.

Ignore the Drive-Bys, folks. This election is way, WAY closer than even we imagine.

Now it’s up to us to win it for Mac and win it for America. Let’s make it happen. Let’s roll…

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 1:06 PM

That probably accounts for the vast majority of those hang-ups. How do those poll results look to you now? Instead of Obama ahead by 1 to 3%, he might really be behind by 20-30%! – stonemeister on November 2, 2008 at 1:05 PM

Your lips to God’s ear, stonemeister!

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 1:07 PM

Fake but accurate!

{someone had to say it}

In fact most of the polls oversample Democrats and Obama’s lead is usually the same as the oversample. hmmmmmm.

Kind of makes you wonder about those Independents.

Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 1:08 PM

They’re making it all up as they go along. It’s quite amusing to behold actually.

SouthernGent on November 2, 2008 at 1:08 PM

According to a letter posted on Hillbuzz that Rush spoke about on Thurs and Friday indicates the Obama campaign has paid pollsters to up the averages. If you check you will see that is exactly what is happening.

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/confession-of-an-obama-blogger-by-sarah-p-as-posted-to-this-site/

An insider of the Obama Campaign’s confession

Then her comment on that post later…
“How about the polls, how were the skewed?”

suzieviews on November 2, 2008 at 1:09 PM

An excerpt from a confession from an insider in the Obama campaign:

How about the polls, how were the skewed? Take a look at the internals, always. But, above that think about something. How wold a polling company get paid? How would this be a viable business just on its own? They get paid by networks, ever notice how every two hours there is a pollster being interviewed and talking about his polls. Ever notice, the polls one day will have Barack Obama leading by 12, then the next day leading by 5, then the next day up to 8. How is that possible? Think about just one poll, that has Barack up 13 points, how badly would that destroy the average? Don’t you think it would be pretty easy to put together a few Pollsters to stick a few high polls up to throw off the average? This then makes other pollsters question their techniques, then they question the electorate and devise some kind of formula. They see their numbers as say Barack Obama up by 3, but they see another poll with Barack Obama up 13. They then formulate that there is problem, maybe some truth in the 13 poll, but that its overly exaggerated and that their poll is maybe too conservative so they then take their 3 and bump it up to say a 5-6. Its to split the difference, and the thought is that John Mccain doesn’t have the enthusiasm that Barack Obama does, so they give a weight adjustment that favors the democrat.

Lets just keep this simple, the race is 2-3 points in favor of Barack Obama. This is the internal truth. However, there is strong internal fear that there is no more votes left for him to pick up. Currently we see him at only 46% of the vote. Maybe 48% maximum.

If that wasn’t the truth, if all the polls were correct. Then why would there be a need for a 30 minute spot on all the networks. The goal from now and until next tuesday is to pick up 2 more percentage points. That is the goal. That is what the campaign is working on right now. That is the focus.

suzieviews on November 2, 2008 at 1:12 PM

stonemeister:

I think there is another reason. They don’t trust strangers who call them on the phone and ask them questions. Now that we have caller ID and message machines and all that no one has to wonder who is calling and the truth is if it is someone political a lot of people will just ignore them.

I have caller ID and an answering machine. If someone calls and I do not recognize them on ID, I don’t answer. And polsters do not talk to machines.

Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 1:13 PM

It was very scientific, CBS just asked ACORN to take the poll…

right2bright on November 2, 2008 at 1:14 PM

I have caller ID and an answering machine. If someone calls and I do not recognize them on ID, I don’t answer. And polsters do not talk to machines.

Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 1:13 PM

And you vote Republican. Think Dems think like you, and don’t answer the phone?

stonemeister on November 2, 2008 at 1:15 PM

stonemeister:

Some are like me. But I know some older folks who live in fear of losing their social security, who believe the ads that Obama out saying McCAin will cut their benefits and they talk to anyone who calls them.

I also know some young people who always answer their phone, they live on their phones.

Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 1:19 PM

Just heard McCain sai “Sen. Obama is running for Redistributor in Chief – I’m running for Commander in Chief”.

“We’re a couple of points behind in Pennsylvania…my friends, the Mac is back”.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:22 PM

First executive order “We will not allow the World Series to be delayed…” :)

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:22 PM

One point to consider about the hangup rate is that this has been a very very long election cycle and folks are just plain tired of it. Registered voters with landlines have probably been called by pollsters or campaigns 9 or 10 times already this election cycle and they’re tired of it.

