Gallup: Obama now leads by 10 among both traditional and “expanded” likely voters
posted at 3:00 pm on November 1, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Zog says McCain +1, Gallup says Obama +10, and Rasmussen splits the difference. Whatever happens, someone’s getting their face rubbed in a pile of warm shinola on Wednesday morning. Nate Silver thinks he knows which one it’ll be. We’ll do more of this on Monday, but here’s CNN’s interactive electoral vote feature in case you want to try mapping out scenarios. As things stand, McCain has to take all six toss-up states plus Pennsylvania plus one other state to win.
Let’s enjoy the left’s suffering now, while we can.
“Look, I have this sense of impending doom; we’ve had a couple of elections stolen already,” Mr. Downs said. “The only thing worse than losing is to think that you’re going to win and then lose.”
He considers that prospect and mutters, almost involuntarily, “Oh, God.”…
Ms. Kuhlman shakes her head and says, “If he doesn’t get this, I’ll be crying so hard.”
A young woman, Shana Rosen, walks by. She is from Denver and said she had told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado. Ask Lucy Slurzberg, an Upper West Side psychotherapist, how many of her liberal patients speak of their electoral fears during their sessions, and she answers: “Oh, only about 90 percent of them.”…
For many liberals, the chance to elect Mr. Obama, who would be the nation’s first black president, gives the United States a second chance to walk across the stage of world history. (Which also makes the possibility of his loss unspeakably more depressing; given his present lead in every poll, many liberals fear that race will explain any defeat.)
I offer you your optimistic metaphor of the day. No explanation necessary.
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About g-ddamned time you did something around here other than brag about your cheerleader outfit.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 9:52 PM
Gotta go soak my weary bones…be right back.
Don’t start the riot without me.
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 9:52 PM
check
and another gun never hurts…
right4life on November 1, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Don’t get too relaxed, Sweet Thang. You are needed here.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 9:53 PM
Truer words were never written.
Bradky on November 1, 2008 at 9:54 PM
The difference between you and me, of course, is that I admit it. In your case, it is assumed.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 9:57 PM
This will cheer people up
Obama is getting few religeous value voters than Kerry did in 2004.
William Amos on November 1, 2008 at 10:01 PM
Barry is an even bigger fraud than Jean Francois. Keep up the good work, William. You are among the best and the brightest. Make it happen.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:04 PM
Well we all know how accurate both Zogby and Gallup were in picking President Kerry’s victory.
Jdripper on November 1, 2008 at 10:06 PM
In the spirit of our forefathers, we resist. We resist any leader who would be content to watch America decline in a purported pursuit of fairness, who, even as he is aspiring to lead this land, would absorb himself in a book entitled “The Post-American World,” which describes without regret America’s demise. We resist any leader who would view Europeans who disdain Americans as better friends than his own people, who would seek to silence dissent through so-called “truth-squads” and attempt to control thought through lies and deception.
In the spirit of our forefathers, WE RESIST. LET’S ROLL!!!!
capitalist piglet on November 1, 2008 at 10:06 PM
When I read fivethirtyeight.com, Gallup was rated as one of the worst pollsters surviving soley on name recognition alone. Remeber Dewey/Truman? Yeah, that was Gallup that called that.
SouthernGent on November 1, 2008 at 10:07 PM
Polls smolls.
Obama is too left wing to be electable in a national election. The only poll that matters in 3 days. McCain wins by 10 states.
Hog Wild on November 1, 2008 at 10:09 PM
.
I can only add: narcissistic, nauseatingly and baldly ambitious, American-hating liar, fraud and cheat, who will say or do anything to hide his core beliefs, his closest friends and associates, his radical, Marxist ideology, and his commitment to undermine the Constitution, the freedoms and institutions of our country.
Obama is trying to sweet-talk the American babe into the Marxist bed, and she’s not buying his pitch.
After the papers were turfed off the plane, I have the sense that the MSM is turning on this creep, finally. Better late than never.
The clothes have no emperor.
shaken on November 1, 2008 at 10:09 PM
Fight with me. Fight with me.
