Zogby: McCain up 1

posted at 12:18 am on November 1, 2008 by Ed Morrissey

Right now, it’s only on Drudge, and … well, it’s Zogby.  Still, it’s going in the direction we all believed the race was heading:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error… McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all…

This may get pretty interesting.  We’ll watch the other tracking polls, which have bounced all over the place the last few days.  By Monday, we’ll get a better sense … or we’ll all be drinking heavily.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

What we have to do is to do our best to tell those few still remaining who are deciding whether to drink or not to not drink Obama’s brew and to try to wake up as many of those who’ve passed out as possible before it’s too late. – Matt Helm on November 1, 2008 at 9:51 AM

I have a better idea: let’s videotape Obama screwing the ones who passed out and then put it on Youtube.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:00 AM

’ve been feeling this lately, too. Is everybody doing this? I’m so naive, I don’t know why they would, if they may turn out to be so wrong.

Moxie on November 1, 2008 at 9:54 AM

They’ve all been bought and paid for. They’ll keep the margins close enough that should McCain win, they can say to potential customers that even with the many weird variables of this election cycle, we got it close, while at the same time getting their paychecks from Obama. Having said that, I’ll admit to some slight surprise that Zogby released the Friday polling showing McCain ahead for that day–granted it’s a one day snapshot, and I’m wondering if that was really intended to get out or if it slipped out.

Matt Helm on November 1, 2008 at 10:00 AM

Last post on the last page. I hate ehen that happens. Here it is again:

People seem to like Rasmussen, but I get a serious hink when he speaks. I think he’s cookin’ the books on this one. – anniekc on November 1, 2008 at 9:22 AM

Not so much cooking the books as manipulating the sampling demographics. The polling organizations – at least the serious ones – are in business to make money and if they are proven wrong consistently, their reputations suffer. Then again, there are internal polls and public polls.

The internals are where the real money is and it’s entirely conceivable that these characters are providing accurate internals to the campaigns and less-than-accurate data for public consumption for a very hefty sum of money.

For example, the Obama campaign, swimming in cash, could very easily pay off pollsters to make it appear that Obama is far ahead of McCain in order to depress Republican turnout.

It’s a dangerous game of chicken because at some point they are going to collide with the brick wall of the ultimate poll – election day.

The question, therefore, is when one of them will flinch and be the first to accurately reflect in the public polls what is being reported in the internal polls.

It would appear that Zogby – who has a pro-Democrat bias – was the first to flinch.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:02 AM

Well put Rash. It’s like Rush says, the pollsters manipulate data during the campaign but JUST BEFORE election day they have to give accurate data because it’s their bread and butter. “The polls tightening” really means we’re not lying as much as we did earlier.

Mojave Mark on November 1, 2008 at 10:03 AM

Guys, we can’t just WIN, we have to CRUSH them, we have to DEMORALIZE them, we must RUB SALT IN THE WOUNDS, then we have to ANNIHILATE them.

[sarcastic rip off of a Kos lecture to his flying monkeys a couple of weeks ago].

Actually, we’ll just keep on being Americans when we win. We’ll give blood when there’s a national disaster, we’ll pray for others. We’ll go to work every morning to support our co-workers and our families.

Just Americans. No utopia here. Nothing to smash or destroy. No one to get even with.

Maybe THIS is why the Obama Ideology that flashed radiant colors like autumn leaves, now lies cold and wet on the ground, a brief sensory thrill, but now a chore, something to be swept away?

jeff_from_mpls on November 1, 2008 at 10:03 AM

“The polls tightening” really means we’re not lying as much as we did earlier. – Mojave Mark on November 1, 2008 at 10:03 AM

The hyper-accurate polling data can be found in the internals that each campaign receives and upon which each campaign bases its tactics. If you look at Obama’s campaign trail in the past few days you can see that his internals are not the harbingers of good news that the public polls seem to indicate. He will be in Iowa on Monday. Not a good sign at all.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:06 AM

I have a better idea: let’s videotape Obama screwing the ones who passed out and then put it on Youtube.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:00 AM

Come on Manly Michelle wouldn’t let 0B0mber Screwthese passed out folks it wouldn’t halp her children, put a picture of him and Michelle picking their wallet, a pic worth a thousand words!

dhunter on November 1, 2008 at 10:07 AM

Nothing to smash or destroy. No one to get even with.- jeff_from_mpls on November 1, 2008 at 10:03 AM

Destroy socialism. Destroy the welfare state. Destroy liberalism.