When I go to the Virginia HQ and make calls, I get hung up on A LOT. Also a lot of republicans who are voting for McCain will say things like “Yes, I’m voting for McCain. Now quit calling me.”

I dunno how many dems won’t answer, or hang up, but I can say for sure from experience that a lot of republicans do.

t.ferg on November 2, 2008 at 1:23 PM

Like I said In Allahs Gallup shows Obama up 70/30 post, when Allah posts a down post Ed usually follows up with a positive one. Ed (good cop) Allah (bad cop).

So, Allah says that McCains skit:

the material’s predictably weak and both segments boil down to how badly he’s losing

I always know to hang tight, that an Ed post is sure to follow with positive news for a Sunny Sunday morning. And what do you know? Ed follows with 2 of them.

Thanks Ed!

broker1 on November 2, 2008 at 1:24 PM

Can’t shake the feeling we are about to be witness to the fooling of most of the people at exactly the sight time…

Bruno Strozek on November 2, 2008 at 1:24 PM

The media said yesterday “age is showing on McCain…he looks tired” – well, I’m looking at him. He’s full of energy and he looks just fine.

“Have courage and fight…fight for America”.

Fight, indeed. She is still worth it. A greater love there shouldn’t be. Without her all is nothing.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:24 PM

t.ferg on November 2, 2008 at 1:23 PM

I agree. People are just dead tired with the election, since it has been going on for two years.

Someone on Hannity and Foams last night said that there has been more polling done in Octoboer than there was the entire election in 2004.

They’ve overpolling people immensely.

Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:25 PM

stonemeister on November 2, 2008 at 1:15 PM

Stonemeister. I would love to believe that your spread is accurate, although I am more inclined to believe dead-heat to McCain +2-5%.

This is something that is totally anecdotal but it’s worth pondering. The weekly AOL Hot Seat Poll. For 4 out of the 5 weeks McCain has been consistently winning by a minimum of 55% of those voting, which total about 150-200,000 or so votes each week.

A couple of things to bear in mind: 1-AOL is not exactly Republican friendly, 2-you can only vote once a week, even if you have multiple screen names, 3-if nothing else, it is great to see virtually every state red.

I’m not saying this is a predictor of anything, but it sure makes me feel good to see it. We’ll see how this pans out. In the meantime…

VOTE REPUBLICAN/CONSERVATIVE DOWN THE LINE.
SAVE THE COUNTRY.
SAVE YOURSELF.
MCCAIN-PALIN VICTORY ’08

J.J. Sefton on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM

Heh, liberal consultant (Davis) is nervous about Pennsylvania – just heard from the lips of no other than Chris Wallace.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM

Correction

Just heard McCain say “Sen. Obama is running for Redistributor in Chief – I’m running for Commander in Chief”.

Pollsters will be fired in droves after Nov. 5th. May the rip, along with our ‘brilliant’ media.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:29 PM

It’s difficult to know which polls to trust.

Ummmmmmmmmmmm……….. no it’s not. Don’t trust any of them.

Seven Percent Solution on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

Heh, liberal consultant (Davis) is nervous about Pennsylvania – just heard from the lips of no other than Chris Wallace.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM

The fact that Obama has to go back into these states that he supposedly had a sure thing–Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado–in these last few days tells me that they’re fretting big time that they’re not so much a sure thing.

Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

I also know some young people who always answer their phone, they live on their phones.

Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 1:19 PM

True, but that are cell phones not land line and they don’t poll cells. The lack of land line affect any poll sample of the 18-25 age.

tjexcite on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

Heh, liberal consultant (Davis) is nervous about Pennsylvania – just heard from the lips of no other than Chris Wallace.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM

The fact that Obama has to go back into these states that he supposedly had a sure thing–Iowa, Pennsylvania, Colorado–in these last few days tells me that they’re fretting big time that they’re not so much a sure thing.

Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

He’s even spending money on ads in California, of all places!

Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

“Have courage and fight…fight for America”.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 1:24 PM

America,

These boys fought for you. Will you fight for them? What kind of America are you going to bring them home to? Your choice.

Limerick on November 2, 2008 at 1:31 PM

I have caller ID and an answering machine. If someone calls and I do not recognize them on ID, I don’t answer. And polsters do not talk to machines.

Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 1:13 PM

Ditto, which makes me feel a little guilty about working the phone bank. Still …

rightwingprof on November 2, 2008 at 1:33 PM

He’s even spending money on ads in California, of all places!

Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

I said a few times after McCain made it through the primaries that it would not surprise me if he even won Cali.

Those 55 EVs w/b the ultimate gift to Ronald Reagan, and so much he stood for, post mortem.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 12:38 PM

Thank you, Ed!

Here’s my prediction which I make with 100% certainty – unlike the polls:

If you make more than $42K per year and want to keep your taxes low, VOTE and we will win.

If you don’t want America to become another socialist European state, VOTE and we will win.

If you don’t want to see retiring Supreme Court justices replaced with liberal legislators, VOTE and we will win.

If you don’t believe that Iran is a tiny country, VOTE and we will win.

If you want to drill now, baby, VOTE and we will win.

If you prefer to say God Bless America instead of GD America, VOTE and we will win.

If you want a real leader, not a community organizer, VOTE and we will win.

If you’d like to taste some sweet media schadenfreude, VOTE and we will win.

If you’d like to see ACORN prosecuted, VOTE and we will win.

If you’d like to see ex-Marine Murtha forcefully retired, VOTE and we will win.

If you live in a red state, VOTE and we will win.

If you live in a purple state, VOTE and we will win.

If you live in a blue state, it is still your civic duty to VOTE, and if you do we will win.

God helps those that help themselves. So VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE McCain/Palin!

James OK on November 2, 2008 at 12:39 PM

My 55 EVs comment jumped on top of the list – computer masters at HA might want to look into yer clocks.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 12:41 PM

He’s even spending money on ads in California, of all places! – Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

He’s on the ropes. Let’s help Mac deliver the knock-out punch on Nov 4.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 12:43 PM

Ed, the CBS poll is notoriously bad, but your analysis here is not a reason why.

The sample size was 1120, of which 20% were early voters. So the 45%/40% Kerry/Bush 2004 split is from among 200+ people; the statistical noise in such a small sample is large enough that this difference from what actually happened is meaningless. Similarly, the 40%/40% split among likely voters is within the margin of error given the sample size.

You can always expect subsamples within a poll to be off by somewhat large margins, and this doesn’t invalidate the poll in any way. These differences average out over the full poll sample. For example, if you took ten different subsamples (stay-at-home moms, first-time voters, men who own motorcycles, etc.) each one might be off by 10% or more from reality, but over the full poll sample this averages out. All you have to do is look at whether the difference is statistically significant, which the numbers you point to are not.

That being said, CBS is a poor poll, as you can see for example from 538’s analysis: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings. (I know, I know, he’s a liberal shill, you can’t trust anything he says, but in this case his analysis agrees with you.)

tneloms on November 2, 2008 at 12:44 PM

Can’t shake the feeling we are about to be witness to the fooling of most of the people at exactly the sight time… – Bruno Strozek on November 2, 2008 at 1:24 PM

Me either. The Obamabots are going to look at the margin of Dear Leader’s defeat and start sobbing, “But…but…you PROMISED you would win! You promised…you promised.”

Never will schadenfreude – that most delectible of German dishes – taste as yummy as it will on election night.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 12:46 PM

He’s even spending money on ads in California, of all places!

Enoxo on November 2, 2008 at 1:30 PM

I said a few times after McCain made it through the primaries that it would not surprise me if he even won Cali.

Those 55 EVs w/b the ultimate gift to Ronald Reagan, and so much he stood for, post mortem. May it be so.

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 12:50 PM

Did someone break the comments? My last post ended up at the top.

James OK on November 2, 2008 at 12:52 PM

The IBD/TIPP poll, most accurate of ’04, has the race today at:

Obama 46.7, McCain 44.6, Undecided 8.7

Most serious analysts – even Dems – believe that Mav should get most of the undecideds, especially since most of them were Mav voters prior to the financial meltdown, and appear to come from Mav-favorable constituencies (bitterly clinging white guys, for instance).

Movement in the poll strongly suggests a good Mac day despite the usual disadvantages of weekend polling, and the inclusion in the poll of Halloween (likely unfavorable to Rs).

In short, unless there’s someting doubly unexpected going on – an under the surface Obama surge beneath the McCain surge – that 2.1% O lead is a dead heat or BETTER for McCain.

CK MacLeod on November 2, 2008 at 12:54 PM

I think that Daylight Savings may be screwing up the posting order here, btw.