Fight for what’s right for our country.
Fight for the ideals and character of a free people.
Fight for our children’s future.
Fight for justice and opportunity for all.
Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.
Stand up for each other; for beautiful, blessed, bountiful America.
Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable here. We’re Americans, and we never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 10:10 PM
Geez, I am watching the Texas-Texas Tech game and they just had a Charles Gibson election piece. By watching that two minutes, I came away with the impression that it is over for McCain. However, I also have a brain and I have realized for years now how the MSM is so overly biased and they are doing all they can to elect the liberal as they do every election year. We are going to win this. We have to.
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 10:13 PM
ManlyRash and HornetSting: Could you book a room please? Sheesh… :p
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Look, I made 150+ calls today in PA, OH, and CO on johnmccain.com and I spoke to 10 real-life people. Otherwise I had to leave messages on an answering machine. One nice guy in CO said, “Oh, that’s nice, but I’m not going to tell you. I’ve probably gotten 100 calls from people asking and I’m just not saying.” NO ONE IS ANSWERING THE PHONE IN SWING STATES! The guy that said “that’s nice,” he was truly a nice man. Very cordial. I sincerely believe that had he been an Obama supporter, he would have just hung up. At the very least he wouldn’t have said “that’s nice.” I believe the McCain people are the ones not talkin’. I believe the Obama supporters wouldn’t keep their secret to a McCain person to save their lives!
Oink on November 1, 2008 at 10:13 PM
Shouldn’t you be out getting fitted for your brown shirt?
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 10:15 PM
Wanna join us? I’ve always had a thing for British birds…
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:16 PM
Stand up and fight. Send out emails. Make phone calls. Make it happen, CP!!
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:17 PM
We’re both married. So, no.
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 10:18 PM
God bless you. Keep fighting! You are on our front lines. You are among our best and our brightest. Make it happen.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:19 PM
Gee, thanks. *sigh* Little Miss farking Virtuous. *sigh*
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:21 PM
Nah…my (shriveled black) heart belongs to Boehner. This week anyway…
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 10:21 PM
Thank you sir!
Oink on November 1, 2008 at 10:22 PM
but…but I love Black Pudding. God save the Queen! Hello? Anybody there?
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:25 PM
The only poll that counts is the ballot poll. That one is still uncounted.
**Psst. Me and my family early voted and McCain is up by four!**
Tennman on November 1, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Sorry Manly, my husband carries a gun for a living.
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 10:26 PM
Tennman, I’m heading out to Memphis on Nov. 17. S/b interesting to be in the area for the week. Best,
Entelechy on November 1, 2008 at 10:28 PM
No, thank YOU, sir/madam. You are a latter day patriot. Please, please keep fighting. This is not over until Bambi concedes.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:28 PM
You have a sister? (he asked hopefully)
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:29 PM
If that is what you wish to believe.
What I do know to be true is that for the first time in my 50 years on this earth I contributed to a campaign. Whose? you ask – That would be McCain-Palin.
Sweet Kaballah what was I thinking?
Bradky on November 1, 2008 at 10:31 PM
Nope. Sorry. Only a little brother and Lord willing, he will soon also be carrying a gun.
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 10:32 PM
Quit stealing James Earl Jones’ lines.
Bradky on November 1, 2008 at 10:33 PM
Then you are smarter than you look. Good show, Brad.
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Home sick (hangover) and watching football.
Tech just scored off an int.
28-13 3q if anyone cares.
cgoode777 on November 1, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Stop being defeatists. That’s an order, troopers. >:(
R. Waher on November 1, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Black pudding? Like haggis and snails — best enjoyed in their absence. God save the Queen alright. From her idiot dauphin of a son to her foot-in-mouth idiot of a husband, mostly.
Americans don’t seem to appreciate how much of a *direct* democracy they have, compared to the once- or twice- removed oligarchies that we have in Europe. That’s why I have faith in the states’ rights — even Obama won’t be able to wear them down before we get rid of him. Which we won’t have to do, since he won’t be elected.