As for getting even…Preening Peggy, Catty Kathy and their ilk have a reckoning waiting for them after McCain wins.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:08 AM

Come on Manly Michelle wouldn’t let 0B0mber Screwthese passed out folks – dhunter on November 1, 2008 at 10:07 AM

At least not until after she fetches the strap-on from the dresser drawer.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:10 AM

The hyper-accurate polling data can be found in the internals that each campaign receives and upon which each campaign bases its tactics. If you look at Obama’s campaign trail in the past few days you can see that his internals are not the harbingers of good news that the public polls seem to indicate. He will be in Iowa on Monday. Not a good sign at all.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:06 AM

So I recommend that we preface every action Obama takes for the next 72 hours by the words:

“Obama’s internal polling is causing him to…”

Examples:

Obama’s internal polling is causing him to play the race card more aggressively.

Obama’s internal polling is causing him to go back and secure Iowa which was supposed to be in the bag for him.

Obama’s internal polling is causing him to appear side by side with Bill Clinton whom he loathes.

Etc. etc.

jeff_from_mpls on November 1, 2008 at 10:10 AM

jeff_from_mpls on November 1, 2008 at 10:10 AM

That’s about it. As you can see from his actions in the past few days, he is in full-blown panic mode. He knows he is going to lose this election.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:13 AM

I thought I just heard Chris Wallace say the 0B0mber is going on his show tonight.

Must be panic time if true, Wallace said either 0B0mber or one of his henchmen, Axelrude?

dhunter on November 1, 2008 at 10:15 AM

The recent polling trends are beginning to panic the mainstream media. The fact is that McCain has been gaining all week and will continue his surge right through Election Day. The commercial media and their garbage polls have been bent on creating an atmosphere of hopelessness among McCain voters by publishing polls that are putrid mathematical garbage. Now, when the polls begin to favor McCain the predictable mainstream media decides to question their validity. Don’t fall for it people . . . their deception plan is beginning to crumble.

rplat on November 1, 2008 at 10:16 AM

I heard that a GOP pac is saturating the media this weekend with Mr. Obama’s anarchist associations, focusing on the Rev. Wright.

No no no, not God bless America, God DAMN America!

Obama 2008? No.

jeff_from_mpls on November 1, 2008 at 10:18 AM

Momentum.

There were 8 combat deaths in Iraq in October, the same as July.

Given the incompetence and unprofessionalism of the MSM, what are the odds that the majority of voters will know these facts before they vote on Tuesday?

Basilsbest on November 1, 2008 at 10:21 AM

The McCain Surge is beginning, folks. Become part of it and part of history. Contact your family, friends and neighbors over the next three days and make sure they vote for McCain. Offer to bring people to the polls to vote.

Remember: friends don’t let friends vote for Obama.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:24 AM

What about the state polls? I don’t see how McCain can win if he loses Florida and Virginia … and McCain really needs PA too to make up for what is looking like a loss of Colorado and Nevada.

Any hope he can maintain the Bush Red States and maybe pick up PA in the process?

God I hope so.

HondaV65 on November 1, 2008 at 10:30 AM

Ed

If the polls are skewed in the first place so the media can keep schilling for Obama why is this a hic up? They are starting perhaps to reflect some reality? Just sayin if McCain was ahead the Biased Media isn’t going to tell anyone about it…would they, unless they absolutely had to because the margin is just getting to big to hide? Who knows? I don’t want to ponder, what the corrupt MSM is doing, trying to throw an AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL election, to a bunch of Socialist wanna bes, that is what Progressives are after all.

Dr Evil on November 1, 2008 at 10:31 AM

The other night, Hannity displayed a copy of Bill Ayers’ book, and showed the dedication page where it could be seen that Ayers apparently dedicated the book to Sirhan Sirhan, the man who killed RFK.