CK MacLeod on November 2, 2008 at 12:55 PM

In fact, I’m now sure that Daylight Savings or something has screwed up the posting order here! Alert the Webmaster! (Probably some internal clock or software set before the date was shifted, in conflict with some other clock adjusted later.)

CK MacLeod on November 2, 2008 at 12:57 PM

Never will schadenfreude – that most delectible of German dishes – taste as yummy as it will on election night.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 12:46 PM

Mhhhhhh

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2008 at 12:58 PM

Beware self-fulfilling prophesies.
Ignore the polls.

Disturb the Universe on November 2, 2008 at 1:02 PM

J.J. Sefton on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM

The AOL poll pretty much confirms my theory. This poll has zero hang-ups, and therefore leans heavily toward McCain, even though their demographics are (typically) heavily Democrat.

I think this will be a blowout for McCain!

stonemeister on November 2, 2008 at 1:04 PM

James OK on November 2, 2008 at 12:39 PM

That was an excellent post! God bless you, James, and keep up the good work.

Let’s make it happen for McCain, folks! Let’s make it happen!

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 1:06 PM

See…BS.

’nuff said.

:-)

-Dave

Dave R. on November 2, 2008 at 1:06 PM

Wow, that was strange! The following post showed up BEFORE the post I was responding to! Here it is again:

J.J. Sefton on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM

The AOL poll pretty much confirms my theory. This poll has zero hang-ups, and therefore leans heavily toward McCain, even though their demographics are (typically) heavily Democrat.

I think this will be a blowout for McCain!

stonemeister on November 2, 2008 at 1:06 PM

I think we need a correction here. The numbers regarding Kerry are among early voters in 2004.

starflyer on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 PM

I think that Daylight Savings may be screwing up the posting order here, btw.

CK MacLeod on November 2, 2008 at 12:55 PM

Man, I thought my cheese had slid off my cracker, I didn’t know what was going on. heh

abinitioadinfinitum on November 2, 2008 at 1:35 PM

People have such short memories, how a bout a picture to describe the Liberal MSM and the “Polls” really work…..

Enjoy the trip down memory lane……

Seven Percent Solution on November 2, 2008 at 1:51 PM

The only poll that had it right – 2 apart…

Entelechy on November 2, 2008 at 2:00 PM

Yep. Every morning before I read the news, I google up the last election’s polls for the corresponding day.

Makes me smile…

Joan of Argghh on November 2, 2008 at 2:50 PM

Based on the margins for error the polls have demonstrated in the past few presidential cycles, I predict:

Obama 46%
McCain 52%
Other 2%

Of course this is when all the dust finally settles from the recounts and legal wrangling in Ohio…

Ace ODale on November 2, 2008 at 3:29 PM

Let there be no doubt that this election is a referendum on Obama as portrayed by his paid and unpaid media sources.
.
On one hand you have Obama the image. Cool, self assured, popular, he is as smooth as silk. He always seems to have a reasonable and compassionate opinion on every subject. It is easy to predict this opinion because it is always the one calculated to be the least offensive to the majority of voters. Let’s say 95% of voters, for example.
.
On the other hand, you have the voters’ perception of the various media sources. It has become clear that Sarah Palin’s performance during her interview with Katie Couric was a turning point for the McCain campaign. The impact of this one event has me worried that more voters still get their news from the old media than I had previously imagined.
.
This old media legacy also reared its head during the 2006 election, though I think that the individual matchups was also a major factor.
.
You won’t find the real Obama on broadcast TV or in the weekly newsmagazines, but he is out there if you want to find him. Read his own words in context to find out what he really did for the nine years as an elected official.
.
I really don’t know who will win. It is nice, however, that we get a chance to calibrate the media’s effectiveness every four years.

Hildegrim on November 2, 2008 at 4:09 PM

I scattered the path between a local bus stop and a voting center with banana peels.

marklmail on November 2, 2008 at 4:57 PM

I was listening to David Gregory of all people on MTP, and he said of the undecideds that if obama has not closed the deal on them, he probably won’t and most would go to McCain

ConservativePartyNow on November 2, 2008 at 5:05 PM

ManlyRash…you bet!

If everyone had the same reaction I had to obama when i first saw him (revulsion to a swarmy, phoney, shuck and jiver), he wouldn’t be in the race at all. I got a womanly rash from just the sight of him ;=).