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 10:35 PM
I had heard him say it before, but Drudge has the YouTube blurb of Obama vowing to create a civilian national security force funded equally with our military. Something is really off the track and dreadfully frightening about this. These people are already in play with the dirt digging of Palin and Joe the Plumber by press and government workers. Our press should be literally strung up in the streetsd if they let him carry this thing off because they willfully deglected their duty to vet him. I have my 2nd amendments in various places around the house.
wepeople on November 1, 2008 at 10:38 PM
29-13 and I care!
: )
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 10:38 PM
What part of Texas are you from?
Texas Tech Alum here. Central Texas.
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 10:39 PM
Quit trying to act normal.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:40 PM
What I do know to be true is that for the first time in my 50 years on this earth I contributed to a campaign. Whose? you ask – That would be McCain-Palin.
You’re a good man sir.
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 10:41 PM
Gallup is a pile of it! Go to this link and DJ Drummond shreds this poll. It will help you sleep better.
http://wizbangblog.com/content/2008/11/01/funky-gallup.php
sheriff246 on November 1, 2008 at 10:44 PM
OOOOOOOf. Then I’d be a c*nt if I mentioned Spotted Dick. Right then…cheerio.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:44 PM
Then stand up and fight for your republic. Fight for John McCain. Fight for our survival. Make it happen.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:45 PM
this is going to either be
(1) my favorite thread to visit Tuesday night or
(2) the thread I won’t be anywhere around Tuesday night.
Right now I am leaning heavily to #1 as the wingnuts draw heavily from the pollster who presidicted a day before the 2004 election that John Kerry would capture over 300 EVs.
McCain/Palin … has had to be painful for you guys to support and push through this election year. Worst ticket for the GOP since I started voting by far!
Monkei on November 1, 2008 at 10:46 PM
Depends on whose organ you’re talking about…
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 10:47 PM
Oh look! Everyone’s favorite simian troll. Dance for us, you little idiot monkei. Dance.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:48 PM
cgoode777 on November 1, 2008 at 10:35 PM
Are you a Texas transplant?
Husband went to Texas Tech and UT.
Pulling for Tech since it’s his undergrad school.
We’re from Texas and are on loan to Oklahoma for now. Homesick as well.
tru2tx on November 1, 2008 at 10:49 PM
Brittanic tease.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:49 PM
Couldn’t agree more with you, Fortunata. Visiting Australia I was saddest to see how unfree they are until they get rid of the commonwealth. Same with Canada. It’s really incredible that kings and queens exist anywhere in Europe, America and Australia in this day and age.
Entelechy on November 1, 2008 at 10:49 PM
The day Britain rids herself of the monarchy is the day the world ends. God save the Queen.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 10:51 PM
It’s Get Out The Vote time people! Go to a victroy center and help!!
Bullhead on November 1, 2008 at 10:53 PM
No wonder I’ve always like you.
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 10:53 PM
Happy 18th birthday
Bradky on November 1, 2008 at 10:54 PM
Great! I give you a toast then, for Republicans and republicans: bugger the Queen and all who sail in her!!!
Pip Pip!!!
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 10:54 PM
Also, thanks for the laughs.
But on a very serious note, thanks for helping to save our republic.
Entelechy on November 1, 2008 at 10:55 PM
Bradky, thanks for also trying to save the republic.
Entelechy on November 1, 2008 at 10:56 PM
Fortunata, love your country of origin, to visit of course, and the British humor.
Two examples which come to mind, from Basingstoke:
- I mentioned on a business trip that I like to watch Keeping up Appearances, especially that I like Anslow, and Mr. Bean. They replied “We have no Anslows in England”.
- When I asked a British colleague, who raises bees, if he’d read a bunch of books on topic he replied “yes, but the bloody bees haven’t”.
Entelechy on November 1, 2008 at 11:02 PM
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 10:53 PM
*fist bump and thanks*
Looks like Tech broke UT’s winning streak.