Camelot?

Uh uh. This is something very different than Camelot.

jeff_from_mpls on November 1, 2008 at 10:32 AM

What about the state polls? I don’t see how McCain can win if he loses Florida and Virginia … and McCain really needs PA too to make up for what is looking like a loss of Colorado and Nevada. Any hope he can maintain the Bush Red States and maybe pick up PA in the process? – HondaV65 on November 1, 2008 at 10:30 AM

McCain will not only pick up the states he needs to win, he will pick up states the pundits never dreamed he’d pick up. This election will stun everybody.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:57 AM

Surge strategy!

CliffHanger on November 1, 2008 at 11:04 AM

Top of the morning all…

Manly, I see you’re out doing the Lord’s work. Excellent.

Yahoo News leads with the following AP story this morning:

AP – That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he’s a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don’t ask, and don’t necessarily count on him to vote next week, either.

Apparently you are grouchy and are not going to vote. Is this true?

Also, do Dave and crrr6 and sheetrock and the other girls work on the weekend?

JiangxiDad on November 1, 2008 at 11:05 AM

Then again, the new Zogby poll may be just a wake up call for all dead democrats to wake up and vote.

katablog.com on November 1, 2008 at 11:06 AM

McCain will not only pick up the states he needs to win, he will pick up states the pundits never dreamed he’d pick up. This election will stun everybody.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:57 AM

Sigh…and then my Dad could really rest in peace.

I love to read your posts, but I get superstitious. Like I didn’t want to say outloud “we could win the World Series” and now I sit here in the Philly suburbs going “yeah”.

But I’m still nauseous.

Moxie on November 1, 2008 at 11:21 AM

since youth aren’t turning out in record numbers, wonder if zogby just adjusted his weighting to reflect that

jp on November 1, 2008 at 11:31 AM

I love to read your posts, but I get superstitious. Like I didn’t want to say outloud “we could win the World Series” and now I sit here in the Philly suburbs going “yeah”.

But I’m still nauseous. – Moxie on November 1, 2008 at 11:21 AM

Take two Dramamines with a glass of ice water, read a few more of my posts and then get back to me later today.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:53 AM

since youth aren’t turning out in record numbers, wonder if zogby just adjusted his weighting to reflect that – jp on November 1, 2008 at 11:31 AM

Not sure. But I can tell you this: on election day you will be bombarded with exit polls predicting an Obama landslide. Get ready for it.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:54 AM

http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-voter-emotions

AP poll shows Obama backers gleeful, McCain’s glum
By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON (AP) — That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he’s a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don’t ask, and don’t necessarily count on him to vote on Tuesday, either.

Turn up and vote guys, Obama supporters think they have this in the bag. We’re going to show up in bigger numbers and win.

El_Terrible on November 1, 2008 at 12:12 PM

Maybe THIS is why the Obama Ideology that flashed radiant colors like autumn leaves, now lies cold and wet on the ground, a brief sensory thrill, but now a chore, something to be swept away?

jeff_from_mpls on November 1, 2008 at 10:03 AM

Why Jeff, you’re a poet.

mikeyboss on November 1, 2008 at 12:32 PM

Momentum?

JOE-mentum.

I’ve got a liberal acquaintance who keeps saying that the fiasco (for Obama, that is) that has been Joe the Plumber is inconsequential and that the socialism message isn’t reaching voters.

I firmly disagree. The economy basically is Obama’s ENTIRE strategy at this point, and with that one stupid answer of his, he undercut it deeply. And this is why we’ve even seen polls this past week that have shown McCain polling higher than Barack on the economy issue.

If Obama loses – a possibility I find quite distinct – than you can trace it all back to that moment, when a (dirty, corrupt) politician had a moment of real honesty and actually gave a real answer.

Vyce on November 1, 2008 at 1:20 PM

Take two Dramamines with a glass of ice water, read a few more of my posts and then get back to me later today.

ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:53 AM

Manly, I am not engaging in hyperbole when I say that you are one of the FEW bright spots on this website. You actually make a site that has so deeply descended into Eeyoreism bearable.