Christine on November 2, 2008 at 5:16 PM

Based on the margins for error the polls have demonstrated in the past few presidential cycles, I predict:
Obama 46%
McCain 52%
Other 2%
Of course this is when all the dust finally settles from the recounts and legal wrangling in Ohio… (emphasis mine)
Ace ODale: you nailed it!

Christine on November 2, 2008 at 5:18 PM

If that wasn’t the truth, if all the polls were correct. Then why would there be a need for a 30 minute spot on all the networks.

Because he could, and his ego demanded it. It’s not like he spent his money for it.

Since pretty much every poll is showing Obama up, he probably is. But the only poll that matters is the one from November 4. Telephone votes don’t count. Make sure you and everyone you know gets out and votes the right way. The odds are against us, but it ain’t over yet.

xblade on November 2, 2008 at 5:45 PM

If everyone had the same reaction I had to obama when i first saw him (revulsion to a swarmy, phoney, shuck and jiver), he wouldn’t be in the race at all. I got a womanly rash from just the sight of him ;=). – Christine on November 2, 2008 at 5:16 PM

LOL. Take care of that womanly rash and I’ll take care f my manly rash. In the meantime, fight. Stand up and fight. Fight like this is the battle of our lives – because it is. Call your family, your friends, your neighbors. Tell them to vote for McCain and vote for America.

Make it happen, Christine.

ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 6:12 PM

I’ve been a silent spectator here for most of this election season. I come to hotair because it is a haven of sorts for people who believe in free-market economics, small government and democracy. I believe in all of those. The only way in which I differ from quite a few of you is that I’m halfway across the world, in India (no, I do not work in tech support, and no, I cannot and will not fix your computer :D) and cannot vote in this election of yours.

But I’m following the election very closely because the world seems to be at a tipping point, precariously balanced on a peak. On one side of the peak lie Capitalism and freedom, on the other side lie socialism and misery. The next president of the US will determine the direction the US takes, and let’s be honest, with a democrat controlled legislature, a president Obama could ram full-blown socialism down the world’s throat in less than a year. I’ve lived in a socialist country. Socialism destroyed my country for 45 years after we gained independence. But the last decade and a half, we’ve moved towards capitalism and free markets, and I’ve seen it work with my own eyes.

If the US gives up on free-markets, the world will follow suit. The US has been a beacon of freedom (economic and otherwise) for decades, and has served as an example for nations around the world. This election is about people who want to snuff that beacon. This is for the soul of the world.

I see many people here feeling despair at every little thing McCain or his campaign does. I see people here who scream that the media is in the tank, but accept that Obama is inevitable with the very next breath. I see people cribbing about holding their nose and voting for McCain, as if they’re doing others a favour.

WHAT THE FREAKING HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU?

If you’re giving up right now with two days to go, shame on you! You don’t deserve to be a pimple on George Washington’s behind!

And then I see people like ManlyRash, rallying the troops, so to speak. I cannot estimate the effect hotair has on the elections – nobody can, but understand this. The effect is very much there. I’ve learned more about Politics from this site (and Captain’s Quarters before that) than from all the major newspapers combined. And if you’re affecting my opinion all the way here in India, think of the effect you guys are having in your own country.

Don’t give up hope. Don’t sit idle in despair. Get up, get up, get up and fight with the old bastard. He’s suffered boatloads for you all. Do this to respect his sacrifice. Do this to respect those 5 years of freedom he gave up to fight for yours. I would be proud to vote for a man like him.

I’m going to repeat what ManlyRash has been saying for ages now – McCain’s going to win, and win big! Get off your butts and drag him across the line. Play your part in saving the world’s soul.

Jester on November 3, 2008 at 1:29 AM

Whatever. As much as I have a natural tendency to cheer for the underdog, McCain voted for the bailout. I have no reason to think that McCain is going to support anything that I support. I think he Supreme Court picks will be Souterish.

The GOP has to do more to win my vote than come up with somebody who simply isn’t Obama.

I am voting third party.

angelat0763 on November 3, 2008 at 7:00 AM

CBS is a propaganda tool for the left, nothing more nothing else. Anyone who would give them credibility is defying a realistic perception of reality. Is it just a coincuidence Dan Rather, who they had to dismiss because of fabricating evidence to unseat a presidential cndidate, used their national broadcast to present a daily dose of lies as actual news? Liars beget liars. It is a fact.

volsense on November 3, 2008 at 8:23 AM