If it has to happen, at least it wasn’t by OU.
tru2tx on November 1, 2008 at 11:03 PM
Yes, the humour is great. See if you can find DVDs of “The Fast Show” and “Little Britain”. The latter must be the UK version, not the recent one made in USA, which is crap. Both are still funny and more surreal than anything you’ll find on TV here, even though they really peaked in the late 90s. And completely British, very knowing, sly humour.
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 11:07 PM
I hope so. I am a bit nervous though!
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 11:10 PM
You must hear this ALL THE TIME, but I grew up watching Faulty Towers. LOVE IT!
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 11:10 PM
Perish the thought. Trouble is, you think like a Brit. And Brits, strangely enough, have no appreciation of their history. You probably don’t even believe in the return of Arthur.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:13 PM
Me too!! Although you must have heard that it was based on real experiences that the writers had at British country hotels — true to life, that’s what made it funny to us Brits.
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 11:13 PM
Yeah…Bradky’s a real help to the cause./
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:14 PM
I grew up reading Arthurian romances and cried (I think) while reading The Once and Future King. Of course I believe.
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 11:15 PM
I mentioned Faulty Towers to my husband and he wants to watch them now. We didn’t know they were based on true stories. I used to watch them on Saturday afternoons with my parents..Good memories. My favorite episode was with the woman that refused to use her hearing aid.
HornetSting on November 1, 2008 at 11:20 PM
Bullshit. I believe, and I’m not even a Brit.
When I was in Britain 4 years ago I took a walk through an old town and spotted a building on which there was a plaque stating that Henry VIII and Catherine of Aragon stayed in that house. I purposely touched the brick walls to connect with history.
My Brit hosts looked at me like I was nuts. I tried to explain to them that the history of my nation dwelt in those walls centuries before George Washintgton was born.
Imagine their expressions when I explained that, yes, Excalibur will rise and a new king will return. They looked at me like I was nuts. F*cking stupid Brits.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:23 PM
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 11:10 PM
I need to get my eyes examined…. when I said that about Tech, I was looking at the 30 second timer… :-/
Sheesh.
tru2tx on November 1, 2008 at 11:23 PM
I understand more than you think. Partly because, like you, I would have been seen as an “immigrant” just acting out if I attempted anything like that. Even though I moved to Britain when I was 5, have no earlier memories, and no allegiances to anywhere else. Also, because the leftish multi-culti indoctrination of the British from school to university, BBC to EU is complete. Most are embarrassed but strangely tender of their past, but don’t know how to move past the bad bits without becoming “jingoistic”. Which, as we all know, is a code-word for racist.
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 11:30 PM
OT: Mac is on SNL
tru2tx on November 1, 2008 at 11:35 PM
Thanks.
We got Pumas, we got the base, if we can get enough indies, W.
Spirit of 1776 on November 1, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Do you really? I truly believe the sword will rise again. I truly believe Britain must have a monarchy – even though we Americans fought to free ourselves from that monarchy. There is a bond between us and our British cousins that is ineffable and inexplicable and a tradition that must be maintained if there is to be any sanity in this world.
A mother can have many children…but a child can have only one mother. Do you understand what I am saying?
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:38 PM
Not really. There’s something attractive in the idea that a monarch, because he is decided before he’s even born, is free of the corrupting influences and weaselly lobbyists that infect our elected politicians. In practice, however, history provides us with plenty of examples of lousy princes.
On a political note: the concept of Liberty is a pretty much Anglo-saxon idea. Continental Europeans don’t really get it, and the rest of the world, even less. So if you’re talking about the idea of a cultural Anglosphere, like Samuel Huntingdon, yes, I would buy that. But it’s a pretty unpopular thesis, for reasons we already know.
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 11:47 PM
Yipes. Carbon are you seeing this??
tru2tx on November 1, 2008 at 11:48 PM
It goes beyond that. But you are neither a native Brit nor a native American; you would not understand.
ManlyRash on November 1, 2008 at 11:50 PM
Sigh. Story of my life with nativists all over the world then. Time for bed, g’night.
Fortunata on November 1, 2008 at 11:53 PM
Texas Tech 39 (7th)
Texas 33 (1st)
Final
Way to go Texas Tech Red Raiders!!!