If McCain wins, and you’re ever in D.C., drop me a line. I’ll buy you the beverage of your choice, adult or otherwise. Least I could do for someone who provided me with optimism instead of just more doom & gloom BS.

Vyce on November 1, 2008 at 1:23 PM

ok, I am seeing eeyore and eeyorism mentioned on blogs lately. WHAT is that referencing? I guess I missed something.

karenhasfreedom on November 1, 2008 at 1:34 PM

ok, I am seeing eeyore and eeyorism mentioned on blogs lately. WHAT is that referencing? I guess I missed something.

karenhasfreedom on November 1, 2008 at 1:34 PM

The whiny, depressed, gloomy gus donkey from Whinnie the Poo.

JiangxiDad on November 1, 2008 at 1:47 PM

If McCain wins, and you’re ever in D.C., drop me a line. I’ll buy you the beverage of your choice, adult or otherwise. Least I could do for someone who provided me with optimism instead of just more doom & gloom BS.

Vyce on November 1, 2008 at 1:23 PM

Hear hear. If Megan Kelly is busy, Manly can be McCain’s press secretary. And I don’t think he should ever have to pay for a drink again.

JiangxiDad on November 1, 2008 at 1:50 PM

If Obama wins, I will drink with you.

Me too, and I don’t drink.

:)

Bob’s Kid on November 1, 2008 at 12:38 AM

I don’t drink either, but I’ve already stocked up on wine. I’ll either toast to victory, or drink to forget. Either way, I’ll probably be puking my guts out on Wednesday. Meanwhile, encouraged by the Battle of Lepanto, I continue to pray.

BitterClinger on November 1, 2008 at 1:58 PM

I think I have found the media theme. Pretend Obama is up, watch him lose the real vote, call the population racist, and mourn the punishment of the country by having McCain as president. ‘If only you had nominated Hillary, you would not be in this mess’. ‘You can fix that in 2012, you know…’

Vashta.Nerada on November 1, 2008 at 2:08 PM

So do I or do I not make my first gun purchase ever tomorrow?

Because if we’re going to have a anti-American, gun grabbing Marxist in the White House in January, I’ll want to be prepared when the Democrat Congress and some far left judge interpret the Second Amendment as being a collective, rather than an individual right.

On the other hand, if McCain does win, I guess I’ll need to be prepared for the inevitable riots we’re told will ensue.

Glock .45 it is. Praise God and pass the ammo.

NoDonkey on November 1, 2008 at 2:10 PM

I was at Pima County (AZ) GOP headquarters yesterday. The place was filled to the brim with volunteers making phone calls. People were coming in looking for McCain signs and bumper stickers and they were all out! The enthusiasm and energy are strong! I think we have real McMentum!

Conquistadora on November 1, 2008 at 2:32 PM

Lets all hope that McCain can pull this out.

If not, 2012 will be too late.

-Dave

Dave R. on November 1, 2008 at 5:00 PM

You all need to listen to the link that Marsh on November 1, 2008 at 12:17 PM provided.

Yeah I know, stupid audio file download is 5 mb but it’s worth it.

Mcguyver on November 1, 2008 at 5:24 PM

battleoflepanto1571 on November 1, 2008 at 1:19 AM

I saw a sign in upstate New York today that just warmed my heart:

“Vote for John and Sarah – Support the Troops”

Too bad NY will go heavily for BO.

muggedbyreality on November 1, 2008 at 6:05 PM

Hey wait a minute! Eyeorepundit says its Obama +10

james23 on November 1, 2008 at 10:27 PM

People seem to like Rasmussen, but I get a serious hink when he speaks. I think he’s cookin’ the books on this one. – anniekc on November 1, 2008 at 9:22 AM
Not so much cooking the books as manipulating the sampling demographics. The polling organizations – at least the serious ones – are in business to make money and if they are proven wrong consistently, their reputations suffer. Then again, there are internal polls and public polls.

I remember last cycle around, reading about Scott Rasmussens ties into the Democrat party. There is certainly some good reasons to question his objectivity.

seanrobins on November 1, 2008 at 11:46 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3