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Screaming at the top of my lungs! What a finish!
carbon_footprint on November 1, 2008 at 11:57 PM
Sleep tight, luv.
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Is there a web site where true sons of liberty can gather and organize in preparation for the oncoming Socialist coup? We need to act in concert. Organize our votes and such.
ronsfi on November 2, 2008 at 12:19 AM
In a Downerpundit thread?
Not possible.
Dude’s been working on his eulogy for the GOP campaign since January.
Optimism’s The Captain’s gig.
SuperCool on November 2, 2008 at 12:23 AM
Where is that blog? I need some optimism…
JustTruth101 on November 2, 2008 at 12:36 AM
Good. Vote for McCain.
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 12:37 AM
McCain will win. Now go out there and make it happen.
ManlyRash on November 2, 2008 at 12:38 AM
Remember Phelps in Beijing…200 m butterfly…coming from behind when nobody was giving 2 cents…
Ropera on November 2, 2008 at 1:11 AM
This poll oversamples dems…not reliable at all. Yawn.
nazo311 on November 2, 2008 at 1:11 AM
I see Florida again
If as I suspect, McCain and Obama are polling very close with McCain gaining more of the undecided (in the insider’s polls), the DEMs are going to have to play the Florida game again.
The Florida game is to crank out polls for public consumption suggesting their guy is a shoe in, and then scream bloody murder at select precincts when the vote counts do not go their way
Bush won the FLorida election, but the DEMs worked their mantra ‘Selected not Elected’ to devalue any mandate for Bush
Even polls like Gallup are rediculously close for the 51% landslide they are conjuring.
The landslide scenario is needed to scare undecideds from voting at all.
Undecideds are not the most engaged voters to start with. If you can’t win undeideds, you have to talk them out of driving all the way to the polls, whether by incorrectly announcing the polls are already closed, or by announcing a landslide for their guy
Yep, the Florida game has begun. Who knows, maybe they will crank Florida this time too?
Here is the problem: they did it last election. It is getting old.
entagor on November 2, 2008 at 1:12 AM
That statement from Obama has led me to believe it is time I get firearms training and purchase a couple of good longarms and a couple of handguns.
If Obama wins, I may need some advice from you Second Amendment experts.
Let’s win this Tuesday, so we don’t have to win it the HARD way later when Obama will have us cornered and not in as good a position to defend ourselves.
Sapwolf on November 2, 2008 at 1:26 AM
Obama is no Stalin or Castro, or even on the other hand JFK. He is a Bonaparte. A young man convinced of his own rising star. It matters not where it rises, nor where it falls. He rides a wave of destiny. No more dangerous leader can there be for although a righteous monarchy may be the ultimate form of governance, “Righteous” and “Monarchy” seldom meet in the same historical narrative. Indeed if the fatal conceit of Socialism is that “It has not been done by me”, then then that is also the fatal conceit of government through all time. Our only protection (hence the genius of our Forefathers) is to codify our Liberty in LAW! But that leaves us vulnerable to Lawyers. The Priesthood of our time. If only they understand the language of our “Bible” of law, then only they (Lawyers, Judges, etc.) have the power to interpret it and hand down it’s meaning to we the unworthy masses. In this way we live exactly as our medieval forbears, in a world bereft of understanding of the laws with which we are governed. So now we see that “Law” becomes the new religion. The Supreme Court the new Vatican. We follow the same template handed down to us from antiquity. We follow the same patterns and reap the same results.
ronsfi on November 2, 2008 at 1:39 AM
I’m exhausted and disgusted over this garbage in the polls and the press. I don’t know how it has been around the country, but here in Florida (yeah, I know), especially in Central Florida – the lines have been insane. I see some voters excited, and I see some very reserved. And their attitudes have nothing to do with the long wait.
I believe that the polls are wrong – how wrong and in what direction who knows. But I know how Central Florida is trending because I have been seeing it for 2 weeks from the people with the sample ballots in their hands.
I can only hope and pray that it can happen again – but with a 24 hour newscycle, and the aggressive nature of everyone wanting to call it first, who knows.
God help us all.
http://www.eagleton.rutgers.edu/e-gov/e-politicalarchive-1948election.htm
JeffinOrlando on November 2, 2008 at 1:47 AM
Sorry, but that video was a fake.
fred5678 on November 2, 2008 at 2:12 AM
………….. Never give up, never surrender, never say die.
Seven Percent Solution on November 2, 2008 at 2:35 AM
Given Obama’s extreme views on abortion, I don’t see how anyone who values life be it for moral or religious reasons can vote for the guy without being a total hypocrite.
Yakko77 on November 2, 2008 at 2:59 AM
Tall order for just one guy…living in Tidy-Bowl Blue Connecticut at that!
Seriously though, I don’t need convincing. I think he’s going to hold the Bush states and flip at least two Kerry states, Pennsylvania being one of them. Look for PUMAs to have an impact in the caucus states.
One Strawman, going down!
SuperCool on November 2, 2008 at 3:33 AM
Down to the wire in SE Michigan and even now, almost no political signs on lawns for President. People are keeping their mouths shut
For the first time in my life people are afraid to voice their opinions on an election except in the most private circles or anonymously in call in programs
The Democrats have by implication labeled the undecided as racist. Undecideds have not chosen Obama, ergo.
Undecideds have been robbed of the pleasure of making their own choice
There is a reason we have so many undecideds. People wanted a change from Bush but they did not want to change their way of life.
entagor on November 2, 2008 at 3:41 AM
I DO NOT BUY INTO THE LEFTIST PSY OPPS.
AND, I question the sincerity of Allahpundit’s “reverse psychology” in supposedly motivating conservatives with his many negative observations.
Lockstein13 on November 2, 2008 at 6:34 AM
I saw this post on the Gallup poll from DJ Drummond at >a href=”http://www.wizbangblog.com”>Wizbang, there is more but here is a summary:
For these nine states on average, the democrats are early voting at a rate 2.6 points higher than their registration, while republicans are early voting at a rate 3.4 points lower than their registration. Since the early voting currently represents 17% of the anticipated turnout this year, this works out to a total voting advantage by party of 1.02 points. Obviously, if the democrats enjoy a similar +2.6 to -3.4 turnout advantage in actual voting on November 4th, this would inflate their party advantage (assuming democrats support Obama in equal degree that republicans support McCain) by six points, which appears to explain Gallup’s sudden shift: Gallup has decided that the trend in early voting will be reflected in the November 4th turnout, which is a dangerous assumption, for the following reasons:
1. The 6-point advantage for democrats is reported in just 9 states out of 34 which have early voting; there is no clear information on party participation on the other 25 states which have early voting, and these numbers may be significantly different.
2. The record on early voting is too short to establish a statistically valid trend, but even the last two elections have shown significantly different levels of participation in voter turnout by party between early and election-day voting. There is no basis for presuming that early voting turnout will be reflected the same way on November 4.
3. Obama has urged his supporters all year long to vote early, while McCain has not made the same push. A slightly higher percentage of republicans this year than democrats have stated an intention to vote on November 4 rather than early.
4. Voters who participate in early voting will not also be participating in election-day voting. This datum is significant with regard to black voters. Black voters have been shown to be participating in the three states which release that detail, at a rate 6.7 points ahead of registration proportions. While increased participation overall by blacks may produce a modest increase (roughly 1 percent) to Obama’s support, the ceiling level of the black voter demographic necessarily means that black voter participation will decline significantly on November 4. Consequently, even if all other conditions are the same, republican participation on November 4 should be expected to improve measurably.
In conclusion, Gallup is assuming that because some democrats in some states are showing up strong in early voting, that this means a blow-out is coming. In truth the lower-than-expected totals of actual voting, combined with reports that no state so far is reporting blow-out numbers, demonstrates that the election is highly volatile and far from over, and depends as it has all along on the three key components of voter turnout, who wins the independent voter support, and which way the undecideds break. Don’t be fooled, this race is still red hot.
Terrye on November 2, 2008 at 7:17 AM
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